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[Schulz2.0 28,951]

 

[Schulz2.0 28,951]

[KYHorn 17,066]

 

 

[Schulz2.0 28,951]

15 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

 

 

The beatings will continue until morale improves.

[InkaUtexas 25,945]

Someone is getting fragged tonight. 

[Schulz2.0 28,951]

 

 

[LCHorn 2,620]

5 hours ago, Armybrat said:

I seriously doubt the US would ever undertake an amphibious landing on enemy shores anywhere in the Pacific or even the ME these days.
China is the one who is high on that apparently.

I'm not sure what your reasoning on this is (and obviously this isn't about Ukraine), but the USMC Force Design 2030 that's resulted in so much criticism of the current Commandant is almost entirely about pivoting away from using The Corps as an Army supplement and back towards it's traditional role as the tip of the spear, including more robust training on amphibious operations and redeploying the budget towards supporting that.  It's very much in line with adapting to a potential war in the Pacific and I'm quite sure the drone warfare going on in Ukraine is resulting in lots of tactical rethinking. 

[MissingInAction 25,078]

24 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

The beatings will continue until morale improves.

I've got the mug

 

[MagicSoccerSpray 1,732]

Hold on to your butts!

[MillerEP 30,455]

 

[MissingInAction 25,078]

WW3 here we come/are.

[InkaUtexas 25,945]

70 km. from the lines. What Air Defense doing? 

 

[Gatorubet 30,239]

Wasn’t Russia blathering on about a common Christian Faith with the Armenians at one point as a reason for  solidarity?

Edited September 19, 2023 by Gatorubet

[MillerEP 30,455]

1 hour ago, InkaUtexas said:

70 km. from the lines. What Air Defense doing? 

 

Great question. I don't know why Ukraine would park them so close to the front. There has to be more to the story here. This is big PR win for the anti-F-16 crowd.

Edited September 19, 2023 by MillerEP

[atomheartbevo 89,672]

Ukraine continuing to go after Wagner in Sudan, similar to Israel going after its sworn enemies?  CNN can't confirm it (and admit that the drones are commercial available DJIs), and I would think Ukrainians would kind of stick out in Sudan, even though the strikes are clearly helping the Sudanese military, and so they'd be getting support from the Sudanese. 

I don't think Ukraine is at a point where they would be helping other countries go after Wagner/Russians, but then again it may have long-term financial implications since Africa is one of the ways that Russia gets around sanctions.

Could it be Russians pretending to be Ukrainians, trying to take out Wagner resources?  That would be odd since it would be destroying their own resources if they had taken over Wagner as claimed, unless they have no control over Wagner in Sudan

@InkaUtexas

https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/19/africa/ukraine-military-sudan-wagner-cmd-intl/index.html

Quote

The operation involved a series of attacks on the paramilitary group Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which is believed to be receiving assistance from Wagner, the Russian mercenary group, in its fight against the Sudanese army for control of the country.

CNN was unable to independently confirm Ukraine’s involvement in the series of strikes. But video footage obtained by CNN revealed the hallmarks of Ukrainian-style drone attacks.

Two commercially available drones widely used by Ukrainians were involved in at least eight of the strikes, with Ukrainian text seen on the drone controller. Experts also said the tactics used – namely the pattern of drones swooping directly into their target – were highly unusual in Sudan and the wider African region.

Covert strikes by Ukraine in Sudan would mark a dramatic and provocative expansion of Kyiv’s theater of war against Moscow. Aside from a string of Ukrainian drone attacks that hit deep inside Russian territory, Ukraine’s ongoing counter-offensive has been focused on the country’s occupied east and south.

Ukraine has not officially claimed responsibility for the attacks, which were captured in the drone footage. Portions of those videos have been circulating on social media since Thursday. Footage of the ground operation has not previously been published.

A high-level Sudanese military source said he had “no knowledge of a Ukrainian operation in Sudan” and did not believe it was true.

