Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[BamaATL 16593]

44 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Interesting if true,

Making rounds in the Russian and Ukrainian internet today is an alleged leaked recording of a phone call between a notable Russian music producer Iosif Prigozhin (not Wagner's Prigozhin) and Farkhad Akhmedov, an Azerbaijani businessman and a former politician in Russia.

In this 35-minute call, both men who appear to be friends discuss the current affairs in Russia and slam Putin and Russian leadership, amply using curse words.

This segment pieced together and translated by us contains the juiciest parts. In the rest of the call, men complain about sanctions, which affected both personally.

While Mr. Prigozhin denied that this call happened and claimed it was a deepfake made using neural networks, he later commented by saying "Let's start with the fact that there is such a thing as private life. People in a private conversation can talk about anything", but stated he "couldn't remember such a call happening.

The Russian audience does not appear as convinced, however - a poll ran by one prominent Russian separatist Oleg Tsaryov on Telegram showed 58% believed it was real, and only 13% thought it was a deep fake. While the call is not informative by itself, if real, it could indicate the mood among some elites in Russia.

Good and bad in it, they care that Russia and Russians are fucked, they didn't seem remotely concerned about the innocents the Russians have killed.  They care about their billions, but laugh at the fact that half their country uses wood burning stoves.  If they go missing or get too close to a window wouldn't break my heart. 

[Parliament 14254]

Do the rules of gentlemenly conduct that our CIA abides by allow us to whack some of these guys?  To sew discord in Russia or just because it feels good.

Edited March 26, 2023 by Parliament

[atomheartbevo 89644]

6 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Do the rules of gentlemenly conduct that our CIA abides by allow us to whack some of these guys?  To sew discord in Russia or just because it feels good.

The CIA probably doesn't have the high-level skills to push people out of windows in high-rise buildings like the Russian's do.

I expect in the next few months that we will see more upper-level Russians dying in mysterious ways, as Putin can use their deaths to say "they were screwing up our military by their corruption and they were stealing from the Russian people and the Russian army".

Given that he controls the media, it could buy him more goodwill with the public.

[InkaUtexas 25898]

Maybe he falls out a window. Oh wait, he lives in a bunker. dammit, collapse the bunker! 

[Gatorubet 30202]

16 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:

So - 1/3 of their unit is killed or wounded, they have no legitimate orders. Their military IDs and documents have been taken from them, and if they try to withdraw from the meat grinder, there are backing units who have threatened to kill them.  In fact, they think they will be killed simply to hide the fact of soldiers who go to hospital having money stolen and those same commanders take bribes to keep people from the front.

This call is perfect. It exemplifies everything about Russian corruption, incompetence and inability to ever produce a modern victorious army.

And I have to think when the Ukrainian offensive does start, will these very guys be the ones to die fighting after the way they’ve been treated?   If this is an example of their morale, and if their apparent inability to speak to anyone in command is accurate, I have to put my money on Ukraine in the offensive.   When this ends, Ukrainian soldiers will be relaxing in Crimea discussing what they liked about the war.

Edited March 26, 2023 by Gatorubet

[Gatorubet 30202]

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

The Russian audience does not appear as convinced, however - a poll ran by one prominent Russian separatist Oleg Tsaryov on Telegram showed 58% believed it was real, and only 13% thought it was a deep fake. While the call is not informative by itself, if real, it could indicate the mood among some elites in Russia.

I would bet that the 58% who believe it was real echoes their own silent, cannot-be-said opinions of how the war is going. Even the dumbest Russian has access to the fact that Russia could not take Kyiv, nor could it hold all the territory that Russia claimed to take over.   They were promised a spring offensive and they were told Bakhmut would be captured.  Yet there is no news of successes in Ukraine, only news of the arrival of many hundreds of modern western main battle tanks and even more armored personnel carrier’s with impressive chain cannons.  And yeah, more jets.

They know all of this. They can’t talk about it without serving 10 years in jail.  But I have to think there’s a correlation between the number of people who believe the call was genuine - and the number of people who think it is true because the substance/content of the call is also genuine. 

[Schulz2.0 28951]

 

[Gatorubet 30202]

Translation of the Estonian interview discussed above;

 

 

Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov, who gave an interview to "Ukraine Studio", said that the frontline city of Bahmut still remains as a fortress and that this will give Ukraine time to prepare for the counteroffensive, which should begin soon.

