Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[956 Worldwide 34443]

Here’s a deep dive into the different heavy armored western vehicles Ukraine is getting including educated speculation on the versions. Of course the French one fires a special round that only works in the French vehicle. I guess they didn’t have any up-armored Citroen DSes they could send.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/meet-all-the-heavily-armored-western-combat-vehicles-ukraine-is-getting

[Macanudo 12926]

5 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Well, the other plan would be to let Ukraine lose. This is what Russia is counting on. 

And part of our Congress.

[Brisketexan 104613]

And part of our Congress.

Yep. Now is when it starts to get a bit hairy on our home front.

[brakeman 28243]

merry christmas.

[Serak The Preparer 3424]

16 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

I have become convinced that there is little we could do in Ukraine that would cause Russia to go to war with us.  Obviously, we can't attack Russia inside Russia's borders.  Nor do I think we can get away with supplying Ukraine with weapons that would hit meaningfully inside Russia.  But otherwise, I think Russia has shown with their refusal to enforce any of their purported red lines that we can do whatever we want in Ukraine.

So yeah--I do think that means we could give Ukraine F-16s.  I think we could give Ukraine M-1A2s.  Hell--I think we could have American troops operating those M-1A2s and flying those F-16s.  I don't think that would prompt Russia to do shit.  And that's in part because Russia knows it can't do shit.

And I think we're finally figuring all that out.

Russia is going to have a tough time in 2023.

I agree with you from a "lack of Russian response" view point but I think the bolded is real big line to cross for domestic support. I know both Republicans and Democrats who support our current involvement and are ok with sending more support but a big part of this is the "no American lives are at risk" element. I suspect those who are making the decisions on how much to send and who to crew what we send are taking into consideration this domestic support as much as perceived Russian reaction.

Edited January 7, 2023 by Serak The Preparer

[Sbbruin 21734]

2 hours ago, brakeman said:

merry christmas.

Holy shit.  A massacre.

[KYHorn 16865]

 

 

[Bateshorn 9901]

As much as we Stan for the Abrams, the Leopard 2 makes much more sense for the Ukrainians: it’s traditional diesel, and thus much easier on the fuel supply then the Abrams, which was designed to take advantage of the many pros of the turbine engine with the assumption NATO supply lines would be shortening as Cold War era armies fell back towards the Fulda Gap. 

I suspect that’s the endgame with all these arms sales to Poland: allow them to transfer their Leopards to Ukraine, once the Germans sign off. I’d be shocked if the Ukrainians aren’t already being trained up now.  And all of that can be done outside of a congressional authorization, since Poland is buying the Abrams.

Edited January 7, 2023 by Bateshorn

[Gatorubet 30104]

49 minutes ago, Sbbruin said:

Holy shit.  A massacre.

Maybe after the hiMars destruction of hundreds of Russians housed in that university, Putin felt that under any circumstance he had to have some positive message. While that may not have been a tipping point, it may have nudged the point a bit closer. Putin has not hadbanything but embarrassment for sometime. The common person’s life is getting worse, as people are poorer and less able to buy the things they want. The mobilization is endured, but not approved of.  

Maybe Putin is feeding the meat grinder because he has to capture that city to make a big announcement and he’s desperate for any kind of good news or progress.

[InkaUtexas 25518]

1 hour ago, Sbbruin said:

Holy shit.  A massacre.

Yep, or they could all just be drunk. 

[Gatorubet 30104]

3 hours ago, brakeman said:

merry christmas.

All of those poor guys - killed in training accidents in Russia

[MillerEP 30339]

 

[MillerEP 30339]

 

[MillerEP 30339]

 

[MillerEP 30339]

 

[Schulz2.0 28771]

 

[MillerEP 30339]

 

[MillerEP 30339]

 

[MillerEP 30339]

 

[MillerEP 30339]

MTR of the Armed Forces of Ukraine conducts accurate mortar fire in Bakhmut

[Gengs1 2583]

Ukraine looking at Poland, got some planes you want to replace with Americans ones?

[Bevo 13527]

I'm still curious about what will happen if an attack comes from Belarus. What would you do if you were Poland?

[InkaUtexas 25518]

5 minutes ago, Bevo said:

I'm still curious about what will happen if an attack comes from Belarus. What would you do if you were Poland?

Move the army to the border, never get caught again in partial mobilization. Keeps Belarus watching the western front. 

Provide all intelligence being gathered to the UA

Open up logistics corridors, making it very clear that is 1 is hit its on.

Cyber guard all infrastructure  

I bet they are doing quite a bit of this already, but make it public. 

