Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[Rimbo 26049]

37 minutes ago, Left Coast said:

real-life version of Atlas Shrugged

there's two phrases I never expected to see together in the same sentence

[MillerEP 30494]

Mass mobilization does have me a bit nervous. I feel like Ukraine needs to respond in kind. If the goal is to have 1 million Russians flooding into Ukraine to shore up defenses, then Ukraine needs to ramp up its reserves as well. Get their own bodies on the front to hold territory, while the trained forces continue to do their offensives. The west also needs to get off its ass and give them the stuff they need to outfit those troops and the long-range stuff to win. In the best-case scenario, the new Russian conscripts are placed piecemeal and ground down at the current pace while the offensive continues. Worse case the mass of bodies stops the offensive and this turns into another stalemate that drags on. If you can match force for force, then it negates that numerical advantage. I pray that we stick true to our word on Oct 1, when Lend-Lease kicks in. If it kicks in and we still insist on handicapping them, then Ukraine will really need to compensate for this new phase.

[MillerEP 30494]

 

[MillerEP 30494]

 

[Scheiss Meister 8410]

17 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

General, there are still Russian troops, professional and otherwise, holding all or large parts of five of your oblasts.  While that quote is good copy, I hope that you are better focused than that.

[RDCanecutter 26462]

10 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Just for reference, US Army these days, for just a regular infantryman, say an 18 year-old right out of high school, they have 22 weeks of training - their basic and advanced training is combined and done as one unit.  That’s a lot of classroom instruction and field exercises for somebody who is just carrying a rifle and being your stereotypical grunt, and there will be a shitload more exercises once you get to your unit.

If you go in the Army and your speciality doesn’t have a one unit setup, you are doing 10 weeks of basic training and then your individual/speciality training.  If it’s like the “10 weeks” I had in the early 90s, it’s a couple of weeks of getting to your company/battery, getting sorted into your platoon, doing medical shit (vaccines, etc.) and dentistry, haircuts, issuing uniform/clothing and equipment, additional,paperwork, getting some baseline stuff down - how to do basic tasks like brushing your teeth (we had an actual two-hour class on this, and the film was the most horrifying thing I’ve ever seen), laundry, making bunks up, how to stow your gear, bathroom cleaning, etc. and then we launched into 8 solid weeks of the training you normally think of.

These fuckers are showing up drunk, and I wouldn’t be surprised if their two weeks of training will be mostly getting them trained on loading and shooting a rifle and throwing grenades, and then trying to get them to Ukraine.   Two weeks could easily see the Ukrainians dozens of kilometers deeper into the occupied areas, as well as putting a lot of stuff within HIMARS or even howitzer range. 

And if they truly only have a couple of weeks of training, I don’t see how they can be properly outfitted, and I also don’t see how they can build up an…institutional structure of sorts, where they have proper respect of the NCOs and officers.

If these mobilized Russians were Americans, most of them wouldn't qualify to enlist in the US Army

[Bateshorn 9929]

9 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Just thinking of the condition of the barrel makes me shudder. I have carried AK's in a few places, including having my own for pig hunting here in Texas. Like any machine, they need to be cleaned. They are not indestructible as the world thinks. 

Now lets think of their 1960's tanks they are pulling out of storage. 

I joked about it 5 months ago, but I do actually think we may end up seeing  a T-34 or two. You’ve got to think they are going to start pulling T-55 out of storage soon.

[MillerEP 30494]

[MillerEP 30494]

 

[InkaUtexas 26052]

2 minutes ago, RDCanecutter said:

If these mobilized Russians were Americans, most of them wouldn't qualify to enlist in the US Army

well to be fair, neither would most of the Surly crowd. 

 

[Eskimohorn 5642]

General, there are still Russian troops, professional and otherwise, holding all or large parts of five of your oblasts.  While that quote is good copy, I hope that you are better focused than that.

Bulletin Board material?

[MillerEP 30494]

 

[27-25 2051]

And how exactly does Russia expect to properly arm another 300,000+ soldiers?

 

[Scheiss Meister 8410]

1 minute ago, Eskimohorn said:

Bulletin Board material?

No, more like confident and focused is great; cocky and looking past the task at hand, not so much.  We've all seen it in sports and other fields of endeavor.  It is no different in war.

