Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[atomheartbevo 90053]

And Putin has mobilized hundreds of thousands more Russians, and Wagner mobilized tens of thousands of convicts, since February of 2022.

If Putin had quietly increased the yearly mobilization numbers and the supplies for the Russian military prior to 2020, and had taken an active hand in building out an army for invasion (i.e. an army with lots of trucks) so that by the time 2022 rolled around, there were 100,000 or 150,000 more troops that were trained and supplied, I think things might have gone far differently.

8 years and they fucked up something as simple as fuel supplies for the truck convoy headed to Kyiv.

[chainsaw 10006]

16 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

The examples you and others mentioned are mostly "epic" in nature - the Japanese thinking that they could take the US out of a fight that would span the Pacific even as everybody knew that the US was ramping up its industrial might, and to do so long enough for Japan to secure their oil and gas supplies, Cleopatra's machinations, people fucking with Genghis Khan, Germany attacking Russia when it had not finished off the rest of Europe, the Ottoman's siding with Germany when neither Germany nor the Ottomans had the world-spanning navy, resources, and Empire that the Brits had, Napoleon doing his thing in Russia, and the list goes on. These things were on a massively grand scale.

And some of these things were even grounded in reality - Japan was already on a timer in terms of running out of oil, and knew they had to take out Pearl Harbor to help cut off the Philippines so that the US couldn't use the Philippines to interdict Japanese supply lines. Arguably the Ottomans knew that if somebody was going to take them down eventually, it'd be the Brits, and so on.

The thing about Russia's actions in 2022 is that there wasn't anything "epic" about them.  Russia had controlled 17% of Ukraine for nearly 8 years, and Russia had nearly 8 years for its spies to completely survey the Ukrainian military inside and out, and for several years, Russia had pro-Russian leaders running Ukraine, and more importantly, Russia had nearly 8 years to build a military that was completely tailored towards taking over more of Ukraine and occupying it.

Nearly 8 years to prepare to take over a country that it had worked to destroy internally through political maneuvering and shutting off a lot of natural resources it controlled.

And in late 2021, even after Russia took over 15% of Ukraine nearly 8 years before, they still had much of Europe trading with them, relying on them for energy.

It's like if Japan had infiltrated the US government and had been controlling it for nearly 8 years after it had annexed Hawaii and Alaska and the Philippines and a chunk of California, or if Germany attacked Russia after it had been controlling parts of the country for a few years, and had taken over Siberia for nearly 8 years.

And yes, hindsight is 20/20, but it was clear that Putin misjudged the Ukrainian people because Russia didn't have the numbers to truly occupy and control all that much territory. You can put a dozen soldiers at a crossroads and control the traffic at that specific point, but if you don't have dozens more soldiers backing them up by securing the surrounding countryside, you don't control shit. Instead, you've got a dozen guys waiting to be picked off or surrounded.

I think a case could be made that Russia fucked up far worse than anybody else, given that they had an 8 year head start to be ready for February of 2022. 

It's like having a 28-3 lead

[SL Xpress 7518]

16 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

The examples you and others mentioned are mostly "epic" in nature - the Japanese thinking that they could take the US out of a fight that would span the Pacific even as everybody knew that the US was ramping up its industrial might, and to do so long enough for Japan to secure their oil and gas supplies, Cleopatra's machinations, people fucking with Genghis Khan, Germany attacking Russia when it had not finished off the rest of Europe, the Ottoman's siding with Germany when neither Germany nor the Ottomans had the world-spanning navy, resources, and Empire that the Brits had, Napoleon doing his thing in Russia, and the list goes on. These things were on a massively grand scale.

And some of these things were even grounded in reality - Japan was already on a timer in terms of running out of oil, and knew they had to take out Pearl Harbor to help cut off the Philippines so that the US couldn't use the Philippines to interdict Japanese supply lines. Arguably the Ottomans knew that if somebody was going to take them down eventually, it'd be the Brits, and so on.

