Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[MillerEP 30,492]

 

[MillerEP 30,492]

^Some top notch trolling

[The Dog 44,073]

 

[The Dog 44,073]

 

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3,868]

 
hopefully the NK ammo misfires and blows up things  

Trent Telenko has a long thread that when NK was last saber rattling 2/3 of NK munitions did nothing. Those munitions are now 12 years older and have to go thousands of miles by rail to get in theatre.

[Rimbo 26,022]

 

[bolverk 29,696]

5 hours ago, MillerEP said:

Russians trying to flee cross the Dnipro on  pontoon in two tweets:

 

[atomheartbevo 89,759]

The bad and good thing about panic among poorly trained and/or motivated troops being routed, is that it’s contagious as hell.

All those scenarios about what Putin would do if he started losing Crimea or Donetsk are about to come into play.  If Ukraine clears out a lot of those areas around Kharkiv, that will actually shorten the front that Ukraine is attacking on, as well as reduce the amount of troops needed, and shorten supply lines.

The fact that Putin is pretending in public that nothing bad is happening is really fucking stupid, because when things really start to collapse, it could happen so fast that one night he’s saying things are fine, the next Russia has lost most of one of the territories it claims.

Its like somebody’s wife telling them they are not pregnant, and then the next night when they come home, she’s 6 months pregnant and picking out stuff for the baby register.

Edited September 7, 2022 by atomheartbevo

[Pescado_Rojo 19,427]

1 hour ago, 686 said:

 

Can you imagine what the tone of that meeting/afterparty is going to be like? Talk about high morale. Ukrainian Def Min should come in like this, get it started right.

 

More like...

[686 3,450]

[Chad Fuck 17,698]

35 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

The bad and good thing about panic among poorly trained and/or motivated troops being routed, is that it’s contagious as hell.

All those scenarios about what Putin would do if he started losing Crimea or Donetsk are about to come into play.  If Ukraine clears out a lot of those areas around Kharkiv, that will actually shorten the front that Ukraine is attacking on, as well as reduce the amount of troops needed, and shorten supply lines.

The fact that Putin is pretending in public that nothing bad is happening is really fucking stupid, because when things really start to collapse, it could happen so fast that one night he’s saying things are fine, the next Russia has lost most of one of the territories it claims.

Its like somebody’s wife telling them they are not pregnant, and then the next night when they come home, she’s 6 months pregnant and picking out stuff for the baby register.

He will just stop talking about it.  So will everyone else.  It'll go down the memory hole and everyone will pretend like it never happened.  No matter what the tombstones in the graveyards say.

[Pato del Muerto 52,535]

1 hour ago, The Dog said:

 

It feels like they are taking huge swaths of land from reading tweets, then you see all that red on the maps and understand how much more there is to go, presumably with Russian forces being concentrated as they retreat. 

[The Dog 44,073]

[atomheartbevo 89,759]

2 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

It feels like they are taking huge swaths of land from reading tweets, then you see all that red on the maps and understand how much more there is to go, presumably with Russian forces being concentrated as they retreat. 

Well, chances are extremely good that Russia doesn’t actually control large chunks of the red, but rather the roads, crossings, and villages.  Russians have far less than 200,000 troops in Ukraine, with maybe a third or even a quarter actually doing infantry-style fighting (rest are logistics, medical, support, artillery), and most of those fighting are going to be concentrated in loose clusters of 30-100 or so, around the roads and villages (staying near command and control or logistics hubs).

That %66-75 that are not infantry are going to flee and not put up a fight.

[atomheartbevo 89,759]

 

[The Dog 44,073]

 

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3,868]

It was leaked how much money has been paid out for RU KIA. Dividing that total by KIA payout number and just short of 49,000 RU troops are KIA. That 49K doesn’t include LNR, DNR, Chechens, nor Wagner.

[atomheartbevo 89,759]

 

[bolverk 29,696]

15 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Well, chances are extremely good that Russia doesn’t actually control large chunks of the red, but rather the roads, crossings, and villages.  Russians have far less than 200,000 troops in Ukraine, with maybe a third or even a quarter actually doing infantry-style fighting (rest are logistics, medical, support, artillery), and most of those fighting are going to be concentrated in loose clusters of 30-100 or so, around the roads and villages (staying near command and control or logistics hubs).

That %66-75 that are not infantry are going to flee and not put up a fight.