Multiple US officials appeared unaware of the alleged incident and expressed surprise at the suggestion that the strikes and ground operation may have been conducted by Ukrainian forces.

The videos, which alternate between the pilot’s view, the viewpoint of a drone observing from overhead and the controller itself, show a succession of drone strikes in and around Omdurman, a city across the Nile River from the capital Khartoum which has become a focal point of fighting between the two rival factions.

Quote

The strikes came just two days after Wagner facilitated a large arms convoy to Sudan via an RSF garrison in al-Zurug, in the country’s southwest near the border with Chad, according to another high-level Sudanese source. The official told CNN that a large number of vehicles, including several trucks carrying weapons from Wagner arrived at Zurug on September 6. CNN has obtained satellite images that showed over 100 vehicles, including scores of trucks, at the garrison on the same day high-level Sudanese sources reported the arms convoy.

Quote

Two Chadian military whistleblowers told CNN that the convoy traveled through Chad to Zurug, which would signal an expansion of Russia and Wagner’s sphere of influence in Africa, which is widely known to comprise Mali, Sudan, the Central African Republic and Libya.

The powerful Russian mercenary group has played a public and pivotal role in Moscow’s foreign military campaigns, namely in Ukraine, and has repeatedly been accused of committing atrocities. In Africa, it has helped to prop up Moscow’s growing influence and seizing of resources.

Quote

Six drone strikes targeted pickup trucks driving on Shambat bridge. Eight other attacks hit parked vehicles, buildings and armed men in Omdurman and the western suburb of Ombada, where the Sudanese military has conducted a series of air raids in recent weeks targeting RSF positions that have reportedly claimed scores of civilian lives.

One of the videos showed at least three foreign fighters appearing to conduct a raid on a building. In a clip apparently recorded on a body camera, troops were wearing night goggles, and one of the soldiers appeared to be carrying a rocket launcher. An aerial shot showing the troops advancing on the building was geolocated by CNN to a neighborhood in Omdurman near where the drone strikes took place.

Quote

CNN has exposed arms supply routes that helped sustain this conflict, running through key Wagner transit points: Russia’s air and naval base in the Syrian coastal region of Latakia, Wagner bases in Libya, and Bangui airport in the Central African Republic.

Wagner has a significant presence in the CAR as well as large parts of eastern Libya, which borders Sudan, and where the renegade General Khalifa Haftar controls vast swathes of territory.

Quote

“Around 90% of the RSF’s weapons have come from Wagner,” the high-level Sudanese source told CNN, adding that Wagner’s supply of arms to the RSF has continued unabated despite the death of the mercenary group’s leader Yevgeny Prigozhin and his deputy Dmitry Utkin in a plane crash on August 23.

Prigozhin’s demise has raised questions about the future of Wagner’s operations in Africa, where the mercenary group has used brutal tactics to prop up militant groups and authoritarian regimes in exchange for mineral riches. Those resources — including huge concessions in Sudan’s gold mining industry — are believed to have aided Moscow’s war effort in Ukraine, and helped it circumvent wide-ranging Western sanctions.

 

Edited September 19, 2023 by atomheartbevo

[Gatorubet 30,239]

7 hours ago, KYHorn said:

 

I think these are 1970s design as well. I think the armor is mostly designed to protect from small arms fire and shrapnel, with the artillery being a classic shoot and scoot.  The cost of two drones versus the cost of replacing this thing in rubles. Mind bottling.

[SydneyCarton 48,106]

25 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

Great question. I don't know why Ukraine would park them so close to the front. There has to be more to the story here. This is big PR win for the anti-F-16 crowd.

One tweet upthread suggested that was not real footage, it was shitty video game footage russia is passing off as real. 

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12,301]

I wish people from Chad were called Chads instead of Chadians.

[atomheartbevo 89,672]

[atomheartbevo 89,672]

Just now, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

I wish people from Chad were called Chads instead of Chadians.