[MillerEP 30494]

^That's what I believe, hence my earlier post. They're there to just plug holes and slow down the advance to force a grinding stalemate so they can consolidate their hold over the land they've stolen, and it buys them time to undermine Ukraine's support in the West. It seems people are happy to let this happen.

 

[Pescado_Rojo 19428]

I wonder how much buying their own bullshit about the Great Patriotic War is coloring Putin’s judgement here. “Well in WWII we were able to overwhelm the Germans with massive amounts of troops…we’ll just do it again”. 

[MillerEP 30494]

 

[AUS-97HORN 11814]

23 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Just thinking of the condition of the barrel makes me shudder. I have carried AK's in a few places, including having my own for pig hunting here in Texas. Like any machine, they need to be cleaned. They are not indestructible as the world thinks. 

Now lets think of their 1960's tanks they are pulling out of storage. 

I read an autobiography by an American officer who had served in Vietnam ( maybe David Hackworth?) who was making a point that the M16 needed constant maintenance and would jam at the slightest bit of grit  (since resolved).  and in contrast he talked about his team going on a patrol in an area that about 13-14 months earlier a reasonable sized  fight between NVA and USA had occured.

In the treeline, the Americans found the remains of an NVA soldier who had clearly died in the battle complete with his ak47 that had been exposed in the fucking jungle for an entire year plus.

they dutifully reported a body count of 1,  and then the officer told everyone to watch how rugged the ak47 was.  He picked the rusted, dirt covered rifle up, cycled it, and let loose the entire remainder of the magazine into the air...

an entire year in the vietnam jungle didnt stop that gun from working as intended.   pretty sure being stuck in a warehouse for 50 years rusting away wouldnt stop it from still working.  

[InkaUtexas 26052]

ok, so hear me out. Russia brings into their army Tatars and Dagestanis. Two groups who have kicked Russian ass. They hit the front lines, we supply food, they turn around and go take Moscow. Thus no US/NATO/UA troops do it, their own do. 

Every piece of territory they liberate is added, quickly, to a new federation. Pretty soon Russia is what it was historically, Moscow, the pig farm on the river. 

Oh, and as we liberate we provide access to OnlyFans for Russian zones under the new army's control. 

Edited September 24, 2022 by InkaUtexas

[MillerEP 30494]

 

[NAVY 6747]

1 hour ago, Txzen said:

Not funny. That’s a common way to get a Lada to start. 

I think the internet misinformed him on how to break your own arm 

[Gatorubet 30286]

18 minutes ago, Eskimohorn said:

Bulletin Board material?

Look - the news of 1 million Russians being signed up to attack Ukraine has to cause at least some kind of concern to the Ukrainian military. I read that tweet is more of a morale sustaining act in light of that news than some irresponsible hubris.

[InkaUtexas 26052]

3 minutes ago, AUS-97HORN said:

I read an autobiography by an American officer who had served in Vietnam ( maybe David Hackworth?) who was making a point that the M16 needed constant maintenance and would jam at the slightest bit of grit  (since resolved).  and in contrast he talked about his team going on a patrol in an area that about 13-14 months earlier a reasonable sized  fight between NVA and USA had occured.

In the treeline, the Americans found the remains of an NVA soldier who had clearly died in the battle complete with his ak47 that had been exposed in the fucking jungle for an entire year plus.

they dutifully reported a body count of 1,  and then the officer told everyone to watch how rugged the ak47 was.  He picked the rusted, dirt covered rifle up, cycled it, and let loose the entire remainder of the magazine into the air...

an entire year in the vietnam jungle didnt stop that gun from working as intended.   pretty sure being stuck in a warehouse for 50 years rusting away wouldnt stop it from still working.  

It was oiled. I have pulled Ak's out of rivers in Central America and they fired fine. Why? They were oiled and packed. Found a few in Afghanistan covered in dirt, but the action  was oiled. Fired fine. That is deep rust. I brought up the barrel for a reason. Go fire a round out of a pitted barrel. One, no problem. 50? Barrel will give and not you have a club. 

