Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12,301]

50 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Sadly, I am not sure of that. The authorities know who their families are, where they live, work, etc. Look at the history of what happened to Russian soldiers who surrendered in WW2. 20+5, special sentence. Family could not buy food. No right of correspondence. Work until you die from hunger Yuri. I brought up a Day in the Life of Ivan Denisovich. That is what they are facing. Good quick read to see the how fucked up the Russian system was/is. And the author was a decorated LT, caught in a pincer movement by the Germans, and still got back to his lines. Straight to the Gulag. 

Russia is heading back to the Soviet model. On one of the videos posted earlier, mobilization center, it was a soviet symbol in front of the stage, not Russian Federation. If they surrender, will the west take them in? Ukraine has its own problems for the next decade. They cannot assimilate a bunch of rag tag Russians from the Far East and Dagestan.  

Apples and oranges. That was a war fought for their country’s survival. This war loses all of its legitimacy once the dude who started it is killed/overthrown. They aren’t going to fight his war.

 

[Parliament 14,258]

Am I reading those dipshits are gonna get an entire 2 weeks of military training?

[InkaUtexas 25,918]

1 minute ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

Apples and oranges. That was a war fought for their country’s survival. This war loses all of its legitimacy once the dude who started it is killed/overthrown. They aren’t going to fight his war.

 

Oranges and Clementines. The average rural soldier, and that is who they are taking, does not see the difference. Once inside the camps threats and asskjickings will start. They will be threatened with issues, even informally. Read up on the wars in the Caucus. Same shit happened. Conscripts and Contract troops were never treated the same. Run away, we go for your family. 

I hope they surrender, just saying I don't expect a mass mutiny once they get to the front. I think most of them end of as cannon fodder or driving trucks (if they have the skills, and sober is not needed.) 

And if they do, then what? Can the Ukraine absorb 50K POW's? Will the west build camps for them? Being serious. What if 10% of 1.2M surrender?  That would overwhelm the Ukrainians. I would hope NATO would assist in that aspect, maybe hand it over to the UN. But for how long?

1 minute ago, Parliament said:

Am I reading those dipshits are gonna get an entire 2 weeks of military training?

well that does include 3 days of thorough ass kickings. 

[atomheartbevo 89,659]

2 hours ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

All of these dudes are going to surrender at the first opportunity.

We are focused on the unqualified civilians being mobilized this week, but what about all of the guys on 6-month contracts who just sound out they’ll be in Ukraine until they are dead or the war is over.  

Those guys have already watched their buddies die, they’ve been suffering shitty conditions, and they’ve been lied to by everybody from their officers up to Putin.   And they are about to head into winter.

[InkaUtexas 25,918]

5 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

We are focused on the unqualified civilians being mobilized this week, but what about all of the guys on 6-month contracts who just sound out they’ll be in Ukraine until they are dead or the war is over.  

Those guys have already watched their buddies die, they’ve been suffering shitty conditions, and they’ve been lied to by everybody from their officers up to Putin.   And they are about to head into winter.

Do we know how many have surrendered? I think the conscripts will be more. These dudes are more likely to frag their officers for being lied to. 

Damn, the entire front could collapse. need to go read about similar events, which would go back to WW2. No one was treated nice once they surrendered, but I think the world (Western) is a better place than then. 

So goes back to my question. How long and who would take care of 50,000 Russian POW's? 

[Scheiss Meister 8,407]

"Quantity has a quality of it's own" has long been a Russian tactic.  I don't think these mobilized troops will be enough to win, but they will complicate things for Ukraine.  And don't count too much on mass mutiny once they get to Ukraine.  Once you have been shot at, you tend to be more pissed at those shooting at than those who put you into that situation.  There have already been reports of mutiny and even firefights between Russian units, but no collapse has occurred.

That said, these poor saps are going to be under trained, under equipped, and under fed going into winter.  This isn't going to be pretty.  For them or Ukraine.

[atomheartbevo 89,659]

27 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

So goes back to my question. How long and who would take care of 50,000 Russian POW's? 

Turkey would be my guess, assuming they are moved out of Ukraine.  I can’t see them being placed in a Western European country, Russia would flip.

