Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[MillerEP 30575]

 

[NorthLoop 14304]

8 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Pretty intense video of the Ukrainian Kraken special forces unit storming Novoselivskyy. 

 

[MillerEP 30575]

 

[MillerEP 30575]

 

[MillerEP 30575]

 

[RockyMountainHighHorn 896]

So that means they are training on US soil right? I’m sure that wouldn’t be surprising to some but hadn’t read that we were doing that-just assumed we would train on some European base. 

[MillerEP 30575]

 

[atomheartbevo 90077]

So Russia is pulling money from state-owned companies (and possibly private companies) because they are short of cash for the war.  That's pretty wild, all the tankies seemed to think Russia was doing just fine economically.

And damn, the West seems to be ramping up its support like crazy.  Makes me wonder what intel they have seen, or Ukraine has shared with them, for this sudden increase.

I'm guessing Putin will have something big planned to mark the 1 year-anniversary of his 3-day special military operation.

[GreenspointTexas 9878]

1 hour ago, NorthLoop said:

“No doubt about it”

[utee94 15888]

24 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

So Russia is pulling money from state-owned companies (and possibly private companies) because they are short of cash for the war.  That's pretty wild, all the tankies seemed to think Russia was doing just fine economically.

And damn, the West seems to be ramping up its support like crazy.  Makes me wonder what intel they have seen, or Ukraine has shared with them, for this sudden increase.

I'm guessing Putin will have something big planned to mark the 1 year-anniversary of his 3-day special military operation.

Definitely.  He remains a master strategist.

[MillerEP 30575]

 

[MillerEP 30575]

 

[KYHorn 17283]

 

 

 

[Gengs1 2583]

1 minute ago, KYHorn said:

 

 

 

Ukrainians gonna be on the hunt soon 

[InkaUtexas 26382]

With Leopards it seems. Poland replacing them with M-1's seems smart and cool. 

 

[Gatorubet 30418]

2 hours ago, MillerEP said:

 

This move is going to seriously impair the oligarchs’ ability to steal shit tons of money. So let’s hope they can cobble together $1 billion and pay off one of Putin’s armed guards to ensure that his family is rich for the rest of their lives after the shooting.  

[MillerEP 30575]

⚡️ A lonely devil in the service of the priests

🐵 How worthless and lonely it is, scared... to the bunker grandfather, it seems like the end is already here

PS: even the Russians themselves are shocked by him

[MillerEP 30575]

 

[Gatorubet 30418]

2 hours ago, MillerEP said:

 

You know there has to be heavy losses on both sides. I hope the Russian side has a multiplier.

[Jameslaw121 4455]

2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

So Russia is pulling money from state-owned companies (and possibly private companies) because they are short of cash for the war.  That's pretty wild, all the tankies seemed to think Russia was doing just fine economically.

And damn, the West seems to be ramping up its support like crazy.  Makes me wonder what intel they have seen, or Ukraine has shared with them, for this sudden increase.

I'm guessing Putin will have something big planned to mark the 1 year-anniversary of his 3-day special military operation.

Trying to not go CR, but the timing may also have to do with the new Leadership and committee chairmanships in the House of Representatives.

[TexasEd 8147]

36 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

With Leopards it seems. Poland replacing them with M-1's seems smart and cool. 

 

I think I read this same thing back on June.

[Gatorubet 30418]

6 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

 

Get those spray guns working and ditch that desert camo. Great to see them in Ukraine. 

[InkaUtexas 26382]

1 minute ago, TexasEd said:

I think I read this same thing back on June.

Yep, but was conditional on buying equipment from Korea and US M-1's. Seems like those deals went through. 

 

[atomheartbevo 90077]

24 minutes ago, Jameslaw121 said:

Trying to not go CR, but the timing may also have to do with the new Leadership and committee chairmanships in the House of Representatives.

Maybe, but it's a bunch of countries cranking things up all at the same time, and feels like it comes on the heels of a lot of Ukrainian success, and a lot of signs that Russia is hurting badly (and Russian military leadership is taking potshots at one another), and just as Russia is cranking up for another mass mobilization (that they can't supply/equip).  And the anniversary is coming up next month.

And Biden has a lot of latitude with older equipment, and enough Republicans in Congress are against Ukraine that it's not a problem.

 

[atomheartbevo 90077]

This list feels like we are clearing out our older stuff (which is still better than what the Russians have), and with the exception of the MRAPs and M777s (and those towed howitzers may not even be M777s), all of this was designed decades ago to fight Russians in Europe.

• 50 IFVs Bradley
• 100 M113 armored personnel carriers
• 55 MRAP armored vehicles
• 138 HMMWVS SUVs
• 18 self-propelled
• 36 towed howitzers

We need to really crank up the Bradley/TOW shipments.  We have replacements starting to come online this year, have thousands sitting in long-term storage.  And if we are shipping M109 Paladins, they share a chassis, so that helps with supplies/maintenance.

