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Eastwood

By Eastwood
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Trey3216

Trey3216 15325

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, YGIFS said:

Maybe the local Belarusian governors can bus them over into Ukraine, en masse to totally own Zelensky!  

It's not enough they gotta buy their own weapons and equipment after a two-week online training class.  But now they gotta stand at Belarusian stoplights with cardboard signs that say, "Need ride to Ukraine Front (and $ for vodka)"  

Awwwww.  Poor New York  

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AUS-97HORN
AUS-97HORN

For the love of Christ woman,  stop posting the same fucking thing every 20 mins just to make your neurotic self feel better.     Bring something useful to the thread other than your inane babbli

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InkaUtexas
InkaUtexas

I volunteered today. Log/Admin role to replace people for 30-60 days. The operation is in the west, or should the Orcs win will be pulled back behind the NATO wall. Either way the humanitarian effort

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Scheiss Meister

Scheiss Meister 8406

Posted
Posted

I imagine that Belarussian folks will love having less trained, less motivated, and less disciplined Russian troops occupying their territory for the winter.  The foraging will not win Belarussian hearts and minds, I'm sure.

When the Russians mass in preparation for crossing into Ukraine again, will Ukraine shoot artillery across the border to start atritting the Russian formations before they cross, or will they wait until they are on Ukrainian soil?  Waiting would give Russia the advantage of deploying their forces into less vulnerable formations.  Hitting them in Belarus might bring Belarus into the conflict. There are some operational challenges there for Ukraine.

I'm sure that troops massed in Russia near the border would draw Ukrainian fire well into Russia, since they are already involved, so I don't think that Russia will attack in the Kharkiv-Sumy area.  But I'm a broke-dick old Marine enlisted man.  What do I know?

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YGIFS

YGIFS 19449

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Awwwww.  Poor New York  

I don't feel bad for New York.  I feel bad for they have to take a bus to the mass grave them and their platoon will soon find themselves at the bottom of.  At least in a BTR, you feel some sense of pride with your military and country insignia on the sides.  Instead, you're on whatever the Belarusian equivalent of Greyhound is, seat 17B next to a woman that smells like whiskey and feet.  

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safe sex

safe sex 11689

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

What we need now is now more arguments on either side but acceptance that either side is polarized, but fuck Russia (and most likely China as well) anyways. Allow the old Cold War hatred come back and put aside our differences. This in many ways is what is happening in Poland and it’s something we need to embrace here in the US. 

That would be cool, but...

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dj2e0w9VAAAraKs

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YGIFS

YGIFS 19449

Posted
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4 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

"Since I dropped you off at a location where you weren't immediately killed by enemy fire, I'd appreciate a 5-star review!"

"Hey Boris, why is there such high surge pricing for rides leaving the area near Ukraine we're headed towards now?  

Couldn't be that hard for Poland or Latvia to send some scruff-looking operators into Belarus with fake credentials to take over a bus or train route filled with Russian soldiers heading to the front.  Announce the bus is pulling over for a restroom break in a remote area.  Drive gets off, rolls a few grenades down the aisle, jumps out, and bars the door.  First thing will need is a clever catchphrase to say right before they go off

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 104826

Posted
Posted
Just now, YGIFS said:

"Hey Boris, why is there such high surge pricing for rides leaving the area near Ukraine we're headed towards now?  

Couldn't be that hard for Poland or Latvia to send some scruff-looking operators into Belarus with fake credentials to take over a bus or train route filled with Russian soldiers heading to the front.  Announce the bus is pulling over for a restroom break in a remote area.  Drive gets off, rolls a few grenades down the aisle, jumps out, and bars the door.  First thing will need is a clever catchphrase to say right before they go off

"No cruce en frente del autobús."

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RDCanecutter

RDCanecutter 26351

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Mebbe it ain't even about sending Mobiks through Belarus into Ukraine from the north. Mebbe it's just about parking a few extra thousand dudes with AKs inside Belarus, where if Lukashenko sneezes, there's another revolt, and if he farts, the Poles come rambling through his now-tankless forces to see if a new rose trellis would look nice on the south wall of great-gramama's old country home just west of the 1938 boundary.

Or hell, maybe they are just the pimp hand that Putin holds over Lukashenko himself in case he gets squishy.

Anyway, just drop a barrel-bomb on this Syrian War psycho general they put in charge, then see what the next one tries.

