Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[KYHorn 17637]

6 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

If I could make policy prescriptions, it would be “don’t blink” and also to speed up or even shift course: make announcements that Ukraine gets ATACMS and other capabilities and that they may be used anywhere within the internationally recognized borders of Ukraine or for purposes to defend said territory. 

My thought exactly. I hope we don't pause. It has seemed that we've been must LESS hesitant in the past few months about sending weapons and aide than when this all initially went down. It seems like the mobilization will be the main threat Russia will lean on, while we lean on the threat of ATACMS. One or the other occurring is certainly an escalation. Maybe holding the referenda will lead to us sending other forms of weaponry instead of ATACAMS?

[The Dog 44865]

 

[MillerEP 30907]

 

[statsman 5698]

30 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

 

Bernard Henri Levy occasionally writes an article for the WSJ. Dude is really smart. If he has a political inclination, it’s toward classical Western liberalism. Just FYI. 

[Brisketexan 107028]

37 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

 

 

Go for it, Vald.

Send more 

to the

FAFO.

 

And yes, this is a dangerous time, and a dangerous next move by Russia.  But it was always going to be this way.  The world is in a fight with a rabid dog.  The only choices are 1) let the rabid dog keep on doing rabid dog things, or 2) gradually corner the rabid dog, and put it down.

Both paths have hefty risks.  Path 1, the dog will keep biting.  Path 2), the cornered dog may bite harder.  But only one path offers the prospect of no longer having to fear the rabid dog.  It's the path we're on, and it's the right one.  Now is the time.

[The Dog 44865]

there's more but those get the gist of it and why Russia is fucked.

[MillerEP 30907]

 

[Ghost of LL 15705]

35 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

The referenda are a clear indication of two things. First, it is a tacit admission that the “special military operation” has failed in its primary aims. Taking Kyiv, toppling Zelenskyy, installing a puppet regime are off the table. Putin is shifting to consolidating his gains, such as they are.

Second, this is a clear escalation to try and stem the tide of losing.  This stunt opens several doors.  First, Putin likely believes that “annexation” will make nuclear blackmail more credible and will cause the West to pause and think about more advanced capabilities. Second, as outlined, it opens the door for further mobilization at home and commitment of more resources to the Ukraine fight. 
 

Make no mistake, this is a dangerous development.  The snap nature of the “referenda” means that realistically, we are limited in what we can provide to Ukraine to help them change the facts on the ground in advance.  If I could make policy prescriptions, it would be “don’t blink” and also to speed up or even shift course: make announcements that Ukraine gets ATACMS and other capabilities and that they may be used anywhere within the internationally recognized borders of Ukraine or for purposes to defend said territory. 

Yeah, it's dangerous.  But facing down a nuclear-armed power and frustrating its expansionist goals has always been dangerous.  It was dangerous on February 24.  It was dangerous in 1980 in Afghanistan.  It was dangerous in 1961 in West Berlin.  It was dangerous in 1951 in Korea.  And in each of those instances, American resolve has been key to seeing off Russian aggression.

But here's the happy thing: this was always a necessary step on the road to Ukrainian victory.  Russia expected to be able to march into Kyiv with its "special military operation" and just 100,000 troops.  That has failed.  And more than 50,000 of those troops are now dead (with many more maimed or held prisoner).  This move is a recognition by Russia that its special military operation has failed.

But Russia was never going to just hang up the skates and call it a day.  That's not how aggressors work.  Russia is fully committed, even if Russia didn't intend to fully commit itself on February 24.

The only way this was ever going to end with a Ukrainian victory is for Russia to declare a mass mobilization and for its mobilized army to be defeated.  That is what is going to cause the civil unrest and political pressure in Moscow that is going to force Russia to end its aggression.  Otherwise, you would just have people in Moscow continue going to McDowell's while rando dipshits from the provinces get killed--a state of affairs that could continue for indefinitely.