Edited January 6, 2023 by atomheartbevo

[The Dog 44193]

more comprehensive list:

[Pescado_Rojo 19454]

Claymores...nice. 

[The Dog 44193]

why we aren't giving them Abrams yet:

 

why Germany is now giving the good stuff:

 

[Parliament 14383]

So we're gonna buy kickass new tech to replace the old stuff we're sending over.  What are we gonna get?  Sharks with lasers on their heads?

[Gatorubet 30418]

6 minutes ago, Parliament said:

So we're gonna buy kickass new tech to replace the old stuff we're sending over.  What are we gonna get?  Sharks with lasers on their heads?

No, the newer invisible flying sharks with lasers.  It was the talk of the Sharks with Lasers Biathlon.

 

[Parliament 14383]

Are these skarks able to fly at supersonic speeds?

[AUS-97HORN 11883]

1 minute ago, Parliament said:

Are these skarks able to fly at supersonic speeds?

no but the friggin lasers travel at the speed of light

[Ghost of LL 15605]

I have become convinced that there is little we could do in Ukraine that would cause Russia to go to war with us.  Obviously, we can't attack Russia inside Russia's borders.  Nor do I think we can get away with supplying Ukraine with weapons that would hit meaningfully inside Russia.  But otherwise, I think Russia has shown with their refusal to enforce any of their purported red lines that we can do whatever we want in Ukraine.

So yeah--I do think that means we could give Ukraine F-16s.  I think we could give Ukraine M-1A2s.  Hell--I think we could have American troops operating those M-1A2s and flying those F-16s.  I don't think that would prompt Russia to do shit.  And that's in part because Russia knows it can't do shit.

And I think we're finally figuring all that out.

Russia is going to have a tough time in 2023.

[SL Xpress 7518]

I'm seeing reports of Soledar falling, which is going to put intense pressure on the northern side of Bakhmut. Arguably impossibly difficult pressure. 

Anyone have any thoughts on the chances of Ukraine holding on to Bakhmut over the next week or so? The problem isn't Bakhmut itself. The problem is maintaining the current defensive line of which Bakhmut is a key part of. 

[MillerEP 30575]

 

[atomheartbevo 90077]

19 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

I'm seeing reports of Soledar falling, which is going to put intense pressure on the northern side of Bakhmut. Arguably impossibly difficult pressure. 

Anyone have any thoughts on the chances of Ukraine holding on to Bakhmut over the next week or so? The problem isn't Bakhmut itself. The problem is maintaining the current defensive line of which Bakhmut is a key part of. 

Ukraine won’t sacrifice troops there like the Russians will, so they may pull back. Anything the Russians put into Bakhmut proper will be within Ukrainian artillery range, so I still don’t know what the purpose of killing all those Russians was, unless Wagner really wants those mines.

Russia has a weird fucking obsession with Bakhmut.

[Gatorubet 30418]

I'm seeing reports of Soledar falling, which is going to put intense pressure on the northern side of Bakhmut. Arguably impossibly difficult pressure. 
Anyone have any thoughts on the chances of Ukraine holding on to Bakhmut over the next week or so? The problem isn't Bakhmut itself. The problem is maintaining the current defensive line of which Bakhmut is a key part of. 

Asgard isn’t a place it’s a People.
What I meant was - Bakhmut isn’t really an important place, other than a geographic area where you kill a shit ton of Orcs.   As long as Russia and the meat grinder are giving up tens of thousands of troops, and as long as multipliers of that number are wounded and disabled, Ukraine is doing well no matter the lines on the map.   As long as they are killing a lot of Russians, Ukraine’s borders can fluctuate a whole lot. Putin thinks it’s the Soviet union in 1939 or 40 with an endless supply of peasant bodies. He is wrong. It is now winter and tons of people at home have a dead breadwinner, a disabled breadwinner or an unemployed breadwinner.
Next year the Russian economy will tank even harder and faster than it has so far. The state companies deducting 50% of profit will result in a bunch of people being laid off. Patriotism is fine at all, but oligarchs aren’t giving up mansions and mistresses for the war effort. If someone has to suffer, it sure won’t be the oligarchs - which means it’s gonna be the employees.
I love that the price of oil is going down, the additional Chinese and Indian price discount anal rape notwithstanding.  Even if someone wanted to buy the shit-tastic Russian military equipment, Russia can’t sell any right now because it needs it all. 
I used to be worried that there was not enough time to get Ukraine prepared for a larger Russian military action. It is looking more and more like Ukraine will have more and better equipment than many European nations. Sadly, Russia will do its Russia thing and kill a ton of civilians with artillery.   Russia will destroy homes and apartments and businesses and schools and hospitals and churches and museums - and generally Attila the Hun the fuck out of Ukraine.
Ukraine has a hate for Russia as hot as a newly formed sun, and that motivation will be matched with some fantastic military equipment.  I used to wonder if Ukraine would win. Now I wonder when, and at what cost. 

