Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[bolverk 29805]

[atomheartbevo 90040]

 

From a few hours ago, but interesting.

[atomheartbevo 90040]

[The Dog 44180]

 

[bolverk 29805]

 

[atomheartbevo 90040]

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-66006142

"Wagner troops have crossed Russia's border with Ukraine in multiple locations, the mercenary group's leader has now claimed.

In new audio recordings published on Telegram, Yevgeny Prigozhin says his mercenaries were "embraced" by border guards as they passed through.

He also claimed Russian conscripts ordered to stop them moved aside to allow his troops to pass, adding they are "now entering Rostov" - a city in south-western Russia near the Ukrainian border.

"But if anyone stands in our way, we will destroy everything that's in our way... We are moving forward, we'll go all the way," Prigozhin added.

The BBC is not able to verify the claims and no images or videos of Wagner forces in Russia have yet emerged."

[SimonBolivar 10961]

 

 

This guy is like an interdemensional cable channel from Rick and Morty

Edited June 23, 2023 by SimonBolivar

[SL Xpress 7518]

3 minutes ago, SquishMitten said:

I guess I see three possibilities for this right now:

1) It’s legit, and Prigelpotomus has decided that they’re all either going to die on the defense from Russian shelling or they can go out making a stand against Russian MOD,

2) It’s staged so that Russia can pull out of Ukraine, blaming it on civil unrest rather than defeat, or 

3) It’s staged so that Russia can sabotage the ZPP and claim it was Wagner rather than state sponsored. 

I gotta admit, the level of layers necessary and the sheer amount of people who would have to keep their mouth shut for this to succeed as a staged event makes it unbelievable for me. 

As in, literally, I don’t believe it. 

I find it way more likely this is the inevitable result of poor communication (as in practically zero) among all interested parties. Everyone outside the inner circle literally communicates with Putin by uploading videos to the internet. Putin makes sure he deincentivizes anyone bring him bad news, insists he’s better informed than they are, with the implicit threat of being tortured and killed if they don’t see reality correctly. 

The MOD has no interest in communicating directly with Prighozin. Prighozin uses humiliation and condescension to try to get his way with Shiogu and the MOD. A lot of the actions by all parties have been performed in a vacuum of specific and instructions. The very fact Putin has done nothing has been interpreted by all sides in varying ways. 

I mean, how many times have you guys seen confrontations taken to absurd levels by the mere fact the different sides don’t even communicate with each other any more - or certainly not effectively - and so everyone assumes the worst intent and behavior of the other side, and repercussions are escalated as preemptive strikes? I find it to be common place. Way more common place than tens of thousands of people pretending like a conflict exists when it really doesn’t, up to and including killing folks on either side of it. 

I’ll have to give a big tip of the hat to Ivan if that’s what they’ve managed to pull off, but I don’t think there’s any real chance of it. 

[RDCanecutter 26550]

2 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

So, first things first... I can't pronounce either dude's name, so I've decided to call them Pierogi and Shogun.  And as I understand it, supposedly Pierogi has declared war on Shogun and the MOD?  I mean...I'd watch that.

And, I really like pierogis.

You can pronounce Prigozhin. It is an amalgam of three Mexican words.

PRI: All-knowing benevolent party of institutionalized revolution.

GOOOOOOOOOOOOOO(L): Ecstatic realization that life now has deep meaning, unlike 12 seconds ago.

CHIN(ga'o): Unsure about this one, I hear it a lot when people see me walk up, so I assume it's really polite. Use a Northern Mexican accent eg papi shulo the ch sounds like sh, if any Russians complain, chingao.

[AUS-97HORN 11874]

Russia:

 

[Rimbo 26417]

12 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

That pilot's name? Ben Richards.

[Auto Driller 2506]

Here’s my theory:

- Prigozhin started 100% all in on team Putin / take over Ukraine / split the loot.

- He always had political ambitions of his own but was satisfied with the billions he already had for the time being.

- He realized through his “front line” experience with Wagner that Russia was not going to win the war.

- Started to ask himself “how can I take advantage of this situation?” Concludes that the dream of ruling over conquered Ukraine may be gone but the bigger prize remains - control of Russia itself.

- Starts PR campaign blaming the MOD for lack of shells or whatever. Basically trying to draw a line between his camp and the people causing the war to be lost.

- Begins stashing away ammunition and other materiel that was meant for the fight in Bakhmut and elsewhere.

- Sets up the coup plan.

- Putin / MOD get wind of something sneaky going on and outlaws PMCs and states that Wagner must sign contracts by 7/1.

