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Русский корабль - иди нахуй


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32 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Yeah--so don't underestimate the number of Russians whoa re going to die of cholera, dysentery, and typhus.

Heck, Winter is Coming and that is all they, and most of their other mobilization compatriots, will have.  Bastards will be freezing to death before the other stuff can kill them.

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16 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Yes. I think every country and person who isn't you or a Russian mouthpiece is interested in de-escalation. If Russia announced they'd leave Ukraine and accept pre-2014 borders immediately, and return all the kids and families they stole from Ukraine, everyone would immediately say "Yup, great, where do we sign." So yes, everyone is interested in de-escalation, except you. 

I’m all for that. That’s Russian capitulation. 
 

That’s not what we’re talking about though.

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6 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

That was absolutely my first impression -- these are troops of the military of a "major power?"  They are living in absolute squalor.  We've seen that throughout this war -- when the UKA captures a russian position, the scene looks like a damned homeless camp in the woods off of 290.

Yeah, take what I wrote above and quintuple  it for winter.  They're gonna manage to make Valley Forge look like a Club Med before all is said and done.

I have seen Afghan Camps, Salvadoran Camps, Peruvian Camps. None we as bad as this.  Even the Bosnian Army's locations during the Siege of Sarajevo were in better condition.  

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1 hour ago, Humble Beast said:

Russia probably did it, but to think that there’s no reason for Ukraine/US to want those pipelines blown is kind of silly. 
 

Reasons Russia to do it. 

  • False flag to justify other coming attacks on European infrastructure. This could be all of it. 
  • Stir the pot among allies. 
  • There’s the theory about fines that Skipper mentioned. Although I don’t see how Putin cares about the rules. 

Reasons for US/allies to do it. 

  • Eliminates any small chance of a de-escalation or possibility of reversal of gas shutdowns. Gets rid of Putin’s only leverage. If you want Putin out it helps to eliminate any possible out for him before this war is resolved. 

The fact that it comes a day after Italy elects a right wing leader that states support for Ukraine, but has allies that have floated going back on Russian sanctions is unusual timing. Perhaps stop that trend before it even gets any legs elsewhere?
 

I'm still struggling with theories beyond false-flag ops or energy price manipulation.  Gazprom is still making deliveries to the EU via the Yamal-Europe pipeline, yanno, the big one that runs through Ukraine in which Gazprom pays transit fees to Ukraine for.  The 42.4mcm sold through the pipeline is considered normal demand under contract, with deliveries to Poland and Germany.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/eastward-gas-flows-via-yamal-europe-pipeline-rise-2022-09-27/

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2 minutes ago, Gravy Train said:

I'm still struggling with theories beyond false-flag ops or energy price manipulation.  Gazprom is still making deliveries to the EU via the Yamal-Europe pipeline, yanno, the big one that runs through Ukraine in which Gazprom pays transit fees to Ukraine for.  The 42.4mcm sold through the pipeline is considered normal demand under contract, with deliveries to Poland and Germany.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/eastward-gas-flows-via-yamal-europe-pipeline-rise-2022-09-27/

Username checks the box.

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2 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

No, that's exactly what was being discussed. Which you literally said the United States had zero interest in accepting, which is complete bullshit. If you want to argue otherwise, then show your fucking work. Don't just drop shit like "The US has zero interest in this conflict ending" while sitting back with your hands in the air claiming YOU want it, but America and it's politicians do not. THAT is what you were talking about before you attempted to once again poorly move the goalposts. 


Russian defeat and de-escalation of the conflict are two different things. 

We have no interest in this conflict ending until Russia is expelled from Ukraine.  That would constitute Russian defeat. 
 

Did we want de-escalation via resumption of Russian gas flows this winter? Depends. How would that occur? It would likely require easing of sanctions on Russia. We did not want that if they’re still occupying territory. I’m guessing we agree there. 
 

That particular scenario is important because that is part of what Putin was pursuing by cutting off gas to Europe. Put Europeans under pressure and weaken their support for Ukraine. Eventually perhaps have sanctions eased in exchange for energy. It was probably his best way to buy time now that things have turned against him.


 

 

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2 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Well, you're the expert on the subject. 

