Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[cactusflinthead 27,601]

 

[Longhornstampede 3,186]

https://twitter.com/CooperEarlJones/status/1672749209789898752?t=44b2ZNrohwxgHq69xByl0g&s=19

[Sawbonz 27,584]

2 hours ago, The Dog said:

 

He better stay away from windows and teacups 

[Sawbonz 27,584]

I just don’t see how Putin maintains power. He cut and ran when Pigpen got within 500 km of Moscow. He’s a eunuch 

[KYHorn 17,134]

 

Could be some of the motivation behind the pause in the offensive, which seems to have resumed a bit

Edited June 25, 2023 by KYHorn

[686 3,450]

[NOMAAA 1,696]

Fascinating read today. Thanks to all contributors. Anyone else think a transfer of power might end up as one of those devil you know deals? Putins a bad dude. Next man up surely could be worse. 

[statsman 5,475]

32 minutes ago, NOMAAA said:

Fascinating read today. Thanks to all contributors. Anyone else think a transfer of power might end up as one of those devil you know deals? Putins a bad dude. Next man up surely could be worse. 

He ain’t gonna be around forever, anyway. No reason to fear something happening that’s bound to happen. 

[Pig Bellmont 8,724]

26 minutes ago, NOMAAA said:

Fascinating read today. Thanks to all contributors. Anyone else think a transfer of power might end up as one of those devil you know deals? Putins a bad dude. Next man up surely could be worse. 

Fuck Putin - I bet he’s dead before a year is out. 

[AUS-97HORN 11,814]

2 minutes ago, Pig Bellmont said:

Fuck Putin - I bet he’s dead before a year is out. 

I dont know.

hes a cunt, a fucking lunatic, a meglomaniac, and a cruel, ruthless human being.

 

but hes also a fucking survivor. 

You dont get to be accused of disloyalty by the Soviet KGB, and have his only punishment be resigning his active duty status with the KGB and otherwise get to return to Leningrad and walk away scott free, WITHOUT haveing some serious survivor instincts.

[Rimbo 26,053]

 

[BamaATL 16,593]

2 minutes ago, AUS-97HORN said:

I dont know.

hes a cunt, a fucking lunatic, a meglomaniac, and a cruel, ruthless human being.

 

but hes also a fucking survivor. 

You dont get to be accused of disloyalty by the Soviet KGB, and have his only punishment be resigning his active duty status with the KGB and otherwise get to return to Leningrad and walk away scott free, WITHOUT haveing some serious survivor instincts.

Gaddafi was a survivor as well, until he got stabbed in the ass and bled out in sewer.  There's still hope there.

But trading Putin for Pringles wouldn't be great either.  The best we could have hoped for with that is pistols at dawn and both of them to get their heads blown off.  Ultimately, though, Russia isn't going to change without a complete defeat and humiliation on the battlefield; and even if that does happen there is a lot of reason to think that humiliation and defeat like this wouldn't be enough to spark any real change.  They are collectively a poisoned society, and until they internally decide via regular citizens rising up and forcing (and in turn earning) change, not much will happen, we will see them just trading despots.  Given their current status, I'd bet on another despot well before I'd bet on anything else.  

The good news though, at least they shot down some of their own air force today.  

[Rimbo 26,053]

 

[InkaUtexas 26,072]

1 hour ago, AUS-97HORN said:

I dont know.

hes a cunt, a fucking lunatic, a meglomaniac, and a cruel, ruthless human being.

 

but hes also a fucking survivor. 

You dont get to be accused of disloyalty by the Soviet KGB, and have his only punishment be resigning his active duty status with the KGB and otherwise get to return to Leningrad and walk away scott free, WITHOUT haveing some serious survivor instincts.

he knew shit. And was the access to knowing more shit. 

[NorthLoop 14,225]

I wonder... being that every scenario ends up with a psychopath in charge of Russia... does the US have a plan in place to just swoop in at a certain time in between regimes to neutralize their nukes? Because they are fucking nothing without those and it changes the whole world dynamic. 

[Gatorubet 30,290]

 

[Schulz2.0 29,007]

 

[SimonBolivar 10,958]

39 minutes ago, NorthLoop said:

I wonder... being that every scenario ends up with a psychopath in charge of Russia... does the US have a plan in place to just swoop in at a certain time in between regimes to neutralize their nukes? Because they are fucking nothing without those and it changes the whole world dynamic. 

They have way too many nukes in too many different locations. There'd be no way of getting them all for sure.

[Schulz2.0 29,007]

 

[SL Xpress 7,518]

3 hours ago, NOMAAA said:

Fascinating read today. Thanks to all contributors. Anyone else think a transfer of power might end up as one of those devil you know deals? Putins a bad dude. Next man up surely could be worse. 

After this debacle of an invasion my biggest fear is that Russia actually finds someone competent. 

[Schulz2.0 29,007]

[Schulz2.0 29,007]

 

[Schulz2.0 29,007]

 

 

 

[Schulz2.0 29,007]

 

[Schulz2.0 29,007]

 

[956 Worldwide 34,747]

8 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

Overseas assets are on contract with the host nation. So they continue. Notice that the countries they operate in are very tight with Russia. I say unleash A-10's if they are close to US forces. That includes most of the Sahel. 

