Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[Gatorubet 30088]

boss has new strategy. This time we run faster.

 

Edited February 7, 2023 by Gatorubet

[MillerEP 30339]

 

[Gatorubet 30088]

43 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Also, she needs to die.  Shot as she gets out of her car, whatever.  Drop her.

She was appointed head of RT at age 25.   Something, something chrome off Putin’s trailer hitch.

[Brisketexan 104585]

3 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

She was appointed head of RT at age 25.   Something, something chrome off Putin’s trailer hitch.

Cool.  Vlad can have sex with her corpse.  She needs to bleed out on a sidewalk, gasping for breath as the bloody froth fills her lungs.  She has trafficked and gleefully endorsed death and suffering so much, she should be able to savor the fruits of her labor.

[956 Worldwide 34428]

2 hours ago, MillerEP said:

PMCs are not legal under Russian law. Nearly everything said or told about Wagner is obfuscation and lies. For instance, Prigozhin denied he was affiliated with Wagner until suddenly it became more useful to say he was in charge of Wagner. He even successfully sued western media outlets over the issue, and then overnight dropped the charade. 
 

But here are some things about Wagner: they train at Russian military bases. They use Russian military equipment. Every action they’ve been involved in has served the interests of the Russian government. 
 

They have in the past been useful as (im)plausible deniability in Africa. In the current conflict, their bizarre status as a not-legal entity allows them to do things the Russian MoD cannot do, like recruit convicts and fudge about casualty numbers and generally serve as a nice cutout to make it seem like the Russian military and its army of mobiks aren’t getting massacred— Wagner is. And law is weaponized in Russia, it is very important to appear to follow it for state structures. 
 

That’s not to say there aren’t bureaucratic rivalries and internal disputes between various MoD/GRU elements, and fights for the boss’ ear including what functions as Wagner. But it isn’t helpful to think of Wagner as Prigozhin’s private army (it’s more like Putin’s personal- not private—army) or to think of Prigozhin as someone who ever had an actual independent base of power not wholly dependent on Putin. 

[Gatorubet 30088]

2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Cool.  Vlad can have sex with her corpse.  She needs to bleed out on a sidewalk, gasping for breath as the bloody froth fills her lungs.  She has trafficked and gleefully endorsed death and suffering so much, she should be able to savor the fruits of her labor.

I have no problem with her swiping right on the Date a Chechen Battalion app.

[SydneyCarton 47871]

Someone smarter than me, kindly explain who the fuck Gazprom is going to recruit for their new private army? Or more specifically, what pool are they going to draw from? Wagner has had private mercenaries for awhile, and now convicts. The Russian Army soldiers aren't going anywhere any time soon, they've all been their equivalent of Stop-Loss'd in the army, and that's if they weren't all in Ukraine already without a ride home. Hundreds of thousands of conscripts, with allegedly hundreds of thousands more are on the way to join the Russian Army. The prisons are empty. Where the fuck are these new soldiers coming from, exactly? At best it would be rearranging the deck chairs on the titanic. What am I missing?

[Rimbo 25777]

46 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

[MillerEP 30339]

 

[Rimbo 25777]

10 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Cool.  Vlad can have sex with her corpse.  She needs to bleed out on a sidewalk, gasping for breath as the bloody froth fills her lungs.  She has trafficked and gleefully endorsed death and suffering so much, she should be able to savor the fruits of her labor.

ok this is just getting creepy now

[Gatorubet 30088]

4 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

 That’s not to say there aren’t bureaucratic rivalries and internal disputes between various MoD/GRU elements, and fights for the boss’ ear including what functions as Wagner. But it isn’t helpful to think of Wagner as Prigozhin’s private army (it’s more like Putin’s personal- not private—army) or to think of Prigozhin as someone who ever had an actual independent base of power not wholly dependent on Putin. 

