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Posted
4 minutes ago, G650 said:

I concur with this take

The entire time this drama was happening I kept thinking to myself that eventually Putin would contact Prigozhin and inform him that several tactical nukes we’re going to hit his columns if he proceeded. That is one thing Putin could do to stop the coup, and also Russia bombing Russia was not something that would likely get NATO involved.  After all, it would be Russian military destroying some of the best equipped Russian military, and NATO would probably be fine with that.   And before everyone jumps on me and says how stupid that is, first ask yourself if Putin would put any limits on what he would do to stay in power.  Because he’s dead if he’s not  in power.

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Posted
2 minutes ago, GabrielsHorn said:

So does the CIA get a refund on their deposit? 

Putin is weakened in front of the Russian people.  Wagner as a unit is finished in Ukraine, which is huge.  Putin has to have the FSB figure out who is loyal in the military and who isn't. He also has to figure out why Rostov on Don was so willing to embrace Wagner.

They got their money's worth.

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Posted

One other thought I had about Prigozhin turning around.

I wonder if he understands he’s already delivered the fatal blow and now he just waits for Putin to bleed out.

If he can survive in Belarus for long enough, I’d think he has as much chance of taking over Russia as the next thug once Putin is gone.

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Posted
1 minute ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

One other thought I had about Prigozhin turning around.

I wonder if he understands he’s already delivered the fatal blow and now he just waits for Putin to bleed out.

If he can survive in Belarus for long enough, I’d think he has as much chance of taking over Russia as the next thug once Putin is gone.

While I agree that Putin is damaged, my only problem with that is that he appears to be giving up Wagner.  He probably won't find another army as loyal and competent as that. That was the best Russian offensive of this entire war.

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Posted (edited)

One of them is dead soon. If one is in exile and remains alive it’s probably Putin. Prigozhin is a dead man walking if he’s relying on a deal and a weakened Putin remains with any power. That to me means Prigozhin fucked up and over played his hand or he was backed into a corner. guy in CNN from some obscure European news source said there is no deal, Putin will kill him and  Prigozhin was backed into a corner when Putin said sign the contract. Either he’s a traitor when he says no or he loses his power when he hands W over so blaze of glory baby. And took what he could get and it ain’t much. 
 

Edited by troph
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Posted
7 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

One other thought I had about Prigozhin turning around.

I wonder if he understands he’s already delivered the fatal blow and now he just waits for Putin to bleed out.

If he can survive in Belarus for long enough, I’d think he has as much chance of taking over Russia as the next thug once Putin is gone.

Dude ain't gonna live 90 days.

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Posted

Everyone is thinking that Pringles is acting in good faith and as advertised taking the deal.  What if he isn't?  He could have tricked the authorities to drop their guard into Moscow.  

Unlikely from everything I am reading, but I'm surprised no one is saying something like this.  Both parties are bad actors with a problematic history with the truth, I'm not sure this is over.  

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Posted
32 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

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The new Cannonball Run reboot seems lit as fuck.  Not as lit as I'd prefer, but I'm watching it.  

Record-Time race to Redondo Beach?  Santa Monica?  

Oh, no...we're going to Moscow!

Wait, what?  why?  

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Posted

I've been saying this for months but I hope to live long enough to get a chance to hear all the posthumous stories of the infighting with Putin and his subordinates. The Priggy vs the army leadership has been squabbling for a good year. The inability of Putin to recognize any of that and to take decisive actions is telling. The deal made today is just another obscuration that does not provide any immediate clarity. Before drawing any strong conclusions I would wait to see on a couple of points:

1) What happens to the MoD or the CoS? If either Shoigu or Gerasimov are demoted then that at least shows the main thrust of Prigozhin's complaints were answered. Which still leaves the unanswered question why Putin took so long to finally purge ineptitude from his staff.

2) What happens to the overseas Wagner bases? Are they still operating as Wagner underneath Prighozin? Do they get rebranded and operate under new management but still separate from Russia's regular military?

 

I think those are two areas that may give us some insight into what really transpired from today's deal. That or possibly a high velocity ejection from a Belarusian window for Priggy.

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Posted
3 hours ago, Helobious said:

Recap for non-plugged in person… rebellion is over correct? My 4-hour prediction was only off by a handful of hours. 

Nope. Saw a TikTok comment saying it continues. 

See Helo, once something like this happens it continues. Just cuz leadership goes one way, does not mean the rank and file will follow. Read some history man. 

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Posted
18 minutes ago, dimyh said:

I've been saying this for months but I hope to live long enough to get a chance to hear all the posthumous stories of the infighting with Putin and his subordinates. The Priggy vs the army leadership has been squabbling for a good year. The inability of Putin to recognize any of that and to take decisive actions is telling. The deal made today is just another obscuration that does not provide any immediate clarity. Before drawing any strong conclusions I would wait to see on a couple of points:

1) What happens to the MoD or the CoS? If either Shoigu or Gerasimov are demoted then that at least shows the main thrust of Prigozhin's complaints were answered. Which still leaves the unanswered question why Putin took so long to finally purge ineptitude from his staff.