Drawing a front line using liveuamap.com to eyeball it, and using this as a source (as of August 31) saying the Russians control about 50,000 square miles.

Using a calculated value of 1/3 of 200,000, you get 67,000 combat troops on that 535 mile front for about 125 Rascists per mile along the front. That translates to about 1 Russian troop responsible for defending 42 feet. Then, you've got another 2.5 to 3.0 per square mile of support troops covering the rest of occupied territory.

I don't know if this is good or bad, just showing the maths.

[Gengs1 2,583]

 

[Gengs1 2,583]

 

[Gengs1 2,583]

 

[juan pantages 124]

4 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:

 

Well, that was sobering 

[The Dog 44,073]

Oh BOO FUCKING HOO GO HOME IVAN

 

[PTINS 3,472]

1 hour ago, Pato del Muerto said:

It feels like they are taking huge swaths of land from reading tweets, then you see all that red on the maps and understand how much more there is to go, presumably with Russian forces being concentrated as they retreat. 

Most of this is cultivated farmland, with small/tiny villages scattered here and there. No place to run and no place to hide. Eyes are everywhere.

[utee94 15,835]

1 minute ago, The Dog said:

Oh BOO FUCKING HOO GO HOME IVAN

 

I know of a super-quick super-simple solution for Russia to stop the flow of Western weapons to Ukraine.  Let's see if Ivan can guess what that might be?

Note-- this miracle cure could also result in the relatively quick lifting of sanctions!  (provided Russia meets a few other important criteria, of course)

Just let us know when you're ready for the super-quick super-simple solution, Ivan.

[NoRagrets 1,125]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/russian-corporate-mercenaries-move-into-africa-wagner-group-russia-ukraine-mali-commerce-private-sector-concessions-gold-11662582748

[Gengs1 2,583]

 

^^hahahah

[Gengs1 2,583]

11 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Oh BOO FUCKING HOO GO HOME IVAN

 

Would be awesome if they went, what weapons? These are only used for defense purposes; what are you guys worried about?

[atomheartbevo 89,759]

9 minutes ago, Gengs1 said:

hahahah

I’m willing to bet more than a few Russian officers are confused about which units are under attack.

speaking of

 

Edited September 8, 2022 by atomheartbevo

[686 3,450]

SIAP. We trained the UA guys that Harpooned the Moscow. I mean we are just pantsing Putin. Our military has an incredible capability when we’re going up against a 20th century opponent and not trying to stop goat herders from stoning each other.

[GopherRock 1,765]

45 minutes ago, Gengs1 said:

 

NAFO: proudly fighting the Kremlin, one meme at a time. 

[Dahobbs 17,627]

3 minutes ago, 686 said:

SIAP. We trained the UA guys that Harpooned the Moscow. I mean we are just pantsing Putin. Our military has an incredible capability when we’re going up against a 20th century opponent and not trying to stop goat herders from stoning each other.
 

Moskva sank in April, presumably by Neptune missiles, not Harpoons. This must be referencing a different ship. 

[Gengs1 2,583]

5 minutes ago, 686 said:

SIAP. We trained the UA guys that Harpooned the Moscow. I mean we are just pantsing Putin. Our military has an incredible capability when we’re going up against a 20th century opponent and not trying to stop goat herders from stoning each other.
 

We do have to give the goat herders, rice farmers etc some credit here, they can be very formidable opponents when defending their turf (the terrain helps) but they are quite good and guerrilla combat . 

[Parliament 14,273]

4 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

 

Aggie roller coaster in, what, mid-October?

[686 3,450]

Moskva sank in April, presumably by Neptune missiles, not Harpoons. This must be referencing a different ship. 

I should have checked that

[The Dog 44,073]

 

[686 3,450]

We do have to give the goat herders, rice farmers etc some credit here, they can be very formidable opponents when defending their turf (the terrain helps) but they are quite good and guerrilla combat . 

Yes they are very good on their turf, and when they want to kill each other, it’s really damn hard to stop it. We used to get some grief because we didn’t go into Rwanda when they were doing their ethnic cleansing, but to paraphrase one of our officials at the time “our military isn’t designed to stop one guy with a machete from killing another guy”. I.e the extreme asymmetry eliminates our advantages, we literally have to have guys standing guard everywhere with rifles to stop that, which isn’t what we’re setup to do.