How is Prigozhin’s badmouthing of MoD leaders seen? At Putin’s direction - or Prigozhin feeling full of himself?Is the Gazprom news simply a slight public smackdown to make sure Prigozhin does not forget he is Putin’s puppet…or mistakenly think he has a shot at any political future? 

Russia is truly a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma. 

[MillerEP 30339]

 

[956 Worldwide 34428]

6 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

How is Prigozhin’s badmouthing of MoD leaders seen? At Putin’s direction - or Prigozhin feeling full of himself?Is the Gazprom news simply a slight public smackdown to make sure Prigozhin does not forget he is Putin’s puppet…or mistakenly think he has a shot at any political future? 

Russia is truly a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma. 

With all this stuff, it’s hard to tell. If the Gazprom bit is true, my personal bet would be that they need more of these semi-merc types and that the current structure of Wagner can’t support it anymore.  International payments still flow to Gazprom since Europe isn’t fully disconnected and so that could be a big draw. I can’t say enough to know what Prigozhin’s aim is— but he’s been known to try and use his role for personal gain and favor with the boss but NEVER to step out of line. 
 

Prigozhin made his fortune in food and service contracts for the MoD and other state entities. It’s easy enough to see how this works, he’s not really the “finance” man for the group. It’s not his money. The MoD and GRU pass Wagner’s budget through him and he takes a healthy cut. 
 

Bellingcat has done a number of exposes on this, including coming THISCLOSE to validating Ukrainian claims that the GRU batch-issues passports for Wagner operatives. 

Edited February 7, 2023 by 956 Worldwide

[BamaATL 16592]

12 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Someone smarter than me, kindly explain who the fuck Gazprom is going to recruit for their new private army? Or more specifically, what pool are they going to draw from? Wagner has had private mercenaries for awhile, and now convicts. The Russian Army soldiers aren't going anywhere any time soon, they've all been their equivalent of Stop-Loss'd in the army, and that's if they weren't all in Ukraine already without a ride home. Hundreds of thousands of conscripts, with allegedly hundreds of thousands more are on the way to join the Russian Army. The prisons are empty. Where the fuck are these new soldiers coming from, exactly? At best it would be rearranging the deck chairs on the titanic. What am I missing?

putin can hide the costs associated with this from public (russian) view.  He can divert revenue without really very many people actually knowing the full cost.  Considering the budgetary shortfall he is experiencing in the public view, this is a way to pay mercenaries regardless of the cost.  Also, he gives less than a shit if he bankrupts a semi private company.  That's at least why he would do this.  As to who would sign up, well, there are plenty of poor people around the world, and the prospect of whatever financial offer he is making will be tempting to at least some of them.  

[Brisketexan 104585]

17 minutes ago, Rimbo said:

ok this is just getting creepy now

Oh, I can get a LOT fucking darker than that.  Instruments of the Russian state should suffer.  In unspeakable ways.  Everything that they have supported and cheered for should be visited upon them, tenfold.

Her bleeding out and choking on her own lifeblood would be merciful compared to what she has facilitated in Ukraine.  She deserves much, much worse.

[BamaATL 16592]

There is a PETA joke to be made with the fur coats, but I just couldn't get there.  Anyway, I can't imagine the indignity of having a loved one killed in action for who the fuck knows why (their perspective) and to be given a fucking jacket for loss as compensation.   A car is a general insult, but this is something else.  I can't imagine that this is good PR even for these asshats.  

[RDCanecutter 26250]

36 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Someone smarter than me, kindly explain who the fuck Gazprom is going to recruit for their new private army? Or more specifically, what pool are they going to draw from? Wagner has had private mercenaries for awhile, and now convicts. The Russian Army soldiers aren't going anywhere any time soon, they've all been their equivalent of Stop-Loss'd in the army, and that's if they weren't all in Ukraine already without a ride home. Hundreds of thousands of conscripts, with allegedly hundreds of thousands more are on the way to join the Russian Army. The prisons are empty. Where the fuck are these new soldiers coming from, exactly? At best it would be rearranging the deck chairs on the titanic. What am I missing?

