Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[The Dog 44158]

 

Edited July 2, 2022 by The Dog

[Sawbonz 27595]

11 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Does Russia want to fuck with the Flyers?

 

Holy shit did that dude come straight out of the penalty box and flatten a guy who didn’t have the puck?

 

announcer: I didn’t see too much wrong with it 

commentator: a pretty good solid check

[956 Worldwide 34793]

3 hours ago, Sawbonz said:

Holy shit did that dude come straight out of the penalty box and flatten a guy who didn’t have the puck?

 

announcer: I didn’t see too much wrong with it 

commentator: a pretty good solid check

/csb: I’ve been to a number of KHL (the Russian league, widely acknowledged as the best after NHL). I’m not a hockey aficionado and even I can see it’s a different game.  Contact that barely registers in the NHL gets the crowd howling for a penalty. 
 

The Broad Street Bullies in the 1970s? Yeah, that’s about what I’d expect them to do to the Soviets. 

[956 Worldwide 34793]

The Congressional Research Service is an excellent and meticulous organization.  I highly recommend this sobering but illuminating short report on the current status of Ukraine’s military and the challenges they’re facing. 
 

https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12150

[MillerEP 30501]

 

[MillerEP 30501]

Local mass media report on the explosion in Chornobayivka.

 

[dimyh 1874]

1 hour ago, 956 Worldwide said:

The Congressional Research Service is an excellent and meticulous organization.  I highly recommend this sobering but illuminating short report on the current status of Ukraine’s military and the challenges they’re facing. 
 

https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12150

Thanks, pretty fair view of the current struggle. Here is a link to an article by Pomorenko which gives some more details on the action in the Donbass. Hoping that UA can stand firm in Lysychansk and rely on some of the terrain advantages but the Russian push from the south is a concern.

https://kyivindependent.com/national/as-ukraine-withdraws-from-sievierodonetsk-battle-of-donbas-enters-next-phase

[MillerEP 30501]

^Mixed signals

 

[MillerEP 30501]

 

[MillerEP 30501]

 

[MillerEP 30501]

 

[MillerEP 30501]

 

[MillerEP 30501]

 

[MillerEP 30501]

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1543234980372955138?s=20&t=s29TRgeuFYhUJ55YpvZl3A

[atomheartbevo 89816]

Using HIMARS against barracks, HQs, and ammo depots.   Very nice.  Liable to cause a lot of Russian officers to try and stay/sleep further in the rear and may even force them to keep their depots even farther back, which will stress logistics chains. 

[Parliament 14333]

Do the Ukrainians have enough ammo to keep them running?

[atomheartbevo 89816]

 

[atomheartbevo 89816]

3 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Do the Ukrainians have enough ammo to keep them running?

NATO sending a lot more 155mm ammo, plus US is supplying more HIMARS ammo.

and if Russia fears them and starts assuming they are everywhere when they aren’t it’ll be just as effective in some ways.

[atomheartbevo 89816]

I didn’t see this posted earlier, but tweets were loading slow so apologies if it was

[Gatorubet 30321]

18 hours ago, Dilligas said:

Rumor has it there were seminude pics of sweet Nicole a couple years ago. Perhaps those could reappear?

Nude or no nude…there is no “semi”

[grazinhorn 472]

On 7/1/2022 at 2:59 PM, MillerEP said:

 

 

As someone who manages a lot of systems...

[956 Worldwide 34793]

Today Lukashenka issued a statement that Belarus air defenses intercepted attempted Ukrainian missile attacks on Belarus territory. Of course, with no evidence.

This is a significant escalation of rhetoric from him.  If he begins showing photos of successful attacks, it will be a sign that they are going to enter the fight actively. 

[Brisketexan 105425]

5 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Today Lukashenka issued a statement that Belarus air defenses intercepted attempted Ukrainian missile attacks on Belarus territory. Of course, with no evidence.

This is a significant escalation of rhetoric from him.  If he begins showing photos of successful attacks, it will be a sign that they are going to enter the fight actively. 

Yeah, that's not a good sign.  His inconsistent rhetoric the last couple of days -- combined with Ukraine forces actively preparing for attacks from Belarussian forces on their western territories -- is not great.  Ukraine could end up in a two-front, two-opponent war.

