Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[Nice Guy Eddie 13523]

37 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

 

How many Russian troops are constantly being threatened with prison time or even a bullet if they do not follow orders to attack?

[Pato del Muerto 52575]

15 meter fighting is…close. Yikes. 
 

as for tactics, Ukraine is in a tight spot even if they want to go berserker on Russian civilians or other targets in Russia because they need to stay in the good graces of the US and EU for continued support with the conflict as well as for entrance into EU and NATO. 
 

 

[InkaUtexas 26083]

Round two in the north? Another blood bath if so. 

 

[WhatTheBuck 28797]

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

Something kind of humorous to brighten the mood

 

Wait a minute. Strike that. Reverse it.

[Rimbo 26059]

20 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

No, and as this shows— an office building that contains a consulate can’t really be “sovereign territory.” The facilities are inviolable but that’s governed by treaty and not because it’s another nation’s land. And the host government can, under treaty, come and tell the diplomats to GTFO. 
 

You may or may not remember that we shot a cruise missile into the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade by accident. There was a shitstorm but not war.   A deliberate attack on a diplomatic facility with the facility as the target would generally be treated as an act of war, but that’s not what we have here. We have a shitty Russian cruise missile. 

"accident"

 

[956 Worldwide 34749]

13 minutes ago, pantone159 said:

I think that the remains of the shot-down F-117 were there, and the attack (by B-2 iirc) was intentional, though we denied this.

Really, really doubtful on that. We knew exactly where it crashed and if there had been that much sensitivity on it, there were much better times and places and ways to get it guaranteed destroyed than blowing up the Chinese Embassy and igniting a shit storm. The (somewhat) more plausible theories are that they were helping the Serbs with comms. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13523]

5 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Round two in the north? Another blood bath if so. 

 

Makes sense that their mobilization efforts could be going after Kiev again.

[InkaUtexas 26083]

2 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Makes sense that their mobilization efforts could be going after Kiev again.

Well it is easier to surrender in the northern front. Need to get that message to the Russian troops. 

[Brisketexan 105298]

13 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Round two in the north? Another blood bath if so. 

 

 

8 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Makes sense that their mobilization efforts could be going after Kiev again.

This causes me some concern.  It's been my understanding that the UKA is manning that area with "home guard" type troops -- that is, perhaps not front-line with all the latest weapons, HIMARS, etc. (which is understandable).  The point being, IS this a vulnerability to mass attack?  We know the Russians won't bring their best tech there (they don't have a lot left), but they have a lot of bodies to throw at it.

[MillerEP 30495]

 

[InkaUtexas 26083]

1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

 

This causes me some concern.  It's been my understanding that the UKA is manning that area with "home guard" type troops -- that is, perhaps not front-line with all the latest weapons, HIMARS, etc. (which is understandable).  The point being, IS this a vulnerability to mass attack?  We know the Russians won't bring their best tech there (they don't have a lot left), but they have a lot of bodies to throw at it.

True, but the UA has had time to prepare that area. Let the Russians walk into already zeroed in kill zones and let the fixed artillery do its thing. I think the UA can handle them again. 

[SamsCorner 395]

57 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

 

Is Ambrose Burnside the General?

[WhatTheBuck 28797]

15 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Makes sense that their mobilization efforts could be going after Kiev again.

Not military sense. 

[Bateshorn 9936]

1 hour ago, Macanudo said:

One thing is for sure, Bob and the Russians both suck at logistics.

This Shaggy Deep Cut, I approve.

[MillerEP 30495]

 

[WhatTheBuck 28797]

7 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

but they have a lot of bodies to throw at it.

None of whom want to be there nor even know why they’re there. And who’s commanding them? What happens when their supply lines get cut?

[BrickHorn 18283]

Why are the instructions and warning notices for that drone in English?

[Brisketexan 105298]

2 minutes ago, WhatTheBuck said:

None of whom want to be there nor even know why they’re there. And who’s commanding them? What happens when their supply lines get cut?

If there are enough of them, and the northern front is lightly defended, quantity CAN have a quality all its own.  And if they have commisar-types pointing rifles at their backs, they'll go forward.  As for supplies, we're talking mostly light infantry in old tanks. They'll just go forward on foot and in stolen cars.

