Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[atomheartbevo 89777]

Edited February 28, 2023 by atomheartbevo

[atomheartbevo 89777]

Above is interesting, basically Russia does have a finite amount of people to draw from, which we've all talked about (and it's telling that Wagner had to go slumming in the prisons).  Same with materials, and like @The Dog mentioned, some vehicles were manufactured in Ukraine, and Russia no longer has access to that or the institutional knowledge.  Last year, I looked up a bunch of their systems they are using with their front-line units, and some had not rolled off the assembly line in decades, and there's no way they can just restart those assembly lines or even get the presses, etc. up and running to make spare parts.  And it's questionable what they have for spares, given that those would have sold well on the black market to other countries.

Meanwhile, US and EU officials are saying they aren't finding corruption in Ukraine:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/02/27/ukraine-war-zelensky-fighting-corruption/

 

[BamaATL 16593]

7 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Above is interesting, basically Russia does have a finite amount of people to draw from, which we've all talked about (and it's telling that Wagner had to go slumming in the prisons).  Same with materials, and like @The Dog mentioned, some vehicles were manufactured in Ukraine, and Russia no longer has access to that or the institutional knowledge.  Last year, I looked up a bunch of their systems they are using with their front-line units, and some had not rolled off the assembly line in decades, and there's no way they can just restart those assembly lines or even get the presses, etc. up and running to make spare parts.  And it's questionable what they have for spares, given that those would have sold well on the black market to other countries.

Meanwhile, US and EU officials are saying they aren't finding corruption in Ukraine:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/02/27/ukraine-war-zelensky-fighting-corruption/

 

Along these lines I was doing some math, and this is completely unsustainable for them just on numbers alone.  If we are to believe they have 350k in country, I'd guess that only about half that would be on the front, which is currently about 600 miles.  If you are to consider their daily casualty rate is 700 per day (includes WIA and KIA), which may well be light, they will depleted in 250 days.  Not in areas, entirely at the front.  Of course the Ukrainians are saying KIA is 700 a day, so it may well be quicker than that.  Obviously, without a massive mobilization, their hopes rest on but sips of air, they are quite literally drowning in their own blood.  At the current rate, in 90 days, they are ripe for the picking.  I am not a patient man generally, and would love to see this happen quicker, but this does bode well.  

[Doc Sam Beckett 5797]

9 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

 Russia always does better when treated with a firm hand and clear eyes. 

[Grade of D as in David 13253]

38 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Hat Trick in the minefield, stupid fuckers

3rd time in the same minefield in Vuldehar in last three days I think.  

I mean that is one way to clear my field, not the best but a way.

[atomheartbevo 89777]

14 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Along these lines I was doing some math, and this is completely unsustainable for them just on numbers alone.  If we are to believe they have 350k in country, I'd guess that only about half that would be on the front, which is currently about 600 miles.  If you are to consider their daily casualty rate is 700 per day (includes WIA and KIA), which may well be light, they will depleted in 250 days.  Not in areas, entirely at the front.  Of course the Ukrainians are saying KIA is 700 a day, so it may well be quicker than that.  Obviously, without a massive mobilization, their hopes rest on but sips of air, they are quite literally drowning in their own blood.  At the current rate, in 90 days, they are ripe for the picking.  I am not a patient man generally, and would love to see this happen quicker, but this does bode well.  

Define the half that would be on the front, because I think in terms of actual infantry that can hold ground, I don't see how they could have that many and only have 175K supporting them, but it's Russia, so they may have skimped on a lot of stuff in between the infantry and REMFs.

Regardless, even if the daily rate is both 700 WIA/KIA, there's no way they are returning a lot of those WIA to the front lines - we've seen how shit their medical care is for their soldiers.  More than a few of those WIA are dying, and I'd wager that many of the rest are crippled for good, either because they didn't get proper medical care on time, or because they didn't get proper medical care at all.

And when you see videos like the minefield video, those guys are not commanded by competent or motivated leadership - they are probably being commanded at the end of a bayonet or sidearm, because it's clear they are not shepherding their resources/troops for any large-scale offensives, they are just throwing shit around and hoping something sticks (and even if those guys made it through those attacks, minefields, etc., there's no way there are reserve forces ready to exploit a breakthrough).

4 minutes ago, Grade of D as in David said:

I mean that is one way to clear my field, not the best but a way.

Great if you are China.  Not so great if you have a limited pool of resources to draw from.

[Bevo 13596]

12 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Great if you are China.  Not so great if you have a limited pool of resources to draw from.

I thought we were suppose to refrain from using the C-word.

[BamaATL 16593]

10 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Define the half that would be on the front, because I think in terms of actual infantry that can hold ground, I don't see how they could have that many and only have 175K supporting them, but it's Russia, so they may have skimped on a lot of stuff in between the infantry and REMFs.

Regardless, even if the daily rate is both 700 WIA/KIA, there's no way they are returning a lot of those WIA to the front lines - we've seen how shit their medical care is for their soldiers.  More than a few of those WIA are dying, and I'd wager that many of the rest are crippled for good, either because they didn't get proper medical care on time, or because they didn't get proper medical care at all.

And when you see videos like the minefield video, those guys are not commanded by competent or motivated leadership - they are probably being commanded at the end of a bayonet or sidearm, because it's clear they are not shepherding their resources/troops for any large-scale offensives, they are just throwing shit around and hoping something sticks (and even if those guys made it through those attacks, minefields, etc., there's no way there are reserve forces ready to exploit a breakthrough).

Great if you are China.  Not so great if you have a limited pool of resources to draw from.

I beginning to think that if you get thru conscript training in Russia, your graduation gift is an, "i'm with stupid" t shirt.  If you go to do advanced training, you get the hat too.  