NATO could throw a shit-ton of money at the Red Cross and work out camps in Ukraine I suppose.

[We’reTexas 1,473]

2 hours ago, Parliament said:

Am I reading those dipshits are gonna get an entire 2 weeks of military training?

22,23 hours. Whatever it takes. 

[atomheartbevo 89,659]

24 minutes ago, Scheiss Meister said:

"Quantity has a quality of it's own" has long been a Russian tactic.  I don't think these mobilized troops will be enough to win, but they will complicate things for Ukraine.  And don't count too much on mass mutiny once they get to Ukraine.  Once you have been shot at, you tend to be more pissed at those shooting at than those who put you into that situation.  There have already been reports of mutiny and even firefights between Russian units, but no collapse has occurred.

That said, these poor saps are going to be under trained, under equipped, and under fed going into winter.  This isn't going to be pretty.  For them or Ukraine.

They are clearly already taking people without military experience, let alone combat experience, so that’s going to be a huge factor, and it almost feels like they are taking people who weren’t smart enough or well-enough off to get out of the country or bribe the local officers or police or whoever, so these people will be bitter from the get-go.. The first time these mobilized troops have grenades dropped on them from drones they didn’t realize were watching them, or are hammered by howitzers that they didn’t realize they were within range of, or they get frostbite and are expected to still hike for kilometers, they will start to crack.

While I was assigned to an infantry unit, I was not an 11B/infantry or 11M/mechanized, yet in my initial 8-week basic training, outside of the normal weapons training, I still received simple training on maneuvering around obstacles and through woods (including actual live fire exercises), clearing buildings, and maneuvering through streets in a mock village.  It would probably add up to maybe 20 hours total (mostly instruction and waiting my turn).  Nothing fancy or high-speed, but the end result was that I wouldn’t accidentally shoot a friendly moving along with me, and I would have a tiny amount of situational awareness.  I would still bet money that my non-infantry ass received more infantry training during my basic training than these mobilized Russians will receive before they make it to Ukraine.

Not only are these dudes going to hit Ukraine without much training, I bet there will be plenty of actual, legitimate friendly fire accidents because somebody was dicking around and didn’t monitor where their muzzle was pointed and whether their safety selector was set to safe.  Oh, and they are going to be led by mobilized officers and NCOs (unless they are lucky and some soldiers currently serving in Ukraine are tapped to lead them).  If they are told to try and take a village, they will die quickly. If they are told to hold a village, they’ll make simple mistakes that the Ukrainians will exploit. 

It will be absolutely brutal, and I doubt the Russians can handle the wounded.

[atomheartbevo 89,659]

Shit will probably get really wild after the 27th.  Been kind of following threads talking about this tonight - basically the Duma started passing legislation this week blocking Russian men from leaving as well as mobilization stuff, Putin puts out the mobilization decree or whatever (which had a secret part that the public has noticed, and the secret part concerns the numbers that will be mobilized), and then all of that comes into play within 24 hours.  

Basically, everything is leading up to martial law and movement restrictions (to further aid mass mobilization) after the end of the referendums.  There is a lot of chatter that Russia will throw the mobilized into Ukraine within the next few weeks, as well as the conscripts into the annexed areas.  We all wondered how their logistics can do it, but apparently Putin is rolling the dice and just going to push them to Ukraine using any means necessary, and they won’t be properly supplied.

 

[Superhero 8,830]

3 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Best comment I’ve see in a long time.

 

Well Putin is suffering from a momentary lapse of reason. 

[Superhero 8,830]

1 hour ago, InkaUtexas said:

Do we know how many have surrendered? I think the conscripts will be more. These dudes are more likely to frag their officers for being lied to. 

Damn, the entire front could collapse. need to go read about similar events, which would go back to WW2. No one was treated nice once they surrendered, but I think the world (Western) is a better place than then. 

So goes back to my question. How long and who would take care of 50,000 Russian POW's? 

This guy will take care of them.

 

[atomheartbevo 89,659]

Just for reference, US Army these days, for just a regular infantryman, say an 18 year-old right out of high school, they have 22 weeks of training - their basic and advanced training is combined and done as one unit.  That’s a lot of classroom instruction and field exercises for somebody who is just carrying a rifle and being your stereotypical grunt, and there will be a shitload more exercises once you get to your unit.