The thing about Russia's actions in 2022 is that there wasn't anything "epic" about them.  Russia had controlled 17% of Ukraine for nearly 8 years, and Russia had nearly 8 years for its spies to completely survey the Ukrainian military inside and out, and for several years, Russia had pro-Russian leaders running Ukraine, and more importantly, Russia had nearly 8 years to build a military that was completely tailored towards taking over more of Ukraine and occupying it.

Nearly 8 years to prepare to take over a country that it had worked to destroy internally through political maneuvering and shutting off a lot of natural resources it controlled.

And in late 2021, even after Russia took over 15% of Ukraine nearly 8 years before, they still had much of Europe trading with them, relying on them for energy.

It's like if Japan had infiltrated the US government and had been controlling it for nearly 8 years after it had annexed Hawaii and Alaska and the Philippines and a chunk of California, or if Germany attacked Russia after it had been controlling parts of the country for a few years, and had taken over Siberia for nearly 8 years.

And yes, hindsight is 20/20, but it was clear that Putin misjudged the Ukrainian people because Russia didn't have the numbers to truly occupy and control all that much territory. You can put a dozen soldiers at a crossroads and control the traffic at that specific point, but if you don't have dozens more soldiers backing them up by securing the surrounding countryside, you don't control shit. Instead, you've got a dozen guys waiting to be picked off or surrounded.

I think a case could be made that Russia fucked up far worse than anybody else, given that they had an 8 year head start to be ready for February of 2022. 

But asking the question, "So I’ll ask again, is this the biggest geopolitical blunder in the history of mankind?" kind of lends itself to epic answers.

I don't consider many blunders being discussed - Germany attacking Russia, Japan's surprise attack at Pearl Harbor, Napoleon invading Russia, or the Russian navy's sound defeat at the hands of the Japanese - as the same kind of epochal in nature, because in the end their civilization and culture remained intact. I do like 956 Worldwide's citation of Hussein's invasion of Kuwait. That was a gigantic miscalculation in modern times. I'd also add US support for Khomeini over the Shah, which I've cited on this thread previously. 

But in terms of something so unnecessary, you and I are on the same page. You made your original response as I was typing, but it's not like I disagree with anything you're saying here or in your previous post.

The bottom line for me is that Putin got religion. He became a true believer in his own role in history. I think he still sees himself as the savior of Russia, the savior of Europe, and savior of his racial identity. He doesn't believe Ukraine has a right to exist. He's never thought they should exist. They are meant to be good Russians, and to paraphrase the infamous US officer quote during the Vietnam War, if they have to destroy Ukrainians once and for all to save them, so be it. 

It's led to an amazing number of miscalculations, in part because he's set up a system where no one dares mention to the emperor he might not be wearing a full set of clothes. Unfortunately they're still very dangerous, even as inept of a fighting force as they've proven themselves to be. I'm concerned about the expectations for this counter offensive. If Ukraine achieves any kind of breakthrough against the Russian fortifications I'm going to be giddy, whereas most talking heads I've watched seem to be continuously talking about Ukraine reaching the sea. I mean, maybe that's what happens. I hope so. It just seems a shame to have that as the expectation. 

But I do feel like we're about to find out what Ukraine has in store for the Russians. 

[statsman 5500]

Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky discussed the coming counteroffensive, U.S. elections, NATO and China in a wide-ranging interview with The Wall Street Journal
https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraines-zelensky-we-are-ready-for-counteroffensive-22f4f3f2?st=8hmcqtv9on8h72a&reflink=share_mobilewebshare

[atomheartbevo 90053]

8 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

But asking the question, "So I’ll ask again, is this the biggest geopolitical blunder in the history of mankind?" kind of lends itself to epic answers.

Probably not mankind, but easily since the 1940s, but damn. I would note that I don't even know if I consider Japan attacking the US to be a blunder - if they do nothing, they were going to run low on oil unless they start conquering, etc. as well as their supply lines would be vulnerable around the Philippines.  Their big blunder was being greedy and looking past China and Korea.

Like I said, Putin had 8 years to prepare, and he didn't. I can't think of another leader in his situation who, knowing that they want to eventually take the other 83% of the country that they already partially control, not doing something in the ensuing 8 years.

