Jump to content

Русский корабль - иди нахуй

Eastwood

By Eastwood
in Daily Texan

 Share

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 86.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

  • atomheartbevo

    8604

  • MillerEP

    7287

  • Schulz2.0

    3641

  • InkaUtexas

    2981

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Popular Posts

AUS-97HORN
AUS-97HORN

For the love of Christ woman,  stop posting the same fucking thing every 20 mins just to make your neurotic self feel better.     Bring something useful to the thread other than your inane babbli

closetohumping
closetohumping
InkaUtexas
InkaUtexas

I volunteered today. Log/Admin role to replace people for 30-60 days. The operation is in the west, or should the Orcs win will be pulled back behind the NATO wall. Either way the humanitarian effort

Posted Images

MagicSoccerSpray

MagicSoccerSpray 1725

Posted
Posted
On 10/28/2022 at 6:49 AM, Gatorubet said:

Bloomberg is pay-walled.    

 

Young Ruski guys flee or die in Ukraine- and no babies being made in any event so pensioners fucked?????

I’m guessing

 

 

On 10/28/2022 at 6:59 AM, InkaUtexas said:

Was already bad, as has been discussed. Mobilization making it worse. Estimated that over 1M young men who should be making babies for the future armies and industries have fled. 

Sorry about that, I read it, should have copied it over before they hid the content. 

Spoiler

President Vladimir Putin spent years racing against Russia’s demographic clock, only to order an invasion of Ukraine that’s consigning his country’s population to a historic decline. 

Besides casualties in the thousands on the battlefield, the enlistment of 300,000 reservists to join the fight -- and an even bigger flight of men abroad -- is derailing Putin’s goals of starting to stabilize the population already this year.

Crippling disruptions from the war are converging with a population crisis rooted in the 1990s, a period of economic hardship after the Soviet breakup that sent fertility rates plunging. Independent demographer Alexei Raksha is calling it “a perfect storm.”

Russia Is Heading Toward Demographic Precipice

Number of births is plunging as mortality worsens

Source: Federal Statistics Service

Note: Estimates for 2023-2024 from Gaidar Institute's Igor Efremov

Plans by Putin’s government had set the goal of starting to reverse the decline in the population in 2022 before growth should resume in 2030. Yet weeks before the mobilization was announced in September, an internal report drafted for a closed-door meeting showed officials were already concluding those targets were unrealistic.

Citing the consequences of the coronavirus and migration outflows, the report instead proposed a revision that envisaged a decrease of 416,700 people in 2030.

 

Should military operations continue in the coming months, as expected, Russia may see less than 1.2 million births next year, the lowest in modern history, according to Igor Efremov, a researcher and specialist in demographics at the Gaidar Institute in Moscow. Total deaths in Russia average close to 2 million annually, though the number increased during the pandemic and approached 2.5 million last year.

‘Chief Blow’

“The chief blow to the birth rate will be indirect, because most families will have their planning horizon completely destroyed as a result,” Efremov said. “And the impact will be stronger the longer the mobilization lasts.”

A demographic reckoning has arrived for Russia, its economy starved of young employees and now at risk of stagnation or worse long after the war is over. Bloomberg Economics now estimates Russia’s potential growth rate at 0.5%, down two percentage points from before the war -- with demographics accounting for about a quarter of the downgrade.

Unfavorable demographics in the areas of Ukraine that Putin plans to annex is only likely to add to the challenges Russia faces from a growing population burden, Renaissance Capital economists said in a report this month.

 

While demographic traumas usually play out over decades, the fallout of the invasion is making the worst scenarios more likely -- and much sooner than expected.

What Bloomberg Economics Says...

“Russia’s population has been declining and the war will reduce it further. Reasons? Emigration, lower fertility and war-related casualties. This will both erode potential growth and stretch fiscal policy, as the government tries to reverse labor-force decline with pro-natalist policies.”

--Alexander Isakov, Russia economist. 

 

The mobilization is upending families at perhaps the most fraught moment ever for Russian demographics, with the number of women of childbearing age down by about a third in the past decade. It’s also coinciding with one of the highest death rates in the world as well as a depleted and graying labor market, alongside immigration outflows and questions about Russia’s ability to attract workers from abroad.

 

For Putin, who just turned 70, Russian demography has long been an existential issue, and just last year he declared that “saving the people of Russia is our top national priority.” He’s presided over efforts to buy time with costly policies that contributed to a steep gain in longevity and ranged from lump payments for new mothers to mortgage relief for families. 

