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Eastwood

By Eastwood
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AUS-97HORN
AUS-97HORN

For the love of Christ woman,  stop posting the same fucking thing every 20 mins just to make your neurotic self feel better.     Bring something useful to the thread other than your inane babbli

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InkaUtexas
InkaUtexas

I volunteered today. Log/Admin role to replace people for 30-60 days. The operation is in the west, or should the Orcs win will be pulled back behind the NATO wall. Either way the humanitarian effort

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PhillyD

PhillyD 1257

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Macanudo said:

How does a 21 year old National Guardsman at a post in Massachusetts have access to this kind of data?  

I'm wondering this too.  Guy seems like a nobody.  I don't know shit about how Top Secret Docs work but seems like this guy wouldn't have that kind of access.

 

Edit:  I replied before all of the other replies with some explanations for how this could happen.  However, it still seems like there is a lot of carelessness in hthe chain somewhere.

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Skipper

Skipper 6136

Posted
Posted

Adding to the chorus, as non-military, it blows my mind some 21 yo dipshit has access to highly classified materials.  I would have thought you would need to put in your time and essentially be clearly pursuing and climbing the ladder towards a full blown long term military career before having that kind of access.  Seems absurd.

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Rimbo

Rimbo 25973

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, MillerEP said:

I doubt it, it is probably more deception, but it would be hilarious if they do.

Our chief weapon in war is deception! Deception and fear...fear and deception.... Our two weapons are fear and deception...and ruthless efficiency. Our three weapons are fear, and deception, and ruthless efficiency...and an almost fanatical devotion to Zelensky. Our four...no. Amongst our weapons.... Amongst our weaponry...are such elements as fear, deception.... I'll come in again.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89718

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, PhillyD said:

I'm wondering this too.  Guy seems like a nobody.  I don't know shit about how Top Secret Docs work but seems like this guy wouldn't have that kind of access.

Edit:  I replied before all of the other replies with some explanations for how this could happen.  However, it still seems like there is a lot of carelessness in hthe chain somewhere.

Oh there's going to be multiple NCOs and officers whose careers have ended today, if they haven't already.

And this could very well be a situation where one of his bosses was lazy and either wasn't keeping an eye on what he was doing, or was having this guy do some of his work.  Think of it like the civilian world where a secretary/admin either has access to stuff they normally wouldn't because their bosses were leaving the passwords on a sticky note on the computer display, or their bosses were actually having them retrieve documents, etc., for them because they didn't want to deal with it.

Either way careers are ended, and one or more people will be going to prison for a long time.

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mrlasky

mrlasky 28

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, locodos said:

Innocent until proven guilty and all that...  but this is somewhat satisfying.

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-us-canada-65270387

 

Yes it is.  I've never been in his situation, but if I were sitting around waiting for an FBI SWAT team to arrest me, I would dress exactly as he did.  Shorts, T shirt, not much else.  Clearly not hiding any weapons.  

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Rimbo

Rimbo 25973

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, Skipper said:

Adding to the chorus, as non-military, it blows my mind some 21 yo dipshit has access to highly classified materials.  I would have thought you would need to put in your time and essentially be clearly pursuing and climbing the ladder towards a full blown long term military career before having that kind of access.  Seems absurd.

He was IT. IT generally has access to more than they ever should care about, because they need to in order to monitor the systems, grant privileges to others, etc. And big systems need a big IT staff.

Now, rest assured that this is the absolute last IT job this guy will ever have.

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CHIEF

CHIEF 5092

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, Rimbo said:

Our chief weapon in war is deception! Deception and fear...fear and deception.... Our two weapons are fear and deception...and ruthless efficiency. Our three weapons are fear, and deception, and ruthless efficiency...and an almost fanatical devotion to Zelensky. Our four...no. Amongst our weapons.... Amongst our weaponry...are such elements as fear, deception.... I'll come in again.