An Army of Russian Vimmen.

[Schulz2.0 28767]

 

[Schulz2.0 28767]

34 minutes ago, RDCanecutter said:

An Army of Russian Vimmen.

[Chad Fuck 17562]

2 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

 

Meanwhile, at the offices of Lockheed Martin...

[ABSR 5289]

43 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

There is a PETA joke to be made with the fur coats, but I just couldn't get there.  Anyway, I can't imagine the indignity of having a loved one killed in action for who the fuck knows why (their perspective) and to be given a fucking jacket for loss as compensation.   A car is a general insult, but this is something else.  I can't imagine that this is good PR even for these asshats.  

But to be fair, Russian men seem to be shitty people, human beings and likely husbands.  So their death is the prize and the coat is a bonus!

[Parliament 14133]

8 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

 

My God how much hookers and blow is General Dynamics gonna run through this week?

[Dahobbs 17444]

4 minutes ago, Parliament said:

My God how much hookers and blow is General Dynamics gonna run through this week?

Plenty I'm sure, but this contract is for Lockheed. 

[KYHorn 16861]

 

 

[KYHorn 16861]

 

 

 

 

 

[KYHorn 16861]

 

 

Edited February 8, 2023 by KYHorn

[KYHorn 16861]

 

Edited February 8, 2023 by KYHorn

[KYHorn 16861]

 

 

 

[KYHorn 16861]

His estimates for when/if UKA will evacuate Bakhmut 

 

[686 3404]

Meanwhile, at the offices of Lockheed Martin...

Ukraine just helped Lockheed to I think literally execute this sales pitch:

[686 3404]

If I’m Lockheed, I’m having 20 of these coolers done up for the Poles and the boys at the Pentagon.

[Viper 12028]

 

 

  

 

Edited February 8, 2023 by Viper

[Parliament 14133]

Went in all arrogant, got their asses beat, learned nothing, and somehow became more arrogant.  Aggy.  Aggy all the way.

[686 3404]

Went in all arrogant, got their asses beat, learned nothing, and somehow became more arrogant.  Aggy.  Aggy all the way.

One of the replies in the thread was wondering if this is being released now to communicate something inside Russia. Like Wagner (maybe Russian Army?) conveying to Putin and the general public: “the US completely annihilated our superior attacking force with Reapers, Apaches, F-16s, and stationary/aerial artillery in Syria. A little US artillery is already in Ukraine (fucking us up daily) and they’re talking about Reapers and F-16s now, if you wait till those weapons, etc. are in theater to finish this thing up, we’re fucked”

[Brisketexan 104585]

So, went to the Kasparov event tonight. It was fantastic. He didn’t pussyfoot around, he went right into discussing Ukraine, Russia, etc.

I took notes of particularly interesting points; Lobo criticized me for having my face in my phone at times, but I was typing.

Below are my raw notes, I ain’t a court reporter.

——————

In the last few years, so many politicians have turned into clowns, and a comedian has become a hero.

We must judge things relatively. Maybe the dollar has weakness, but the other currencies are weaker.

Ukraine is the frontline of freedom, in the never-ending battle between freedom and tyranny.

Why was Putin so wrong about how Ukraine would receive him? Goes back to 1994, and Yeltsin, and him launching the war in Chechnya. At the same time, Ukraine saw something Russia never has - a peaceful transition of power. For all its ills, it had a civil society that would not accept a ruler they did not choose.

They demonstrate to us that there are values worth fighting and dying for.

Americans got it wrong - thought that Ukraine would fold in two weeks, so we shouldn’t give them weapons that will end up in Russian hands.

Dictators lie about what they did, but they are always telling us what they are GOING to do, accurately (see Mein Kampf).

One of Putin’s first acts - restoring Soviet anthem. It’s a symbol, but dictators need symbols. He remained reserved about his plans, because he wasn’t ready to move on them. Kasparov knew what he was going to do if ever given the chance, and he’s gotten it.