 

[Handcruser 2805]

I'm still curious about what will happen if an attack comes from Belarus. What would you do if you were Poland?

I think Russia has been told that if Belarus joins in then it’s a free for all.

Russia isn’t going to do shit - all their shit sucks and Putin knows they’d get annihilated if ANYBODY else puts boots on the ground in Ukraine.

The slow integration of western weapons also makes a lot of sense to me now (post us learning Ukraine was going to fight).

[atomheartbevo 89441]

7 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Provide all intelligence being gathered to the UA

...

I bet they are doing quite a bit of this already, but make it public. 

Would love it if the US and the European members started putting all of Russia's shit on blast.  Where various officers are, where various units are, etc.,  and just make them paranoid as hell.

On the one hand, you have to be careful not to reveal how you gathered it, but on the other if you started putting out accurate information, you could slip in some misinformation such as Russian units that are close to turning on one another or their officers, officers that are turning on one another, etc.

Put out stuff like "enlisted members of the Russian Mechanized Naval Infantry Regiment 629 have been intercepted plotting against the upper-ranking officers, and we would encourage Ukraine not to interfere with that, as we believe they will be successful in killing their officers, otherwise the Chechens and musicians come in and kill the men" etc.

Ramp the paranoia up and it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy when the officers are scared of the men, and the men think the officers are worried they are going to kill them and will bring in the Chechens or whatever.

5 minutes ago, Handcruser said:

Russia isn’t going to do shit - all their shit sucks and Putin knows they’d get annihilated if ANYBODY else puts boots on the ground in Ukraine.

I wonder if Belarus even has anything to attack with, given how much they have sent to Russia.  Feels like they have enough to keep internal disturbances down and that's about it.

[InkaUtexas 25518]

agree. Time to create a Surly version on telegram. We need a Russian speaker. I am sure we can find one. some good porn, talk about their shitty sports situation and then start dropping hints.

 

[SL Xpress 7505]

I looked for it, but didn't see this posted. I love this guy's videos so much. I'm unsure of his role in Bakhmut, just that his commentary in his videos as translated by Dmitri on twitter at wartranslated are a perfect mixture of bravado, low key confidence, and authenticity. 

Here he says he made an emotional video yesterday, which he did, but reassures everyone they have all the equipment they need EXCEPT for reconnaissance drones that he specified. He's also saying the defensive lines are still holding in Bakhmut.

Also, as many of you are aware, advances by Russia in Soledad, while true, where slightly exaggerated. The UAF still holds the salt mines, which are highly defensible. My concern is how vulnerable are they to encirclement with a static defensive position, but for now it appears they still have access to supply lines. 

Anyway, thanks for everyone's updates and commentary. All of it is appreciated. 

 

[NAVY 6738]

19 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

agree. Time to create a Surly version on telegram. We need a Russian speaker. I am sure we can find one. some good porn, talk about their shitty sports situation and then start dropping hints.

 

Surly telegram channel would spend all day every day announcing another submarine has been lost 

[Parliament 14137]

1 hour ago, Bevo said:

I'm still curious about what will happen if an attack comes from Belarus. What would you do if you were Poland?

Point all your weapons at Belarus, disengage their safeties and hope they try something.

[atomheartbevo 89441]

World's "second" most powerful military, and they are known for stealing fucking toilets.

 

Edited January 8, 2023 by atomheartbevo

[atomheartbevo 89441]

They don't even try...

This is how they sell the war to morons and Russian boomers.

 

[KYHorn 16865]

I've seen similar estimates from US authorities a few times recently. It's really hard to believe there's a 1:1 ratio.

 

 

[Schulz2.0 28771]

21 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

I've seen similar estimates from US authorities a few times recently. It's really hard to believe there's a 1:1 ratio.

 

 

Part of the problem might be how they count people like the Wagner dipshits.

[KYHorn 16865]

16 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

Part of the problem might be how they count people like the Wagner dipshits.

Yeah, I considered that. Plus, the Ukrainian survival rate is almost certainly far superior to the Russian, considering the disparities in amount of training, medical equipment, and concern for the fellow soldier.

[statsman 5425]

The crappy truth is- although Russia started this and is getting its ass handed to it, they started with almost six times the population of Ukraine. Ukraine did have a population of 44m, and now (thanks primarily to Ukrainians leaving the country) has a population of 39M. 
 

Yes, Ukraine is the fox (smart, nimble) to the Russian hedgehog (dumb, relentless), but this hedgehog is a lot bigger than its fox opponent. If both sides have lost 100k KIA, Ukraine has taken a bigger hit. 
 