CHIEF

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89718

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:

 

James Franco GIF

Would be a twist if the below is referencing the above, and it's just Wagner forming a new company/unit, only getting to pull mobilized troops from the regular Russian military. That makes you wonder about if Wagner's leadership criticizing certain Russian leaders is just smoke and mirrors.

9 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Some chatter about this, in light of Wagner being a shambles and/or actually trying to shift its focus to Africa (not helped by the Wagner chief shit-talking various Russian officials).   Talk is that they are better trained/equipped than Wagner is at this point, and/or they aren't convicts and may even be Russian Army vets that are being built up into a battalion-sized group or two to try and get some kind of victory, even on a small scale, for Putin.

 

 

Edited by atomheartbevo
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RDCanecutter

RDCanecutter 26447

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, mrlasky said:

 

Yes it is.  I've never been in his situation, but if I were sitting around waiting for an FBI SWAT team to arrest me, I would dress exactly as he did.  Shorts, T shirt, not much else.  Clearly not hiding any weapons.  

He's dressed that way because he was wanking it.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89718

Posted
Posted

The videos of him shooting guns while shouting racist and anti-Semitic stuff is somehow not surprising, but what is surprising is that the motherfucker was hand-typing the notes up and smuggling them out - per regulations, he couldn't get any electronic devices into the SCIF bunker.

Which means one or more people weren't exercising some kind of oversight.  It sounds like he was a staffer/admin who prepared this stuff for higher-ups who came into the SCIF to read it, and somehow he was smuggling shit out.

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statsman

statsman 5471

Posted
Posted

So, we know:

1. Ukraine really is in a tough spot wrt munitions. Russia knows it, too. 
2. our information security sucks. Our allies know it, too. 
3. Ukraine’s supporters’ actions show that they are not as committed as rhetoric indicates. 

Ukraine can win, I believe, even if “winning” is defined as getting back to pre-2014 borders. However, they are wholly dependent on munitions and aid from supporters. I believe Ukraine can win, but I don’t believe “just enough” help “just in time” will do the job. We really need, before the next election cycle starts up, to go all in, and set up new production lines to ensure Ukraine can have all the armament it wants and more. In war, sometimes, too much is just enough. Don’t give Russia any hope that they can wait this out. 
 
I fear that bad news (or even mixed news) this spring will wear away at support (the US public is notoriously fickle with short attention spans). 
 
More, and now, please. 

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Gatorubet

Gatorubet 30246

Posted
Posted
So, we know:
1. Ukraine really is in a tough spot wrt munitions. Russia knows it, too. 
2. our information security sucks. Our allies know it, too. 
3. Ukraine’s supporters’ actions show that they are not as committed as rhetoric indicates. 

Ukraine can win, I believe, even if “winning” is defined as getting back to pre-2014 borders. However, they are wholly dependent on munitions and aid from supporters. I believe Ukraine can win, but I don’t believe “just enough” help “just in time” will do the job. We really need, before the next election cycle starts up, to go all in, and set up new production lines to ensure Ukraine can have all the armament it wants and more. In war, sometimes, too much is just enough. Don’t give Russia any hope that they can wait this out. 
 
I fear that bad news (or even mixed news) this spring will wear away at support (the US public is notoriously fickle with short attention spans). 
 