I'm not saying it's a winner for Russia, I'm just concerned that it could be a vulnerability.  The UKA can't be massed everywhere at once, that's the advantage that having a larger pool of men CAN give Russia.  Whether that advantage plays out is a question, but it is still some advantage.

[Macanudo 13010]

40 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

How many Russian troops are constantly being threatened with prison time or even a bullet if they do not follow orders to attack?

All of them.

[Gengs1 2583]

39 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Round two in the north? Another blood bath if so. 

 

Looks like it, they may try to take the Capitol again 

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

8 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

If there are enough of them, and the northern front is lightly defended, quantity CAN have a quality all its own.  And if they have commisar-types pointing rifles at their backs, they'll go forward.  As for supplies, we're talking mostly light infantry in old tanks. They'll just go forward on foot and in stolen cars.

I'm not saying it's a winner for Russia, I'm just concerned that it could be a vulnerability.  The UKA can't be massed everywhere at once, that's the advantage that having a larger pool of men CAN give Russia.  Whether that advantage plays out is a question, but it is still some advantage.

I don’t think Europe will sit back and allow RU to take Kiev at this point. It’s highly unlikely they can mount an offensive at this point, but if that came to be, I think you would see other countries bring troops to bear to prevent it from happening.

[InkaUtexas 26083]

10 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

If there are enough of them, and the northern front is lightly defended, quantity CAN have a quality all its own.  And if they have commisar-types pointing rifles at their backs, they'll go forward.  As for supplies, we're talking mostly light infantry in old tanks. They'll just go forward on foot and in stolen cars.

I'm not saying it's a winner for Russia, I'm just concerned that it could be a vulnerability.  The UKA can't be massed everywhere at once, that's the advantage that having a larger pool of men CAN give Russia.  Whether that advantage plays out is a question, but it is still some advantage.

Versus Ukrainian trained troops in prepared defenses, including mine fields/roads, backed by superior artillery. A defender who has these things is at a massive advantage. Russia tried this before, and look what happened. They were bogged down on the roads. Every bridge has been prepared to be blown, river crossings reconned, the civilian population removed. Yes, it will suck, but I will say the UA holds them back, bleeds them and pushes them back.  

It could be designed to get Belarus to get involved in combat operations, so it is time to tell them that if Russia lets one troop cross the border again, full sanctions on their asses. 

[KYHorn 17142]

25 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

True, but the UA has had time to prepare that area. Let the Russians walk into already zeroed in kill zones and let the fixed artillery do its thing. I think the UA can handle them again. 

 

28 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

 

This causes me some concern.  It's been my understanding that the UKA is manning that area with "home guard" type troops -- that is, perhaps not front-line with all the latest weapons, HIMARS, etc. (which is understandable).  The point being, IS this a vulnerability to mass attack?  We know the Russians won't bring their best tech there (they don't have a lot left), but they have a lot of bodies to throw at it.

 

14 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

If there are enough of them, and the northern front is lightly defended, quantity CAN have a quality all its own.  And if they have commisar-types pointing rifles at their backs, they'll go forward.  As for supplies, we're talking mostly light infantry in old tanks. They'll just go forward on foot and in stolen cars.

I'm not saying it's a winner for Russia, I'm just concerned that it could be a vulnerability.  The UKA can't be massed everywhere at once, that's the advantage that having a larger pool of men CAN give Russia.  Whether that advantage plays out is a question, but it is still some advantage.

It seems more likely that they're just moving in the new mobilized men to train them there because it gives them the added advantage of forcing UA to hold troops in that area. I'm hoping the US has the same level of intelligence on this that they had at the beginning, because that would provide tremendous insight for UA on how to proceed.

[Brisketexan 105298]

3 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Versus Ukrainian trained troops in prepared defenses, including mine fields/roads, backed by superior artillery. A defender who has these things is at a massive advantage. Russia tried this before, and look what happened. They were bogged down on the roads. Every bridge has been prepared to be blown, river crossings reconned, the civilian population removed. Yes, it will suck, but I will say the UA holds them back, bleeds them and pushes them back.  