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Scheiss Meister

Scheiss Meister 8406

Posted
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3 minutes ago, RDCanecutter said:

Mebbe it ain't even about sending Mobiks through Belarus into Ukraine from the north. Mebbe it's just about parking a few extra thousand dudes with AKs inside Belarus, where if Lukashenko sneezes, there's another revolt, and if he farts, the Poles come rambling through his now-tankless forces to see if a new rose trellis would look nice on the south wall of great-gramama's old country home just west of the 1938 boundary.

Or hell, maybe they are just the pimp hand that Putin holds over Lukashenko himself in case he gets squishy.

Anyway, just drop a barrel-bomb on this Syrian War psycho general they put in charge, then see what the next one tries.

Hopefully Ukraine has their own version of Carlos Hathcock working his way to a shot at the psycho general right now.

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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 25671

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, RDCanecutter said:

Mebbe it ain't even about sending Mobiks through Belarus into Ukraine from the north. Mebbe it's just about parking a few extra thousand dudes with AKs inside Belarus, where if Lukashenko sneezes, there's another revolt, and if he farts, the Poles come rambling through his now-tankless forces to see if a new rose trellis would look nice on the south wall of great-gramama's old country home just west of the 1938 boundary.

Or hell, maybe they are just the pimp hand that Putin holds over Lukashenko himself in case he gets squishy.

Anyway, just drop a barrel-bomb on this Syrian War psycho general they put in charge, then see what the next one tries.

I love how Belarus is giving Russia tanks they bought from Russia. 

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TexasEd

TexasEd 8066

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Posted
4 hours ago, WhatTheBuck said:

Suppose you were a Russian general. Where would you target your tactical nuke in order to keep Crimea?

 

4 hours ago, MagicSoccerSpray said:

 

The narrow entrance to the peninsula if/when Ukrainian forces start to come across.

 

 

4 hours ago, WhatTheBuck said:

So...Crimea or right on its doorstep. And that would hold it? For how long?

I should probably add that the Russians currently occupy that space so you’re assuming Ukrainian forces will retake all of that land. That’s still a long way away.

Contaminating that area with radiation would potentially have fallout in Crimea and likely contaminate the fresh water supply to Crimea.

Great choice.

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Laxtonto

Laxtonto 12075

Posted
Posted (edited)
27 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

we can't let the Russians just sit back and lob missiles all winter

I got a feeling that the next step is to make sure they can take the damn and drive into Nova Kakhovka to cut off the water supply for Crimea and force Russia to decide if they want to transport water, food, ammo, or fuel during the winter.

Combine that with little to no real pipelines into the Crimea for both Oil or Gas, the Kerch bridge damage, and an oncoming winter and things could get really uncomfortable. If Russia does not transport in water, we are looking at a humanitarian crisis and a degradation in combat effectiveness. If they do, you have to reduce rail traffic for other needed supplies, which once again impacts combat effectiveness. The best case I guess would be to limit heating oil in lieu of transporting water and hope for a mild winter, but even that is just making a poor decision because the other options are worse.

The four things that could foster a collapse over the winter and end this would be the Ukrainians driving to Melitopol and splitting the front and effectively starving off the Crimea,  hoping the river in Kherson and then shutting off water and rail in the Crimea, the collapse of Russian northern front and the capture of Luhansk and then shutting off all supplies coming in via rail, or the invasion of Kyiv and the collapse of the Ukrainian government.

 

The latest retaliation with what is Russia's limited stocks of cruise missiles implies that they are constrained on the ground and need to do "something" from a political visibility perspective. That also implies that there is limited options for helping the current troops on the ground. The Ukraine will make advances over the next few months, but there are only a few areas that can really see any major impact on the conflict.

There is going to be a lot of heartache and bloodshed the next 4 months or so and we are most likely entering the most decisive time frame of the war.

Edited by Laxtonto
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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89538

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

That video I shared of the student ducking debris is on the same street as the SBU building, albeit a fair distance from it by guided missile standards. Some of the stuff they did hit— a park with no one in it, the underside of a tourist bridge- are not things they were aiming at. 

FesWF1TWIAAVGMt?format=jpg&name=small

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89538

Posted
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4 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

If there are enough of them, and the northern front is lightly defended, quantity CAN have a quality all its own.  And if they have commisar-types pointing rifles at their backs, they'll go forward.  As for supplies, we're talking mostly light infantry in old tanks. They'll just go forward on foot and in stolen cars.

