Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[Armybrat 40834]

12 hours ago, Eskimohorn said:

If they use nukes, I’ll cut my caviar purchases altogether and 1/2 of my vodka.

Switch to Tito’s

[atomheartbevo 89656]

They are really fucking over the mobilized, making them pay out-of-pocket for stupid shit, not equipping them, etc. and there are about to be another 120,000 conscripts tossed into the mix, all the while they don’t have the winter clothing that they need.

I’ve  seen talk that they are keeping equipment, pay, etc. from the mobilized but will be providing them for the conscripts, which seems like it would just piss off the mobilized even more.

I’ve also seen talk that Russia thinks Ukraine won’t fight for the winter, as if it‘s Valley Forge in 1777.  It’s 2022, Ukraine is taking in a lot of winter gear from allies, and with proper maintenance and the right weapons and winter clothing, it won’t be that difficult to continue the fight.   And Russians will be creating a lot of fires to keep warm to make up for shitty clothing, making them stand out infrared-wise.

[atomheartbevo 89656]

Wasn’t it @Armybrats dad that fought in the Aleutians, which were pretty damned cold?  It’s like the Russians have completely forgotten the very thing that helped them against the Germans and French,

[Bevo 13576]

2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Wasn’t it @Armybrats dad that fought in the Aleutians, which were pretty damned cold?  It’s like the Russians have completely forgotten the very thing that helped them against the Germans and French,

It ain't gonna help them against Ukraine or Finland.

[atomheartbevo 89656]

 

[AUS-97HORN 11758]

3 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Wasn’t it @Armybrats dad that fought in the Aleutians, which were pretty damned cold?  It’s like the Russians have completely forgotten the very thing that helped them against the Germans and French,

well DUH, the winter only stopped the ATTACKING forces then man.....  Its not like Russia is actually attacking anything right now.  they are like, totally safe

[CHIEF 5081]

So the Russian options are freeze to death in a subzero foxhole or get drone attacked by sitting 2-3 deep around a cozy campfire?

I don’t think we have seen the highest daily death rates for Russians yet. They could loose 200k this winter without a single Ukrainian getting within rifle range. 
 

CHIEF

[atomheartbevo 89656]

2 minutes ago, AUS-97HORN said:

well DUH, the winter only stopped the ATTACKING forces then man.....  Its not like Russia is actually attacking anything right now.  they are like, totally safe

Speaking of not totally safe…

 

[Post Oak 20212]

17 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

[atomheartbevo 89656]

 

[Parliament 14257]

20 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Wasn’t it @Armybrats dad that fought in the Aleutians, which were pretty damned cold?  It’s like the Russians have completely forgotten the very thing that helped them against the Germans and French,

AB's dad fought in the Battle of Thermopolis.

[Armybrat 40834]

18 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Wasn’t it @Armybrats dad that fought in the Aleutians, which were pretty damned cold?  It’s like the Russians have completely forgotten the very thing that helped them against the Germans and French,

Yes, he spent 7 months in a tent during the 1943 Aleutian Campaign. He said a quite a few troops suffered from frostbite in spite of their issued equipment. The Japanese were pretty well equipped too, but an excess of lead poisoning took its toll.

 

 

[atomheartbevo 89656]

Lots of caution around this

[SydneyCarton 48082]

 

I mean...does these mean they're actually stupid enough to blow that dam and deprive Crimea of a huge chunk of its water?

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

They’re definitely planning something evil.  It seems like US intel has been spot on re: Russia’s next moves. I wonder what the next move is for UKR…just waltz into the city?

[atomheartbevo 89656]

 

[Macanudo 12976]

9 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

 

I mean...does these mean they're actually stupid enough to blow that dam and deprive Crimea of a huge chunk of its water?

Duh.  Because they can blow it and then blame the Ukranians.  Which means, checking my notes, only the Russian population who watches their media will know their leadership is full of shit.

[Bevo 13576]

3 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

Any of y'all know the history of Bulgaria and Ukraine? I had a great grandfather who immigrated from Bulgaria to the Ukraine but I don't know if the countries were friendly with each other.

[Superhero 8829]

1 hour ago, Schulz2.0 said:

 

 

When did Spirit Airlines expand into Russia?

[Nivek 16923]

15 minutes ago, Bevo said:

Any of y'all know the history of Bulgaria and Ukraine? I had a great grandfather who immigrated from Bulgaria to the Ukraine but I don't know if the countries were friendly with each other.

What do you think of your Bulgarian Dork Bud now?

[956 Worldwide 34706]

Everyone should follow Michael Kofman. I’ve touted him before. He doesn’t tweet often but when he does, it’s what you need to know.

 

[atomheartbevo 89656]

[956 Worldwide 34706]

30 minutes ago, Bevo said:

Any of y'all know the history of Bulgaria and Ukraine? I had a great grandfather who immigrated from Bulgaria to the Ukraine but I don't know if the countries were friendly with each other.

There’s not a lot of true bilateral history because of course the relationship was between the Kingdom of Bulgaria and the Russian Empire or between the People’s Republic of Bulgaria and the USSR. Post-Communism, the Bulgarians managed to get into the EU and NATO but are natural vector of Russian influence because of their population’s sympathies and corrupt, authoritarianish politicians that struggle with Westernizers.  
 

Bulgarians naturally have a lot of Russophobia because the Russian Empire intervened to create an independent Bulgaria as the Ottomans fell apart.  The Empire saw their fellow Orthodox Slavs as a natural ally and, the Bulgarians actually got something out of it. In World War II and post, the inconvenient existence of fascist Bulgaria was whitewashed because while it was a member of the Axis— it did not declare war on the USSR and kept diplomatic relations.  They were still occupied after the liberation of Yugoslavia and then declared war on Germany. For a single day— Bulgaria was in a formally declared war with the U.S. UK, USSR, and Germany (the Soviets declared war on them before the occupation and formal switching of sides). 

[SydneyCarton 48082]

5 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

You'd think a country that thrives on producing propaganda like they're breathing would realize how easy it would be for Ukrainian soldiers to dredge up a Russian flag from somewhere and...film the videos anyway. 

These guys, man, they're really smart.  

[Pato del Muerto 52490]

14 hours ago, Eskimohorn said:

If they use nukes, I’ll cut my caviar purchases altogether and 1/2 of my vodka.

If not Tito’s as noted above, go Polish.  Belvedere is a solid choice. 

[InkaUtexas 25915]

8 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

If not Tito’s as noted above, go Polish.  Belvedere is a solid choice. 

Hell, go South African (it sucks) before Russian. 

Here is my Fella. 

Fuck Putin

[Bevo 13576]

7 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

There’s not a lot of true bilateral history because of course the relationship was between the Kingdom of Bulgaria and the Russian Empire or between the People’s Republic of Bulgaria and the USSR. Post-Communism, the Bulgarians managed to get into the EU and NATO but are natural vector of Russian influence because of their population’s sympathies and corrupt, authoritarianish politicians that struggle with Westernizers.  
 

Bulgarians naturally have a lot of Russophobia because the Russian Empire intervened to create an independent Bulgaria as the Ottomans fell apart.  The Empire saw their fellow Orthodox Slavs as a natural ally and, the Bulgarians actually got something out of it. In World War II and post, the inconvenient existence of fascist Bulgaria was whitewashed because while it was a member of the Axis— it did not declare war on the USSR and kept diplomatic relations.  They were still occupied after the liberation of Yugoslavia and then declared war on Germany. For a single day— Bulgaria was in a formally declared war with the U.S. UK, USSR, and Germany (the Soviets declared war on them before the occupation and formal switching of sides). 

Thanks. It's short, but I'll have to read it a few times to get a good understanding. Because my relatives were Jewish, their history didn't necessarily follow the same course as Bulgaria and Ukraine history. They lived in small villages where they were scholars and leaders because they could read and write in multiple languages. And of course, they had to live through pograms and were somewhat forced nomads like many Jews. After your post I saw something on pograms in Ukraine and Bulgaria in the early 1900s: Maybe that will help me understand some too. https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/the-1919-pogroms-ukraine-and-poland-one-hundred-years-later

 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

18 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

honestly, good for them.  i've often thought that about UT football.  if my computer would just tell me we won, i'd never be the wiser.  why not done?

[Pods 7552]

1 hour ago, Armybrat said:

Yes, he spent 7 months in a tent during the 1943 Aleutian Campaign. He said a quite a few troops suffered from frostbite in spite of their issued equipment. The Japanese were pretty well equipped too, but an excess of lead poisoning took its toll.

 

 

My props to your dad and his buddies.

Camping for long stretches sucks, even when it's not cold, but winter is much worse. I've done field work during the winter and you never really get warm, regardless of gear. Even a fire only warms whatever side you have facing it. The other side is still cold, especially if it's windy.

The toll on your body adds up quickly. Without proper googles/glasses, eyelashes freeze shut in the wind. Fingers and toes get cold and numb and stay that way, making them clumsy and stiff. Every ache and pain becomes magnified due to the cold. There are a lot of middle aged+ Russian troops in horrid physical condition. They are going to be feeling every one of those aches turned to 11. 