[InkaUtexas 25,945]

30 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Ukraine continuing to go after Wagner in Sudan, similar to Israel going after its sworn enemies?  CNN can't confirm it (and admit that the drones are commercial available DJIs), and I would think Ukrainians would kind of stick out in Sudan, even though the strikes are clearly helping the Sudanese military, and so they'd be getting support from the Sudanese. 

I don't think Ukraine is at a point where they would be helping other countries go after Wagner/Russians, but then again it may have long-term financial implications since Africa is one of the ways that Russia gets around sanctions.

Could it be Russians pretending to be Ukrainians, trying to take out Wagner resources?  That would be odd since it would be destroying their own resources if they had taken over Wagner as claimed, unless they have no control over Wagner in Sudan

@InkaUtexas

https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/19/africa/ukraine-military-sudan-wagner-cmd-intl/index.html

 

First I hear of this, and am not sure who Ukraine would have support of. Yes, Wagner is backing the RSF and not the Government. Would be interesting if Ukraine went to them and said hey, Ahmed, we have an idea. Can we have a safe house with a generator, internet access, and let a plane land? And that is an interesting route. Why not go into Libya, where Wagner already operates, then through Chad? 

I kicked it out to people who track military in Africa more than I do, will post what they say if they respond. 

[Schulz2.0 28,951]

45 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

[atomheartbevo 89,672]

20 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

First I hear of this, and am not sure who Ukraine would have support of. Yes, Wagner is backing the RSF and not the Government. Would be interesting if Ukraine went to them and said hey, Ahmed, we have an idea. Can we have a safe house with a generator, internet access, and let a plane land? And that is an interesting route. Why not go into Libya, where Wagner already operates, then through Chad? 

I kicked it out to people who track military in Africa more than I do, will post what they say if they respond. 

Would be pretty amazing/wild/dedicated if Ukraine is trying to shut down some major avenues that Russia is using to avoid sanctions. They have a serious pipeline/logistics chain for moving people/materials/etc. to parts of Africa, and bringing back resources/cash into Russia. All roads ultimately go through the Russian bases in Syria, but Syria would be way too much for Ukraine to do something with a small team, whereas interdicting in Africa, especially with the backing of the Sudanese government, would be the easiest way to cripple Russian aspirations to get around sanctions.

That's some serious long-game stuff right there on the part of Ukraine.

[MissingInAction 25,078]

52 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

I wish people from Chad were called Chads instead of Chadians.

Popped collars on the national flag.

[pops 6,985]

53 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

One tweet upthread suggested that was not real footage, it was shitty video game footage russia is passing off as real. 

Some pretty good posters that are a lot smarter than me posted it as real so I was a bit confused, but that looks very video game to me. 

[InkaUtexas 25,945]

2 minutes ago, pops said:

Some pretty good posters that are a lot smarter than me posted it as real so I was a bit confused, but that looks very video game to me. 

If it was apologize for posting. I don't play video games anymore, but if they are that good might need to rethink that. 

[BamaATL 16,593]

3 hours ago, MissingInAction said:

WW3 here we come/are.

The dominoes are falling for this broaden.  The lynch pin is still what China does.  I will say I don't have a lot of faith that an authoritarian ruler facing an economic reckoning is going to make the best long term decision.  If China does something crazy, we are all going to the mattresses, because my guess is a lot of other countries looking to settle scores are going to go at it (think Pakistan-India, Israel-Iran, North Korea-South Korea).  If all this goes off at once, it'll be a humongous shit show.  Anyone under 45 probably needs to at least consider the reality that under this circumstance the potential for recall is real.  

[pops 6,985]

4 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

If it was apologize for posting. I don't play video games anymore, but if they are that good might need to rethink that. 

Like I said it could definitely be real but the reason I thought fake is because it just looked too good. If it is real,  that's disappointing. 