Now this is not the end.  It is not even the beginning of the end.  But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.  

[956 Worldwide 35602]

Putin is late to his evening special broadcast, widely rumored to be about mobilization measures. Lots of drinking in Moscow tonight. 

[bolverk 30375]

 

[SimonBolivar 11068]

2 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Putin is late to his evening special broadcast, widely rumored to be about mobilization measures. Lots of drinking in Moscow tonight. 

Streaming anywhere?

[956 Worldwide 35602]

1 minute ago, SimonBolivar said:

Streaming anywhere?

Sky News should go to it if and when it starts.

https://youtu.be/-pZDCfBVbSc

[DDD Dad 14663]

5 hours ago, AUS-97HORN said:

If I am Ukraine, I have several spies in each of the cities to tell me the exact fking building that the "referendum" voting is held in and dial each of those buildings in for a HIMARS strike.

 

and blast each fucking voting building to shit, within a 10 minute period.  yeah, you may end up killing a few innocent Ukrainians forced to go there... but you will for sure kill most of the assholes pushing russian leadership and take out most of their "voting" boxes.

we know russia will just stuff the box at that point, but killing as many collaborators as possible at the same time would be a huge bonus- those fucks dont deserve to live anymore anyway

So, you're okay with war crimes.  Good to know.

[MillerEP 30907]

 

[The Dog 44865]

 

[statsman 5698]

8 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Putin is late to his evening special broadcast, widely rumored to be about mobilization measures. Lots of drinking in Moscow tonight. 

Given that the annual per capita vodka consumption in Russia is 10 liters, how is this different from any other night?

[The Dog 44865]

 

[The Dog 44865]

 

 

[SydneyCarton 49534]

7 minutes ago, statsman said:

Given that the annual per capita vodka consumption in Russia is 10 liters, how is this different from any other night?

I mean, that is what, a shot a day? Eh.

I'm guessing Russia has way less dry/puritanical types bringing down the average, as well. 

[Laxtonto 13328]

1 minute ago, The Dog said:

 

Well, my question here is where are they going to go if they are talking about Kharkiv proper?  The only real direction would be N to Belgorod, which might make things way complicated. If instead they are meaning from Kupiansk heading E or Lyman advance NE, yeah no shit...

[Schulz2.0 29295]

7 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

 

[MillerEP 30907]

 

[SydneyCarton 49534]

So there has been only speculation from a few folks here, has anyone seen anything in the twitterverse that from slightly more informed sources that by Russia declaring mobilization, which I assume also means declaring actual war, then Ukraine would now be allowed to fire across Russian lines? Because I mean, if not a formal declaration of war, then when?

[SquishMitten 10497]

13 minutes ago, statsman said:

Given that the annual per capita vodka consumption in Russia is 10 liters, how is this different from any other night?

That has to be an average of all Russians, including children, right? I drink more vodka than that in a month.

[Schulz2.0 29295]

Look closely at the camo pattern on these donated trucks.

 

[SydneyCarton 49534]

3 minutes ago, SquishMitten said:

That has to be an average of all Russians, including children, right? I drink more vodka than that in a month.

My man. Maybe the key is that he specified Vodka. It doesn't include Beer, Wine, Rubbing Alcohol and Radiator Fluid, which I have to assume also individually make up substantial portions of the Russian nutritional pyramid. 

[cactusflinthead 27628]

Still laughing at the toilet on a stretcher.

 

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

Remember when that flesh eating drug was sweeping through Russia? Crocodile are something? 

[SydneyCarton 49534]

1 minute ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

Remember when that flesh eating drug was sweeping through Russia? Crocodile are something? 

Krokodil. And I'm pretty sure it's still there. 

[Chad Fuck 18166]

40 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Yeah, it's dangerous.  But facing down a nuclear-armed power and frustrating its expansionist goals has always been dangerous.  It was dangerous on February 24.  It was dangerous in 1980 in Afghanistan.  It was dangerous in 1961 in West Berlin.  It was dangerous in 1951 in Korea.  And in each of those instances, American resolve has been key to seeing off Russian aggression.