[Gatorubet 30418]

Final note, I may have been overserved at happy hour.

[KYHorn 17283]

 

[SL Xpress 7518]

1 hour ago, KYHorn said:

 

Well, that answers that question.

It seems like a couple of people interpreted my question about Bakhmut as some kind of existential concern about the outcome of the war, when all I was really wondering was if Ukraine could maintain their defensive line.

There's a river to the west of Bakhmut where the Ukrainians have another defensive line set up so I'm not exactly wringing my hands regarding a new effective Russian offensive. I was just concerned that the abandonment of Bakhmut was now imminent after months of fighting, and it was. 

[atomheartbevo 90077]

43 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

It seems like a couple of people interpreted my question about Bakhmut as some kind of existential concern about the outcome of the war, when all I was really wondering was if Ukraine could maintain their defensive line.

There's a river to the west of Bakhmut where the Ukrainians have another defensive line set up so I'm not exactly wringing my hands regarding a new effective Russian offensive. I was just concerned that the abandonment of Bakhmut was now imminent after months of fighting, and it was. 

In theory, Ukrainians could feed men to the meat grinder in Bakhmut, but they don't need to, and like I said, any points on the front lines like Bakhmut are easily within Ukrainian artillery range (something that was not a given early last year).   The artillery is a game changer these days, because even if the Russians think they can use Bakhmut as some kind of stepping off point for a counter-offensive in 2023, they would have to mass troops and vehicles, which then the clock ticks down to HIMARS O'clock.

 Holding Bakhmut in January of 2023 isn't as crucial as other towns were earlier last year when the Ukrainians needed some of those places to hold out so they could regroup and rebuild defenses and keep Russian troops tied up (when artillery was not ever-present).

[SL Xpress 7518]

3 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Ukraine won’t sacrifice troops there like the Russians will, so they may pull back. Anything the Russians put into Bakhmut proper will be within Ukrainian artillery range, so I still don’t know what the purpose of killing all those Russians was, unless Wagner really wants those mines.

Russia has a weird fucking obsession with Bakhmut.

 

Is it weird? It seems obvious it has been a political play from Prigozhin in an effort to obtain even more resources and access to more men. He's the only one having any success, so he should get access to more and be granted more responsibility to have more success. I know people lately are floating the salt and gypsum mines as part of the goal, but it's going to be extremely difficult to mine those resources under the current environment in the field. To say the least. 

I just don't see a lot of evidence that Russia can sustain any kind of offensive momentum. If Ukraine is ever able to mount another effective counter offensive, then it's going to create all kinds of trouble for Russian forces, IMO. They're simply not as motivated, they're not as well equipped. Their artillery advantage is fast dissipating. They still have more air power, but not enough to have free reign over the skies. They're horrible at combined arms, with many of their most competent forces dead or wounded. They're corrupt, with too much politics influencing military strategy. There's no job security for commanders. They have no real power in the Kremlin.

Their only real advantage right now is that they have a dictatorship that still maintains strong approval from the populace, whether through fear, propaganda, or a legitimate pride in having a strong leader. Whereas democracies, for all their strengths, are inherently poor at being proactive, and can have issues with being consistent with policies that do not directly affect the voters. An isolationist Congress or President would be horrible for the prospects of this war. And that's not exactly out of reach. From either party. As a one issue agenda guy, I'm very grateful for the current composition in both political institutions. I just wish we'd send even more support. But this latest tranche is extremely welcome by me.

[SL Xpress 7518]

2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

In theory, Ukrainians could feed men to the meat grinder in Bakhmut, but they don't need to, and like I said, any points on the front lines like Bakhmut are easily within Ukrainian artillery range (something that was not a given early last year).   The artillery is a game changer these days, because even if the Russians think they can use Bakhmut as some kind of stepping off point for a counter-offensive in 2023, they would have to mass troops and vehicles, which then the clock ticks down to HIMARS O'clock.

 Holding Bakhmut in January of 2023 isn't as crucial as other towns were earlier last year when the Ukrainians needed some of those places to hold out so they could regroup and rebuild defenses and keep Russian troops tied up (when artillery was not ever-present).

 

No argument. I've never thought of Bakhmut as important strategically. But I still liked Ukraine successfully holding it as opposed to pulling back. That's it. 
 

[Superhero 8894]

9 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

With Leopards it seems. Poland replacing them with M-1's seems smart and cool. 

 

I may have missed the memo, but was sending tanks to Ukraine crossing a red line?