Every part of it is miserable, even with good gear, which none of the RU troops have. When General Winter starts fucking with their minds and bodies, Russians will be surrendering en masse just to get warm again.  

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

How hard is it to actually hold a front for Russia here?  Is intel good enough that they can position people in real time where the threats are to bust through the line -- effectively leaving the unthreatened parts empty?  Or do they have to man the whole thing all the time?

[InkaUtexas 25915]

Just now, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

How hard is it to actually hold a front for Russia here?  Is intel good enough that they can position people in real time where the threats are to bust through the line -- effectively leaving the unthreatened parts empty?  Or do they have to man the whole thing all the time?

Infantry controls zones. Done right they are backed with mobile groups who fill gaps. I would not trust a Russian unit to fill South Austin's mom right now. HIMARs is waiting like a good case of bobcat bumps. 

So you hit a sector, watch the reaction, hit that force, and then decide where to break through. The weather is important for this. It is hard to move fast now in Ukraine with the rain. And as noted above, the cold is coming. Troops don't move fast in the cold. It breaks your body down fast. 

 

[956 Worldwide 34706]

17 minutes ago, Bevo said:

Thanks. It's short, but I'll have to read it a few times to get a good understanding. Because my relatives were Jewish, their history didn't necessarily follow the same course as Bulgaria and Ukraine history. They lived in small villages where they were scholars and leaders because they could read and write in multiple languages. And of course, they had to live through pograms and were somewhat forced nomads like many Jews. After your post I saw something on pograms in Ukraine and Bulgaria in the early 1900s: Maybe that will help me understand some too. https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/the-1919-pogroms-ukraine-and-poland-one-hundred-years-later

 

Your relatives would have gone to Ukraine then because at the time Ukraine was the largest part of the Tsarist Empire’s Pale of Settlement— the only place Jews could legally settle. Early post-Ottoman Balkans was a tough place, and harder for Jews and so even the Pale would have been more attractive, especially as it was hard and expensive to to the United States and also tough to get to Austria-Hungary. And more natural connections with the communities in the Pale from then Romania into the Russian Empire. 

[InkaUtexas 25915]

3 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Your relatives would have gone to Ukraine then because at the time Ukraine was the largest part of the Tsarist Empire’s Pale of Settlement— the only place Jews could legally settle. Early post-Ottoman Balkans was a tough place, and harder for Jews and so even the Pale would have been more attractive, especially as it was hard and expensive to to the United States and also tough to get to Austria-Hungary. And more natural connections with the communities in the Pale from then Romania into the Russian Empire. 

This MoFo knows his history.

However, if you were able to get to Sarajevo you were in a good place. Until some asshole extremist, and there were a lot, went after you. 

 

[Trey3216 15346]

2 hours ago, Armybrat said:

Switch to Tito’s

I've switched to Khortytsa, a Ukrainian vodka.  It's incredible, and is cheaper than Tito's.  

[Pods 7552]

21 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

And as noted above, the cold is coming. Troops don't move fast in the cold. It breaks your body down fast. 

This is where the motivation difference is going to be huge. 

Every member of the UA army wants to be there and is fighting for something much bigger than themselves. 

The Russian troops are just trying to tread water until someone offs Putin. 

 

[InkaUtexas 25915]

Please laugh. 

 

[Ghost of LL 15531]

16 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

I do not believe that Putin will do something as blatant and undeniable as using a nuclear weapon. I think it was discussed, I think it was dismissed. It is not his style.  Putin is a KGB goon and not a soldier, not a hero, not a zealot. 
 

Putin is like a KGB goon in that he highly prefers plausible deniability and he always looks to leave a back door open for himself (the famous off ramp) and he has to be kicking himself for not doing so as far as this invasion goes. There is a pattern to his most outrageous behavior:

- Crimea: (“little green men” and conflicting narratives leave a path out and deniability)

- Donbas: Fiction of local independence movements that can be abandoned without harming Russian prestige if needed.

- MH-17, Salisbury, Navalny: Use of local proxies, use of wet work, all deniable, all shadowy

- Syria chemical weapons: Farm out the use of WMD to proxies

- Wagner/PMCs in Syria and Africa can also be denied or abandoned

Georgia and Ukraine are the outliers in their clear use of Russian military force.

I don’t think we’re out of the woods.  I do think that Putin has laid the narrative work for two catastrophic events: either detonation of a low-yield “dirty bomb” type device or an artificial catastrophe in Zaporizhia.  He will blame either on the Ukrainians and has already accused them of plotting to build a dirty bomb and of shelling their own power plant.  Doing this offers a number of benefits: he can stoke outrage at home, he can offer actors like China/India JUST enough daylight to not upset the cart while waiting for “the investigation,” and he can provoke terror in Ukraine and the West of what might happen next and use his disinformation amplifiers. And he can create a catastrophe for Ukraine that distracts from the war. Killing Russians or Belarusians would not be a drawback, to the contrary, it’s even a side benefit. 
 

