Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[immamac 42852]

10 minutes ago, statsman said:

This is not just about Ukraine and Russia. It is also about China and Taiwan. The west needs to support Ukraine until victory or for as long as they are willing to fight. 

This has nothing to do with China and Taiwan. Nothing. 

[Macanudo 12979]

Um, it does. China is watching to see how long the West will support the little guy.

[Armybrat 40850]

45 minutes ago, Macanudo said:

Um, it does. China is watching to see how long the West will support the little guy.

Correct.

[immamac 42852]

No - they aren't. Russia and China are 2 very very fucking different places and Taiwan and China is a totally fucking different situation that isn't even comparable to Ukraine. 

The US response in Taiwan will not be anything like it was in Ukraine if it is invaded, the economic interests we have there are on a completely different plane of existence by several orders of magnitude. 

 

[Brisketexan 105145]

No - they aren't. Russia and China are 2 very very fucking different places and Taiwan and China is a totally fucking different situation that isn't even comparable to Ukraine. 
The US response in Taiwan will not be anything like it was in Ukraine if it is invaded, the economic interests we have there are on a completely different plane of existence by several orders of magnitude. 
 

This. Owing to the near-total US dependence on the Taiwan semi-conductor industry, a military attack on Taiwan would be a direct attack on essential US strategic interests. We would be in a shooting war with China within 15 minutes, and 90% of their vessels would be at the bottom of the Taiwan Strait within 24 hours.
And China knows this.

[InkaUtexas 25950]

31 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

This. Owing to the near-total US dependence on the Taiwan semi-conductor industry, a military attack on Taiwan would be a direct attack on essential US strategic interests. We would be in a shooting war with China within 15 minutes, and 90% of their vessels would be at the bottom of the Taiwan Strait within 24 hours.
And China knows this.

Just need to sink their amphibious fleet. Not like they could build a bridge. I mean, look at what happened to the Russians for trying to cross rivers. 

[Armybrat 40850]

47 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

This. Owing to the near-total US dependence on the Taiwan semi-conductor industry, a military attack on Taiwan would be a direct attack on essential US strategic interests. We would be in a shooting war with China within 15 minutes, and 90% of their vessels would be at the bottom of the Taiwan Strait within 24 hours.
And China knows this.

 

22 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Just need to sink their amphibious fleet. Not like they could build a bridge. I mean, look at what happened to the Russians for trying to cross rivers. 

That’s why China is watching the US reaction in Ukraine. Especially after we basically sat on our hands when Putin made his first move 9 years ago.

But China would have a near impossible taking Taiwan even if we did the same concerning an invasion across the Formosa Strait. And no chance at all if the 7th Fleet stepped in.
We have been helping Taipei prepare for such a move for 70+ years.

[immamac 42852]

8 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

That’s why China is watching the US reaction in Ukraine. Especially after we basically sat on our hands when Putin made his first move 9 years ago.

But China would have a near impossible taking Taiwan even if we did the same concerning an invasion across the Formosa Strait. And no chance at all if the 7th Fleet stepped in.
We have been helping Taipei prepare for such a move for 70+ years.

Because we essentially don't really give a shit about Ukraine, we mainly just care about Putin being a shithead and wanting Russia to get fucked.

We actually give a shit about Taiwan for pretty obvious reasons I don't need to spell out. They aren't watching our reaction any more than the rest of the world is, they gain nothing strategically from understanding that our weapons are in fact as good as we said they were 2 full generations ago against bullshit soviet equipment.

China's military equipment is nothing like Russias and their capability is far different and geared for different things. There is no angle except for people saying "well all conflict gives people insight hurrr durr" that China is watching what the US does in Ukraine being of any real strategic value in a potential conflict with Taiwan and China. 

[The Dog 44055]

[Armybrat 40850]

Ok.

[Chad Fuck 17683]

18 hours ago, MillerEP said:

^"Missed it" Accidentlyonpurpose?

No way the Turks missed that.  

[cactusflinthead 27598]

Hmm

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock on Sunday reaffirmed Berlin's support for Ukraine in its war against Russia, warning that the conflict "could go on for years."

