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Русский корабль - иди нахуй


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3 hours ago, Helobious said:

That’s because I don’t think anyone knew the scope of what’s happening or what even is going on. Seems like a pretty confusing situation over there. I imagine this gets worked out soon and Wagner stands down. Because if it gets any bigger they’ll be snuffed out.

Huh, looks like this is EXACTLY what is happening. But go ahead and treat this like my UCONN national title prediction. Just ignore it and continue with the “helo is always wrong/stupid/a troll” trope that’s been proven false time and time again

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5 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

I’ll try to check in but I am starting Saturday morning kid activities. They wait for no coup. 

well bull shit it! It is the Surly! You are the resident expert on eastern affairs and beers! 

And, yeah, they do. My mom did not take me to my soccer game cuz she had to deal with some BS in a certain nation south of Texas. 

Sweating Heat Wave GIF

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3 hours ago, Helobious said:

Is there an O/U on how long this “coup” lasts? I don’t give them 4 hours before the Wagner folks are slaughtered. I bet it’s just a small number participating anyway. No way are they all on board

 

3 hours ago, Helobious said:

That’s because I don’t think anyone knew the scope of what’s happening or what even is going on. Seems like a pretty confusing situation over there. I imagine this gets worked out soon and Wagner stands down. Because if it gets any bigger they’ll be snuffed out.

I was thinking to myself "he who controls tiktok, controls the most powerful force in the universe" and that's when it hit me.... China, motherfucking China controls tiktok. Tip of the cap, Xi. Brilliant long game.  

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9 minutes ago, Helobious said:

Huh, looks like this is EXACTLY what is happening. But go ahead and treat this like my UCONN national title prediction. Just ignore it and continue with the “helo is always wrong/stupid/a troll” trope that’s been proven false time and time again

Nope, some surrender, get killed, Russian style, others take their weapons and keep at it. That is an insurgency. 

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2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

It's weird as shit.  My guess is that everything has already been done and they are just going through the motions/clearing the building/looking for valuable prisoners (generals).

Or, they've taken the buildings, and the soldiers we are seeing in the streets are some kind of home guard shit (their uniforms are weird, they have different arm bands, etc.) and they were ordered to fight Wagner or go to Ukraine or something.

Or the soldiers in the streets are Russian soldiers who defected to Wagner, and were outfitted the way they were to disguise that they were regular Russian troops.

I'm not going to lie, it's fucking weird, but I also don't think this is a sham - Putin would not risk destabilizing the country just to rid himself of Shoigu/Gerasimov - he'd simply either reassign them, or just remove their responsibilities/privileges and let them keep the title, but move the power to underlings.  He's done it multiple times over the past few years.

I've even seen people say that this is Putin's way of pulling out of Ukraine - it's a false flag arranged with Prigozhin that would cause Russian troops to be brought out of Ukraine, but again, Putin risks destabilizing the whole fucking country when he controls the media and could just say "we're pulling out, we denazified Ukraine and that's that" and nobody in the media would contradict him.

 

 

It is sorta like like Jeff Goldblum standing straight up during a gun fight in Life Aquatic and just checking out the scene.

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There’s been an announcement of a “counter-terrorist regime” in Moscow and Moscow region. This mostly means that security forces are off the chain to do what they want and then beyond that it’s situational when it comes to putting resources in the field. 
 

Putin is either genuinely worried, or he wants to act like he is. 

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1 minute ago, 956 Worldwide said:

There’s been an announcement of a “counter-terrorist regime” in Moscow and Moscow region. This mostly means that security forces are off the chain to do what they want and then beyond that it’s situational when it comes to putting resources in the field. 
 

Putin is either genuinely worried, or he wants to act like he is. 

1937.... Here we go. Time to build some railroads. 

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5 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

There’s been an announcement of a “counter-terrorist regime” in Moscow and Moscow region. This mostly means that security forces are off the chain to do what they want and then beyond that it’s situational when it comes to putting resources in the field. 
 

Putin is either genuinely worried, or he wants to act like he is. 

He certainly should be.  

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Just now, Hook1997 said:

You’re telling me Russia doesn’t have enough planes and helicopters left inside of Russia to start mowing down this advance?  Very strange all of it but I highly doubt Putin’s plan is to fake a militant coup.  

They do have it, but there’s no way to hide tactical aircraft hitting columns on the Moscow-Voronezh highway in a world with cell phone cameras. That image is a message that the state has let things get out of hand. Open fighting is easy to start and hard to turn off.  The preferred resolution is arrests. 

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1 minute ago, Hook1997 said:

You’re telling me Russia doesn’t have enough planes and helicopters left inside of Russia to start mowing down this advance?  Very strange all of it but I highly doubt Putin’s plan is to fake a militant coup.  

1. Do pilots want to fly that mission?  You all are assuming that the military still wants to fight for Putin.  The coup is their best hope for the war in Ukraine being over in the next three years. 

2. The limitations of air superiority have definitely been demonstrated during the last year. I am curious about artillery. 

 

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3 minutes ago, Hook1997 said:

You’re telling me Russia doesn’t have enough planes and helicopters left inside of Russia to start mowing down this advance?  Very strange all of it but I highly doubt Putin’s plan is to fake a militant coup.  

In El Salvador in 1990 there was a fight for who would be Minister of Defense. The AF commander, hard right, declared he deserved it since he was a general. The Army Colonel up for the position was inferior. Air Force put armament across strategic locations. I used to drink with some of the AF combat pilots. A few called me up and said tell your mom (US Embassy) we won't hit the army. 

General stood down and died in Miami. 

Troops evolve and talk. They are not robots. Maybe the pilots are tired of going to funerals. Maybe they are tired of worthless raids for a war they don't believe in. It happens. 

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10 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

They do have it, but there’s no way to hide tactical aircraft hitting columns on the Moscow-Voronezh highway in a world with cell phone cameras. That image is a message that the state has let things get out of hand. Open fighting is easy to start and hard to turn off.  The preferred resolution is arrests. 

So they are expecting them to turn themselves in when they reach Moscow?   Looks like open fighting is going to have to happen at some point.  Or I doubt Putin is going to be like sure I’ll arrest my defense minister and Generals because a terrorist group is saying to do so.   

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4 minutes ago, Hook1997 said:

So they are expecting them to turn themselves in when they reach Moscow?   Looks like open fighting is going to have to happen at some point.  Or I doubt Putin is going to be like sure I’ll arrest my defense minister and Generals because a terrorist group is saying to do so.   

They will fall out of windows and he will cut a deal. Pretzel dick already knows what he wants. Plus Wagner controls a lot of the sanctioned cash coming in so Russia can pay for shit in Dubai. His Ministers make tea  

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The last big internal crises in Russia (1991 and 1993) were pretty shambolic and confusing affairs where soldiers did a lot of milling about, a bit of shooting, and a lot of waiting but little real fighting. This is not a civil war or ethnic conflict or a Russia with real revolutionary zeal. Russian soldiers don’t really feel like shooting each other for these mafia bosses and Putin’s worst play is to publicly lose control of a situation. We’ve even seen in Ukraine that narrative is as important to him as reality. 

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1 minute ago, InkaUtexas said:

They will fall out of windows and he will cut a deal. Pretzel dick already knows what he wants. Plus Wagner controls a lot of the sanctioned cash coming in so Russia can pay for shit in Dubai. His Ministers make tea  

Putin now talking and not like he’s going to make a deal…

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