Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[Schulz2.0 28951]

Routing sounds good.

 

[atomheartbevo 89671]

 

[atomheartbevo 89671]

 

[atomheartbevo 89671]

 

[The Dog 44052]

 

[atomheartbevo 89671]

??????

[The Dog 44052]

 

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3868]

 

Whole lotta did I miss a meeting/email looks after his yachts comment. Also, they sped up that part.

[atomheartbevo 89671]

2 hours ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

Whole lotta did I miss a meeting/email looks after his yachts comment. Also, they speed up that part.

Made me think that Putin sent him out there to criticize oligarchs as a trial balloon of sorts, kind of put the oligarchs on notice that they are just as invested in this as he is, because I don’t think he made those comments off the cuff.  The other hosts were clearly surprised.  

I could be reading too much into it, but it’s the kind of thing that if Russia gets pushed back to pre-February lines, it’s being put out there that the oligarchs share some of the blame for diverting funds away from the defense industry.

 

[Captainant 27669]

9 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I could be reading too much into it, but it’s the kind of thing that if Russia gets pushed back to pre-February lines, it’s being put out there that the oligarchs share some of the blame for diverting funds away from the defense industry

The only thing more fun than watching an authoritarian be confronted with the reality of his defeat is watching him scapegoat his underlings one by one

[atomheartbevo 89671]

[Auto Driller 2505]

3 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Made me think that Putin sent him out there to criticize oligarchs as a trial balloon of sorts, kind of put the oligarchs on notice that they are just as invested in this as he is, because I don’t think he made those comments off the cuff.  The other hosts were clearly surprised.  

I could be reading too much into it, but it’s the kind of thing that if Russia gets pushed back to pre-February lines, it’s being put out there that the oligarchs share some of the blame for diverting funds away from the defense industry.

 

If there’s on thing that dictators - and Russian ones in particular-  love, it’s a good purge. Putin may see the writing on the wall that he has no way to win this conventional war. He might be shaping the narrative ahead of time in an effort to save his own life.

[Schulz2.0 28951]

[Schulz2.0 28951]

 

[Schulz2.0 28951]

 

[jdhorn92 1549]

6 hours ago, Captainant said:

The only thing more fun than watching an authoritarian be confronted with the reality of his defeat is watching him scapegoat his underlings one by one

Scott Frost blushes at this tactic

[atomheartbevo 89671]

3 hours ago, Auto Driller said:

If there’s on thing that dictators - and Russian ones in particular-  love, it’s a good purge. Putin may see the writing on the wall that he has no way to win this conventional war. He might be shaping the narrative ahead of time in an effort to save his own life.

“We are having setbacks because the oligarchs took money meant for our soldiers and bought fancy yachts instead.  I will deal with those traitors.”

[The Dog 44052]

Assholes gonna shoot down another passenger jet?

 

[The Dog 44052]

This is why “airdefence” struggling:

 

[Scheiss Meister 8408]

6 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

“We are having setbacks because the oligarchs took money meant for our soldiers and bought fancy yachts instead.  I will deal with those traitors.”

Maybe some of the oligarchs see the writing on the wall and deal with him first.  You know, Do unto others before they do unto you.

1 minute ago, The Dog said:

Assholes gonna shoot down another passenger jet?

 

What moron would fly over this war zone now?  The world knows that Russia would shoot down a civilian airliner in a heartbeat.

[The Dog 44052]

8 minutes ago, Scheiss Meister said:

What moron would fly over this war zone now?

[Parliament 14260]

Is that encirclement of 25k Russian soldiers still holding?

[Scheiss Meister 8408]

6 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Is that encirclement of 25k Russian soldiers still holding?

We don't know that it has happened yet.  Such maneuvers take some time, especially with the number of forces involved and the terrain.  With the operational security that Ukraine is trying to enforce, we may not know that it has happened until well after it is completed.  Patience, man, patience.

[The Dog 44052]

 

[Scheiss Meister 8408]

6 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

I want to believe, but the guy who is supposed to be surrounded sounds pretty calm and rested, there's no background noise, and the signal sounds remarkably good for not having much left in the way of comms.  It sounds too staged.  I am skeptical.

[Pato del Muerto 52499]

45 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

“We are having setbacks because the oligarchs took money meant for our soldiers and bought fancy yachts instead.  I will deal with those traitors.”