"Unfortunately, we have to assume that Ukraine will still need new heavy weapons from its friends next summer," she told Bild am Sonntag newspaper.

"Ukraine is also defending our freedom, our peace. And we support them financially and militarily — and for as long as it is necessary. Full stop!" Baerbock said. 

https://www.dw.com/en/russia-ukraine-updates-berlin-will-back-kyiv-for-as-long-as-necessary/a-62953980

This too

German Economy Minister Robert Habeck said that targets set by the government for the filling of gas storage facilities had been reached ahead of schedule, staving off the worst fears of severe gas shortages this winter.

"The reservoirs are filling up quicker than planned," he told German magazine Der Spiegel according to a report published on Sunday.

https://www.dw.com/en/germany-gas-storage-filling-up-faster-than-expected-ahead-of-winter/a-62956111

[statsman 5471]

3 hours ago, immamac said:

This has nothing to do with China and Taiwan. Nothing. 

You do make a compelling argument, Ring Lardner-esque (“Shut up”, he explained) in its persuasiveness. I concede to your point. 
 
Ukraine, a smaller west-leaning nation attacked by a larger, authoritarian neighbor with claims on its autonomy, and needing the support of the west in order to resist, has nothing to do with Taiwan. China is in no way looking at the western response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine for signs of what resistance and response it might receive should it attack its smaller neighbor. 
 
You are right. As you say- “This has nothing to do with China and Taiwan. Nothing.”

 
I humbly thank you for my correction. 

[Chad Fuck 17683]

With all the bridges down across the Dnipro, how is Russia able to sustain it's troops to the north?  Certainly the one pontoon bridge isn't enough.  

Can you logistics folks explain to me how the Russian north of the river will avoid just withering on the vine? 

[atomheartbevo 89674]

14 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

I completely agree with your assessment of Russia’s manpower issues and the structural problems with expanding that pool.  We think of the Red Army in World War II fighting an existential war with allies. That’s not at all similar to Russia today fighting a war of choice with no friends. 

I do think that Russia is going to attempt a run at solution (3).  That’s why all the referendum stuff is already in place. 

Yeah, if Putin pushes his fake referendum through and declares that it’s now Russian territory that Ukraine is attacking, that opens up the door legally within Russia for him to move conscripts into those areas, even if they are just doing rear echelon stuff.  We know, and he knows it won’t stop the war though, this is just about him getting existing conscripts into the area, freeing up more contract troops to defend what has been captured.

As much of a dictator as he basically is, he still has to play some things by the book, and he still can’t mass mobilize without declaring war, and he needs the Russian legislature and Russian people to back him on that, and that doesn’t appear to be happening, else he would have already done it.

So it’s just shuffling conscripts around so he can hold what he’s taken since February.

Gotta give credit to the analysts who have been saying for months that he’d culminate sometime in August.

[956 Worldwide 34715]

3 hours ago, immamac said:

Because we essentially don't really give a shit about Ukraine, we mainly just care about Putin being a shithead and wanting Russia to get fucked.

We actually give a shit about Taiwan for pretty obvious reasons I don't need to spell out. They aren't watching our reaction any more than the rest of the world is, they gain nothing strategically from understanding that our weapons are in fact as good as we said they were 2 full generations ago against bullshit soviet equipment.

China's military equipment is nothing like Russias and their capability is far different and geared for different things. There is no angle except for people saying "well all conflict gives people insight hurrr durr" that China is watching what the US does in Ukraine being of any real strategic value in a potential conflict with Taiwan and China. 

China’s strategic bomber is a license built Russian Tu-16. The majority of China’s fighter fleet is license built Su-27s, MiG-21s, or derivatives thereof. One of China’s two functioning aircraft carriers was laid down in Russia as a Kuznetsov class ship. China operates Kilo-class submarines. China operates air defense systems very similar to S-300s and has bought S-400s. We can keep going….. 
 

Much of China’s equipment is either very similar to Russian equipment or simply IS Russian. That’s changing to be sure, but it’s still true and a lot of that stuff will be fielded for a long time. 

Edited August 28, 2022 by 956 Worldwide

[atomheartbevo 89674]

In regard to Taiwan, China is getting an extremely good lesson in Western weapons versus military hardware designed by Russians.