Hell, Hitler came to power in 1933. In the nearly 8 years afterward, he built out a massive fucking army that was oriented on taking over Europe, and it performed phenomenally until he made a very crucial mistake in attacking the Soviets (one could argue Dunkirk as well, but no attack on the Soviets negates that).

Putin couldn't stop a convoy from stalling 30 miles from Kyiv.

 

[atomheartbevo 90053]

8 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

I'm concerned about the expectations for this counter offensive. If Ukraine achieves any kind of breakthrough against the Russian fortifications I'm going to be giddy, whereas most talking heads I've watched seem to be continuously talking about Ukraine reaching the sea. I mean, maybe that's what happens. I hope so. It just seems a shame to have that as the expectation. 

But I do feel like we're about to find out what Ukraine has in store for the Russians.

I think the comments about reaching the sea are due to how thinly spread and ill-equipped  the Russians are, and possibly spreading out even more due to troops possibly being pulled back to guard Russia. Psychologically, those Russians in Ukraine are not defending Russia and they know it, and once you crack a few of them, the rest will go running. We saw it with Iraq/Kuwait - nobody wants to be slaughtered in another country because their leader was greedy.

I cannot see the Russian border situation continuing the way it is, not when the Russian talking heads on state TV are openly discussing it, and I would be surprised if they don't pull in experienced troops to deal with the border stuff rather than recently mobilized (and can you trust them to be competent or loyal enough?).

And when the counter-offensive(s) kick off, it would be perfect if the Russians fighting for Ukraine really got wild in Russia.

[Schulz2.0 29040]

 

[Gatorubet 30401]

The examples you and others mentioned are mostly "epic" in nature - the Japanese thinking that they could take the US out of a fight that would span the Pacific even as everybody knew that the US was ramping up its industrial might, and to do so long enough for Japan to secure their oil and gas supplies, Cleopatra's machinations, people fucking with Genghis Khan, Germany attacking Russia when it had not finished off the rest of Europe, the Ottoman's siding with Germany when neither Germany nor the Ottomans had the world-spanning navy, resources, and Empire that the Brits had, Napoleon doing his thing in Russia, and the list goes on. These things were on a massively grand scale.
And some of these things were even grounded in reality - Japan was already on a timer in terms of running out of oil, and knew they had to take out Pearl Harbor to help cut off the Philippines so that the US couldn't use the Philippines to interdict Japanese supply lines. Arguably the Ottomans knew that if somebody was going to take them down eventually, it'd be the Brits, and so on.
The thing about Russia's actions in 2022 is that there wasn't anything "epic" about them.  Russia had controlled 17% of Ukraine for nearly 8 years, and Russia had nearly 8 years for its spies to completely survey the Ukrainian military inside and out, and for several years, Russia had pro-Russian leaders running Ukraine, and more importantly, Russia had nearly 8 years to build a military that was completely tailored towards taking over more of Ukraine and occupying it.
Nearly 8 years to prepare to take over a country that it had worked to destroy internally through political maneuvering and shutting off a lot of natural resources it controlled.
And in late 2021, even after Russia took over 15% of Ukraine nearly 8 years before, they still had much of Europe trading with them, relying on them for energy.
It's like if Japan had infiltrated the US government and had been controlling it for nearly 8 years after it had annexed Hawaii and Alaska and the Philippines and a chunk of California, or if Germany attacked Russia after it had been controlling parts of the country for a few years, and had taken over Siberia for nearly 8 years.
And yes, hindsight is 20/20, but it was clear that Putin misjudged the Ukrainian people because Russia didn't have the numbers to truly occupy and control all that much territory. You can put a dozen soldiers at a crossroads and control the traffic at that specific point, but if you don't have dozens more soldiers backing them up by securing the surrounding countryside, you don't control shit. Instead, you've got a dozen guys waiting to be picked off or surrounded.
I think a case could be made that Russia fucked up far worse than anybody else, given that they had an 8 year head start to be ready for February of 2022. 