- This forces Prigozhin to put the plan into action sooner than he had planned.

- Fireworks begin.

[Post Oak 20326]

 

[Rimbo 26417]

 

 

[The Dog 44180]

 

[MillerEP 30567]

^Sounds about right
https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1672394047195951110?s=20

[InkaUtexas 26341]

4 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

So what if the Chechens back Wagner? Goat fucker supplies rank and file, and consolidates his control in the Caucus in the face of a weakened Putin/Russia. 

Hey Chechens, join us or we will fuck you up. And let's remember, Wagner now has its people in Russian aircraft. 

[Left Coast 875]

This is better than Christmas, and Ukraine couldn’t have asked for a better distraction than the drunk dude taking swings at the bouncers. 

[SimonBolivar 10961]

I'm calling it that very few PMC dudes do anything and Pringles is dead within a week.

[MillerEP 30567]

 

2 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

I'm calling it that very few PMC dudes do anything and Pringles is dead within a week.

Pretty much my bet. This is a desperate attempt, but I think he can do some damage on the way out.

[SL Xpress 7518]

7 minutes ago, Rimbo said:

 

 

I don't agree even a little bit with the facile comparison to Iraq and Afghanistan. Just an easy tweet to make that won't be challenged. 

The US won both conflicts with ease. They didn't administer either occupation with any element of competence. The two are not the same. They require different mindsets, and different skillsets. Not going into Iraq would not have made the US any more competent in Afghanistan. Going into Iraq did not make the US any more incompetent. 

The problem wasn't opening up two fronts. It was lacking the political will and acumen to set up a competent military occupation in either place. And actually, in terms of occupations, Afghanistan doesn't really matter. There's no real geopolitical importance to it from a US perspective. It's not rich in natural resources. It's not going to develop a booming economy. 

Obviously the US should not have gone into Iraq, and part of it was the lack of a post war strategy. But more so it was about going in under fraudulent auspices. But from a military perspective there was no issue with opening up a second front for the US military the way Hertling is hinting at, and I resent its false implication. 

Doesn't change my very high opinion of Hertling, but I do not like this specific tweet. 

[Auto Driller 2506]

Whether the coup is successful or not is almost irrelevant. Putin and his propaganda arm can no longer say “everything is going according to plan”. This is a massive fuckup and embarrassment for the ruling class in Russia. And a lot of resources are going to be redirected from Ukraine to the interior of Russia in response.

[The Dog 44180]

 

[InkaUtexas 26341]

11 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

 

Pretty much my bet. This is a desperate attempt, but I think he can do some damage on the way out.

Then there are the oligarchs and other generals. They may see this as a time for a career move. Plus, the combat rank and file does not sound happy. Yeltsin took over more with less. One Makarov round ends this one way or the other. 

[bolverk 29805]

13 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

I don't agree even a little bit with the facile comparison to Iraq and Afghanistan. Just an easy tweet to make that won't be challenged. 

The US won both conflicts with ease. They didn't administer either occupation with any element of competence. The two are not the same. They require different mindsets, and different skillsets. Not going into Iraq would not have made the US any more competent in Afghanistan. Going into Iraq did not make the US any more incompetent. 

The problem wasn't opening up two fronts. It was lacking the political will and acumen to set up a competent military occupation in either place. And actually, in terms of occupations, Afghanistan doesn't really matter. There's no real geopolitical importance to it from a US perspective. It's not rich in natural resources. It's not going to develop a booming economy. 

Obviously the US should not have gone into Iraq, and part of it was the lack of a post war strategy. But more so it was about going in under fraudulent auspices. But from a military perspective there was no issue with opening up a second front for the US military the way Hertling is hinting at, and I resent its false implication. 

Doesn't change my very high opinion of Hertling, but I do not like this specific tweet. 

 

Let's not get distracted from Russia's ruin.

[Royalfan5 2355]

So is Wagner really going lean into Apocalypse Nowing it and have Ride of the Valkyries blaring from their column?

[Sawbonz 27775]

Man this thread turned wild. I really think Pirogue is going to be rolling into Moscow by next weekend. Any troops worth a shit for the MOD are deployed in Ukraine. Wagner troops are fighting for their lives at this point and going up against the equivalent of the Mississippi national guard and a bunch of county Deputy Dawgs. It will be like a hot knife through butter. Pirogue will be head of the Russian armed forces or will be occupying Moscow w Puta ruling in absentia from a bunker underneath Gelendzhik

[Neonmoon 38130]

22 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

I'm calling it that very few PMC dudes do anything and Pringles is dead within a week.