It’s fucked up. Neither can really defeat the other. I imagine it will end with Putin’s (hopefully, near) death, as the oligarchs end it so they can get on with business. Still, you’ll have two bordering countries that absolutely despise each other. Ukraine, yes, because of the Russian’s brutality- the rapes, tortures and executions. Conversely, the Russian propaganda is convincing Russians to take offense over the barracks artillery strikes and similar military victories. They’re being told that their soldiers are over there trying to help the greater nation and those evil Ukrainians are acting like terrorists. Emotional, not logical, but it will be difficult to unwind when peace comes eventually. It’s a really bad situation. 

Edited January 8, 2023 by statsman

[KYHorn 16865]

 

That has to be an advantage for the side with higher morale

[KYHorn 16865]

Lol "oh, we knew they were there this whole time but wouldn't bring ourselves to that level until Makiivka"

 

Edited January 8, 2023 by KYHorn

[Hook1997 5289]

11 hours ago, KYHorn said:

I've seen similar estimates from US authorities a few times recently. It's really hard to believe there's a 1:1 ratio.

 

 

We are also only getting one side reporting what they want reported and nothing from the other side. When was the last time we heard a report on Ukraine taking big losses in battles?  Not often but it’s definitely happening sometimes.  I don’t think it’s quite 1:1 ratio but it’s higher then we think.  Need something to happen to get Putin out of power before this goes another year or two because Russia can just keep throwing people in the grinder but Ukraine can’t do that forever. 

[Parliament 14137]

I see two paths to victory for Russia:

1) Kill everyone of fighting age.  

2) Kill enough people of fighting age (most of whom are of reproductive age) that a demographic collapse is created.  Make it so Ukraine can't sustain enough people to keep their country intact.  (Russia's forced emigration plays into this.)  

#2 is a long game.  Would require the war to devolve to a NK v SK scenario.  

Both of those possibilities are incredibly savage.  But this is Russia we're talking about.

[956 Worldwide 34443]

20 minutes ago, Parliament said:

I see two paths to victory for Russia:

1) Kill everyone of fighting age.  

2) Kill enough people of fighting age (most of whom are of reproductive age) that a demographic collapse is created.  Make it so Ukraine can't sustain enough people to keep their country intact.  (Russia's forced emigration plays into this.)  

#2 is a long game.  Would require the war to devolve to a NK v SK scenario.  

Both of those possibilities are incredibly savage.  But this is Russia we're talking about.

Neither of these countries were on a long-term sustainable demographic curve before the war started.
 

Ukraine can win this war on the battlefield but it’s already a catastrophe across the board for them. Even more than the battlefield losses, huge numbers of refugees will never return and once the fighting is over and the grinding reality of rebuilding happens, straight emigration will tick up. 

Russia is just accelerating its transformation into a more Asian, more Muslim, smaller country.  There will be knock-on effects for decades there, too. 
 

It’s really hard to find any two countries that needed this war LESS. 

[Brisketexan 104613]

Neither of these countries were on a long-term sustainable demographic curve before the war started.
 
Ukraine can win this war on the battlefield but it’s already a catastrophe across the board for them. Even more than the battlefield losses, huge numbers of refugees will never return and once the fighting is over and the grinding reality of rebuilding happens, straight emigration will tick up. 
Russia is just accelerating its transformation into a more Asian, more Muslim, smaller country.  There will be knock-on effects for decades there, too. 
 
It’s really hard to find any two countries that needed this war LESS. 

I’ve got some thoughts noodling around in my head about how, if this war ends in something close to the right way, Eastern Europe could be a “next economic frontier” with respect to redevelopment, cheap access to property and labor, and perhaps some thoughtful immigration to those places. But those thoughts sure haven’t gelled. I’d be curious to know/read some of the information out there on what people much smarter than I am think Eastern Europe might look like 10 years from now.

[Gatorubet 30104]

2 hours ago, statsman said:

Emotional, not logical, but it will be difficult to unwind when peace comes eventually. It’s a really bad situation. 

When peace eventually comes all of the companies whose assets were stolen by Russia will not come back. All of the clients in countries who weened themselves from Russian oil and gas aren’t coming back so they can be blackmailed again. No matter how much it is propped up, the Ruble it’s not storming back. if Putin or like-minded Putin followers are still in charge, the brain drain of all those educated western, thinking Russians, who fled the country following mobilization aren’t coming back. Russia’s economy is going to be fucked for at least a generation. On the other hand, there will be some kind of Ukrainian Marshall plan at the end of this, but the Russians are on their own.