But as Russia approached the invasion of Ukraine in February, it was coming off its deadliest year since World War II -- made worse by the pandemic -- with the population in decline since 2018. It reached 145.1 million on Aug. 1, a fall of 475,500 since the start of the year and down from 148.3 million in 1991, when the Soviet Union collapsed.

The continuation of the military campaign and mobilization until the end of next spring would be “catastrophic,” according to Efremov, likely bringing births down to just 1 million in the 12 months to mid-2024. The fertility rate may reach 1.2 children per woman, he said, a level Russia saw only once in 1999-2000. 

A fertility rate of 2.1 is needed to keep populations stable without migration.

Russian Fertility Rate Is Set to Plunge During War

Births per woman in Russia already rank among world’s lowest

Source: The World Bank

Note: Estimate for 2023 is from Gaidar Institute's Igor Efremov

“It is likely that in conditions of uncertainty, many couples will postpone having children for some time until the situation stabilizes,” said Elena Churilova, research fellow in the Higher School Economics’s International Laboratory for Population and Health. “In 2023, we are likely to see a further decline in the birth rate.”

 

  • Hook 'Em 5
  • Fuck Around and Find Out 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Mantis Toboggan, MD

Mantis Toboggan, MD 1499

Posted
Posted
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Fico

Fico 1743

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

The Kremlin claims the Brits did Sevastopol, and they did Nord Stream as well for good measure. It warms  the cockles of my heart that whenever Russia gets big mad they lash out at perfidious Albion. They hate them more than us, I think they can accept a fellow continent spanning empire getting one over on them but they’re furious that this little sodden island can out-fight and out-sail and out-empire them and have been for centuries. 

Easy there Graf Spee.

1 hour ago, MillerEP said:

^I mean not super secret, I think it's a tourist attraction

Its definitely a tourist attraction, I've had in marked on my Google map to visit for awhile along with the valley of death. Stop pushing back my trip Putin. 

46 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

^This is 100% real, and it's also 100% funny.

I almost feel bad for them, mosquitoes are biological terrorists and fuck them.... But I'm routing for the mosquitos in this case. 

  • Hook 'Em 3
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
MissingInAction

MissingInAction 24864

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Fico said:

Easy there Graf Spee.

Its definitely a tourist attraction, I've had in marked on my Google map to visit for awhile along with the valley of death. Stop pushing back my trip Putin. 

I almost feel bad for them, mosquitoes are biological terrorists and fuck them.... But I'm routing for the mosquitos in this case. 

If it's those zebra striped cock suckers from Texas they don't stand a chance. Little bastards are immune to everything except crushing them.

  • Hook 'Em 1
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
dimyh

dimyh 1874

Posted
Posted

Awesome news about the attacks on the ships in Sevastopol. I love that this nation without any functioning navy has been able to fuck up so much of the Russian fleet. Does Ukraine have any capability to sink subs? If they can advance into Crimea starting next spring, kick them fully out of Sevastopol, and force them into Novorossiyka, could they eventually target the 6 subs still active in the Black Sea? If Ukraine can secure Kerch then they should be in HIMARS range with Novorossiyka. Does Russia have any other military capable ports in the Black Sea? Would love to degrade as much Russian naval capability as possible.

The project 636 subs I believe were priced at 350M each. The project 11356R frigate that was just hit was priced between 450-500M. All of this was priced pre-sanctions. Reconstituting any naval forces is going to be a magnitude more difficult under their current conditions. So anytime I hear one of these ships get scuttled I feel like it's a 90 yard pick-six return for a TD.

  • Hook 'Em 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites
ShaggyBevo RIP

ShaggyBevo RIP 3868

Posted
Posted
Awesome news about the attacks on the ships in Sevastopol. I love that this nation without any functioning navy has been able to fuck up so much of the Russian fleet. Does Ukraine have any capability to sink subs? If they can advance into Crimea starting next spring, kick them fully out of Sevastopol, and force them into Novorossiyka, could they eventually target the 6 subs still active in the Black Sea? If Ukraine can secure Kerch then they should be in HIMARS range with Novorossiyka. Does Russia have any other military capable ports in the Black Sea? Would love to degrade as much Russian naval capability as possible.
The project 636 subs I believe were priced at 350M each. The project 11356R frigate that was just hit was priced between 450-500M. All of this was priced pre-sanctions. Reconstituting any naval forces is going to be a magnitude more difficult under their current conditions. So anytime I hear one of these ships get scuttled I feel like it's a 90 yard pick-six return for a TD.

