Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[We’reTexas 1473]

Speculation that this could be the first strike:

 

 

[InkaUtexas 26012]

48 minutes ago, RDCanecutter said:

It was explained to me that every group in the Balkans at some point ruled most of the Balkans, and now every group still thinks they should.

When working my final thesis in History the subject was historical wars. I interviewed Colonel Fontenot. He led the first group over the Sava. His advice. If you think you know the Balkans wait 5 minutes. Like Texas weather. 

My interpreter. Kid spoke MTV English and was 15. Walking around Bihac one day he says yeah, that is where a massacre happened. I said when. He said in the 1500's. They see history differently. 

Plus side, kid had a great cross over, could shoot hoops, and his uncle had damn good weed. 

[SL Xpress 7516]

7 minutes ago, RDCanecutter said:

It was explained to me that every group in the Balkans at some point ruled most of the Balkans, and now every group still thinks they should.

Yes, but add to that one group is like nitrogen, another group is like oxygen, a third group is like nitric acid, and their historical grievances are like fuel.

There’s no assimilation. No real mixing between groups. All of them kept their cultural identity by emphasizing marriage only within their cultural group.

While I’m not trying to put Tito on a pedestal, because he was truly a despicable despot, it does show how remarkable of a leader he was that he was able to utilize ruthless repression to keep the groups from killing one another. In some ways they were never more united in terms of their collective hate for Tito  

And he managed all this while navigating a surprising course between the Scylla and Charybdis of the Soviet Union and the west.

Plus there’s some Greek/Türkiye tensions reflected there, too.  Basically you have the Roman Catholic, the Russian Orthodox, and the Islamic cultures in close proximity. More to it than that, but that’s a decent shorthand  

 

[SL Xpress 7516]

53 minutes ago, JesusSweatDuck said:

Sure, could more be done?  Could those individuals walk further out on a ledge?  Absolutely.  But just being a realist, they're doing a lot, and pushing a ton of support forward.  I think if they get too far out, then they'll lose all support but deeper discussion on this requires us to move to the CR and I don't participate in that cesspool (hey Kirk!)

I’m saying fund your fucking mandates. That’s not a Republican/Democrat cloak room issue. That’s a responsible government issue. To me at least. 

[InkaUtexas 26012]

1 minute ago, SL Xpress said:

Yes, but add to that one group is like nitrogen, another group is like oxygen, a third group is like nitric acid, and their historical grievances are like fuel.

There’s no assimilation. No real mixing between groups. All of them kept their cultural identity by emphasizing marriage only within their cultural group.

While I’m not trying to put Tito on a pedestal, because he was truly a despicable despot, it does show how remarkable of a leader he was that he was able to utilize ruthless repression to keep the groups from killing one another. In some ways they were never more united in terms of their collective hate for Tito  

And he managed all this while navigating a surprising course between the Scylla and Charybdis of the Soviet Union and the west.

Plus there’s some Greek/Türkiye tensions reflected there, too.  Basically you have the Roman Catholic, the Russian Orthodox, and the Islamic cultures in close proximity. More to it than that, but that’s a decent shorthand  

 

Wrong Sir. I know many families that were inter married. Not just in the cities. The difference is territory. It is about farm and grazing land. And there is very little Greek until you get into Macedonia. It is more Ottoman vs. Austro-Hungary vs. the Slavic states. 

Your posts are damn good, but this is a subject near and dear to me. The fake concept that it was religion vs. religion is BS. 

At the Battle of Kosovo, the Bosnians held the right flank and guarded the Serbs. An overlooked component of the regions history. 

[SL Xpress 7516]

2 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Wrong Sir. I know many families that were inter married. Not just in the cities. The difference is territory. It is about farm and grazing land. And there is very little Greek until you get into Macedonia. It is more Ottoman vs. Austro-Hungary vs. the Slavic states. 

Your posts are damn good, but this is a subject near and dear to me. The fake concept that it was religion vs. religion is BS. 

