Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[RDCanecutter 26401]

1 hour ago, Gatorubet said:

I am increasingly convinced that Russia simply does not have enough armor in reserve to do much to stop it.

They still have enough tanks to be dangerous if they were a real army. 

huhu

huhuhuhuhuhuhuhuhuuuu.

[atomheartbevo 89630]

2 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

 I am increasingly convinced that Russia simply does not have enough armor in reserve to do much to stop it.

If Russia truly had the armor they need, we would have already seen it in Bakhmut and elsewhere - these offensives to try and take small towns by the Russians wouldn't be dragging on as long as they have and resembling something out of WWI.  Even if Bakhmut is about weakening/destroying Wagner, there's still way too many Russian Army regulars/conscripts scratching out a few meters a day when a modern armored force would have punched through there and put the exit routes under fire (direct or indirect).

Also, I think we'd see a lot more tanks/armored units setting up to protect Crimea, and I think Putin would be parading them around and/or the military would be moving them around to spook the Ukrainians.

They are making a few dozen tanks a month at their factories, and trying to restart some factories/production lines that shut down years ago, which those lines were probably stripped bare of anything that could be sold for scrap.

[atomheartbevo 89630]

4 hours ago, BamaATL said:

For those interested in how a Russian ground force would fare against the US (and why the US doesn't need dumb artillery), I suggest watching this

I had this discussion with an older relative who was worried about China and that we needed to hold back stuff to fight the Chinese (he's old enough to remember the Korean War and had an older brother who fought in it).  I told him that if the Chinese go after Taiwan, it ain't going to be artillery that's an issue since Taiwan has enough of it for what they need, and they also have plenty of places to bottleneck Chinese troops so they aren't like the Ukrainians and having to fight on fronts that run hundreds of miles long.  That would be decided by missiles and putting Chinese landing craft/ships on the bottom.

The point was, whatever we have in terms of dumb artillery, and even the "forbidden" artillery (cluster munitions), we should be releasing to Ukraine.  Nobody is going to invade us, and even if the Chinese tangled with us, we aren't hauling M777s and M109s around the Pacific waiting to somehow get them close enough to use them against the Chinese (which would be landing them on Taiwan, which already has artillery).

All of the recent videos aren't doing much to make me think the Russians are doing well either. I disagree about defending Bakhmut, but the flip side - the Russians can't seem to get it done after all these months, and it's gnawing away at them on Russian social media.  They have a whole lot of dudes there that are dismounted and if the Ukrainians spring a surprise offensive, I'm not sure how they'd get those guys from Bakhmut to elsewhere to counter the Ukrainians.

Edited March 14, 2023 by atomheartbevo

[KYHorn 17017]

The full thread explains additional context and details about "initiative" and "momentum" but here's a reasonable summary:

 

 

[Post Oak 20209]

Get there firstest with the mostest

[KYHorn 17017]

 

 

 

[KYHorn 17017]

 

 

 

 

[BamaATL 16593]

6 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

I had this discussion with an older relative who was worried about China and that we needed to hold back stuff to fight the Chinese (he's old enough to remember the Korean War and had an older brother who fought in it).  I told him that if the Chinese go after Taiwan, it ain't going to be artillery that's an issue since Taiwan has enough of it for what they need, and they also have plenty of places to bottleneck Chinese troops so they aren't like the Ukrainians and having to fight on fronts that run hundreds of miles long.  That would be decided by missiles and putting Chinese landing craft/ships on the bottom.

The point was, whatever we have in terms of dumb artillery, and even the "forbidden" artillery (cluster munitions), we should be releasing to Ukraine.  Nobody is going to invade us, and even if the Chinese tangled with us, we aren't hauling M777s and M109s around the Pacific waiting to somehow get them close enough to use them against the Chinese (which would be landing them on Taiwan, which already has artillery).

All of the recent videos aren't doing much to make me think the Russians are doing well either. I disagree about defending Bakhmut, but the flip side - the Russians can't seem to get it done after all these months, and it's gnawing away at them on Russian social media.  They have a whole lot of dudes there that are dismounted and if the Ukrainians spring a surprise offensive, I'm not sure how they'd get those guys from Bakhmut to elsewhere to counter the Ukrainians.