This week, the European Union decided to give Ukraine one million shells over 12 months. This is clearly an important moment. What does this mean for Ukraine?

At the initiative of our Estonian partners, especially under the leadership of my friend Hanno Pevkur, the Minister of Defense of Estonia, we came up with this very good idea to convince our European partners at the Stockholm conference in Sweden that we need more ammunition for the Ukrainian forces. We have to defend ourselves against the Russians, deter them, especially on the eastern front. Then we proceed with the counterattack. This means we need more ammunition to break through their defense line. This is how we save the lives of our soldiers. That's why help is so important. This war is a war of resources. We have the resources of the civilized world on our side, including European countries. Therefore, the decision made is very important. I would say crucial.

Would this initiative have been realized without Estonia's help?

All the projects that have become part of improving our efficiency and combat capability have started under the leadership of one minister or one country. For example, the plan to give us 155 mm caliber artillery systems came from the United States. The donation of tanks was initiated by our friends in Poland. The British, Americans and Germans then came up with the plan. In this case, it was indeed the initiative of our Estonian friends, brothers, when they first uttered these important sentences: "Ukraine needs more weapons. Ukraine needs more ammunition. We can do it, equip them with the help of European countries." This is how this initiative was born thanks to Estonia's lobbying work. And now Mr. Josep Borrell has also announced the decision.

Is a million shells enough? How long will they last?

This is not the first time I hear this question. The answer is very clear. If there is a war in your country, there are not enough weapons. That means we need more and more until we win this war. It would be a victory for Ukraine and the entire civilized world.

NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg said that Ukraine uses 4,000-7,000 artillery shells per day. And Russia's 20,000 shells. Why are these numbers so different?

For two reasons. The Russians have more ammunition in their warehouses. We have to think about the appropriate use of our ammunition. Secondly, we also use NATO standard cannons like caliber 155. This means that these cannon systems are more accurate. We can use them more specifically. We use two projectiles instead of ten. They use the systems of the former USSR with a caliber of 152 or 122. This means that they have to use ten shells in one square. We can handle both in the same territory. This means we have to think carefully. This is not a war between a small Soviet army and a larger Soviet army. They are two different armies. We are more creative with more modern equipment and thinking. That's why we try to use less ammunition.

At the same time, the use of munitions currently outnumbers their production in the West. Worried that the West doesn't have enough resources to supply you?

I'm sure the West has the resources. They have an industry. They need to start production. They must order their industry to start producing ammunition because it is very important for the war. We fight for European values. We are the eastern shield of Europe and NATO. We are de facto already a NATO country, because a large part of our ammunition and weapons are from NATO countries. The ability to cooperate with NATO countries has increased. I hope that in the near future there will be a decision from the NATO countries to invite us to join NATO.

You say that Ukraine is already a de factomember of NATO. Has NATO let you down during this war?  

I think NATO countries understand that we have to end this war in Ukraine. Instead of the scenario where Russia continues to move towards the Baltic states and Poland and tries to rebuild the Berlin Wall as it was in Europe during the Soviet Union. This means that we must end the war with our victory. It would be a joint victory for Ukraine and the civilized world. Especially for European countries. This means that NATO's policy is based on the strategy that was determined at the Madrid summit. In this strategy, we saw the text that the main threat to NATO allies is Russia in the next ten years. This means that we must fight this threat that threatens NATO allies.

Do you feel that all NATO members feel the same way? In Estonia, we understand this very well. What about other NATO members?

To be honest, I think that one NATO member is not very active or on the side of Ukraine. I think it will take them some time to change their attitude. Other countries are on our side. 29 countries, plus Sweden and Finland, which hopefully will become members of NATO.

You are implying that Hungary does not agree with others?

Yes.

Let's talk about giving planes. Ukraine receives MiG aircraft from Poland and Slovakia. Some you have already received. What is their effect on the battlefield?

MiG-29 aircraft will strengthen the Ukrainian Air Force, but we are still trying to convince our partners that we need modern aircraft platforms. Be it Falcon or Gripen or any other type of aircraft. The MiG-29 has a visual range of only 60 kilometers with its radars, a firing range of only 30 kilometers. For example, modern Russian aircraft, fighters such as the Su-35, have a radar sight range of over 200 kilometers and a firing range of over 100 kilometers. Therefore, we need modern fighter jets for Ukraine to become part of our air defense systems. That's why we remain optimistic and try to talk to our partners that pilot training must start now, because it takes time. Similarly, time was spent on artillery systems and multiple rocket launchers, tanks and air defense systems such as NASAMS, Patriot and others.