Sometimes decisions hinge on weird and mundane reasons. I’ve always got the impression that Putin thought Zelensky was an absolute joke. A lightweight comedian with no political chops and no killer instinct.  I think Putin thought Zelensky would bail at the first opportunity, and that Ukraine would not rally around some idiot comedian to withstand the mighty Soviet army.  

[Schulz2.0 29040]

 

[Rimbo 26430]

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

Like I said, Putin had 8 years to prepare, and he didn't. I can't think of another leader in his situation who, knowing that they want to eventually take the other 83% of the country that they already partially control, not doing something in the ensuing 8 years.

I think he did prepare. But the Dictator Trap, and the Kleptocracy he had built around himself, meant that any attempt to achieve anything was going to fail from self-sabotage. You may line your own pockets well with such a system, but you will build nothing, achieve nothing.

Putin's stubborn attempt to make something out of nothing here is destroying Russia. He sought to establish his legacy and go down in history with this invasion, and he has! But it is not the legacy or fame he thought he was going for.

[tx 3 putt 77925]

 

[BamaATL 16593]

Talk about begging to see what a storm shadow can do up close and personal, wouldn't break my heart if a bunch of Chechens suffocate to death in a mine though

 

[SydneyCarton 48303]

On 6/2/2023 at 9:07 AM, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

Andrew Perpetua I think Russians are acutely aware that fighting a war against fellow Russians within their own border is…not good.

I’m not sure we can actually count on everyday Russians to be aware of anything but what they’re told, even shit they are with their eyes. 

17 hours ago, PTINS said:

From an economic perspective, it is an absolute disaster for Russia. They had a bottomless cash cow, and they shot it in the head.

With the caveat that you never get involved in a land war in Asia, nobody is going to invade Russia and annex their lands, meaning nobody is going to take their mineral resources.

Russia's was the largest Oil & Gas Exporter in the World, with total exports of ~ $200,000,000,000/yr, roughly $130 Billion in oil and $70 Billion in gas.  Europe was the perfect trading partner for Russia, with limited production and a common border, and imported ~ 70% of Russia's export $, or ~ $130 Billion worth of Russian O&G.  

Keep in mind that Russia's gross proceeds and net proceeds are different than US O&G companies, as they are not burdened with production and severance taxes, they don't pay royalties (except some bribes maybe?), pay for permits, wrestle with the EPA, OSHA and countless other governmental regulations, they don't pay for right-of-way and damages incurred during construction, and they are not fighting against 100's of organizations who sole purpose in life is to make sure they never drill another oil & gas well anywhere at any time. They won't get expertise from Exxon, Shell & Conoco anymore, so replacing US technology with "Made in China" will affect on-line performance.

Where domestic O&G companies has profit margins in the 5-10% range, Russia's are maybe 80%.

That will never be replaced. Over time, the production will find its way into the market, but at a much different price point.  I expect war reparations Russia pays to Ukraine will take the majority of that revenue for a some period of time, and after that, Russia will be a secondary supplier to Europe and left to deal with China & India. 

How will Russia replace that revenue, Vodka and mail-order-brides?

 

No one buys Russian vodka. 

[The Dog 44180]

 

[Bevo 13635]

19 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

 

[Brisketexan 105572]

 

[956 Worldwide 34918]

Other terrible decisions in history, some more “epic” than others: 

 

Austria-Hungary, which is in no way prepared for war, issues a ridiculous ultimatum to Serbia and ignores every sign that Russia will come fight. Then invades Serbia. The first war ended regimes in Germany, Austria, and Russia but only Austria destroyed the most successful dynasty on the continent and never became a real power again. 
 

Slobodan Milosevic for just not taking a fucking break from the genocides, anytime you end in The Hague after the Americans drop bombs on you, you done fucked up. 
 

Croesus attacking Persia destroyed the Lydian Empire. Probably not as dramatic as Herodotus tells it (he misinterprets a Delphic oracle that tells him he will “destroy a mighty kingdom if he attacks Persia”— and he destroyed his own). But the war did end in a total elimination of Lydia and his own death. 