If you go in the Army and your speciality doesn’t have a one unit setup, you are doing 10 weeks of basic training and then your individual/speciality training.  If it’s like the “10 weeks” I had in the early 90s, it’s a couple of weeks of getting to your company/battery, getting sorted into your platoon, doing medical shit (vaccines, etc.) and dentistry, haircuts, issuing uniform/clothing and equipment, additional,paperwork, getting some baseline stuff down - how to do basic tasks like brushing your teeth (we had an actual two-hour class on this, and the film was the most horrifying thing I’ve ever seen), laundry, making bunks up, how to stow your gear, bathroom cleaning, etc. and then we launched into 8 solid weeks of the training you normally think of.

These fuckers are showing up drunk, and I wouldn’t be surprised if their two weeks of training will be mostly getting them trained on loading and shooting a rifle and throwing grenades, and then trying to get them to Ukraine.   Two weeks could easily see the Ukrainians dozens of kilometers deeper into the occupied areas, as well as putting a lot of stuff within HIMARS or even howitzer range. 

And if they truly only have a couple of weeks of training, I don’t see how they can be properly outfitted, and I also don’t see how they can build up an…institutional structure of sorts, where they have proper respect of the NCOs and officers.

[Rimbo 25,924]

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

Turkey would be my guess, assuming they are moved out of Ukraine.  I can’t see them being placed in a Western European country, Russia would flip.

Imagine what the Poles would do to them.

[InkaUtexas 25,918]

2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Turkey would be my guess, assuming they are moved out of Ukraine.  I can’t see them being placed in a Western European country, Russia would flip.

NATO could throw a shit-ton of money at the Red Cross and work out camps in Ukraine I suppose.

Can we send them to Africa? 

[Sawbonz 27,551]

They aren’t just pressing the men in the rural non ethnic Russian areas

Edited September 24, 2022 by Sawbonz

[Pato del Muerto 52,492]

Trench foot about to make a serious comeback?

[SydneyCarton 48,092]

48 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

They aren’t just pressing the men in the rural non ethnic Russian areas

Maybe not just. This could also just be young activists in higher cities doing graffiti. I don’t think it’s a guarantee yet that they’re rolling door to door in St Petersburg and Moscow. 

[Post Oak 20,213]

Alot of people are gonna have bullet holes in their back

[Macanudo 12,977]

6 hours ago, Rimbo said:

Imagine what the Poles would do to them.

We know what they would like to do but there would also be a lot of political capital in doing it right.  But....as someone said, keeping them in a European country would be bad ju-ju.  

And who am I kidding....The Poles would love to fuck up some Russians damn the consequences.

[The Dog 44,043]

 

[Hefeweizen 5,320]

13 hours ago, statsman said:

The US is an elephant. Huge and powerful, but not a strategic thinker. It will astound the world at times with feats of apparently unexpected intelligence, and at other times terrify everyone with destructive fits of rage. 
 
The US is at its best when it lets the UK do its strategic thinking. From their Indian experience, they know the trick to managing the elephant is to do it in a manner where it thinks it is acting in its own. 

Not to be rude but this ignores all history since basically the British defeated Napoleon.  The empire was an unmitigated disaster for most of its colonies and a failure at war fighting strategy.  
 

See:

Wavell

Haig (WW1)

Bomber Harris

Just a few examples.

Montgomery is the possible exception and he had some clunkers.  Market Garden is just the most famous.

 What they do have is incredible fighting spirit and small unit tactics.  So basically the reverse.

[texas08 1,599]

Can you imagine having to rely on the equivalent of Arkansa/Oklahoma crack heads to help you attack a nation?

Training crack heads in two weeks to fight in a war. Russia is pathetic.

*although we all know they’re sending minorities and criminals on purpose*

[Scheiss Meister 8,407]

7 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

They are clearly already taking people without military experience, let alone combat experience, so that’s going to be a huge factor, and it almost feels like they are taking people who weren’t smart enough or well-enough off to get out of the country or bribe the local officers or police or whoever, so these people will be bitter from the get-go.. The first time these mobilized troops have grenades dropped on them from drones they didn’t realize were watching them, or are hammered by howitzers that they didn’t realize they were within range of, or they get frostbite and are expected to still hike for kilometers, they will start to crack.

While I was assigned to an infantry unit, I was not an 11B/infantry or 11M/mechanized, yet in my initial 8-week basic training, outside of the normal weapons training, I still received simple training on maneuvering around obstacles and through woods (including actual live fire exercises), clearing buildings, and maneuvering through streets in a mock village.  It would probably add up to maybe 20 hours total (mostly instruction and waiting my turn).  Nothing fancy or high-speed, but the end result was that I wouldn’t accidentally shoot a friendly moving along with me, and I would have a tiny amount of situational awareness.  I would still bet money that my non-infantry ass received more infantry training during my basic training than these mobilized Russians will receive before they make it to Ukraine.

Not only are these dudes going to hit Ukraine without much training, I bet there will be plenty of actual, legitimate friendly fire accidents because somebody was dicking around and didn’t monitor where their muzzle was pointed and whether their safety selector was set to safe.  Oh, and they are going to be led by mobilized officers and NCOs (unless they are lucky and some soldiers currently serving in Ukraine are tapped to lead them).  If they are told to try and take a village, they will die quickly. If they are told to hold a village, they’ll make simple mistakes that the Ukrainians will exploit. 

It will be absolutely brutal, and I doubt the Russians can handle the wounded.

I was more tired than I thought when I posted that.  You are correct when you say that the mobilized troops are in for some tough sledding and will have many disadvantages.  I'm just saying that a lot of these posts sound like the "aggy will go 5 and 7 this year" posts on the football threads.  They are supported and informed by the authors' wishes more than reality.  How the majority of the press ganged troops will respond is hard to know.  Their society is very different from ours, with different goals and expectations.  It is entirely logical to believe that they will mutiny, and that may well be the end result of this experiment in stupidity, but there is no way to know how rapidly that will happen.  Planning based on the hopes that the Russians will collapse easily is unwise.  That's what the Russians thought about Ukraine, and here we are.

Russia is sending men to war with severely inadequate training, old equipment that has not been maintained and is in short supply, and is stripping labor from strategically vital industries, further complicating the resupply issues.  They will be under trained, under equipped, under fed, have poor morale, and be poorly led.  They will not succeed in the end.  But they are throwing so many bodies forward that it will have an effect just from the inertia of the act. We don't know where or how they will be used.  Putin may be thinking of attacking from the north again, forcing Ukraine to realign forces to meet them.  As has been pointed out, does Ukraine have enough bullets to kill them or enough resources to hold them as prisoners? 

I guess I'm saying that I think that there's a lot that can still go Russia's way, and we need to keep realistic expectations.

[Nivek 16,928]

Just for reference, US Army these days, for just a regular infantryman, say an 18 year-old right out of high school, they have 22 weeks of training - their basic and advanced training is combined and done as one unit.  That’s a lot of classroom instruction and field exercises for somebody who is just carrying a rifle and being your stereotypical grunt, and there will be a shitload more exercises once you get to your unit.
If you go in the Army and your speciality doesn’t have a one unit setup, you are doing 10 weeks of basic training and then your individual/speciality training.  If it’s like the “10 weeks” I had in the early 90s, it’s a couple of weeks of getting to your company/battery, getting sorted into your platoon, doing medical shit (vaccines, etc.) and dentistry, haircuts, issuing uniform/clothing and equipment, additional,paperwork, getting some baseline stuff down - how to do basic tasks like brushing your teeth (we had an actual two-hour class on this, and the film was the most horrifying thing I’ve ever seen), laundry, making bunks up, how to stow your gear, bathroom cleaning, etc. and then we launched into 8 solid weeks of the training you normally think of.
These fuckers are showing up drunk, and I wouldn’t be surprised if their two weeks of training will be mostly getting them trained on loading and shooting a rifle and throwing grenades, and then trying to get them to Ukraine.   Two weeks could easily see the Ukrainians dozens of kilometers deeper into the occupied areas, as well as putting a lot of stuff within HIMARS or even howitzer range. 
And if they truly only have a couple of weeks of training, I don’t see how they can be properly outfitted, and I also don’t see how they can build up an…institutional structure of sorts, where they have proper respect of the NCOs and officers.

Dude didn’t you read the ramblings from above about how they should google tactics and how to maintain a weapon? They are going to be fierce.

[CoTex 1,160]

2 minutes ago, Scheiss Meister said:

I was more tired than I thought when I posted that.  You are correct when you say that the mobilized troops are in for some tough sledding and will have many disadvantages.  I'm just saying that a lot of these posts sound like the "aggy will go 5 and 7 this year" posts on the football threads.  They are supported and informed by the authors' wishes more than reality.  How the majority of the press ganged troops will respond is hard to know.  Their society is very different from ours, with different goals and expectations.  It is entirely logical to believe that they will mutiny, and that may well be the end result of this experiment in stupidity, but there is no way to know how rapidly that will happen.  Planning based on the hopes that the Russians will collapse easily is unwise.  That's what the Russians thought about Ukraine, and here we are.

Russia is sending men to war with severely inadequate training, old equipment that has not been maintained and is in short supply, and is stripping labor from strategically vital industries, further complicating the resupply issues.  They will be under trained, under equipped, under fed, have poor morale, and be poorly led.  They will not succeed in the end.  But they are throwing so many bodies forward that it will have an effect just from the inertia of the act. We don't know where or how they will be used.  Putin may be thinking of attacking from the north again, forcing Ukraine to realign forces to meet them.  As has been pointed out, does Ukraine have enough bullets to kill them or enough resources to hold them as prisoners? 

I guess I'm saying that I think that there's a lot that can still go Russia's way, and we need to keep realistic expectations.

I’m extremely uninformed on these issues, but I think this post is wise.

Russia’s leadership is taking drastic measures to get the win on this deal.  They want the win and have resources.  Probably wanna take that opponent seriously.  Maybe the question is “if this doesn’t work - then what?”

[Bateshorn 9,927]

I do think there is some merit to them trying an attack from the North again to try and relieve the pressure in Crimea and Donbas.  Having said that, without combined arms support, I’m not sure they won’t be walking into pre map Ukrainian fields of fire.

 

I agree this is going to get pretty messy and stress the Ukrainians before things get better. 

Edited September 24, 2022 by Bateshorn

[Superhero 8,830]

12 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

Looking at all the tweets, pics and videos, the predominant hair style amongst Russian men is a indescript buzz cut. But I somewhat understand since living in Russia is akin to living in prison.

 

[The Dog 44,043]

 

[ABSR 5,311]

56 minutes ago, texas08 said:

Can you imagine having to rely on the equivalent of Arkansa/Oklahoma crack heads to help you attack a nation?

Training crack heads in two weeks to fight in a war. Russia is pathetic.

*although we all know they’re sending minorities and criminals on purpose*

But those American crack heads have grown up hunting and shooting.   I don’t think Russia encourages gun ownership and use by the masses.   Advantage aggy!   

Edited September 24, 2022 by ABSR

[Superhero 8,830]

2 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

I do think there is some merit to them trying an attack from the North again to try and relieve the pressure in Crimea and Donbas.  Having said that, without combined arms support, I’m not sure they won’t be walking into pre map Ukrainian fields of fire.

Without significant air cover and armor, hordes of infantry can be taken out quickly with a few MK-77s, aka napalm bobs

 

and a few daisy cutters

 

[Sawbonz 27,551]

1 hour ago, texas08 said:

Can you imagine having to rely on the equivalent of Arkansa/Oklahoma crack heads to help you attack a nation?

Training crack heads in two weeks to fight in a war. Russia is pathetic.

*although we all know they’re sending minorities and criminals on purpose*

Oklahoma and Arkansas have Academy.

[956 Worldwide 34,710]

59 minutes ago, Scheiss Meister said:

I was more tired than I thought when I posted that.  You are correct when you say that the mobilized troops are in for some tough sledding and will have many disadvantages.  I'm just saying that a lot of these posts sound like the "aggy will go 5 and 7 this year" posts on the football threads.  They are supported and informed by the authors' wishes more than reality.  How the majority of the press ganged troops will respond is hard to know.  Their society is very different from ours, with different goals and expectations.  It is entirely logical to believe that they will mutiny, and that may well be the end result of this experiment in stupidity, but there is no way to know how rapidly that will happen.  Planning based on the hopes that the Russians will collapse easily is unwise.  That's what the Russians thought about Ukraine, and here we are.

Russia is sending men to war with severely inadequate training, old equipment that has not been maintained and is in short supply, and is stripping labor from strategically vital industries, further complicating the resupply issues.  They will be under trained, under equipped, under fed, have poor morale, and be poorly led.  They will not succeed in the end.  But they are throwing so many bodies forward that it will have an effect just from the inertia of the act. We don't know where or how they will be used.  Putin may be thinking of attacking from the north again, forcing Ukraine to realign forces to meet them.  As has been pointed out, does Ukraine have enough bullets to kill them or enough resources to hold them as prisoners? 

I guess I'm saying that I think that there's a lot that can still go Russia's way, and we need to keep realistic expectations.

I tend to fall in line with this thinking. As I’ve posted, I want to see what Russia does with these forces.  At this point we need to realize that Russia’s professional military is seriously degraded.  As Russia shifts to a strategy of «нас много» these new bodies are going to be even less capable of carrying out combined arms offenses needed to take and hold territory where the Ukrainians are. But flooding the small provinces in the east and south with even third tier troops is going to present a serious difficultly for Ukraine if Russia decides to shift to the defensive. And there’s every indication that Russia is going to do that, and we cannot forget that Ukraine is a smaller nation that has suffered terrible losses in this war despite their magnificent effort on the battlefield. 
 

We are not appreciating what a shit sandwich Putin is creating with these referendums.  Annexing these territories and calling them “Russian Federation” binds the hands of any potential successor in a way that recognizing republics does not. Anyone now who wants to end this war has to tell the Russian people that they are giving back part of Russia to Ukraine. Even if Ukraine manages to win on the battlefield, it is hard to see anyone on the horizon in Russia who would ever recognize that reality, dooming both nations to not just poor relations but at the VERY BEST a frozen state of war. 
 

Putin’s gamble here is to build his own steel cage around the conflict, swallow the key, and announce that he’s fighting Ukraine to the death. That’s unfortunate, but it’s what he’s chosen, he has had every chance to take off-ramps and he has chosen to escalate each time. So it’s time to kill the bear. 

[texas08 1,599]

But those American crack heads have grown up hunting and shooting.   I don’t think Russia encourages gun ownership and use by the masses.   Advantage aggy!   

Good point.

American crack heads > Russian drunkards.

[Brisketexan 105,123]

Your last sentence is the one that matters. Putin unwisely chose to start an existential fight. So be it.

[cactusflinthead 27,598]

 

[Francisco 2.0 32,389]

 

 

[Francisco 2.0 32,389]

 

 

[Brisketexan 105,123]

 
 

Yes, but counterpoint….that thing will probably still cycle and shoot just fine, because goddamn is that a workhorse of a rifle.

[The Dog 44,043]

 

[Sawbonz 27,551]

Any other mention of this 

 

 

[Laxtonto 12,080]

I think another part of this mobilization that gets glossed over is how this impacts their command and communication structure.

They are calling up tons of cannon fodder and trying to grab any and all officers/noncoms that are also available.

Unlike our system that tends to be very noncom heavy, the RU rely on officers for most things. Well, if people haven’t been paying attention the officer corp has been decimated in the fighting so far and so a system heavily reliant on their officers, which are already short of officers (thank you HIMARS and US OSNIT) are now going to ballon in man power.

So troops that generally don’t get to do much in thier own when the RU is at full strength now will have either an understaffed or nonexistent command structure and limited noncoms to help out.  
 

I have no way not to think of that for the first 2 months when the mobilization hits the front  that it won’t be a wholesale slaughter we haven’t seen since WW1. 
 

And then it gets worse because the winter…Keep hitting the rail system and keep up the pressure and this UKA may be in Crimea by Spring.

[atomheartbevo 89,659]

4 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

Any other mention of this 

Saw one of the Russian vloggers mentioning that they were forcibly calling up nurses, but nothing else.