That said, Lukashenko can't want to engage his military in a war with an external opponent.  He needs all he can to maintain internal security.  If they 1) leave the homefront unguarded, 2) get weakened by attrition, and/or 3) get their asses kicked hard enough on an ill-advised foreign adventure that they turn on him, he's fucked.  This all speaks to him getting some serious pressure from Putin -- that's my guess, at least.  And if Putin is willing to risk the stability of the regime in Belarus, that's something of a desperation move.

[956 Worldwide 34793]

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

NATO sending a lot more 155mm ammo, plus US is supplying more HIMARS ammo.

and if Russia fears them and starts assuming they are everywhere when they aren’t it’ll be just as effective in some ways.

The issue is that even we are not cut out for a conventional war of this intensity. Not a HIMARS expert but I understand that’s an especially tough system to keep armed.

Our whole deal for the better part of a century has been “let’s not get into a lead-raining contest in Eurasia.” No one ever really contemplated NATO having a fight like this with the Russians so we aren’t built to do it. 

[Brisketexan 105425]

2 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

The issue is that even we are not cut out for a conventional war of this intensity. Not a HIMARS expert but I understand that’s an especially tough system to keep armed.

Our whole deal for the better part of a century has been “let’s not get into a lead-raining contest in Eurasia.” No one ever really contemplated NATO having a fight like this with the Russians so we aren’t built to do it. 

I would think that a big part of it is that OUR strategy is a combined arms strategy.  We'd be using air power and PGMs launched from air platforms, tomahawks, etc. to take out a lot of the targets that UKR is having to hit with HIMARS and 155s.  When you have to use JUST those things, then you burn through them a lot faster.  Again, my hypothesis.

[atomheartbevo 89816]

9 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

No one ever really contemplated NATO having a fight like this with the Russians so we aren’t built to do it. 

Russia isn’t suited for this either, both in terms of not being able to replace hardware, and in terms of demographics.  The fact that they are targeting boys for conscription in the occupied territories, plus getting ammo from Belarus, plus making an example out of the NHL player speaks volumes.

Russia has no allies that can truly keep it in the fight.  This is a feint trying to tie up Ukrainian troops that could be used against Kherson.

If Belarus gets fully involved, that place could blow up internally. 

And I can’t imagine that Russia has the troops to put down Belarus’s opposition. And imagine the optics of Russian soldiers and security forces and Chechens killing Belarus civilians.

Edited July 2, 2022 by atomheartbevo

[Brisketexan 105425]

7 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Russia isn’t suited for this either, both in terms of not being able to replace hardware, and in terms of demographics.  The fact that they are targeting boys for conscription in the occupied territories, plus getting ammo from Belarus, plus making an example out of the NHL player speaks volumes.

Russia has no allies that can truly keep it in the fight.  This is a feint trying to tie up Ukrainian troops that could be used against Kherson.

If Belarus gets fully involved, that place could blow up internally. 

And I can’t imagine that Russia has the troops to put down Belarus’s opposition. And imagine the optics of Russian soldiers and security forces and Chechens killing Belarus civilians.

Which ones?  The ones currently dealing with all they can handle in Ukraine?  Getting Belarus fully involved in this conflict creates a gigantic risk that the Belarussian opposition takes advantage of the chaos and takes out Lukashenko (potentially with the assistance of disgruntled military units that aren't super keen on going to get slaughtered in Ukraine).  If it happens, it's a huge fucking gamble for Putin, because he doesn't have a lot he can do to stop it.  If the opposition gains the upper hand, then you're going to see significant Russian airstrikes on targets in Belarus, because that's about the only tool they've got that's quickly deployable.

[atomheartbevo 89816]

Just now, Brisketexan said:

Which ones?  The ones currently dealing with all they can handle in Ukraine?  Getting Belarus fully involved in this conflict creates a gigantic risk that the Belarussian opposition takes advantage of the chaos and takes out Lukashenko (potentially with the assistance of disgruntled military units that aren't super keen on going to get slaughtered in Ukraine).  If it happens, it's a huge fucking gamble for Putin, because he doesn't have a lot he can do to stop it.  If the opposition gains the upper hand, then you're going to see significant Russian airstrikes on targets in Belarus, because that's about the only tool they've got that's quickly deployable.