Yep.  Whatever gives Putin any sort of win, HB supports.  Whatever degrades the US and its standing in the world, HB supports.  He is a Russian anti-vaxxer troll, and always has been.  Dezinformatsiya is his mission and purpose.  Everyone who reads any post he makes should know that before they get to the first word.

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3 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

So a couple things, Radek Sikorski is broadly known as a loose cannon and he in fact had to resign from government in Poland for a leaked conversation in which he shit-talked the U.S. of all things.  He’s also Anne Applebaum’s husband.  Bottom line, MEP Sikorski is not getting special info from the U.S. to tweet. 
 

Second, the U.S. has every reason not to do this. We got Germany to do what we want and turn off NS2. Our big concern right now is oil and not gas, which provides more revenue to Russia. And finally— we are SHIT at skullduggery of this nature and WOULD get caught attacking NATO Allied infrastructure and crack what we have been wanting to build at the very moment we are getting the most value. 
 

This incident does nothing to actually hinder supplies of Russian gas to Europe. It took place outside of any state’s territorial waters thereby carefully avoiding invocation of Article 5. One country, and one country alone is trying to terrify Europeans into believing they are going to freeze and generally instilling chaos. This does a lot to help advance that narrative. And one country, and one country alone has lost any and all friends it has in Europe and spends its days talking shit and making  nuclear threats. Literally nothing to lose. Unlike Ukraine which has everything to lose by attacking Europe, or the U.S., which has somewhat less but still a lot. 
 

“Your friends are the ones fucking with you, not me, who openly hates you and has threatened to burn all of you alive.” Fuck, get a clue GRUHorn. 
 


 

If I had to make a list, gun to my head style, I would go:

Russia - Most likely suspect, but it is idiotic in the reasoning

Poland - proximity and could act to keep Germany in line

Some other state actor trying to stir the pot

US - we "can" do it, but there is no real reason. If it was to keep Germany in line, you just "convince" Poland to so it for you.

Ukraine - its possible I guess, but how?

Then everyone else.

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1 minute ago, Laxtonto said:

If I had to make a list, gun to my head style, I would go:

Russia - Most likely suspect, but it is idiotic in the reasoning

Poland - proximity and could act to keep Germany in line

Some other state actor trying to stir the pot

US - we "can" do it, but there is no real reason. If it was to keep Germany in line, you just "convince" Poland to so it for you.

Ukraine - its possible I guess, but how?

Then everyone else.

Your omission of Freedonia as a suspect nation makes me question your list, and our motives.  Why are you covering for Freedonia?

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2 hours ago, Chad Fuck said:

The one player who has consistently done stupid irrational shit since this whole debacle started is Russia. Everyone else seems to be acting rationally.

Therefore, Russia did it.

Monday Night Raw Yes GIF by WWE
 

In fact, the West has been extremely cautious/hesitant to do anything even remotely approaching radical.  Ukraine has physical access to Russian pipelines as well, but they are putting their efforts into military targets.

And if the West decided they were done with Russian gas, they sure as hell wouldn’t create an environmental problem, they’d simply stop paying.

Russia is the one country who has constantly been fucking with civilian infrastructure as a part of their policy.  Even as their troops in the field could desperately use some help from fancy guided missiles, Russian leadership has instead expended a tremendous amount of military resources up through today, attacking civilian infrastructure.

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4 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

If I had to make a list, gun to my head style, I would go:

Russia - Most likely suspect, but it is idiotic in the reasoning

Poland - proximity and could act to keep Germany in line

Some other state actor trying to stir the pot

US - we "can" do it, but there is no real reason. If it was to keep Germany in line, you just "convince" Poland to so it for you.

Ukraine - its possible I guess, but how?

Then everyone else.

Germany - they love to play the innocent victim card

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1 minute ago, 956 Worldwide said:

The only “hardliners” saying this shit are pure, uncut Russian disinformation channels aimed at convincing UA and Westerners that Uncle Vova has some real scary shit in reserve and so we better start playing nice or else the gloves come off.

You could have just said "Humble Beast," who literally repeats and amplifies those channels over and over and over.

