Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[atomheartbevo 89922]

But how are things going in Kherson?

 

[Scheiss Meister 8416]

3 minutes ago, SmokeyTheBear said:

It was close to being successful (more than currently anyways) if Trump would have won a second term (fuck the no CR). NATO would not have had the cohesive response it had and we certainly wouldn't be supporting the war effort to the extent we have. Our intelligence and weaponry is the difference here and it exposed any flaws Russia's military has. They would have been exposed eventually, but much easier to take over Ukraine if they are largely alone in the world, then each domino falls behind them if each country (Estonia, Poland, etc) are left to defend themselves alone from the orc horde. 

I also think that Russia also thought that Biden would be too weak to lead a response and that Boris Johnson would not respond the way that he did. 

Looking at it from Putin's point of view:

1.  Zelensky looked too weak to rally Ukraine, Biden too weak to lead an international response, and Europe too divided to assist Ukraine.

2.  Russia had Europe by the short hairs energywise, with no apparent alternatives that were economically feasible.

3.  He had many Ukrainians bought and acting on his direction.  He thought that they would all stay bought.

4.  He had a powerful fighting force in position to execute a decent invasion plan.

5.  He had to go before any of these conditions changed.

He failed because too many of his assumptions were based on hope, not fact.

[atomheartbevo 89922]

“Ukraine or Death” stripe on his jacket

Edited September 14, 2022 by atomheartbevo

[InkaUtexas 26280]

2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

“Ukraine or Death” stripe on his jacket

 

I Want that patch! Well not his, but one like it! Can sit in a drawer with all the other patches I have collected. 

[atomheartbevo 89922]

Hard to verify the stuff below but would not be surprised. 

 

[SmokeyTheBear 5569]

13 minutes ago, Scheiss Meister said:

I also think that Russia also thought that Biden would be too weak to lead a response and that Boris Johnson would not respond the way that he did. 

Looking at it from Putin's point of view:

1.  Zelensky looked too weak to rally Ukraine, Biden too weak to lead an international response, and Europe too divided to assist Ukraine.

2.  Russia had Europe by the short hairs energywise, with no apparent alternatives that were economically feasible.

3.  He had many Ukrainians bought and acting on his direction.  He thought that they would all stay bought.

4.  He had a powerful fighting force in position to execute a decent invasion plan.

5.  He had to go before any of these conditions changed.

He failed because too many of his assumptions were based on hope, not fact.

Also failed due to the side effect of autocracy being pleasing the leader first, not necessarily owning and learning from mistakes in a progressive manner or communicating up the reality of situations. 

Edited September 14, 2022 by SmokeyTheBear

[atomheartbevo 89922]

[atomheartbevo 89922]

16 minutes ago, Scheiss Meister said:

He failed because too many of his assumptions were based on hope, not fact.

And shitty logistics that relied too heavily on railroad hubs. 

[The Dog 44176]

1 hour ago, Ghost of LL said:

One thing that I will never understand is what prompted the Russian change in strategy.

Russia had a great strategy, and it was working.  Destabilize the Western democracies with a combination of direct payments to elites/influence peddling and propaganda to the ignorant masses through Facebook et al.  That got them some critical wins.  It got them Orban in Hungary and Trump in the United States.  It got them Brexit and has severely weakened both the United Kingdom and the EU.  

At the same time, threaten the Baltics and Poland with invasion and convince them that NATO won't do shit to help them.  And demonstrate the point with repeated cyberattacks that show that NATO won't do shit.  So the end result is the entire Western defense strategy is called into question.

And for the former Soviet states, set up bullshit little breakaway "republics" supported by "little green men."

All of which was covert and they had plausible deniability.  And so while everything looked chaotic--chaos of their own making--the could sit back and look stable and powerful and ascendant.  

There was nothing wrong with that strategy.  It was working.  Shit--Zelensky had a 20% approval rating.  His government was teetering.  It was entirely possible that he would be replaced by someone much more favorable to Russia in due course.