It's hard to understand Russian troop distribution as it reflects to numbers.  Seems like the most of them are just some guys they have given guns.  Obviously there are specialty units and some training for things like artillery and tankers (although there can't be many of these guys left).  I'm betting their logistics is woefully understaffed, but that's a guess.  I mean 1:1 ratio of logistics is woeful, but given how shitty they seem to be organized, my bet would be its not wrong.  

[SL Xpress 7518]

26 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

I remember when General MacArthur got fired by Truman for doing the same in Korea.

You're the second person who has said he got fired for wanting to drop bombs on Korea.

He wanted to drop bombs on China, to destroy their supply lines, kill their reinforcements to the battle field, and to deter them from supporting North Korean forces. 

After the Inchon amphibious assault, US forces basically threw back North Korean soldiers and were on the verge of a complete military conquest of the Korean peninsula. China had given warnings this was unacceptable, but they were pretty much dismissed as idle threats. The Chinese launched a counteroffensive in late October/early November that was ineffective, then in late November 120,000 Chinese troops snuck across the border undetected and inflicted a huge defeat on the heavily outnumbered UN/US troops in the Chosin reservoir. If anyone reading this is someone unfamiliar with what US soldiers endured breaking out of that encirclement in extreme weather conditions to reach evacuation in the port of Hungnam, I hope you educate yourself. It's one of the bravest military operations IMO undergone in US history. If you (the general you) are familiar, that makes me happy, because it's not called The Forgotten War for nothing. 

In any case. Barry Goldwater's nuclear rhetoric was noteworthy enough it inspired what many consider the most effective and damning TV political ad ever produced, the so called Daisy ad. 

 

Of course, LBJ would have to choose not to run for president in 1968 because he was too toxic due to the US involvement in Vietnam. It reminds me a little of Woodrow Wilson campaigning on keeping us out of war, or FDR emphasizing the importance of keeping US troops out of the global conflict that had emerged in 1940.

In any case, there were substantial conversations around first strike capabilities in the event of war with the Soviet Union, which is the chief contributor to the nuclear arms race by both sides (see Dr. Strangelove the movie). To say that the US has never engaged in rhetoric surrounding the use of nuclear weapons is false, and as others have pointed out, it's commonly trotted out by keyboard warriors who don't have a great concept of what is actually at stake. But in terms of prominent officials, other than Reagan's poorly timed joke, "we begin bombing in 5 minutes" on an open mic, I don't recall any references to it by officials in positions of significant power for the last 60 years. 

What Putin and Russia have done in terms of threatening the use of nuclear weapons over the course of the Ukrainian War has been unprecedented and extraordinarily dangerous. But IMO it would be even more dangerous to allow their rhetoric to change our behavior substantially, because then they know they can always get their way in seeking territorial conquest simply by issuing nuclear threats, whether they're bluffing or not.  

[atomheartbevo 89777]

14 minutes ago, Bevo said:

I thought we were suppose to refrain from using the C-word.

Okay, we'll use India.  They've got 152 million men between the ages of 20-34, so that's a hefty pool to draw from (larger than the entire population of Russia).

Russia has 12 million to draw from within that age range.  And up to 700,000 men left the country (probably more through unofficial channels), and 1.1 million are on active duty of some kind (police, army, navy, air force, border, etc.). 

Russia has said that being in college is no longer an excuse, so that's a pool of 4 million young men to draw from. (edit: maybe not 4 million if a chunk of those 700,000 were from that group).

But they couldn't even competently pull off a mobilization of 300,000 last fall....so...

Edit: And if they had to raise conscription/mobilization ages up into the 40s and 50s, then something is fucked up with their stats/demographics.

Edited February 28, 2023 by atomheartbevo

[SL Xpress 7518]

Update from Bakhmut, by Kiyanh as translated by Dmitri.

He goes on a spirited rant about people working with Russians in corrupt ways back in Kyiv. I've tried to follow up on it, but the details are a little sketchy. If anyone wants to weigh in regarding Leonid Ashkenazy or the Premier Palace (which according to some reports I found was nationalized by Ukraine in December). Anyway, he seems bitter in this video. 

I've read that the reports of a successful counter offensive by Ukraine are somewhat spurious, and that some withdrawal from Bakhmut is already taking place. But I cannot tell you how many times I've read that either the fall of Bakhmut has occurred, or that it's imminent and yet here we are. My biggest hopes are not for Bakhmut itself, but for the brave men who have defended it, both those living and those who have already given their lives. If it is to fall, I hope as much of the defensive force as possible is able to retreat safely. 

 

[BamaATL 16593]

3 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Okay, we'll use India.  They've got 152 million men between the ages of 20-34, so that's a hefty pool to draw from (larger than the entire population of Russia).

Russia has 12 million to draw from within that age range.  And up to 700,000 men left (probably more through unofficial channels), and 1.1 million are on active duty of some kind (police, army, navy, air force, border, etc.). 

Russia has said that being in college is no longer an excuse, so that's a pool of 4 million young men to draw from. (edit: maybe not 4 million if a chunk of those 700,000 were from that group).

But they couldn't even competently pull off a mobilization of 300,000 last fall....so...

You also have to wonder how many of the portion is in the Moscow area (the college kids), because even though they now are saying that isn't a reason to be deferred/not drafted, it's clear that Putin doesn't want casualties to start pouring into that region for fear of being destabilized.  If that were to hold true, that further reduces the pool he could mobilize. 

It's also clear that like much of the south post 1865, there are going to be many rural places in Russia with no men at all for a generation.  Unrelated tangent, and not to get off subject, but that certainly created massive problems here 150 years ago, I can't imagine it will go well there either.  