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3 hours ago, ABSR said:

Have you not seen this chart?   WWII absolutely crushed them demographically as they lost a huge chunk of the breeding age population.  You can see the sine wave that has created for them over time.  That same dip/age group is now the 18-30 year olds where they need high birth rates (sustainability is 2.1 per couple).  I believe their last/recent rate was 1.6 and that was before having people bail on the country when the war started, when they are killed in the war and when they flee the country due to mobilization and soon to be martial law.

There is a reason Russia kidnapped close to 2 million Ukrainians including a massive number of kids (who likely still have parents or grandparents out there).

They could use immigration to help but no one wants to go there, and those that would want to emigrate are likely minorities and Russia does not want those...except to send to the Ukraine war.

 

Russian population (demographic) pyramid (structure) on January, 1st, 2022.png

This is a good post.  To World War II add the Red Terror, the Great Terror, de-kulakization, forced deportations, famine, and other Stalin and Lenin policies leading to excess mortality. 
 

The first half of the 20th century seriously screwed Russia and other Soviet republics’ growth rate to this day, especially Ukraine. 

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2 hours ago, Humble Beast said:

I think it’s pretty clear that our Govt has decided we have an opportunity to eliminate Putin by the end of this conflict and we are going to pursue that by several means.

If your enemy is shooting himself in the foot, don’t stop him.  Putin is working to eliminate himself.  

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11 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Wtf are you talking about? You’re a gotdamn Kremlinologist now and can spill the beans on the different factions and what they want to do? What are the names of the “hardliners?” What ministries or intelligence directorates or security apparatus do these hardliners control? Is it one that has the capacity to conduct offshore underwater demolition? What Russian security or military organization would have that capacity? 
 

You have no frame of reference, Donny.
 

The only “hardliners” saying this shit are pure, uncut Russian disinformation channels aimed at convincing UA and Westerners that Uncle Vova has some real scary shit in reserve and so we better start playing nice or else the gloves come off.

 

 

What are the chances we get a formal accusation?

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20 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Wtf are you talking about? You’re a gotdamn Kremlinologist now and can spill the beans on the different factions and what they want to do? What are the names of the “hardliners?” What ministries or intelligence directorates or security apparatus do these hardliners control? Is it one that has the capacity to conduct offshore underwater demolition? What Russian security or military organization would have that capacity? 
 

You have no frame of reference, Donny.
 

The only “hardliners” saying this shit are pure, uncut Russian disinformation channels aimed at convincing UA and Westerners that Uncle Vova has some real scary shit in reserve and so we better start playing nice or else the gloves come off.

No don’t you see Putin is actually doing his best to keep the “hard line” military leaders in check

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4 hours ago, NorthLoop said:

So I should encourage my son to learn Russian 

Just flash some dollars around.

One single guy can impregnate many women. I’m sure guys here would gladly take on that challenge.  

But without men to help with children (do Russian men actually help?), then the population might collapse.

In short, this is a disaster for Russia, especially for their ethnic minorities. 

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1 minute ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Oh look, the news aggregator you follow also reports the voting totals in LNR, DNR, Zaporizhia and Kherson as if it’s news and an actual vote that’s happening.  Wonder where you found this marginal Twitter account? 

 

Why are you spamming this board with this shit, it’s embarrassing. 

Well I guess noted Kremlin agent/Russian bot Peter Zeihan should be embarrassed because that’s where I first saw that account shared yesterday. 🤷🏻‍♂️
 

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37 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Oh look, the news aggregator you follow also reports the voting totals in LNR, DNR, Zaporizhia and Kherson as if it’s news and an actual vote that’s happening.  Wonder where you found this marginal Twitter account? 

 

Why are you spamming this board with this shit, it’s embarrassing. 

Bingo.  See the pro-Kremlin propaganda sources HB amplifies and repeats.  You are what you disseminate: a Kremlin mouthpiece.

He's a Kremlin dezinformatsiya practitioner, without much nuance to it.

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1 hour ago, SydneyCarton said:

This dude is 46 years old? Damn, that is a HARD 46. 

You know what else is hard?  Listening to his podcast right now.  It’s a recap of his life and stuff and how everything got to this point.  He wasn’t mobilized, but saw the writing on the wall and that they were going to close the borders.  

I feel for him - I listened to about 45 minutes in the background, and it’s a guy who has clearly had the wind taken out of his sails.

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