But would modern western airplanes help you at all? Does pilot training last long?

When I first discussed the Patriot systems with the partners, I was told that it was impossible because the systems are very expensive and the training would take a year, minimum ten months, but then the decision was made and we found that the training could be done in ten weeks. Therefore, I am absolutely confident that we will have the first Patriot systems in operation in April. This means that our pilots can also start training immediately. And that's what needs to be done.

You have already received some Leopard tanks. When will we actually see them at the front?

You will see them on the counter-attack according to the decision of our General Staff. It is already being planned in several directions. It depends on what the most suitable moment is, how they decide. Also, everything depends on weather conditions. In spring, our land is very wet. Only tracked vehicles can be used. I think we can see them in April-May.

Your soldiers have already practiced dealing with them. How do they rate Leopard tanks? How good are they?

They must have made such a comparison that Žiguli and Mercedes. Such a difference.

This week, President Zelensky visited the Bahmut front. Why did he undertake such a dangerous journey?

My president, when this full-scale invasion began, responded to all critics that he didn't need taxis, he needed guns. I don't need a means of escape, I need armaments. Our president is very brave. For him, visiting our heroes, our defenders at the front is a completely normal activity. It wasn't the first time he had done this. He also went to Lyssychansk, Severodonetsk, the southern front. He will continue to visit our soldiers. He understands that he must personally be able to look them in the eye, talk to them, shake their hand and reward them in some way. He can thank them on behalf of all Ukrainians and all Europeans, because they are truly Europe's shield in the east.

How tired are the men at the front?

Of course he's tired. The war has lasted over a year. It is a psychologically and physically difficult process. That is why we are trying to organize a rotation of soldiers. But this is war: The standard of living is different, the conditions are different. For example, I can only sleep 3-4 hours a day. It has become a habit.

We have heard optimistic messages from Bahmut. How optimistic are you that something will change there in a favorable direction for Ukraine?

For example, the Russians started attacking Bahmut last May. They continue to attack without significant results. Bahmut still stands as a fortress. In this area, we have reduced the offensive capabilities of the Russians. This helps our forces keep the front line stable and gives us time to prepare for a counter-offensive. Therefore, I see that the Russians also have a shortage of ammunition. They are tired too. They have experienced very heavy losses, there are many dead and wounded. It is normal for them to lose at least five hundred soldiers every day. As killed and wounded. It means that every day brings closer our victory and their defeat. 

A corruption scandal broke out in your ministry regarding food supplies for the soldiers. What is the current status of the investigation into this case?

It was more of a public corruption scandal. There is no evidence of corruption. Rather, there was a discussion about the efficient use of money in buying food for the soldiers, but during this year no one complained about the quality or quantity of food. Of course, I have a heritage in the ministry from the times of the USSR - 30 years. As a minister, I started carrying out reforms in 2021, but two and a half months later, a full-scale invasion began. Then I had to focus on providing weapons to the troops, not on reforms. It was a lesson for me that I have to continue with the reforms in the ministry, simultaneously with the war. We do it, we continue the reforms, because it is important for the future of our country. This is important for our future as a member of the European community.

There have also been financial problems in Estonia in connection with Ukrainian aid organizations. What do you think the effect will be on people who want to help Ukraine? And how would you encourage people to still help and financially support Ukraine?

I think for two reasons. First of all, the budget of Ukraine cannot cover all our needs. We try to spend money on military needs. For ammunition, weapons and other equipment of the troops. In addition, I think that Estonians, our brother nation, want to see our victory with us. To be partners in this victory. This means that we need any kind of help from Estonia. For example hospitals, drones for our military units or humanitarian aid and so on. That is why I think it is very important that we fight for European values. We are fighting for a European security architecture. As a country with democratic values, we fight against autocracy, against Russia.

This week, Vladimir Putin met with Chinese President Xi Jinping. What is Ukraine's position on Russia-China relations?