Wagner has been allowed to operate in Africa as an arm of Russian foreign policy. They provide a convenient cutout and a way around deploying Russian active duty abroad. The Russian MOD allows recruiting and access to Russian military equipment and resources. Money flows up.

But how does Prigozhin and Wagner continue to operate like this after what just happened? Sustaining operations in Africa without support of the Russian MOD is very different than making a thunder run on Moscow to drive a point home. 
 

He may have been promised a lot of things. But I don’t see how this organization continues to exist at all and it will be fascinating to see how they adapt for activities in Africa.  

[Schulz2.0 29,007]

 

[SL Xpress 7,518]

 

[SL Xpress 7,518]

I already posted about the additional 45 Gepards Germany will supply by the end of the year, but this is big for more robust air defenses as well.

 

[956 Worldwide 34,747]

Some more scatter-shot thoughts. I again reiterate a lot of caution as we try to figure out what this means for the future and what actually happened. That said, a couple of ideas that require taking some things at face value:

- Lack of decisive response from RuAF and especially VVS reveal Putin retains firm grasp on RuAF command and that Shoigu/Gerasimov willing to let Putin bargain over their fate as a column of mercenaries roll toward Moscow. Either no order came or the commanders in the field ignored it. 
 

- Lots of clowning on Chechens, but they never intended to fight. Notable that Kadyrov “announced” that he was coming and not that he was directed to. This is signaling to potential rivals, and to Russians. Kadyrov can deploy Chechens into Russia, they listen to him. This time it was in support of Putin, but it doesn’t have to be. Putin is unlikely to be thrilled at one of his main power bases being an unreliable Chechen who is deeply loathed personally and as part of a hated ethnic group by mainstream society. 
 

- If this was just a gangland style turf war, Putin is still “capo di capo.” But he emerges greatly embarrassed at the open disorder. His legitimacy for ordinary Russians has long depended on providing stability and prosperity and not 1990s chaos. Yesterday’s demonstration was 1990s on chaos. Putin is comfortable managing competing rival elites, that’s his model. His greatest fear remains popular discontent. Expect reinvigorated and more open repressive measures internally. 
 

- Ukraine is more important to him now and not less. Paradoxically he may prefer his army outside of his border. A lost war, soldiers coming home, and popular resentment ARE what 1917 is made of. He will double down with less regard for lives of his own soldiers or Ukrainians. 

[G650 14,273]

16 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Lack of decisive response from RuAF and especially VVS reveal Putin retains firm grasp on RuAF command and that Shoigu/Gerasimov willing to let Putin bargain over their fate as a column of mercenaries roll toward Moscow. Either no order came or the commanders in the field ignored it. 

 

This is a critical point I think most are missing

[956 Worldwide 34,747]

Horowitz gets it right. All by design, VVP would have been horrified if 10s of thousands came out to streets for him. Direct political action is terrifying to VVP (rants about the Maidan, about color revolutions). For him the solution is not to inspire fanatical loyalty (he can lose it) but instill a sense of submission to immutable reality. The willingness of Rostov residents to acknowledge that whoever has the gun at the moment is in charge reveals success of Putin’s society building. 

Edited June 25, 2023 by 956 Worldwide

[956 Worldwide 34,747]

We also learned that Prigozhin is that guy who sends voice notes instead of just texting back. 

[956 Worldwide 34,747]

And I learned that none of my deep thoughts get me as much Surly goodwill as a Forrest Gump meme I stole from a deeply stupid Slovak instagram account. 

[Bateshorn 9,929]

28 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

And I learned that none of my deep thoughts get me as much Surly goodwill as a Forrest Gump meme I stole from a deeply stupid Slovak instagram account. 

[gmr548 16,607]

I wonder... being that every scenario ends up with a psychopath in charge of Russia... does the US have a plan in place to just swoop in at a certain time in between regimes to neutralize their nukes? Because they are fucking nothing without those and it changes the whole world dynamic. 

How would you suggest neutralizing 15k warheads or whatever it is they have?

[tx ind 7,013]

[SL Xpress 7,518]

1 hour ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Horowitz gets it right. All by design, VVP would have been horrified if 10s of thousands came out to streets for him. Direct political action is terrifying to VVP (rants about the Maidan, about color revolutions). For him the solution is not to inspire fanatical loyalty (he can lose it) but instill a sense of submission to immutable reality. The willingness of Rostov residents to acknowledge that whoever has the gun at the moment is in charge reveals success of Putin’s society building. 

Some of that is society building, but some of that is simply pushing society in the direction they already lean into. 

A reading of any kind of Russian literature, both in the past and contemporary, reveals a sense of fatalism which might as well be the chief characteristic of the Russian identity. Along with every character possessing 12 names used interchangeably.

To me that’s the biggest yoke Ukraine is in the midst of breaking away from (the fatalism, at least).