It could be designed to get Belarus to get involved in combat operations, so it is time to tell them that if Russia lets one troop cross the border again, full sanctions on their asses. 

Like Belarus could even tell it's been sanctioned?  Seriously.

I don't know enough about how and where the UA is deployed (I'm sure that's by operational design, good for them), but it sure seems like they have a shitload of their topline troops and equipment otherwise engaged in the east and south.

I'd like to think that the home guard has plenty of artillery pre-zeroed on choke points and such, and we're about to enter fall mud season, so the same choke point issues will exist soon, but then, we'll get frozen ground.  Fighting a war in three directions, plus air defense, is tough.  They handled it once, I like their odds, but still....it's a lot.

Let me worry about this one.  It's what I do.

EDIT -- oh, and to follow the post above, I damn well hope we have similar intel as we had the last time.  Ukraine won't be surprised by a single move if that's the case.

Edited October 10, 2022 by Brisketexan

[Captainant 27752]

26 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

Why are the instructions and warning notices for that drone in English?

because that's the user interface for the DJI drone flight application

[Parliament 14288]

Zeihan bringin' HEAT in this one.  Spoilered for length.

Spoiler

I’m going to be discussing some disturbing aspects of the Ukraine War today. Consider this your parental advisory.
 
In the aftermath of the Russia’s failed Kyiv offensive, the world became aware of the omnipresent nature of Russian war crimes. The Russian retreat exposed a raft of abuse, kidnappings, rapes, tortures and murders for the world to see. This awareness has expanded and deepened with every Ukrainian counteroffensive: Kharkiv, Izyum, Lyman, Kherson. European radio intercepts from throughout the occupied territories suggest a universal pattern.
 
Part of these war crimes fall under the category of military operating procedure. When the Russian leadership realized the Ukrainians were not going to simply roll over, Ukraine’s civilian population shifted in the Kremlin mind from a non-issue to an urgent problem. The solution was to target civilian infrastructure to make the land broadly uninhabitable. The goal was to convince as much of the population as possible to flee. Refugees leave and don’t fight. War crimes in a military-strategic sense.
 
At the local level, war crimes perpetrated against those who remained behind have been far more…personal. There is now ample proof from many of the liberated towns of not simply Russian soldiers robbing and killing civilians, but of unit commanders setting up rape clinics and torture chambers for use by the men under their command. War crimes in a tactical sense.
 
But the common thread in all this is that the war crimes have been…casual. Even incidental. While the Kremlin clearly hasn’t had a problem with any of it, it is not clear the Kremlin actually ordered the mal-behavior. Most of those torture centers were not set up in occupation headquarters, but in seemingly randomly-selected homes or schools or gardens. There is little evidence the occupiers were attempting to extract information. They just wanted to make people scream. The very existence of rape clinics speaks for itself.
 
As you would expect from casual crimes, there was zero effort to conceal such criminal activity. Maybe the Russians thought as I did during the war’s early months: that Russia could not help but win the war, and so there was no risk of discovery by authorities who might call them to account. The alternative, that the Russians just didn’t see anything wrong with what they were doing, is difficult to wrap the mind around. I don’t know and I’m not sure I want to understand this sort of behavior. It isn’t so much callous and immoral as pervasive and amoral. Bodies were dumped into mass graves purely as a disposal strategy. The Russians didn’t attempt to hide anything. There was no burning to destroy evidence, or even efforts to rehabilitate the soil above the mass graves to obscure them. Murder victims from the rape and torture clinics were simply dumped nearby. Typically right outside. Sometimes in the next room.
 
With the bulk of Europe’s war crimes investigators now operating in Ukraine, fresh atrocities are being discovered almost daily. The challenge isn’t to find evidence. It is everywhere. No, the challenge is to fully document the tsunami of carnage before a stray artillery round damages the evidence, or before the Ukrainians liberate another town with its own encyclopedia of horrors, forcing the investigators to move on.
 
One more item is unique about this war. Even at the height of the Holocaust, the Nazi government didn’t discuss what they were doing publicly, and what (little) discussion there was across German society strongly denied what was occurring. That is not contemporary Russia. Russian propaganda is screaming for the deliberate and thorough targeting of the Ukrainian population.
 