At the Battle of Kosovo, the Bosnians held the right flank and guarded the Serbs. An overlooked component of the regions history. 

Oh, you know way more than me about the area, for sure.

But there's a reason the cultural identities are so strong. I'm not saying there aren't exceptions. But you simply cannot maintain those cultural identities over all these centuries if there are mass intermarriages. 

And yes, didn't mean to say it was only about the religion. I purposefully mentioned that was a shorthand, with the inaccuracies inherent in using shorthand. I do appreciate the correction. The last thing I want to appear as is someone correcting you on something I acknowledge you know way more about than me. The Greek stuff is mostly about Greece being a primary sponsor in the EU. Not as much about historical ties. But there are some Greek/Turkiye tensions based on Greek support for Croatia versus Turkish support for Bosnia. It's not a main driver for anything.

Mostly, like you said, it's all very complicated. 

[MillerEP 30492]

 

[Txzen 498]

Very good documentary from WSJ on the origins and workings of Wagner - apologies if already posted.

 

[Bevo 13589]

1 hour ago, InkaUtexas said:

Wrong Sir. I know many families that were inter married. Not just in the cities. The difference is territory. It is about farm and grazing land. And there is very little Greek until you get into Macedonia. It is more Ottoman vs. Austro-Hungary vs. the Slavic states. 

Your posts are damn good, but this is a subject near and dear to me. The fake concept that it was religion vs. religion is BS. 

At the Battle of Kosovo, the Bosnians held the right flank and guarded the Serbs. An overlooked component of the regions history. 

I don't want to get in the middle of this, but for argument's sake, here is a pic of a friend of mine from Macedonia:

 

[BamaATL 16593]

My kind of fishing

 

[Rimbo 26008]

9 minutes ago, Bevo said:

I don't want to get in the middle of this, but for argument's sake, here is a pic of a friend of mine from Macedonia:

 

[InkaUtexas 26012]

2 hours ago, SL Xpress said:

Oh, you know way more than me about the area, for sure.

But there's a reason the cultural identities are so strong. I'm not saying there aren't exceptions. But you simply cannot maintain those cultural identities over all these centuries if there are mass intermarriages. 

And yes, didn't mean to say it was only about the religion. I purposefully mentioned that was a shorthand, with the inaccuracies inherent in using shorthand. I do appreciate the correction. The last thing I want to appear as is someone correcting you on something I acknowledge you know way more about than me. The Greek stuff is mostly about Greece being a primary sponsor in the EU. Not as much about historical ties. But there are some Greek/Turkiye tensions based on Greek support for Croatia versus Turkish support for Bosnia. It's not a main driver for anything.

Mostly, like you said, it's all very complicated. 

Greece supported the Serbs. The Vatican supported the Croats. Some think the Vatican's proclamations about defenders of the East is what led to Krompir taking over as a hard liner in Croatia. 

And Greece has blocked most movements into the EU. They are still fighting about Macedonia. 

The turks, and Iran and Saudi's supported the Bosnians. 

Back to Ukraine. 

[Deej 76855]

2 hours ago, We’reTexas said:

Speculation that this could be the first strike:

 

 

"Russia is in control." - Mullet Free

[atomheartbevo 89750]

Gotta say, when they want to blast out photos and videos of Russians being killed (or don't care if the troops are doing it), it's a steady stream of stuff being geolocated by the OSINT folks.

But when they want to clam up for opsec reasons, they mostly claim up.

[atomheartbevo 89750]

Russia seeing a big chunk of the NATO lineup up close and personal.

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-06-09-23/index.html

British Royal Air Force Typhoons scrambled twice over one day to intercept several Russian aircraft flying close to NATO airspace, the UK’s Ministry of Defense said in a statement Friday.

On Thursday evening: RAF Typhoons based at Amari Air Base in Estonia and Swedish Air Force Gripens sought to intercept a Russian Air Force IL-20 “Coot- A” and Su-27 “Flanker-B” flying close to NATO and Swedish airspace, the ministry said. 

