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Eastwood

By Eastwood
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AUS-97HORN
AUS-97HORN

For the love of Christ woman,  stop posting the same fucking thing every 20 mins just to make your neurotic self feel better.     Bring something useful to the thread other than your inane babbli

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InkaUtexas
InkaUtexas

I volunteered today. Log/Admin role to replace people for 30-60 days. The operation is in the west, or should the Orcs win will be pulled back behind the NATO wall. Either way the humanitarian effort

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The Dog

The Dog 43491

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1/ Widespread reports are emerging of a programme of forced military recruitment in Russian penal colonies, with prisoners being evaluated for their fitness to be drafted into 'Storm Z' assault units. Desperate convicts are said to be trying to contract HIV to avoid the draft. ⬇️Image
2/ The Russian prisoners' rights group has been reporting for several weeks on indications that a mass mobilisation of convicts is planned, or already underway. Unlike Wagner's voluntary prisoner recruitment, this appears to be intended to be forcible.Gulagu.net
3/ According to Gulagu head Vladimir Osechkin, the Federal Penitentiary Service has ordered prisons to compile lists of prisoners who are fit for military service and have previously served in the Russian armed forces, as well as those qualified for driving. 
4/ The move follows amendments in June to laws on "Conscription and military service" and "Mobilisation training" which, for the first time, identify currently serving convicts as being eligible for mobilisation. Their sentences are to be annulled on finishing their service. 
5/ Reports indicate that a widespread forcible mobilisation is imminent. "There was a rumor in the colonies in different regions that they would be taken away, but not on a voluntary basis," according to one relative. As many as 100,000 men are said to have been listed. 
6/ Relatives say that preparations are being made to forcibly mobilise prisoners from penal colonies in the Novosibirsk, Saratov, Lipetsk, Voronezh, Rostov, Tomsk, and Nizhny Novgorod regions. Some are reported to have been taken to the front already. 
7/ One relative writes in a chat: “Can they now forcibly take them from the colonies to the Special Military Operation? After all, we are not in a state of war. It’s just that IK-13 in the Novosibirsk Region received lists of [170] prisoners who they want to take forcibly." 
8/ A mobilisation on this scale is likely to raise some serious issues, however. Gulagu reports that the Federal Penitentiary Service's leadership is concerned about "wide publicity, possible riots and loss of control over the situation in the colonies ... 
9/ ... (and what do [the prisoners] have to lose if in two weeks they are thrown out to the front line under artillery and mines?)." 
10/ It reports that "the Director of the Federal Penitentiary Service was instructed to intensify operational work to force convicts to write handwritten statements about their alleged desire to go to the front." In practice, this seems to have meant using torture and beatings. 
11/ Some men have been exempted, including HIV-infected people and those with a "low social status", likely the ostracised and sexually abused convicts known as 'cocks' in Russian prison slang (see the explainer below).
12/ This potentially offers a way out for the desperate. According to one interlocutor speaking of the colonies in the Novosibirsk region, "People are looking for some options, up to obtaining an HIV status, so as not to go to the Special Military Operation zone." 
13/ However, according to , even on a more limited mobilisation schedule, more than a thousand convicts are being sent to the front daily. It notes that prison bosses appear to be reducing food procurement in anticipation of more convicts being sent.Gulagu.net
14/ Gulagu reports that in addition to Storm Z, which has become notorious for sending men into hugely costly 'meat assaults' (see thread below), the Russian MOD has established a new 'North Z' penal unit, designated as an assault and reconnaissance unit.
15/ According to Gulagu, North Z was established in April 2023 with convicts from penal colonies in the Saratov region and Bashkortostan. They were sent straight to the front line without training and were put under the command of an ex-Wagner fighter.Image
16/ Some North Z fighters were captured by the Ukrainians. Gulagu says that "more than 100 ex-prisoners from "North Z" were killed, some of them shot by their own commanders." They are said to be used as "cannon and mine meat". 
17/ Gulagu notes that, in a revival of Stalin-era practices, prisoners are shot if they try to escape and are often abandoned to die on the battlefield if they are wounded. 
18/ "But even if they are lucky and evacuated to the nearest military hospital, they will be discharged from there without any full-fledged treatment, with bullets and shrapnel inside, with fractures, and again sent to the front line." /end 

 

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89059

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4 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

And just like the soviet union went broke and dissolved while trying to keep up economically in the arms race, Russia is going to eventually go broke as well. Again, an economy roughly equivalent to Italy.

Putin had a tremendous piggy bank, saved because of all that oil revenue. Like a trust fundbaby going through expensive foreign cars and a ton of cocaine, eventually the fucking-around economically will result in a finding-out economy.