Which brings us to today.
 
On October 10 the Russians unleashed their biggest missile barrage of the war, sending over 100 large-scale munitions across Ukraine. To my knowledge, at the time of this writing roughly eight hours after the first missiles fell, only one target of “military” significance was hit: the office of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Instead, nearly all missiles were aimed at densely populated regions, with the bulk of the assault occurring during rush hour when Ukrainians were out and about.
 
The targets and timing tell us one of two things: either that the Russians are running out of precision munitions and were doing little more than flinging ordinance in the general direction of population clusters, or that the express goal was to kill the maximum number of civilians. Both could be true. Both are very clearly war crimes. But this time, the war crimes are in the full light of day for the world to see. Russian state media is abuzz with excitement at the damage inflicted. And that is new.
 
The shift in approach is the hallmark of Russian General Sergei Surovikin, the new commander of the Russian war effort. He was appointed but two days before today’s missile swarm. Surovikin is greatly respected by the genocide wing of Russian society, with none other than Yevegeny Progozhin calling him “Russia’s best general”. Progozhin is the founder of the Wagner Group, the paramilitary organization the Russian government uses to provide a fig leaf of legal separation between its war-crime-riddled operations around the world and the Kremlin. Specifically, Surovikin was the commander responsible for the siege-starve-surrender policy that destroyed Aleppo in the Syrian Civil War.
 
Russian cruelty in the Ukraine War to this point has had the feel of standard operating procedure, rather than any conscious state effort to inflict human suffering. That now appears to be changing. Surovikin’s elevation to theater commander means Putin has decided war crimes are to no longer to be casual, but deliberate. No longer incidental, but celebrated. The new approach combines the statist aspects of Nazi-style genocide with lynching. Russia is becoming a maskless KKK in state form.
 
As the reality of the new tenors and goals of Russian operations sinks through layers of disbelief and incomprehension, views will shift.
 
In the United States, I have to believe that the public nature of today’s attacks combined with the loudly-publicized atrocities to come will finally break the hold Russian state propaganda has on the Republican Party. It’s funny. Rationalizing Russian actions, siding with the Russians on nuclear policy, asserting that Russia’s aggression is somehow America’s fault, calling Russia’s victims fascists – these aren’t only old pieces of Soviet propaganda which date back to the 1970s, they are the same lies which once fooled the idiot wing of the American Left until just a few years ago. Having egg on one’s face is never fun, but with the evidence no longer simply mounting but soon to be showcased on Russian television, scales will fall from eyes and positions will change. Elon Musk, fresh off asking the Ukrainians to surrender territory, must feel particularly…the correct word is probably “stupid”. We might – might – even see Fox’s Tucker Carlson edge somewhat closer to reality in the weeks ahead.
 
Of far greater importance than American domestic realizations will be the sucker-punch to the European gut, that history is well and truly back. That there is no returning to the cozy pre-Trump era when the Americans paid for everything but asked for little, and the Russians were happy to limit their abuses to their own population while dumping a half a continent of raw materials into Europe’s waiting arms.
 
Nowhere will the shift in mindset be more laden with implications and haunted by history than in Germany. That their consulate in Kyiv was destroyed in today’s attack underlines the point for Berlin. Germans have a visceral understanding of precisely where Russia’s new path leads, and they fear – probably rightly – that the Russians are on a sharper angle down than 1930s and 1940s Germany. Expect the Germans, within their limited capacity, to up their actions to support Ukraine while intensifying efforts to sequester all things Russian from the European system. It is a position which will hurt the German economy badly, but with most Russian energy already cut out of German supplies, much of the economic damage has already been done and is irreparable.
 
The emotional damage, however, is yet to come.

 

[InkaUtexas 26083]

2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Like Belarus could even tell it's been sanctioned?  Seriously.

I don't know enough about how and where the UA is deployed (I'm sure that's by operational design, good for them), but it sure seems like they have a shitload of their topline troops and equipment otherwise engaged in the east and south.