We have long since been going from dumb munitions to precision weapons because if you can do it, it's a lot easier to have one fire, one kill.  It's not like mass fire can't work, it can.  However, its ultimately far more cost effective to do it our way.  Additionally, the way we do things now, it's much less costly for us in terms of human costs.  The idea that we would ever consider just out manning and overwhelming an enemy with infantry is long gone.   Quite frankly, that's WWI type shit, and if you were unlucky WWII by the Soviets.  If you take the Conoco fields battle as an example (and that was 5 years ago), after an artillery barrage by Wagner, their convoy, intended for an infantry strike and over-run, never got out the starting block before they were essentially melted alive.  Meanwhile, our people, save the from the initial artillery barrage, were never really in danger.  We are exceedingly good at things like equipment destruction and tactical strikes.   

What we suck at is occupation.  However, the truth is, no one is good at that, for lots of reasons.  Seeing as though we have no colonial aspirations, this was the correct course of action (it's a hell of a lot better to create partnerships and beneficial to both parties than to conduct an occupation).  We determined long ago that the way ultimately forward is to create a force that is lean, mean, extremely lethal at a distance, and quite frankly extraordinarily intimidating to any uniformed combatant.  There are better ways to solve problems than using these capabilities and the hope is that instead of it coming to that other options can be explored.  All that being said, if you want to fuck around and find out, you can, but the idea is to make that an insane option.  Ironically, we spend as much we do on these advanced weapon systems to try to ensure that they are never utilized.  But then you run into a dumbfuck like Putin.  

[KYHorn 17017]

 

 

 

[SL Xpress 7513]

49 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

We have long since been going from dumb munitions to precision weapons because if you can do it, it's a lot easier to have one fire, one kill.  It's not like mass fire can't work, it can.  However, its ultimately far more cost effective to do it our way.  Additionally, the way we do things now, it's much less costly for us in terms of human costs.  The idea that we would ever consider just out manning and overwhelming an enemy with infantry is long gone.   Quite frankly, that's WWI type shit, and if you were unlucky WWII by the Soviets.  If you take the Conoco fields battle as an example (and that was 5 years ago), after an artillery barrage by Wagner, their convoy, intended for an infantry strike and over-run, never got out the starting block before they were essentially melted alive.  Meanwhile, our people, save the from the initial artillery barrage, were never really in danger.  We are exceedingly good at things like equipment destruction and tactical strikes.   

What we suck at is occupation.  However, the truth is, no one is good at that, for lots of reasons.  Seeing as though we have no colonial aspirations, this was the correct course of action (it's a hell of a lot better to create partnerships and beneficial to both parties than to conduct an occupation).  We determined long ago that the way ultimately forward is to create a force that is lean, mean, extremely lethal at a distance, and quite frankly extraordinarily intimidating to any uniformed combatant.  There are better ways to solve problems than using these capabilities and the hope is that instead of it coming to that other options can be explored.  All that being said, if you want to fuck around and find out, you can, but the idea is to make that an insane option.  Ironically, we spend as much we do on these advanced weapon systems to try to ensure that they are never utilized.  But then you run into a dumbfuck like Putin.  

I would argue that the United States is better at occupations than any other country in the modern world. 

The southern United States after the civil war. West Germany. Japan. South Korea (a bit of a hybrid, but certainly counts as a success if Vietnam counts as a failure - which it does). 

Panama isn’t a failed state. I’m not sure what Grenada is, but no news is good news. 

The truth is there aren’t that many great success stories out there. 

I’d also argue that both Afghanistan and Iraq we’re doomed to fail as occupations from the start. It wasn’t just that the US was bad at them. It’s like we were purposefully as bad as possible. I remember in the months leading up to the second Gulf War articles coming out in Foreign Affairs describing the complete lack of attention to post war occupation, and how it was going to lead to a disaster. It wasn’t like it was some kind of surprise. Experts in the field publicly predicted it. 

The problem was there wasn’t the political will in either administration to carry the costs of an effective occupation, while the one they did on the cheap had predictable results. The closest we ever had to a decent approach to occupation was The Surge led by McCain’s efforts in Congress. That still wasn’t enough, but it wa certainly the right idea. 

