Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[cactusflinthead 27,598]

 

[KYHorn 17,048]

 

 

[KYHorn 17,048]

Feels like we've seen a lot more precision artillery recently.

Edited February 11, 2023 by KYHorn

[956 Worldwide 34,714]

11 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

 

 About to drop a grenade on them at the end. Nice.

Man, the Slovak coalition government collapsed and they’re holding early elections this September. Heger is a caretaker and a super solid person but he ain’t shoving SHIT through the constitutional amendment process. 

[KYHorn 17,048]

 

Edited February 11, 2023 by KYHorn

[Gengs1 2,583]

Ukraine meme war on another level, they are really getting great at it 

[956 Worldwide 34,714]

2 hours ago, Captainant said:

Argentina has some very strange immigration patterns when you cross reference war activity with it

Not even close to the most bizarre Russia-Argentina story. That belongs to the Russian Embassy cocaine smuggling case that got nearly tied up with no diplomats going to jail. Some loose access controls at that compound, I guess. 
 

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/20/four-jailed-for-trying-to-smuggle-cocaine-through-russias-argentine-embassy

Edited February 11, 2023 by 956 Worldwide

[The Dog 44,045]

Good morning! It’s HIMARS o’clock!

 

[atomheartbevo 89,661]

31 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

Feels like we've seen a lot more precision artillery recently

Yep, feels like we are seeing a lot more extremely accurate artillery fire.

I'm sure some OSINT folks are tracking this stuff with spreadsheets, but feels like we've seen a lot more Russian dead in the past week or so.

Also, Ukraine using drones to drop CS grenades to smoke them out of bunkers and then dropping a grenade on them when they come out.

[SquishMitten 10,406]

17 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

I wish we could all agree not to use nukes and have those lying fuckers experience just one 24 hour day of NATO war for real’s.

You think they’d last a full 24 hours against the whole of NATO? 

[The Dog 44,045]

 

[SquishMitten 10,406]

45 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

 

Holy shit. They are spittin some lead there! 

[KYHorn 17,048]

5 minutes ago, SquishMitten said:

Holy shit. They are spittin some lead there! 

Looks like the hordes were hungry.

[atomheartbevo 89,661]

Wagner shifting resources elsewhere for a bit?

 

[Parliament 14,258]

Are we allowed to send our SF guys there and kill them?

[Scheiss Meister 8,407]

32 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Are we allowed to send our SF guys there and kill them?

They have my permission.

[Schulz2.0 28,951]

 

 

[956 Worldwide 34,714]

These are Good Tweets. I really appreciate the atmospherics and details of all the protocol and relationships. 
 

 

[The Dog 44,045]

If Ukraine takes Melitopol then Crimea and Kherson are cut off and all Russians there will be trapped. It effectively ends the war.

Thats why everyone questions all of the resources being sent to Bakhmut - Russia needs those troops to defend and prevent this.

[Brisketexan 105,134]

If Ukraine takes Melitopol then Crimea and Kherson are cut off and all Russians there will be trapped. It effectively ends the war.
Thats why everyone questions all of the resources being sent to Bakhmut - Russia needs those troops to defend and prevent this.

If the Ukrainians can pull that off, great…but they need to not let too many of the Russians in Crimea retreat via surrender. They need to kill them. Most of them.
Russia needs to be left unable to wage offensive war for a generation.

[atomheartbevo 89,661]

30 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Thats why everyone questions all of the resources being sent to Bakhmut - Russia needs those troops to defend and prevent this.

That's exactly why Bakhmut has bugged me in regard to the Russians throwing everything at it, including the kitchen sink - if Ukraine got a breakthrough around Melitopol or down into Kherson, the Russians would struggle moving troops from Bakhmut to those areas, because they'd be putting those troops under Ukrainian artillery at some point in trying to get them down there (or taking a crazy-long way around through Crimea).

But if we just assume that the Russians are dumbasses and can't actually plan anything out strategically, it makes sense.

[The Dog 44,045]

52 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

If the Ukrainians can pull that off, great…but they need to not let too many of the Russians in Crimea retreat via surrender. They need to kill them. Most of them.
Russia needs to be left unable to wage offensive war for a generation.

If they get to the coast then the Kerch bridge will be under HIMARS control.

Ivan won’t be able to retreat anywhere.

You may get your wish.

[Post Oak 20,213]

1 hour ago, The Dog said:

If Ukraine takes Melitopol then Crimea and Kherson are cut off and all Russians there will be trapped. It effectively ends the war.

Thats why everyone questions all of the resources being sent to Bakhmut - Russia needs those troops to defend and prevent this.

I wish I believed this was true but I don't.

Putin will continue to throw bodies at Ukraine because

1. He doesn't care about their lives.

2. He can't lose and survive. 

I'm reminded of Napoleon.

You cannot stop me; I spend thirty thousand men a month.

I hope you're right and I'm wrong.

[Gatorubet 30,238]

4 hours ago, Orange&White said:

That seems strange. Is Simonyan laying the groundwork for a withdrawal/defeat?

If every time those assholes said, “We are fighting all of NATO” I took a shot, I’d be drunk at the end of every show.

Essentially, Russia-Aggy is saying they would’ve won if the referees had not interfered.   They are establishing the party line on the approved excuse. 

The next message will be that next year after all the new recruits (mobilized) arrive, they will win the world domination championship. Again, if the referees don’t cheat them.. 

[Gatorubet 30,238]

3 hours ago, SquishMitten said:

You think they’d last a full 24 hours against the whole of NATO? 

No. But but after radar and air defense has been crushed, there is no good reason to deny the pilots many enjoyable hours of Iraq Highway of death type runs. 

[Chad Fuck 17,680]

Quote

14 hours ago

Source

2 Russian Su-24M bombers dropped 4 bombs at Snake island overnight, 3 Onyx missiles were launched at Odesa region shore at the same time

Snake Island is a name I haven't heard in a while...

[cactusflinthead 27,598]

They dig 16 holes a day in the cemetery.… They bury them day and night,” said Andrei, a Bakuskaya resident whose last name RFE/RL has withheld. “There was nowhere to bury them [in the village or neighboring areas], so the Wagner [fighters] were given a separate cemetery.”

An RFE/RL analysis done by cross-checking the names and birth dates of the deceased with online court databases also found that an overwhelming majority of those buried in the cemetery had been convicted of violent crimes.

https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-wagner-mercenaries-special-cemeteries-growing-ukraine-deaths/32266836.html

Radio Free Europe 

[Gatorubet 30,238]

54 minutes ago, Chad Fuck said:

Snake Island is a name I haven't heard in a while...

What air defense doing?

[KYHorn 17,048]

 

 

[atomheartbevo 89,661]

 

[KYHorn 17,048]

 

 

[atomheartbevo 89,661]

 

[KYHorn 17,048]

 

[atomheartbevo 89,661]

 

[atomheartbevo 89,661]

Logistics:

Also, the 10 million Americans ready to sign up for Wagner

 

[atomheartbevo 89,661]

[atomheartbevo 89,661]

Wow - this is over the 9th and 10th, from the OSINT folks, just visual confirmations (Ukraine estimates are higher)

From the 8th:

Yesterday:

Nice:

[BamaATL 16,593]

12 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I was unfamiliar with Emma Ashford prior to this, apparently she is involved with several think tanks in DC and Georgetown faculty.  She is dumber than a sack of hammers.  

[Gengs1 2,583]

22 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

I was unfamiliar with Emma Ashford prior to this, apparently she is involved with several think tanks in DC and Georgetown faculty.  She is dumber than a sack of hammers.  

All this dumb talk about escalations, so Russia can do anything they want and if USA supports Ukraine they are escalating the situation, who comes up with this dumb shit. So what; what Russian gonna do about it?

[BamaATL 16,593]

2 minutes ago, Gengs1 said:

All this dumb talk about escalations, so Russia can do anything they want and if USA supports Ukraine they are escalating the situation, who comes up with this dumb shit. So what; what Russian gonna do about it?

That is a fair point and one I agree with.  The part that's beyond fucking stupid is that we sent them GPS precision guided munitions.  Last I checked, Ukraine doesn't have their own satellite constellation.  How the fuck did you think they were using these?  

 

[TwiceHorn 31,464]

18 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

That is a fair point and one I agree with.  The part that's beyond fucking stupid is that we sent them GPS precision guided munitions.  Last I checked, Ukraine doesn't have their own satellite constellation.  How the fuck did you think they were using these?  