I'd like to think that the home guard has plenty of artillery pre-zeroed on choke points and such, and we're about to enter fall mud season, so the same choke point issues will exist soon, but then, we'll get frozen ground.  Fighting a war in three directions, plus air defense, is tough.  They handled it once, I like their odds, but still....it's a lot.

Let me worry about this one.  It's what I do.

EDIT -- oh, and to follow the post above, I damn well hope we have similar intel as we had the last time.  Ukraine won't be surprised by a single move if that's the case.

I am pretty sure they have received some "advice" on how to prep the north. There are some videos of the Territorial Defense troops on that border. They look well fed, well equipped and pretty determined. 

It is fine to worry, but sometimes having faith is a good thing. 

[Brisketexan 105298]

Just now, InkaUtexas said:

It is fine to worry, but sometimes having faith is a good thing. 

I prefer "worry.....but also have a metric shitton of artillery support."

[InkaUtexas 26083]

Just now, Brisketexan said:

I prefer "worry.....but also have a metric shitton of artillery support."

So lets send them some more.

Another consideration is a lot of Ukrainians are either finishing up or close to finishing their training in NATO countries. Germany, Poland and England are training large contingents. They can be brought in and augment. 

Stabilize the southern and eastern fronts, use reinforcements in the north. Plus what air support will the Russians have? If they have it why are they not using more of it? UA's bases are closer to the northern areas. 

 

[InkaUtexas 26083]

Here is the TDF's twitter feed. Worth a follow. 

 

[Brisketexan 105298]

1 minute ago, InkaUtexas said:

Here is the TDF's twitter feed. Worth a follow. 

 

Happy hunting to them....

[Trey3216 15355]

56 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

 

This causes me some concern.  It's been my understanding that the UKA is manning that area with "home guard" type troops -- that is, perhaps not front-line with all the latest weapons, HIMARS, etc. (which is understandable).  The point being, IS this a vulnerability to mass attack?  We know the Russians won't bring their best tech there (they don't have a lot left), but they have a lot of bodies to throw at it.

Don't forget that they have had constant waves of folks being trained in other countries.  I wouldn't bet against them having quite a few "trained/modernized/professional" military in the area, and much, much more than Russia realizes.   

[Sbbruin 21867]

6 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Zelenskyy is so good at this.  Lots of Vatnik rumors about him fleeing, hiding in a bunker in Western Ukraine. Here he is in the government quarter in Kyiv. 
 

 

He has really met the moment.  He no doubt hadn’t anticipated a Russian invasion when he decided to run for President, but a person’s character is defined by their response to times of crisis.  And man if he hasn’t stepped up and stepped forward under intense pressure.

[Ghost of LL 15539]

So they're shipping Russian conscripts into Belarus in cattle cars?  So how are those guys supposed to get to Kyiv?  Walk?

If the Russians think human-wave assaults work in 2022, they're about to be painfully disabused of that notion.

[Parliament 14288]

11 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Here is the TDF's twitter feed. Worth a follow. 

 

Draganov's?  Was hoping for something a bit more "NATO."  6.5 Creed even.

[Trey3216 15355]

1 hour ago, MillerEP said:

 

3 minutes to get to the point, but IYKYK.

 

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

why did Russia not target governmental/defense department buildings in Kiev?

Edited October 10, 2022 by DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt

[YGIFS 19452]

2 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

why did Russian not target governmental/defense department buildings in Kiev?

Because those have bomb shelters, more reinforced construction, and safety protocol training to move everybody out of harm's way within just a few minutes.  Most civilian buildings don't have all three of those.  Thus, more destruction, loss, and life, and ensuing terror.  This is the line of thinking of a very stable genius named Putin.  The handful of dipshits I know still blaming this war on the U.S. and/or taking Putin's side is winnowing by the day.  Or at the very least, they're learn to keep their moronic opinions to themselves for the first time in a few years.

[ABSR 5323]

16 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

956 gets it.  Contrary evidence doesn't make those guys change their minds -- it only makes them dig in.  Putin could come out and say "my goal is to butcher as many babies as I can, that's all I care about," and they'd never waver in their position.

I don't know what would be the tipping point, but we can look back to Lindbergh and his pro-German faction in the build up and start of WWII, and he and that group did see the light.    So this will change some people on that side and the longer it continues more will come over.