[InkaUtexas 25,945]

2 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

The dominoes are falling for this broaden.  The lynch pin is still what China does.  I will say I don't have a lot of faith that an authoritarian ruler facing an economic reckoning is going to make the best long term decision.  If China does something crazy, we are all going to the mattresses, because my guess is a lot of other countries looking to settle scores are going to go at it (think Pakistan-India, Israel-Iran, North Korea-South Korea).  If all this goes off at once, it'll be a humongous shit show.  Anyone under 45 probably needs to at least consider the reality that under this circumstance the potential for recall is real.  

Interesting that these are countries that believe in their destiny or are scared of their independence. This shit happens I am moving to South America. Africa will become a tribal shit show more than now. 

There are three potential flashpoints in South America. Ecuador and Peru (Fought in the 1990's), Chile and Argentina who still maintain active navies to watch each other, and Colombia and Venezuela due to history and internal pressure. 

[MissingInAction 25,078]

9 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

The dominoes are falling for this broaden.  The lynch pin is still what China does.  I will say I don't have a lot of faith that an authoritarian ruler facing an economic reckoning is going to make the best long term decision.  If China does something crazy, we are all going to the mattresses, because my guess is a lot of other countries looking to settle scores are going to go at it (think Pakistan-India, Israel-Iran, North Korea-South Korea).  If all this goes off at once, it'll be a humongous shit show.  Anyone under 45 probably needs to at least consider the reality that under this circumstance the potential for recall is real.  

Our only hope is a decisive strike, much like our atom bomb strikes on Japan, to chill the world the fuck out.

That strike is Moscow.

Edited September 19, 2023 by MissingInAction

[atomheartbevo 89,672]

8 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

  If China does something crazy, we are all going to the mattresses, because my guess is a lot of other countries looking to settle scores are going to go at it (think Pakistan-India, Israel-Iran, North Korea-South Korea). 

Don't forget China and India's border-clashes.

[InkaUtexas 25,945]

5 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Don't forget China and India's border-clashes.

If India had to defend both borders they go Nuke. I mean fuck it, they get reincarnated they believe. Well most of them. 

 

[Rimbo 25,936]

Mick Ryan on Zelensky's visit to DC

[Bevo 13,577]

2 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

If India had to defend both borders they go Nuke. I mean fuck it, they get reincarnated they believe. Well most of them. 

 

China and India nuking each other would eliminate 1/3rd of the world's total population without even considering the world impact of the nukes. It would also eliminate 13/509M sq km or 2.5% of the world's landmass.

[Wally Fairway 5,550]

6 minutes ago, Bevo said:

China and India nuking each other would eliminate 1/3rd of the world's total population without even considering the world impact of the nukes. It would also eliminate 13/509M sq km or 2.5% of the world's landmass.

Well, even if they did nuke each other it isn't like it would destroy their entire population or landmass, but if it was anything other than a small number of nukes then the economic impact would be huge globally.

[27-25 2,047]

Brilliant!

 

[atomheartbevo 89,672]

42 minutes ago, Bevo said:

China and India nuking each other would eliminate 1/3rd of the world's total population without even considering the world impact of the nukes. It would also eliminate 13/509M sq km or 2.5% of the world's landmass.

[Macanudo 12,979]

7 hours ago, MissingInAction said:

I've got the mug

 

Is that the only place you keep your Sharpies?

[Steel Shank 9,425]

3 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

If it was apologize for posting. I don't play video games anymore, but if they are that good might need to rethink that. 

If real footage, maybe it was one of those plywood decoy planes. Would explain the odd location close to the front. Just tossing shit against the wall here.

[The Dog 44,053]

 

[B00M 6,416]

4 hours ago, MissingInAction said:

Our only hope is a decisive strike, much like our atom bomb strikes on Japan, to chill the world the fuck out.

That strike is Moscow.