[Gengs1 2,583]

4 minutes ago, 686 said:

we literally have to have guys standing guard everywhere with rifles to stop that, which isn’t what we’re setup to do.

We sort of already do that at macro level vs micro level by deploying carriers around the world etc. We are essentially saying, I wish a motherfucker would.  
It prevents a lot of conflict by just showing what we can do. We can’t stop all conflicts but do a pretty good job in a lot of them.

Prime reason is in the balkans, they know if someone starts shit, they getting bombed…

[Superhero 8,832]

44 minutes ago, Gengs1 said:

We do have to give the goat herders, rice farmers etc some credit here, they can be very formidable opponents when defending their turf (the terrain helps) but they are quite good and guerrilla combat . 

The man in the black pajamas, Dude. Worthy fuckin' adversary.

- Walter Sobchak

[Trey3216 15,350]

38 minutes ago, 686 said:

Yes they are very good on their turf, and when they want to kill each other, it’s really damn hard to stop it. We used to get some grief because we didn’t go into Rwanda when they were doing their ethnic cleansing, but to paraphrase one of our officials at the time “our military isn’t designed to stop one guy with a machete from killing another guy”. I.e the extreme asymmetry eliminates our advantages, we literally have to have guys standing guard everywhere with rifles to stop that, which isn’t what we’re setup to do.

Well that, and unlike Russia, we don’t resort to indiscriminately leveling civilian infrastructure and mass exportation of citizens as our modus operandi.  

[686 3,450]

Well that, and unlike Russia, we don’t resort to indiscriminately leveling civilian infrastructure and mass exportation of citizens as our modus operandi.  

Back when we were out of patience in asymmetric wars with Stone Age nations we did. We’re still reconciling it. We at least as a nation have regrets and can own the fact that mistakes were made and we can learn from them and try not to repeat and advise others not to go down that road. Russia doesn’t give a shit and has
no moral barometer or ethical floor.

[Trey3216 15,350]

6 minutes ago, 686 said:

Back when we were out of patience in asymmetric wars with Stone Age nations we did. We’re still reconciling it. We at least as a nation have regrets and can own the fact that mistakes were made and we can learn from them and try not to repeat and advise others not to go down that road. Russia doesn’t give a shit and has
no moral barometer or ethical floor.

I was speaking of more modern times.  

[Parliament 14,273]

I went back and dropped pos rep on random posts until I ran out.  This thread represents the BEST of Surly Horns.  We have insight, levity, humor and hope.  I love every single one of you.

Next Surly tailgate I'm bringing a truckload of Skyline Chili and Busch Light.  You guys deserve it.

Horns up, motherfuckers.

[686 3,450]

I was speaking of more modern times.  

Yes, I’ve been trying to remember who said it a week or so ago on twitter that the US isn’t willing to commit genocide anymore, even if it means “losing” a war, which is a differentiator between us and Russia, China, etc. I think that’s a huge reason we’ve pushed our military sophistication so far, not only do we want our guys to come home safe, we want to be able to overwhelm adversaries quickly and avoid the protracted meatgrinders that reflect negatively on us globally and lose political support at home. Powell Doctrine vs. Westmoreland’s attrition warfare. Sun Tzu knew it a long time ago: “in warfare, keeping a nation intact is best, destroying a nation second best…Therefore, to achieve a hundred victories in a hundred battles is not the highest excellence; to subjugate the enemy's army without doing battle is the highest of excellence.”

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3,868]

Moskva sank in April, presumably by Neptune missiles, not Harpoons. This must be referencing a different ship. 

I think it was ‘slipped’ in the last 24 hours that Harpoons, launched off an adapted flatbed truck, sunk the Moskva not Neptunes.

Of course that maybe propaganda for Chinese consumption.

[Hermanator 7,124]

I haven't paid much attention to this over the summer. Seems like it's basically a stalemate at this point?

[atomheartbevo 89,759]

7 minutes ago, Hermanator said:

I haven't paid much attention to this over the summer. Seems like it's basically a stalemate at this point?

[Born to Run 6,569]

Well, that was sobering 

Yes it was, Ukraine is suffering heavily in this war, it's brutal and awful. Losing this war would be far worse for Ukraine. And Ukrainians.

[0xdeadbeef 1,651]

31 minutes ago, Hermanator said:

I haven't paid much attention to this over the summer. Seems like it's basically a stalemate at this point?

Serious question: What news sources do you consume that it seem like it's a stalemate?