“The Russian aircraft were not complying with international norms by failing to communicate with the relevant Flight Information Regions (FIRs), however they remained in international airspace and flew in a professional manner,” the statement said. 

On Friday morning: RAF Typhoons were scrambled again to intercept one Antonov An-12 “Cub” and one An-72 “Coaler” flying south from mainland Russia toward the Kaliningrad region, the ministry said.

“The RAF fighters were later re-tasked to intercept two Tupolev Tu-22M ‘BACKFIRES’ and two Su-30 SM FLANKER H, also flying south from mainland Russia over the Gulf of Finland and the Baltic Sea,” the ministry said. “The Russian aircraft were once again not complying with international norms by failing to liaise appropriately with local FIRs.”

The British were joined by the Finnish Air Force to escort the Russian aircraft through the Gulf of Finland and later handed off to the Swedish Air Force.  

“Portuguese and Romanian F16s, based out of Siauliai Airbase in Lithuania, were also scrambled to escort the Russian aircraft as they transited further south through the Latvian and Lithuanian FIRs,” the UK ministry added.

“These intercepts are a stark reminder that the RAF is always ready to defend our skies and those of our allies, while the coordinated action by several air forces serves as a clear demonstration of the value of our international alliances,” UK Defense Secretary Ben Wallace is quoted as saying in the statement.

A pilot who was involved with the scramble said that “although there is an apparent increase in regional activity, these intercepts remain normal jogging for us and we are ready to respond to any task that may pose a threat to regional security,” according to the statement. 

NATO is currently conducting naval exercises in the Baltic Sea and, “as expected, Russian aircraft have been monitoring allied vessels throughout,” the ministry said.

[InkaUtexas 26012]

15 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Gotta say, when they want to blast out photos and videos of Russians being killed (or don't care if the troops are doing it), it's a steady stream of stuff being geolocated by the OSINT folks.

But when they want to clam up for opsec reasons, they mostly claim up.

[BamaATL 16593]

So the Bradley loss, pretty scary moments in this in terms of fields of fire and the like, but the vehicle seemed to perform to protect the guys after the mine strike (or airstrike, not sure honestly).  Small video, you will need to go full screen on it.  

 

[statsman 5473]

1 hour ago, Txzen said:

Very good documentary from WSJ on the origins and workings of Wagner - apologies if already posted.

 

It is fantastic and only 40 minutes 

[Pato del Muerto 52532]

1 hour ago, Bevo said:

I don't want to get in the middle of this, but for argument's sake, here is a pic of a friend of mine from Macedonia:

 

[PTINS 3472]

2 hours ago, Bevo said:

I don't want to get in the middle of this, but for argument's sake, here is a pic of a friend of mine from Macedonia:

 

Appears she likes Pearl Necklaces.

[KYHorn 17103]

Might be a big night. 

Russian Sources are reporting that at least 10 Brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces have been observed arriving near the Frontline in the Zaporizhzhia Region particularly near the City of Orikhiv where Forward-Observers stated the Ukrainian Armored Columns they have seen are 3x the Size of the Advances in recent days. Many Russian Accounts have stated they believe tonight will so far be the “Toughest Night” of the Ukrainian Offensive with preparations being made by Air, Armor, and Artillery Assets to “Hold the Line.”

[atomheartbevo 89750]

If we've seen some ugly losses on the Ukrainian side, I can only imagine what it's like on the Russian side, with the recently mobilized and their few weeks of training.