Say, isn’t putin doing the same thing?  -Russian oligarchs 

[Pescado_Rojo 19416]

2 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Say, isn’t putin doing the same thing?  -Russian oligarchs 

[Captainant 27669]

33 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Say, isn’t putin doing the same thing?  -Russian oligarchs 

love me a good #BOTHSIDES from intellectually dishonest chuds to defend their own bad behavior! Classic russian tactic, Looking forward to seeing more of them OD'ing on copium

[atomheartbevo 89671]

Little more on the HARM stuff

[The Dog 44052]

 

[The Dog 44052]

 

[Captainant 27669]

20 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Little more on the HARM stuff

That integration/retrofit pattern seems like a real multiplier for capabilities - no computer in your 40 year old jet to talk to the missiles? Here's a tablet, go nuts! I'm sure it would never pass inspection or get certified, but that's awesome that Ukraine is able to bubble gum and bailing wire it all together into a weapons system

[Scheiss Meister 8408]

7 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

Ok, Ukraine.  Time to fuck up some trains.

[Scheiss Meister 8408]

A pleasant thought just occurred to me: since Putin has shoved Shoigu aside and taken direct overall control over operations in Ukraine, if this offensive is successful, the responsibility is all his.  Politically, logistically, and operationally.  To steal a line: he remains a genius.

[Laxtonto 12080]

20 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Little more on the HARM stuff

The idea that the UK has built secondary aftermarket subsystems to launch HARMs implies that this is only for a few dedicated strike craft and as such, there is an explicit need. This is probably tied to a strategy shift to a consolidated not distributed supply and COC infrastructure at the outer edges of HIMARS range.

With the limited air power that is available for the Ukrainians, having a dedicated sortie for antiradiation tells me that the "risk" is worth it. The only way that is true is if the distributed supply depots were getting shredded by the HIMARS and so they are trying to aggregate the depots under a major umbrella of multiple to provide some antimissle defense.

To me this signals that the supply issue is way worse than being let on. You don't consolidate unless you absolutely have to. It makes too tempting of a big target for nontraditional approaches (spec ops, partisans, etc) or massive overload HIMARS strikes.

 

This is the grand chess game of war strategy in action.

[Pato del Muerto 52499]

Isn’t Estonia a very technologically advanced and savvy country?  I wonder if this weapons integration stuff is something they could have helped with.  

[atomheartbevo 89671]

3 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

The idea that the UK has built secondary aftermarket subsystems to launch HARMs implies that this is only for a few dedicated strike craft and as such, there is an explicit need. This is probably tied to a strategy shift to a consolidated not distributed supply and COC infrastructure at the outer edges of HIMARS range.

The US Air Force has had MiG-29s for around 25 years, so I’m assuming they’ve had a little help with the “integration”

[Laxtonto 12080]

18 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

I would not want to be on those trains right now. Either partisans are looking to blow the tracks, HIMARS are looking to target them at any overlapping station, or spec ops drone strikes targeting the engines...

 

To me this is extremely reactive and lends a bit more credence to the idea that they may actually be enveloping a huge force in Kherson and so either they are desperate to reinforce the other side of the river or this is an attempt to apply enough pressure to allow more of those troops to withdraw

[atomheartbevo 89671]

Lukashenko feeling some pressure

 

[27-25 2047]

17 minutes ago, Captainant said:

That integration/retrofit pattern seems like a real multiplier for capabilities - no computer in your 40 year old jet to talk to the missiles? Here's a tablet, go nuts! I'm sure it would never pass inspection or get certified, but that's awesome that Ukraine is able to bubble gum and bailing wire it all together into a weapons system

Meet Ivan Macgyversky, weapons technician extraordinaire.

Ukraine has been impressing mightily in 2022.  They deserve a nice long peace after their victory.

[Scheiss Meister 8408]

4 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

I would not want to be on those trains right now. Either partisans are looking to blow the tracks, HIMARS are looking to target them at any overlapping station, or spec ops drone strikes targeting the engines...

 

To me this is extremely reactive and lends a bit more credence to the idea that they may actually be enveloping a huge force in Kherson and so either they are desperate to reinforce the other side of the river or this is an attempt to apply enough pressure to allow more of those troops to withdraw

An offensive like this can cut both ways.  If the Russians can stop the Ukrainians and throw them back, they would want to keep the pressure on and counterattack wherever Ukraine is weakest.  Russia could be trying to reinforce to hold, set the situation to allow a withdrawal, or reinforce to throw back the Ukrainians and take the offensive themselves.  If I were in charge of the Russian forces, I would try for going on the counterattack.  With their logistical difficulties, it may be the best option.  See also Joshua Lawrence Chamberlain at Little Round Top during the Battle of Gettysburg.

