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Putting aside Germany's views on the war, the Germans are going to piss off enough potential customers, that will then look elsewhere for future purchases (French, British, American, and South Korean companies are all making tanks that could eat into German tank sales).

On the other hand, maybe there's something else going on and the Germans are worried the Leopards won't perform very well, which will eat into German tank sales.

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14 hours ago, Nivek said:

https://thesovietarmourblog.blogspot.com/p/30x165mm-cartridges.html

This guy's blog seems to indicate it is only effective against some tanks at <1000m from a pure perpendicular shot for the HEI rounds.  The AP rounds are effective against some spots on the old Bradleys/Marders and but the more recent ones should have nothing to worry about.   Is he right?

Sorry I missed this.  First, that blog is awesome.

Second, it's possible they couldn't do too much, but even if you ripped off a few hundred rounds at some tanks at that range (and in the city, the ranges would be closer), you'd still immobilize the tanks when the treads are destroyed, as well as any sensors on the turret.

I could see it being psychological though - any potential coup plotters thinking they could drive tanks up to the Kremlin and the other areas are going to have to contend with those batteries, as well as dudes with missiles.

 

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5 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Putting aside Germany's views on the war, the Germans are going to piss off enough potential customers, that will then look elsewhere for future purchases (French, British, American, and South Korean companies are all making tanks that could eat into German tank sales).

On the other hand, maybe there's something else going on and the Germans are worried the Leopards won't perform very well, which will eat into German tank sales.

I honestly think it has to do with the green subsidies in the Biden Energy Bill.  I think they are pissed about export markets.

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3 hours ago, Bateshorn said:

I honestly think it has to do with the green subsidies in the Biden Energy Bill.  I think they are pissed about export markets.

I am skeptical. First, because they’re still Allies and generally know better than to play this way when it comes to linking critical security issues to unrelated disagreements. 
 

But more importantly, this is working at cross purposes on that front. It’s not really us that’s leaning on them for the tanks, it’s Ukraine and most notably, other EU partners. They are the ones that want to send tanks and they are the ones that have their security most impacted by Ukraine, not us.  We’ve actually been pretty quiet and had those talks privately. 
 

Germany is pissed about the Inflation Reduction Act and Energy Bill and some of our closest friends in the EU have been telling us that Germany’s gearing up for a knock-down, drag out over it. 
 

So what they should be doing, if that’s really most important, is wooing all the rest of the EU27 by being super accommodating on other stuff. .  Not pissing off the EU nations that are already the most friendly towards America anyway over the tank issue. That’s not the way to get the EU to face us down in a nasty protectionism battle. 
 

A lot of this was concealed by Merkel’s unique presence and the Trump/Johnson years, but structurally, Germany is really weak at strategy and using its various levers to advance its goals.  They’re not good at it and we are seeing that now. 

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12 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

Not everyone thought the UA was going to roll over. @MillerEP, @atomheartbevo and @956 Worldwide and myself had faith. A defensive battle is a bitch to calculate. Russians attacked at the wrong time. 

I did expect them to own the air, but to my happiness that did not happen. 

Fuck Russia and their military. "They look good on the parade ground, but can they fight?" 

The Ukrainians have 8+ years of western training (US, UK, Canada) training on how to run command and control, leadership and coordination. That means a lot. 

Give them M-1's (8 only) to defend Kyiv. That opens up the door for leopards for ops. 

 

I haven’t gone through the old posts but I think I cautioned @Shady Ray and others that Ukraine was gonna be a much tougher nut than everyone thought and that Mariupol in particular would end up a total blood bath all around. I was shocked that Russia did not make more use of its strategic aviation and their general ineffectiveness (well, and not even attempt) at combined arms operations in the opening weeks. 
 

I don’t think anyone got this all right, anywhere. The Ukrainians are the ones that have earned unlimited respect through their blood. I hope after the war that we train them on systems and they teach us how to fucking fight. 