Dad did 6 tours in Vietnam. Never had an M-16 jam on him. Why? He kept it clean. I never had an issue with M-16s in Central America or in Afghanistan. I know we did a lot of work on them, but it comes down to maintenance. 

 

[MillerEP 30494]

^Better video of the shot down Su-30

[MillerEP 30494]

This is going to fight in Ukraine. And there are many of them, I wonder how long they will last.

This rascal secured the turnstile to his ammunition with ties. The result is on the video.

^😆

[InkaUtexas 26052]

3 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

This is going to fight in Ukraine. And there are many of them, I wonder how long they will last.

This rascal secured the turnstile to his ammunition with ties. The result is on the video.

^😆

Drunk troops and plate carriers with no plates. Nice..... Time to just hand to the UA a bunch of M-14's and M-249's. 

[Gatorubet 30286]

1 minute ago, MillerEP said:

 

^Better video of the shot down Su-30

Four Aircraft shot down. Not only is that a lot of wasted rubles, there is little or no chance of replacing those aircraft before the conflict is over.  Fighting Russians when Russians have no air superiority - and are shitty at coordinating combined arms - is a hell of a lot different than fighting Russians when their bombers and support aircraft are constantly attacking your troops.

Every time the orcs dip their toe into Ukrainian air space they lose aircraft. It seems to me that this is one of the most impactful aspects of the war so far, and the one that gives me hope. 

[MillerEP 30494]

 

[T-shirt Sip 2107]

31 minutes ago, 27-25 said:

And how exactly does Russia expect to properly arm another 300,000+ soldiers?

 

There will be plenty of lightly used weapons on the ground once they get into theater. 

[InkaUtexas 26052]

2 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

 

That is going to be one hell of a U Turn. Having watched Russian driving videos lets drop in vodka and we take out their northern logistics capability. 

[MillerEP 30494]

^Austin doing it's part?

[MillerEP 30494]

 

[MillerEP 30494]

 

[956 Worldwide 34746]

2 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

^Austin doing it's part?

That top pic has been debunked, I think it was taken sometime in 2020, not that kit isn’t an issue. 
 

The Russian Air Force is getting WRECKT. Watching what was believed to be a preeminent air power just fall out of the sky. This ain’t WWII, those plants aren’t rolling new Sukhois off to backfill.

 

[MillerEP 30494]

 

[Scheiss Meister 8410]

7 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

 

Well, colonel, sucks to be you, doesn't it?

[atomheartbevo 89777]

4 hours ago, Scheiss Meister said:

 How the majority of the press ganged troops will respond is hard to know.  Their society is very different from ours, with different goals and expectations.  It is entirely logical to believe that they will mutiny, and that may well be the end result of this experiment in stupidity, but there is no way to know how rapidly that will happen.  Planning based on the hopes that the Russians will collapse easily is unwise.  That's what the Russians thought about Ukraine, and here we are.

Russia is sending men to war with severely inadequate training, old equipment that has not been maintained and is in short supply, and is stripping labor from strategically vital industries, further complicating the resupply issues.  They will be under trained, under equipped, under fed, have poor morale, and be poorly led.  They will not succeed in the end.  But they are throwing so many bodies forward that it will have an effect just from the inertia of the act. 

4 hours ago, CoTex said:

Russia’s leadership is taking drastic measures to get the win on this deal.  They want the win and have resources.  Probably wanna take that opponent seriously.  Maybe the question is “if this doesn’t work - then what?”

3 hours ago, Bateshorn said:

I do think there is some merit to them trying an attack from the North again to try and relieve the pressure in Crimea and Donbas.  Having said that, without combined arms support, I’m not sure they won’t be walking into pre map Ukrainian fields of fire

I agree the mobilization has to be taken seriously, but I think the only (and best) use of these mobilized troops warm bodies will be throwing them into Crimea and maybe Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhia (assuming Donetsk isn't compromised by the time they make it to the front).  I think Luhansk is a lost cause at this point as Ukraine will be putting more and more rail in that oblast under artillery range, unless they are willing to march them into Luhansk from the east/south. The problem is that they'll be spotted long before they get near enough to do something.

