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7 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

This has been widely reported on Eastern Europe Twitter with some evidence of explosions at the airfield. But nothing concrete on the aircraft. Belarus is pretty opaque so I would not discount that it happened. 

Still waiting to see evidence of the two claimed Il-76s from the first days of the war.

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Lockheed doubling their HIMARS production from 48 to 96 units per year. They had already made plans to increase it to 60, but now they've increased it further. Made by Lockheed. Marketed by UAF.

"When you have a combat proven system that is out there and in the news - daily - then that's driving that demand," said Jennifer McManus, the vice president for operations of Lockheed's missile business.

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/lockheeds-himars-plant-gearing-up-meet-demand-after-ukraine-success-2023-02-28/

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17 minutes ago, Chad Fuck said:

Still waiting to see evidence of the two claimed Il-76s from the first days of the war.

I have it in a safe-deposit box where I keep the sex films I made with Sela Ward (she's a classy lady and insisted on 16mm and not that new-fangled digital video stuff).

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13 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

Lockheed doubling their HIMARS production from 48 to 96 units per year. They had already made plans to increase it to 60, but now they've increased it further. Made by Lockheed. Marketed by UAF.

"When you have a combat proven system that is out there and in the news - daily - then that's driving that demand," said Jennifer McManus, the vice president for operations of Lockheed's missile business.

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/lockheeds-himars-plant-gearing-up-meet-demand-after-ukraine-success-2023-02-28/

US Army is looking at converting some barrel artillery batteries to HIMARS or M270s - lots of talk at Fort Sill, Pentagon, etc., about efficiency with artillery - Ukraine is providing them more data than they ever acquired in the first Gulf War, Afghanistan, Iraq, etc. and making them look at whether they get more done with GMLRS or with barrel artillery, how is the mobility, setup, maintenance, etc.  I can't even imagine the amount of wargaming that is looking at all of this, as well as all of the drone stuff that is happening.

HIMARS is half the payload of M270s, but you can pump out HIMARS quicker (weapons package and truck chassis), and the actual weapons package itself (the missile box and control systems)  is produced faster than the HIMARS driving out of the Camden plant - the Army has other suppliers of trucks that the missile package can be mounted on, which is what the Poles are doing.

 

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4 minutes ago, 686 said:

UA artillery inside view
 

The lack of hearing protection.... What are you gonna do, though. You're fighting for survival, who needs hearing?

What are they doing with the wrench with the top of the shell at the beginning of that video?

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5 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Meloni has been pretty reliable on Ukraine, far more than anyone imagined. I think she wants to stake out her separation from Berlusconi who is just completely discredited. 

I've been pleasantly surprised. She has not wavered.  

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7 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

The lack of hearing protection.... What are you gonna do, though. You're fighting for survival, who needs hearing?

What are they doing with the wrench with the top of the shell at the beginning of that video?

That's the 3m patented ear protection system.  Well, it's just as good anyway.  

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6 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

US Army is looking at converting some barrel artillery batteries to HIMARS or M270s - lots of talk at Fort Sill, Pentagon, etc., about efficiency with artillery - Ukraine is providing them more data than they ever acquired in the first Gulf War, Afghanistan, Iraq, etc. and making them look at whether they get more done with GMLRS or with barrel artillery, how is the mobility, setup, maintenance, etc.  I can't even imagine the amount of wargaming that is looking at all of this, as well as all of the drone stuff that is happening.

HIMARS is half the payload of M270s, but you can pump out HIMARS quicker (weapons package and truck chassis), and the actual weapons package itself (the missile box and control systems)  is produced faster than the HIMARS driving out of the Camden plant - the Army has other suppliers of trucks that the missile package can be mounted on, which is what the Poles are doing.