But here's the happy thing: this was always a necessary step on the road to Ukrainian victory.  Russia expected to be able to march into Kyiv with its "special military operation" and just 100,000 troops.  That has failed.  And more than 50,000 of those troops are now dead (with many more maimed or held prisoner).  This move is a recognition by Russia that its special military operation has failed.

But Russia was never going to just hang up the skates and call it a day.  That's not how aggressors work.  Russia is fully committed, even if Russia didn't intend to fully commit itself on February 24.

The only way this was ever going to end with a Ukrainian victory is for Russia to declare a mass mobilization and for its mobilized army to be defeated.  That is what is going to cause the civil unrest and political pressure in Moscow that is going to force Russia to end its aggression.  Otherwise, you would just have people in Moscow continue going to McDowell's while rando dipshits from the provinces get killed--a state of affairs that could continue for indefinitely.

Now this is not the end.  It is not even the beginning of the end.  But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.  

Moreover, all the little nuke wannabes around the world are paying close attention - North Korea, Pakistan, Iran, etc.  They're thinking about how maybe they could make a super power cower by throwing their little nuclear nuts around.  They have to know that we are willing to stare down a *former* super power - an entity that is essentially them but with an excess of nukes - and not think twice about it.

Otherwise, nuclear blackmail is the enduring and inevitable foreseeable future. WE talk softly.  But WE carry the big stick.

[The Dog 44865]

let the speculation begin...

[Parliament 14620]

17 minutes ago, SquishMitten said:

I drink more vodka than that in a month.

 

[Brisketexan 107028]

13 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

Still laughing at the toilet on a stretcher.

There have been times in my life where that particular combo would have come in handy.......

Edited September 20, 2022 by Brisketexan

[Laxtonto 13328]

15 minutes ago, The Dog said:

let the speculation begin...

So, let's speculate...

1. Push back internally once the trial balloon leak went up

2. Belarus says if you do, we cant follow through because we are either going to get overthrown with our troops away from the capital or rolled by Poland

3. Realized that the global pushback was WAY worse than expected and realized that it was encouraging support for Ukraine, not curtailing it as intened

4. Was notified by the US that if they annex parts of Ukraine and mobilize, this is officially a war and so the use of western weapons upon Russian soil is now invalidated

5. Realized that if you mobilize you are going to have hundreds of thousands if not millions of conscripts just sitting in Moscow waiting to be sent to the front with little pay, poor resources, and little training, to fight a war that they really don't care about. That is straight-up revolution fuel..

6. Someone told Putin internally, we get the idea but we more time to be able to get this ready. If we say we are going to do this and yet those regions get overrun before we ever get moving, we look even weaker

Edited September 20, 2022 by Laxtonto
a few more

[ABSR 5373]

20 minutes ago, SquishMitten said:

That has to be an average of all Russians, including children, right? I drink more vodka than that in a month.

Is that so Comrade Mitten?

[Ghost of LL 15705]

8 minutes ago, Chad Fuck said:

Moreover, all the little nuke wannabes around the world are paying close attention - North Korea, Pakistan, Iran, etc.  They're thinking about how maybe they could make a super power cower by throwing their little nuclear nuts around.  They have to know that we are willing to stare down a *former* super power - an entity that is essentially them but with an excess of nukes - and not think twice about it.

Otherwise, nuclear blackmail is the enduring and inevitable foreseeable future. WE talk softly.  But WE carry the big stick.

And here's the other thing--we'd probably know they were going to launch nukes before their on-the-ground commanders.

Our intelligence on Russian intentions has been spot-fucking-on.  We called the "special military operation."  And we called this mobilization--apparently so well that they're having second thoughts.  Is there any doubt that we would know if they were launching nuclear weapons before they did it?

