Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[BamaATL 16,593]

22 minutes ago, B00M said:

At this point, what would any leader do? Is he going to inspire new volunteer soldiers with yet more extreme and unbelievable anti Ukrainian propaganda? Or maybe a terror attack against his own people?? Oh, Russia. You don’t have an equipment advantage and you can’t build new shit fast enough to matter. You’ll have to push through your own mine fields to take any more land, that you then need to some how occupy, when you can barely hold Crimea. If nukes, where? Kyiv and Lviv? The front lines? Then what? Another wave of nukes until surrender? so you can occupy a hostile nation of insurgents indefinitely? The only chance Russia ever had to win in Ukraine was the first few days. 

I'm not so sure about your last sentence, or maybe it needs a caveat.  Under the circumstances with which he did this, their only chance was immediate, but circumstances could have been much different.  I think all along his thought was, I will invade, treat this as an internal matter and tell the rest of the world to back off, Ukraine is part of Russia.  Given what we know now, and the west's collective response, that hasn't proven out.  That having been said, if the west hadn't stepped up to the plate, the situation would be much more dire. 

If you think about it, what if he had done this around 2017?  Would the west have rallied?  Would he have been able to sell it enough to people in power (No CR) to leave it to Russia as an internal matter?  Would the powers that be really have armed them enough to provide a real resistance?  My guess is probably not, and while he wouldn't have taken the country without casualties or losses, I think he probably does occupy Kyiv and to east with ease.  To be honest, looking back upon it, I think he missed his window to do this.  NATO largely goes as the US goes, and at that time our involvement in NATO was at least questionable, if not even in doubt.  

If you look back now at his interference campaign, while I'm sure it was multi-faceted, I think the truth is he really wanted a push for a U.S. withdraw from NATO.  Which brings us back in turn to Ukraine.  The truth is, it was always about Ukraine, not because of Ukraine, but because it's his first step in reforming the Russian Empire.  With the US out of the way, he had to be looking at most of Eastern Europe in his pocket, the Germans being easily corrupted and the French and British as being weak (with a bit of interference from Russia, even more so).  To be honest, he wasn't wrong on Europe, it's in decline (a big part of the reason the US has turned it's interests so heavily to the Indo-Pacific is because of GDP growth there vs GDP decline in Europe), especially militarily prior to this conflict, and the jury is out on moving forward (the new additions to NATO are great, but we will see).  

Timing can be everything in life, and in truth I think he missed his window.  Don't get me wrong, I'm thankful for that, but when I really consider it all, I think we are all lucky that he did.  

[atomheartbevo 89,654]

All of this goes back to: Why February of 2022?  From a geopolitical viewpoint, if he was wanting/waiting for "friendlier" administrations in the US/Europe, seems like he would have waited until late 2024.

Coming up on 600 days into this war, do we agree with Peter Zeihan that he moved in February of 2022, because a tipping point had been reached in Russian demographics, and from 2021/2022, Putin's pool of eligible draftees would be shrinking every single year, and Putin was nervous that if he waited too long, he wouldn't have enough manpower...which gets into how many people are actually in Russia and/or available for service.

[BamaATL 16,593]

25 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

All of this goes back to: Why February of 2022?  From a geopolitical viewpoint, if he was wanting/waiting for "friendlier" administrations in the US/Europe, seems like he would have waited until late 2024.

Coming up on 600 days into this war, do we agree with Peter Zeihan that he moved in February of 2022, because a tipping point had been reached in Russian demographics, and from 2021/2022, Putin's pool of eligible draftees would be shrinking every single year, and Putin was nervous that if he waited too long, he wouldn't have enough manpower...which gets into how many people are actually in Russia and/or available for service.

I wouldn't agree.  I don't think his own forces really factored all that much in his thought process.

1.  I think the cancer is real, whether or not it's remission is anyone's guess.  But the cancer hasn't driven him to madness, it's made him concerned he wouldn't meet his goal before dying.  

2.  Prior to all this, he was known for being meticulous and playing the long game.  Once his own time line came into question, it affected his decision making.  Further, for the longest time, it seemed like every incremental step he took went the way he wanted.  Suddenly,  that wasn't the case and his meticulous plan of western erosion of support in question/down the toilet, combined with his cancer, he became impulsive.  

Churchill has long been famous for telling everyone that would listen well in advance that Hitler's plan all along was war and revenge for Germany.  He was right.  Putin's plan, from day one was reconstituting the empire, he just set about doing it very slowly in a way where he might have been successful.  Whereas in the past he might have been too cautious, once his own mortality came into question he became too impulsive.  If any Western analysts were saying it a la Churchill, true to form, no one was listening until it was too late.  

[BamaATL 16,593]

Just to add to that a bit.  In looking back upon everything, it's pretty clear to me that this was all his plan at least as early 2004ish, when he started panning and then went into Georgia.  At every turn, despite the outside world either turning a blind eye or worse, it would appear that he kept defying the odds and wasn't faced with any real consequences.  Also, he had people around him saying this isn't good, etc, yet he kept pressing and testing the world, and he kept getting away with it.  Where initially he might have had pause, he kept having success, and after a while he probably started to believe the people around him saying the boss never gets it wrong.  It just kept escalating and escalating into a situation where he was surrounded with people who convinced themselves that Putin never gets anything wrong, and he in turn started to believe it.  