Skyrocketing oil prices gave Russian people a taste of “normal life.” McDonald’s, etc. It MUST be a democracy, right?

The parallels between 2014 Russia (Sochi Olympics) and 1936 Germany (Berlin Olympics) were strong. And people overlooked these rising problems because business is business, and we ignore the lessons of history. 20 months after 1936 games, Hitler annexed Austria. 20 DAYS after Sochi, Putin annexed Crimea.

Weakness from Obama and red lines. Merkel said we can’t get off German gas, she had 16 years. Turns out they could get off Russian gas in 10 days. Weakness of western leaders emboldened Putin.

Putin has an army, money, and nukes, yes. But let’s go back to 1941. Great things happen due to leadership or lack thereof.

January 1943, Casablanca conference, set the goal of “unconditional surrender,” which took political will.

The challenge of Stalin taking over West Berlin. For 11 months, allied leadership defeated him. I am a Berliner. Tear down this wall. Leadership moments. How can you expect a wall to come down that’s been here so long? Bold leaders push it.

Now, when people look at America, they don’t know what it is. We used to have a consistent policy approach when it came to the Cold War. We are still a factor, but it depends on who is in the White House.

The aid we provide is much less than Ukraine needs, but much more than Putin expects.

Tucker Carlson is Russian propaganda - is he parroting them, or are they parroting him?

Our fear of China sounds exactly like our concern about a rising Japan in the 80s. Yet for all we fear China, they couldn’t come up with a decent vax, we did.

The remedy to these problems is freedom and creativity that comes with it.

What has surprised him? The volume of the genocidal crimes committed in Ukraine. And how many Russians accept it. They don’t WANT to know the alternative (true) viewpoint. It’s a shield that protects their conscience.

Russian message now is that they have to deplete the Ukrainian forces, fight to the last Ukrainian. There’s already a quarter million dead soldiers, total. Went from 60,000 artillery rounds fired a day to 15-20k, though.

Re the warnings that the West is sleepwalking into WWIII - we are already in WWIII, Putin already decided that. This was never about Ukraine, which he doesn’t recognize as a true independent nation. It was an attack on the rest of the world, governed by treaties, agreements, and the rule of law. It’s about BEING the law, via might makes right. Indeed, some Russians thought WWIII was the Cold War, which they lost. This is WWIV. And we were sleepwalking, BEFORE this war.

He’s not playing chess. He’s playing Poker, with bluffing, and watching your opponents fold on your bluff time and again. He thought that the free world would fold, and he would have been right, but for Ukrainian leadership and courage.

Re: taking back Ukraine, is it an attack on Russian soil? We’re back to poker, and probabilities about the risk of escalation. Dictators move to take advantage of perceived weakness. He thought he could get away with it. Oh, and when you say it’s not a bluff…it’s a bluff. All other dictators are watching this. Ukraine affects Taiwan’s fate. Ukraine’s victory would make dictators tremble, its loss will do the opposite. It even inspires the Iranian revolution - “I wish Russian men had the courage of Iranian women.”

He wants reparations to be paid, and war criminals brought to justice. And as long as Putin is in power, the war won’t end. Empires like that must expand, if they retreat, they collapse. War is the only justification for him remaining in power. The liberation of Ukraine is the first step to liberating Russia - true Russian patriots should be doing all the can to help Ukraine win.

How will it end and how is Ukriane succeeding? Freedom wins. He’s an optimist by nature, history doesn’t end. We know that evil doesn’t die. It may be dormant, but when we become complacent, it rises up. Ukraine wins because they are creative. He believes it ends this year (optimist), because attrition plays to Putin’s hands. We don’t want this war to be an issue in our presidential campaign. Victory for Ukraine is victory for Russia.

How and why does Putin leave (bullet, coup)? He’d rather not speculate, instead talk about what history shows us. Weakness, losing, is when he leaves.