[The Dog 44052]

 

[atomheartbevo 89671]

 

[atomheartbevo 89671]

That’s kind of where I’m at. Unless Ukraine looks like they are getting into Crimea proper.  Losing Kherson, Putin won’t do shit.

 

[Pescado_Rojo 19416]

34 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

The idea that the UK has built secondary aftermarket subsystems to launch HARMs implies that this is only for a few dedicated strike craft and as such, there is an explicit need. This is probably tied to a strategy shift to a consolidated not distributed supply and COC infrastructure at the outer edges of HIMARS range.

With the limited air power that is available for the Ukrainians, having a dedicated sortie for antiradiation tells me that the "risk" is worth it. The only way that is true is if the distributed supply depots were getting shredded by the HIMARS and so they are trying to aggregate the depots under a major umbrella of multiple to provide some antimissle defense.

To me this signals that the supply issue is way worse than being let on. You don't consolidate unless you absolutely have to. It makes too tempting of a big target for nontraditional approaches (spec ops, partisans, etc) or massive overload HIMARS strikes.

 

This is the grand chess game of war strategy in action.

Long article on how Ukraine could be using the HARM missiles

Basically, the AGM 88 has three modes. The most likely scenario is they are using them in pre-programed mode. In pre-programed mode, a general location is programed into the missile on the ground, then the missiles are launched at maximum range and altitude. When they get to the designated area, their seeker head goes active and they will lock on any radar source in the area. Not quite a loitering munition, but sort of a similar concept. You would typically mass launch these above and just ahead of any inbound strike aircraft to give them maximum protection from ground based radars during the strike. This might explain why they are launching them two at a time in the videos we've seen. 

[Nivek 16930]

12 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

Bastard is trying my stolen valor idea.  (Surly post-war trip to Ukraine with Raytheon, Lockheed-Martin t-shirts)

[Laxtonto 12080]

Just now, Scheiss Meister said:

An offensive like this can cut both ways.  If the Russians can stop the Ukrainians and throw them back, they would want to keep the pressure on and counterattack wherever Ukraine is weakest.  Russia could be trying to reinforce to hold, set the situation to allow a withdrawal, or reinforce to throw back the Ukrainians and take the offensive themselves.  If I were in charge of the Russian forces, I would try for going on the counterattack.  With their logistical difficulties, it may be the best option.  See also Joshua Lawrence Chamberlain at Little Round Top during the Battle of Gettysburg.

The problem is the river. The UK has essentially blanketed the entire river and wiped out all crossings and targeted the various engineering battalions as well. So either they are rushing troops in to reinforce their side of the river or they are going to have to mass them further east and hope they can fidn a crossing at a point that 1, they can actually do it and 2, wont be a disaster.

[Laxtonto 12080]

8 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

Long article on how Ukraine could be using the HARM missiles

Basically, the AGM 88 has three modes. The most likely scenario is they are using them in pre-programed mode. In pre-programed mode, a general location is programed into the missile on the ground, then the missiles are launched at maximum range and altitude. When they get to the designated area, their seeker head goes active and they will lock on any radar source in the area. Not quite a loitering munition, but sort of a similar concept. You would typically mass launch these above and just ahead of any inbound strike aircraft to give them maximum protection from ground based radars during the strike. This might explain why they are launching them two at a time in the videos we've seen. 

So send out a 2 craft sortie, launch 4 HARMS in a loitering mode just as you launch a full HIMRS salvo at the target. As soon as the air defense moves from passive to active mode the HARMS lock and hit the radars while the HIMRS then follow in right behind unopposed.

Would be a bit tricky from a timing standpoint, but makes a bit more sense than trying to pull off strike aircraft doing the close-in work with the limited air assets the UK has.

[The Dog 44052]

 

[Ghost of LL 15531]

1 hour ago, Scheiss Meister said:

A pleasant thought just occurred to me: since Putin has shoved Shoigu aside and taken direct overall control over operations in Ukraine, if this offensive is successful, the responsibility is all his.  Politically, logistically, and operationally.  To steal a line: he remains a genius.

This move has very Nicholas II energy about it.  In September 1915, Nicholas II sidelined his cousin and took over the role as commander-in-chief of Russian forces.  His problem was that it made him personally responsible for the outcome of the war (which didn't turn out too well).