Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[Bateshorn 9969]

@statsman

Tl:dr that shit, man. 

[Gatorubet 30437]

2 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

@statsman

Tl:dr that shit, man. 

I did.  Great read. Thanks for posting. 

[Gatorubet 30437]

That story shows just how fucking close that first couple weeks were.  Almost a damn miracle.  But ordinary Ukrainian civilians rose up and found a way to halt that first attack….by a thread.  

The money quote is the Orc who lost his tank commander and told the Ukrainian woman he “did not know if they should go forward or back…”.   No initiative and no training.  

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3868]

So, let's speculate...
1. Push back internally once the trial balloon leak went up
2. Belarus says if you do, we cant follow through because we are either going to get overthrown with our troops away from the capital or rolled by Poland
3. Realized that the global pushback was WAY worse than expected and realized that it was encouraging support for Ukraine, not curtailing it as intened
4. Was notified by the US that if they annex parts of Ukraine and mobilize, this is officially a war and so the use of western weapons upon Russian soil is now invalidated
5. Realized that if you mobilize you are going to have hundreds of thousands if not millions of conscripts just sitting in Moscow waiting to be sent to the front with little pay, poor resources, and little training, to fight a war that they really don't care about. That is straight-up revolution fuel..
6. Someone told Putin internally, we get the idea but we more time to be able to get this ready. If we say we are going to do this and yet those regions get overrun before we ever get moving, we look even weaker

7. All NATO aircraft over Eastern Europe and the Black Sea turned off their location signals earlier today.

It happened. Message sent.

[Gravy Train 975]

32 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

 

 

"...not a fault if Russia still ignites one or two of nukes," like no big deal, everyday happenstance in Russian destructo-doctrine. 🥴

[SimonBolivar 10962]

27 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

That story shows just how fucking close that first couple weeks were.  Almost a damn miracle.  But ordinary Ukrainian civilians rose up and found a way to halt that first attack….by a thread.  

The money quote is the Orc who lost his tank commander and told the Ukrainian woman he “did not know if they should go forward or back…”.   No initiative and no training.  

I'm not sure it was that close. Kyiv would've been insane for the Russians if some locals assisted by SOF stopped them on the way.

Edited September 21, 2022 by SimonBolivar

[The Dog 44304]

Now let's look at this map:

If the Ukrainians have taken Lyman and have crossed the river, then all of those "ground lines of communication" in the north/northeast can now be targeted by HIMARS and M270 GMLRS rockets. 

That would explain the quick referendums and the "mobilization" or whatever it is Putin is trying to announce. 

Russia is in deep doodoo if that's correct.

Edited September 21, 2022 by The Dog

[Gatorubet 30437]

2 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

I'm not sure it was that close. Kyiv would've been insane for the Russians if some locals assisted by SOF stopped them on the way.

If enough Russian armor had made it into Kyiv - and the airport lost - the government fleeing might have been seen as the best option.   Had that happened, the fact that Russia would have lost a shit ton of people over time trying to hold it would not have prevented a shit ton of orcs from occupying Ukraine for a while.  

Take away the “I need ammo, not a ride” moment and maybe many, many good things would not have happened.   I mean, who the fuck knows what it would look like now.

Maybe my take is wrong.  But to me, it read like absent the civilian volunteers at critical moments the Ukrainian military alone would have faltered.  

[TexasEd 8163]

5 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

And.....these.

As we game possible future scenarios, a Russian collapse/civil war/power struggle/free-for-all with nukes in play is one of the paths.  In fact, some version or another of that is likely MANY of the possible - even most likely - coming scenarios.  That level of chaos is "black swan event" type shit -- functionally impossible to predict with precision.  The West's play absolutely has to be 1) intelligence sharing on a large scale 2) of info from the majority of our assets in Russia in order to 3) figure out who is making the moves most likely to succeed, and 4) to begin negotiating with them on a path forward that allows them a "win," and gives them an incentive to consolidate power quickly and avoid further conflict with the West.

Pretty easy to say.  Going to be hard as shit to execute.

 

5 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Might as well put out what I think will happen, as message board asshole cred is not high stakes.