[BamaATL 16593]

Best news of the day

 

[atomheartbevo 89777]

4 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

To say that the US has never engaged in rhetoric surrounding the use of nuclear weapons is false,

We've engaged in it, but it wasn't..."casual" and there was no chance of it happening - while MacArthur, Goldwater, etc., really did think it was the only option (regardless of how wrong they were), they were not in a position to make it happen, since MacArthur had quite a few people above him who would have to sign off on it (and they said no) and Goldwater was not in power.

Contrast that with Russia trotting out government spokespeople on government TV, on government TV shows, who speak for Putin (who has the sole authority to launch) who are just casually talking about nuking European capitols, and what would happen if they dropped a nuke off the coast of England, etc., and they are doing it in a war that they started, and that was meant to take land and people away from another country and make it their own, and they've been doing it since the spring of last year.

4 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

What Putin and Russia have done in terms of threatening the use of nuclear weapons over the course of the Ukrainian War has been unprecedented and extraordinarily dangerous. But IMO it would be even more dangerous to allow their rhetoric to change our behavior substantially, because then they know they can always get their way in seeking territorial conquest simply by issuing nuclear threats, whether they're bluffing or not.  

Putin is absolutely bluffing.  Anytime a gambler claims they aren't bluffing....

He's had multiple instances where, if he was going to drop a nuke, he should have/would have already done so.

[SL Xpress 7518]

10 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Best news of the day

 

Do we know how many battalions there will be? I can't imagine anyone has access to exact numbers, but I'm curious how many battalions can be created with the 50 Marders/50 CV90s/109 Bradleys, assuming they all show up in a timely manner. 

[Schulz2.0 29006]

34 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

Update from Bakhmut, by Kiyanh as translated by Dmitri.

He goes on a spirited rant about people working with Russians in corrupt ways back in Kyiv. I've tried to follow up on it, but the details are a little sketchy. If anyone wants to weigh in regarding Leonid Ashkenazy or the Premier Palace (which according to some reports I found was nationalized by Ukraine in December). Anyway, he seems bitter in this video. 

I've read that the reports of a successful counter offensive by Ukraine are somewhat spurious, and that some withdrawal from Bakhmut is already taking place. But I cannot tell you how many times I've read that either the fall of Bakhmut has occurred, or that it's imminent and yet here we are. My biggest hopes are not for Bakhmut itself, but for the brave men who have defended it, both those living and those who have already given their lives. If it is to fall, I hope as much of the defensive force as possible is able to retreat safely. 

 

The downside of filming everything... dude needs to STFU. Blasting grievances on internet videos isn't the way to get things resolved.

[Parliament 14283]

So we got a pool on the date of the first Bradley kill?   I'm hard.  Very hard.

[SL Xpress 7518]

4 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

We've engaged in it, but it wasn't..."casual" and there was no chance of it happening - while MacArthur, Goldwater, etc., really did think it was the only option (regardless of how wrong they were), they were not in a position to make it happen, since MacArthur had quite a few people above him who would have to sign off on it (and they said no) and Goldwater was not in power.

Contrast that with Russia trotting out government spokespeople on government TV, on government TV shows, who speak for Putin (who has the sole authority to launch) who are just casually talking about nuking European capitols, and what would happen if they dropped a nuke off the coast of England, etc., and they are doing it in a war that they started, and that was meant to take land and people away from another country and make it their own, and they've been doing it since the spring of last year.

Putin is absolutely bluffing.  Anytime a gambler claims they aren't bluffing....

He's had multiple instances where, if he was going to drop a nuke, he should have/would have already done so.

It's not an equivalency. I'm not suggesting that. Both of us are bringing up references from 60 years ago.

But it's not right to dismiss them the way you did, either. MacArthur was overall commander of UN troops in a full scale war on the peninsula of Korea. He was fired for his views, so obviously he didn't have final say. But if Gerasimov starts talking about the need to use nuclear weapons we wouldn't dismiss it. It would be highly alarming. IMO Gerasimov and MacArthur are very much equivalents. And while Goldwater didn't win the election, he was a respected senator from Arizona who won a major party nomination to face off against a Democratic opponent in a presidential election. That's not the same as actually winning the presidency, but he wasn't akin to an anonymous keyboard operator on the internet. He was an extremely influential politician for the rest of his career, and his views shaped the outlook of many who came after him. His impact on the US was certainly greater than any of the Russian government spokespeople you're citing. 

Again, what Russia is doing regarding their nuclear rhetoric is alarming and unprecedented. But unprecedented is not the same as none. The fact I have to go back 60 plus years is the most telling part, not how trivial or non trivial MacArthur and Goldwater's stances were. We're also being a bit unfair towards Goldwater here, since it's not like he was advocating nuclear strikes the way the Russian rhetoric is right now. He simply wasn't willing to take it off the table, and then the Democrats effectively emphasized that. 

[SL Xpress 7518]

3 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

The downside of filming everything... dude needs to STFU. Blasting grievances on internet videos isn't the way to get things resolved.

I've seen him do similar things in the past. I am in complete agreement. He's not a Dale Carnegie acolyte, I can tell you that for sure. 

[BamaATL 16593]

4 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

The downside of filming everything... dude needs to STFU. Blasting grievances on internet videos isn't the way to get things resolved.

Sorry, nope.  He's more than earned the right to speak his mind, even if misguided (which I do not know either way).  This is going to be a bitter pill to swallow, especially for those who fought as bravely as these folks have.  They watched their brothers and sisters die, be horrifically wounded, and civilians be terrorized.  

[Pescado_Rojo 19428]

34 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Best news of the day

 

Happy hunting, fellas! 

[Schulz2.0 29006]

4 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Sorry, nope.  He's more than earned the right to speak his mind, even if misguided (which I do not know either way).  This is going to be a bitter pill to swallow, especially for those who fought as bravely as these folks have.  They watched their brothers and sisters die, be horrifically wounded, and civilians be terrorized.  

