Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[Armybrat 40856]

11 hours ago, BamaATL said:

Pretty awesome

 

I’m sure many of our congress critters would do the same.

[Armybrat 40856]

11 hours ago, SmokeyTheBear said:

That's going to give me persistent genital arousal disorder 

Austin garage band name?

[bolverk 29695]

3 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

My favorite performance of that song, which has Slovak-Polish-Ukrainian versions:

And the English lyrics. Perfection for this:

For better or worse, you will be mine

I will heal your wounds with you

In the sun and in the cold, you are my homeland 

Hey, falcons! From a height, survey all that was ours! Cry out, cry out over the countryside!  Soar in summer and winter

Love of mine, my dear home

We were young men here

One day you will fine me under this clay

And the birds will fly over the land

Hey, falcons!…..

Here, at the place where there is black water

A Cossack sat on his horse 

The young maiden is crying 

Because the Cossack is leaving Ukraine

Hey, falcons!……

 

 

That YouTube clip says it's not available in the US, but I'm positive we've heard this song before in the thread. Here's the first version that shows up in my search.

 

[956 Worldwide 34737]

8 minutes ago, bolverk said:

That YouTube clip says it's not available in the US, but I'm positive we've heard this song before in the thread. Here's the first version that shows up in my search.

 

Yeah, that’s the classic Polish version. This one doesn’t have the music video but should work; it’s a more modern Slovak-Ukrainian version. Song is a banger. 

 

[bolverk 29695]

5 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Yeah, that’s the classic Polish version. This one doesn’t have the music video but should work; it’s a more modern Slovak-Ukrainian version. Song is a banger. 

 

Good shit. We could probably start wearing purple and have a music thread just for Slavic, and Slavic-inspired, music.

[BamaATL 16593]

5 hours ago, Superhero said:

Sorry to be a Debbie Downer on this thread, but I’m sure the Russians have their own surveillance planes, and can see where the buildup is, and where the counteroffensive will come from.

What’s to stop the orcs from building up forces where the attack is anticipated to come?

Their planes can't operate beyond their lines without getting shot down.  Their air support was never designed for this sort of thing, its designed for close air support on the lines with SAMS in support.  Basically, they don't have forward air capability, and if they did, they would have air superiority and you couldn't mass anything anywhere for fear of it.  They don't have it.  Bottom line, there is a bunch of stuff in theater now that can kill them and their equipment before they can even fire or know its coming.  They can mass defense forces however they want in that scenario, basically, the plan is going to be to blast every bit of mechanized equipment they can, and frankly then just run them over and keep going.   Basic infantry will come in behind and clear whatever is left over.  

Basically, my money is on a shock and awe ground campaign.  Something so devastating and shocking that it causes areas of complete collapse for the Russian army.  

[Orange&White 5528]

4 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Basically, my money is on a shock and awe ground campaign.  Something so devastating and shocking that it causes areas of complete collapse for the Russian army.  

 

Hmmm, that sounds lovely. I'll have that, please.

[Walser 1109]

6 minutes ago, Orange&White said:

 

Hmmm, that sounds lovely. I'll have that, please.

[Viper 12109]

8 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

 

 

4 largest Nordic countries? Is there a 5th? Iceland I guess?

[atomheartbevo 89757]

 

[Parliament 14272]

27 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

 

Basically, my money is on a shock and awe ground campaign.  Something so devastating and shocking that it causes areas of complete collapse for the Russian army.  

Man I'd love that, but just don't think the UKA has enough people or weapons.  The only way that happens is if the kickass weaponry we've given them is even better than we think.

I also hate being the Debbie downer.  I see this thing being a continued slog.

[Laxtonto 12090]

5 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Their planes can't operate beyond their lines without getting shot down.  Their air support was never designed for this sort of thing, its designed for close air support on the lines with SAMS in support.  Basically, they don't have forward air capability, and if they did, they would have air superiority and you couldn't mass anything anywhere for fear of it.  They don't have it.  Bottom line, there is a bunch of stuff in theater now that can kill them and their equipment before they can even fire or know its coming.  They can mass defense forces however they want in that scenario, basically, the plan is going to be to blast every bit of mechanized equipment they can, and frankly then just run them over and keep going.   Basic infantry will come in behind and clear whatever is left over.  