[InkaUtexas 26083]

9 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Draganov's?  Was hoping for something a bit more "NATO."  6.5 Creed even.

Draganov's are a mean weapon and they have the capacity to manufacture that ammo or buy from neighbors. 

[Parliament 14288]

9 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

why did Russia not target governmental/defense department buildings in Kiev?

Simply put?  It's not their way.  Russia gonna Russia.

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

10 minutes ago, YGIFS said:

Because those have bomb shelters, more reinforced construction, and safety protocol training to move everybody out of harm's way within just a few minutes.  Most civilian buildings don't have all three of those.  Thus, more destruction, loss, and life, and ensuing terror.  This is the line of thinking of a very stable genius named Putin.  The handful of dipshits I know still blaming this war on the U.S. and/or taking Putin's side is winnowing by the day.  Or at the very least, they're learn to keep their moronic opinions to themselves for the first time in a few years.

I kind of get that, but the entirety of the attack killed like, what, 11 people? Not exactly a successful attack if maximum carnage was the goal. It would seem more symbolic to hit the seats of power, even if it wasn't going to kill a lot of people.

[956 Worldwide 34749]

11 minutes ago, YGIFS said:

Because those have bomb shelters, more reinforced construction, and safety protocol training to move everybody out of harm's way within just a few minutes.  Most civilian buildings don't have all three of those.  Thus, more destruction, loss, and life, and ensuing terror.  This is the line of thinking of a very stable genius named Putin.  The handful of dipshits I know still blaming this war on the U.S. and/or taking Putin's side is winnowing by the day.  Or at the very least, they're learn to keep their moronic opinions to themselves for the first time in a few years.

They did target them.  There’s reports that a presidential admin building was targeted. That video I shared of the student ducking debris is on the same street as the SBU building, albeit a fair distance from it by guided missile standards. Some of the stuff they did hit— a park with no one in it, the underside of a tourist bridge- are not things they were aiming at. 
 

Now, don’t get me wrong, they have targeted residences, in Zaporizhia it’s been especially apparent. But the Kyiv stuff, all indications are they just suck at this. Which we’ve seen. 

[Rimbo 26059]

41 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Zeihan bringin' HEAT in this one.  Spoilered for length.

  Hide contents

I’m going to be discussing some disturbing aspects of the Ukraine War today. Consider this your parental advisory.
 
In the aftermath of the Russia’s failed Kyiv offensive, the world became aware of the omnipresent nature of Russian war crimes. The Russian retreat exposed a raft of abuse, kidnappings, rapes, tortures and murders for the world to see. This awareness has expanded and deepened with every Ukrainian counteroffensive: Kharkiv, Izyum, Lyman, Kherson. European radio intercepts from throughout the occupied territories suggest a universal pattern.
 
Part of these war crimes fall under the category of military operating procedure. When the Russian leadership realized the Ukrainians were not going to simply roll over, Ukraine’s civilian population shifted in the Kremlin mind from a non-issue to an urgent problem. The solution was to target civilian infrastructure to make the land broadly uninhabitable. The goal was to convince as much of the population as possible to flee. Refugees leave and don’t fight. War crimes in a military-strategic sense.
 
At the local level, war crimes perpetrated against those who remained behind have been far more…personal. There is now ample proof from many of the liberated towns of not simply Russian soldiers robbing and killing civilians, but of unit commanders setting up rape clinics and torture chambers for use by the men under their command. War crimes in a tactical sense.
 
But the common thread in all this is that the war crimes have been…casual. Even incidental. While the Kremlin clearly hasn’t had a problem with any of it, it is not clear the Kremlin actually ordered the mal-behavior. Most of those torture centers were not set up in occupation headquarters, but in seemingly randomly-selected homes or schools or gardens. There is little evidence the occupiers were attempting to extract information. They just wanted to make people scream. The very existence of rape clinics speaks for itself.
 