Some of us were in the military. You don't put stupid shit like that on video.

[SL Xpress 7518]

1 minute ago, BamaATL said:

Sorry, nope.  He's more than earned the right to speak his mind, even if misguided (which I do not know either way).  This is going to be a bitter pill to swallow, especially for those who fought as bravely as these folks have.  They watched their brothers and sisters die, be horrifically wounded, and civilians be terrorized.  

Who knows? This is probably what it takes to clear out corruption, shining a bright light and all of that. But I have to admit I cringe a bit when he goes in that direction. That kind of rhetoric can and does produce a witch hunt effect. You say he's more than earned the right to speak his mind, and that's certainly true. But he has a large global platform that gives huge weight to his words. When it veers off the subject of what he's directly involved in, it's very difficult to determine his level of expertise. He doesn't have the time or the means to go into specifics, and so the vagueness allows anyone to fill in the blanks the way they want. 

But there's room to agree to disagree here. I'm certainly not trying to tell you what to think. This is only my perspective. I'm grateful for his updates and for Dmitri translating them. This one included. And I like his colorfulness in describing the Russian invaders. I find him very inspiring. He is who he is. 

[Brisketexan 105257]

On the Korean War mention, last year at my allergist, the old dude in front of me was wearing a well-worn jacket that said “Frozen Chosin,” with a unit designation of some sort. From the look of him, it was legit. I’m assuming his wallet is the one that says “Bad Motherfucker” on it.

[Brisketexan 105257]

Well, I went down a rabbit hole tonight, musing and listening to music. An old teacher of mine - a good and kind woman, who dedicated her life to, literally, generations of kids - died today. A year after she retired. She didn’t get to enjoy the time after retirement the way she deserved. So I listened to what the universe wanted me to. Including the one below from my playlist.

The first time I heard it, we were with a group of German visitors, here for some sort of music tour/performance/study thing. My daughter (studying German at the time) had somehow connected with them, and we had some of the kids over to our house over the holiday. So, at the end of the trip, they put on a small concert in the back room at Threadgills World HQ. A fair crowd of us locals attended, along with some of their German family members who had come to town. Some German songs, even some Texas tunes, it was fun. Then, they did their closing number. This one, Weiße Fahnen (“White Flag”), by Silbermond:

My German is shit, but I understood some at the time (I understand more now). We were all listening raptly, because it was a genuinely beautiful performance. But at the end, as the kids started the “oh, oh, oh” melody, the adults joined in, pulled handkerchiefs from their pockets, and started waving them. It was stunning, and beautiful. I remember my wife and I looking at each other, mouthing “wow.” You see the same thing the crowd on Unter den Linden looking up at the gate, waving their hands and singing along in the video.

And to see the performance in the video, in front of the Brandenburg gate that for so long was behind the Iron Curtain, and now stands as a profound symbol of freedom, was moving as hell. It didn’t hurt that when this concert happened, my son called Berlin home, and was involved in the local efforts related to the war (although he didn’t go to the concert…I’m pretty sure he was across town, chasing ass). It seemed more personal.

This war crosses generations, but it belongs most brutally to the young. The men and women fighting are mostly the ages of my kids. The youngest Ukrainians will have the traumatic scars on their psyche forever, yet they will also be among the most resilient. They are the ones who have dreams of a boundless future. And young Ukrainians are also among those most invested in a future as free people.

Some of the lyrics strike home. They tell a story of hope, and the end of a war:

It’s a cold day
in his hot heart
and a loud fire
lights the sky again
 
And he’s running for his life
his whole young life
never started the war
of his fathers
 
And everytime he falls asleep
he dreams himself far away
dreams of the silence
dreams himself away
A gentle wind blows
and the sky is wide
This war is over
the soldiers are going home
And white flags fly
and everybody is free, free, free
Tonight my friend
I dreamed of peace


Someday, this war will be over. The soldiers will go home. Peace. True peace. Lasting peace. Which can only come with victory.

We’re one helluva species. Breaks my fucking heart. And makes me burn with rage.

[SL Xpress 7518]

3 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

On the Korean War mention, last year at my allergist, the old dude in front of me was wearing a well-worn jacket that said “Frozen Chosin,” with a unit designation of some sort. From the look of him, it was legit. I’m assuming his wallet is the one that says “Bad Motherfucker” on it.

Gives me goosebumps thinking about him. What a hellscape. Thanks for sharing.

[SL Xpress 7518]

9 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Well, I went down a rabbit hole tonight, musing and listening to music. An old teacher of mine - a good and kind woman, who dedicated her life to, literally, generations of kids - died today. A year after she retired. She didn’t get to enjoy the time after retirement the way she deserved. So I listened to what the universe wanted me to. Including the one below from my playlist.

The first time I heard it, we were with a group of German visitors, here for some sort of music tour/performance/study thing. My daughter (studying German at the time) had somehow connected with them, and we had some of the kids over to our house over the holiday. So, at the end of the trip, they put on a small concert in the back room at Threadgills World HQ. A fair crowd of us locals attended, along with some of their German family members who had come to town. Some German songs, even some Texas tunes, it was fun. Then, they did their closing number. This one, Weiße Fahnen (“White Flag”), by Silbermond:
 

 

My German is shit, but I understood some at the time (I understand more now). We were all listening raptly, because it was a genuinely beautiful performance. But at the end, as the kids started the “oh, oh, oh” melody, the adults joined in, pulled handkerchiefs from their pockets, and started waving them. It was stunning, and beautiful. I remember my wife and I looking at each other, mouthing “wow.” You see the same thing the crowd on Unter den Linden looking up at the gate, waving their hands and singing along in the video.