I'll just never understand why they abandoned that covert strategy in favor of an open invasion.  It just doesn't make any sense.

I used to think this but I've changed my mind - I don't think this wasn't a change in strategy at all. 

Everything they were doing to destabilize the West was in order to set the conditions for the invasion(s) to be successful IMHO. 

The invasion of Ukraine and the planned subsequent invasions were always the plan. Putin wanted to restore the former Soviet Union's borders. This was supposed to be his "end game" and rather it's become his Waterloo.

[statsman 5489]

27 minutes ago, Scheiss Meister said:

I also think that Russia also thought that Biden would be too weak to lead a response and that Boris Johnson would not respond the way that he did. 

Looking at it from Putin's point of view:

1.  Zelensky looked too weak to rally Ukraine, Biden too weak to lead an international response, and Europe too divided to assist Ukraine.

2.  Russia had Europe by the short hairs energywise, with no apparent alternatives that were economically feasible.

3.  He had many Ukrainians bought and acting on his direction.  He thought that they would all stay bought.

4.  He had a powerful fighting force in position to execute a decent invasion plan.

5.  He had to go before any of these conditions changed.

He failed because too many of his assumptions were based on hope, not fact.

These autocrats. They always look at free people, living with agency over their lives, and see weakness. They look at their minions, enslaved to the state and docile, and see strength. 
 
Crazy, isn’t it?

[Laxtonto 12328]

5 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

And shitty logistics that relied too heavily on railroad hubs. 

And they have 1/4 of the trucks they need.

And their distribution system is still organized by item not by pallet.

And they did not start retrofitting/maintains armor from long storage to prep for losses.

And they failed spectacularly on training their bridging units.

And they never actually assessed the capabilities of their own air defenses and trusted the manufacturer specs.

And they stripped their training regiments early in the conflict and now it’s severely impacting the quality of all of the reinforcement since.

And…

[YGIFS 19453]

4 minutes ago, The Dog said:

I used to think this but I've changed my mind - I don't think this wasn't a change in strategy at all. 

Everything they were doing to destabilize the West was in order to set the conditions for the invasion(s) to be successful IMHO. 

The invasion of Ukraine and the planned subsequent invasions were always the plan. Putin wanted to restore the former Soviet Union's borders. This was supposed to be his "end game" and rather it's become his Waterloo.

^

Agreed.  But he's got two hole cards to play yet.  He's got a fuckton more firepower that involves atomic energy.  And he woke up a couple hundred million stupid sleepers from Budapest to Bakersfield, CA.  And while they're old and salty...they got another 10-20 years of fight left in 'em and they will his lasting legacy to topple the West.  

[ABSR 5327]

2 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

One thing that I will never understand is what prompted the Russian change in strategy.

Russia had a great strategy, and it was working.  Destabilize the Western democracies with a combination of direct payments to elites/influence peddling and propaganda to the ignorant masses through Facebook et al.  That got them some critical wins.  It got them Orban in Hungary and Trump in the United States.  It got them Brexit and has severely weakened both the United Kingdom and the EU.  

At the same time, threaten the Baltics and Poland with invasion and convince them that NATO won't do shit to help them.  And demonstrate the point with repeated cyberattacks that show that NATO won't do shit.  So the end result is the entire Western defense strategy is called into question.

And for the former Soviet states, set up bullshit little breakaway "republics" supported by "little green men."

All of which was covert and they had plausible deniability.  And so while everything looked chaotic--chaos of their own making--the could sit back and look stable and powerful and ascendant.  

There was nothing wrong with that strategy.  It was working.  Shit--Zelensky had a 20% approval rating.  His government was teetering.  It was entirely possible that he would be replaced by someone much more favorable to Russia in due course.

I'll just never understand why they abandoned that covert strategy in favor of an open invasion.  It just doesn't make any sense.