Pringles in my favorite misspelling of his name 

[Braff Zacklin 13672]

7 minutes ago, Royalfan5 said:

So is Wagner really going lean into Apocalypse Nowing it and have Ride of the Valkyries blaring from their column?

[Kwix 2259]

I prefer Prego over Ragu

[InkaUtexas 26341]

6 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

Man this thread turned wild. I really think Pirogue is going to be rolling into Moscow by next weekend. Any troops worth a shit for the MOD are deployed in Ukraine. Wagner troops are fighting for their lives at this point and going up against the equivalent of the Mississippi national guard and a bunch of county Deputy Dawgs. It will be like a hot knife through butter. Pirogue will be head of the Russian armed forces or will be occupying Moscow w Puta ruling in absentia from a bunker underneath Gelendzhik

Agree they are going to try. And Russia gave them a lot of tools.

"Fuck it Ivan, let's go fuck up Moscow. I hear they have VW's there vs. the crappy Lada we were promised."

"Sure Sergei, we are fucked either way. Plus I have never seen the Kremlin since I am from a shit hole in the Far East."  

 

[bolverk 29805]

So what about those other two Russian groups that were attacking up around Bilhorod? Freedom of Russia and the Russian neo-Nazis.

Anyone care to speculate if they'll jump into this fight to fuck shit up more?

[MillerEP 30567]

I always called him Priggy.

[InkaUtexas 26341]

1 minute ago, bolverk said:

So what about those other two Russian groups that were attacking up around Bilhorod? Freedom of Russia and the Russian neo-Nazis.

Anyone care to speculate if they'll jump into this fight to fuck shit up more?

Going back, they made outreach attempts to Pretzel. Called him a man of dignity, etc. They would be good allies for Wagner right about now. 

[Rimbo 26417]

19 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

 

[InkaUtexas 26341]

3 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

I always called him Priggy.

Can we settle on a name? I vote for Penis Wrinkle. 

[Francisco 2.0 32432]

 

 

[27-25 2056]

Just now, InkaUtexas said:

Can we settle on a name? I vote for Penis Wrinkle. 

Miss Priggy?

[Rimbo 26417]

1 minute ago, InkaUtexas said:

Can we settle on a name? I vote for Penis Wrinkle. 

Naw, my favorite thing over the past page or so is everyone misspelling Yvgvneeey Pissgrodin's name differently.

[InkaUtexas 26341]

1 minute ago, 27-25 said:

Miss Priggy?

Well he is a Penis and Wagner is a Wrinkle. Just need to use HIMARS to smooth it all out. 

[cactusflinthead 27615]

 

[NoRagrets 1133]

I like Pringles just for the autocorrect aspect on my iPhone

[MillerEP 30567]

 

 

Edited June 24, 2023 by MillerEP

[SL Xpress 7518]

23 minutes ago, Auto Driller said:

Here’s my theory:

- Prigozhin started 100% all in on team Putin / take over Ukraine / split the loot.

- He always had political ambitions of his own but was satisfied with the billions he already had for the time being.

- He realized through his “front line” experience with Wagner that Russia was not going to win the war.

- Started to ask himself “how can I take advantage of this situation?” Concludes that the dream of ruling over conquered Ukraine may be gone but the bigger prize remains - control of Russia itself.

- Starts PR campaign blaming the MOD for lack of shells or whatever. Basically trying to draw a line between his camp and the people causing the war to be lost.

- Begins stashing away ammunition and other materiel that was meant for the fight in Bakhmut and elsewhere.

- Sets up the coup plan.

- Putin / MOD get wind of something sneaky going on and outlaws PMCs and states that Wagner must sign contracts by 7/1.

- This forces Prigozhin to put the plan into action sooner than he had planned.

- Fireworks begin.

Here's my theory:

Convicted criminal and opportunist who makes connections with Putin while Putin is on his way up. Putin likes him and sees him as useful. Makes him a billionaire, places him in his inner circle. At some point Prighozin approaches Putin with the idea of starting up a private army, and how they could do the dirty work around the world that would be productive for Russia without the Russian military having to get its hands dirty. A Russian equivalent to Blackwater, only even more active and tied to the state. 

Wagner proves to be exceptionally useful in both Africa and Syria. They get shit done. The operation is competently run. They spend a lot of money on their personnel, making sure they're equipped extremely well. There's an esprit de corps among members that they're the best of the best. They're valued for their ruthlessness. The best soldiers in the Russian army often sign up with Wagner for the higher pay and the feeling of being with the best.