We have a very powerful anti-Kremlin club or anti-Kremlin coalition. I call it the Ramstein Club. Because in Ramstein, more than 52 countries are members of this coalition. The Russians see this and have realized that they too need to find partners for their coalition. They have a coalition with Iran and their drones. They're trying to convince North Korea to join their coalition, and they're still trying to convince China, because China is a big country with huge resources. This means that Russia's resources will be depleted and they will no longer have the ability to continue open war without partners, but I am an optimist and think that China will use Russia's resources such as oil, gas, wood and so on, but will not openly become Russia's partner in this war, because they play their geopolitical role for their own benefit.

In Estonia, we are constantly talking about the new invasion of Ukraine. Experts talk about when, how and on whose initiative it will come. Will we see large areas released this spring?

See you. I think that this year we will see very positive changes for Ukraine. I am sure that we will continue to liberate the temporarily occupied territories, as was done in Kyiv, Chernivtsi, Sumy, Kharkiv, Kherson, and Mao Island. It all continues.

Many thanks, Oleksi Reznikov. Glory to Ukraine.

Glory to the heroes! And please welcome Hanno Pevkur!

[BamaATL 16593]

A good read if you have a few minutes

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-26-2023

 

[MillerEP 30452]

^NY Post article on Putin's plans to go house-to-house to exterminate Ukrainians.

^Part 2 from the video posted about a week back

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

I’m a little high but did we talk about Putin shipping Nukes to Belarus a couple of days after putting out a joint statement with Xi saying they wouldn’t do that?

[atomheartbevo 89644]

4 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

^Part 2 from the video posted about a week back

It seems like every Ukrainian unit we see video of, somebody (or several) are packing NLAWs or Javelins.

Meanwhile, we see plenty of videos of Russian soldiers scrambling around, getting shot up, and not having anything to counter Ukrainian armor (not just tanks, but not even IFVs/APCs).  Lack of training, planning, and sanctions tanking your electronics manufacturing I guess.

[AUS-97HORN 11757]

Putin going for a 40M death count is fucking proof of him no longer being in control of reality. .   

Hes actually certifiable at this point.... we literally have a lunatic actually in charge of, and with the power to, actually give the order to activate potentially hundreds of nuke launch codes.

 

thats just fucking great.   

Edited March 27, 2023 by AUS-97HORN

[MillerEP 30452]

 

[MillerEP 30452]

 

[BamaATL 16593]

9 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

It seems like every Ukrainian unit we see video of, somebody (or several) are packing NLAWs or Javelins.

Meanwhile, we see plenty of videos of Russian soldiers scrambling around, getting shot up, and not having anything to counter Ukrainian armor (not just tanks, but not even IFVs/APCs).  Lack of training, planning, and sanctions tanking your electronics manufacturing I guess.

It runs much deeper than that.  The truth is that the Russians are dreadful at innovation, and they've relied on nuclear blackmail.  Even when they were the Soviet Union, all they ever managed to really do is build mass forces in terms of quantity, but never quality or continuous improvement.  Even before sanctions, their adoption of innovative technology when it comes to battlefield weaponry can at best be described as woeful.  For a while, this worked against foes in conflicts unsupported by Western weaponry; such as the Chechen War, their actions in Georgia, and really unopposed in Crimea.  However, if you look at the two first conflicts, particularly the Chechen War, all they really knew who to do was mass bombardment.  

If you look conversely at the Bradley Fighting Vehicle, ironically enough, when it was first developed it would be considered nothing short of an absolute disaster.  However, and this is a great rabbit hole to go down if your interested in governmental failure as well as correction, the difference between ourselves and them is correction.  Eventually, in our system, if we have a design failure either it gets corrected or cancelled and back to the drawing board.  The Soviets/Russians are extraordinarily slow to course correct, if they do at all.  (The Bradley history is both fascinating and angering at the same time).  

The Russians never innovated really, so when it comes right down to it, they only know one way to do things, because its the only way they can do it.  It's worked in the past, which I am sure is why Putin figured it would work now.  Then he ran into people that actually had Western support and it's a shit show for them because they have no idea how to pivot, and even if they recognize this (which some of the would have to).  Now, even if leadership wants to make changes in order to have success, they have no ability to do so given what they have to work with.  You can't overhaul decades of systemic incompetence and a lack of innovation in a matter of months.  

TL,DR - Russian guys are standing around with their dicks in their hands while being fire upon because they have no answer due to systemic lack of innovation.  Oh, and they are drunk, and likely on drugs.  