The truth is we don’t care about things that happen beyond our borders as a general population, so unless the elites can come to some kind of collaborative understanding without the will of the people involved - which is how we’ve been able to operate as a superpower post World War II in the first place - then large foreign policy objectives are eventually doomed for lack of resources and political will. 

And now we see DeSantis echoing calls to quit funding Ukraine. Which should be a red flag for where the base is going in regards to this war. Instead of differentiating himself from Trump on this issue he’s decided he can’t win the nomination unless he differentiates on other issues. And he’s probably right. 

I was texting with one of my closest friends yesterday about the bank closures. He’s in finance. I mentioned $42 billion exited Silicon Valley Bank in one day and his response was “well, that’s how much we send Ukraine in one hour.” He’s definitely always been a part of the evangelical wing of Trump supporters, so it’s obvious to me he’s simply echoing a talking point that’s seen as fact in his circles. 

Anyway, the main point is that we’ve actually been very good at occupations historically compared to the rest of the world. We just don’t have the political will to do them right any more. 

[Schulz2.0 28951]

 

[KYHorn 17017]

A few potential reasons for the minefield issues Russia has experienced:

 

 

 

 

[KYHorn 17017]

6 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

A few potential reasons for the minefield issues Russia has experienced:

 

 

 

 

Original video (kinda blurry and not really gory).

 

 

[KYHorn 17017]

 

 

 ATTN: Girkin

 

 

[KYHorn 17017]

 

 The full ISW report is worth the read, but a few highlights include:

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko met with Iranian officials in Tehran on March 13 to expand bilateral cooperation and bolster sanctions mitigations. 

Spoiler

Iranian state media reported that Lukashenko met with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber.[11] Raisi and Lukashenko signed eight cooperation agreements in the spheres of comprehensive cooperation, trade, transportation, agriculture, and culture and noted that Belarus and Iran tripled bilateral trade in 2022 compared to 2021.[12] Raisi notably stated that cooperation with Belarus could be a way for both nations to counter sanctions.[13] Lukashenko has frequently acted as a Kremlin vassal in recent trips to foreign countries, and his visit to Tehran is likely a component of the Kremlin’s wider effort to secure continued Iranian support in the face of international sanctions.[14] Iranian state media notably announced on March 11 that Iran has finalized a deal to buy Su-35 combat aircraft from Russia, indicating that military, political, and economic agreements between Tehran and Moscow are continuing to prove mutually beneficial for both parties.[15] The Kremlin will likely continue to leverage Lukashenko’s influence to deepen cooperation with Tehran.

A Russian State Duma bill aiming to raise the conscription age suggests that the Kremlin is not planning to conduct full mobilization in the future. The Russian State Duma received a bill for consideration on March 13 that would implement Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu’s proposal for raising the conscription age.[20] The bill would raise the maximum conscription age from 27 to 30 immediately while raising the minimum conscription age from 18 to 21 with a one-year annual increase between 2024 and 2026.

Spoiler

Shoigu proposed the conscription age increase at the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) board meeting on December 21, 2022, and Russian officials have since offered oscillating statements on whether the increase would apply to upcoming conscription cycles in the spring and fall of 2023.[22] The bill’s immediate increase of the maximum age likely seeks to expand the conscription age range to fulfill some portion of the Russian military’s immediate manpower demands in Ukraine and then subsequently shrink the overall conscription demands on Russian society in the following years. The gradual increase of the minimum conscription age means that three-year groups of potential Russian conscripts will essentially receive deferments of three, two, and one years each, while the current year groups eligible for conscription face continued attritional fighting in Ukraine. The Kremlin may be attempting to shield a new generation of Russians from the demographic and social impacts of attritional fighting in Ukraine by siloing these impacts among one generational group of Russians. The timeline given for the contraction of the conscription age range may also suggest that the Kremlin does not expect the war in Ukraine to last longer than the next three years. This proposed expansion of the conscription age range is another incremental force generation effort well below full mobilization and indicates that the Kremlin is still highly averse to the prospect of a full mobilization.  