Putting aside the hundreds of thousands of Russian men that Ukraine will kill, wound or disable, all of Russia will be pressing their nose against the window pane looking across the border at a modern, successful democratic Ukraine.  

Of course Russia will hate Ukraine. Ukraine will be eating prime brisket while Russia eats yesterday’s shit sandwich.

[Gatorubet 30104]

3 hours ago, statsman said:

They’re being told that their soldiers are over there trying to help the greater nation and those evil Ukrainians are acting like terrorists.

Even in Russia, a couple hundred thousand wounded soldiers who finally returned home will be educating everyone on what the war was really about - and how they were sent to Ukraine for no discernible reason without training or decent weapons. I’m not saying the Russian populace will come to that realization this week, but eventually it will come to understand more about what happened….just like it eventually did with Afghanistan and with Chechnya. 

I think that we in the west have a problem understanding how things work in Russia. In America, we usually don’t take action until we learn things. In Russia, they learn they were lied to and the government did terrible things.  The government knows they know, and the people know the government knows - yet the people shrug and do nothing.  

I’d wager that many of the people we see on TV spouting Russian propaganda don’t actually believe it. They just know it’s the best not to bring attention to themselves because prison is always a verbal misstep away. We just don’t think that way. Thank God.

 

[SL Xpress 7505]

Here's this guy's report from Bakhmut for the day. He has a few colorful moments, calling Russian reinforcements "airborne smackhead alco-troops who served previously" and allowing that the alcoholic assault troops have their very own cell where they can join their comrades in the snow as the defense piles up their bodies. 

According to many replies to the tweet, the guy actually says 8th of December, not January, but whether that's the case or not, the video makes no sense unless it was released today. I don't know Russian, so I wouldn't know one way or another. Also, the mortar sounds going off in the distance pretty much every time he does a video are a bit surreal. Oh, and -16 celsius is 3 degrees Fahrenheit. Pretty fucking cold however you measure it. 

 

[bolverk 29399]

50 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I’ve got some thoughts noodling around in my head about how, if this war ends in something close to the right way, Eastern Europe could be a “next economic frontier” with respect to redevelopment, cheap access to property and labor, and perhaps some thoughtful immigration to those places. But those thoughts sure haven’t gelled. I’d be curious to know/read some of the information out there on what people much smarter than I am think Eastern Europe might look like 10 years from now.

I think that was all part of the vision for the EU's expansion to encompass most of the Warsaw Pact countries of Eastern Europe. Certain, Germany saw it as an opportunity, and I'm fairly sure a lot of the German auto industry supply chain extends well into Poland, Czechia, etc. Recently, I was reading about the Itermarium project that emerged in the interwar period to fully integrate Eastern Europe to fend off Russian expansion and efforts to bring back some version of it for basically the same purpose. If Ukraine somehow wins this, or if it ends in an extended cease fire, I can totally see the idea taking off.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intermarium

[KYHorn 16865]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/moscow-ends-self-proclaimed-ceasefire-vows-press-ahead-ukraine-2023-01-08/

 

KRAMATORSK, Ukraine, Jan 8 (Reuters) - A Russian rocket strike on the Ukrainian city of Kramatorsk caused damage but did not destroy buildings and there were no obvious signs of casualties, a Reuters witness said on Sunday, after Russia said the attack killed 600 Ukrainian soldiers.

Reuters reporters visited the two college dormitories Russia's defence ministry said had been temporarily housing Ukrainian servicemen close to the front line of the war at the time of the overnight strike. Neither appeared to have been directly hit by missiles or seriously damaged. There were no obvious signs that soldiers had been living there and no sign of bodies or traces of blood.

The other building named by Russia's defence ministry, Hostel No. 28, was entirely intact. A crater lay about 50 metres away closer to some garages.

Authorities in Kyiv did not immediately comment on the strike or on Russia's claim of hundreds of casualties. Kramatorsk's mayor earlier said there had been no casualties. 

Russia's defence ministry, in a statement, said the strike on the buildings in Kramatorsk was a revenge operation for a deadly Ukrainian attack last week on a Russian barracks in Makiivka, in part of the Donetsk region controlled by Moscow's forces, in which at least 89 servicemen were killed.

It said Moscow had used what it called reliable intelligence to target the Ukrainian troops. More than 700 Ukrainian troops had been housed in one hostel and more than 600 in another, it said.

"As a result of a massive missile strike on these temporary deployment points of Ukrainian army units, more than 600 Ukrainian servicemen were destroyed," the defence ministry said.