My take:  Putin's health is failing and he is sensing his own mortality.  With this he started aggressively pursuing territory gains and success as he wanted to solidify his legacy as a new Peter the Great for Russia.    He wants credit for being the one who recreated the Russian empire and that means he had to move past the slow erosion strategy to the current one, which woke up the West.

[The Dog 44176]

 

[RDCanecutter 26517]

11 hours ago, bolverk said:

It's a fine distinction, but that's more of a twang than a drawl, which suggests more of a broader, Appalachian background than a deeper, "Plantation South" cultural one. Our finest resident linguist, @RDCanecutter, can explain the difference if he so wishes.

You pretty much nailed it, nothing much for me to add. I wouldn't be shocked if he came from anywhere between North Alabama/West Carolina/South Ohio. Banjo country!

[Parliament 14357]

3 minutes ago, RDCanecutter said:

You pretty much nailed it, nothing much for me to add. I wouldn't be shocked if he came from anywhere between North Alabama/West Carolina/South Ohio. Banjo country!

I'm not sure of the context.  Should I be offended?  Please tell me. : )

[RDCanecutter 26517]

4 minutes ago, Parliament said:

I'm not sure of the context.  Should I be offended?  Please tell me. : )

Not unless you are offended by Merica. Go watch Red Badge of Courage with Audie Murphy. It's an Ohio regiment and they twang to high heaven.

[Bateshorn 9942]

That Putin-Ji meeting outta be something:

[MillerEP 30501]

 

[MillerEP 30501]

 

[Fico 1791]

1 hour ago, SmokeyTheBear said:

It was close to being successful (more than currently anyways) if Trump would have won a second term (fuck the no CR). NATO would not have had the cohesive response it had and we certainly wouldn't be supporting the war effort to the extent we have. Our intelligence and weaponry is the difference here and it exposed any flaws Russia's military has. They would have been exposed eventually, but much easier to take over Ukraine if they are largely alone in the world, then each domino falls behind them if each country (Estonia, Poland, etc) are left to defend themselves alone from the orc horde. 

 

1 hour ago, Scheiss Meister said:

I also think that Russia also thought that Biden would be too weak to lead a response and that Boris Johnson would not respond the way that he did. 

Looking at it from Putin's point of view:

1.  Zelensky looked too weak to rally Ukraine, Biden too weak to lead an international response, and Europe too divided to assist Ukraine.

2.  Russia had Europe by the short hairs energywise, with no apparent alternatives that were economically feasible.

3.  He had many Ukrainians bought and acting on his direction.  He thought that they would all stay bought.

4.  He had a powerful fighting force in position to execute a decent invasion plan.

5.  He had to go before any of these conditions changed.

He failed because too many of his assumptions were based on hope, not fact.

Agree with all of what y'all said. The massive public intelligence dump, and not just sharing with allied and/or other governments but putting that shit on blast in world wide media by the US, UK & others made a massive difference in torpedoing Putin's plans before this shit even started. Add to that Russians lying through their teeth for the world see.  Putin got away with 2014 because the world wasn't looking and it was over before the world could react. He took that as the West not having the will, cohesion, and mindset to give a shit about Ukraine. I'm damn proud of the West's response. 

[MillerEP 30501]

^Wonder where Russia will get the troops from to send

 

[MillerEP 30501]

 

[Fico 1791]

2 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

^Wonder where Russia will get the troops from to send

 

CTSO's self defense clause one higher than NATO - advantage aggy

[MillerEP 30501]

 

[YGIFS 19453]

3 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

^Wonder where Russia will get the troops from to send

 

I know a few thousand fat cosplay fuckfaces with tactical gear and assault rifles here in the U.S. with allegiances to GodKing Putin I would mind shipping over to serve in the Vanguard.  Miles to go before I sleep, miles to go...