Regardless of how the mobilized troops act in combat, Russia has some serious issues that will cripple their ability to even get them into combat, or limit where they will see combat:

1. Crimea: Crimea is the crown jewel, and everything Russia does has to be weighed in terms of whether it safeguards Crimea.  I would argue that the mobilization is in part because Putin is afraid Ukraine could get into Crimea.  Russia occupying Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia is about protecting Crimea with a land bridge. Opening a front in the north, in theory could pull Ukrainian troops away, but opening such a front reduces the ability to resupply/reinforce Crimea.
2. Artillery: Back in February when the Russians began moving into the northern Ukraine, the Ukrainians didn't have hyper-accurate NATO artillery (from M777s to HIMARS and everything in between) to counter the Russians, and they didn't have the experienced and well-trained troops manning that artillery that they do now.  Every week, the Ukrainians are getting more new artillery and ammo, and they have more and more soldiers who are finishing their training on that artillery.  The Ukrainians now have the artillery capacity and capability to disrupt Russian logistics and troop movements at long distances.  Think about what Ukraine was able to do in terms of defending Kyiv with what they had in February and March, and that pales in comparison to what they have now.  Because Ukraine has great interior lines and very mobile artillery, they can move up artillery fast to deal with any breakout problems.
3. Logistics: Russians have lost thousands of trucks/personnel carriers that they can't replace (due to sanctions), which really limits their movement of troops in terms of getting them the last 30-40 kms.  Ukraine is in the process of putting all of Russia's logistic rail hubs in the northeast under artillery coverage.  That means that for an attack in the northeast, Russia would have to bring in heavy equipment/masses of troops/supplies from the more southerly logistics hubs, and those hubs are already strained (due to having to take in logistics traffic that would normally have flowed from the northern hubs). And they've got to move it from those southern/eastern hubs  with trucks and personnel carriers that they are running low on.  An attack from the north (Belarus) would rely on masses of trucks/personnel carriers they don't have or can't easily spare from the south.
4. Russian Air Force/Missiles:  They are acting like they are on a quota, and just popping off a few dozen missiles a day at civilian targets - this kind of makes me think Putin is in charge of targets, because it's a waste of irreplaceable missiles that should be aiding his military and hitting Ukrainian military targets.  Their Air Force seems to be gunshy as well, versus early on in the war. Ukraine keeps chipping away at their air defenses like nobody's business.
5. Reserves:  If Russia attacked from say Belarus, Ukraine has hundreds of thousands of soldiers in their territorial defenses in the rear areas that have been training for months and are better-trained and equipped than the mobilized Russians, that could be moved up quickly because of great interior lines of movement (not to mention the Ukrainian Air Force would come into play).  Ukraine could call Putin's bluff and stick with using their regular troops against Kherson/Donetsk/Crimea and leave those mobilized Russian troops to Ukraine's better-trained territorial defenses and Air Force.  Putin is then dealing with the fact that he has scarce logistics resources and warm bodies tied up in the north that he would need in south. The mobilized Russians became a liability/drain on defending Crimea, because they've sucked away vehicles that are needed to help with Crimea.
6. Officers/NCOs:  Russia has around 1,200 officers that have been confirmed killed.  This includes dozens of battalions and hundreds of companies/batteries losing their commanding officers, and we already know they have battalions and companies that are not only understaffed, but are being led by officers that are a pay grade or two down from what the position normally requires, so the regular Russian army already has a problem with officers/NCOs.  And 1,200 dead officers probably means thousands of dead NCOs.  If they strip the regular army of experienced officers/NCOs to lead the mobilized Russians, they've fucked over the regular army.  If they leave those mobilized troops to being led by mobilized officers and NCOs, they've fucked those mobilized troops.
7. Heavier Units (Armor): Russia clearly doesn't have the modern armored vehicles (tanks or IFVs/APCs) to supply any large formations that are being wished into existence, otherwise they wouldn't be pulling out old T-62 and T-72s.  That means masses of infantry.  They would need months to get mobilized troops up to speed on fighting with those vehicles anyways.

Putin is a gambler though, which is really bad for somebody in his situation.

Sorry for the manifesto, waiting on the game.

TLDR: Yes, they have to take it seriously, but Russia is very confined on where they can use these troops.

Edited September 24, 2022 by atomheartbevo

[InkaUtexas 26052]

Good post, write more. 