And to see the performance in the video, in front of the Brandenburg gate that for so long was behind the Iron Curtain, and now stands as a profound symbol of freedom, was moving as hell. It didn’t hurt that when this concert happened, my son called Berlin home, and was involved in the local efforts related to the war (although he didn’t go to the concert…I’m pretty sure he was across town, chasing ass). It seemed more personal.

This war crosses generations, but it belongs most brutally to the young. The men and women fighting are mostly the ages of my kids. The youngest Ukrainians will have the traumatic scars on their psyche forever, yet they will also be among the most resilient. They are the ones who have dreams of a boundless future. And young Ukrainians are also among those most invested in a future as free people.

Some of the lyrics strike home. They tell a story of hope, and the end of a war:

It’s a cold day
in his hot heart
and a loud fire
lights the sky again
 
And he’s running for his life
his whole young life
never started the war
of his fathers
 
And everytime he falls asleep
he dreams himself far away
dreams of the silence
dreams himself away
A gentle wind blows
and the sky is wide
This war is over
the soldiers are going home
And white flags fly
and everybody is free, free, free
Tonight my friend
I dreamed of peace


Someday, this war will be over. The soldiers will go home. Peace. True peace. Lasting peace. Which can only come with victory.

We’re one helluva species. Breaks my fucking heart. And makes me burn with rage.

 

Thanks for sharing. I love that story. 

[atomheartbevo 89777]

34 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

But if Gerasimov starts talking about the need to use nuclear weapons we wouldn't dismiss it. It would be highly alarming.

Except that with the Russians, it's pretty clear they are desperately trying to rattle the West and cut off support to Ukraine.  We know Putin is fucking scared of a whole lot of things, and the idea that he'd do something that would make him an actual target for the West is crazy, because that's what would happen if nukes were dropped.  Even China told him to knock it off.

It'd be one thing if the Russian government/media mentioned nukes once and then went almost a year without bringing it up again, and the next time they brought it up, it was tied to something specific, like a red line. But when you can't go a few fucking weeks without talking about using nukes and openly fantasizing about nuking this or that European city, and the people who are talking about using nukes work for Putin and are saying this stuff with his permission, it gets old really fast, and it becomes playground talk.

34 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

Again, what Russia is doing regarding their nuclear rhetoric is alarming and unprecedented. But unprecedented is not the same as none. 

We've had almost a year of them doing this shit, and we've had multiple instances where they got their shit pushed in and if they were going to use nukes to try and stop Ukraine, they should have already done so.  

But Putin can't, because he just spent years telling everybody that Ukraine is Russia, just brothers from another mother, and that's a line even he won't cross, plus, given the comically inept state of his military and their lack of equipment, he's going to be killing as many Russian soldiers and sympathizers as he is Ukrainians.

[SL Xpress 7518]

2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Except that with the Russians, it's pretty clear they are desperately trying to rattle the West and cut off support to Ukraine.  We know Putin is fucking scared of a whole lot of things, and the idea that he'd do something that would make him an actual target for the West is crazy, because that's what would happen if nukes were dropped.  Even China told him to knock it off.

It'd be one thing if the Russian government/media mentioned nukes once and then went almost a year without bringing it up again, and the next time they brought it up, it was tied to something specific, like a red line. But when you can't go a few fucking weeks without talking about using nukes and openly fantasizing about nuking this or that European city, and the people who are talking about using nukes work for Putin and are saying this stuff with his permission, it gets old really fast, and it becomes playground talk.

We've had almost a year of them doing this shit, and we've had multiple instances where they got their shit pushed in and if they were going to use nukes to try and stop Ukraine, they should have already done so.  

But Putin can't, because he just spent years telling everybody that Ukraine is Russia, just brothers from another mother, and that's a line even he won't cross, plus, given the comically inept state of his military and their lack of equipment, he's going to be killing as many Russian soldiers and sympathizers as he is Ukrainians.

I believe you and I have different perspectives. You're not wrong, because the proof is in the pudding. Basically, you're never going to be wrong until nuclear weapons are actually utilized, and at that point we're not going to be spending a whole lot of time in serious discussions about whether you were right or wrong, because both of us are posting on a relatively obscure sports forum that has a section dedicated to current events, and in there we're discussing the Ukraine war. In other words, we don't matter, and more serious shit will be going down that makes whether you were right or wrong immaterial.

My perspective is that on a long enough time line, with enough different entities possessing nuclear weapons, with a technology that's now 80 years old, and a huge incentive in terms of ensuring sovereign integrity, with comparatively small consequences, the chances of a nuclear weapon being utilized at some point is 100%. Given that, rhetoric that seriously considers its employment increases that chance, not only by the people using the rhetoric, but by other entities who possess the means for whom the rhetoric creates a greater environment to normalize its potential use. 

So while you see all of this as bluffing that shouldn't be taken seriously, I see it as dangerous. It allows what should be unthinkable to become more thinkable, and therefore actionable. It's particularly more actionable the more desperate someone with control of nuclear weapons becomes, or the more dispersed the control of nuclear weapons that exists. That's not specifically about Putin or Russia. That's simply a general observation that also includes Putin and Russia.  

[PTINS 3481]

30 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Well, I went down a rabbit hole tonight, musing and listening to music. An old teacher of mine - a good and kind woman, who dedicated her life to, literally, generations of kids - died today. A year after she retired. She didn’t get to enjoy the time after retirement the way she deserved. So I listened to what the universe wanted me to. Including the one below from my playlist.