Exactly.  Russia can’t fight in two countries.  Indiscriminate air strikes in Belarus won’t go over well with civilians, but will also harden the EU’s/NATO’s resolve even more to rid themselves of everything to do with Russia.

And Belarus has just over 60,000 active troops. If they dip into their reserves to go fight and die in Ukraine, you will see some serious shit.  

But it’s Putin and he’s dumb as hell, so he’s willing to lose the entire game just to score a few points in the second quarter.  

[atomheartbevo 89816]

I feel dumb as hell for ever thinking Putin was smart or savvy.  Paranoid and evil can do a good job of covering up stupidity, but Putin got way the hell out over his skies for the entire world to see.

[Brisketexan 105425]

1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

Exactly.  Russia can’t fight in two countries.  Indiscriminate air strikes in Belarus won’t go over well with civilians, but will also harden the EU’s/NATO’s resolve even more to rid themselves of everything to do with Russia.

And Belarus has just over 60,000 active troops. If they dip into their reserves to go fight and die in Ukraine, you will see some serious shit.  

But it’s Putin and he’s dumb as hell, so he’s willing to lose the entire game just to score a few points in the second quarter.  

I dunno.  He may feel like he's losing the game now, and might as well make a bet on the longshot coming off the bench.  We'll see.  It could be about to get much, much more "interesting" (read: holy fucking shit, this is horribad) soon.

[chainsaw 9878]

We need a plan to cut off Russia's ability to use their own nukes. Such a plan would probably require significant insider help from people Putin has alienated in his own intelligence and military apparatuses. We (US and NATO) would need a very high assurance that the plan won't be foiled before doing anything more than what we've done to support Ukraine.

But let's assume the plan is possible and it will go off without a hitch. I think NATO forces could have Putin deposed inside of 14 days.

[utee94 15868]

Just now, atomheartbevo said:

I feel dumb as hell for ever thinking Putin was smart or savvy.  Paranoid and evil can do a good job of covering up stupidity, but Putin got way the hell out over his skies for the entire world to see.

Yeah, agreed.  I guess it's fairly easy to appear shrewd when you just threaten everyone who opposes you with nuclear annihilation.  

[Deej 76944]

Put some chin pubes on Putin and he's the Russian Billy Liucci. 

[atomheartbevo 89816]

2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I dunno.  He may feel like he's losing the game now, and might as well make a bet on the longshot coming off the bench.  We'll see.  It could be about to get much, much more "interesting" (read: holy fucking shit, this is horribad) soon.

Belarus might have 15,000 actual active duty infantry out of the 60,000 active duty troops.  Might.  There’s a lot of talk that they are far less than what they claim (just like Russia), and that a lot more of their military is focused on internal security than external threats.  

[Deej 76944]

1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

Belarus might have 15,000 actual active duty infantry out of the 60,000 active duty troops.  Might.  There’s a lot of talk that they are far less than what they claim (just like Russia), and that a lot more of their military is focused on internal security than external threats.  

Kill 'em all. 

[chainsaw 9878]

8 minutes ago, Deej said:

Put some chin pubes on Putin and he's the Russian Billy Liucci. 

 

[Brisketexan 105425]

8 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Belarus might have 15,000 actual active duty infantry out of the 60,000 active duty troops.  Might.  There’s a lot of talk that they are far less than what they claim (just like Russia), and that a lot more of their military is focused on internal security than external threats.  

I would suspect those numbers are reasonably close to the truth.  There's no doubt that the Belarussian military is 99% focused on internal security vs. combat vs. mobile combat/invasion of another country.  And I suspect they'd be pretty quickly routed if they tried it.  Leaving them either weak as shit from attrition, and/or pissed off to have been tossed to the wolves by Lukashenko, and thus quite interested in getting him the fuck out of power.

When you depend on the army to hold onto power....sending them off to get blown the fuck up is not a super smart move.