 

It's so interesting to me to see what a difference it makes to fire at longer distances with more precision. I mean, it's completely obvious, but we've always depended on air power for those types of strikes for the most part. Everyone has always known how critical it is to be able to destroy supply chains, but this war is hammering it home. Also, I'm sure logistics officers are watching this and wargaming on their end, too. Like you're saying, drones are such a game changer. 

I have a lot of members of my family who have served in the military, but the closest one who died in combat is my great uncle, who was flying an unarmed single engine reconnaissance plane over German lines in WWII. This Ukraine war is a bat to the face in terms of how far we've come since then. And we still have more to go. Magyar was showing in one of his in depth videos that the real time feed is not good enough for a lot of what he does. He needs to digital feed from the USB after the drone returns, and then reviews all that footage to find his most constructive targets. You know that real time feed is going to keep getting better and better. It almost certainly is with what the US armed forces are using versus a lot of the off the shelf stuff Magyar is utilizing. 

I realize people are dying out there in horrific ways, including innocent civilians, however I can't help but find the whole thing fascinating from an analytical point of view as well. War is always the ultimate political statement, whenever it's conducted. 

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17 minutes ago, MissingInAction said:

Arming it?

I honestly didn't even know that was a thing. I'm amazingly ignorant when it comes to artillery and artillery systems. Thanks for the explanation. 

Edit: actually, I shouldn't be so specific. Pretty much any military system. I was in engineering on a steam ship in the Navy. We weren't firing anything at anybody down there. I can tell you all about ungrounded electrical systems, though. Weeeeeee!

Edited by SL Xpress
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14 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

The lack of hearing protection.... What are you gonna do, though. You're fighting for survival, who needs hearing?

What are they doing with the wrench with the top of the shell at the beginning of that video?

Setting the fuse, probably.  Large caliber contact fuses can be set to explode immediately upon contact, or to delay the explosion for a few milliseconds to penetrate overhead cover, then explode in the area below.  That is very useful for buildings, bunkers, and vehicles.  It can also raise hell with tunnels and caves by collapsing them.  Contact bursts in forests turn the trees into shrapnel, too, as shown in Band of Brothers when they are at Bastogne.

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45 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

Lockheed doubling their HIMARS production from 48 to 96 units per year. They had already made plans to increase it to 60, but now they've increased it further. Made by Lockheed. Marketed by UAF.

"When you have a combat proven system that is out there and in the news - daily - then that's driving that demand," said Jennifer McManus, the vice president for operations of Lockheed's missile business.

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/lockheeds-himars-plant-gearing-up-meet-demand-after-ukraine-success-2023-02-28/

They're going to produce more HIMARS than cyber trucks next year.

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3 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

Patented, huh. In the US that's a VA disability check waiting to happen for sure. 

Well, the wife gets free hearing aids at Costco whenever that time comes, so there is that.  However, the burning of dioxins seems more concerning.  On the plus side, I can utter smart ass remarks under my breath with ease.  

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2 minutes ago, Scheiss Meister said:

Setting the fuse, probably.  Large caliber contact fuses can be set to explode immediately upon contact, or to delay the explosion for a few milliseconds to penetrate overhead cover, then explode in the area below.  That is very useful for buildings, bunkers, and vehicles.  It can also raise hell with tunnels and caves by collapsing them.  Contact bursts in forests turn the trees into shrapnel, too, as shown in Band of Brothers when they are at Bastogne.

Thank you for the explanation. Very much appreciated. I know about the different types of explosions. Same principles are used in torpedos/harpoons, too. But I didn't imagine it was set by turning a wrench on a setting on the warhead. I guess I imagined it was more automated than that? No reason, other than ignorance. 

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Just now, BamaATL said:

Well, the wife gets free hearing aids at Costco whenever that time comes, so there is that.  However, the burning of dioxins seems more concerning.  On the plus side, I can utter smart ass remarks under my breath with ease.  