As you would expect from casual crimes, there was zero effort to conceal such criminal activity. Maybe the Russians thought as I did during the war’s early months: that Russia could not help but win the war, and so there was no risk of discovery by authorities who might call them to account. The alternative, that the Russians just didn’t see anything wrong with what they were doing, is difficult to wrap the mind around. I don’t know and I’m not sure I want to understand this sort of behavior. It isn’t so much callous and immoral as pervasive and amoral. Bodies were dumped into mass graves purely as a disposal strategy. The Russians didn’t attempt to hide anything. There was no burning to destroy evidence, or even efforts to rehabilitate the soil above the mass graves to obscure them. Murder victims from the rape and torture clinics were simply dumped nearby. Typically right outside. Sometimes in the next room.
 
With the bulk of Europe’s war crimes investigators now operating in Ukraine, fresh atrocities are being discovered almost daily. The challenge isn’t to find evidence. It is everywhere. No, the challenge is to fully document the tsunami of carnage before a stray artillery round damages the evidence, or before the Ukrainians liberate another town with its own encyclopedia of horrors, forcing the investigators to move on.
 
One more item is unique about this war. Even at the height of the Holocaust, the Nazi government didn’t discuss what they were doing publicly, and what (little) discussion there was across German society strongly denied what was occurring. That is not contemporary Russia. Russian propaganda is screaming for the deliberate and thorough targeting of the Ukrainian population.
 
Which brings us to today.
 
On October 10 the Russians unleashed their biggest missile barrage of the war, sending over 100 large-scale munitions across Ukraine. To my knowledge, at the time of this writing roughly eight hours after the first missiles fell, only one target of “military” significance was hit: the office of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Instead, nearly all missiles were aimed at densely populated regions, with the bulk of the assault occurring during rush hour when Ukrainians were out and about.
 
The targets and timing tell us one of two things: either that the Russians are running out of precision munitions and were doing little more than flinging ordinance in the general direction of population clusters, or that the express goal was to kill the maximum number of civilians. Both could be true. Both are very clearly war crimes. But this time, the war crimes are in the full light of day for the world to see. Russian state media is abuzz with excitement at the damage inflicted. And that is new.
 
The shift in approach is the hallmark of Russian General Sergei Surovikin, the new commander of the Russian war effort. He was appointed but two days before today’s missile swarm. Surovikin is greatly respected by the genocide wing of Russian society, with none other than Yevegeny Progozhin calling him “Russia’s best general”. Progozhin is the founder of the Wagner Group, the paramilitary organization the Russian government uses to provide a fig leaf of legal separation between its war-crime-riddled operations around the world and the Kremlin. Specifically, Surovikin was the commander responsible for the siege-starve-surrender policy that destroyed Aleppo in the Syrian Civil War.
 
Russian cruelty in the Ukraine War to this point has had the feel of standard operating procedure, rather than any conscious state effort to inflict human suffering. That now appears to be changing. Surovikin’s elevation to theater commander means Putin has decided war crimes are to no longer to be casual, but deliberate. No longer incidental, but celebrated. The new approach combines the statist aspects of Nazi-style genocide with lynching. Russia is becoming a maskless KKK in state form.
 
As the reality of the new tenors and goals of Russian operations sinks through layers of disbelief and incomprehension, views will shift.
 
In the United States, I have to believe that the public nature of today’s attacks combined with the loudly-publicized atrocities to come will finally break the hold Russian state propaganda has on the Republican Party. It’s funny. Rationalizing Russian actions, siding with the Russians on nuclear policy, asserting that Russia’s aggression is somehow America’s fault, calling Russia’s victims fascists – these aren’t only old pieces of Soviet propaganda which date back to the 1970s, they are the same lies which once fooled the idiot wing of the American Left until just a few years ago. Having egg on one’s face is never fun, but with the evidence no longer simply mounting but soon to be showcased on Russian television, scales will fall from eyes and positions will change. Elon Musk, fresh off asking the Ukrainians to surrender territory, must feel particularly…the correct word is probably “stupid”. We might – might – even see Fox’s Tucker Carlson edge somewhat closer to reality in the weeks ahead.
 
Of far greater importance than American domestic realizations will be the sucker-punch to the European gut, that history is well and truly back. That there is no returning to the cozy pre-Trump era when the Americans paid for everything but asked for little, and the Russians were happy to limit their abuses to their own population while dumping a half a continent of raw materials into Europe’s waiting arms.
 