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This is not how you want your EU partners and treaty Allies communicating with you as you’re trying to convince them to stare down America over green tech subsidies: 

 

 

https://www.newstatesman.com/quickfire/2023/01/germany-ukraine-tanks-roadblock-europe
 

Spoiler

Even on Berlin’s narrow definition of its own interests, it is a dead end. The rest of Europe is starting to steer around Germany. On Wednesday evening Mateusz Morawiecki, the Polish prime minister, said in a radio interview that he could send the tanks without German approval. “Consent is of secondary importance here, we will either obtain this consent quickly, or we will do what is needed ourselves.” Sympathy for this point of view exists in much of eastern and northern Europe and is bound to grow if, as now seems likely, Scholz’s government continues to dither. But the pattern – of going around a Germany that simply seems unable to keep pace with events – is a broader one. On 19 January Emmanuel Macron, the French president, and Pedro Sánchez, the Spanish prime minister, signed a major treaty in Barcelona, a clear sign that Paris is losing patience with its relatively fruitless alliance with Berlin and is trying to work around it.

 

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29 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

I haven’t gone through the old posts but I think I cautioned @Shady Ray and others that Ukraine was gonna be a much tougher nut than everyone thought and that Mariupol in particular would end up a total blood bath all around. I was shocked that Russia did not make more use of its strategic aviation and their general ineffectiveness (well, and not even attempt) at combined arms operations in the opening weeks. 
 

I don’t think anyone got this all right, anywhere. The Ukrainians are the ones that have earned unlimited respect through their blood. I hope after the war that we train them on systems and they teach us how to fucking fight. 

I thought for sure Russia was going to roll over Ukraine like they did back in 2014 when the Ukraine government did manage to put together an armed force to go deal with the separatists. The UAF was doing really well until the Russian army crossed the border and completely annihilated them. Add in air support by what I thought would be a first world air force, I thought Ukraine's best chance was an elongated guerilla warfare that exacted too big a price on Russia for them to stick around. 

I completely overestimated Russia getting results over the past dozen years by modernizing their core armed force units into extremely well equipped, well trained, highly mobile force multipliers. I underestimated the insidious effect of putting a higher priority on loyalty and not being a potential threat to the "emperor" which was first made clear to me in Gibbons' Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire. Same kind of dynamics at work. The corruption is endemic, starting at the top. The internal security is valued more highly than the military. And people who don't parrot the orthodoxy according to Putin can have their lives ruined or ended. 

Now I just want Ukraine to get a chance to finish this thing. I'm very hopeful we'll see some breakthroughs versus the Russian defensive lines if the UAF has access to enough armor, and then we'll see how the demoralized Russian troops respond. 

There are a bunch of countries all willing to give 14 Leopard 2's apiece to Ukraine. Enough to just about add up to 100 or more. It's not the 300 they're asking for, but that's a good start in any case. 

Boy, this thing is going to be a logistics nightmare this spring and summer with all these various western systems coming into the theater. I don't see how they can feasibly maintain and repair all these different systems effectively. 

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34 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

There are a bunch of countries all willing to give 14 Leopard 2's apiece to Ukraine. Enough to just about add up to 100 or more. It's not the 300 they're asking for, but that's a good start in any case. 

Boy, this thing is going to be a logistics nightmare this spring and summer with all these various western systems coming into the theater. I don't see how they can feasibly maintain and repair all these different systems effectively. 

If you’re looking for why we aren’t just giving them Abrams, this is it. We’re not throwing whatever we have so they can mount a desperate defense.  Leopards are the solution for a Western MBT to use in any offensive. 

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43 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

If you’re looking for why we aren’t just giving them Abrams, this is it. We’re not throwing whatever we have so they can mount a desperate defense.  Leopards are the solution for a Western MBT to use in any offensive. 

Literally the only reason to give the Ukrainians the gas guzzling, high maintenance, expensive logistics nightmare Abrams is to compel Germany to give permission on the Leopards. That's it. Germany doesn't even have that many Leopards themselves, so they'd be a minor direct exporter at best. The manufacturer isn't prepared to build Leopards either for Ukraine or to backfill other countries supplying them with any kind of alacrity. It's literally just compelling the German government to give foreign governments the go ahead to do what they want to do already. Several of them such as Poland already indicating they're going to do it anyway with or without permission. 