Big difference between Russia and Ukraine: Russia is still an imperial mindset (comes with conquest, expansion). Ukraine has shifted to a statehood view. Russia has to make that shift.

The only way to wake up Russian society is a decisive military defeat. The Russian public needs to understand that the age of Russian empire is over. There are parts of Russia that will break away. If it makes the transition from empire to national state, it will be smaller. We don’t know the outcome of the collapse of the Russian empire exactly. We don’t know how and when it will end, but it will end.
He will fall because his powers will fail. Dictators need a myth, and a loss shatters that myth (loss of Crimea would do that).

Will leadership go along with him if he wants to use nukes? What would a mafia do? Dying for and with him is not what they’re interested in.

Interesting question to him: What is a downside of being intelligent? Frustration. What seems obvious to him, why don’t others see it? He also knows the limits of his skills, he knows what he’s good at and what he’s bad at.

Do you believe Ukraine can win without sustained western support, and will we support them long and strong enough? No, they need our support across the board. But they really don’t need that much. Most of our aid is weapons sitting in storage. They just need what we have in stock. It is not a charitable contribution - THIS is the war that NATO has been preparing for since 1949. The planned battlefield was the Rhine, now it’s the Dnipro. The principles are the same, Ukraine is doing what NATO was built for. Imagine, we can end the Russian problem by supplying Ukraine with our weapons. It’s crazy that it’s even a debate. It’s the greatest bargain imaginable.

This is our war. Putin is fighting us. He is fighting the world we live in, the world of the rule of law and norms that has made us successful and prosperous.

—————
Lots to digest. Really interesting stuff from a voice who has been sounding the alarm on Putin’s plans for over 20 years.

[InkaUtexas 25506]

Thank you @Brisketexan  I need to walk away, think what you wrote, and reread it. But I think he would be a great member of the Surl. We should send him a 3.50 membership. 

[YGIFS 19449]

I didn't criticize you, I just thought you were trying to take pics of the girl at your 7 with the Susanna Hoffs hair.  For going completely sans-script (or sanskrit, if you will), he was amazing.  It helps that he's lived a thousand lives and a lot of people want him dead, people who know how.  Curious venue as well.  Good that there was plenty of students there, not as many as I would have liked (old farts like us), but a promising start.  

How tempting must it be to compare geo-political warfare to chess when you are the best at chess and pretty dammed well-versed at geo-politics.  I know nothing about nothing, and I like to compare the war in Ukraine to my lack of fiber.  

[Brisketexan 104585]

I didn't criticize you, I just thought you were trying to take pics of the girl at your 7 with the Susanna Hoffs hair.  For going completely sans-script (or sanskrit, if you will), he was amazing.  It helps that he's lived a thousand lives and a lot of people want him dead, people who know how.  Curious venue as well.  Good that there was plenty of students there, not as many as I would have liked (old farts like us), but a promising start.  
How tempting must it be to compare geo-political warfare to chess when you are the best at chess and pretty dammed well-versed at geo-politics.  I know nothing about nothing, and I like to compare the war in Ukraine to my lack of fiber.  

The war in Ukraine makes you constipated?

[YGIFS 19449]

Just now, Brisketexan said:

The war in Ukraine makes you constipated?

Like you wouldn't believe.  I missed the last two questions so maybe he did.  But what was so cool was he could have easily tied this all to a chess match, 'cause you know he dabbles in checkers.  But he just knows fuck about shit everything.  Makes my perfunctory knowledge of my city council's onlyfans page seem lame by comparison.  

[Brisketexan 104585]

Thank you [mention=593]Brisketexan[/mention]  I need to walk away, think what you wrote, and reread it. But I think he would be a great member of the Surl. We should send him a 3.50 membership. 

I mean…I literally thought the same thing. Especially when he was asked about the downside of being brilliant. Man, don’t we Surlsters feel him on that one? Also, when he answered one question with “PM Derka,” I did raise an eyebrow.