More, and now, please. 
I’ve been wondering if we’ve been looking at some of this stuff wrong. Russia’s economy is tanking, their workforce is severely disrupted. Conscription age men have either left or been conscripted.  Russia’s ability to provide its military with effective armored vehicles is so nonexistent they have to come up with a 60 year old vehicles.
Both countries have a shell shortage. But only Ukraine has the entire world pledging to deliver more and manufacture more and deliver it to Ukraine. I forget who was giving them 500,000 shells yesterday.
Maybe the longer this goes on the better it is for Ukraine. If the long delayed things eventually arrive, they will have better equipment than Russia. They don’t need shells forever. They just need a shit ton of shells for a giant offensive to kick Russia’s ass. Maybe time is not an enemy, but Ukraine’s best friend. Experts said the economic shit has yet to arrive and hit the Russian man on the street.  Perhaps more time gives the stans and other Russian federation territories more time to plan their departure, as the eye of Mordor is otherwise occupied.
Maybe if Ukraine gets all of the kit that’s been promised and delayed that that will be enough to win any major offensive in the future.   We know Russia has logistics nightmare and we know they are broke ass and unable to replace pilots and planes and tanks, and tank crews. 
If a fully robust and trained and supplied Ukraine kills 50,000 Russians, and takes another 20,000 prisoner in an awesome offensive after they are fully on steroids, and if they take back the lands taken by this Russian special operation, I don’t think Russia will be able to field another 200,000 idiots to wear plastic helmets and carry old Kalashnikovs and go out to Ukraine again. If they win the offensive push, you won’t even have enough vehicles to send the 60 year old alcoholics to the front lines. 
I’m going to think positive
 
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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89718

Posted
Posted
46 minutes ago, statsman said:

, to go all in, and set up new production lines to ensure Ukraine can have all the armament it wants and more. In war, sometimes, too much is just enough. Don’t give Russia any hope that they can wait this out.

That's all already happening in terms of new production lines, etc.  We can armchair quarterback and say that if we had given them so much more early last year after it started (or better yet after 2014), that everything would be better, but it what it is.  It sucks, but Ukraine has a lot of stuff coming, including really good stuff, while Russia is getting drones and missiles from fucking Iran.  And maybe artillery shells from North Korea.

The fact that Russia's legislature is now shutting down its borders and banning men from leaving the country, and the fact that they are drafting men by texting/emailing them and freezing their passports and drivers licenses so that the next time they hit a checkpoint, they are getting pulled out and sent to the nearest conscript office is not a good sign for them, especially since they are ramping up their normal yearly conscription. 

Like several said, Russia has spent 8 months trying to take Bakhmut, a city the size of San Marcos, and that's 130 miles from the Russian border.

8 months for a tiny city a few hours away from their border and they can't even take it.  That speaks volumes about the competency of the Russian military.

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Gengs1

Gengs1 2583

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Judge Roybeanbag said:

Was kinda wondering that too.

It’s the leadership that had that info and thought they were too important to do some of the grunt work and delegated it to lower rank ppl who stole it. Sometimes the ppl in charge delegate the stuff they should be doing. A bunch of assholes 

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BehoId, The Underminer!

BehoId, The Underminer! 11669

Posted
Posted

From WaPo.  
 

Quote

Russia’s commando units gutted by Ukraine war, U.S. leak shows

THE DISCORD LEAKS | Russia’s clandestine spetsnaz forces have been put to use alongside the infantry, suffering massive numbers of dead and wounded

Alex Horton

Russian spetsnaz forces participate in a parade rehearsal in Moscow. (Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Images)

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The war in Ukraine has gutted Russia’s clandestine spetsnaz forces, and it will take Moscow years to rebuild them, according to classified U.S. assessments obtained by The Washington Post.

The finding, which has not been previously reported, is among a cache of sensitive materials leaked online through the messaging platform Discord. U.S. officials attributed their assessments to Russian commanders’ overreliance on the specialized units, which have been put to use as part of front-line infantry formations. Those formations, like the Ukrainians, have suffered massive numbers of dead and wounded.

Typically, spetsnaz personnel are assigned the sorts of stealthy, high-risk missions — including an apparent order to capture Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky — for which they receive some of the Russian military’s most advanced training. But when Moscow launched its full-scale invasion last year, senior commanders eager to seize momentum and skeptical of their conventional fighters’ prowess deviated from the norm, ordering elite forces into direct combat, according to U.S. intelligence findings and independent analysts who have closely followed spetsnaz deployments.