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34 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

So in restrospect, was the Abrams wrong?  Should we have kept working with Germany in the 70's on a joint MBT?  Hey, the Abrams is the most kickass tank there is.  But it's a Lamborghini Avendator in a NATO filled with F150's that are more than capable.  Should we have got the Leopard, put a tune and a lift kit on it, maybe some stripes, and called it good?

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57 minutes ago, Parliament said:

So in restrospect, was the Abrams wrong?  Should we have kept working with Germany in the 70's on a joint MBT?  Hey, the Abrams is the most kickass tank there is.  But it's a Lamborghini Avendator in a NATO filled with F150's that are more than capable.  Should we have got the Leopard, put a tune and a lift kit on it, maybe some stripes, and called it good?

Tank Nutz??

CHIEF

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1 hour ago, Parliament said:

So in restrospect, was the Abrams wrong?  Should we have kept working with Germany in the 70's on a joint MBT?  Hey, the Abrams is the most kickass tank there is.  But it's a Lamborghini Avendator in a NATO filled with F150's that are more than capable.  Should we have got the Leopard, put a tune and a lift kit on it, maybe some stripes, and called it good?

I see what you are saying.

But the thing about the Aventador is that it is fucking kick ass and everyone wants it when it drives by. The problem with maintenance costs, logistics, fuel are only “problems” for the people that can’t afford it/manage it.

The US can afford the Aventador\Abrams and the decision to build it (as mentioned up thread) was never to be exporting it to other countries to fight with.

So to ask if the Abrams is “wrong” is only pertinent to this exact situation.

I doubt anyone in Command in Iraq ever wondered, “ I sure wish we had some German Leapords instead of these AWESOME Abrams”

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The Abrams was built at a time when we began to believe we could defeat the Soviets in a conventional war, although we’d be outgunned quantitatively. 
 

That war never happened but we can’t say we were “wrong” because it’s not the best platform to help one part of the former Union defeat another. 

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Hey I get it.  Wondering out loud is all.  

Last night some people were fantasizing about scenarios where the war escalated (and presumably didn't go nuclear.) My fantasy is 1000 American Leopards being delivered with full gas tanks and magazines, to the UKA in October 2022.   

Edited by Parliament
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Don’t Fear Putin’s Demise

Victory for Ukraine, Democracy for Russia

 
Spoiler

Ukraine’s advances on the battlefield to the West’s enduring unity and resolve in the face of Putin’s aggression points to 2023 being a decisive year. If the West holds firm, Putin’s regime will likely collapse in the near future.

Yet some of Ukraine’s key partners continue to resist supplying Kyiv with the weapons it needs to deliver the knockout punch. The administration of U.S. President Joe Biden in particular seems afraid of the chaos that could accompany a decisive Kremlin defeat. It has declined to send the tanks, long-range missile systems, and drones that would allow Ukrainian forces to take the fight to their attackers, reclaim their territory, and end the war. The end of Putin’s tyrannical rule will indeed radically change Russia (and the rest of the world)—but not in the way the White House thinks. Rather than destabilizing Russia and its neighbors, a Ukrainian victory would eliminate a powerful revanchist force and boost the cause of democracy worldwide.

Pro-democracy Russians who reject the totalitarian Putin regime—a group to which the authors belong—are doing what they can to help Ukraine liberate all occupied territories and restore its territorial integrity in accordance with the internationally recognized borders of 1991. We are also planning for the day after Putin. The Russian Action Committee, a coalition of opposition groups in exile that we co-founded in May 2022, aims to ensure that Ukraine is justly compensated for the damage caused by Putin’s aggression, that all war criminals are held accountable, and that Russia is transformed from a rogue dictatorship into a parliamentary federal republic. The looming end of Putin’s reign need not be feared, in other words; it should be welcomed with open arms.