2) What happens to the overseas Wagner bases? Are they still operating as Wagner underneath Prighozin? Do they get rebranded and operate under new management but still separate from Russia's regular military?

 

I think those are two areas that may give us some insight into what really transpired from today's deal. That or possibly a high velocity ejection from a Belarusian window for Priggy.

Overseas assets are on contract with the host nation. So they continue. Notice that the countries they operate in are very tight with Russia. I say unleash A-10's if they are close to US forces. That includes most of the Sahel. 

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Posted
9 minutes ago, Rimbo said:

Yeah, slightly disappointing we lost out on immediate orc-on-orc violence, but the coalition between the two towers has shown signs of cracking.

 

At this point Ukraine should be one of the last things on Putin's mind. He should definitely pull back and consolidate power positions the best he can to stave off an actual coup from somewhere. The military may not have agreed to back Prigozhin but they didn't exactly try to stop him either. As far as Putin knows all it takes is the right guy the military leaders are willing to back and it could be anyone in his orbit. 

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Posted (edited)

Damn the coup was over before my plane even landed. It looked like we were even in the area flying over Nizhny Novgorod

Edited by Viper
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Posted

Any chance this actually strengthens the Russian army by absorbing those troops and their equipment?  Hopefully they’re not smart enough to integer them tactically and just throw them to the front to get ground down. 

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Hermanator said:

At this point Ukraine should be one of the last things on Putin's mind. He should definitely pull back and consolidate power positions the best he can to stave off an actual coup from somewhere. The military may not have agreed to back Prigozhin but they didn't exactly try to stop him either. As far as Putin knows all it takes is the right guy the military leaders are willing to back and it could be anyone in his orbit. 

He has repeatedly said that the battle for Ukraine is an existential battle for Russia’s future. I don’t think he can abandon that battle.

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Posted

Yeah be he also went on TV and said Pringle boy was a traitor and would be dealt with only to offer him a get out of jail free card and witness relocation. 
 

none of this shit makes any sense. 

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Posted
26 minutes ago, Mantis Toboggan, MD said:

Putin can say anything to the Russian people true, false, insane, or contradictory. They will just shrug their shoulders and go about their meaningless lives like the mindless lemmings they are. It truly doesn’t matter at all what he says.

28663505.gif

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Hermanator said:

At this point Ukraine should be one of the last things on Putin's mind. He should definitely pull back and consolidate power positions the best he can to stave off an actual coup from somewhere. The military may not have agreed to back Prigozhin but they didn't exactly try to stop him either. As far as Putin knows all it takes is the right guy the military leaders are willing to back and it could be anyone in his orbit. 

Yeah, plus the military is looking at the fact that Wagner shot down/killed several air force personnel and nothing happened.  Oh, and the biggest chunk of the military is still stuck in Ukraine, while the Wagner folks that backed Prigozhin seem to be out of the fight and/or headed to Africa and elsewhere.

But they didn't try to stop Wagner, and that's the biggest thing.  Putin is ex-KGB, this should scare the absolute shit out of him.  At the very least, some officer should have pulled a company or a couple of companies of soldiers, loaded them in trucks, and hauled ass to cut off Wagner - it wasn't like they were hiding where they were at or where they were going.  But nobody seemed to have done that - just a few half-assed attempts at aerial interdiction that wiped out over half-a-dozen aircraft - more than the Ukrainians have taken down in the last week.

Prigozhin has to have gotten something he wanted, and given how successful he was, and how he appears to have been backed by some powerful people, I'm guessing he's got assurances he won't jump out of a window or come down with permanent indigestion.

Edit: Actually the thing that should scare Putin the most is that the police/FSB/etc. that weren't in the military, stood aside while Wagner did their thing.  This does not bode well in case of a civilian uprising.

Edited by atomheartbevo
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Posted
7 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Edit: Actually the thing that should scare Putin the most is that the police/FSB/etc. that weren't in the military, stood aside while Wagner did their thing.  This does not bode well in case of a civilian uprising.

images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSYuGM3Hq4tHYDzyv7JFQQ

 

considering those guys were possibly about to up against dudes in APCs, with 30MM cannons, and heavily modified automatic weapons, I totally understand the reason to "stand aside"  and see what fucking develops. 

civillians uprising wouldnt be anywhere near as worrisome.  even if they have AK's they dont have a fucking armored carrier that can pop open most police cars and vans like a zit.   

very easy to shoot peeps without armor. 

Posted
4 minutes ago, AUS-97HORN said:

considering those guys were possibly about to up against dudes in APCs, with 30MM cannons, and heavily modified automatic weapons, I totally understand the reason to "stand aside"  and see what fucking develops. 

civillians uprising wouldnt be anywhere near as worrisome.  even if they have AK's they dont have a fucking armored carrier that can pop open most police cars and vans like a zit.   

very easy to shoot peeps without armor. 

A lot of those units were also gutted for the Special Military Operation.  The folks in Rostov on Don didn't seem to scared of them when they returned.

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