No joke, my stepfather served in artillery, and his hearing was so damaged that for the last few years of his life no level of hearing aid helped him much. It wrecked his cognitive abilities, too, because he ended up being so isolated. I took him personally to around 10 different hearing specialists around the country to try to get him something that would help. He was such a pleaser he'd always say they were making a huge difference, but as soon as we got somewhere with a decent amount of ambient noise, he was lost. Don't fart around with your hearing. Seriously. He led an extremely successful life, so it could be argued how much of an impact it made overall, but it severely impacted his quality of life for the last 2 years, for sure. 

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12 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

I honestly didn't even know that was a thing. I'm amazingly ignorant when it comes to artillery and artillery systems. Thanks for the explanation. 

Edit: actually, I shouldn't be so specific. Pretty much any military system. I was in engineering on a steam ship in the Navy. We weren't firing anything at anybody down there. I can tell you all about ungrounded electrical systems, though. Weeeeeee!

Apologies if my post appeared condescending.  

I'm more than 20 years removed from service, so there's a lot going on in this war I've never seen before as well.

I was a commo dog in the rear with the gear.

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1 minute ago, SL Xpress said:

Thank you for the explanation. Very much appreciated. I know about the different types of explosions. Same principles are used in torpedos/harpoons, too. But I didn't imagine it was set by turning a wrench on a setting on the warhead. I guess I imagined it was more automated than that? No reason, other than ignorance. 

From what I've read, the US and some other countries do have modern systems with fuses that can be set by the fire control computer.  Anything from an airburst 50 or more feet above the surface to deep penetration feet below the surface.  The 2S3 is a Soviet Era design, so all fuse settings are going to be manual.  It's a little more advanced than cutting a string or cloth fuse for a muzzle loading cannon, but only by degrees.

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9 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

I honestly didn't even know that was a thing. I'm amazingly ignorant when it comes to artillery and artillery systems. Thanks for the explanation. 

On another board there was an ex US artilleryman who would give breakdowns at the beginning of the war about usage. I did not know either about the different arming fuzes used.

https://dbpedia.org/page/Artillery_fuze

Or the that the wear on barrel would lead to gradual inaccuracy and eventually to complete failure.

He pointed out how sloppy the Russians were based upon videos of their artillery. They would have munitions prefuzed and scattered about which explains why they having so many smoking accidents. Thank goodness they are so stupid.

 

 

 

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Just now, MissingInAction said:

Apologies if my post appeared condescending.  

I'm more than 20 years removed from service, so there's a lot going on in this war I've never seen before as well.

I was a commo dog in the rear with the gear.

I didn't think of it as condescending even a little bit. I'm not sure I'd even be bothered if someone was. If someone is taking the time to impart information to me from their military experience, I'm going to be appreciative regardless of its tone. I don't have a lot of ego invested regarding military systems. Plenty of other subjects, though. In any case, no apology necessary. We good. 

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23 minutes ago, MissingInAction said:

Apologies if my post appeared condescending.  

I'm more than 20 years removed from service, so there's a lot going on in this war I've never seen before as well.

I was a commo dog in the rear with the gear.

Basically, all you need to know is that at one point everyone thought big boom = greatest thing ever.  What we have learned and applied is that smaller boom that is a high precision strike is more effective.  As such, we've integrated that idea into our munitions.  The mobile artillery those guys were using is an old Soviet design I think introduced in the late 60s (I think 1968), and those shells aren't the high precision stuff we use.  Basically, that's old school stuff.  Still effective though.  But my goodness, there is going to be a big need for audiologists in Ukraine.  

Oddly, it reminded me of seeing guys setting old school depth charges in the Navy, same sort of concept actually.  

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1 hour ago, SL Xpress said:

What are they doing with the wrench with the top of the shell at the beginning of that video?

Installing/setting fuses - they don't come with fuses in them, and the fuses aren't installed until right before they are fired, and it's fucking nuts how many videos there are of Russians with lots of armed shells sitting around a howitzer.  I was basically a forward observer like he mentions in the video, but that was back in the early/mid 90s and the equipment is so much better these days from what I've seen, like the difference between stuff in WWII vs Vietnam or the 80s (which, yeah, that was 30 years ago for me).