 

They don't need their own GPS constellation.  Russian jamming is not 100% effective and GPS weapons are designed to operate in a degraded environment.

Edited February 12, 2023 by TwiceHorn

[atomheartbevo 89,661]

32 minutes ago, Gengs1 said:

All this dumb talk about escalations, so Russia can do anything they want and if USA supports Ukraine they are escalating the situation, who comes up with this dumb shit. So what; what Russian gonna do about it?

Russia won't escalate shit.  Hell, Russia officially and openly blamed England for blowing up the Nordstream pipeline.

For some strange reason, Russia didn't consider another country blowing up its property in international waters important enough to act militarily on it.

[The Dog 44,045]

8 hours ago, Post Oak said:

I wish I believed this was true but I don't.

Putin will continue to throw bodies at Ukraine because

1. He doesn't care about their lives.

2. He can't lose and survive. 

I'm reminded of Napoleon.

You cannot stop me; I spend thirty thousand men a month.

I hope you're right and I'm wrong.

Here's how I see this ending:

If the Ukrainians are able to get to Melitopol they will be able to completely isolate the Russian forces that are left in the Kherson region and in Crimea. Since the Kerch bridge is now in HIMARS range they can no longer supply both their troops and their civilians in those areas. They will be trapped with no hope of supply or reinforcement. Ivan will either surrender, be slaughtered, or starve. In all cases both the Kherson region and Crimea will be back with Ukraine. Likely they will also retake Mariupol as it's right there. This gives Ukraine all of their Black Sea territory back along with Crimea.

That leaves the Donbas region, which is at best a stalemate. 

At this point I expect there to be enormous international pressure on both Russia and Ukraine to cease hostilities with Russia having minimal gains in the Donbas and Ukraine retaking all of the Black Sea ports and Crimea.

This will be spun as a "win" at home by Russia as they "secured the Donbas" and they will simply ignore the massive loss of Crimea. 

If this occurs then it's not about whether or not Russia loses but how much they want to lose. They can either consolidate their gains in the east or get routed once the Ukrainian forces that liberated the south and Crimea are brought to bear in the Donbas.

That's what I meant by "it ends the war." If Ukraine is able to do this then it's not a question of it being over but how Russia wants it to end and how much of a loss they are willing to take.

Keep in mind none of this has occurred yet. But if it does that is my amateur take.

[atomheartbevo 89,661]

33 minutes ago, The Dog said:

This will be spun as a "win" at home by Russia as they "secured the Donbas" and they will simply ignore the massive loss of Crimea. 

They can't.  It's a warm water port for Russia.  It's their only warm water port.  And it controls a shitload of natural resources (oil and gas). But mainly it's their only warm water port.

And it's a huge psychological blow - this ain't driving the Russians back from Kyiv, or driving them out of Kharkiv or Kherson.

I don't think they'll do nukes, but I would see them giving up Donbas before they gave up Crimea.

[MillerEP 30,455]

[The Dog 44,045]

19 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

They can't.  It's a warm water port for Russia.  It's their only warm water port.  And it controls a shitload of natural resources (oil and gas). But mainly it's their only warm water port.

And it's a huge psychological blow - this ain't driving the Russians back from Kyiv, or driving them out of Kharkiv or Kherson.

I don't think they'll do nukes, but I would see them giving up Donbas before they gave up Crimea.

they have already made their choice. 

Donbas > Crimea

[MillerEP 30,455]

I want you to know. Pete Reed, the American paramedic who died in Bakhmut while helping civilians, didn't die from another mortar fire or anything. His civilian white ambulance was shot at with an ATGM. Photo evidence at the link below

[cactusflinthead 27,598]

^saw him fall last week

I don't know why that one hit harder.

Something about that guy 

[MissingInAction 25,070]

Russians are fucking cocksuckers.

 

[atomheartbevo 89,661]

2 hours ago, The Dog said:

they have already made their choice. 

Donbas > Crimea

Crimea is more important to the national security of Russia.  Without a warm water port, they are in trouble part of the year, especially given how much their ships break down.  And while they will eventually get a warm water port in the north, it'll take more warming/ice melting before that happens.