We've seen descriptions of these new units before, but this adds a bit more analysis:

The Russian military is reportedly employing the newly created “assault detachments” in different manners across different tactical situations. A Ukrainian reserve officer who has previously reported on a captured Russian military manual on the new “assault detachment” reported on March 12 that Russian forces are using both formalized permanent assault (“storm”) units and ad hoc temporary assault detachments in Ukraine.

Spoiler

The Ukrainian officer reported that Russian forces have integrated permanent assault units into battalion, regiment, and brigade structures and that their size ranges from that of a company to that of a reinforced battalion.[24]  Russian forces reportedly assemble temporary assault detachments within a regiment or battalion for specific operations and do not give these temporary detachments a number, name, defined structure, regular commander, or specific armaments.[25] Permanent Russian assault detachments reportedly have designated commanders and are most often comprised of one or two tanks, several armored personnel carriers, and 40 to 80 personnel.[26] Russian forces reportedly will form temporary assault detachments to respond to situations as they arise, and these formations apparently often retreat after initial losses and suffer from significant communication and coordination problems.[27] Russian forces reportedly designed permanent assault units to break through Ukrainian positions and may have modeled them after the Wagner Group‘s small-scale assault tactics in the Bakhmut area.[28] Russian forces have also reportedly used some of these permanent assault units for punitive reasons and forcibly staff them with problematic and disobedient soldiers to retaliate against them for bad behavior.[29]

The Russian military is likely attempting to concentrate combat-ready forces and equipment in permanent formations trained to conduct small-scale assaults while distancing severely degraded formations from offensive operations of tactical importance. Russian forces are reportedly employing these assault formations to attack well-fortified Ukrainian positions and conduct urban warfare.[30] These non-doctrinal formations would likely struggle to conduct a mechanized advance across open country in Ukraine, and Russian forces are likely implementing them for conditions on the current frontlines and not for any wider operational goals.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-update-march-13-2023 

[BamaATL 16593]

But other than that, things are great!

 

[statsman 5456]

Shareable link to WSJ article on Russian supply issues-

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/acute-artillery-shortage-is-hampering-russias-offensive-in-east-ukraine-western-officials-say-6f2fb94a?st=1l9fdim9nis9y3o&reflink=share_mobilewebshare

[Scheiss Meister 8407]

28 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

 

 The full ISW report is worth the read, but a few highlights include:

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko met with Iranian officials in Tehran on March 13 to expand bilateral cooperation and bolster sanctions mitigations. 

  Reveal hidden contents

Iranian state media reported that Lukashenko met with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber.[11] Raisi and Lukashenko signed eight cooperation agreements in the spheres of comprehensive cooperation, trade, transportation, agriculture, and culture and noted that Belarus and Iran tripled bilateral trade in 2022 compared to 2021.[12] Raisi notably stated that cooperation with Belarus could be a way for both nations to counter sanctions.[13] Lukashenko has frequently acted as a Kremlin vassal in recent trips to foreign countries, and his visit to Tehran is likely a component of the Kremlin’s wider effort to secure continued Iranian support in the face of international sanctions.[14] Iranian state media notably announced on March 11 that Iran has finalized a deal to buy Su-35 combat aircraft from Russia, indicating that military, political, and economic agreements between Tehran and Moscow are continuing to prove mutually beneficial for both parties.[15] The Kremlin will likely continue to leverage Lukashenko’s influence to deepen cooperation with Tehran.

A Russian State Duma bill aiming to raise the conscription age suggests that the Kremlin is not planning to conduct full mobilization in the future. The Russian State Duma received a bill for consideration on March 13 that would implement Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu’s proposal for raising the conscription age.[20] The bill would raise the maximum conscription age from 27 to 30 immediately while raising the minimum conscription age from 18 to 21 with a one-year annual increase between 2024 and 2026.