Putin will declare his support for the referendums and lay the groundwork for a partial mobilization after they are are conducted and the territories formally annexed.  This will enable him to, later, deploy conscripts and conscript reserves to the territories. I think they will be mostly kept off the front lines and used as a deterrent and to provide logistics, support, and occupational authority security.  I think any major offensives by Russia are going to be on pause for the foreseeable future because they just can’t do them. These annexations will have to be Putin’s win for the time being and he can’t hold even them without regenerating forces from somewhere. Penal battalions and Chechen volunteers won’t cut it. He will try to keep kontraktniki in the actual line of fire,

Moving industry to a war footing is more interesting to me. I see the main benefit of this as a propaganda move as he sees hard economic times coming under sanctions. This defangs that a bit—  Russians will learn they are heroically sacrificing consumer goods to build tanks for the front, rather than facing empty shelves because you’re being sanctioned into oblivion. Undoubtedly, we will see other government services cut to funnel more of the budget to defense. And the authoritarian’s golden rule— never let a crisis go to waste when you can exploit it for more domestic repression.

We will also see more nuclear blackmail but that was coming no matter what.

 

5 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

Naturally, my first thoughts went to the possibility that upon break up we need to focus on Surly Only Fans Franchises in the former Russian Federation - and explore the possibility that they can sponsor/participate in NIL opportunities

 

4 hours ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

I’m concerned that Russia figures out logistics a little and manage to get these conscripts to the front.  They’ll get Enemy at the Gates’d and body counts just start skyrocketing with all the unskilled under-armed meat put in front of NATO arms.  Who knows what happens then. 

 

3 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

Time to start watching for a coup. Sanctions are hitting. Army is losing. Oligarch boats sinking. Let UA go. Don't touch Russian soil, let them mobilize and their conscripts freeze. Hold the border (hence the claymores in the last US package), focus on fucking up the Black Sea fleet and take back Crimea. Watch the Caucus tribes start to rise up. 

[TexasEd 8163]

1 hour ago, statsman said:

Long cat4

Long cat 5

 

 

TLDR

It was the Ukrainian version of Gonzales

[statsman 5529]

21 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

If enough Russian armor had made it into Kyiv - and the airport lost - the government fleeing might have been seen as the best option.   Had that happened, the fact that Russia would have lost a shit ton of people over time trying to hold it would not have prevented a shit ton of orcs from occupying Ukraine for a while.  

Take away the “I need ammo, not a ride” moment and maybe many, many good things would not have happened.   I mean, who the fuck knows what it would look like now.

Maybe my take is wrong.  But to me, it read like absent the civilian volunteers at critical moments the Ukrainian military alone would have faltered.  

It shows the Russian claim that Ukraine is not a nation to be a lie. 

[atomheartbevo 90142]

5 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

Time to start watching for a coup. Sanctions are hitting. Army is losing. Oligarch boats sinking. Let UA go. Don't touch Russian soil, let them mobilize and their conscripts freeze. Hold the border (hence the claymores in the last US package), focus on fucking up the Black Sea fleet and take back Crimea. Watch the Caucus tribes start to rise up. 

And get us to here

[atomheartbevo 90142]

Putin is on Sky News YouTube

 

Edited September 21, 2022 by atomheartbevo

[atomheartbevo 90142]

He said something about Ukraine trying to claim they can use nuclear weapons.

He is claiming The Donbas is nearly clear of Nazis.

Donetsk has a deep line of defense built, and Russians are freeing these villages.  

Still calling it a special military operation.

Russia needs to improve benefits? And improve the Donetsk soldiers?

Russia liberated Kherson.

Kyiv regime using foreign mercenaries and is using NATO-trained soldiers, commanded by NATO commanders.

Most people living in the territories freed from the neo-Nazis are happy.  Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, etc, territories are traditional Russia territories?

[Dr Fear 1269]

This guy is giving a live summary.

[atomheartbevo 90142]

Russia has no moral right to give people to Kyiv to be butchered.

LPR, DPR, Kherson, Zapwhatever regions are wanting to join Russia and referendums are going forward.

Russia is facing the whole of NATO.

Because of that, Putin supports the MOD and the defense ministers to support partial mobilization, and stress that it’s only palatial mobilization.

at this time, Russia is only going to call up reservists and former soldiers.

[atomheartbevo 90142]

Mobilization starts today, the 21st.  

Russian citizens called up will be given all benefits of those under contract.

The West has crossed all lines, and keeps threatening Russian people, and providing Ukraine with long range weapons to hit regions of Russia, including Belgorod.  
 

There are plans in Washington and Brussels to move the battlefield to Russia. West is talking destroying Russian culture, and about nuclear blackmail concerning nuclear plants, and the West is talking about using nuclear weapons,

i would remind the West we have advanced nuclear weapons,

And I’m not bluffing.  Russian citizens and regions will be secured. 