[InkaUtexas 25506]

That post need to be moved to Classics so it can be found easily. This thread moves fast. 

[686 3404]

Good listen here. Canadian sniper killed 18 Russians in two days, says it was kinda bothersome, too many human waves, just “too easy” shooting obviously non-professionals. Shots from around 500m to 1800m.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/podcasts/the-decibel/article-a-canadian-sniper-on-the-battle-for-bakhmut-ukraine/

[atomheartbevo 89414]

36 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Dictators lie about what they did, but they are always telling us what they are GOING to do, accurately (see Mein Kampf).

This is one of the things that really stands out about Putin - the man has literally written about what he intends to do, he talks about what he's going to do, he sends his talking heads out on nightly TV to tell everybody what he intends to do.

[Brisketexan 104585]

Kasparov and professor Bobbitt (who worked, umm, VERY closely with one of my classmates back in the day):



Also, the complete lack of security concerned me a bit. The man is a known target of a murderous fuckstick. I’d like it if he were more protected, but then, maybe he’s so high profile that protects him.

[InkaUtexas 25506]

Security at events like this is usually hidden. Could have been the person behind you. 

[The Dog 43801]

12 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Security at events like this is usually hidden. Could have been the person behind you. 

[InkaUtexas 25506]

Holy shit..... Life in Siberia. Anyone want to say how accurate this is? I love Son shooting up at the end. 

 

[PTINS 3442]

2 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

So, went to the Kasparov event tonight. It was fantastic. He didn’t pussyfoot around, he went right into discussing Ukraine, Russia, etc.

I took notes of particularly interesting points; Lobo criticized me for having my face in my phone at times, but I was typing.

Below are my raw notes, I ain’t a court reporter.

——————

In the last few years, so many politicians have turned into clowns, and a comedian has become a hero.

We must judge things relatively. Maybe the dollar has weakness, but the other currencies are weaker.

Ukraine is the frontline of freedom, in the never-ending battle between freedom and tyranny.

Why was Putin so wrong about how Ukraine would receive him? Goes back to 1994, and Yeltsin, and him launching the war in Chechnya. At the same time, Ukraine saw something Russia never has - a peaceful transition of power. For all its ills, it had a "Civil Society ... We the People"  that would not accept a ruler they did not choose.

They demonstrate to us that there are values worth fighting and dying for.

Americans got it wrong - thought that Ukraine would fold in two weeks, so we shouldn’t give them weapons that will end up in Russian hands. "I don't need a ride, I need ammo!"

Dictators lie about what they did, but they are always telling us what they are GOING to do, accurately (see Mein Kampf).

One of Putin’s first acts - restoring Soviet anthem. It’s a symbol, but dictators need symbols. He remained reserved about his plans, because he wasn’t ready to move on them. Kasparov knew what he was going to do if ever given the chance, and he’s gotten it.

Skyrocketing oil prices gave Russian people a taste of “normal life.” McDonald’s, etc. It MUST be a democracy, right?

The parallels between 2014 Russia (Sochi Olympics) and 1936 Germany (Berlin Olympics) were strong. And people overlooked these rising problems because business is business, and we ignore the lessons of history. 20 months after 1936 games, Hitler annexed Austria. 20 DAYS after Sochi, Putin annexed Crimea.

Weakness from Obama and red lines. (I couldn't hear him, but I heard the sarcasm when he said sanctions.) Merkel said we can’t get off German gas, she had 16 years. Turns out they could get off Russian gas in 10 days months. Weakness of western leaders emboldened Putin.

Putin has an army, money, and nukes, yes. But let’s go back to 1941. Great things happen due to leadership or lack thereof.

January 1943, Casablanca conference, set the goal of “unconditional surrender,” which took political will.

The challenge of Stalin taking over West Berlin. For 11 months, allied leadership defeated him. I am a Berliner. Tear down this wall. Leadership moments. How can you expect a wall to come down that’s been here so long? Bold leaders push it.