The rapid depletion of Russia’s commando units, observers say, shifted the war’s dynamic from the outset, severely limiting Moscow’s ability to employ clandestine tactics in support of conventional combat operations. U.S. officials believe that the staggering casualties these units have sustained will render them less effective, not only in Ukraine but also in other parts of the world where Russian forces operate, according to the assessments, which range in date from late 2022 to earlier this year.

This image is part of the leaked classified material that was circulated in a Discord chatroom and obtained by The Washington Post. The Post informed the Pentagon that this imagery would be published with this story. The document shows satellite images of the 22nd Separate Spetsnaz Brigade’s motor pool in southwestern Russia. The images were captured, from left to right, in November 2021 and November 2022, showing a depleted force following its return from Ukraine last summer. (Obtained by The Washington Post)

The hollowing of these units appears to be evident in satellite imagery featured among the leaked materials. Before-and-after photos — showing a base used by the 22nd Separate Spetsnaz Brigade in southern Russia, according to the document — reveal that “all but one of five Russian Separate Spetsnaz Brigades that returned from combat operations in Ukraine in late summer 2022 suffered significant losses.”

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The slide includes two overhead images, one taken in November 2021, months before the invasion began, and another captured a year later. The former shows a bustling motor pool teeming with vehicles; the latter reveals what U.S. officials concluded is a state of extreme depletion months after the brigade’s return home with fewer than half of the Tigr tactical vehicles it had before the deployment. The 22nd and two other spetsnaz brigades suffered an estimated 90 to 95 percent attrition rate, the assessments say.

Compounding Russia’s problems is the loss of experience within its elite forces. Spetsnaz soldiers require at least four years of specialized training, the U.S. documents say, concluding that it could take as long as a decade for Moscow to reconstitute these units.

The documents do not say how many spetsnaz troops are estimated to have been killed or wounded in Ukraine, but the materials, citing intelligence intercepts, assess that one unit alone — the 346th — “lost nearly the entire brigade with only 125 personnel active out of 900 deployed.”

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U.S. intelligence analysts tracked every spetsnaz unit that returned home to southern Russia from Ukraine — except for one: the 25th Spetsnaz Regiment. Severe personnel and equipment losses, the documents say, “could explain why there is no clear [intelligence] signature of their return to garrison.”

The U.S. government assessments dovetail with analysts’ observations. Rob Lee, a Russia military expert and senior fellow with the Foreign Policy Research Institute, said that because Russia’s motorized rifle infantry soldiers proved ineffective, commanders have sought to compensate by pushing elite airborne units, naval infantry and spetsnaz to the front, including in the failed bid to capture Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, and for campaigns in the east and south.

There was an immediate consequence to that strategy, Lee said. Russian commanders, having burned through the best-trained fighters, forfeited the valuable skills those troops possess, including intelligence gathering and reconnaissance, from the start of the invasion through last fall.

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“That affected the rest of the war because Russia lost all these key capabilities up front that they couldn’t easily replace — both equipment-wise and talent-wise,” he said. “That affected what they could and couldn’t do.”

Just days into the war, spetsnaz troops arrived in the eastern city of Kharkiv in small numbers and without much support from conventional troops, Lee said. Many of them were killed or captured, he noted. Several of their specialized vehicles were destroyed, videos and photos show.

A similar situation played out in Mariupol in the south, Lee said, and in the eastern Donbas region, where fighting often took place in wooded areas where regular Russian motorized rifle units had difficulty operating. Spetsnaz forces have also operated in the coal-mining town of Vuhledar in the Donetsk region, Lee said, where Ukrainian and Russian forces have battled each other for months.

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A soldier who served in Vuhledar with Ukraine’s 72nd Mechanized Brigade told The Post that while he could not confirm his unit faced spetsnaz, that was probably the case because they carried advanced body armor along with high-end night vision and thermal optics. Those enemy troops operated in small units, this soldier said, conducting traditional reconnaissance and infantry missions. He spoke on the condition of anonymity citing the sensitivity of recent operations.