  Hide contents

Shoigu proposed the conscription age increase at the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) board meeting on December 21, 2022, and Russian officials have since offered oscillating statements on whether the increase would apply to upcoming conscription cycles in the spring and fall of 2023.[22] The bill’s immediate increase of the maximum age likely seeks to expand the conscription age range to fulfill some portion of the Russian military’s immediate manpower demands in Ukraine and then subsequently shrink the overall conscription demands on Russian society in the following years. The gradual increase of the minimum conscription age means that three-year groups of potential Russian conscripts will essentially receive deferments of three, two, and one years each, while the current year groups eligible for conscription face continued attritional fighting in Ukraine. The Kremlin may be attempting to shield a new generation of Russians from the demographic and social impacts of attritional fighting in Ukraine by siloing these impacts among one generational group of Russians. The timeline given for the contraction of the conscription age range may also suggest that the Kremlin does not expect the war in Ukraine to last longer than the next three years. This proposed expansion of the conscription age range is another incremental force generation effort well below full mobilization and indicates that the Kremlin is still highly averse to the prospect of a full mobilization.  

We've seen descriptions of these new units before, but this adds a bit more analysis:

The Russian military is reportedly employing the newly created “assault detachments” in different manners across different tactical situations. A Ukrainian reserve officer who has previously reported on a captured Russian military manual on the new “assault detachment” reported on March 12 that Russian forces are using both formalized permanent assault (“storm”) units and ad hoc temporary assault detachments in Ukraine.

  Hide contents

The Ukrainian officer reported that Russian forces have integrated permanent assault units into battalion, regiment, and brigade structures and that their size ranges from that of a company to that of a reinforced battalion.[24]  Russian forces reportedly assemble temporary assault detachments within a regiment or battalion for specific operations and do not give these temporary detachments a number, name, defined structure, regular commander, or specific armaments.[25] Permanent Russian assault detachments reportedly have designated commanders and are most often comprised of one or two tanks, several armored personnel carriers, and 40 to 80 personnel.[26] Russian forces reportedly will form temporary assault detachments to respond to situations as they arise, and these formations apparently often retreat after initial losses and suffer from significant communication and coordination problems.[27] Russian forces reportedly designed permanent assault units to break through Ukrainian positions and may have modeled them after the Wagner Group‘s small-scale assault tactics in the Bakhmut area.[28] Russian forces have also reportedly used some of these permanent assault units for punitive reasons and forcibly staff them with problematic and disobedient soldiers to retaliate against them for bad behavior.[29]

The Russian military is likely attempting to concentrate combat-ready forces and equipment in permanent formations trained to conduct small-scale assaults while distancing severely degraded formations from offensive operations of tactical importance. Russian forces are reportedly employing these assault formations to attack well-fortified Ukrainian positions and conduct urban warfare.[30] These non-doctrinal formations would likely struggle to conduct a mechanized advance across open country in Ukraine, and Russian forces are likely implementing them for conditions on the current frontlines and not for any wider operational goals.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-update-march-13-2023 

Those assault groups don't seem like they would have a lot of value for defending ground, especially from more mobile and better equipped mechanized units.  That lack of C3 is a recipe for defensive disaster.  We'll see once the Ukrainian offensive begins.

[SquishMitten 10403]

On 3/13/2023 at 7:42 AM, KYHorn said:

The story of two Wagnerites, one with a stick, lost in the wilderness.

 

 

That’s a pretty loose definition of “capture”

[Superhero 8828]

With all of the talk about mines, it’s anyone concerned that the Ukrainians will hit Russian mines, or worse yet, their own mines they used to slow the Russians?

 Mines kill indiscriminately, and don’t care whose tanks run over them. 

[SL Xpress 7513]

4 minutes ago, Superhero said:

With all of the talk about mines, it’s anyone concerned that the Ukrainians will hit Russian mines, or worse yet, their own mines they used to slow the Russians?

 Mines kill indiscriminately, and don’t care whose tanks run over them. 

Sure. It's a major issue.

It's also affecting the spring crops for Ukrainian farmers. They'll be dealing with mines in this country for the next decade or two.

There's always going to be a chance of Ukrainian forces getting hit by them. I'd go so far as to say a 100% chance. You just hope the damage is limited and mine clearing actions are effective. 

[RDCanecutter 26401]

8 minutes ago, Scheiss Meister said:

Those assault groups don't seem like they would have a lot of value for defending ground, especially from more mobile and better equipped mechanized units.  That lack of C3 is a recipe for defensive disaster.  We'll see once the Ukrainian offensive begins.

The idea is to run the ball up the middle on 4th and one with the assault troops. After that, you'd throw up a defense of machineguns and anti-tank teams, and pull the assault troops for the next punch.

But of course they'll just leave them hanging out there to become targets.

[Gatorubet 30189]

Increase from 1.15 to 1.5 million conscripted men.   Raise draft age to 30. (Ha! Already forcing older 40 yo for some time)

Nothing says the original special operation is going well than needing another 350 K for the meat grinder.    Or maybe they need them to terrorize the salty ‘Stans as the Federation might break up.     Chechnya is one fat, push-up loving, failing liver, dip shit leader with many rivals/enemies death away from another go at independence. 

[Parliament 14249]

23 minutes ago, RDCanecutter said:

The idea is to run the ball up the middle on 4th and one with the assault troops.

Maybe a WR screen behind the line of scrimmage?

[atomheartbevo 89630]

13 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

Nothing says the original special operation is going well than needing another 350 K for the meat grinder.    Or maybe they need them to terrorize the salty ‘Stans as the Federation might break up.     Chechnya is one fat, push-up loving, failing liver, dip shit leader with many rivals/enemies death away from another go at independence. 

Me thinks they are losing a lot more than anybody realizes.  It’s not just the deaths - the weather and shitty medical care has got to be taking wounded that would otherwise survive and instead killing them.

speaking of the ‘Stans….would be hilarious if this crippled the Russian space program.  Mentioned earlier in the thread, but this is new - the idea of Russia having to pull out.   Also, I don’t think Russia is capable of attacking anybody else right now.  Georgia would be at their limit.

 

[Grade of D as in David 13253]

35 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

Increase from 1.15 to 1.5 million conscripted men.   Raise draft age to 30. (Ha! Already forcing older 40 yo for some time)

Nothing says the original special operation is going well than needing another 350 K for the meat grinder.    Or maybe they need them to terrorize the salty ‘Stans as the Federation might break up.     Chechnya is one fat, push-up loving, failing liver, dip shit leader with many rivals/enemies death away from another go at independence. 

He's really doing everything he can to avoid taking people from Moscow in St. Petersburg isn't he.

[BabaYaga 15289]

22 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Me thinks they are losing a lot more than anybody realizes.  It’s not just the deaths - the weather and shitty medical care has got to be taking wounded that would otherwise survive and instead killing them.

This is how Russia fights a war.  This is always how they've fought them.  They won't change now.  

[Gatorubet 30189]

5 minutes ago, Grade of D as in David said:

He's really doing everything he can to avoid taking people from Moscow in St. Petersburg isn't he.

Putin will fight to the very last Buryat or Tatar!!

[atomheartbevo 89630]

7 minutes ago, Grade of D as in David said:

He's really doing everything he can to avoid taking people from Moscow in St. Petersburg isn't he.

Yep.  And the odd thing is, it feels like with a country of 140 million people, he should have a larger pool of eligible men to draw from.   Zeihan or one of the other numbers people have talked about how there isn’t an accurate population count for Russia, but I can’t see it being off by that much.

[MillerEP 30448]

 

[Grade of D as in David 13253]

Russian jets force down U.S. drone over Black Sea, military says

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/03/14/russia-forces-down-us-reaper-drone-black-sea/

Quote

A pair of Russian fighter jets intercepted and forced down an American surveillance drone over the Black Sea on Tuesday, U.S. officials said, with one Russian jet colliding with the propeller of the unmanned aircraft after both Russian warplanes dumped fuel on it.

The incident prompted Air Force drone pilots to bring down the MQ-9 Reaper in international waters in what U.S. officials said has become a “pattern of dangerous actions by Russian pilots” while interacting with American and allied aircraft in international airspace. The actions, U.S. military officials said in a statement, “could lead to miscalculation and unintended escalation” between the two countries.

 

[KYHorn 17017]

 

 

 

Edited March 14, 2023 by KYHorn

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

Just a direct Russian US aircraft incident.  Cool cool cool.  