Basically, my money is on a shock and awe ground campaign.  Something so devastating and shocking that it causes areas of complete collapse for the Russian army.  

It is sounding more and more like the major offensive will be in the corridor between Vuhlendar and Orikhiv. What makes it more interesting is if the offensive drives SW out of Orikhiv you could technically shoot the gap between the lake and Melitipol and drive  west to keep the lake at their back and sit on the "high" point around Vesle. There is no reason to commit to a full scale fight in Meltipol when this move would achieve the objective of putting it in HIMARS and artillery range plus allow a drive south to eventually take and secure Rykove.

From there the bridges Salkove is in range an in essence it cuts the troops west of the offensive off from all supplies and as an added bonus puts Melipol at risk tactically. At the same time then begin pressuring out of Kherson and force those troops to either stand and fight and therefore run the risk of getting trapped and ground up between the 2 forces or pulling out and having Melipol then become the western front and in a position to be encircled.

 

Lots of risk in something like this because if the forces south of Kherson are not sufficiently engaged, they can wheel east and we would have the mother of all mechanized battles on a wide open plain and huge losses on both sides, but if it works then Crimea is isolated and you are looking at either mass surrender of troops trapped on the Kherson peninsula or a massacre of troops that are cutoff from everything.

[atomheartbevo 89757]

Just now, Parliament said:

Man I'd love that, but just don't think the UKA has enough people or weapons.  The only way that happens is if the kickass weaponry we've given them is even better than we think.

I also hate being the Debbie downer.  I see this thing being a continued slog.

If the Ukrainians can hit the right area at the right moment, it doesn't have to be a massive counter-offensive with several hundred thousand people, it just has to panic the Russians and stress their already strained logistics and command and control even more.  It'll force them to put their troops on the move (and they won't be very successful at it within Ukraine proper due to a lack of transport trucks and trained personnel) and will force them to give up something. My guess is they would give up the Donbas areas to protect Crimea.

Also, it feels like Russia truly has truly hit a wall in terms of military effectiveness - if they had the troops and equipment to take Bakhmut, they would have done so by now, because it's not like Ukraine flooded a hundred thousand troops and hundreds of tanks into the area to defend it.  I'm probably wrong on that - I still don't get Bakhmut for the most part, but we don't have the exact numbers of what it's cost the Ukrainians, so maybe they are still okay with the ratio.

[bolverk 29695]

@956 Worldwide and others. I promise this is my last post on the song (this time with a Latin flair!):

 

[atomheartbevo 89757]

 

[Dahobbs 17627]

2 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

It’s going to be interesting to watch the long-term effect of the Russian defense industry’s struggle to meet obligations. The nations that have the budget, need, and desire to buy these things are all doing so to counter China in the Indo-Pacific. 
 

Russia’s been a preferred partner due to historic affinities, their willingness to sell cheap and to anyone, and to caginess about buying from us. Buying Russian doesn’t affront China, the Russians don’t block things in Congress over human rights and corruption, and you’re not dependent on the U.S. 

They can’t buy from China. In theory this opens the door up to us, but it also does for Europeans and emerging defense players like South Korea and Turkey. 

These are going to be the big beneficiaries of Russia's lost market share. Plus, South Korea will let you license a design for homegrown production and will provide training. If you're buying from the US, you're just buying systems and not the capability to manufacture it yourself. 

[Schulz2.0 28993]

 

 

[BamaATL 16593]

27 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

It is sounding more and more like the major offensive will be in the corridor between Vuhlendar and Orikhiv. What makes it more interesting is if the offensive drives SW out of Orikhiv you could technically shoot the gap between the lake and Melitipol and drive  west to keep the lake at their back and sit on the "high" point around Vesle. There is no reason to commit to a full scale fight in Meltipol when this move would achieve the objective of putting it in HIMARS and artillery range plus allow a drive south to eventually take and secure Rykove.