[MillerEP 30570]

 

[The Dog 44180]

 

[Post Oak 20327]

12 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

Then out spake brave Horatius,
The Captain of the gate:
‘To every man upon this earth
Death cometh soon or late.
And how can man die better
Than facing fearful odds,
For the ashes of his fathers,
And the temples of his Gods

[SL Xpress 7518]

2 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Other terrible decisions in history, some more “epic” than others: 

 

Austria-Hungary, which is in no way prepared for war, issues a ridiculous ultimatum to Serbia and ignores every sign that Russia will come fight. Then invades Serbia. The first war ended regimes in Germany, Austria, and Russia but only Austria destroyed the most successful dynasty on the continent and never became a real power again. 
 

Slobodan Milosevic for just not taking a fucking break from the genocides, anytime you end in The Hague after the Americans drop bombs on you, you done fucked up. 
 

Croesus attacking Persia destroyed the Lydian Empire. Probably not as dramatic as Herodotus tells it (he misinterprets a Delphic oracle that tells him he will “destroy a mighty kingdom if he attacks Persia”— and he destroyed his own). But the war did end in a total elimination of Lydia and his own death. 

Also, you guys were talking about Athen’s mistakes against Sparta. 

How about Thebes deciding to revolt against Macedon after the assasination of Philip II, with 20 year old whipper snapper Alexander way off in the Balkans campaigning? 

Alexander force marched in 3 weeks, turned the city to rubble, massacred the men and boys (other than some priests), and sold all the women and girls into slavery. 

Afterwards the other rebellious Greek city states, including Athens, decided they didn’t feel so rebellious after all. “We good, Alex. We good.”

Also, a special mention to Smyrna. After WWI the Greeks were trying to reestablish their historic presence in Anatolia, with Allied support. Then the Allies withdrew their support and Kemal kicked all the Greeks out by force, including the massacre of the Greeks at Smyrna. 

[Rimbo 26430]

1 hour ago, The Dog said:

 

https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1665054015070060545?t=HWfAS2I8hHUBXVJ7lVtprQ&s=19

Quote

‼️The Russian authorities have lost control over Shebekino in Belgorod.  "They are trying to pull up reserves from the front and with their senseless actions have sown panic among the population. Looting, mass flight, use of aviation and artillery against civilians, this is the only thing that Russia has to offer.  Our task is to establish ourselves.  The operation is ongoing 🔥 💪 😈"

 

[MagicSoccerSpray 1732]

Very good read

[The Dog 44180]

 

[BamaATL 16593]

6 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

I guess Mullet has a twitter account

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

2 hours ago, SL Xpress said:

Also, you guys were talking about Athen’s mistakes against Sparta. 

How about Thebes deciding to revolt against Macedon after the assasination of Philip II, with 20 year old whipper snapper Alexander way off in the Balkans campaigning? 

Alexander force marched in 3 weeks, turned the city to rubble, massacred the men and boys (other than some priests), and sold all the women and girls into slavery. 

Afterwards the other rebellious Greek city states, including Athens, decided they didn’t feel so rebellious after all. “We good, Alex. We good.”

Also, a special mention to Smyrna. After WWI the Greeks were trying to reestablish their historic presence in Anatolia, with Allied support. Then the Allies withdrew their support and Kemal kicked all the Greeks out by force, including the massacre of the Greeks at Smyrna. 

Ok now you’re just showboatin’!

[Schulz2.0 29040]

 

[Schulz2.0 29040]

 

[The Dog 44180]

 

[Bill Lumbergh 7212]

59 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

[Schulz2.0 29040]

1 hour ago, The Dog said:

 

 

[The Dog 44180]

 

[The Dog 44180]

 

[BamaATL 16593]

7 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

A rabbi and a priest attend a boxing match. They watch as the boxers come into the ring. The rabbi sees one of the boxers cross himself. So the rabbi turns to the priest and asks, "What does that mean?" The priest says, "Not a damn thing if the man can't fight."

 

[statsman 5500]

The report about the “mobiks” being sold to Wagner? Notice that they were from Crimea? Russia is very careful to feed non-ethnic Russians, convicts and Chechens into the meat grinder. The average ethnic Russian has been shielded from how bad things have gone. 
 