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UNFOUNDED FEARS

Putin’s effort to restore Russia’s lost empire is destined to fail. The moment is therefore ripe for a transition to democracy and a devolution of power to the regional levels. But for such a political transformation to take place, Putin must be defeated militarily in Ukraine. A decisive loss on the battlefield would pierce Putin’s aura of invincibility and expose him as the architect of a failing state, making his regime vulnerable to challenge from within.

The West, and above all the United States, is capable of providing the military and financial support to hasten the inevitable and propel Ukraine to a speedy victory. But the Biden administration still hasn’t coalesced around a clear endgame for the war, and some U.S. officials have suggested that Kyiv should consider giving up part of its territory in pursuit of peace—suggestions that are not reassuring. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has made it clear that the Ukrainian people will never accept such a deal. Any territorial concessions made to Putin will inevitably lead to another war down the road.

 

At the root of Washington’s unwillingness to supply the necessary weapons lies a fear of the potential consequences of decisively defeating Russia in Ukraine. Many in the Biden administration believe that Putin’s downfall could trigger the collapse of Russia, plunging the nuclear-armed state into chaos and potentially strengthening China.

 

Putin’s aggression has exposed the inherent instability of his model of government.

 

But such fears are overstated. The risk of a Russian collapse is, of course, real. But it is greater with Putin in office—pushing the country in an ever more centralized and militarized direction—than it would be under a democratic, federal regime. The longer the current regime remains in power, the greater the risk of an unpredictable rupture. Putin’s aggression has exposed the inherent instability of his model of government, which is built on the need to confront foreign enemies. The Kremlin Mafia, having turned Russia into a staging ground for its military plans, has already threatened to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. It is not the collapse of Putin’s regime that Washington should fear, therefore, but its continued survival.

For nearly two decades, some Western pundits have claimed that the Russian people will never accept democracy and that Russia is doomed to revanchism. Indeed, Putin’s propaganda has managed to instill in a sizable segment of Russian society the view that Western values are entirely alien to Russia. But economic integration with the West has enabled other countries to overcome a fascist heritage. And deeper integration with Europe, coupled with the conditional easing of Western sanctions, could help Russia do the same.

In the aftermath of Putin’s military defeat, Russia would have to choose: either become a vassal of China or begin reintegrating with Europe (having first justly compensated Ukraine for the damage inflicted during the war and punished those guilty of war crimes). For the majority of Russians, the choice in favor of peace, freedom, and flourishing would be obvious—and made even more so by the rapid reconstruction of Ukraine.

HOPE OVER FEAR

Putin’s military defeat would help catalyze a political transformation in Russia, making it possible for those seeking a brighter future to dismantle the old regime and forge a new political reality. The Russian Action Committee has laid out a blueprint for this transformation, aiming to reestablish the Russian state “on the principles of the rule of law, federalism, parliamentarism, a clear separation of powers and prioritizing human rights and freedoms over abstract ‘state interests.’ ” Our vision is for Russia to become a parliamentary republic and a federal state with only limited centralized powers (those necessary to conduct foreign and defense policy and protect citizens’ rights) and much stronger regional governments.

Getting there will take time. Within two years of the dissolution of Putin’s regime, Russians would elect a constituent assembly to adopt a new constitution and determine a new system of regional bodies. But in the short term, before that assembly could be seated, a transitional state council with legislative powers would be needed to oversee a temporary technocratic government. Its nucleus would be composed of Russians committed to the rule of law, those who have publicly disavowed Putin’s war and his illegitimate regime. Most have been forced into exile, where we have been free to organize and create a virtual civil society in absentia. Such preparations will enable us to act swiftly and work with the Western powers whose cooperation the new Russian government will need to stabilize the economy.

 

Immediately after assuming power, the state council would conclude a peace agreement with Ukraine, recognizing the country’s 1991 borders and justly compensating it for the damage caused by Putin’s war. The state council would also formally reject the imperial policies of the Putin regime, both within Russia and abroad, including by ceasing all formal and informal support for pro-Russian entities in the countries of the former Soviet Union. And it would end Russia’s long-running confrontation with the West, transitioning instead to a foreign policy based on peace, partnership, and integration into Euro-Atlantic institutions.