The satellite shots from the day before the attack show subs docked in Sevastopol.

RU knows UKR has hit Sevastopol before. Going into Sevastopol suggests RU is running out of naval munitions elsewhere and the ones stockpiled in Sevastopol can’t be shipped over the Kerch bridge to safer harbors to take that risk.
  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
dimyh

dimyh 1874

Posted
Posted
54 minutes ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:


The satellite shots from the day before the attack show subs docked in Sevastopol.

RU knows UKR has hit Sevastopol before. Going into Sevastopol suggests RU is running out of naval munitions elsewhere and the ones stockpiled in Sevastopol can’t be shipped over the Kerch bridge to safer harbors to take that risk.

So the subs can't operate out of the Novorossiyka port? I thought they had relocated most of their fleet over there once Sevastopol got in range.

I'm trying to figure out what port options they have left on the Black Sea. Hoping to push them in a corner where we can see some real damage. Hopefully some swabbies can chime in here and explain what tactics might work from the Ukrainian position.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Superhero

Superhero 8784

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

RU kia has been 300-500 a day lately.

 

5 hours ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:


Gonna be tough to rebound the Russian population #s for at least the next 20-50 years. That’s assuming the current 10-15 year olds don’t get called to action here soon.

A few months ago. Zelenskyy said Ukraine had 100-200 KIA per day. Hopefully the rate is lower now, but let’s not forget that everyday this war goes on, more and more Ukrainians are dying as well. 

  • Hook 'Em 1
  • Rage+1 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
ShaggyBevo RIP

ShaggyBevo RIP 3868

Posted
Posted
Novorossiysk looks like the only other port they have in the area. Sochi looks like a tiny port that can't handle bigger ships.

As a former nuke guy, does the lack of any indication of RU ships booking it out of Sevastopol mean they can’t?
Apparently, today’s particular combined asset attack was the first of it’s kind against naval ships at harbor.
Link to comment
Share on other sites
ShaggyBevo RIP

ShaggyBevo RIP 3868

Posted
Posted
A few months ago. Zelenskyy said Ukraine had 100-200 KIA per day. Hopefully the rate is lower now, but let’s not forget that everyday this war goes on, more and more Ukrainians are dying as well. 

What he actually said was some days we have 100-200 KIA per day. No numbers to that degree have been reported since they got triple 7s and HIMARS.
  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
blacklab

blacklab 11852

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:


As a former nuke guy, does the lack of any indication of RU ships booking it out of Sevastopol mean they can’t?
Apparently, today’s particular combined asset attack was the first of it’s kind against naval ships at harbor.

That would be my guess, although they have been complete idiots about so many things, they may be leaving them there thinking they'll go out and launch some missles. 

  • Hook 'Em 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89477

Posted
Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

As a former nuke guy, does the lack of any indication of RU ships booking it out of Sevastopol mean they can’t?
Apparently, today’s particular combined asset attack was the first of it’s kind against naval ships at harbor.

Any ship getting out into the open sea now has to be worried about those sea drones that Ukraine is running.  H I Sutton was talking about how maneuverable and fast they are on I think his website or another he writes for.  Low profile as well, so hard to pick up.

makes me wonder if they could clog up or bottleneck the harbor with some sunk ships as well.

Edited by atomheartbevo
  • Hook 'Em 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89477

Posted
Posted (edited)
20 minutes ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

What he actually said was some days we have 100-200 KIA per day. No numbers to that degree have been reported since they got triple 7s and HIMARS.

And over the past few months, Russian artillery has been dropping off due to logistics (movement) issues and lack of ammo (including ammo captured by Ukrainians).  Meanwhile, the Ukrainians have a decent umbrella of sorts with the M777s and HIMARS.

edit: even if artillery ammo is prioritized, it’s got to be tough getting large numbers over pontoon bridges and barges.  

Edited by atomheartbevo
  • Hook 'Em 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
 Share
Go to topic listing


Football ... Basketball ... Baseball ... Other Sports ... Futbol ... 🤫995🤫 ... Gambling ... Movies & TV ... Music ... Hobbies ... Lulz ... Food & Travel ... Daily Texan ... Business and Markets ... Cloak Room ... Help ... For Sale ... Board Discussion ... Subscribe!... Donate!... Advertise... COOKIE MONSTER!

×
×
  • Create New...