The first time I heard it, we were with a group of German visitors, here for some sort of music tour/performance/study thing. My daughter (studying German at the time) had somehow connected with them, and we had some of the kids over to our house over the holiday. So, at the end of the trip, they put on a small concert in the back room at Threadgills World HQ. A fair crowd of us locals attended, along with some of their German family members who had come to town. Some German songs, even some Texas tunes, it was fun. Then, they did their closing number. This one, Weiße Fahnen (“White Flag”), by Silbermond:
 

 

My German is shit, but I understood some at the time (I understand more now). We were all listening raptly, because it was a genuinely beautiful performance. But at the end, as the kids started the “oh, oh, oh” melody, the adults joined in, pulled handkerchiefs from their pockets, and started waving them. It was stunning, and beautiful. I remember my wife and I looking at each other, mouthing “wow.” You see the same thing the crowd on Unter den Linden looking up at the gate, waving their hands and singing along in the video.

And to see the performance in the video, in front of the Brandenburg gate that for so long was behind the Iron Curtain, and now stands as a profound symbol of freedom, was moving as hell. It didn’t hurt that when this concert happened, my son called Berlin home, and was involved in the local efforts related to the war (although he didn’t go to the concert…I’m pretty sure he was across town, chasing ass). It seemed more personal.

This war crosses generations, but it belongs most brutally to the young. The men and women fighting are mostly the ages of my kids. The youngest Ukrainians will have the traumatic scars on their psyche forever, yet they will also be among the most resilient. They are the ones who have dreams of a boundless future. And young Ukrainians are also among those most invested in a future as free people.

Some of the lyrics strike home. They tell a story of hope, and the end of a war:

It’s a cold day
in his hot heart
and a loud fire
lights the sky again
 
And he’s running for his life
his whole young life
never started the war
of his fathers
 
And everytime he falls asleep
he dreams himself far away
dreams of the silence
dreams himself away
A gentle wind blows
and the sky is wide
This war is over
the soldiers are going home
And white flags fly
and everybody is free, free, free
Tonight my friend
I dreamed of peace


Someday, this war will be over. The soldiers will go home. Peace. True peace. Lasting peace. Which can only come with victory.

We’re one helluva species. Breaks my fucking heart. And makes me burn with rage.

 

Brisket, you rock!!!

 

[dimyh 1874]

8 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Yada yada yada...

They are just straight-up gangster types that have an inflated sense of self-worth and importance not because they've earned it, but because people are scared of their nukes.  Putin does not understand that simple and fundamental truth.  Without the nukes, NATO would have steamrolled the Russian Army by now.

And this highlights another very important reason for why Russia can't "win" this war.

1) It legitimizes bigger countries attacking weaker neighbors just because it is part of their "sphere of influence" or "national security threat" or whatever fabricated claim they can cobble together.

2) It normalizes the use of nuclear force for offensive capabilities. Instead of strictly being a defensive deterrence, nukes would now be threatened to deter all types of resistance.

3) Which leads to the inevitable conclusion that normal defensive pacts with conventional forces will never be sufficient. Nuclear proliferation is the only means to maintain national sovereignty.

I already have enough anxiety with one N Korea in the world. I really dread what it would be like with about a dozen more springing up across the globe.

 

[atomheartbevo 89777]

1 hour ago, SL Xpress said:

My perspective is that on a long enough time line, with enough different entities possessing nuclear weapons, with a technology that's now 80 years old, and a huge incentive in terms of ensuring sovereign integrity, with comparatively small consequences, the chances of a nuclear weapon being utilized at some point is 100%.

I think it's dangerous only if Russia wins, for the reasons outlined below by dimyh - nuclear proliferation and/or countries with nukes threatening their neighbors.

If it makes you feel better, Pakistan and India have clashed numerous times at their borders, with lots dead/wounded and nobody used nukes.  India and China have recently clashed, with lots dead, and no nukes fired.  US Army Green Berets and US Marines (and some US Air Force combat controllers and pilots) killed and wounded hundreds of Russians a few years ago in Syria (even if they were Wagner) and no nukes fired.  US and Russian pilots tangled over Vietnam, the Israelis loaded nukes on their aircraft and Russians parked nukes in Egyptian harbors in 1973, no nukes, and there's plenty more instances where things got dicey but everybody realized they needed to back down.

I do think somebody will use one at some point, but I think it will be a non-state actor.  Most countries and their leaders that have nukes, have far too much too lose (hence backing down every time throughout the last 60 years), but a non-state actor hoping to cause chaos?  Perhaps injecting themselves into something like the Shiite/Sunni conflict? Or looking for revenge for some grievance? I don't know if it'll be in my lifetime, but probably in my kids', and they won't have a reason to back down.

Edit: I'd even argue whether or not the 1973 Yom Kippur war would have happened if everybody knew the Israelis actually had nukes.

1 hour ago, dimyh said:

And this highlights another very important reason for why Russia can't "win" this war.

1) It legitimizes bigger countries attacking weaker neighbors just because it is part of their "sphere of influence" or "national security threat" or whatever fabricated claim they can cobble together.

2) It normalizes the use of nuclear force for offensive capabilities. Instead of strictly being a defensive deterrence, nukes would now be threatened to deter all types of resistance.

3) Which leads to the inevitable conclusion that normal defensive pacts with conventional forces will never be sufficient. Nuclear proliferation is the only means to maintain national sovereignty.

I already have enough anxiety with one N Korea in the world. I really dread what it would be like with about a dozen more springing up across the globe.

If North Korea and Pakistan (and Iran) can put together nuclear programs, there's dozens more 2nd/3rd-world countries that can.  Most of us could name a few dozen 1st/second world countries that could easily have nukes by the end of this year.

Which, to your point, is why Russia has to lose this war.  If they are allowed to win, I have a feeling that a few more European countries will join the nuke bandwagon, and probably South Korea, maybe Japan (and Taiwan should).