If you want kind of a walkthrough from start to finish, this is a decent video - this guy puts out better videos than most (he's dorky, but in a good way, and knows how to present this stuff).

I skipped to the part (6:30) about fuses, but the whole thing is worth a watch if you're not familiar with modern field artillery.

Edit: This is a long video (22 minutes or so), but shows you everything from start to finish with an M777 fire mission, etc.

 

Edited by atomheartbevo
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1 hour ago, BamaATL said:

Unverified rumors swirling of media blackouts in Ukraine.  Information might be sparse for the next bit, but something is up.  Plus glsdbs in action

 

Same thread shows one of our RQ-4B Global Hawks spending its entire range encircling something from the Black Sea Fleet, while a report from the account states that 5 vessels from that fleet are carrying a total of 32 Kalibrs set to volley into Ukraine over the next 24-72 hours.

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3 minutes ago, Gravy Train said:

Same thread shows one of our RQ-4B Global Hawks spending its entire range encircling something from the Black Sea Fleet, while a report from the account states that 5 vessels from that fleet are carrying a total of 32 Kalibrs set to volley into Ukraine over the next 24-72 hours.

A naval ambush would be a nice thing.  Seeing more tonnage at the bottom of the black sea, I could live with that.  

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Artillery is fascinating.  I'm reading this whole ass series of books by this guy named William Peter Grasso set in WWII, Korea, and Vietnam, and there's a goodly bit of discussion about artillery, and tanks, and close air support, from a practical, hands-on, how-it-works frame of reference.  The books are really pretty damned good.

My Dad was the gunner officer on a destroyer in WWII.  Ships have the advantage of knowing with fair precision where they are most of the time, plus a platform for radar and other sensors that can aim or guide munitions.

How you did that shit on the open ground, with a towed cannon, with shitty maps and compasses, I'll never understand.

Edited by TwiceHorn
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5 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

On a side note, I don't know about Russian artillery and how safe their fuses are, but our fuses typically don't arm until they are in flight, and have spun a certain amount of revolutions.  It uses centrifugal force to cause a metal rod to slide out of the way and then the fuse can actually make the shell go explodey - if that rod has not slid out of the way, then even if the fuse goes off, the fire does not travel down into the shell and blow up.  I'm oversimplifying, but I'll try to find a video of it.  It's kind of a low-tech solution to making sure things are as safe as possible.

Oh yeah, I forgot about that, even our old stuff had pretty good safety features.  Since when have the Russians given two shits about safety.  I know their stuff is inert without the fuses, but I don't think they have the rotational safeties.  

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10 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

How you did that shit on the open ground, with a towed cannon, with shitty maps and compasses, I'll never understand.

In WWII the Germans always insisted it was unfair to them that every time we had a battle our artillery was always there to ruin their day.  They marveled at the accuracy, but more so the fact that our artillery seem to be everywhere raining shells on them.  But then, this was from a German army that still pulled most of their crap using horses.   

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6 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

In WWII the Germans always insisted it was unfair to them that every time we had a battle our artillery was always there to ruin their day.  They marveled at the accuracy, but more so the fact that our artillery seem to be everywhere raining shells on them.  But then, this was from a German army that still pulled most of their crap using horses.   

Funny story about that, initially when we fired artillery a guy would show in a motorcycle with a guy in a side car.  At the time, we only trained certainly people on how to aim.  Well, it didn't take very long for the Germans to figure out if they shot the guy in the side car they wouldn't reign down artillery upon you.  Shortly there after, the Army changed it's approach.  

We learn by doing.  

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35 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Artillery is fascinating.  I'm reading this whole ass series of books by this guy named William Peter Grasso set in WWII, Korea, and Vietnam, and there's a goodly bit of discussion about artillery, and tanks, and close air support, from a practical, hands-on, how-it-works frame of reference.  The books are really pretty damned good.

