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Posted
4 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

I would suspect those numbers are reasonably close to the truth.  There's no doubt that the Belarussian military is 99% focused on internal security vs. combat vs. mobile combat/invasion of another country.  And I suspect they'd be pretty quickly routed if they tried it.  Leaving them either weak as shit from attrition, and/or pissed off to have been tossed to the wolves by Lukashenko, and thus quite interested in getting him the fuck out of power.

When you depend on the army to hold onto power....sending them off to get blown the fuck up is not a super smart move.

One other aspect is the Belarusians and the Russians in Kaliningrad have to be concerned about their big brother bodyguard being exposed as a weak, schizophrenic bully with no plan. 

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Posted
8 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Belarus might have 15,000 actual active duty infantry out of the 60,000 active duty troops.  Might.  There’s a lot of talk that they are far less than what they claim (just like Russia), and that a lot more of their military is focused on internal security than external threats.  

If Belarus is an imminent threat to/attacks Ukraine, then Poland needs to issue Word-for-Word the same Russian announcement for why it invaded Ukraine in February.  Poland needs to announce that it has been asked by the citizens of Belarus to protect them from Nazis. And that Poland will invade Belarus solely for the purpose of denazification in Belarus, while pledging to respect Russia’s borders. 

Latvia and Lithuania need to say “me too”.    

I can dream anyway. 

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Posted

Putin’s popularity reached its peak in Europe during the migrant crisis of the mid-teens. Not coincidentally, that crisis was a major driver of Brexit and a huge bone of contention within the EU.  The famine and resulting migrant wave is absolutely part of the game plan. 

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Posted

Prime Minister Fiala announces that Czech Republic will take over the air police and defense mission for Slovakia in September. This will allow Slovakia to divest of its MiG fleet (and the Russian techs).  I did a deep dive earlier on what this may mean for Ukraine. 

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Posted
42 minutes ago, flatdawgs said:

So I'm here in Istanbul, and have noticed a few things:

 

Did you ask Kerim Bay’s kids to use the periscope and see what Russia is up to?

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Posted
16 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

Did you ask Kerim Bay’s kids to use the periscope and see what Russia is up to?

I would have, but the cisterns are closed and I couldn't find them.

(they actually are, so now I have to come back again to see them. And find Karim Bey's kids).

Posted

One other thing - the Russian consulate here is barricaded and guarded by some desultory-looking Turkish military cops. The best thing about the consulate, however, is that directly across the street is the "Bayraktar" currency exchange. 

I'm guessing the Russkies go to a different one....

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Posted
11 minutes ago, flatdawgs said:

One other thing - the Russian consulate here is barricaded and guarded by some desultory-looking Turkish military cops. The best thing about the consulate, however, is that directly across the street is the "Bayraktar" currency exchange. 

I'm guessing the Russkies go to a different one....

Hopefully the Turkish approved Saudi one with the bone saws

Posted
2 hours ago, flatdawgs said:

- Some of these Russians are young men of fighting age. They get a little pissy when well-meaning middle-aged Americans ask them if they are on leave from defending the Motherland. Hey, just curious!

Good work, good work.

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Posted
5 hours ago, The Dog said:

 

Video was bugged out for me but found this other copy. Watch to the end, best kind of 4th of July fireworks. Burn Ruskies burn!

 

 

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Posted
11 hours ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

You're asking a forum full of mostly Texans about what'll happen if the heat goes off in extreme cold?

Too soon.

We.... Blame solar and wind power!

Real talk though, @956 Worldwide can probably provide some insight as to what's happening boots on the ground. He and one other surlyite live and work in/around Germany if I recall

Posted
13 hours ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

You're asking a forum full of mostly Texans about what'll happen if the heat goes off in extreme cold?

Too soon.

I should have known better.  Sorry

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