Edited February 28, 2023 by atomheartbevo

[elfenix 34331]

https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/27/europe/vladimir-putin-steven-seagal-award-intl-scli/index.html

[Post Oak 20256]

6 hours ago, BamaATL said:

Best news of the day

 

 

[SL Xpress 7518]

Ukraine's commander of all Ukraine ground forces, Colonel General Syrskyi, arrived in Bakhmut. I'm sure that has to be a huge lift for the defending troops there who have to wonder what the future is going to bring, even if they're continuing to soldier on under the most challenging of circumstances.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-ground-forces-commander-visits-besieged-bakhmut-talk-strategy-boost-2023-02-27/

Spoiler

Ukraine's ground forces commander visits besieged Bakhmut to talk strategy, boost morale

By Oleksandr Kozhukhar

[1/2] Ukrainian service members ride a tank, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in the front line city of Bakhmut, Ukraine February 24, 2023. REUTERS/Alex Babenko

12

KYIV, Feb 27 (Reuters) - The commander of Ukrainian ground forces Colonel general Oleksandr Syrskyi visited besieged Bakhmut to boost morale and talk strategy with units defending the town and surrounding villages in eastern Ukraine, the military said over the weekend.

Military analysts expect that Ukraine's forces will put their "maximum effort" in coming days into defending Bakhmut, which in recent months has seen some of the bloodiest attritional fighting of Russia's year-old invasion.

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Russia has made the capture Bakhmut a priority in its strategy to take control of Ukraine's eastern Donbas industrial region.

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"(Syrskyi) listened to the unit commanders tackling urgent problems, provided assistance in solving them, and supported the servicemen," the Ground Forces said on the Telegram messaging app.

The 57-year-old commander, one of Ukraine's most experienced, has been regarded as the mastermind behind the defeat of Russian forces as they advanced on Kyiv early in the war and in the Kharkiv region in September.

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Now charged with the defence of Bakhmut, Syrskyi has made a number of trips to the town, maintaining the Kyiv's forces will hold it.

"A thoughtful system of engineering barriers, combined with a natural (hilly) landscape, has turned the area into a true impregnable fortress, at the walls of which not just a thousand of enemies had found death," Syrskyi said in early February.

Russia had made recent progress towards encircling Bakhmut, where only about 5,000 of 70,000 residents remain, but its failure to capture the town, deprived Russian President Vladimir Putin of the chance to declare a victory on Friday's first anniversary of his invasion Feb. 24.

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Over the weekend, Ukrainian forces launched a number of counter-attacks and repulsed Russian forces around the village of Yahidne, after Russia's Wagner mercenary group claimed to have captured it and the village of Berkhivka.

The Russian defence ministry said on Sunday that its forces have destroyed Ukrainian "sabotage and reconnaissance groups," including in the area of Yahidne, while Russia's TASS state agency reported that Ukraine's forces blew up a dam just north of Bakhmut.

Reuters was not able to independently verify the reports.

The fierce battles along the front lines in Ukraine's south and east, especially near Bakhmut, now consist of crawling attempts by each side to move the line, sometimes just a few metres at a time.

The weekend Ukrainian counter-attacks to the north of Bakhmut have helped to stabilise the front there, military analysts said. But Moscow has been continuously throwing in new troops and equipment.

"Russia may start attacking from three sides from Monday," Ukrainian military analyst Oleh Zhdanov said in a social media video. "Ukraine puts maximum effort into holding Bakhmut."

Putin invaded Ukraine claiming it was necessary to protect Russian sovereignty, but Ukraine and its allies in the West say it was nothing more than an unprovoked land grab.

 

Here's a pseudo slideshow presentation I found on Youtube with some video content added. Not a big fan of this particular method of getting information, because I'd prefer to just read it in an article. But it did have some information I'm not finding anywhere else, including a focus on the 17th tank brigade providing the bulk of the armor defending the city proper. According to this youtube video, they're operating T-64 tanks which have an interesting history I won't go into here. But what I can say is those are some old tanks, which the brigade commander acknowledges in print in the video, hoping for some of the newer main battle tanks to be added to his brigade. 

The video is probably filler for most of you, but for those of you like me hungering for more insight into what's going on in Bakhmut, I'd recommend checking it out:

 

[Schulz2.0 29006]

 

[JesusSweatDuck 17807]

1 hour ago, Schulz2.0 said:

 

Man, their air defenses suck

[Rimbo 26048]

1 hour ago, Schulz2.0 said:

 

[BamaATL 16593]

Tuapse fire.  Apparently, on drone downed near Moscow near Gazpom facility, air space closed in St. Petersburg.  

 

 

[956 Worldwide 34746]

Where is Russia going to use their nuclear weapon and why? 
 

- Battlefield: In the early stages of the war I could have seen it but now, what’s the target that makes sense? There’s no massed armor formations, no fist that’s driving to target. I suppose if AFU tried to liberate Crimea, that might be an enticing target but at the moment this is not a battlefield where nuclear weapons help. And, doing this means all limits to military aid from the West evaporate. 
 

- Ukrainian city: Perhaps he thinks that he can terrorize Ukraine and the west into giving up. But I don’t think so, I think it’s just as likely that doing something like this would drag NATO into, rather than out of the conflict. And Russia would have to say farewell to any of its erstwhile Allies. 
 

- Western city: LOL NO. If your goal is to keep NATO out of the war and try to wait them out due to war fatigue, this accomplishes the opposite.

The fact is that Russia realizes that nuclear weapons are only useful as a deterrent to existential threats and that’s why they pretend to be so willing to use them. They’re frustrated that they can’t play this card.

The fact is that Russia’s current strategy of grinding down Ukraine and hoping war fatigue sets in among NATO Allies is their most likely pathway to a semi-favorable settlement.  Any use of nuclear weapons will likely hinder that quest. 

[Armybrat 40872]

9 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:

Some of us were in the military. You don't put stupid shit like that on video.

Or brag in your book about killing 25 Taliban.