I’m with you on the double down on internal repression and becoming even more calloused regarding war casualties. Russian society equates fear with respect, ruthlessness with strength, and values stability over freedom. And Putin values staying in power over anything else. 

My problem with all the 1917 comparisons - and there are plenty of lessons to draw from - is that the revolutionaries were true believers on a crusade. That’s something both Putin and Prigozhin lack. It felt like Putin was trying to speak in those types of tones as he galvanized the public for popular support of the conflict in Ukraine, but as you’ve stated, he wants a submissive citizenry, not zealots. 

[Hefeweizen 5,328]

Well that was all a big letdown for those of us expecting kinetic action, but overall I don’t think it could have gone worse for Putin.  This was his hand picked guy completely going off the reservation and making him look weak and not in control.  The digging of trenches across highways, officials fleeing Moscow, the lack of response by the security services all point to panic and complete surprise.  
 

I agree with the assessment that this does nothing to cause a decrease in effort in Ukraine as that die was cast and he has doubled and tripled down on it.  If he loses Crimea , which he will, he’s toast anyway.  But there is chaos coming in Russia.  You can see it by the response to their mutiny.  Which by the way is a lot better way to describe this weekend adventure than a coup.

[WhatTheBuck 28,797]

7 hours ago, NorthLoop said:

I wonder... being that every scenario ends up with a psychopath in charge of Russia... does the US have a plan in place to just swoop in at a certain time in between regimes to neutralize their nukes? Because they are fucking nothing without those and it changes the whole world dynamic. 

All of them? At once?

No. 

[SydneyCarton 48,150]

8 hours ago, BamaATL said:

Gaddafi was a survivor as well, until he got stabbed in the ass and bled out in sewer.  There's still hope there.

But trading Putin for Pringles wouldn't be great either.  The best we could have hoped for with that is pistols at dawn and both of them to get their heads blown off.  Ultimately, though, Russia isn't going to change without a complete defeat and humiliation on the battlefield; and even if that does happen there is a lot of reason to think that humiliation and defeat like this wouldn't be enough to spark any real change.  They are collectively a poisoned society, and until they internally decide via regular citizens rising up and forcing (and in turn earning) change, not much will happen, we will see them just trading despots.  Given their current status, I'd bet on another despot well before I'd bet on anything else.  

The good news though, at least they shot down some of their own air force today.  

The only way Russia changes is to get them to surrender their nukes, and then kick them in their own borders for a few generations and see if they change themselves. Maybe they’ll build up a functioning society from their own isolation. 
 

so Russia is never changing. 

[Bevo 13,596]

13 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

The only way Russia changes is to get them to surrender their nukes, and then kick them in their own borders for a few generations and see if they change themselves. Maybe they’ll build up a functioning society from their own isolation. 
 

so Russia is never changing. 

What would you say if you were asked to surrender your NIL war chest?

 

It ain’t happenin’ 

[Neonmoon 38,130]

Operation Tik Tok was a success for the Chechens 

 

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12,301]

This isn’t a particularly insightful thought, but it is one that makes me happy:

Putin is freaking the fuck out right now. 

[Dbeasy 15,085]

Yesterday, nothing made sense. Then the agreement between Putin and Prozac really didn’t make sense. There still is a vital missing piece of information in this story. 

[MissingInAction 25,172]

I think Ukraine missed a great opportunity to strike during the confusion and chaos.

[South Austin 52,568]

2 minutes ago, MissingInAction said:

I think Ukraine missed a great opportunity to strike during the confusion and chaos.

Strike where?

[Eastwood 4,394]

We got excited because we thought that everything was going to unravel right in front of us in a 48 hour period. It’s understandable. We were on the verge of seeing what would be the greatest geopolitical event since the fall of the Berlin Wall and maybe we still did. It took two whole years from the Wall going down to the dissolving of the Soviet Union.

 The Wall falling was the breaking away of the most visible non-nuclear symbol of Soviet power in the European front. Russia’s most powerful and seasoned troops withdrawing from the newest Russian/European conflict border, Ukraine, turning their guns east, and holding the Kremlin hostage to meet demands was our modern day equivalent. People are openly wondering “how could Prog possibly believe this is over and he is safe” but the same could be asked of Putin’s mindset. Both sides of that conflict are irreparably damaged. Imagine how many oligarchs just saw their fortunes flash before their eyes. Imagine how much chatter about Putin’s weakness has been picked up by the FSB. 

May we live in interesting times, indeed. 

[Rimbo 26,053]

3 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Horowitz gets it right. All by design, VVP would have been horrified if 10s of thousands came out to streets for him. Direct political action is terrifying to VVP (rants about the Maidan, about color revolutions). For him the solution is not to inspire fanatical loyalty (he can lose it) but instill a sense of submission to immutable reality. The willingness of Rostov residents to acknowledge that whoever has the gun at the moment is in charge reveals success of Putin’s society building. 

 

[cactusflinthead 27,601]

16 hours ago, troph said:

Also helps explain why the US was a bit flat footed. Sounds like we saw troop movements but had no idea what was happening.

We weren't. It was known something was up i back in June