[Gatorubet 30202]

1 hour ago, AUS-97HORN said:

Putin going for a 40M death count is fucking proof of him no longer being in control of reality. .   

Hes actually certifiable at this point.... we literally have a lunatic actually in charge of, and with the power to, actually give the order to activate potentially hundreds of nuke launch codes.

 

thats just fucking great.   

Yeah, the closer he comes to being killed - or realizes he can’t go anywhere outside Russia or be arrested - his options may be narrowed to using nukes.  If this genocide revelation is true (and why this should surprise me I don’t know as his Talking Heads on TV have been saying this shit for some time) this scares me more about the possibility of him using nukes than anything else I’ve heard.

 

[Gatorubet 30202]

1 hour ago, MillerEP said:

Quote

The emails were leaked by a source within the FSB to Russian human rights activist Vladimir Osechkin, who founded Gulagu, a website that highlights the conditions in the country’s prison system, the US Sun reported.

FSB??  I’m hoping a few people in Russia are smart enough to realize that Putin has fucked them for decades, and the only way to avoid forever, North Korea is to get rid of Putin.   I can dream anyway.

[atomheartbevo 89644]

46 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

Yeah, the closer he comes to being killed - or realizes he can’t go anywhere outside Russia or be arrested - his options may be narrowed to using nukes.  If this genocide revelation is true (and why this should surprise me I don’t know as his Talking Heads on TV have been saying this shit for some time) this scares me more about the possibility of him using nukes than anything else I’ve heard.

I think Putin knows that if he crosses that line and uses nukes, then the West is actively trying to kill him at that point.  He's paranoid as hell - witness his 20-foot long tables, his constantly using the same security personnel as stand-ins for photo ops, etc.

As long as he doesn't use nukes, he knows the West won't actually try to get him, but once he pops one or more nukes, then that deterrent is completely gone and it's a race to kill him before he uses more.  He's had China tell him not to as well.

If he was going to use a nuke, he should have already used it well before now, when it could have helped his troops more.  He doesn't have the troops needed to exploit any breakthroughs or for occupying any large parts of Ukraine.

[atomheartbevo 89644]

So the Bradley's 25mm has Tungsten sabot rounds that they apparently used back in the first Gulf War to knock out Iraqi T-55s.  Not sure what we are sending over for ammo, but I would assume we are sending plenty of those (and/or have newer/better stuff).

[statsman 5457]

Here is the shareable link to the WSJ story on the coming offensive-

The outlines of Ukraine’s planned counteroffensive against the Russian invasion are beginning to emerge, after months of weapons deliveries from the West
https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-offensive-takes-shape-with-big-unknowns-2f75f5ae?st=lmcpojyeszho4rv&reflink=share_mobilewebshare
 

Unpopular opinion, but the US’ reluctance to a real increase in defense spending is a big hindrance to getting this war won. If this offensive isn’t dramatically successful, I suspect the 2014 borders are going to be the very best Ukraine can get. I don’t trust our domestic politics (both parties). 

[bolverk 29659]

 

[BamaATL 16593]

I have a big gun she can play with

 

[statsman 5457]

Western leaders are beginning to have a clearer vision of how they hope the war in Ukraine will end.
What is missing is any plan to make it happen.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-allies-see-a-way-war-can-end-but-lack-plan-to-achieve-it-ec1780b6?st=ahsslh7w2wa3hav&reflink=share_mobilewebshare

[atomheartbevo 89644]

 

[atomheartbevo 89644]

Kinda muddy

[atomheartbevo 89644]

Discussion of tear gas being used to flush people out of trenches/tunnels

And speaking of PMCs, ISW did a bit on Wagner

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-23-2023

Quote

Prigozhin denied the Kremlin’s claims that Russia is fighting NATO in Ukraine and questioned whether there are actually Nazis in Ukraine as the Kremlin constantly claims. Prigozhin stated that Russia is fighting “exclusively with Ukrainians” who are equipped with NATO-provided equipment and some “russophobic” mercenaries who voluntarily support Ukraine - but not NATO itself.[3] Prigozhin also noted that Russian officials most likely knew that NATO would offer Ukraine military aid, because “it is ridiculous to think that when [Russia] decided to conduct this special military operation it did not account for NATO’s help to Ukraine.” Prigozhin noted that he is unsure about the “denazification” objectives in Ukraine, because he does not know if there are “Nazis” in Ukraine.