[atomheartbevo 89777]

43 minutes ago, JesusSweatDuck said:

Man, their air defenses suck

They use S-300s to attack land (civilian) targets in Ukraine proper.  Now maybe those are easy to produce (although I doubt it at this point), and yes they have a dual-purpose design (air defense and land targets), but I can't imagine us ever doing something like using PATRIOTs to hit apartment buildings or whatever in another country.  Seems like a waste of valuable missiles.

[Pato del Muerto 52560]

2 hours ago, SL Xpress said:

Ukraine's commander of all Ukraine ground forces, Colonel General Syrskyi, arrived in Bakhmut.

Syrski rates the Russians:  They’re Pussies!

[Armybrat 40872]

9 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

On the Korean War mention, last year at my allergist, the old dude in front of me was wearing a well-worn jacket that said “Frozen Chosin,” with a unit designation of some sort. From the look of him, it was legit. I’m assuming his wallet is the one that says “Bad Motherfucker” on it.

My brother’s Crestview neighbor sixty years ago was a “Frozen Chosin” veteran. Unfortunately he was captured by the Norks who were about to kill him, but luckily a Chinese officer put a stop to that and sent him behind the lines to a POW camp. 
“Red” said that place was a godsend compared to what other POWs endured.

The worst treatment in the Chinese camp was the morning wake-up call when the Chinese guards went through the “barracks” rousting the Americans with the buttstocks of their rifles. Red lost some of his teeth that way, along with about fifty pounds during his stay. 
He was 18 years old at the time.

After his repatriation, he met a nurse during his convalescence and married her before moving to Austin.
IIRC, Red passed away from a heart attack when he was around 50.

 

Edited February 28, 2023 by Armybrat

[atomheartbevo 89777]

22 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

. I suppose if AFU tried to liberate Crimea, that might be an enticing target but at the moment this is not a battlefield where nuclear weapons help. And, doing this means all limits to military aid from the West evaporate. 

And it would also ruin some part of Crimea, put a bunch of fallout in the air, and probably kill just as many Russian troops as Ukrainian.  It also does away with Putin's pitch to the Russian people that Crimea = Russia, because who the fuck nukes their own country?

22 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

- Ukrainian city: Perhaps he thinks that he can terrorize Ukraine and the west into giving up. But I don’t think so, I think it’s just as likely that doing something like this would drag NATO into, rather than out of the conflict. 
- Western city: LOL NO. If your goal is to keep NATO out of the war and try to wait them out due to war fatigue, this accomplishes the opposite.

Yep.  Right now, Russia is seen as a serious threat to Europe, enough of a threat to keep Ukraine armed/supplied, but not enough of a threat to want to commit NATO forces or try and oust Putin.  A nuke being used in Europe means that Russia becomes an existential threat to Europe and NATO can't sit back and wait for the next nuke to be used, and all Western intelligence services would commit themselves fully to undermining (or even killing) Putin within Russia, whether that's supplying money/resources to the opposition or bribing somebody or whatever.

22 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

And Russia would have to say farewell to any of its erstwhile Allies. 

Yep, India and China want nothing to do with the kinds of sanctions being used against Russia, and Iran knows that the gloves will fully come off in regard to Israel plus the US will probably get a piece of the action (we've killed Iranian leaders within the last decade, and we've tangled with their military in the Persian Gulf). 

22 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

The fact is that Russia realizes that nuclear weapons are only useful as a deterrent to existential threats and that’s why they pretend to be so willing to use them. They’re frustrated that they can’t play this card.

The fact is that Russia’s current strategy of grinding down Ukraine and hoping war fatigue sets in among NATO Allies is their most likely pathway to a semi-favorable settlement.  Any use of nuclear weapons will likely hinder that quest. 

All of this.  Any use of a nuke instantly sharpens European resolve against Russia, but Putin's current strategy of dragging this out does far more in terms of wearing Europe out.

[BamaATL 16593]

9 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

They use S-300s to attack land (civilian) targets in Ukraine proper.  Now maybe those are easy to produce (although I doubt it at this point), and yes they have a dual-purpose design (air defense and land targets), but I can't imagine us ever doing something like using PATRIOTs to hit apartment buildings or whatever in another country.  Seems like a waste of valuable missiles.

I suspect the reason they using these is because they are worthless for air defense against modern day weaponry.  Yes they have them deployed in that capacity and they have a lot of them, but the only thing that makes sense to me is that they have a shit ton of these and they are aware they are otherwise useless.  It's sort of like the KH missiles they are using without the warheads for ballast as decoys.  They are otherwise useless, so they are using them for that purpose.  We eventually decommission weaponry we know to be obsolete (if we can't sell it), they keep their stockpiles and use them regardless of original design intent.  I don't think they would have plans to replenish either of these stocks, so its use them or they just sit.  

[Nivek 16976]

29 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

All of this.  Any use of a nuke instantly sharpens European resolve against Russia, but Putin's current strategy of dragging this out does far more in terms of wearing Europe out.

We have been getting more used to long-term conflicts.  We are almost back to a middle ages tolerance for the timeframe.  But the casualties and broken bodies are not returning to our soil so we can tolerate it quite a bit more.   

 

 

[BamaATL 16593]

I'm guessing that Canadian training includes saying sorry immediately after blasting another tank to Mars.  Still, I'm betting the orcs get nothing like this sort of training.  

 

[atomheartbevo 89777]

5 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Still, I'm betting the orcs get nothing like this sort of training.  

Are you saying that "go ahead Sergei, run into the minefield, I'm sure it's safe by now" isn't training?

That just absolutely blows my mind that they kept sending vehicles into the same fucking mindfield multiple times.  It doesn't blow my mind like it blew their minds, I'm just in fucking awe of that.  You can't even make an aggy joke out of it.

 

Edited February 28, 2023 by atomheartbevo

[atomheartbevo 89777]