[SL Xpress 7516]

 

[SL Xpress 7516]

Institute for the Study of War has a big update. Lots to unpack. But I want to focus on a specific part of this update:

"Several independent sources reported additional evidence that an internal explosion likely destroyed the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (KHPP) dam on June 6. Norwegian seismic monitoring center NORSAR reported that seismic data indicates that an explosion occurred on June 6 at 2:54am local time, about the same time as the collapse of the KHPP dam.[30] NORSAR seismologist Volker Oye stated that seismic data indicated a pulse of energy that was “typical of an explosion.”[31] Seismic data cannot locate the energy pulse of the explosion to a more exact location than within 20 to 30km of the KHPP, however.[32] Oye stated that it would be an “unusual coincidence” if something other than an explosion caused the energy pulse.[33] The New York Times reported that an unnamed senior White House official stated that US spy satellites equipped with infrared sensors detected an explosion at the KHPP dam before it collapsed.[34] The Wall Street Journal reported that multiple engineers and munition experts assessed that an explosive blast likely detonated at a specific point or multiple points of weakness, which destroyed the KHPP dam.[35] ISW previously reported that engineering and munitions experts that the New York Times interviewed believe that a deliberate explosion caused the KHPP dam’s collapse.[36] The preponderance of evidence suggests that a deliberate explosion damaged the KHPP dam. ISW continues to assess that the balance of evidence, reasoning, and rhetoric suggests that the Russians deliberately damaged the dam.[37]"

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-9-2023

 

Edited June 10, 2023 by SL Xpress

[SL Xpress 7516]

Haunting photo:

 

[The Dog 44070]

[Rimbo 26008]

https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1667322022014140417?t=kk7bybpqzNVBXG057_rZtg&s=19

Perspective:  • so far Ukraine has sent in 10% of the assembled force for the offensive • russia released video of the destruction of 1.25% of the force sent in, which equals • 0.13% of the assembled force for the offensive.  99.87% of the offensive force is still in the fight

Edited June 10, 2023 by Rimbo

[Rimbo 26008]

[MillerEP 30492]

5 hours ago, BamaATL said:

So the Bradley loss, pretty scary moments in this in terms of fields of fire and the like, but the vehicle seemed to perform to protect the guys after the mine strike (or airstrike, not sure honestly).  Small video, you will need to go full screen on it.  

 

This backs up my initial thought. The tank with the mine-clearing gear got hit. So the rest had to go around. Since it wasn't cleared a few others hit mines/lost some tracks, then were hit by artillery. Russians took pictures as a big win. The second force rolled in, rescued the first group, and then pulled out, with 1 being hit in the process (seen here). So the main picture is early on, the second with what looks 8 Bradleys all there is when 5 showed up as the rescue crew, 4 of those were able to rescue everyone and then left, and the one that was hit stayed.

Edited June 10, 2023 by MillerEP

[atomheartbevo 89750]

1 hour ago, Rimbo said:

https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1667322022014140417?t=kk7bybpqzNVBXG057_rZtg&s=19

Perspective:  • so far Ukraine has sent in 10% of the assembled force for the offensive • russia released video of the destruction of 1.25% of the force sent in, which equals • 0.13% of the assembled force for the offensive.  99.87% of the offensive force is still in the fight

And there's reports from some of the Russian social media that the Russians were pushing their reserves of 40,000 up to reinforce various areas. That seems like a small number, but feels like it tracks with the numbers that they were able to mobilize (including as part of their yearly enlistment) since not everybody they mobilize will be on the front line (nor will they be supplied properly). If the Russians have an actual infantry reserve of 40,000, that's impressive on their part. I mean, it's going to be meat for the grinder since they weren't properly trained.

Edit: And 40,000 is not a lot of troops when you look at the size of the front(s) that are being hit with the counteroffensive.

Edited June 10, 2023 by atomheartbevo

[MillerEP 30492]

 

[SL Xpress 7516]

4 hours ago, MillerEP said:

 

It's infuriating on some level to see the Russian online propagandists paint that attack as an attack on civilians. I've seen it portrayed as tourists staying there (yeah, right) or a children's center. You'd think I'd be numb to the hokum. Sometimes it's so blatant, and about a subject where a casual observer simply won't have access to the truth of it, that it drives me a little nuts. This is one of those. 

[AUS-97HORN 11810]

8 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

 

It's infuriating on some level to see the Russian online propagandists paint that attack as an attack on civilians. I've seen it portrayed as tourists staying there (yeah, right) or a children's center. You'd think I'd be numb to the hokum. Sometimes it's so blatant, and about a subject where a casual observer simply won't have access to the truth of it, that it drives me a little nuts. This is one of those. 