I'm not saying it's a winner for Russia, I'm just concerned that it could be a vulnerability.  The UKA can't be massed everywhere at once, that's the advantage that having a larger pool of men CAN give Russia.  Whether that advantage plays out is a question, but it is still some advantage.

3 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

So they're shipping Russian conscripts into Belarus in cattle cars?  So how are those guys supposed to get to Kyiv?  Walk?

If the Russians think human-wave assaults work in 2022, they're about to be painfully disabused of that notion.

InkaTexas already covered the main points, but if the Russians had the air support needed to support another run at Kyiv, we would have already seen it used at  Kharkiv, Izyum, Lyman, and Kherson. 

And if they had the trucks (and related artillery, APCs, IFVs, and tanks) needed to move thousands of Russian troops into a fight in the north, we would have already seen those trucks working to get supplies and troops into the LPR/DPR, and Kherson areas to help those troops out from getting pushed back.

This is meant to tie down Ukrainian troops in the north and try and relieve pressure on Kherson, but Putin doesn’t understand how military operations properly work.  Ukraine has a bunch of territorial defense forces up there, that could easily slow down an offensive, and they are far better trained and equipped than the Russians they would face, and could easily slow them down enough for more artillery and air support to be brought in.

And Brisket, I’d bet that the Ukrainians easily have more troops in the north by tens of thousands, even if they are territorial defense/reserves, than the Russians could send in, and as Inka said, they’ll have prepared positions, proper mobility (trucks, APCs, IFVs, etc.), and bridges ready to blow and bottleneck them. And we know the Russians being brought in have only a few days training.  The Russians will get torn up.

Putin is a gambler.  This is just a bluff he’s hoping to use to tie down some troops, and try to cut into Ukraine’s reserves that could be used against Kherson.  His bluff falls apart once Ukraine takes Kherson, because if Ukraine gets into Crimea proper, Putin is in a world of shit.

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Parliament

Parliament 14174

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1 hour ago, Laxtonto said:

I got a feeling that the next step is to make sure they can take the damn and drive into Nova Kakhovka to cut off the water supply for Crimea and force Russia to decide if they want to transport water, food, ammo, or fuel during the winter.

Combine that with little to no real pipelines into the Crimea for both Oil or Gas, the Kerch bridge damage, and an oncoming winter and things could get really uncomfortable. If Russia does not transport in water, we are looking at a humanitarian crisis and a degradation in combat effectiveness.

Would the Russians care about Crimeans dying in a humanitarian crisis?

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Laxtonto

Laxtonto 12075

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1 minute ago, Parliament said:

Would the Russians care about Crimeans dying in a humanitarian crisis?

Crimea at this point is mostly just a large vacation spot and military installations and supply depots that help support the other 3 oblasts as much as anything else. In the rear with the gear is a very apt description for those still there.

So could they not care, sure, but it impacts them way more both militarily and politically than anything hardship it imparts on the Ukraine.

It’s all fun and games until the resorts for the elite and RR locations for the officers get shut down… at some point the loss of those little luxuries in life matter.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89538

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Would the Russians care about Crimeans dying in a humanitarian crisis?

3 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Considering a lot of them there are Russians, probably. Also, it would fuck up the investment values of all the property the FSB seized. 

If things get worse, and they will, any civilians remaining are going to clog up roads heading out, which will cause a lot of problems for Russian troops.

But the military requires a lot of water to keep running anyways. 

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dimyh

dimyh 1874

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3 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

They did target them.  There’s reports that a presidential admin building was targeted. That video I shared of the student ducking debris is on the same street as the SBU building, albeit a fair distance from it by guided missile standards. Some of the stuff they did hit— a park with no one in it, the underside of a tourist bridge- are not things they were aiming at. 
 

Now, don’t get me wrong, they have targeted residences, in Zaporizhia it’s been especially apparent. But the Kyiv stuff, all indications are they just suck at this. Which we’ve seen. 

Good points there.

While we are all on board with supporting Ukraine we still need to be aware they will be showing the worst angles for these attacks. There may be some semi-plausible military target in the areas. Just that their accuracy is like me pissing at 3am. It's going to be all over the place.

Apparently right next to that glass bridge attack was the HQs of the EU Advisory Mission. Which is some type of civilian security advisory board. Not sure exactly what they do but still sounds like a non-military target and a definite cheap shot but still something that Russia could try to target.

 

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