In the meantime Wagner becomes a major source of revenue and power for Prighozin. Putin values him as an asset outside the normal chain of command who is loyal to him. Other members of the inner circle are way of Prigozhin but feel helpless to do anything about it with him having Putin's personal blessing. Also, they see the value in what his organization brings - just wary of the risks but no way to communicate those to Putin in a way that makes sense.

Putin decides to invade Ukraine. The swift military action planned for goes to complete shit. The airborne units are left to be massacred after taking over the Antonov airport. The regular forces can't get their shit together, are bogged down by terrain, horrible logistics, and the internal corruption that pervades the regular army. Hence the need for something like Wagner in the first place.

Wagner troops in general create better results where ever they are deployed compared to the regular army. Again, they're better equipped, better trained, better morale. They're a private version of the most elite VDV units. 

The offensive bogs down. Prighozin is out of his mind with the incompetency of the Russian army, and being forced to work alongside these fools. They're lazy, stupid, have no sense of professionalism, and everyone is out to save their own skin. He somehow convinces Putin, whether directly or through a third party, to put Wagner in charge of an offensive and let him show how to effectively carry one out. The offensive chosen was in the direction of Bakhmut. 

As part of this effort he's given permission to recruit convicts out of the penal system to be used as meat. Prighozin is very charismatic, and as a former prisoner himself, he knows how to speak to these people in a compelling way. He signs up tens of thousands to supplement his forces.

Lacking armor and sufficient artillery under their direct control, Wagner develops the strategy of sending in convicts in waves of 5 or 6 at a time, ferreting out the placement of Ukrainian defenses and weak points. After either the convicts secure a point, or the defense is softened up sufficiently, they then send in the regular Wagner shock troops. This is done over and over relentlessly, in Soledar and then in Bakhmut itself. Given that this is the only spot along the entire front where any progress is being made whatsoever, it's seen as a success. 

At some point Prighozin is cut off from access to Putin. I have no idea when it occurs, but it obviously occurs. Given Russian politics and Prighozin's lack of a power base outside of Putin and Wagner, he chooses to go all in. Backing down at this point would mean losing everything to the long knives in Putin's inner circle. I don't know that he has a long term plan per se, other than like Baelish opined, chaos is a ladder. I can't imagine he saw himself as displacing Putin directly, but I certainly feel like he saw himself as a potential replacement for Putin, depending on how things worked out. 

Bakhmut is taken over, or at least the rubble of the town is taken over. Prighozin declares victory and begins to pull his forces out. Shiogu sees Prighozin's limited utility at an end, and makes a move to eliminate Wagner as a separate source of power. I'm assuming with Putin's blessing. Who knows, though. Maybe everyone is acting in a vacuum. 

Prighozin sees this as an existential threat in more ways than one. He escalates his rhetoric and his actions, but eventually sees no other course of action than to declare war on the Russian military command. My guess is it's probably sold to Wagner fighters as an act of righteous rebellion, Potemkin style. 

I don't care how much ammunition or other supplies they've stashed away, it won't be enough. There will have to be some way of dealing with air power, of refueling, replacing ammo stocks, and feeding the troops. This won't be a sustained activity. Even if it's true fighter pilots refused to fire on them (which I don't believe) eventually they'll find fighter pilots who will. 

I do not believe this was the end goal at virtually any point along the timeline. I believe Prighozin felt like eventually Putin would step in in his favor, because his organization is the only one getting anything done, and they still provide a lot of value in Africa in the short term, and around the world in whatever hotspots arise in the long term. But at the end of the day Prighozin has had the rug pulled out from under him. Better to go out with guns blazing than meekly submit to a kangaroo court and a bullet in the brain. 

 

 

[Neonmoon 38130]

Unconfirmed 

 

[The Dog 44180]

VIDEO CONFORMATION CIVIL WAR

 

[cactusflinthead 27615]

 

[Rimbo 26417]

3 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

Here's my theory:

Convicted criminal and opportunist who makes connections with Putin while Putin is on his way up. Putin likes him and sees him as useful. Makes him a billionaire, places him in his inner circle. At some point Prighozin approaches Putin with the idea of starting up a private army, and how they could do the dirty work around the world that would be productive for Russia without the Russian military having to get its hands dirty. A Russian equivalent to Blackwater, only even more active and tied to the state. 

Wagner proves to be exceptionally useful in both Africa and Syria. They get shit done. The operation is competently run. They spend a lot of money on their personnel, making sure they're equipped extremely well. There's an esprit de corps among members that they're the best of the best. They're valued for their ruthlessness. The best soldiers in the Russian army often sign up with Wagner for the higher pay and the feeling of being with the best.

In the meantime Wagner becomes a major source of revenue and power for Prighozin. Putin values him as an asset outside the normal chain of command who is loyal to him. Other members of the inner circle are way of Prigozhin but feel helpless to do anything about it with him having Putin's personal blessing. Also, they see the value in what his organization brings - just wary of the risks but no way to communicate those to Putin in a way that makes sense.

Putin decides to invade Ukraine. The swift military action planned for goes to complete shit. The airborne units are left to be massacred after taking over the Antonov airport. The regular forces can't get their shit together, are bogged down by terrain, horrible logistics, and the internal corruption that pervades the regular army. Hence the need for something like Wagner in the first place.

Wagner troops in general create better results where ever they are deployed compared to the regular army. Again, they're better equipped, better trained, better morale. They're a private version of the most elite VDV units. 

The offensive bogs down. Prighozin is out of his mind with the incompetency of the Russian army, and being forced to work alongside these fools. They're lazy, stupid, have no sense of professionalism, and everyone is out to save their own skin. He somehow convinces Putin, whether directly or through a third party, to put Wagner in charge of an offensive and let him show how to effectively carry one out. The offensive chosen was in the direction of Bakhmut. 

As part of this effort he's given permission to recruit convicts out of the penal system to be used as meat. Prighozin is very charismatic, and as a former prisoner himself, he knows how to speak to these people in a compelling way. He signs up tens of thousands to supplement his forces.

Lacking armor and sufficient artillery under their direct control, Wagner develops the strategy of sending in convicts in waves of 5 or 6 at a time, ferreting out the placement of Ukrainian defenses and weak points. After either the convicts secure a point, or the defense is softened up sufficiently, they then send in the regular Wagner shock troops. This is done over and over relentlessly, in Soledar and then in Bakhmut itself. Given that this is the only spot along the entire front where any progress is being made whatsoever, it's seen as a success. 

At some point Prighozin is cut off from access to Putin. I have no idea when it occurs, but it obviously occurs. Given Russian politics and Prighozin's lack of a power base outside of Putin and Wagner, he chooses to go all in. Backing down at this point would mean losing everything to the long knives in Putin's inner circle. I don't know that he has a long term plan per se, other than like Baelish opined, chaos is a ladder. I can't imagine he saw himself as displacing Putin directly, but I certainly feel like he saw himself as a potential replacement for Putin, depending on how things worked out. 

Bakhmut is taken over, or at least the rubble of the town is taken over. Prighozin declares victory and begins to pull his forces out. Shiogu sees Prighozin's limited utility at an end, and makes a move to eliminate Wagner as a separate source of power. I'm assuming with Putin's blessing. Who knows, though. Maybe everyone is acting in a vacuum. 

Prighozin sees this as an existential threat in more ways than one. He escalates his rhetoric and his actions, but eventually sees no other course of action than to declare war on the Russian military command. My guess is it's probably sold to Wagner fighters as an act of righteous rebellion, Potemkin style. 

I don't care how much ammunition or other supplies they've stashed away, it won't be enough. There will have to be some way of dealing with air power, of refueling, replacing ammo stocks, and feeding the troops. This won't be a sustained activity. Even if it's true fighter pilots refused to fire on them (which I don't believe) eventually they'll find fighter pilots who will. 

I do not believe this was the end goal at virtually any point along the timeline. I believe Prighozin felt like eventually Putin would step in in his favor, because his organization is the only one getting anything done, and they still provide a lot of value in Africa in the short term, and around the world in whatever hotspots arise in the long term. But at the end of the day Prighozin has had the rug pulled out from under him. Better to go out with guns blazing than meekly submit to a kangaroo court and a bullet in the brain. 

 

 

tl;dr

[SimonBolivar 10961]

Sounds seem videogameish in that video.

Edited June 24, 2023 by SimonBolivar

[Superhero 8888]

5 hours ago, The Dog said:

Holy shit if true:

"The leftovers of Wagners on the outskirts of Bakhmut opened fire on the regular roads of the Russian Federation. Our assault brigades see everything, systematic strikes are now being carried out on the positions of the Russians. You would hear the radio broadcast of these *** now. The impression is that part of the Russian regular troops are killing their own, and it seems that part of the military is supporting Prigozhin. While it is not clear what is finally happening, it is a bloodbath"