4 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

This.  So long as western resolve isn't undermined by a 5th column (a real risk -- both the US and UK have a strong Russian-aligned 5th column working within their existing power/governance structure), the west can easily outlast Russia's economy, which will survive right up until it doesn't, and collapses.

4 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

Yeah--I don't understand what is so mysterious about the resiliency of the Russian economy.  The Russian government is spending its reserves.  No shit that is keeping the economy going.

The question is: what happens when those reserves run out.  Presumably, they'll start borrowing.  Or maybe they'll just start printing rubles.  But in either event, the economic consequences are going to be significant.  I mean, for one thing, they're going to have a shockingly high cost of borrowing.  Between the danger of western sanctions and the (significant) possibility of non-repayment, I can't imagine the interest rate lenders are going to demand.

A huge problem for Putin is that as this grinds on, he has to start taking younger working men out of the economy for the meat grinder.  Russia only has so many convicts/incarcerated they can send. Russian economy is probably what it is thanks to the 700,000 - 1 million men (and/or their families) that fled last year.

But this all goes back to Putin being a gambler who is just guessing, instead of a risk taker who weighs the consequences of his actions.

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Nivek

Nivek 16691

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A huge problem for Putin is that as this grinds on, he has to start taking younger working men out of the economy for the meat grinder.  Russia only has so many convicts/incarcerated they can send. Russian economy is probably what it is thanks to the 700,000 - 1 million men (and/or their families) that fled last year.
But this all goes back to Putin being a gambler who is just guessing, instead of a risk taker who weighs the consequences of his actions.

That is what the kidnappings are about.
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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89059

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2 hours ago, Nivek said:

That is what the kidnappings are about.

Yep, they are going to empty the rest of their prisons out, as well as all of the men who can somewhat walk and breath in DPR/LPR.  All those pro-Russian mouthbreathers in DPR/LPR who cheered Russia showing up 9 years ago are going to fucking pay for that, as Putin will give no fucks about them.

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utee94

utee94 15722

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15 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Yep, they are going to empty the rest of their prisons out, as well as all of the men who can somewhat walk and breath in DPR/LPR.  All those pro-Russian mouthbreathers in DPR/LPR who cheered Russia showing up 9 years ago are going to fucking pay for that, as Putin will give no fucks about them.

Couldn't happen to a more deserving bunch. They are getting exactly what they asked for.  

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BamaATL

BamaATL 16289

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1 hour ago, Gatorubet said:

An army made up of convicts will at least stop the theft and rapes and desertions - and increase discipline within the ranks.  I also imagine they will take not being paid for long stretches pretty well.  It’s a good idea to arm them all heavily.

Imagine conscripting an army of fucking hoopleheads and then expecting good things.  This is apparently their winning plan.  

So on Russia's deficit spending of $30 billion to date this year, while not published their ordinary defense spending budget is thought to be between $60 and $80 billion a year.  Of course, this predates the invasion, and doesn't consider ordinary loss (theft, bribery, etc) or at least 20%, so in real terms somewhere between $48 and $64 billion; which is best case on the aforementioned theft.  This also doesn't take into consideration of GDP loss because of the war.  Prewar their GDP was $1.7 trillion per year. In just June they had infusion $9.5 billion into there emergency reserve fund to make it solvent.   In real terms, it would at lest appear on paper that Russia is spending roughly 10 to 12% of their entire GDP on this war, which assumes their GDP hasn't taken a hit due to oil and gas sanctions (it has).  I would guess their actual cost vs GDP is somewhere around 20% in real terms.  

To put that in perspective, the highest the US ever spent in defense spending vs GDP was about 40%, in 1944, you know, when we were busy fighting in 2 world wars (and winning them) at the same time.  So for 20% of their entire GDP, they managed to take (for now) Bakhmut, reinforce two bullshit republic oblasts, and currently take parts of 2 other oblasts.  That would akin to us spending 20% of our GDP on invading 3 states of Mexico, tepidly holding them, and becoming an international pariah.  Quite the return on investment.  Putin is a genius, 4D chess bitches.  

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BamaATL

BamaATL 16289

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One other thing to add to all that, the US GDP is from 2021, was 23.32 trillion.  Thus far between military, economic, and other aid sent to Ukraine it's a total of $75 billion as of the end of February, with a total $113 billion earmarked by the end of the year.  So over 2 years, we've given an average of $57 billion a year, against $24 trillion in GDP.  Basically, it's cost us .002% of our GDP to do the following:

1.  Support people whose cause is just and right

2.  Decimate, absolutely decimate, the Russian Army

3.  Secure the long term stability of our biggest trade partners outside of North America in the form of Europe as a whole.