[atomheartbevo 90142]

That’s fucking nuts, and I know some of what I typed was wrong because the translator was hauling ass and stumbling a bit.

But he was clear about him not bluffing and that he believes the West is trying to try to destroy Russia.  

He’s fucking insane  

 Messianic speech.

Edited September 21, 2022 by atomheartbevo

[956 Worldwide 34994]

I believe he is also announcing that the LNR and DNR units will be treated more like official RU military. Which will make sense once the “referenda” are held. 

Like I predicted, partial mobilization and I think soon, once the territories hold “referenda,” those conscripts will be deployed there.

This speech is all about the territory they hold and about how they are fighting the whole West. An admission of defeat for broader aims and a statement of intent to consolidate gains. 

[atomheartbevo 90142]

UK Foreign Office Minister Gillian Keegan is on Sky News saying he’s rewriting history, he’s lying, and the Uk and NATO will continue supporting Ukraine.

 She’s saying the UK Prime Minister is going to give a speech today and double down on the support of Ukraine.

[atomheartbevo 90142]

 

[956 Worldwide 34994]

Also as I noted— he is speaking about mobilization’s impact on procurement and finance for defense equipment.  This is an important element we should focus on, not just the personnel.  
 

Also ranting about strikes on border regions and drones doing reconnaissance over Russian territory. Complains that NATO is threatening with nukes (only Russia threatens with nukes). And says that Russian nukes are better than Western nukes.  Reassures Russians that they are secure. 

[atomheartbevo 90142]

 

[atomheartbevo 90142]

This was pre-speech but apparently he knew what Putin was going to say.

 

[atomheartbevo 90142]

[956 Worldwide 34994]

Shoigu has clarified that they plan to mobilize up to 300,000 more troops and offered reassurances that the mobilization will directly impact only a small percentage of even reservists.

I’m going to be very interested to see what specialties they are grabbing and mobilizing.  That will be key to understanding if my hunch is correct that Putin will be loathe to send too many of these conscript reserves to front-line fighting units.  This will be deeply unpopular in Russia and body bags will only exacerbate that.  I still think they will be looking for logistics, maintenance, and support specialties to free up more kontraktniki to go carry a rifle. 

[Schulz2.0 29069]

 

[Schulz2.0 29069]

[956 Worldwide 34994]

Shoigu’s comically low 6,000 figure is still higher than the number of U.S. deaths in over a decade of war in Iraq. 

[956 Worldwide 34994]

I cannot put into words how much I love that Russian official channels are putting out this shit, with the implicit understanding that NATO standards and Western advisors are so fucking good that Russia has to mobilize if it hopes to defend itself against Ukraine. 
 

 

Edited September 21, 2022 by 956 Worldwide

[956 Worldwide 34994]

Vatnik cope channels are amazing today.  “We’re already up 45-0 in the 4th, so now is the time to send the starters back in.”

[Chad Fuck 17897]

Vatnik cope channels are amazing today.  “We’re already up 45-0 in the 4th, so now is the time to send the starters back in.”

“But the starters are all dead sir.”

[YGIFS 19453]

Well, cross them off then. 

[The Dog 44304]

tl;dw version:

 

[Parliament 14409]

10 hours ago, cactusflinthead said:

 I have yet to see an encampment that didn't look like it was an Oklahoma tailgate party.

1234

[The Dog 44304]

 

[Pig Bellmont 8774]

5 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

All out war with NATO and the West would wipe Russia off the fucking map. This is just rhetoric to try and rally support for their draft

[statsman 5529]

Mobilizing recent Russian military retirees may be less popular than commonly thought…among the noted retirees. 
 
I remember my dad, retired army NCO of 26 years service, responding about Carter floating a similar trial balloon in 1980. “Fuck that! I already served. Let them call up some of these guys that never served instead.”

[KYHorn 17308]

 

[SydneyCarton 48498]

Man price gouging, that's a shame. I'm a strict and vehement opponent of price gouging, because it is typically scumbags taking advantage of people in need. 

But this time I'll allow it. 

[Parliament 14409]

Big drawdown of our artillery shell stockpile.  How long until we run out?  Will we run our reserve all the way down to zero?

https://eurasiantimes.com/us-m777s-could-come-to-a-grinding-halt-in-ukraine-kiev/

 

 

[Orange&White 5559]

I get that Ukraine is in a tight spot and fighting for their survival, but it sure seems like there are more than a few articles that mention things like "Kiev is running out of patience", and basically demanding that the US  and other countries send specific weapons and send them quicker.

If you're country had been less corrupt for the past two decades, and spent more money on your own military, maybe you wouldn't be in the spot you're in.

In the midst of the US basically saving you from destruction isn't the time to be calling them out at every opportunity for not giving you everything you want, on whatever timeline you want.

[The Dog 44304]

[The Dog 44304]

8 minutes ago, Orange&White said:

I get that Ukraine is in a tight spot and fighting for their survival, but it sure seems like there are more than a few articles that mention things like "Kiev is running out of patience", and basically demanding that the US  and other countries send specific weapons and send them quicker.

If you're country had been less corrupt for the past two decades, and spent more money on your own military, maybe you wouldn't be in the spot you're in.

In the midst of the US basically saving you from destruction isn't the time to be calling them out at every opportunity for not giving you everything you want, on whatever timeline you want.

many have been saying that since the start of the war. just ignore them - they don't understand the logistical side of it which is what limits what we can and cannot send quickly. 

[BearSchlong 8142]

I have firsthand knowledge that some NATO countries are not shipping the weapons quantities as listed on the freight manifest.

[statsman 5529]

19 minutes ago, Orange&White said:

I get that Ukraine is in a tight spot and fighting for their survival, but it sure seems like there are more than a few articles that mention things like "Kiev is running out of patience", and basically demanding that the US  and other countries send specific weapons and send them quicker.

If you're country had been less corrupt for the past two decades, and spent more money on your own military, maybe you wouldn't be in the spot you're in.

In the midst of the US basically saving you from destruction isn't the time to be calling them out at every opportunity for not giving you everything you want, on whatever timeline you want.

Providing weapons to Ukraine is the best use of US defense dollars right now. A Ukraine win keeps Russia from going after the Baltic states next (who are NATO members). 
 
The US defense budget really ought to be 20% bigger. 

[Dahobbs 17827]

32 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Big drawdown of our artillery shell stockpile.  How long until we run out?  Will we run our reserve all the way down to zero?

https://eurasiantimes.com/us-m777s-could-come-to-a-grinding-halt-in-ukraine-kiev/

 

 

I don't think that is a reliable source. Actually read the article, it is largely nonsense about Russia destroying HIMARs, the US  and the West running out of ammunition, and Russia's massive military manufacturing might (despite, you know, not actually being able to do any of those things). 

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

43 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Big drawdown of our artillery shell stockpile.  How long until we run out?  Will we run our reserve all the way down to zero?

https://eurasiantimes.com/us-m777s-could-come-to-a-grinding-halt-in-ukraine-kiev/

 

 

The disinfo bots like your feed.

[SydneyCarton 48498]

17 minutes ago, BearSchlong said:

I have firsthand knowledge that some NATO countries are not shipping the weapons quantities as listed on the freight manifest.

I assume you mean less, but perhaps you mean more?

8 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

I don't think that is a reliable source. Actually read the article, it is largely nonsense about Russia destroying HIMARs, the US  and the West running out of ammunition, and Russia's massive military manufacturing might (despite, you know, not actually being able to do any of those things). 

That was a trash article and I was about to say as much, but you beat me to it. That being said, considering the posting source, I'm not surprised.  I mean, who isn't aware of the international news powerhouse...checks notes...Eurasian Times. Lets look closer:

 

Know EurAsian Times

 

 

ByEurAsian Times Desk

May 20, 2017

The EurAsian Times is an Independent, Privately-Owned, Global, Virtual & Apolitical, English Language Digital News Site that specializes in reporting news and editorials on Global Affairs.

Established in 2014 as an Indian-Canadian digital venture, EurAsian Times has a strong editorial (online) presence in New Delhi, India with contributors and analysts almost from every continent specializing in an array of subjects.

ET specializes in penning analysis and OPEDs on International Defence and Global Politics and has been conducting deep, unbiased coverage on the Eurasian Region, Middle-East, South Asia and the Americas.

The news site also publishes interviews, personal narratives and reviews. A team of highly trained journalists, activists, defense experts, freelancers and artists contribute to the news site apart from the coverage by its staff writers and International News Agencies.

[Chad Fuck 17897]

I have firsthand knowledge that some NATO countries are not shipping the weapons quantities as listed on the freight manifest.

“Why do these tractor parts have ‘explosive’ marked on the box?”