If true, it would be the single largest loss of Ukrainian troops since Russia invaded on Feb. 24 last year. Neither side in the grinding war, now in its eleventh month, usually disclose losses.

Pavlo Kyrylenko, Ukraine's governor of Donetsk, had said earlier that Russia had launched seven missile strikes on Kramatorsk.

And Oleksandr Honcharenko, Kramatorsk's mayor, said earlier on Sunday that the attack had damaged two educational facilities and eight apartment buildings and garages but that there had been no casualties.

Ukraine was believed to have stopped housing troops close together in single facilities after a deadly Russian missile strike on a base in western Ukraine in March which killed dozens.

The practice of housing soldiers all together came into focus too after the Ukrainian strike on Makiivka this month with Russian military commanders subject to fierce criticism inside Russia for not dispersing their forces.

Russia has repeatedly shelled Kramatorsk, which is also in the Donetsk region, one of four regions Moscow claims to have formally incorporated into Russia, something Ukraine and most countries in the world do not recognise.

Kramatorsk lies a few miles northwest of Bakhmut, a small city which Russia has been trying to take for more than five months in a brutal battle which has become the scene of some of the fiercest fighting in recent weeks.

Ukrainian officials earlier said at least two people had been killed elsewhere in Russian overnight bombing after a unilateral Russian Orthodox Christmas ceasefire had expired.

A 50-year-old man had been killed in the northeastern region of Kharkiv, Oleh Synehubov, the governor of the region, said on the Telegram messaging app.

Another person had been killed in overnight attack on Soledar, close to Bakhmut in the Donetsk region, local officials said.

Reuters could not immediately verify those claims.

[Bevo 13527]

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

I’ve got some thoughts noodling around in my head about how, if this war ends in something close to the right way, Eastern Europe could be a “next economic frontier” with respect to redevelopment, cheap access to property and labor, and perhaps some thoughtful immigration to those places. But those thoughts sure haven’t gelled. I’d be curious to know/read some of the information out there on what people much smarter than I am think Eastern Europe might look like 10 years from now.

Three-fourths of the women working in the hotel and ski-resort I visited in northern Italy were from Eastern Europe and the same percentage were working in Iceland when I went there last winter.

[Captainant 27459]

Apologies for the CR content, but it's pretty directly relevant to Ukraine's future and preventing further death at the hands of the Russians:

Kevin McCarthy 'agreed to cut aid to Ukraine' to secure US speaker role

There may be less aid flowing to Ukraine in the future thanks to our jalopy legislative system

Edited January 8, 2023 by Captainant

[956 Worldwide 34443]

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

I’ve got some thoughts noodling around in my head about how, if this war ends in something close to the right way, Eastern Europe could be a “next economic frontier” with respect to redevelopment, cheap access to property and labor, and perhaps some thoughtful immigration to those places. But those thoughts sure haven’t gelled. I’d be curious to know/read some of the information out there on what people much smarter than I am think Eastern Europe might look like 10 years from now.

You have to define your parameters.  There’s going to be a huge difference in what happens on the eastern wing of NATO/the EU and what this all means for Europe outside of those structures.  And of course the main question here is how the war ends because it’s not at all certain when or how it does.  If Russia waits out the west and secures favorable terms from Ukraine that will have a major effect on stability and confidence for investors.  
 

A Russian loss brings lots of opportunities for renewal, basically to bring in countries like Ukraine and Moldova to the European sphere of prosperity. It would also have serious effects on the Balkans were Sebia’s client relationship would be damaged and could lead to real progress on integration and reform across the region. 
 

There will be lots of money sloshing around, but my advice to anyone would be “don’t get greedy, wait till stuff works. If you don’t know what’s happening here, now isn’t the time to learn.”

[MillerEP 30339]

I agree with a lot of what y'all are saying. Demographically both are fucked. However, Ukraine has a big advantage over Russia in the future, which is EU membership. Since the EU is primarily an economic bloc, this will allow Ukraine to bounce back. This would also allow for greater movement between other EU countries, and immigration might allow Ukraine to level out some, the same as the rest of Eastern Europe. 
Russia has economically isolated itself, they were already in a demographic crisis, and then it went and got over 100,0000+ more child-rearing age men killed (and counting), and lost hundreds of thousands more to fleeing mobilization, which could be permanent. They can't kidnap enough Ukrainian children to make up for that. If they fail economically the only one that may be able to come to rescue them is China, which isn't on the best footing itself, and comes with severe strings attached.