[RDCanecutter 26475]

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

Belarus might have 15,000 actual active duty infantry out of the 60,000 active duty troops.  Might.  There’s a lot of talk that they are far less than what they claim (just like Russia), and that a lot more of their military is focused on internal security than external threats.  

It takes one guy per BMP to drive em in parades.

[Dbeasy 15094]

I talked last week with a guy in Ukraine whose in an undisclosed location. He normally lives in Kyiv. 

He said that friends and relatives still back in Russia are reporting that Putin has completely brainwashed the population with false stories about atrocities being committed by Ukrainians. 

He said a significant chunk of the population, including old grandmothers and normally reasonable people, are calling for barbaric action against Ukrainians because of the false stories. So frustrating. 

[chainsaw 9878]

39 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

I talked last week with a guy in Ukraine whose in an undisclosed location. He normally lives in Kyiv. 

He said that friends and relatives still back in Russia are reporting that Putin has completely brainwashed the population with false stories about atrocities being committed by Ukrainians. 

He said a significant chunk of the population, including old grandmothers and normally reasonable people, are calling for barbaric action against Ukrainians because of the false stories. So frustrating. 

Seems familiar

[atomheartbevo 89816]

56 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

I talked last week with a guy in Ukraine whose in an undisclosed location. He normally lives in Kyiv. 

He said that friends and relatives still back in Russia are reporting that Putin has completely brainwashed the population with false stories about atrocities being committed by Ukrainians. 

He said a significant chunk of the population, including old grandmothers and normally reasonable people, are calling for barbaric action against Ukrainians because of the false stories. So frustrating. 

17 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

Seems familiar

Easy to do if you crack down on Western social media availability, censor Russian social media, and shut down all independent news outlets, and arrest anybody who says anything negative about the war or Putin   

That Russian TV stuff Julia Davis posts is available in every Russian home, and the nutcases report directly to Putin or are in the Duma (Russian version of Congress) so they’ve got credibility and more importantly, they don’t have anybody publicly stating that their nuts.

This all buys Putin breathing room, but I think there are limits.  Where they are, I don’t know, but my guess is full on mobilization of reservists and conscription (which will include yanking military-aged men off the streets).  As has been said many times, Putin will ultimately be a victim of his own propaganda.  His proxies on Russian Channel One keep proclaiming their successes in Ukraine, and when they start yanking men off the streets of Moscow and Saint Petersburg because they’ve burned through the rural areas, there will be hell to pay, because you can’t cover that up.

[atomheartbevo 89816]

For reference, Moscow and Saint Petersburg metro areas have around 26 million people, which is around one out of every five or six people living in those two areas, with a shitload of them being military-aged men, as many youth bail on the rural areas/smaller towns for better jobs and living in those areas.  

He has to target those men at some point, and he has to end the system that allowed so many men to buy their way out of conscription. 

[achooloco 1086]

32 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

His proxies on Russian Channel One keep proclaiming their successes in Ukraine, and when they start yanking men off the streets of Moscow and Saint Petersburg because they’ve burned through the rural areas, there will be hell to pay, because you can’t cover that up.

Totally dumb tangent on my part, but anytime I read “channel one” here, I automatically think of Anderson cooper and Lisa ling. I’m drunk but thanks to all for the months long analysis and info! Fuck Russia, go Ukraine!

[atomheartbevo 89816]

2 minutes ago, achooloco said:

Totally dumb tangent on my part, but anytime I read “channel one” here, I automatically think of Anderson cooper and Lisa ling. I’m drunk but thanks to all for the months long analysis and info! Fuck Russia, go Ukraine!

This is Channel One in all its glory today or last night.  Saddam Hussein’s people, as well as North Korea, never had these production values.

 

[atomheartbevo 89816]

I’ve seen this porno

 

[atomheartbevo 89816]

 

[atomheartbevo 89816]

 

 

[atomheartbevo 89816]

 

[chainsaw 9878]

Just now, atomheartbevo said:

 

If true, we need to curbstomp these dipshits in Moscow.

[Sawbonz 27595]

4 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

3) get their asses kicked hard enough on an ill-advised foreign adventure

Likelihood is 100% on this one