From there the bridges Salkove is in range an in essence it cuts the troops west of the offensive off from all supplies and as an added bonus puts Melipol at risk tactically. At the same time then begin pressuring out of Kherson and force those troops to either stand and fight and therefore run the risk of getting trapped and ground up between the 2 forces or pulling out and having Melipol then become the western front and in a position to be encircled.

 

Lots of risk in something like this because if the forces south of Kherson are not sufficiently engaged, they can wheel east and we would have the mother of all mechanized battles on a wide open plain and huge losses on both sides, but if it works then Crimea is isolated and you are looking at either mass surrender of troops trapped on the Kherson peninsula or a massacre of troops that are cutoff from everything.

Personally, I think this is what part of the plan looks like but I think this is much smaller than the actual plan.  What I think is going to happen is a multi-pronged mass attack with multiple strike groups heading in different directions.  

1.  Call it strike group east - Vuhledar will be their rally point, once the blast thru the lines there, part of that group will head to Mariupol to surround it.  There will be a splinter group that turns Rozivka to press westward.  

2.  Call it strike group west - Orikhiv will be their rally point, with eyes on Melitopol, with splinter groups moving both north and south.  The idea would be block off Crimea from the south west, give the remaining forces in southern Kherson Oblast no where to run.  

3.  Reserve group east - clean up operations east of Mariupol and line reinforcement to the west

4.  Reserve group west - the crushing force sent to destroy any remaining elements in Kherson Oblast.  

The whole key to this sort of thing is speed and maneuvering.  The real plan is that once you have them over-run in one area to just keep going and give them no where to regroup to.  If the Ukrainians set a boundary on the east (east of Mariupol), the rest of the force simply can't stop until they get a new line at Crimea.  You can leave the Russians isolated and surrounded in cities and force surrenders after the fact.  What you can't do is stop.  

[Laxtonto 12090]

6 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Personally, I think this is what part of the plan looks like but I think this is much smaller than the actual plan.  What I think is going to happen is a multi-pronged mass attack with multiple strike groups heading in different directions.  

1.  Call it strike group east - Vuhledar will be their rally point, once the blast thru the lines there, part of that group will head to Mariupol to surround it.  There will be a splinter group that turns Rozivka to press westward.  

2.  Call it strike group west - Orikhiv will be their rally point, with eyes on Melitopol, with splinter groups moving both north and south.  The idea would be block off Crimea from the south west, give the remaining forces in southern Kherson Oblast no where to run.  

3.  Reserve group east - clean up operations east of Mariupol and line reinforcement to the west

4.  Reserve group west - the crushing force sent to destroy any remaining elements in Kherson Oblast.  

The whole key to this sort of thing is speed and maneuvering.  The real plan is that once you have them over-run in one area to just keep going and give them no where to regroup to.  If the Ukrainians set a boundary on the east (east of Mariupol), the rest of the force simply can't stop until they get a new line at Crimea.  You can leave the Russians isolated and surrounded in cities and force surrenders after the fact.  What you can't do is stop.  

I think a lot of this will depend on the real number of the forces the UA has ready for this offensive. Also do they keep additional pressure going up north to force the RU to choose where to push their limited reserves.

 

This will be a huge chess match and right now we only know the size of the board and not really how many pieces we are playing with…

[BamaATL 16593]

2 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

I think a lot of this will depend on the real number of the forces the UA has ready for this offensive. Also do they keep additional pressure going up north to force the RU to choose where to push their limited reserves.

 

This will be a huge chess match and right now we only know the size of the board and not really how many pieces we are playing with…

This is true, it's all guess work based on rumors.  That having been said, I think the Ukrainians have been playing a bit of possum and I think the Russians are much more exhausted than reported.  But I've been wrong before.  

[Parliament 14272]

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

If the Ukrainians can hit the right area at the right moment, it doesn't have to be a massive counter-offensive with several hundred thousand people, it just has to panic the Russians and stress their already strained logistics and command and control even more.  It'll force them to put their troops on the move (and they won't be very successful at it within Ukraine proper due to a lack of transport trucks and trained personnel) and will force them to give up something. My guess is they would give up the Donbas areas to protect Crimea.

Also, it feels like Russia truly has truly hit a wall in terms of military effectiveness - if they had the troops and equipment to take Bakhmut, they would have done so by now, because it's not like Ukraine flooded a hundred thousand troops and hundreds of tanks into the area to defend it.  I'm probably wrong on that - I still don't get Bakhmut for the most part, but we don't have the exact numbers of what it's cost the Ukrainians, so maybe they are still okay with the ratio.

That makes me feel better.

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

Going against my mantra that the key to happiness is low expectations but I think UKR understands this offensive needs to be the decisive moment in this war.

I think they’re going to bring the thunder and the Ruskies are going to tuck tail and run.

The alternative of a long slog IMO means bad news for UKR.

[Trey3216 15350]

1 hour ago, BamaATL said:

Their planes can't operate beyond their lines without getting shot down.  Their air support was never designed for this sort of thing, its designed for close air support on the lines with SAMS in support.  Basically, they don't have forward air capability, and if they did, they would have air superiority and you couldn't mass anything anywhere for fear of it.  They don't have it.  Bottom line, there is a bunch of stuff in theater now that can kill them and their equipment before they can even fire or know its coming.  They can mass defense forces however they want in that scenario, basically, the plan is going to be to blast every bit of mechanized equipment they can, and frankly then just run them over and keep going.   Basic infantry will come in behind and clear whatever is left over.  

Basically, my money is on a shock and awe ground campaign.  Something so devastating and shocking that it causes areas of complete collapse for the Russian army.  

Yep. It's got a chance to make Gulf War 1's overwhelming mechanized/AF attack look like puppynuts.   

[956 Worldwide 34737]

1 hour ago, Dahobbs said:

These are going to be the big beneficiaries of Russia's lost market share. Plus, South Korea will let you license a design for homegrown production and will provide training. If you're buying from the US, you're just buying systems and not the capability to manufacture it yourself. 

There’s a trade off, though, that gets bigger as you move up the chain to the big-ticket items.  Capability for industrial cooperation. Nations that want, for instance, a 5th gen fighter or even 4.5 gen will have to go American or in some cases European. 

[956 Worldwide 34737]

Betting the Ukrainians flew their new MiGs to Uzhhorod. Runway is marked with a dropped pin relative to Slovak border.

Edited March 24, 2023 by 956 Worldwide

[BamaATL 16593]

12 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Looks like it's warming up quickly?

[texastough 1129]

2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

I still don't get Bakhmut for the most part, but we don't have the exact numbers of what it's cost the Ukrainians, so maybe they are still okay with the ratio.

IMO, all you need to understand Bakhmut is to look at the battle for Severodonetsk. That was an artillery duel with the Russians having a big numerical superiority in guns, so they were levelling the town slowly and inching forward to capture the rubble. The Ukrainians defended for a long time, because they were very slowly tactically retreating and then hammering the Russians when they advanced. While AFU eventually gave up the ground, the attrition on the Russian side lead to the highly successful Kharkiv offensive that liberated way more dirt than they had given up attriting the Russians.

Bakhmut is a different sort of battle due to Russia's current artillery shortage but I think the same principle still applies. Destroy as much Russian equipment and personnel as possible while preparing for the offensive. As one of Ukraine's soldiers mentioned, if they didn't fight them in Bakhmut, they would just have to fight them somewhere else. Now, if Bakhmut falls with a significant amount of Ukrainian forces surrounded/killed/captured, its a different story. But I think it fits with what has worked for Ukraine so far.  

[956 Worldwide 34737]

17 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Looks like it's warming up quickly?

Lower temps and rain next week but hard frost is over. 

[Gatorubet 30274]

3 hours ago, Walser said:

[RDCanecutter 26458]

On 3/23/2023 at 11:50 AM, tx 3 putt said:

😂😂😂😂

Some young Russian is going to kick his ass.

[Brisketexan 105178]

11 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

 

 

Mentioned this anecdote before, but the nordics have ALWAYS known that their enemy was Russia.  My lovely little Norwegian exchange daughter got called up to serve a year in the Norwegian air force, working base security.  When we asked what that meant on a daily basis, what was she doing, she just smiled and said "hunting Russians."

I gotta tell ya....knowing that they are facing countries full of absolutely beautiful, kind and decent people.....who will slit your throat while grinning the whole time....that should be a daunting fact.  The nordics won't fuck around.  They'll kill you while on skis with a goddamn BB gun.

2 hours ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

Going against my mantra that the key to happiness is low expectations but I think UKR understands this offensive needs to be the decisive moment in this war.

I think they’re going to bring the thunder and the Ruskies are going to tuck tail and run.

The alternative of a long slog IMO means bad news for UKR.

Agree on all points.

I hope like hell that Ukraine's plan is to bring and join the decisive battle over the next 120 days.

Because the alternative is indeed a long slog of attrition, and that's bad for UKR.  They need to fucking win this.  Throw everything you've got at the Russians.  Rise up behind the lines.  Kill them with sticks and rocks if need be.  Total war, without any hesitation, reservation, or mercy.  Don't stop.

[tx 3 putt 77234]

43 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Lower temps and rain next week but hard frost is over. 

Spring offensive is about to begin 

[Schulz2.0 28993]

 

[Brisketexan 105178]

Meloni is turning out to be a pleasant surprise.

[MissingInAction 25130]

18 hours ago, The Dog said:

 

 

 

 

[BamaATL 16593]

10 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Meloni is turning out to be a pleasant surprise.

I'm honestly fucking shocked at it.  If you'd have told me this six months ago I'd have looked at you like you were a weirdo.  Kudos to her.  

[BamaATL 16593]

Fly into our drones now assholes (translation - 2 Typhoon fighters escorting drones over the Black Sea)

 

[RDCanecutter 26458]

No matter how many Leopards are really in Ukraine, once shit starts the Russians will see even more of them. Old Soviet tank? That's a Leopard. Milk truck? Leopard. Ruined shed? Leopard.

[AUS-97HORN 11812]

1 minute ago, RDCanecutter said:

No matter how many Leopards are really in Ukraine, once shit starts the Russians will see even more of them. Old Soviet tank? That's a Leopard. Milk truck? Leopard. Ruined shed? Leopard.

[tx 3 putt 77234]

1 minute ago, RDCanecutter said:

No matter how many Leopards are really in Ukraine, once shit starts the Russians will see even more of them. Old Soviet tank? That's a Leopard. Milk truck? Leopard. Ruined shed? Leopard.

come on now, 3 days of Russian basic + watching one Steven Segal movie will pump out fighting machines !

[BamaATL 16593]

1 minute ago, RDCanecutter said:

No matter how many Leopards are really in Ukraine, once shit starts the Russians will see even more of them. Old Soviet tank? That's a Leopard. Milk truck? Leopard. Ruined shed? Leopard.

I think all that matters is that we've announced that something is there, not how many, and we (NATO inclusive) have been slow playing the actual counts.  I remember seeing all those videos of train after train with Bradleys in Poland and moving towards Ukraine, and I kept thinking, that sure seems more than the 50 we said. Soon.  

[Chad Fuck 17698]

22 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Fly into our drones now assholes (translation - 2 Typhoon fighters escorting drones over the Black Sea)

 

Escorting drones, or an RC-135?

[Superhero 8832]

15 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

I think all that matters is that we've announced that something is there, not how many, and we (NATO inclusive) have been slow playing the actual counts.  I remember seeing all those videos of train after train with Bradleys in Poland and moving towards Ukraine, and I kept thinking, that sure seems more than the 50 we said. Soon.  

And I wonder how many NATO troops are in the rear echelons helping and teaching how to maintain equipment; how many are closer to the front lines acting as “advisors”. 

[Pescado_Rojo 19427]

2 minutes ago, Superhero said:

And I wonder how many NATO troops are in the rear echelons helping and teaching how to maintain equipment; how many are closer to the front lines acting as “advisors”. 

I'd be more shocked to find out their WEREN'T 10th SFG guys knocking around the front than finding out that there were. Would love to know @InkaUtexas thoughts. 

[Gatorubet 30274]

Repost. Because I love it.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[The Dog 44073]

Ukraine's kit is getting newer and better; Russia's is getting older and worse. 

[The Dog 44073]

 

[Schulz2.0 28993]

6 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

[MillerEP 30492]

 

[MillerEP 30492]