That first video I linked above, the M777 one, gives you a really good view of how the whole process works from start to finish, and and it's pretty safe - obviously we have many decades, well centuries, of experience, but there's all these little things that are done to try and make it as safe for our guys as possible (he even mentioned why you hear soldiers say "say again" instead of  "repeat")

35 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

How you did that shit on the open ground, with a towed cannon, with shitty maps and compasses, I'll never understand.

I think WWII was really where things came into their own, in terms of communications, mobility, etc. keeping pace with the range (and accuracy).  I know that WWI is the one most people think of, given what the artillery did to the soldiers with static lines and lots of time to just rain down shells in the same areas (I believe artillery was responsible for the bulk of combat casualties).  With WWII, you had the range + wireless communications + mobility + modern maps (although they weren't always the best depending on where you were at).  The latter stages of the Civil War saw artillery start to really move away from line-of-sight aiming down the barrel or the gunners being able to observe where their shots landed and more into indirect fire, and you'd have dudes off in the distance with flags sending signals back (including in hot air balloons), and by WWI they'd have either aerial observers or some kind of observers that sometimes had radios (very limited range), telephones or telegraphs or whatever, but WWII took things to the next level.

When I was in during the early 90s, we had hand-held GPS units (they weighed a few pounds and battery life was shit), and some range finders, but we still had to know how to do things manually, both because simply having GPS just meant you knew where you were at, and also because battery life was crap.  We also had some primitive laptops that were "toughened" (after the first Gulf War, the military was going crazy with GPS and figuring out the portable computer stuff in the 90s) but again, battery life was shit and the batteries were really heavy, and the laptops were heavy and yet still fragile because the hard drives were mechanical, and it was DOS programs (actually we had to use some kind of proprietary OS, but I think it was just a rebranded DOS).  But we had damned good maps, and that was huge.

What they have now is amazing with being able to send everything instantly, digitally between the forward observers and the guns towards the rear.  And then the Ukrainians have added drones into the mix, and are using those as forward observers, which is taking artillery to the next level.  They can observe a much larger area and can get past the front lines easily.  Yeah, we had drones 30 years ago (the battleships actually used them in the first Gulf War for artillery spotting), but it's just a whole other level.

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5 hours ago, SL Xpress said:

You have a different perspective on what happened in the Donbas than I do. I respect your knowledge and your contributions, so I'd like to seek some clarification if you get the time.

Brief timeline -

21 February 2014 Yanukovych flees Kyiv

27 February 2014 little green men appear in Crimea

16 March 2014 Crimean referendum

First government buildings seized in Donbas a couple of weeks later. Late March.

Shortly after Yanukovych's departure anti government pro Russian protests started in the Donbas. But the actual operation to secure various government buildings was not led by a mob or sportsman. I watched on individual's hand held camera phones in real time as obviously professional operatives secured police stations, national guard offices, and internal security places without a shot being fired. Some were contested, but they were so outgunned they immediately surrendered without a fight. Many of them seemed to be willing participants in the takeover. 

This gave a pretext for the arming of the separatists. Could be it was sufficient arms for what they ended up bearing. I don't know. But it could very well have merely supplemented what the Russians were providing, using the arms taken from the police offices, national guard armories, and internal security buildings as cover. Certainly this was true of the T-64 tanks, of which the separatists captured 20, and then Russia began supplying them more. 

Even with that the eventual anti terrorism operation by Ukraine in April had initial success until it was encircled and wiped out by an invading Russian armed force. 

My point is I don't think it was protests that did the heavy lifting in the Donbas. It was Russian operatives in a planned operation working alongside collaborators both from Russia and inside the Donbas who took over various buildings with armaments and then moved on to administrative buildings under armed threats that created the separatist regions, without really a single shot being fired. 