[SmokeyTheBear 5562]

[686 3447]

Literally we’re here now

[MillerEP 30448]

 

[686 3447]

I would think that Reaper could do maneuvering that would make it very difficult for the jet to literally touch it, like fly close to stall speed or low speed tight turns. Wondering if the Reaper didn’t deviate from course because we wanted to see how far the Russians would escalate/didn’t think they would actually instigate a mid air collision.

[DaggerHorns 3081]

[Scheiss Meister 8407]

I bet the Rivet Joints over the Black Sea get fighter escorts from now on.  Hell, they may already.  The Reaper can carry multiple AIM-9X Sidewinders, too.

[MillerEP 30448]

 

I'm not a betting man, but I'm 99% certain the drone thing will not amount to any meaningful response.

Edited March 14, 2023 by MillerEP

[Parliament 14249]

23 minutes ago, Grade of D as in David said:

Russian jets force down U.S. drone over Black Sea, military says

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/03/14/russia-forces-down-us-reaper-drone-black-sea/

 

Can't be Surly without a:

 

[RDCanecutter 26401]

If we do not avenge our stricken drone, all the other machines that serve us will take note.

[ABSR 5308]

32 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Yep.  And the odd thing is, it feels like with a country of 140 million people, he should have a larger pool of eligible men to draw from.   Zeihan or one of the other numbers people have talked about how there isn’t an accurate population count for Russia, but I can’t see it being off by that much.

Zeihan had a report on China which is an interesting comparison.   Per below China's census said 1.41Billion people but people believe that is 130 million too high.  Lot's of reasons but Zeihan had said a driver was that regions/areas got funding and paid based on population, so creating fake excess kids/people drove funding.   Zeihan's other point was that based on the reasoning/timing for the over counting that this 130M people all fall within the younger (baby to early adult) demographic, which is the most important for both future population growth and having jobs and driving the economy.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/china-2020-census-inflates-population-figures-downplays-demographic-challenge-by-yi-fuxian-2021-08

 

So we know Russia will lie about everything to make themselves look better.  And if they had reasons to encourage regions/people to inflate births/population then we know that they likely did so.  And, the "age" of this paper population would likely be 0-30 range.

So we don't know for sure, but if someone in Russia could falsify something in order to get paid for it by the state, well that is almost expected.

[Pato del Muerto 52487]

52 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Yep.  And the odd thing is, it feels like with a country of 140 million people, he should have a larger pool of eligible men to draw from.   Zeihan or one of the other numbers people have talked about how there isn’t an accurate population count for Russia, but I can’t see it being off by that much.

Russian population splits are a sine wave thanks to ww2 losses. Could it be that putin managed to wage this war during a dip in the 20-40 year olds, thus magnifying the wave amplitude?  I don’t know that immigration has flattened it over the decades. 

[Chad Fuck 17661]

Me thinks they are losing a lot more than anybody realizes.  It’s not just the deaths - the weather and shitty medical care has got to be taking wounded that would otherwise survive and instead killing them.
speaking of the ‘Stans….would be hilarious if this crippled the Russian space program.  Mentioned earlier in the thread, but this is new - the idea of Russia having to pull out.   Also, I don’t think Russia is capable of attacking anybody else right now.  Georgia would be at their limit.
 

That would be the ultimate redemption of Kazakhstan and perhaps open up the door to a Borat sequel where he is making fun of the Russians for being ignorant and backwards while Kazakhstan is a space faring nation. Can’t fucking wait.

[Pescado_Rojo 19416]

1 minute ago, Chad Fuck said:

That would be the ultimate redemption of Kazakhstan and perhaps open up the door to a Borat sequel where he is making fun of the Russians for being ignorant and backwards while Kazakhstan is a space faring nation. Can’t fucking wait.

My neighbor? He cannot afford...Great success! 

[atomheartbevo 89630]

34 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

I'm not a betting man, but I'm 99% certain the drone thing will not amount to any meaningful response.

Maybe more aid to Ukraine.  It seems to be dominating the news today.  

[Sbbruin 21830]

It appears the Russians didn’t fear the Reaper

[Gatorubet 30189]

33 minutes ago, RDCanecutter said:

If we do not avenge our stricken drone, all the other machines that serve us will take note.

As a kid, I learned how this would ultimately wind up.

[ChickenSandwich 9829]

Time to re-up with Old Glory Insurance