And, if that's the case, that gives us the chance to launch a preemptive counter-force strike.  Not that that is a panacea.  But it would definitely make it very difficult for Russia to initiate a response.  But, more to the point, knowing that our intelligence community has thoroughly infiltrated their decisionmaking--as by now they surely must--ought to be enough to deter any nuclear options.

[SimonBolivar 11068]

1 minute ago, Laxtonto said:

So, let's speculate...

1. Push back internally once the trial balloon leak went up

2. Belarus says if you do, we cant follow through because we are either going to get overthrown with our troops away from the capital or rolled by Poland

3. Realized that the global pushback was WAY worse than expected and realized that it was encouraging support for Ukraine

4. Was notified by the US that if they annex parts of Ukraine and mobilize, this is officially a war and so the use of western weapons upon Russian soil is now invalidated

5...

5.) He'll just do it tomorrow.

[956 Worldwide 35602]

3 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

So, let's speculate...

1. Push back internally once the trial balloon leak went up

2. Belarus says if you do, we cant follow through because we are either going to get overthrown with our troops away from the capital or rolled by Poland

3. Realized that the global pushback was WAY worse than expected and realized that it was encouraging support for Ukraine

4. Was notified by the US that if they annex parts of Ukraine and mobilize, this is officially a war and so the use of western weapons upon Russian soil is now invalidated

5...

Decided he wanted to change something in the pre-recorded speech. 

[utee94 16091]

Just now, 956 Worldwide said:

Decided he wanted to change something in the pre-recorded speech. 

OR, the handlers of his deep fake videos decided they wanted to change something in the pre-recorded speech, since he's actually been dead since the assassination attempt last week...

 

... is what I wish were true.

[Chad Fuck 18166]

4 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

And here's the other thing--we'd probably know they were going to launch nukes before their on-the-ground commanders.

Our intelligence on Russian intentions has been spot-fucking-on.  We called the "special military operation."  And we called this mobilization--apparently so well that they're having second thoughts.  Is there any doubt that we would know if they were launching nuclear weapons before they did it?

And, if that's the case, that gives us the chance to launch a preemptive counter-force strike.  Not that that is a panacea.  But it would definitely make it very difficult for Russia to initiate a response.  But, more to the point, knowing that our intelligence community has thoroughly infiltrated their decisionmaking--as by now they surely must--ought to be enough to deter any nuclear options.

This cannot be overstated.   Our intelligence community is coming out of this effort smelling like roses.  I guess that's what decades of being dedicated to besting commies gets you.

 

[atomheartbevo 90677]

4 hours ago, Laxtonto said:

Just thought about the move of antiair defenses from the Finnish/NATO border to Ukraine/Russia border, and it now makes a ton more sense. If they are concerned that the UKA will be intensifying their missile and air operations once the "annexation" and moblization begin, it is better to have those in place now before it comes down than having to move them after the UKA has already caused havoc.

They’ve been using some of their anti-air missiles in a land-attack mode, because they are running low due to sanctions and having used up so many against Ukrainian land targets and infrastructure, rather than anti-air.

[Trey3216 15453]

33 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

There have been times in my life where that particular combo would have come in handy.......

One could surmise...roughly 12 days ago that would have been aces?  

[AUS-97HORN 12057]

1 hour ago, DDD Dad said:

So, you're okay with war crimes.  Good to know.

 

god damn you are fucking dense. 

 

its a bullshit referendum, being done as a sham with fake Russian actors taking the place of Ukrainians, trying to steal land. 

 

Which under the rules of war means you can legitimately argue they are Russian soldiers and/or spies out of uniform.... doesnt really fucking matter as every rule of international law says you can execute either fucking one as a spy.  

 

 

 

[DDD Dad 14663]

2 minutes ago, AUS-97HORN said:

 

god damn you are fucking dense. 