If the counter is successful, it won’t be a slaughter of Russians. It will involve a lightning encirclement of forces and a capture of a ton of Russian soldiers. The best path for Ukraine is to fight a 21st century war against these 19th century savages. 

[Born to Run 6583]

 

Farm people
Book wavers, soul savers
Love teachers
Just lit to pop and nobody is gonna stop

[MissingInAction 25300]

23 hours ago, The Dog said:

Greatest dick pic ever.

[Rimbo 26430]

44 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

[Schulz2.0 29040]

Good interview with former General David Patraeus about the counter offensive.

 

 

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

Just watched first couple of minutes of interview.

LET’S FUCKING GOOOOOO

[statsman 5500]

51 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

Good interview with former General David Patraeus about the counter offensive.

 

 

This is great, actually. Petraeus points out the reasons for optimism, and the English guy points out the ways that Ukraine will be going in weaker than we would ever ask our troops to go in. The US army rolls behind a forward constant barrage of precise artillery, with air superiority established, and effectively, an endless supply of munitions. We’re expecting Ukraine to move without air superiority and to ration their ammunition. Also, to use a mix of vehicles and armaments. 

Edited June 4, 2023 by statsman

[statsman 5500]

It’s not good that the Chinese PLA is refusing to talk with our military. I think we’re counting on them being one of the factors keeping Russia from going nuclear. 

[RDCanecutter 26551]

11 hours ago, BamaATL said:

Talk about begging to see what a storm shadow can do up close and personal, wouldn't break my heart if a bunch of Chechens suffocate to death in a mine though

 

The Chechens just got the caint-heppits when it comes to social media.

[Sawbonz 27777]

4 hours ago, The Dog said:

 

What’s the toilet and washing machine situation?

[Gatorubet 30401]

On 2/21/2022 at 7:39 PM, gmr548 said:

No one is getting into a shooting war with Russia over this. And that is the right decision, frankly. That’s an incredibly dangerous prospect.

What the west can do is make this very, very costly and embarrassing. The US has played this relatively well so far. American/British intel had the correct read. If the US can successfully parlay that decision into bringing Germany fully on board with heavy economic sanctions, up to and including NS2, you could end up with Russia making huge human and financial sacrifice to occupy a war torn Ukraine, with opposition forces armed by the west, severely limiting Russia’s ability to project military power elsewhere; additional sanctions and loss of access to Germans as energy customers creating major economic headwinds; and Finland and Sweden saying “nah fuck this we are not next” and joining NATO, into which they’d be integrated in like a week.

Who is the winner there?

Pretty damn good crystal ball there.   Speed of NATO membership notwithstanding. 

[atomheartbevo 90053]

1 hour ago, Sawbonz said:

What’s the toilet and washing machine situation?

They are being looted a second time?

[atomheartbevo 90053]

Someday, we'll be able to look back and *maybe* somebody will be able to point to a moment in time and say "this was the end of the beginning of everything that's happened over the last 10 years between Ukraine and Russia" as well as "this is the beginning of the end for Putin" and I have a feeling those moments will be within a month or two of this week.

It's fucking late, and I've been on the road all day, so that's not the most coherent thought I've had today, but when I don't follow the thread closely for a day or two, and then jump in and read everything I've missed, and see Russians shelling their own territory, Russians looting their own territory, and a bit of unrest in St. Petersburg, i just feel like the shitstorm that seems to be building in Russia all of the sudden took several steps forward.

Edited June 4, 2023 by atomheartbevo

[Macanudo 13090]

I did not have "Putin has his own Rasputin" on my bingo card.

[atomheartbevo 90053]

18 minutes ago, Macanudo said:

I did not have "Putin has his own Rasputin" on my bingo card.

It starts to make a lot of sense though, when you consider that he's got an imperial bent of sorts, and acts like he's an tsar.

I am a bit surprised as well, but if he's putting things in the hands of God, it explains so much with how poorly this has went.

[The Dog 44180]

Quite a prediction from squirrel: