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Русский корабль - иди нахуй

Eastwood

By Eastwood
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DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt

DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301

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Something else that I keep thinking about: Poland.

At some point I think their calculus changes and they decide it’s in their best interest to officially enter this war.

Their neighbor, who has stated their intentions to destroy Poland, is perpetuating genocide against their other neighbor. At what point do they decide enough is enough and enter the war?

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AUS-97HORN
AUS-97HORN

For the love of Christ woman,  stop posting the same fucking thing every 20 mins just to make your neurotic self feel better.     Bring something useful to the thread other than your inane babbli

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InkaUtexas
InkaUtexas

I volunteered today. Log/Admin role to replace people for 30-60 days. The operation is in the west, or should the Orcs win will be pulled back behind the NATO wall. Either way the humanitarian effort

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MissingInAction

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7 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

Something else that I keep thinking about: Poland.

At some point I think their calculus changes and they decide it’s in their best interest to officially enter this war.

Their neighbor, who has stated their intentions to destroy Poland, is perpetuating genocide against their other neighbor. At what point do they decide enough is enough and enter the war?

I think the only realistic possibility of Polish involvement would be in a humanitarian sense. The guise of it anyway.

Like, oh hey guys, 50k polish volunteers just showed up in Kyiv to uh pass out blankets and soup. Oh those aren't tanks, they're taco trucks.

Edited by MissingInAction
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Schulz2.0

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35 minutes ago, The Dog said:

The counteroffensive of Ukraine has begun? Looks like it is now

On the Zaporozhye Front, the Armed Forces of Ukraine switched from preparatory strikes and attacks by light forces to a full-fledged attempt to break through the front in the Orekhov region. All signs point to this. Namely:

- The use of great forces.
— Appearance of Leopard 2 tanks in battle.
“Attack in three directions at once and continuous pressure.
- The first results and positions recaptured from the Russian army.

There is no point in guessing whether the breakthrough will be successful, especially since we do not fully understand what results the Armed Forces of Ukraine have already achieved. Simply because the only source of information is the Russian side. But even from their messages, you can learn some information.

To begin with, they do not hesitate to report on the local successes of the Armed Forces of Ukraine - the liberation of 1-3 small settlements or their outskirts. In addition, the rhetoric of the Z-channels is strongly reminiscent of the one that was at the very beginning of the Izyum operation. It takes 2-3 days for them to begin to recognize the obvious. I do not rule out that the same thing may happen on the Zaporozhye front.

However, the attacks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine cannot be taken too optimistically now either. As I said, so far we see only an attempt to break through. This is a war between two sides. And it is not at all necessary that the Ukrainian army will win all the battles. Now we need to observe and analyze what is happening, keeping a sober head. It is important that the main direction for the first attempt was exactly Melitopol. About why, in my opinion, it is preferable, I wrote back in the spring: https://t.me/arrowsmap/65. In short, this is the closest road to the Crimea and to the “land corridor” of the Russian army.

I note that any offensive implies losses. You remember the classic formula of 3 to 1 and even 5 to 1 - the necessary advantage of the attacking side over the defending one. Including margin for losses. Therefore, there is no need to perceive the demonstrated photos and videos with burning Ukrainian equipment as some kind of critical factor. It is better to soberly evaluate what we see. In the meantime, there are a maximum of 4 Leopard 2 tanks (1 destroyed and 3 damaged) and about ten armored personnel carriers / infantry fighting vehicles. If this is all that the Russian side can show as "huge losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine", then the offensive is super-successful. And most importantly, losses at the very first stage of a breakthrough are always the largest. But what will happen after this breakthrough and whose army will lose more - we'll see.

In the next 1-2 days I'm waiting for an update of the situation. Either the Armed Forces of Ukraine will continue to break through and the truth will no longer be hidden - there will be evidence of a successful attack. Or they will withdraw and inflict new blows somewhere in neighboring areas. In the worst case scenario, the APU has a couple of weeks for such attempts. And if they all turn out to be unsuccessful, then it will already be possible to talk about a certain failure of the offensive, and the troops will have to reorganize and change their plans. But something tells me we won't see it.

This map is from my post on April 21st. I highlighted on it the directions in which strikes are now taking place, and the thin arrows are what I assumed back then.

Subscribe to my channel, we will follow the events at the front together

 

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Gatorubet

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Those vehicles look awfully close together.  Hope they didn't jump the gun on letting the fields dry out.
Good point.  Another thing: the Ukrainians are attacking, not defending.  One of the greatest experts on world war two tank matters is Stephen Zaloga.   In his book Armored Thunderbolt -  about Sherman tanks in World War II, he presented very compelling evidence that the single biggest factor involved in tank losses in tank-on-Tank battles was NOT how thick the armor, how deadly the cannon, or other technical matters you would assume make the critical difference.    Instead, it turns out that being the invading aggressor always led to a large number of those invading tanks being destroyed when compared to tanks in a defensive position utilizing defensive cover.
Even the widely criticized, Sherman tanks (and tank destroyers with Sherman cannon and frames) were able to destroy several panzer battalions in the battle of Arracourt when the panzer’s were on the attack. The Germans lost a bunch of armor during the battle of the bulge as well when they were once again the invading aggressor.   
The US lost more Shermans when we advanced than when we defended. The problem being, we were always advancing.  The good news was the Sherman was extremely mechanically reliable, and even though they were minor improvements throughout the war, none of them were major design changes that required the assembly lines to stop.  Unlike the over engineered German tanks, the Shermans were reliable and easily fixed on the battlefield. My father drove his Sherman from France through Belgium, took the Remagen Bridge and advanced through Germany’s Rhineland until his division was stopped in Czechoslovakia. They were told the war was over, and per orders, he simply parked his tank and returned to Germany for occupation duty. 
 
tl;dr version
Ukraine gonna lose more tanks as they are on the offensive, facing well defended positions with mines and artillery already having sighted in the ranges.   It can’t be prevented in a war without air superiority. 
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Parliament

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1 hour ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

Something else that I keep thinking about: Poland.

At some point I think their calculus changes and they decide it’s in their best interest to officially enter this war.

Their neighbor, who has stated their intentions to destroy Poland, is perpetuating genocide against their other neighbor. At what point do they decide enough is enough and enter the war?

When the US tells them they are free to use the weapons we sold them in direct conflict with Russia.  Like that very instant.  One presumes they have all their stuff at the border with the engines idling.

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DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt

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13 minutes ago, Parliament said:

When the US tells them they are free to use the weapons we sold them in direct conflict with Russia.  Like that very instant.  One presumes they have all their stuff at the border with the engines idling.

I tend to think it would happen if there are indicators that this counteroffensive is stalling and/or the outcome of the war is in doubt/momentum somehow starts to swing back towards a stalemate.

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atomheartbevo

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48 minutes ago, NoRagrets said:

How crazy is it that there’s a modern war going without meaningful air assets on either side?

We are getting into some creepy uncharted territory, where both sides have decent numbers of modern MANPADs and anti-air systems, something the US has not really faced.

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DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt

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That tweet re: sanctions avoidance is maddening.

Bring the fucking hammer on all 5 of those countries.

Also, we were assured by many here that Russia wouldn’t be able to produce these weapons on an ongoing basis. That turned out to be completely wrong.

Edited by DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt
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JesusSweatDuck

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1 minute ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

That tweet re: sanctions avoidance is maddening.

Bring the fucking hammer on all 5 of those countries.

Also, we were was assured by many here that Russia wouldn’t be able to produce these weapons on an ongoing basis. That turned out to be completely wrong.

I think the question is if this is nation state supported or just happening because of morally bankrupt companies.  Now the nations have a responsibility to crack down on it obviously.

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DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt

DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301

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1 minute ago, JesusSweatDuck said:

I think the question is if this is nation state supported or just happening because of morally bankrupt companies.  Now the nations have a responsibility to crack down on it obviously.

Cool. Hammer the shit out of them and let know they can come back into the fold once they’re in compliance.

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Trey3216

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7 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

That tweet re: sanctions avoidance is maddening.

Bring the fucking hammer on all 5 of those countries.

Also, we were assured by many here that Russia wouldn’t be able to produce these weapons on an ongoing basis. That turned out to be completely wrong.

Well, it's taken them quite a while to be able to find the shit.   Now we get to find it too.  And there's going to be a lot shit handed out over it.  

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utee94

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3 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Well, it's taken them quite a while to be able to find the shit.   Now we get to find it too.  And there's going to be a lot shit handed out over it.  

It's also evident that Russia is not able to produce the weapons in the same volumes as before.  The noose tightened, a handful of folks slipped through it, but they're being identified and presumably dealt with.  I hope those dealings are swift and harsh.

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SydneyCarton

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Sanctions can take time, and negotiating and using diplomatic channels with other countries can be complex, frustrating, and generally a fucking mess.

 

You know what is NOT a mess? Calling all of those chip companies and telling them in no uncertain terms that if they make ANY sales to ANY of those countries starting tomorrow, and the US finds out about it, they're fucking toast. We can do that today. 

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