[MillerEP 30494]

 

[MillerEP 30494]

❗️ APU shot down FIVE today!!! aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces

^Saying they downed another 

The moment of the downing of the Russian Ka-52 from the Stinger MANPADS in the Kharkiv region

[MillerEP 30494]

 

[atomheartbevo 89777]

7 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Good post, write more. 

Heh, I will say that if they throw 100,000 or more into Crimea, they could probably hold Crimea, but it would be hell keeping them supplied with food and water and ammo if Ukraine cuts off the freshwater and hits the Kerch bridge.

But it would be a  Pyrrhic victory for Putin.  The Ukrainians are working the rivers to their advantage in the heavy fighting they are doing now, and have shown they can cross when they need to, and they are also making moves that maximizes their artillery (amazing how that combined arms thing worked out for them).

I don't see how Putin survives in power if he mobilizes hundreds of thousand and can only hold onto Crimea - he would be holding less Ukrainian territory than he had back in February, at the cost of tens of thousands of dead Russians.

[GabrielsHorn 2186]

One thing I was thinking of is how the mobilization right before winter is going to be a disaster. Sending underprepared, under supplied kids into a winter battlefield over relatively open terrain is suicide. 
 

let’s just hope someone is Moscow can recognize when enough is enough. 

[MillerEP 30494]

 

[RPM 26339]

1 minute ago, GabrielsHorn said:

Sending underprepared, under supplied kids into a winter battlefield over relatively open terrain is suicide. 

He's following Hitler's playbook.

[atomheartbevo 89777]

Meet the new deputy defense minister of Russia

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-09-24-22/index.html

Quote

Russia has replaced its deputy defense minister by appointing Col. Gen. Mikhail Mizintsev for the post, the Russian Defense Ministry said in a statement published Saturday. 

"Colonel-General Mikhail Mizintsev has been appointed to the post of Deputy Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation, responsible for the logistics of the Armed Forces," according to the statement. 

Mizintsev replaces the General of the Army Dmitry Bulgakov, who was relieved of his post due to a transfer to another job, according to the statement. 

The Ukrainian military has said Mizintsev led the siege of the eastern Ukrainian port city of Mariupol. 

 

Shave the head, put on some pounds, a little eyeliner and he's the next Uncle Fester.

 

 

[InkaUtexas 26052]

Just now, atomheartbevo said:

Heh, I will say that if they throw 100,000 or more into Crimea, they could probably hold Crimea, but it would be hell keeping them supplied with food and water and ammo if Ukraine cuts off the freshwater and hits the Kerch bridge.

But it would be a  Pyrrhic victory for Putin.  The Ukrainians are working the rivers to their advantage in the heavy fighting they are doing now, and have shown they can cross when they need to, and they are also making moves that maximizes their artillery (amazing how that combined arms thing worked out for them).

I don't see how Putin survives in power if he mobilizes hundreds of thousand and can only hold onto Crimea - he would be holding less Ukrainian territory than he had back in February, at the cost of tens of thousands of dead Russians.

I don't think he can. He has to watch the southern zones. As mobilization becomes a thing, I would not overlook threats from other areas. The Tribes in the Caucus can always get rowdy. 

If Putin does not drop a nuke, he is not staying in power. The Turks are watching and can always send the tribes north.

We can hope his generals see it for what it is worth and someone takes him out. He is intel, not part of the military. That matters in their set up. 

[atomheartbevo 89777]

4 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

I don't think he can. He has to watch the southern zones. As mobilization becomes a thing, I would not overlook threats from other areas. The Tribes in the Caucus can always get rowdy. 

The Russian Ground Forces/Army itself is small - less than 300,000 troops. Since they aren't all in Ukraine, I wonder if he would try and replace some of the regular army troops at other outposts with mobilized forces and then send the regular troops to Ukraine.  But then those outposts are manned by extremely poorly-trained and led troops, which could be very, very bad if some of the republics heat up.

Hell, if Chechnya blew up right now, I doubt he could keep it.

[RDCanecutter 26462]

Wouldn't surprise me if most of these newly-mobilized end up staying inside Russia and pointing guns at other Russians.

[RDCanecutter 26462]

19 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited September 24, 2022 by RDCanecutter