[atomheartbevo 89674]

6 hours ago, RockyMountainHighHorn said:

TLDR-is there any scenario we send troops to Ukraine or is a missile shootout from us much more likely?
Was at a get together last night and have a conversation with a seemingly smart guy and he brought up an interesting question. If a nuke was dropped by rus or the power plant fails causing a disaster, would we retaliate with nukes or would we actually go over there? Basically we were debating what it would take for us to send troops there, not NATO troops, our RWB superheroes. Is there ever a possibility for that with how it is now or is it pretty clear that it would never happen and just turn into a warhead contest. 

Because of the proximity of NATO countries, and because this is in Ukraine, a non-NATO country, I see NATO doing everything possible to not use nukes.  I think Russia would have to drop nukes directly on NATO countries for that to happen.  And there are tens of millions of people in the major Russian cities that happen to like living, and would get out in the streets against Putin.  And Putin’s oligarchs like being alive.  And we know Putin is paranoid about remaining alive.

NATO knows pretty much the location and makeup of every Russian military unit in Belarus and Ukraine (including Crimea).  I think in the scenario of Russia dropping a nuke, NATO would launch a brief air campaign that would eliminate most Russian hardware and many units,, and NATO would make sure that everybody knows they are only hitting targets within Ukraine and Belarus.  We might even see NATO troops going into the western part of Ukraine, as well as running the top-shelf air defenses we have across Ukraine, but still allowing Ukrainian soldiers to be the offensive force.

We might not hit targets in Belarus, but I could see us putting NATO forces on the Belarus/Ukraine border.  Still, if NATO took out Russian units in Belarus, that might get the Belarusian people to rise up.

I think Turkey closes the Straits to Russia, and that NATO makes the Black Sea a members-only sea.

At this point, China and India would get involved on our side, and Iran shuts the fuck up, both because China doesn’t want this spiraling out of contro and China knows that any country supporting Russia after Russia drops a nuke, will get fully isolated and sanctioned to the level of North Korea and Russia.  China cannot afford that.

[RDCanecutter 26446]

3 hours ago, Chad Fuck said:

With all the bridges down across the Dnipro, how is Russia able to sustain it's troops to the north?  Certainly the one pontoon bridge isn't enough.  

Can you logistics folks explain to me how the Russian north of the river will avoid just withering on the vine? 

Non-logistics guy here. They are stealing whatever they need from the civilians. You'll know when that's about to run out because the civilians will be starving.

[MillerEP 30455]

2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Because of the proximity of NATO countries, and because this is in Ukraine, a non-NATO country, I see NATO doing everything possible to not use nukes.  I think Russia would have to drop nukes directly on NATO countries for that to happen.  And there are tens of millions of people in the major Russian cities that happen to like living, and would get out in the streets against Putin.  And Putin’s oligarchs like being alive.  And we know Putin is paranoid about remaining alive.

NATO knows pretty much the location and makeup of every Russian military unit in Belarus and Ukraine (including Crimea).  I think in the scenario of Russia dropping a nuke, NATO would launch a brief air campaign that would eliminate most Russian hardware and many units,, and NATO would make sure that everybody knows they are only hitting targets within Ukraine and Belarus.  We might even see NATO troops going into the western part of Ukraine, as well as running the top-shelf air defenses we have across Ukraine, but still allowing Ukrainian soldiers to be the offensive force.

We might not hit targets in Belarus, but I could see us putting NATO forces on the Belarus/Ukraine border.  Still, if NATO took out Russian units in Belarus, that might get the Belarusian people to rise up.

I think Turkey closes the Straits to Russia, and that NATO makes the Black Sea a members-only sea.

At this point, China and India would get involved on our side, and Iran shuts the fuck up, both because China doesn’t want this spiraling out of contro and China knows that any country supporting Russia after Russia drops a nuke, will get fully isolated and sanctioned to the level of North Korea and Russia.  China cannot afford that.