Bottom line, when you hear people making ridiculous arguments against supporting the Ukrainians and bitching about the money, keep all this in mind.  For US interests, this has been an extraordinary financial bargain, all things considered.  Of course, the terrible downside is that all this is being done while bathed in Ukrainian blood (for fucks sake give them the weapons to win with).  When it comes time for reconstruction, this will also be hugely expensive, but that doesn't mean that in the long term the US won't reap economic benefits for doing so.   

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KYHorn

KYHorn 16728

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https://twitter.com/albafella1/status/1689192802381373440?t=zI6C6QhUGbEHxnjrl-R7xA&s=19 

🔥 POWERFUL EXPLOSION IN MOSCOW REGION.

 

🤩 Footage of the explosion in Sergiyev Posad, Moscow region from different angles is published by frightened Ruzzians. 

 

An explosion at an optical-mechanical plant occurred in a warehouse with pyrotechnics. At least 10 people were injured. Now a total evacuation has been declared there, as the Ruzzian media write.

Glass shattered in neighboring houses.

 

The Zagorsk Optical and Mechanical Plant manufactures military products, in particular night sights for tanks. The distance from Sergiev Posad to Moscow is 70 km.

Telegram channels report on the victims - at the moment there are at least 25 of them, and people may also be under the rubble.

In the first video, a shell that flew into the courtyard of local residents.

"Is this a military enlistment office?" — the reaction of local residents to the explosion in the Moscow region.

💥 And the explosion itself.

Click through for the big boom: https://twitter.com/albafella1/status/1689194606183809024?t=RYQJEWXAXIygsZhsSM1oQw&s=19

 

 

Edited by KYHorn
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KYHorn

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A bit earlier today there were reports about the strike on Elektromash plant territory in Nova Kakhovka, Kherson region. Ukrainian sources reported that Russian command centre was targeted there.  

P.S: Elektromash plant is known to be one of the favourite places for Russians in Nova Kakhovka. Dozens and dozens of strikes on this area were reported during Russian occupation. 

t.me/AFUStratCom/19…

 

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Schulz2.0

Schulz2.0 28652

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21 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

https://twitter.com/albafella1/status/1689192802381373440?t=zI6C6QhUGbEHxnjrl-R7xA&s=19 

🔥 POWERFUL EXPLOSION IN MOSCOW REGION.

 

🤩 Footage of the explosion in Sergiyev Posad, Moscow region from different angles is published by frightened Ruzzians. 

 

An explosion at an optical-mechanical plant occurred in a warehouse with pyrotechnics. At least 10 people were injured. Now a total evacuation has been declared there, as the Ruzzian media write.

Glass shattered in neighboring houses.

 

The Zagorsk Optical and Mechanical Plant manufactures military products, in particular night sights for tanks. The distance from Sergiev Posad to Moscow is 70 km.

Telegram channels report on the victims - at the moment there are at least 25 of them, and people may also be under the rubble.

In the first video, a shell that flew into the courtyard of local residents.

"Is this a military enlistment office?" — the reaction of local residents to the explosion in the Moscow region.

💥 And the explosion itself.

Click through for the big boom: https://twitter.com/albafella1/status/1689194606183809024?t=RYQJEWXAXIygsZhsSM1oQw&s=19

 

 

Supposedly the Moscow plant makes military optics (thermal imagers, laser rangefinders, etc).

 

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NotActuallyALonghorn

NotActuallyALonghorn 4962

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50 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

https://twitter.com/albafella1/status/1689192802381373440?t=zI6C6QhUGbEHxnjrl-R7xA&s=19 

🔥 POWERFUL EXPLOSION IN MOSCOW REGION.

 

🤩 Footage of the explosion in Sergiyev Posad, Moscow region from different angles is published by frightened Ruzzians. 

 

An explosion at an optical-mechanical plant occurred in a warehouse with pyrotechnics. At least 10 people were injured. Now a total evacuation has been declared there, as the Ruzzian media write.

Glass shattered in neighboring houses.

 

The Zagorsk Optical and Mechanical Plant manufactures military products, in particular night sights for tanks. The distance from Sergiev Posad to Moscow is 70 km.

Telegram channels report on the victims - at the moment there are at least 25 of them, and people may also be under the rubble.

In the first video, a shell that flew into the courtyard of local residents.

"Is this a military enlistment office?" — the reaction of local residents to the explosion in the Moscow region.

💥 And the explosion itself.

Click through for the big boom: https://twitter.com/albafella1/status/1689194606183809024?t=RYQJEWXAXIygsZhsSM1oQw&s=19

 

 

Lol, was this from the drones they were bragging about sending towards Moscow?

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