 

its a bullshit referendum, being done as a sham with fake Russian actors taking the place of Ukrainians, trying to steal land. 

 

Which under the rules of war means you can legitimately argue they are Russian soldiers and/or spies out of uniform.... doesnt really fucking matter as every rule of international law says you can execute either fucking one as a spy.  

 

 

 

No need to insult me for what was a reasonable reaction to your post.

The UA has done (at least based on what we see in the reports) a pretty good job so far of directing their attacks at military infrastructure and actual combatants.  You've proposed a pretty significant shift towards total war, which most civilized nations denounced after WW2.

 

[The Dog 44865]

 

[Gravy Train 976]

Not related, but dammit, Lithuania
https://chazzchips.com/lt/putes-skonio-traskuciai?product_rewrite=putes-skonio-traskuciai

[Ghost of LL 15705]

2 hours ago, The Dog said:

there's more but those get the gist of it and why Russia is fucked.

God almighty, can you imagine the graft that would be involved in this?  The cost of clothing, feeding, equipping, and transporting hundreds of thousands (millions?) of conscripts would be enormous under the best of circumstances.  But this is Russia.  And you know you can add 20-50% to the cost for corruption.  And shit--given the speed with which this is going to have to be done, it's likely to be higher.

If they go through with this, it's going to absolutely bust the Russian budget.

[AUS-97HORN 12057]

50 minutes ago, DDD Dad said:

No need to insult me for what was a reasonable reaction to your post.

The UA has done (at least based on what we see in the reports) a pretty good job so far of directing their attacks at military infrastructure and actual combatants.  You've proposed a pretty significant shift towards total war, which most civilized nations denounced after WW2.

 

no i didnt you completely misread the post.

fake shill voting poll places ( if they even will exist since it sounds like they are just going to magically do the vote via internet in a portion of the world where the internet has been cut off) are valid military targets because they are led by agents of russia- either straight up soldiers or FSB, or some other secret group that is sponsored by Russia to actively try and steal Ulrainian territory.

I advocated blowing up fake polling placed where numerous numbers of the underlying invasion country decision makers and leaders would be at.  there may be a few civillian casualties because they would have been forced to be there. but the targets are absolutely valid because this isnt a real referendum its a move to annex the portions of the country they temporarily control. 

 

I didnt advocate killing unaffiliated civilians.  I advocated killing collaborators/soldiers/contractors/and secret police operating in a country they arent legally allowed in.   *IF* true civilian casualties happen, that is unfortunately a byproduct of war, but Ukraine is TRYING to avoid them as much as possible. 

The U.S. blew up the Iraqi intelligence building in 1991 (and again in 2003) when we knew the overnight cleaning crew would be working, and unfortunately a few of those folks were killed in the attacks... yet thats a valid military target.  and we didnt commit an internationally recognized war crime.    

If you are saying that a country can no longer bomb a military target if a single civilian is at the target then that rule would be used by making sure innocent civillians were posted at every single target- which would go against the law abiding countries to the benefit of the international terrorists.    sometimes the interest of the many outweigh the interests of the few. 

 

[Chad Fuck 18166]

9 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

God almighty, can you imagine the graft that would be involved in this?  The cost of clothing, feeding, equipping, and transporting hundreds of thousands (millions?) of conscripts would be enormous under the best of circumstances.  But this is Russia.  And you know you can add 20-50% to the cost for corruption.  And shit--given the speed with which this is going to have to be done, it's likely to be higher.

If they go through with this, it's going to absolutely bust the Russian budget.

Not to mention their economy is tanking as it is.  

[Gatorubet 30789]

2 hours ago, Fico said:

 

All you assholes dissing Putin better stop and reassess.   This True American Hero is single-handedly destroying the Russian Federation and its future.  If there was a “Ronald Reagan Medal of Freedom for Heroic Re-Dismantling of the Evil Empire”, he should get it. 

Plus, that NATO Membership Salesman of the Year Award.