Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[MillerEP 30454]

 

[SL Xpress 7513]

47 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Don't think they are active. Maybe some other elements. SF is there to train, not fight. Perhaps a forward team at the Embassy. In Poland? For sure. 

Just want to add this thread is amazing. Good posts, good analysis and thanks to all who are contributing. Been on the road for the past few weeks so just catching up. 

Back at you.

I'm very appreciative of everyone contributing to this thread. Too many to name, I'll just forget someone. I enjoy reading everyone's thoughts on the conflict. And about their brother's thoughts, too!

[Brisketexan 105095]

Here's a salient tweet from the Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs about why it's important not to allow Russian athletes to compete in the Paris Olympics even under a neutral flag:
 

There’s a solution.
Kill them. Each of them. Kill them dead. Bingo bango, no more conundrum about whether they get to come to Paris or not.
Ride with the outlaws, you die with the outlaws.

[YGIFS 19450]

21 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

 

I don't want to jinx it, but there are multiple warheads in Kursk.  Putting munitions just a few km closer in Belarus tacitly says, "Our shit sucks so bad, every km counts at this point 'cause we don't know what the fuck this stuff can do anymore."  

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

Wasn’t Xi supposed to speak with Zelensky shortly after his Moscow visit?

Moscow visit happens and now he’s refusing to speak with him?

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

Random question: Are there polls tracking French support for this war?

[SL Xpress 7513]

12 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

Random question: Are there polls tracking French support for this war?

Yes. I'll see if I can find some. There are polls for pretty much every European countries, and a lot of non western ones as well. 

Paris has a lot of domestic politics that are playing a bigger role than Ukraine right now. 

Edit:

Here's an article about the presidential race, although not specifically about French support for Ukraine specifically.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/28/france-election-2022-macron-heads-polls-but-ukraine-overshadows-the-debate.html

Spoiler

The French election is just two weeks away — and Russia’s invasion is overshadowing the vote

PUBLISHED MON, MAR 28 20226:39 AM EDTUPDATED MON, MAR 28 20226:41 AM EDT

Silvia Amaro@SILVIA_AMARO

SHAREShare Article via FacebookShare Article via TwitterShare Article via LinkedInShare Article via Email

KEY POINTS

• Incumbent Emmanuel Macron has been criticized for being absent from the political campaign as he deals with the security crisis.
• “People would not expect him or like him to be absent, to be absorbed by rallies, campaigning himself so basically he needs to be President,” France’s European affairs minister said.
• Opinion polls give Macron 28% of the public support in the first round, due on April 10.

 

The first round of the French Presidential Election 2022 takes place on Sunday 10 April.

Sopa Images | Lightrocket | Getty Images

With the first round of voting in France’s presidential election less than two weeks away, the political debate is heavily influenced by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Far-right political leaders have suffered a setback in opinion polls for their links to Russia’s President Vladimir Putin while incumbent Emmanuel Macron has been criticized for being absent from the political campaign as he tries to deal with the geopolitical crisis on the continent. And, above all, the war in Ukraine has pushed up energy and food prices across Europe — fueling concerns also in France about the cost of living.

 

“This campaign is strange but special in a way,” Clement Beaune, France’s minister for European affairs and supporter of Macron told CNBC’s Charlotte Reed.

He added that when Macron was elected for the first time in 2017, people did not know him or his platform. “Now the French people know him. People know what his DNA is about,” he said, explaining why the president has not been campaigning as much as five years ago.

At the same time, he added, “people would not expect him or like him to be absent, to be absorbed by rallies, campaigning himself so basically he needs to be president.”

Macron is the European leader that speaks with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin the most and has tried to act as a bridge between Moscow and Kyiv and attempts to reach a ceasefire.

Opinion polls predict that Macron will receive 28% of the public’s support in the first round of voting, due to take place on April 10. This is followed by anti-immigrant party leader Marine Le Pen at 19% and by the far-left political veteran Jean-Luc Melenchon at 14%, according to Poll of Polls.

 

WATCH NOW

VIDEO02:57

We’re at the end of ‘naive globalisation,’ French Finance Minister Le Maire says

 

The same polls suggested prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24 that Macron was going to win the first round with 25% and Le Pen would come second with 17% of the votes. The European security crisis that ensued pushed public support for Macron to 30% before coming down to the current 28%.

“Emmanuel Macron maintains a clear lead over his challengers. However, the initial boost in support for him after Putin started his invasion of Ukraine has largely worn off,” Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg, said in a note Monday.

Nonetheless, the expectation for now is that Macron will be re-elected after a second round of voting on April 24.

“Although the pandemic has slowed down his reform momentum temporarily and contributed to a significant shift away from fiscal consolidation, we maintain our long-held call that France is heading for a golden decade of faster trend growth,” Schmieding also said, based on the economic reforms that Macron has put forward both as economy minister and then as president of France.

For the far-right, the tables have turned in the wake of the invasion. Eric Zemmour, a new face in French political scene, dropped 4 percentage points in opinion polls and is now seen to be outside of the top three candidates in the first round.

Zemmour has said that Ukrainian refugees with links to France should receive visas, but defended different rules for asylum seekers based on their religion. Prior to becoming a candidate, Zemmour also said that he would like a “French Putin” to lead the nation.

Marine Le Pen, running for a third time in France’s presidential vote, has regained some political support for her comments on the cost of living and her more moderate comments on the European Union, but she also faced an initial embarrassment in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Her anti-immigrant party not only received funds from Russian banks, back in 2014, but she also printed a number of campaign flyers with a photo of herself and President Putin — which have now reportedly been binned.

“The (European) skepticism is not the same as it was five years ago,” Beaune told CNBC in comparison with the 2017 election.

The deep reality is that people want Europe to survive, especially now against a backdrop war, he added.

Macron is once again campaigning on a pro-European platform and has used the war in Ukraine to get backing from other European leaders for some of his long-term policy aims, notably a more independent security policy for the bloc.

88% of French voters said they are worried about the situation in Ukraine in a poll shared by Ifop Monday. However, only 40% of respondents said that this would likely influence their vote in the first round of the French election.

 

Edited March 25, 2023 by SL Xpress

[MillerEP 30454]

 

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

2 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

Yes. I'll see if I can find some. There are polls for pretty much every European countries, and a lot of non western ones as well. 

Paris has a lot of domestic politics that are playing a bigger role than Ukraine right now. 

Yes that’s what I’m wondering about…would love to see anything you find.

[SL Xpress 7513]

3 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

 

It's interesting to me that on a long enough time line, the diminishment of Russia could be a disadvantage to the West because it empowers China, and China under their current system of government is a bigger threat over the long term than Russia is. At the same time in the near term Russia has made a full scale invasion of a neighboring European country, and so this makes me laugh. China is going to take complete advantage of Russia's situation. No doubt about it. That's what I was telling a bunch of people a couple of days ago who simply watch the news and were pseudo fearful of China and Russia "getting together." There's no getting together here. There's China preparing Russia for butt sex with no lube, and not even a reach around. 

[Parliament 14255]

1 hour ago, 956 Worldwide said:

https://www.511tactical.com/eu-en/mens/mens-pants/cargo-pants.html
 

 

Not everyone who wears 511's is a douchebag.  I am of course, but I know people who are not.

[SmokeyTheBear 5562]

53 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

 

Yes, take our culture to share with your people. That'll show us. 

[SL Xpress 7513]

15 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

Yes that’s what I’m wondering about…would love to see anything you find.

Here's a good one from yougov.org

I'd prefer to see something that shows changes over time, if there are any, but it still shows how high the indifference is about the war among the French compared to other European countries:

https://today.yougov.com/topics/international/articles-reports/2023/02/24/one-year-european-and-american-attitudes-war-ukrai

I should be clear that while I think of polling as important, I also feel like they're widely over remarked upon. They're treated almost like scorecards most of the time, when there are way too many variables that goes into composing them. Nonetheless, I do like reading about them, even if I don't put as much importance in them as others do. 

The best ones are the organizations that conduct polls on a consistent basis around certain topics, and ask the same questions each time. I like seeing how views change according to these polls. It's much more informative to me.

Spoiler

One year on: European and American attitudes to the war in Ukraine

 

Matthew SmithHead of Data Journalism

February 24, 2023, 2:22 AM GMT-6

SHARE

 Printable version

Nations are at odds over peace negotiations

With today marking the first anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, a new YouGov Eurotrack and accompanying US survey reveals that Western publics are at odds on some key issues surrounding the war.

One year into the war, should the West encourage negotiations or support Ukraine until Russia quits?

At the Munich Security Conference this weekend British prime minister Rishi Sunak made clear that the West’s approach should be to enable Ukraine to win the war, with French president Emmanuel Macron also saying he wants Russia to be defeated in Ukraine.

It is in Sweden, however that people are most to say the west should support Ukraine until such a time as Russia withdraws. This is perhaps unsurprising given that Sweden has been sufficiently concerned at Russian aggression to finally apply for NATO membership. Almost two thirds (63%) of Swedes would prefer to take this approach, compared to 18% who would prefer the west encourage a negotiated peace to end the war, even if this left Russia in control of parts of Ukraine.

Neighbouring Denmark also prefers to take an approach that would see Russia driven out of Ukraine (56%) as would Britain (53%) and the USA (by 46% to 24%).

By contrast, people in Spain, Germany and France are divided, while Italians prefer a negotiated peace, even if Russia still controls some parts of Ukraine, by a wide margin (47% to 29%).

One year into the Ukraine war, how much do Western Europeans and Americans care who wins?

There are likewise great differences between countries regarding how far people care who wins the war in Ukraine. Swedes care the most, with 81% saying it matters to them “a great deal” or “a fair amount” who wins the war, including a majority (54%) who care a great deal.

At the other end of the scale, only 48% of Italians say the outcome of the war matters much to them.

Relatively few in any nation surveyed actively want Russia to win – Germans (13%), French people and Italians (both 11%) are the most likely to say so. While most people in each country want Ukraine to win, the numbers differ significantly, ranging from 88% in Denmark and 84% in Sweden to 58% in France and 56% in Italy.

 

A year into the war, what kind of support are Western Europeans willing to provide Ukraine?

While most across the West want Ukraine to win, that does not equate to willingness to provide additional support. Given the option to maintain, increase, or reduce aid to the beleaguered nation, the most common preference in each country surveyed is for the former, at 36-51%.

Swedes are the most likely to want to send more support, at 33%. By contrast, Italians are the most likely to want to reduce support, at 31%.

When it comes to providing specific types of support for Ukraine, willingness has either fallen or maintained static since the summer in the main Western European nations.

Imposing further economic sanctions on Russian interests in their country remains the most popular option for each nation. Seven in ten Britons (73%) and Spaniards (72%) are willing to support this, virtually unchanged from last time. Half of Germans say likewise, again, basically the same as in the summer.

However, support for further sanctions has fallen in France from 62% to 50%, and in Italy from 56% to 48%.

The sending of further weapons and supplies, around which most of the recent debate about aid has centred, garners the second highest levels of support in most of the countries surveyed, including at least half of Britons (65%), Spaniards (57%) and Germans (52%).

Italians are the exception, with only 33% willing to see further military aid passed to Ukraine, although they had already been reluctant in our summer poll.

France has experienced most of the largest declines in support. Aside from the aforementioned attitudes towards economic sanctions, there have also been double-digits drops in support for: Targeted media in Russian-speaking parts of Ukraine encouraging them not to support the Russian leadership or armed forces (down 13pts, to 46%) and providing support to domestic political opponents of the Russian leadership (down 11pts, to 45%).

There has also been a notable slump in Italian support for cyber attacks on Russian military capabilities (down 13pts, to 35%), and German willingness to send additional troops to support NATO members in Eastern Europe (down 12pts, to 36%).

Across the five nations, Spain and Britain are typically the most likely to support any given measure to help Ukraine.

One year into the Ukraine war, which side do Europeans think has the advantage?

The general sense among Western European publics is that the current situation in Ukraine is stalemate, rather than one side having an advantage.

Spain is a notable exception, however, with 48% believing Russia to have the advantage currently, compared to 32% who feel neither side has the upper hand and 6% who think Ukraine is winning.

This is consistent with findings from our previous poll in the summer, where Spaniards were again significantly more likely than other nationalities to believe Russia held the advantage. At that time all countries were a great deal more likely to think Russia was winning than do so now.

With the war one year old, Europeans tend to think the conflict has at least another year to go

Unsurprisingly given the plurality belief the current situation is a stalemate is the general view that the war will still be ongoing a year from now. Views in Spain are in line with those elsewhere in this regard, with 48-60% in each country expecting the fighting to be continuing in February 2024.

This was likewise by far the most common view in our June/July polling.

See the full results here

 

[Parliament 14255]

9 minutes ago, SmokeyTheBear said:

Yes, take our culture to share with your people. That'll show us. 

No need to take copies, Russia.  You can have the Nickelback original recordings.

[InkaUtexas 25907]

A fun group to follow on Twitter. Has been posted on here before, but just a reminder. Dude and his volunteers doing real work. Damn, wish we had him at Kinsolving. 

 

[atomheartbevo 89648]

1 hour ago, MissingInAction said:

I think zelensky is some counter Intel strategery.

Yeah, they keep downplaying everything.  Not sure if it's to make the Russians wonder about what they actually have (or maybe make the Russians blunder into something), or if it's to make the Russians think they aren't ready to launch anything just yet.

[BamaATL 16593]

Hmm

 

 

[Nivek 16923]

They have some kind of "Heroes Wife" project going on where they take portraitsof the wives of their "heroes" that are serving in Ukraine, and predictably some of the photos will end up being photos of widows

Such at this one
[/url] It's kind of weird, like she's already hitting up RussianWidows.com or whatever

Bottom right is advertising not mourning.

[NAVY 6740]

4 hours ago, The Dog said:

 

From the comments 

 

[Brisketexan 105095]

 
It's interesting to me that on a long enough time line, the diminishment of Russia could be a disadvantage to the West because it empowers China, and China under their current system of government is a bigger threat over the long term than Russia is. At the same time in the near term Russia has made a full scale invasion of a neighboring European country, and so this makes me laugh. China is going to take complete advantage of Russia's situation. No doubt about it. That's what I was telling a bunch of people a couple of days ago who simply watch the news and were pseudo fearful of China and Russia "getting together." There's no getting together here. There's China preparing Russia for butt sex with no lube, and not even a reach around. 

100% this. I think on China has made multiple strategic blunders as of late. It’s approach to Russia is not one of them. It’s going to take full advantage of Russian weakness and desperation.

[Gatorubet 30211]

3 hours ago, SL Xpress said:

That's what I was telling a bunch of people a couple of days ago who simply watch the news and were pseudo fearful of China and Russia "getting together." There's no getting together here. There's China preparing Russia for butt sex with no lube, and not even a reach around. 

I think that this sums up the situation so far pretty well:

[nbmishoid 949]

3 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

There’s a solution.
Kill them. Each of them. Kill them dead. Bingo bango, no more conundrum about whether they get to come to Paris or not.
Ride with the outlaws, you die with the outlaws.

My man.  (Apologies to Denzel)

[Schulz2.0 28951]

 

[Deej 76759]

3 hours ago, SL Xpress said:

There's China preparing Russia for butt sex with no lube, and not even a reach around. 

So in this scenario, Russia is @NowThis

[Parliament 14255]

Russia is a 2 year old ewe lost in College Station.

[YGIFS 19450]

 i think of that scene in "The Hunt for Red October" when Jonesy was hearing the Russian sailors singing a song about rising up against the United States of America.  How we would never allow a people's song against our government to be sung on our own soil/seas.  And here we are again.  Go Ukraine.

[Armybrat 40832]

Quote

Russians fire three times more shells daily than Ukrainians. Zelenskyy

Maybe that is true, but I thought the Ukrainian/NATO artillery was supposed to be much more accurate than the Rooskies’ older stuff. So shouldn’t that “advantage” be a wash?

[atomheartbevo 89648]

21 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

Maybe that is true, but I thought the Ukrainian/NATO artillery was supposed to be much more accurate than the Rooskies’ older stuff. So shouldn’t that “advantage” be a wash?

It is, but also Ukraine maybe putting that out there to screw with the Russians and make them wonder if there is a shortage of ammo and heavy equipment.

[Auto Driller 2504]

Putin expected / hoped that China would pledge to support him militarily in addition to increasing economic and political support. What he fails - or refuses - to see is that it doesn’t really benefit China for Russia to “win”. It wouldn’t be a net negative for them, per se, but ultimately it doesn’t benefit Xi if Putin manages to capture <random Ukrainian city>. What DOES benefit him is for Putin to become more and more dependent on China as their only major trading partner and access to the outside world. The longer Russia is engaged in a fight in Ukraine, the more one-sided the power balance in the relationship becomes. Not to mention that it keeps NATO’s eyes on the west rather than the east. Xi certainly is not going to risk western sanctions and his own military readiness by depleting his stocks of munitions so that Putin can realize his fantasy of rebuilding the USSR.
 

From a strategic perspective, the best thing russia could do for themselves is retreat from Ukraine NOW, turn over war criminals, and begin the (multi-decade) process of trying to repair ties with Europe. Because China is not going to treat them well.

[InkaUtexas 25907]

Let Russia get bent over and fucked. No lube. 

[BamaATL 16593]

 

[atomheartbevo 89648]

58 minutes ago, Auto Driller said:

The longer Russia is engaged in a fight in Ukraine, the more one-sided the power balance in the relationship becomes. Not to mention that it keeps NATO’s eyes on the west rather than the east. Xi certainly is not going to risk western sanctions and his own military readiness by depleting his stocks of munitions so that Putin can realize his fantasy of rebuilding the USSR.

If Russia actually does have all of the hundreds of thousands of recently mobilized troops serving in Ukraine, and they can't even take Bakhmut, Xi has to be licking his lips at that prospect. That means that Putin is going to continue to completely wreck his military (which could benefit Chinese defense contractors picking up Russian contracts). 

If/when Russia gets pushed out, if Putin is overthrown (or dies by accidentally falling out of a window), whoever comes in to replace him will probably be hoping to cut more deals with China, since I can't imagine that the Russia people will be keen on rejoining Europe, nor do I think Europe will be keen on having them.

And China is probably keeping a very close eye on Russia's activities in Africa, given the importance that China places on Africa going forward.  They can't be too happy with Wagner refocusing on Africa.

[SmokeyTheBear 5562]

53 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Let Russia get bent over and fucked. No lube. 

 

Just cause

Edited March 26, 2023 by SmokeyTheBear

[Schulz2.0 28951]

 

[BamaATL 16593]

19 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

If Russia actually does have all of the hundreds of thousands of recently mobilized troops serving in Ukraine, and they can't even take Bakhmut, Xi has to be licking his lips at that prospect. That means that Putin is going to continue to completely wreck his military (which could benefit Chinese defense contractors picking up Russian contracts). 

If/when Russia gets pushed out, if Putin is overthrown (or dies by accidentally falling out of a window), whoever comes in to replace him will probably be hoping to cut more deals with China, since I can't imagine that the Russia people will be keen on rejoining Europe, nor do I think Europe will be keen on having them.

And China is probably keeping a very close eye on Russia's activities in Africa, given the importance that China places on Africa going forward.  They can't be too happy with Wagner refocusing on Africa.

No one can tell the future on all this, but to me this will ultimately lead to a far more fractured picture of Russia (or more appropriately what used to be Russia out of all this).  This of course will further the complicate the end game.  While it's true that Xi seeks to exploit what he can out of existing Russia for as long as possible, it's pretty clear he is also looking to court previous break away Soviet Republics with an eye on new breakaway republics that will emerge.  In a lot of ways, this makes geographic sense from middle to northern Asia.  This isn't a just a matter of exploitation, it's also pragmatic.  If say British Columbia broke away from mainland Canada 20 plus years ago, we would of course eventually attempt to court influence in that region over time.  Under that scenario, if we knew or thought it was highly likely that Ontario was heading down the same road, while we wouldn't directly appeal to the future Ontario government, we sure as hell would up the charm offensive on British Columbia, even if they had fairly good terms with Canada.  In some ways (yes this is a simplification) this all makes great sense; if that's how its going to be or we sensed it was going to be, why wouldn't we want them to be in our sphere of influence?  Now you can make the argument that China's entire plan is pure exploitation, and I would concede that this is certainly their track record, we also have to at least concede that it makes pragmatic sense on other levels.  

Russians east of the Urals (and in some places further east) will have a pull towards wanting to be tied to Europe.  While we don't want to really envision an acceptance of them in any way in their current form, the reality is that in long term we will do so; with the big caveat being that the Russian government in its current form ceases to exist.  Some of what is now southern Russia will likely be break away republics in their own right with region ties to central Asian countries like Georgia. 

A big question is going to be what happens to Moscow, which right now is fully dependent on having half the continent under its thumb to operate as a financial hub.  If they lose this ability, Moscow might become the poorest metro area in the western world (and yes that would include Haiti).  So you might end up with a scenario of metro Moscow (40 million people) instantly going from being the belle of the Russian ball to being the destitute scorned former trophy wife of the continent.  What happens then, I don't know.  

[BamaATL 16593]

No idea if this is real or not, but my lord, I'd rather ride my lawn mower into to combat than this shit

It looks like truck rip offs of Model T's rolling down the road.  

[atomheartbevo 89648]

If anybody is curious about that Soviet Storm - WWII in the East, it's on Roku, Tubi, Freeverse, and Pluto.  I may have to check it out.

Also, Charlie Wilson's War is coming to Netflix in a week or two.

[Gatorubet 30211]

Holy Fuck!  is that a Katyusha ramp?

You are now talking vintage World War II. You did not want to be at the receiving end of a couple dozen of these, as they are inaccurate as fuck -but if you fire enough of them you’re likely hit what you’re aiming at. 

I understand that they took an hour to reload, and because the Rockets are on the ramp, and not in a tube, their exhaust is a giant smoke cloud that could be seen by any artillery in the area, which is why they are usually attached to some vehicle, allowing them to shoot and scoot.   I do not care what era, if you are in infantry man on the receiving end, you will crap your pants.

The range on those things is less than 4 miles, so if they get off one barrage, it will probably be their last.  If this thing is really going to Ukraine, my mind is blown.

[atomheartbevo 89648]

4 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

, and because the Rockets are on the ramp

So one little drone dropping a small grenade/mortar on top of one of those will blow up the whole fucking thing....and possibly nearby vehicles.

[WhatTheBuck 28776]

45 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

No idea if this is real or not, but my lord, I'd rather ride my lawn mower into to combat than this shit

It looks like truck rip offs of Model T's rolling down the road.  

[Gatorubet 30211]

39 minutes ago, WhatTheBuck said:

Boris, you deal with the Nazi Douglas. I will deal with blonde Hungarian..

[MillerEP 30454]

 

[Gatorubet 30211]

29 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

“Vlad??? Contain…wait, what? Look, I can’t talk now. I’m really busy meeting with all of the heads of ‘Stans.  Let’s talk tho…<click>”

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

5 hours ago, BamaATL said:

No idea if this is real or not, but my lord, I'd rather ride my lawn mower into to combat than this shit

It looks like truck rip offs of Model T's rolling down the road.  

Russia loves wwii parades. Nobody is bringing that stuff to Ukraine.  

[statsman 5457]

12 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

It is, but also Ukraine maybe putting that out there to screw with the Russians and make them wonder if there is a shortage of ammo and heavy equipment.

I think the odds are pretty good that Zelensky is telling the truth- Ukraine needs a lot more shells. They can’t produce them as needed and are dependent on the west, who allots them piecemeal. 

[BamaATL 16593]

3 hours ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Russia loves wwii parades. Nobody is bringing that stuff to Ukraine.  

I'd agree, save two things, why are they moving them at night for a parade?  The T-54s are confirmed deployed, these are about 10 to 15 years older, at this point I can't discount it.  It's absurd on its face, but that doesn't seem to deter the Russians.  

49 minutes ago, statsman said:

I think the odds are pretty good that Zelensky is telling the truth- Ukraine needs a lot more shells. They can’t produce them as needed and are dependent on the west, who allots them piecemeal. 

There are 2 parts to this.  1. Ukraine does need more shells, no doubt about it.  Even if the counteroffensive is successful and as big as we all hope, I don't think it ends with Russians out of Crimea or the Donbas.  2.  He has to be looking towards not just six weeks from now but long term, and ultimately part of his job is to lobby for more, not just until the conflict ends, but until Ukraine's long term security is met.  Short of a NATO treaty signing and stations being placed in Ukraine he should keep asking for more, and he will.  

[Slacks 6819]

On 3/24/2023 at 2:47 PM, atomheartbevo said:

They have some kind of "Heroes Wife" project going on where they take portraitsof the wives of their "heroes" that are serving in Ukraine, and predictably some of the photos will end up being photos of widows

Such at this one

 

[atomheartbevo 89648]

 

[atomheartbevo 89648]

US discussing working with OSINT community

 

[atomheartbevo 89648]

Interesting if true,

Making rounds in the Russian and Ukrainian internet today is an alleged leaked recording of a phone call between a notable Russian music producer Iosif Prigozhin (not Wagner's Prigozhin) and Farkhad Akhmedov, an Azerbaijani businessman and a former politician in Russia.

In this 35-minute call, both men who appear to be friends discuss the current affairs in Russia and slam Putin and Russian leadership, amply using curse words.

This segment pieced together and translated by us contains the juiciest parts. In the rest of the call, men complain about sanctions, which affected both personally.

While Mr. Prigozhin denied that this call happened and claimed it was a deepfake made using neural networks, he later commented by saying "Let's start with the fact that there is such a thing as private life. People in a private conversation can talk about anything", but stated he "couldn't remember such a call happening.

The Russian audience does not appear as convinced, however - a poll ran by one prominent Russian separatist Oleg Tsaryov on Telegram showed 58% believed it was real, and only 13% thought it was a deep fake. While the call is not informative by itself, if real, it could indicate the mood among some elites in Russia.