[Txzen 498]

On 9/23/2022 at 8:30 AM, The Dog said:

 

Not funny. That’s a common way to get a Lada to start. 

[statsman 5,462]

2 hours ago, Scheiss Meister said:

I was more tired than I thought when I posted that.  You are correct when you say that the mobilized troops are in for some tough sledding and will have many disadvantages.  I'm just saying that a lot of these posts sound like the "aggy will go 5 and 7 this year" posts on the football threads.  They are supported and informed by the authors' wishes more than reality.  How the majority of the press ganged troops will respond is hard to know.  Their society is very different from ours, with different goals and expectations.  It is entirely logical to believe that they will mutiny, and that may well be the end result of this experiment in stupidity, but there is no way to know how rapidly that will happen.  Planning based on the hopes that the Russians will collapse easily is unwise.  That's what the Russians thought about Ukraine, and here we are.

Russia is sending men to war with severely inadequate training, old equipment that has not been maintained and is in short supply, and is stripping labor from strategically vital industries, further complicating the resupply issues.  They will be under trained, under equipped, under fed, have poor morale, and be poorly led.  They will not succeed in the end.  But they are throwing so many bodies forward that it will have an effect just from the inertia of the act. We don't know where or how they will be used.  Putin may be thinking of attacking from the north again, forcing Ukraine to realign forces to meet them.  As has been pointed out, does Ukraine have enough bullets to kill them or enough resources to hold them as prisoners? 

I guess I'm saying that I think that there's a lot that can still go Russia's way, and we need to keep realistic expectations.

Between mass mobilizations, threats of nukes, etc. it appears that Russia may realize they are in the position the CSA was in 1861, or Imperial Japan was in 1941- they know they cannot defeat their opponent (Ukraine + west); their only hope is to make it so awful that a favorable truce is signed. 
 
The best thing the west can do is to make it very clear to them that we are committed to their defeat, and any ramp up in hostilities on their side will only increase the resolve on our side. 

Edited September 24, 2022 by statsman

[Left Coast 863]

I feel like I’m watching a real-life version of Atlas Shrugged when it comes to Russia. All the smart people (or people with resources) GTFO, government tells everyone else what to do and takes over everything, country collapses into poverty (and in this case, war).

Regardless of what happens in Ukraine (and I think Ukraine emerges with most of its 2014 borders intact) Putin has single-handedly pushed Russia back 50 years, if not more.

[956 Worldwide 34,710]

5 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

I think another part of this mobilization that gets glossed over is how this impacts their command and communication structure.

They are calling up tons of cannon fodder and trying to grab any and all officers/noncoms that are also available.

Unlike our system that tends to be very noncom heavy, the RU rely on officers for most things. Well, if people haven’t been paying attention the officer corp has been decimated in the fighting so far and so a system heavily reliant on their officers, which are already short of officers (thank you HIMARS and US OSNIT) are now going to ballon in man power.

So troops that generally don’t get to do much in thier own when the RU is at full strength now will have either an understaffed or nonexistent command structure and limited noncoms to help out.  
 

I have no way not to think of that for the first 2 months when the mobilization hits the front  that it won’t be a wholesale slaughter we haven’t seen since WW1. 
 

And then it gets worse because the winter…Keep hitting the rail system and keep up the pressure and this UKA may be in Crimea by Spring.

They are taking “junior officer” conscript reserves up to 50 for a reason. Of course, most of them have been away from the army for decades and weren’t well trained to begin with. 

[Parliament 14,258]

20 minutes ago, Left Coast said:

 

Regardless of what happens in Ukraine (and I think Ukraine emerges with most of its 2014 borders intact) Putin has single-handedly pushed Russia back 50 years, if not more.

Pardon me for falling prey to hyperbole.  Is there a chance Russia becomes a failed state?

[The Dog 44,043]

 

[InkaUtexas 25,918]

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

Yes, but counterpoint….that thing will probably still cycle and shoot just fine, because goddamn is that a workhorse of a rifle.

Just thinking of the condition of the barrel makes me shudder. I have carried AK's in a few places, including having my own for pig hunting here in Texas. Like any machine, they need to be cleaned. They are not indestructible as the world thinks. 

Now lets think of their 1960's tanks they are pulling out of storage.