@BamaATL’s thoughts, followed by this… fuck man, I need more scotch … and toilet paper

[BamaATL 16,593]

1 hour ago, B00M said:

@BamaATL’s thoughts, followed by this… fuck man, I need more scotch … and toilet paper

I wouldn't panic, most all of this is still a remote possibility.  That having been said, there are worrying similarities to the conditions that caused WWI.  We all know that at least part of the cause were the treaties that caused significant and quick escalation (it's obviously more complex than that).  For example, right now if the Iranians were to intervene against Azerbaijan, it's a potential powder keg.  If the Israeli's decide to get involved, and wind up getting attacked, presumably we are in it with them against Iran.  At this point, does an opportunistic China make a move at Taiwan?  Under this scenario, the US would be tied up with Iran and China and the same time; thus leaving the door open for others to attempt to settle old scores, etc.  

What we need is for the temperature to be dialed down, and the best way I can think to do it is to have the Ukrainians win, and the sooner the better.  If suddenly the Russian military, even regrouping and licking it wounds were withdrawn from Ukraine, it would likely be enough of a deterrent to prevent Azerbaijan from attacking, much less potentially engaging in an all out war.  Generally speaking, when people see attacking as the worst option, typically more peaceful means are far more attractive.  Given that war is generally a losing proposition for everyone, and mostly outright lunacy, even crappy peace agreements are a better option.  Hopefully over time, crappy peace agreements get massaged and become more equitable for all.  Truth be told, there is value to be had with two sides constantly working together and compromising on constantly improving treaties.  

Just to be clear, I'm not saying Azerbaijan isn't rightfully aggrieved, to completely honest, this conflict is one I only have limited knowledge on.  What I am saying, is that there are better ways to solve our collective problems.  The chaos unleashed by the Russians and their invasion of Ukraine has upped the global temperature dramatically, and in my opinion, one of the best ways for the temperature to go down is for them to be defeated.  

[Schulz2.0 28,951]

 

[troph 24,804]

So what’s the latest summary? Some gains, some strategically important, Russians getting pommeled, drone warfare taking it to Russians across the border, anything else? 

[MissingInAction 25,078]

I think it is stagnating, but I hope not.

Edited September 20, 2023 by MissingInAction

[BamaATL 16,593]

Well the biggest news of late has been the disabling of much of the Black Sea fleet, it continues today.

The Ukrainians appear to have taken all the heights surrounding Bakhmut, and continue to press attacks towards Verbove, which if successful puts them only about 10km from completely piercing the Survokin line.  It's a slog on the ground, the Abrams should be in play shortly.  Russian supply and artillery continues to be cut and destroyed.  

[atomheartbevo 89,672]

4 minutes ago, MissingInAction said:

I think it is stagnating, but I hope not.

Feels more like a very methodical destruction of the more important/hard-to-replace parts of Russian defense infrastructure - namely their counter-battery units, their air defense units/ships, etc. in preparation for bigger things/counter-offensives.

Still can't believe how effectively they are neutering the Black Sea fleet just in the past two weeks, starting with the oil platforms, and how they are degrading Russia's air defenses in Crimea.

[Bevo 13,577]

13 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Feels more like a very methodical destruction of the more important/hard-to-replace parts of Russian defense infrastructure - namely their counter-battery units, their air defense units/ships, etc. in preparation for bigger things/counter-offensives.

Still can't believe how effectively they are neutering the Black Sea fleet just in the past two weeks, starting with the oil platforms, and how they are degrading Russia's air defenses in Crimea.

This is true, but once October hits, things will be at a stalemate until the spring. However, this winter, the US will start supplying long range artillery and some planes which will be able to accurately hit every place in occupied territory. Meanwhile, Russia will be mobilizing infantry and readying itself for the Ukraine spring offensive. By late spring, I would expect a lot more long range equipment and significant progress by Ukraine, breaking through those new defenses. Things should be looking good for Ukraine by Nov. 5, 2024

[Schulz2.0 28,951]

 

 

 

[Chopper 17,235]

1 hour ago, BamaATL said:

It's a slog on the ground, the Abrams should be in play shortly.  Russian supply and artillery continues to be cut and destroyed.  

I can't get the video to embed but this just came across my feed at post.news