Now, when people look at America, they don’t know what it is. We used to have a consistent policy approach when it came to the Cold War. We are still a factor, but it depends on who is in the White House.

The aid we provide is much less than Ukraine needs, but much more than Putin expects.

Tucker Carlson is Russian propaganda - is he parroting them, or are they parroting him?

Our fear of China sounds exactly like our concern about a rising Japan in the 80s. Yet for all we fear China, they couldn’t come up with a decent vax, we did.

The remedy to these problems is Freedom and the creativity that comes with it is the remedy to these problems.

What has surprised him? The volume of the genocidal crimes committed in Ukraine, and the limited reaction to it. And how many Russians accept it. They don’t WANT to know the alternative (true) viewpoint. It’s a shield that protects their conscience.

Russian message now is that they have to deplete the Ukrainian forces, fight to the last Ukrainian. There’s already a quarter million dead soldiers, total. Went from 60,000 artillery rounds fired a day to 15-20k, though.

Re the warnings that the West is sleepwalking into WWIII - we are already in WWIII, Putin already decided that Putin already started it. This was never about Ukraine, which he doesn’t recognize as a true independent nation. It was an attack on the rest of the world, governed by treaties, agreements, and the rule of law. It’s about BEING the law, via might makes right. Indeed, some Russians thought WWIII was the Cold War, which they lost. This is revenge for the Cold War. his is WWIV. And we were sleepwalking, BEFORE this war.

Dictator's don't play He’s not playing chess. Everything is on the board, there is no more information. He’s playing Poker, with bluffing, and watching your opponents fold on your bluff time and again. He thought that the free world would fold, and he would have been right, but for Ukrainian leadership and courage.

Re: taking back Ukraine, is it an attack on Russian soil? We’re back to poker, and probabilities about the risk of escalation. Dictators move to take advantage of perceived weakness. Cold War Calculation, He thought he could get away with it. Oh, and when you say it’s not a bluff…it’s a bluff. All other dictators are watching this. "If Kyiv had fallen in 4 days, Taiwan would already be gone". Ukraine affects Taiwan’s fate. Ukraine’s victory would make dictators tremble, its loss will do the opposite.  The winds of freedom are blowing to Iran, it even inspires the Iranian revolution - “I wish Russian men had the courage of Iranian women.”

He wants to restore our values,reparations to be paid, and war criminals brought to justice. And as long as Putin is in power, the war won’t end. Empires like that must expand, if they retreat, they collapse. War is the only justification for him remaining in power. The liberation of Ukraine is the first step to liberating Russia - true Russian patriots should be doing all the can to help Ukraine win.

How will it end and how is Ukriane succeeding? Freedom wins. He’s an optimist by nature, history doesn’t end. We know that evil doesn’t die. It may be dormant, but when we become complacent, it rises up. Ukraine wins because they know what they are fighting for, they are creative. He believes it ends this year (optimist), because attrition plays to Putin’s hands. We don’t want this war to be an issue in our presidential campaign. Victory for Ukraine is victory for Russia.

How and why does Putin leave (bullet, coup)? He’d rather not speculate, instead talk about what history shows us. Weakness, losing, is when he leaves. If this goes badly for Putin ... Revolution...Who cares? ... "I don't care. Ukraine wins." 100,000 angry men will be coming home with weapons.

Big difference between Russia and Ukraine: Russia is still an imperial mindset (comes with conquest, expansion). Ukraine has shifted to a statehood view. Russia has to make that shift.

The only way to wake up Russian society is a decisive military defeat. The Russian public needs to understand that the age of Russian empire is over. There are parts of Russia that will break away. If it makes the transition from empire to national state, it will be smaller. We don’t know the outcome of the collapse of the Russian empire exactly. We don’t know how and when it will end, but it will end.

He will fall because his powers will fail. Dictators need a myth, and a loss shatters that myth (loss of Crimea would do that). Putin's power will evaporate ... Crimea was his Symbol ... Ukraine taking Crimea will end his regime.