This closely matches what I think. Nukes = the West pushing Russia completely out of Ukraine, while bombing of military targets inside Russia to diminish their ability to wage war, while proclaiming LOUDLY that this is not a war against Russians, but against the regime, ala Saddam in Iraq 2003 "You have 48 hours to resign or else we're coming after you." The end goal will be regime change, with an aim at denuclearization. The West won't retaliate with Nukes unless Russia just starts launching them like crazy. No troops will actually set foot in Russia. Once the regime is changed, then maybe peacekeeping forces will be based there to ensure they don't start shit again, that they comply with the denuclearization plan, that they have democratic reforms, and because it's closer to China.

[MillerEP 30455]

 

[MillerEP 30455]

 

[MillerEP 30455]

 

^Lol, this is how they explain that there is dissent inside Russia "They hypnotized her"

[MillerEP 30455]

 

[MillerEP 30455]

 

[MillerEP 30455]

 

[MillerEP 30455]

 

[MillerEP 30455]

 

[Brisketexan 105145]

5 hours ago, cactusflinthead said:

Hmm

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock on Sunday reaffirmed Berlin's support for Ukraine in its war against Russia, warning that the conflict "could go on for years."

"Unfortunately, we have to assume that Ukraine will still need new heavy weapons from its friends next summer," she told Bild am Sonntag newspaper.

"Ukraine is also defending our freedom, our peace. And we support them financially and militarily — and for as long as it is necessary. Full stop!" Baerbock said. 

https://www.dw.com/en/russia-ukraine-updates-berlin-will-back-kyiv-for-as-long-as-necessary/a-62953980

This too

German Economy Minister Robert Habeck said that targets set by the government for the filling of gas storage facilities had been reached ahead of schedule, staving off the worst fears of severe gas shortages this winter.

"The reservoirs are filling up quicker than planned," he told German magazine Der Spiegel according to a report published on Sunday.

https://www.dw.com/en/germany-gas-storage-filling-up-faster-than-expected-ahead-of-winter/a-62956111

Annelena was telling me that just the other night.  Pillow talk and all that.

[MillerEP 30455]

 

[MillerEP 30455]

 

[MillerEP 30455]

 

[MillerEP 30455]

 

[MillerEP 30455]

 

[MillerEP 30455]

 

[Braff Zacklin 13575]

2 hours ago, MillerEP said:

 

Burning a car ... with accelerants? Such wizardry!

If this new-fangled technology ever reaches Ohio, the Midwest and perhaps the entire world is in trouble.

[MillerEP 30455]

 

^This was in Syria

[Chad Fuck 17683]

[/url]  
^This was in Syria

The night time one where you saw the missile launch and then do a u turn into its launch site was fun. Man, that seems like forever ago.

[atomheartbevo 89674]

[atomheartbevo 89674]

  2022, wars, and social media is weird.

 

[atomheartbevo 89674]

[atomheartbevo 89674]

Maybe Russia is looking for tips

 

 

[atomheartbevo 89674]

The Brits love their jokes

[Judge Roybeanbag 11819]

4 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

The Brits love their jokes

Well in fairness, this does appear to be an “emergency situation “.  

[Gengs1 2583]

6 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

It’s a damn shame that Japan cannot produce military hardware like tanks etc to export (their constitution needs to get changed for that).

Would have been awesome to see what their industries could come up with for Ukraine, Toyota engines in a Tank….

[The Dog 44055]

 

[The Dog 44055]

 

[Parliament 14260]

10 minutes ago, Gengs1 said:

It’s a damn shame that Japan cannot produce military hardware like tanks etc to export (their constitution needs to get changed for that).

Would have been awesome to see what their industries could come up with for Ukraine, Toyota engines in a Tank….

A Japanese military-industrial complex would be wicked awesome.  Imagine the electronics they could dream up.

[956 Worldwide 34715]

The Japanese are moving in that direction. They have already announced plans to allow exports of fighters and missiles to select Pacific/European nations plus the U.S.  

[Orange&White 5528]

39 minutes ago, Gengs1 said:

It’s a damn shame that Japan cannot produce military hardware like tanks etc to export (their constitution needs to get changed for that).

Would have been awesome to see what their industries could come up with for Ukraine, Toyota engines in a Tank….

 

28 minutes ago, Parliament said:

A Japanese military-industrial complex would be wicked awesome.  Imagine the electronics they could dream up.