 

And the somewhat related question... the Poles own the tanks that they're giving to Ukraine. Why do they need German's permission?

[InkaUtexas 26382]

1 minute ago, Superhero said:

I may have missed the memo, but was sending tanks to Ukraine crossing a red line?

 

And the somewhat related question... the Poles own the tanks that they're giving to Ukraine. Why do they need German's permission?

Yes it kind of was since Ukraine is not NATO. 

Germany has massive reexport laws. Most modern nations do. 

Finland has stated they will do the same if another NATO nation goes first. So Poland sends 1, the Finns can send more. Then they can buy more advanced M-1's or newer Leopards. Plus would be interesting to see how the Leopard handles Russian armor. 

 

[atomheartbevo 90077]

1 hour ago, SL Xpress said:

Is it weird? It seems obvious it has been a political play from Prigozhin in an effort to obtain even more resources and access to more men. He's the only one having any success, so he should get access to more and be granted more responsibility to have more success. I know people lately are floating the salt and gypsum mines as part of the goal, but it's going to be extremely difficult to mine those resources under the current environment in the field. To say the least. 

It's weird to me, because it has killed off so many Russians (not just Wagner) and destroyed so many vehicles, and they just won't let it go and pick a more favorable location (and arguably they need to shore up some areas of their own). They are losing lots of experienced men and expensive equipment, when they are going to need that for any counter-offensives in a few months.

I feel like Donetsk is far more important to Russia for a lot of reasons (Bakhmut was relatively unknown until all of this went down, but Donetsk is well known to Russians following the war) including strategic but also psychological reasons.

1 hour ago, SL Xpress said:

I just don't see a lot of evidence that Russia can sustain any kind of offensive momentum.

1234.  The Russians don't have a logistics chain that can support a sustained counter-offensive, and here in 2023, and even if they formed some kind of salient with Bakhmut, that just means a bunch of Russians are sticking out into Ukrainian territory, waiting to get hammered from three sides (and from Ukrainian artillery).

1 hour ago, SL Xpress said:

If Ukraine is ever able to mount another effective counter offensive, then it's going to create all kinds of trouble for Russian forces, IMO. They're simply not as motivated, they're not as well equipped. Their artillery advantage is fast dissipating. They still have more air power, but not enough to have free reign over the skies. They're horrible at combined arms, with many of their most competent forces dead or wounded. They're corrupt, with too much politics influencing military strategy. There's no job security for commanders. They have no real power in the Kremlin.

Agree with all of this.

And I'd argue that a lot of equipment that is being sent to the Ukrainians, that has been recently announced, is precisely the kind of equipment they could use in a counter-offensives (lot of armored vehicles to move troops around quickly). 

1 hour ago, SL Xpress said:

Their only real advantage right now is that they have a dictatorship that still maintains strong approval from the populace, whether through fear, propaganda, or a legitimate pride in having a strong leader. 

I feel like that's going to get truly tested with this next mobilization that will be happening as the one year anniversary in February kicks in. Either Putin is going to have to utterly destroy parts of rural Russia by drafting the older and less-capable men who are farming, mining, etc., (not to mention those who just turned 18 or so) and who can't buy their way out of Russia, or he has to pull from the major urban areas (where a lot of young people are).

I'm insanely curious if they let people flee Russia for this round.  Made sense last time, but that shrank the remaining pool quite a bit.

[InkaUtexas 26382]

my new favorite song. 

 

[956 Worldwide 34965]

1 hour ago, Superhero said:

I may have missed the memo, but was sending tanks to Ukraine crossing a red line?

 

And the somewhat related question... the Poles own the tanks that they're giving to Ukraine. Why do they need German's permission?

It’s not tanks, it’s western tanks, NATO has been sending T-72s for months.  
 

When you buy sophisticated or heavy military equipment there are significant reexport clauses and other requirements.  It’s not quite cash on the barrel.  

[956 Worldwide 34965]

Well, the other plan would be to let Ukraine lose. This is what Russia is counting on. 

[956 Worldwide 34965]

10 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

This list feels like we are clearing out our older stuff (which is still better than what the Russians have), and with the exception of the MRAPs and M777s (and those towed howitzers may not even be M777s), all of this was designed decades ago to fight Russians in Europe.

• 50 IFVs Bradley
• 100 M113 armored personnel carriers
• 55 MRAP armored vehicles
• 138 HMMWVS SUVs
• 18 self-propelled
• 36 towed howitzers

We need to really crank up the Bradley/TOW shipments.  We have replacements starting to come online this year, have thousands sitting in long-term storage.  And if we are shipping M109 Paladins, they share a chassis, so that helps with supplies/maintenance.

We’re sending this stuff under drawdown authority, for which the admin has 14.5 billion in FY2023. So by definition this will be stuff from existing stores.