[RDCanecutter 26517]

13 hours ago, MillerEP said:

 

 

One of those Russians must be a former high school teacher.

[MillerEP 30501]

 

[Scheiss Meister 8416]

4 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

 

Sounds like it's HIMARS o'clock.  Get cracking, guys!

[MillerEP 30501]

 

 

[RDCanecutter 26517]

5 hours ago, jdhorn92 said:

I could see myself going over to the Ukraine and swinging a hammer for say, 30 days a year to help with the rebuild. 

So is that what the kids flirting with bodacious Ukrainian women down at the club call it?

[Orange&White 5539]

Moving the subs from Sevastopol pretty much tells you how the russians feel about their chances of holding on to Crimea.

[Fico 1791]

2 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

Thanks! I thought they had another, but was too lazy to look it up! 

Now, to see what can hit it from where.....

Just in from Navel News:

"For the past few weeks, they [Kilo Subs] have been concentrated at Novorossiysk, another naval base much further from Ukraine"

[MillerEP 30501]

 

[Scheiss Meister 8416]

38 minutes ago, Fico said:

Just in from Navel News:

"For the past few weeks, they [Kilo Subs] have been concentrated at Novorossiysk, another naval base much further from Ukraine"

"Navel" news?  Damn.

Real story, though.  When my wife was teaching a college course as a GA, she had a student who was utterly crushed that he had been passed over for an appointment to Annapolis and said he had been told that his essay on why he should get the appointment was the cause.  Since it was an English writing class he asked her to review it and give him pointers, as he was going to try again.  In the first sentence he said something like, "I should be appointed to a position in the 1991 class at the U. S. Navel Academy because..."  When she pointed his mistake out to him, he barfed in her trashcan.  Poor kid never got an appointment, but he did get a decent degree, so I guess it worked out for the best.

Edited September 14, 2022 by Scheiss Meister
Me, my, what's the difference?

[The Dog 44176]

 

[MillerEP 30501]

 

[The Dog 44176]

 

[jdhorn92 1560]

5 minutes ago, Scheiss Meister said:

"Navel" news?  Damn.

Real story, though.  When me wife was teaching a college course as a GA, she had a student who was utterly crushed that he had been passed over for an appointment to Annapolis and said he had been told that his essay on why he should get the appointment was the cause.  Since it was an English writing class he asked her to review it and give him pointers, as he was going to try again.  In the first sentence he said something like, "I should be appointed to a position in the 1991 class at the U. S. Navel Academy because..."  When she pointed his mistake out to him, he barfed in her trashcan.  Poor kid never got an appointment, but he did get a decent degree, so I guess it worked out for the best.

That’s a lot worse than my “haring bone” gaffe in the racist Mexican (but not really a Mexican) Plano milf (mug shot exposed her to be  ‘not a milf’) thread a few weeks ago. 

[Parliament 14357]

7 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

Never fuck with a farmer's desire to farm.  

[Scheiss Meister 8416]

4 minutes ago, jdhorn92 said:

That’s a lot worse than my “haring bone” gaffe in the racist Mexican (but not really a Mexican) Plano milf (mug shot exposed her to be  ‘not a milf’) thread a few weeks ago. 

That was pretty funny.  I enjoy malapropisms, and that was a good one, I thought.

[MillerEP 30501]

 

[RPM 26382]

15 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

[Pato del Muerto 52697]

Maybe putin’s best source of intel dried up in Jan of 21 and his intel was getting older and older, so he had to make a choice. When did pre-positioning begin?

[InkaUtexas 26280]

Anyone else seeing this on other feeds? 

 

[27-25 2056]

 

[MillerEP 30501]

 

[MillerEP 30501]

 

[Trey3216 15380]

13 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

 

Everyone bout to bust out the receipt book on Vlad

[InkaUtexas 26280]

8 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

 

Scene reminds me of the liberation of France and Holland, not the big cities, but the small villages. Fuck yeah.