Will leadership go along with him if he wants to use nukes? What would a mafia do? Dying for and with him is not what they’re interested in.

Interesting question to him: What is a downside of being intelligent? Frustration. What seems obvious to him, why don’t others see it? He also knows the limits of his skills, he knows what he’s good at and what he’s bad at.

Do you believe Ukraine can win without sustained western support, NO!!! and will we support them long and strong enough? No, they need our support across the board. But they really don’t need that much. Most of our aid is weapons sitting in storage. They just need what we have in stock. It is not a charitable contribution - THIS is the war that NATO has been preparing for since 1949.  The planned battlefield was the Rhine, now it’s the Dnipro. The principles are the same, Ukraine is doing what NATO was built for. Imagine, we can end the Russian problem by supplying Ukraine with our weapons. American weapons fighting Russia without American Blood.   It’s crazy that it’s even a debate. It’s the greatest bargain imaginable.

This is our war. Putin is fighting us. He is fighting the world we live in, the world of the rule of law and norms that has made us successful and prosperous.

—————
Lots to digest. Really interesting stuff from a voice who has been sounding the alarm on Putin’s plans for over 20 years.

Damn!!!  Kasparov is a smart mo fo!!! Even a bigger brain than Brad.  (After I reflected on this, is it because he believes the same things I do? No.) 

In addition to being the #1 chess player in the world for over 20 years, the man has an encyclopedic knowledge of dates and history.  He has been warning about Putin for 20 years.  And, he must read Surly, 'cause he echoed a lot of what we read here every day.  Sorry Brisket.

Great summary. I didn't start taking notes until ... I have added a few comments to Briskets.  (I asked, nothing was recorded, and no transcripts coming).

Very powerful words, thought provoking, and entertaining. Sharp dressed man.

Small entourage. (1,3,2) 

Edited February 8, 2023 by PTINS
typo. text.

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3 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Interesting question to him: What is a downside of being intelligent? Frustration. What seems obvious to him, why don’t others see it? He also knows the limits of his skills, he knows what he’s good at and what he’s bad at.

@Sawbonz

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9 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:

Someone smarter than me, kindly explain who the fuck Gazprom is going to recruit for their new private army? Or more specifically, what pool are they going to draw from? Wagner has had private mercenaries for awhile, and now convicts. The Russian Army soldiers aren't going anywhere any time soon, they've all been their equivalent of Stop-Loss'd in the army, and that's if they weren't all in Ukraine already without a ride home. Hundreds of thousands of conscripts, with allegedly hundreds of thousands more are on the way to join the Russian Army. The prisons are empty. Where the fuck are these new soldiers coming from, exactly? At best it would be rearranging the deck chairs on the titanic. What am I missing?

Almost every adult Russian male has gone through some type of military training. As the economy goes to shit, that’s your pool right there. And if Gazprom is operating this, then it’s basically the biggest source of state revenue that can be churned right into the fight rather than having to have the MoD funnel funds to Prigozhin then back. And as mentioned, sanctions have not bitten quite as hard at the moment on Gazprom and they have a lot of infrastructure in place to take on a challenging bureaucratic and logistical task. 

 

Why use a PMC? Well, the Russian MoD has to make up casualty statistics, a PMC doesn’t. The Russian state has to make up a budget, a PMC doesn’t. A dead soldier’s mother has to be told something when she shows up at the base, but where do you go to get answers from a PMC that doesn’t exist? The Russian state has to pretend to have recruitment and service standards, a PMC does not. The Russian state has to deny committing war crimes but a PMC does not. 
 

Here’s a tweet (warning- Vatnik account) about Prigozhin doing a ride-along in a Fencer that bombed Ukraine. So we’ve got two choices— one, the Russian state gave the keys to an attack aircraft and missiles to a questionably loyal company led by someone who has quarrels with the MoD. The second option is that for all practical purposes, Wagner is an arm of the Russian security apparatus.