Another note on Putin as a counter-intelligence goon.  His professional view is shaped by an understanding of conflict as more or less permanent, an unending series of tactical struggles of wits and brutality to keep your opponent on the wrong foot, or to steal something, or to fool them, or frighten them or manipulate them into doing something ill-advised for them or good for you. But the conflict will be always be there and no spook thinks in terms of defeating his opponent completely to bring a conflict to a decisive, victorious end.  Putin’s decision making and strategies reflect this inability to even conceive of a how this war or any war will successfully end.  His original plan appeared to have a vague conception, but it was very much an intelligence officer’s idea- a lightning strike that would scare Ukraine’s leadership followed by an installation of someone friendly. He did not even consider having to fight a real war against Ukraine and none of his subsequent decisions appear to be aimed at defeating the armed forces of Ukraine on the battlefield but rather at trying to use fear, terror, and dirty tricks to cause Ukraine to collapse. 

Even Georgia was invaded under the pretense of aiding local pro-Russian separatists movements.

And I guess that's the big thing I've not understood since February--why the massive departure from Russia's MO in this case?  I don't really understand why (1) Russia undertook a direct invasion without even an attempted justification, and (2) why they decided to invade Ukraine when they did.

[elfenix 34236]

2 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

Hell, go South African (it sucks) before Russian. 

iirc there's only one russian vodka that was widely available in the US, russian standard. 

[956 Worldwide 34706]

This is an important tweet from the Russian MFA in that it reveals the Russian world-view even as they try to appear reasonable and responsible. 
 

Its a clear division of the world into “the five” and the rest in which the five have more legitimate vital concerns than non-nuclear powers.  And it makes sense as Russia is a prestigious and powerful nation only because of its arsenal.  
 

The problem is the clear message non-five nations should draw is that they must get nuclear weapons if they want any hope of having their vital interests protected. 

 

[956 Worldwide 34706]

1 hour ago, Ghost of LL said:

Even Georgia was invaded under the pretense of aiding local pro-Russian separatists movements.

And I guess that's the big thing I've not understood since February--why the massive departure from Russia's MO in this case?  I don't really understand why (1) Russia undertook a direct invasion without even an attempted justification, and (2) why they decided to invade Ukraine when they did.

Well, that was the pretext with Ukraine, too, with the added “denazify” aim. People forget that while Russia overwhelmed Georgia in 2008, their military did not perform as well as expected or how Putin wanted.  
 

I believe that Georgia was a trial run for Ukraine, I think that Russia has been laying the groundwork for this ever since. And I think that the Georgia experience is partly why he went with his whole “decapitation”’plan instead of dedicating the resources he needed.  And, I think that Biden’s election played a huge role, in that he needed to strike before transatlantic ties got repaired and while European Allies were still wary of trusting us. 

[Homesickhorn 2202]

What do you think of your Bulgarian Dork Bud now?

Weeze the juice!

[cactusflinthead 27598]

https://www.politico.eu/article/cockpit-caper-us-jet-draws-sky-penis-russia-base/

[NotActuallyALonghorn 4976]

These guys?

https://www.navytimes.com/news/your-navy/2019/05/14/the-navys-probe-into-sky-penis/

[DDD Dad 14336]

3 hours ago, Bevo said:

Thanks. It's short, but I'll have to read it a few times to get a good understanding. Because my relatives were Jewish, their history didn't necessarily follow the same course as Bulgaria and Ukraine history. They lived in small villages where they were scholars and leaders because they could read and write in multiple languages. And of course, they had to live through pograms and were somewhat forced nomads like many Jews. After your post I saw something on pograms in Ukraine and Bulgaria in the early 1900s: Maybe that will help me understand some too. https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/the-1919-pogroms-ukraine-and-poland-one-hundred-years-later

 

 

2 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Your relatives would have gone to Ukraine then because at the time Ukraine was the largest part of the Tsarist Empire’s Pale of Settlement— the only place Jews could legally settle. Early post-Ottoman Balkans was a tough place, and harder for Jews and so even the Pale would have been more attractive, especially as it was hard and expensive to to the United States and also tough to get to Austria-Hungary. And more natural connections with the communities in the Pale from then Romania into the Russian Empire. 

My grandparents on my father's side (he was Jewish, mom is Episcopalian -- long story) were from Volhynia, which is basically just north of Lviv.  They escaped right around the time of the 1919 pogroms.

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