Nowhere will the shift in mindset be more laden with implications and haunted by history than in Germany. That their consulate in Kyiv was destroyed in today’s attack underlines the point for Berlin. Germans have a visceral understanding of precisely where Russia’s new path leads, and they fear – probably rightly – that the Russians are on a sharper angle down than 1930s and 1940s Germany. Expect the Germans, within their limited capacity, to up their actions to support Ukraine while intensifying efforts to sequester all things Russian from the European system. It is a position which will hurt the German economy badly, but with most Russian energy already cut out of German supplies, much of the economic damage has already been done and is irreparable.
 
The emotional damage, however, is yet to come.

 

 

This is a combination of fan fiction and wishful thinking. I dearly hope this happens, but at this point, it seems hard to imagine.

Research has shown that for people to change their mind on deeply held beliefs, they have to go through the same grieving process they do when a close relative or friend dies. It does happen, but it sure as shit ain't easy.

 

30 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Yeah, no. They will not. They’ll blame Ukraine and Biden and say that Trump would never allow it to happen but since it did Putin should win. 

 

This seems more likely. It's like expecting Sooners to start rooting for the Longhorns.

[Sbbruin 21867]

23 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

So they're shipping Russian conscripts into Belarus in cattle cars?  So how are those guys supposed to get to Kyiv?  Walk?

If the Russians think human-wave assaults work in 2022, they're about to be painfully disabused of that notion.

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

2 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

They did target them.  There’s reports that a presidential admin building was targeted. That video I shared of the student ducking debris is on the same street as the SBU building, albeit a fair distance from it by guided missile standards. Some of the stuff they did hit— a park with no one in it, the underside of a tourist bridge- are not things they were aiming at. 
 

Now, don’t get me wrong, they have targeted residences, in Zaporizhia it’s been especially apparent. But the Kyiv stuff, all indications are they just suck at this. Which we’ve seen. 

If true, can you imagine Putin's response once he was told virtually all missiles were either shot down or missed their targets? hahahahahahahaha

[956 Worldwide 34749]

29 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

So they're shipping Russian conscripts into Belarus in cattle cars?  So how are those guys supposed to get to Kyiv?  Walk?

If the Russians think human-wave assaults work in 2022, they're about to be painfully disabused of that notion.

This motherfucker had his army living in gotdamn tents in the Belarusian woods and foraging for food for weeks at least before he invaded. And that was winter.  I don’t think anything soon is happening on that front, but it solves a couple issues:

- Keeps Ukraine at least partly tied down and away from fronts where they are advancing 

- Gets pissed off and demoralized mobilized troops away from home and into unfamiliar territory where they can’t cause trouble, are reliant on the army, and can’t just walk away easily 

- Keeps NATO on edge 

They may very well take their sweet time building up. We won’t see human wave style attacks.

”Isn’t it cute how we talk about soldiers in the field “foraging” like they’re gathering berries and snaring little creatures and not stealing chickens and canned goods from peasants? 

 

[MNLonghornFUKM 8817]

So they're shipping Russian conscripts into Belarus in cattle cars?  So how are those guys supposed to get to Kyiv?  Walk?
If the Russians think human-wave assaults work in 2022, they're about to be painfully disabused of that notion.

Uber/Lyft

[YGIFS 19452]

Maybe the local Belarusian governors can bus them over into Ukraine, en masse to totally own Zelensky!  

It's not enough they gotta buy their own weapons and equipment after a two-week online training class.  But now they gotta stand at Belarusian stoplights with cardboard signs that say, "Need ride to Ukraine Front (and $ for vodka)"  

Edited October 10, 2022 by YGIFS

[InkaUtexas 26083]

2 minutes ago, YGIFS said:

Maybe the local Belarusian governors can bus them over into Ukraine, en masse to totally own Zelensky!  

It's not enough they gotta buy their own weapons and equipment after a two-week online training class.  But now they gotta stand at Belarusian stoplights with cardboard signs that say, "Need ride to Ukraine Front (and $ for vodka)"  

LMAO, invasion by Lada. Great marketing campaign for other despots around the globe. Imagine an invasion force led by these drivers.