 

The United States cannot let its fears stand in the way of Ukraine’s hopes.

 

On the home front, the state council would begin to demilitarize Russia, reducing the size of the armed forces and by extension the cost of their maintenance. It would also dissolve the organs of Putin’s police state, including the repressive Federal Security Service and Center for Combating Extremism, and repeal all repressive laws adopted during Putin’s rule. All political prisoners would be released and fully rehabilitated, and a broader amnesty program would be adopted to reduce the overall number of prisoners in Russia.

At the federal level, the state council would pursue lustration, conducting open and thorough investigations of former officials to disqualify those responsible for the prior regime’s abuses. In addition, it would liquidate all political parties and public organizations that supported the invasion of Ukraine, so that they cannot interfere with the construction of a new Russia. At the same time, the council would liberalize electoral laws, simplify the process for registering political parties, and scrap Putin-era restrictions on rallies, strikes, and demonstrations.

The state council would also begin the process of decentralizing the country, transferring broad powers to the regions, including in the budgetary sphere. Such reforms would weaken Russia’s all-powerful imperial center: if the federal government does not have total control over state finances, then it won’t have the means to wage military adventures.

Finally, the council would ensure that war criminals and senior officials from Putin’s regime were held accountable. Those responsible for the worst war crimes would be tried in an international tribunal, and Russia itself would try the rest. To do so, it would need to draw a clear line between war criminals and former regime operatives—offering various forms of compromise with the latter to better assure a peaceful transition.

This is a make-or-break moment for Ukraine. Biden can turn the tide in Kyiv’s favor by backing up his declarations of support with the delivery of tanks and long-range weaponry. He can also hasten the demise of Putin’s regime, opening up the possibility of a democratic future for Russia and demonstrating to the world the folly of military aggression. The United States cannot let its fears stand in the way of Ukraine’s hopes

 

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2 hours ago, Orange&amp;White said:

I see what you are saying.

But the thing about the Aventador is that it is fucking kick ass and everyone wants it when it drives by. The problem with maintenance costs, logistics, fuel are only “problems” for the people that can’t afford it/manage it.

The US can afford the Aventador\Abrams and the decision to build it (as mentioned up thread) was never to be exporting it to other countries to fight with.

So to ask if the Abrams is “wrong” is only pertinent to this exact situation.

I doubt anyone in Command in Iraq ever wondered, “ I sure wish we had some German Leapords instead of these AWESOME Abrams”

If you have the logistics, the Abrams is the tits.  

This isn’t about the Abrams, it’s about the Germans wanting the war to end in some sort of current status quo in hopes of reviving its cheap commodities relationship with Russia that allows it (Germany) to go back to the export driven economy and 800 lb. Gorilla in EU politics.  
 

That isn’t going to happen. The fact the Dutch are on the edge of telling the Germans to fuck themselves and ship tanks directly tells you where the winds are blowing. 

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12 minutes ago, Post Oak said:

Zeihan thinks that's what is going to happen and then those Euro countries will just buy Abrams instead of Leopards to fill their needs

Live feed from the General Dynamics board room:

AnchoredFlashyBrownbutterfly-small.gif

 

And those gas hog Abrams's are gonna need a LOT of sweet, sweet Houston-refined jet fuel.  God damn it's good to be a gansta!

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That post about the Russian Action Committee is wishcasting.

Yes, Putin’s regime has to die. And yes, it’s right to be concerned about what will replace it. And, I hate to break it to you, RAC…you don’t have a chance. Russian society and the Russian people aren’t going to take to “democracy and the rule of law.” Ever. I don’t know what the answer is, I just know that their plan is a pipe dream.

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5 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

That post about the Russian Action Committee is wishcasting.

Yes, Putin’s regime has to die. And yes, it’s right to be concerned about what will replace it. And, I hate to break it to you, RAC…you don’t have a chance. Russian society and the Russian people aren’t going to take to “democracy and the rule of law.” Ever. I don’t know what the answer is, I just know that their plan is a pipe dream.