[Schulz2.0 28982]

 

[SL Xpress 7516]

BTW, from what I'm reading, the attack towards Tokmak is concentrating on the western flank, because there's a height advantage there. You'll see some reports of Ukrainian forces possibly skipping Robotyne, which may or may not be true to an extent, but a lot of it isn't because they're just leaving entrenched Russian forces there while they head further down the road towards Tokmak. It's because that's not even where the main thrust is right now. The road follows a "valley" of sorts, although there's no such thing as a true valley in this area. But better to command the heights for the attack on Tokmak than to leave the enemy there while attacking the town. 

I also want to reiterate - which is something I've said for months now - that excessive expectations are the enemy of the Ukrainian forces to some extent. Some people in Western audiences are hoping/expecting a Kharkiv type of advancement where they breakthrough and then take over 30 kilometers per day in a mad rush to form a new front line. This was always going to be more methodical due to limitations for what the Ukrainian forces have at their disposal versus the sheer manpower involved in the Russian defenses.

Some key things to remind ourselves of (IMO) as the counter offensive unfolds:

- Russia has no capacity for offensive operations now, and may not be able to generate it for the remainder of the war outside of private military groups. Their elite formations have been smashed. They stripped their training infrastructure to deploy them as troops right now. They're not reconstituting their troop organizations, but merely throwing untrained bodies into previously elite formations and calling it a day. They rely on outdated, unmaintained equipment for a lot of their brick and mortar military infrastructure. I'm not trying to say they're not dangerous any more. They are. They retain elements of a serious military force. They retain the advantage in weapons and technology in specific areas. But the winter offensives, and Bakhmut specifically, were their last hurrah in terms of effectively taking any more Ukrainian territory. They don't have the military infrastructure, particularly in term of their command structure - which is valued on other things beyond their capacity for leadership (political loyalty, non threat to the Kremlin) - to be able to generate the kind of capacity they held at the beginning of the invasion. It will take years and a level of competency they currently do not enjoy to rebuild that again. 

This is not a small thing. Above all else, it means any territory Ukraine recovers during this counter offensive is unlikely to be taken back unless a PMC gets involved.

- What's happening in Bakhmut is important, because those are veteran UAF troops without access to the latest western kit (they absolutely have western artillery among other things). They've made impressive advancements - 2 kilometers already, and have already entered the southwest part of the city - in an obvious effort to encircle Russian forces there. It shows Ukraine maintains offensive force generation capabilities even without Western armor. 

- The minimum goal for Ukraine is to show this isn't a standoff battle of attrition. To me they're already showing that, but my biases are extreme. They're already showing more promise in making advances than the Russians have since September. The truth is the West can afford to send a lot more in the way of equipment to Ukraine. It's a matter of political will. If Ukraine can show they have the capability of breaking through Russian lines of defense and establishing new front lines, but they need more support, that's a much better situation politically than a static front line that preserves western kit but does nothing to generate more support. 

- It's obvious that at least for a limited amount of time, Ukraine has all the artillery ammo they need. If you don't have any real air power, you have to have effective artillery. To me that will determine how long this counter offensive can be effective as much as anything else. As long as the artillery ammo holds out from the extreme usage they're putting it to at the moment, they'll be able to keep pushing forward. Once whatever stocks they've been able to build up have been depleted for the most part, we're back to a static line. That, to me, is as critical a time line as Ukraine faces at the moment. 

- I still wonder if Ukraine is waiting to open up another attack vector, or exploit somewhere other than Tokmak. I don't have any opinion on what they should do. I don't know enough for that. But I do feel confident that Ukraine maintains a level of flexibility and mobility in terms of where they can move troops to, how quickly and effectively they can be employed, that Russia simply lacks. Throughout history the main advantage of the attacker is to be able to choose time and place for the battle. Based on what we've seen from Ukraine command previously - specifically the whole Kherson versus Kharkiv dynamic - I'm unconvinced they don't have something major hidden up their sleeves that has yet to be revealed. 

[Schulz2.0 28982]

 

[Schulz2.0 28982]

[SL Xpress 7516]

"Or else we are going to die here."

I mean, there's surrender. Feels like a choice, you fat fuck.

"...increased reports of Russian casualties as they withdraw through their own minefields."

Oh, that's terrible. Hahahahahahahahaha!

"Russian airforce has been unusually active over Southern Ukraine...."

Lack of air cover, from either the ground or air, is the biggest weakness of this attack. The Russians are simply able to fly in the area with impunity. I remember in Kherson, Ukraine actually had local air superiority in certain areas during the offensive. Now it feels like troops are simply attacking naked to the skies. That's a bummer. Even if they're not all that effective tactically, there's still a helpless feeling watching those jets fly overhead knowing there's nothing your side can do about it. I watched a recent video of a couple of Russian fighters dropping what looked like cluster bombs almost randomly. Regardless of whether or not they hit important targets, there's a feeling the next one could. I'd love to start seeing reports of Russian fighters being taken down, even sporadically. 

[Schulz2.0 28982]

 

[KYHorn 17103]

 

 

[KYHorn 17103]

1 hour ago, SL Xpress said:

Their elite formations have been smashed. They stripped their training infrastructure to deploy them as troops right now. They're not reconstituting their troop organizations, but merely throwing untrained bodies into previously elite formations and calling it a day.

And they're only getting worse...

 

 

[SL Xpress 7516]

12 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

 

 

I mean, they look trained. There's a clear priority on providing cover fire, and every soldier is cognizant of maintaining firing lines and avoiding friendly fire. Doesn't sound like a big deal, but I've seen so many videos of Russian assault teams in Bakhmut where there's no real rhyme or reason to it. Just sending in meat for the meat grinder. And remember, many of these troops are volunteers from the recently mobilized with no prior military experience. Just the training provided by Western allies and the inhouse training in Ukraine. Don't know anything specific about this element of course, but I know that's true in a general way. Of course, this could be from Bakhmut, and many of those guys have years of experience. 

Not every assault is going to be this straight forward, but I still appreciate the footage. They all have to be incredibly tense situations. The more you do the more you trust the people next to you to do their job right, and the more effective the team becomes. This will have to be repeated over and over again throughout the country. Glad to see them honing their skills in what seems like an effective execution. I admire the Ukrainians who volunteered for this duty quite a bit. 

Thanks for the video.

[KYHorn 17103]

  

 

 

[KYHorn 17103]

Not sure I could bring myself to put my hand there 

 

Edited June 10, 2023 by KYHorn

[KYHorn 17103]

 Video of offensive actions near Bakhmut by 🇺🇦Ukrainian fighters of the 2nd assault battalion of the 3rd separate assault brigade

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1667541656034238465?t=SZYPGsEfnAzBPG0EWTqFvg&s=19 

 

[SL Xpress 7516]

4 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

 Video of offensive actions near Bakhmut by 🇺🇦Ukrainian fighters of the 2nd assault battalion of the 3rd separate assault brigade

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1667541656034238465?t=SZYPGsEfnAzBPG0EWTqFvg&s=19 

That's using a very liberal definition of the term offensive actions. 

[Scheiss Meister 8408]

55 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

 

 

That video looks a lot like footage from Okinawa in 1945, without the flamethrowers.  Corkscrew and blowtorch, minus the blowtorch.

[The Dog 44070]

 

[Schulz2.0 28982]

28 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

 Video of offensive actions near Bakhmut by 🇺🇦Ukrainian fighters of the 2nd assault battalion of the 3rd separate assault brigade

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1667541656034238465?t=SZYPGsEfnAzBPG0EWTqFvg&s=19 

 

Is the Roshel going on an erotic journey from Milan to Minsk?

[Brisketexan 105168]

Is the Roshel going on an erotic journey from Milan to Minsk?

Hopefully with a sojourn in Melitopol.