 

[bolverk 29659]

Frustrating piece on the clusterfuck of American volunteers and fundraising efforts. Mentions inlcude Nance, the CT construction guy we read about months ago, and then that dipshit who defected.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/25/world/europe/volunteers-us-ukraine-lies.html?unlocked_article_code=UpyHjCn5eXtRBi4UMQrlxfd1wMlkz-ya1YGlGEL47G_75GMfPTv06rpCCq8ssOFIqjcATz-joKs900g4AVxNsOBcf3g1-IYX_H2mrIunc-npHRGtkt9LdpTguCgwZz3nsnUiN7msBgQtIZNaSG4xsTjd4Hlw9-OjWNykkK2842E6a_Jve5QtiuuEeWeNuJCzu4yyjrD1YDp8ZhYhkY1fd3KfeGkjrlraSudC5xuHXlMaoXoBUuf5WGbyLP9D7PpEqVQ9MLqLHBAGYAAAyCNZiuW-xY1uzKl7I1l9p-hc4bi1Vsq_wkeV6XR1RasTdtZPbYTqA5cu7SXcVpqX6jD6JMyj8lGMA_U-ng&smid=url-share

(shareable link)

[conVINCEd 21469]

Stupid question.  Can a country get kicked out of NATO?

[Bevo 13575]

5 minutes ago, conVINCEd said:

Stupid question.  Can a country get kicked out of NATO?

With difficulty. But, you wouldn’t want to kick someone out because you don’t like their leader. Leaderships change. We may not like Hungary or Turkey’s leadership now, but who is to say that we won’t like it in 10years? Back in the 90s I thought Prague was prettier than Budapest, but I thought Hungary was a better, more westernized place to live. I wouldn’t say that today, but who knows what the future holds?

[BamaATL 16593]

11 minutes ago, conVINCEd said:

Stupid question.  Can a country get kicked out of NATO?

I'm sure there are mechanisms to do so, but while Hungary is a pain in the ass right now, you don't do this because eventually Orban and his regime will no longer be in power, and you don't want to have to restart.  Short of them openly defecting to fight with Russia, NATO won't do this.  

[686 3448]

Wait for it:

[NeverMarryAStripper 21892]

The NATO treaty itself does not provide any mechanism for the forced removal of a member state.  It only allows for the voluntary withdrawal of a member state.

[Bevo 13575]

2 minutes ago, NeverMarryAStripper said:

The NATO treaty itself does not provide any mechanism for the forced removal of a member state.  It only allows for the voluntary withdrawal of a member state.

And that is what would most likely happen with a country like Hungary. Orban would be against what the west wants to achieve and would back out of NATO.

[BamaATL 16593]

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

Kinda muddy

I check the weather every now and again in Kharkiv every now and again and the 10 day calls for only one light freeze at 31, the rest of that is upwards of 60 degrees and fairly dry.  That having been said, it's going to take at least a few more weeks before the mud subsides.  Obviously Kharkiv is pretty far north, but I use it as a primer to get idea on the whole of Ukraine.  The good news, it's warming, so it maybe earlier that rasputista breaks this year.  I think we are at least a couple of weeks away.  I keep thinking that the counteroffensive will start late night/early on Saturday while the Russians are likely on an overnight drunk.  

[Chad Fuck 17669]

35 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

I check the weather every now and again in Kharkiv every now and again and the 10 day calls for only one light freeze at 31, the rest of that is upwards of 60 degrees and fairly dry.  That having been said, it's going to take at least a few more weeks before the mud subsides.  Obviously Kharkiv is pretty far north, but I use it as a primer to get idea on the whole of Ukraine.  The good news, it's warming, so it maybe earlier that rasputista breaks this year.  I think we are at least a couple of weeks away.  I keep thinking that the counteroffensive will start late night/early on Saturday while the Russians are likely on an overnight drunk.  

I've also noticed in some of the more recent videos that there are siginifcant grass fires.  Grass fires start in the spring when things are drying out.  They quickly die out when the grass is wet/muddy.  

[KYHorn 17025]

14 hours ago, MillerEP said:

^NY Post article on Putin's plans to go house-to-house to exterminate Ukrainians.

^Part 2 from the video posted about a week back

That is so intense and it's truly surreal that we can see it from a bird's eye view from multiple angles.