The apparent death of a spetsnaz brigade commander in Vuhledar in February further illustrates the scope of problems facing Russia, Lee said. If such a senior military leader “is that far forward, there is probably something not quite right. Either losses are too heavy in that unit, or they’re being used in a way they’re not supposed to be used,” he added.

Russia’s expenditure of its elite troops will have cascading effects, the documents say, including a loss of some ability to train paramilitary groups in unconventional warfare tactics, “which Russia has used to advance its interests abroad.”

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It’s clear that spetsnaz troops are a finite resource that can’t be easily replenished, Lee said. What’s not clear is whether conventional Russian commanders have learned from what’s happened in Ukraine or how best to use these elite forces. “It’s going to be a while before there is a full understanding of how they are adapting,” he said.

There are signs online of the 22nd Separate Spetsnaz Brigade’s activity in Ukraine. One video from last summer appears to show members of the unit’s sniper section moving through buildings, using high-end equipment out of reach for many Russian regulars.

Other images lack the same bravado. Photos purporting to show a young captain in the 22nd, Alexei, circulated in March 2022 along with images of a granite memorial to soldiers killed before the war was even two months old. Alexei’s name is inscribed at the top.

Samuel Oakford in Washington, Anastacia Galouchka in Kyiv, Ukraine, and Evan Hill in New York contributed to this report.

 

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89718

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Just days into the war, spetsnaz troops arrived in the eastern city of Kharkiv in small numbers and without much support from conventional troops, Lee said. Many of them were killed or captured, he noted. Several of their specialized vehicles were destroyed, videos and photos show.

A similar situation played out in Mariupol in the south, Lee said, and in the eastern Donbas region, where fighting often took place in wooded areas where regular Russian motorized rifle units had difficulty operating. Spetsnaz forces have also operated in the coal-mining town of Vuhledar in the Donetsk region, Lee said, where Ukrainian and Russian forces have battled each other for months.

I remember the photos/videos of those dead spetsnaz and their vehicles, because the OSINT people were making a huge deal out of what those guys were wearing and carrying.  A couple of their vehicles and a bunch of bodies lying around them - they were hit by a heavier Ukrainian force, and their vehicles' aluminum armor didn't do shit to help them.

Also, early on, we saw a lot of photos of Russian troops that were much better equipped/outfitted than typical Russian troops, and it was clear they were airborne or spetsnaz units, and as the war dragged on, you saw fewer and fewer photos of Russians that were equipped or outfitted in such a manner.

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Captainant

Captainant 27680

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Meanwhile, speaking of gaming communities...

 

Re: gaming communities, this feels exactly like gamergate did: using passionate but uninformed and tribal young people to get a message out on a different wavelength. Radicalize them and then exploit them as footsoldiers for your antidemocratic takeover attempt. It led to a bunch of street fighting domestically for a few years, and it's leading to genuine intelligence wins for a foreign adversary now. 

You'd think we'd fucking learn our lesson. 

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Nivek

Nivek 16944

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

Thanks to all who post here. Appreciate it. @MillerEP @atomheartbevo @956 Worldwide and to all I missed. Best thread on the site until football starts and we can make fun of aggy. 

Serious. Good job folk. @blacklab @immamac  Thanks for keeping it clean. 

Fuck, another hug-fest and only 4 months after Christmas.

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Serak The Preparer

Serak The Preparer 3431

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

Thanks to all who post here. Appreciate it. @MillerEP @atomheartbevo @956 Worldwide and to all I missed. Best thread on the site until football starts and we can make fun of aggy. 

Serious. Good job folk. @blacklab @immamac  Thanks for keeping it clean. 

Jonathan Frakes Oops GIF by FILMRISE

We don't need to wait until football season to make fun of aggy. The screenshot thread in 9.95 delivers value all year long.

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