It's not clear how strong the pro Ukrainian sentiment really was. Yanukovych's strongest political support came from eastern Ukraine, and especially the Donbas. But Russia didn't bother finding out, taking advantage of the sense of chaos within the Ukrainian government, the lack of a sense of national mandate, the hollowing out of the military, and the strong pro Russian sentiments within the security forces, until Ukrainian patriot militias along with government forces came in and started pushing armed resistance towards the border, right up until the Russian army destroyed them. 

I guess my question then, is this different than how you view what happened in the Donbas? What part do you feel the protests played in helping Russia secure the Donbas for their separatists? Because I don't think they played any direct part compared to the operation carried out by Russian special forces/intelligence officers. Without their intercession I do not believe the separatist movement has anything remotely close to the effectiveness it had from the outset.

 

You’re confusing my description of how the pro-Russia Donbas protests (and protests across the rest of southern and eastern Ukraine) formed with what they actually accomplished.  For Russia, it was important that they happen, and it was important that some of them become violent. There was never a real mass movement to separate, and the actual separatists were always Russia directed or simply Russian (military commanders) but the Kremlin wanted images of mass street unrest so that it could use them to introduce confusion about what was actually happened. It wanted to create a fake Maidan, so to speak.

The protests were frequent and often got violent (aforementioned sportsmen and drunks) and were an integral part of the narrative Russia told the world about Easter Ukraine. 
 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2014_pro-Russian_unrest_in_Ukraine

 

 

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7 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

You’re confusing my description of how the pro-Russia Donbas protests (and protests across the rest of southern and eastern Ukraine) formed with what they actually accomplished.  For Russia, it was important that they happen, and it was important that some of them become violent. There was never a real mass movement to separate, and the actual separatists were always Russia directed or simply Russian (military commanders) but the Kremlin wanted images of mass street unrest so that it could use them to introduce confusion about what was actually happened. It wanted to create a fake Maidan, so to speak.

The protests were frequent and often got violent (aforementioned sportsmen and drunks) and were an integral part of the narrative Russia told the world about Easter Ukraine. 
 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2014_pro-Russian_unrest_in_Ukraine

 

 

Vice did a good series about it if anyone wants to watch. 

 

 

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1 hour ago, TwiceHorn said:

How you did that shit on the open ground, with a towed cannon, with shitty maps and compasses, I'll never understand.

When calling in battalion mortars, it helps to assume they'll target you instead of the enemy if you give them half a chance. As in, if the target is 500 meters away and the first shots hit halfway between you and it, do not adjust fire by 250 meters. Try a smaller amount, until you are convinced that the future fry-cooks are walking it in the right direction.

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5 hours ago, RDCanecutter said:

When calling in battalion mortars, it helps to assume they'll target you instead of the enemy if you give them half a chance. As in, if the target is 500 meters away and the first shots hit halfway between you and it, do not adjust fire by 250 meters. Try a smaller amount, until you are convinced that the future fry-cooks are walking it in the right direction.

Left 25, Drop 50.....FRY for effect? 

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10 hours ago, SL Xpress said:

Lockheed doubling their HIMARS production from 48 to 96 units per year. They had already made plans to increase it to 60, but now they've increased it further. Made by Lockheed. Marketed by UAF.

"When you have a combat proven system that is out there and in the news - daily - then that's driving that demand," said Jennifer McManus, the vice president for operations of Lockheed's missile business.

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/lockheeds-himars-plant-gearing-up-meet-demand-after-ukraine-success-2023-02-28/

The Lockheed board room:

 

Laughing-Men-In-Suits.jpg

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7 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

 

I really don't see Russia meddling in other country's politics.  

But yeah, Moldova is a strange flex even for the Kremlin.  The geographic strategy is obvious though for a southern flank.  But the implications with Romania and Bulgaria are an insane gambit when you game it out.  I like the way this is going for NATO and Ukraine, but this next step is gonna get real ugly.

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