The Ukrainian soldier who threw that grenade back at the beginning of the clip seems to have survived...

 

Edited March 27, 2023 by KYHorn

[The Dog 44020]

 

[956 Worldwide 34705]

1 hour ago, Bevo said:

And that is what would most likely happen with a country like Hungary. Orban would be against what the west wants to achieve and would back out of NATO.

It is difficult for me to see a scenario where Orban would withdraw from NATO. Hungary is overwhelmingly a security consumer and not provider (just like it is a consumer of EU largesse and not a donor).

And as NATO operates on the principle of consensus, Hungary has far more ability to shape Alliance response and policy as a dishonest broker from the inside than as a gadfly from the outside. And there is no reasonable alternative partner. 
 

I could see Hungary throwing a tantrum and withdrawing from integrated command and kicking out any foreign presence, like France did at one point. But they’ll stay in the alliance if only to play spoiler. 

[Bevo 13575]

7 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

It is difficult for me to see a scenario where Orban would withdraw from NATO. Hungary is overwhelmingly a security consumer and not provider (just like it is a consumer of EU largesse and not a donor).

And as NATO operates on the principle of consensus, Hungary has far more ability to shape Alliance response and policy as a dishonest broker from the inside than as a gadfly from the outside. And there is no reasonable alternative partner. 
 

I could see Hungary throwing a tantrum and withdrawing from integrated command and kicking out any foreign presence, like France did at one point. But they’ll stay in the alliance if only to play spoiler. 

Yeah, I agree with you. I didn’t mean to imply that Hungary was likely to leave NATO: I only used them as an example. My only point was that it was more likely that they would leave on their own verses getting kicked out. I didn’t mean to imply that leaving on their own was likely.
 

I could also see a strong arm leader such as Erdogan trying to gain support locally in Turkey and getting pissed about some anti-Muslim legislation or actions in Europe and moving away from NATO.  Though, again, like you mentioned, they can get more accomplished by playing antagonist and just doing some limited tantrum stuff to make a point. 

[Gatorubet 30202]

I am waiting for news of this.

[bolverk 29659]

 

[SquishMitten 10403]

 

On 3/25/2023 at 2:17 PM, SL Xpress said:

 

It's interesting to me that on a long enough time line, the diminishment of Russia could be a disadvantage to the West because it empowers China, and China under their current system of government is a bigger threat over the long term than Russia is. At the same time in the near term Russia has made a full scale invasion of a neighboring European country, and so this makes me laugh. China is going to take complete advantage of Russia's situation. No doubt about it. That's what I was telling a bunch of people a couple of days ago who simply watch the news and were pseudo fearful of China and Russia "getting together." There's no getting together here. There's China preparing Russia for butt sex with no lube, and not even a reach around. 

China is a bigger threat in many ways. But at least they don’t casually talk about nuking everyone that disagrees with them

[MillerEP 30452]

 

[MillerEP 30452]

 

[Kwix 2186]

40 minutes ago, bolverk said:

 

Anyone have a cheat sheet on remaining required steps for countries currently seeking NATO membership?

[Chad Fuck 17669]

1 hour ago, Gatorubet said:

I am waiting for news of this.

Too advanced/complicated.  

[MillerEP 30452]

 

[The Dog 44020]

1 hour ago, 956 Worldwide said:

It is difficult for me to see a scenario where Orban would withdraw from NATO. Hungary is overwhelmingly a security consumer and not provider (just like it is a consumer of EU largesse and not a donor).

 

Yup. Hungary needs NATO and the EU more than they need Hungary. I believe the EU does have a mechanism to kick out a member and that's something they are holding over Orban to keep him in line. 

[956 Worldwide 34705]

47 minutes ago, Kwix said:

Anyone have a cheat sheet on remaining required steps for countries currently seeking NATO membership?

Just Turkey approves, they have said they will do so for Finland. And it’s official this year, likely at the NATO summit. 
 

Sweden still lacks Hungary and Turkey and that’s a tougher nut. 

10 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Yup. Hungary needs NATO and the EU more than they need Hungary. I believe the EU does have a mechanism to kick out a member and that's something they are holding over Orban to keep him in line. 

No, there’s no expulsion mechanism for EU, either. They can cut off funds, though and have other tools to correct behavior and that’s what he’s worried about.