I’ve been thinking about this lately Brisket.  In the 1940s I’m sure I would’ve said this about a defeated Japan and a defeated Germany as well.  Two countries that breathed authoritarian air and had it in their DNA.  And while the former Soviet union crumbled, it was an economic and not a military defeat.   In other words, the current Russian federation has a mindset more like Germany after World War I.  While defeated, they still harbored some conscious or subconscious view that they really weren’t defeated - they were just betrayed by Gorbachov, etc. 

Both of the other enemy countries that we defeated concerned an actual blown to shit, killed huge numbers of men military defeat.   In both cases an extremely humiliating defeat that made them question their view that they were the respective master races of their area.    Only when they were totally conquered and their noses shoved in shit did they come to realize that the better way was democracy and western capitalism.  

So maybe the fault is Russia not having experienced their noses shoved in shit through an actual crushing military defeat killing lots of Russians and destroying their economy.   Not an economic depression like the collapse of the Soviet Union, but a good old fashioned military defeat coupled with a North Korean economy - and olds and widows not getting pensions anymore. 

Let’s do that and see how it turns out. Maybe they will collectively get right in their heads when the pain meter is set at 11 instead of at 5.  If not, let them spend the next 50 years in dirt clod fights between Russian villages over limited amounts of spoiled cabbage. 

40 minutes ago, Parliament said:

ETA

The US lets Saudi Arabia use their Abrams's to commit genocide in Yemen, so those European customers won't hafta worry about is ever getting all uppity about how they're gonna use them.  

Did you have to send the bat signal up for Ani?

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1 hour ago, Parliament said:

ETA

The US lets Saudi Arabia use their Abrams's to commit genocide in Yemen, so those European customers won't hafta worry about is ever getting all uppity about how they're gonna use them.  

 

1 hour ago, Bateshorn said:

French let the UAE use the LeClerc to do the same. 

 

Simplistic and facile. With the Yemeni rebels launching scuds into Saudi refineries, drones into Saudi cities, and threatening global trade in the Red sea, what would you have the Saudis do?

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2 hours ago, MillerEP said:

 

Where the fuck is the seized yacht???!?!?!?!??!!!!

"Uh, a couple of sailors took it out to get it washed sir/"

GET IT WASHED?!?!? 

seriously, that can't be that hard to find using satellite.  Oh wait, it's Italy.  That country I always think of first when it comes to maritime integrity.  

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10 minutes ago, YGIFS said:

Where the fuck is the seized yacht???!?!?!?!??!!!!

"Uh, a couple of sailors took it out to get it washed sir/"

GET IT WASHED?!?!? 

seriously, that can't be that hard to find using satellite.  Oh wait, it's Italy.  That country I always think of first when it comes to maritime integrity.  

Italian satellites?

[Qanon-ing intensifies]

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11 minutes ago, YGIFS said:

Where the fuck is the seized yacht???!?!?!?!??!!!!

"Uh, a couple of sailors took it out to get it washed sir/"

GET IT WASHED?!?!? 

seriously, that can't be that hard to find using satellite.  Oh wait, it's Italy.  That country I always think of first when it comes to maritime integrity.  

If you had a satellite tracking it constantly, you could find it easily. But even using computer vision techniques to crunch through satellite imagery takes a while. Oceans are fucking big it turns out lol

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Yes, oceans are big.  But I just assumed that he took it through Istanbul to the Black Sea and Turkey would have noticed it.  

Or they tried to get out to the Atlantic but Britain photographs every single ship passing through Gibraltar.  Maybe the Red Sea? 

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Just now, YGIFS said:

Yes, oceans are big.  But I just assumed that he took it through Istanbul to the Black Sea and Turkey would have noticed it.  

Or they tried to get out to the Atlantic but Britain photographs every single ship passing through Gibraltar.  Maybe the Red Sea? 

Do you even dazzle camouflage, bro?

dazzle_camo_1050x700.jpg

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