If you or I, in a workplace setting start to get a big head because we've had a winning streak, things have just gone swimmingly on everything despite difficulty, it's only natural that it can go to your head.   Anyone with experience knows that this is fleeting, because inevitably we will be humbled at some point, screw up because we are blinded by our ego and refusal to see things any other way.  In most of our cases, that means we get fired, lose a client, whatever.  In any event, we all get humbled at some point.  I think that's kind of a universal human experience.  What happens if someone like Putin is never humbled?  Ordinary people like you and I experience hubris, which is ultimately a learning lesson.  Whatever supersized version of hubris that Putin has, it's a scale all it's own.  

[RPM 26,318]

11 hours ago, Chopper said:

But if vodka or food is suddenly unavailable to the average russian then, sure, shit's gonna go down

Target the vodka distilleries. War over in 2 weeks.

[MagicSoccerSpray 1,732]

 

[atomheartbevo 89,654]

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-10-04-23/index.html
 

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov has emphasized the critical nature of testing the siren systems in Russia, following pre-planned tests across the country on Wednesday. 

According to Peskov, such testing is “not only appropriate, it is indispensable.” Drawing a parallel with Japan's regular emergency evacuation exercises due to increased seismic hazards, Peskov said it is necessary to carry out training in other areas as well.

Earlier, Russia's Ministry of Emergency Situations had announced the testing of its public warning system in all regions of the country on Wednesday morning, sounding sirens and interrupting radio and television broadcasts.

The sirens would sound with an announcement, saying, “Attention everyone,” the ministry said, adding that there was no reason to panic during the tests.

Radio and TV broadcasts would also be interrupted for one minute, according to the ministry.

Reports and videos shared on local Telegram channels indicated that sirens were audible Wednesday morning in central Moscow, the Moscow region, and multiple other regions across Russia.

——————

[RPM 26,318]

20 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-10-04-23/index.html
 

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov has emphasized the critical nature of testing the siren systems in Russia, following pre-planned tests across the country on Wednesday. 

According to Peskov, such testing is “not only appropriate, it is indispensable.” Drawing a parallel with Japan's regular emergency evacuation exercises due to increased seismic hazards, Peskov said it is necessary to carry out training in other areas as well.

Earlier, Russia's Ministry of Emergency Situations had announced the testing of its public warning system in all regions of the country on Wednesday morning, sounding sirens and interrupting radio and television broadcasts.

The sirens would sound with an announcement, saying, “Attention everyone,” the ministry said, adding that there was no reason to panic during the tests.

Radio and TV broadcasts would also be interrupted for one minute, according to the ministry.

Reports and videos shared on local Telegram channels indicated that sirens were audible Wednesday morning in central Moscow, the Moscow region, and multiple other regions across Russia.

——————

FWIW, we are doing the same thing today at 1:20.

[Scheiss Meister 8,407]

10 minutes ago, RPM said:

FWIW, we are doing the same thing today at 1:20.

The conspiracy nuts aren't going to read anything into that coincidence, are they?

[Parliament 14,256]

delete

Edited October 4, 2023 by Parliament

[atomheartbevo 89,654]

29 minutes ago, Scheiss Meister said:

The conspiracy nuts aren't going to read anything into that coincidence, are they?

I hope they do. I’m encouraging it.

[RPM 26,318]

25 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I hope they do. I’m encouraging it.

They should all go to their secret prepper bunkers and shelter in place. We'll let them know when it's all clear. Might be a year, might be 5. Hope they got plenty on hand.

[atomheartbevo 89,654]

7 minutes ago, RPM said:

They should all go to their secret prepper bunkers and shelter in place. We'll let them know when it's all clear. Might be a year, might be 5. Hope they got plenty on hand.

 

Is that a bucket of burgers over his right shoulder?  That sits in your pantry or garage for years?

[RPM 26,318]

10 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

That sits in your pantry or garage for years?

25 to be precise.

[B00M 6,415]

3 hours ago, RPM said:

Target the vodka distilleries. War over in 2 weeks.

I don’t think there are enough missiles on the planet

 

1 hour ago, Scheiss Meister said:

The conspiracy nuts aren't going to read anything into that coincidence, are they?

Something, something, microchips, zombies, Russian hackers, follow the money, open your eyes and do your own research!!

[Trey3216 15,346]

14 minutes ago, RPM said:

25 to be precise.

 

25 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

Is that a bucket of burgers over his right shoulder?  That sits in your pantry or garage for years?

 

14 minutes ago, RPM said:

25 to be precise.

[Schulz2.0 28,951]

[Braff Zacklin 13,560]

37 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

Is that a bucket of burgers over his right shoulder?  That sits in your pantry or garage for years?

Holocaust pantries are big business in this part of the country (Intermountain West, i.e., Idaho, Utah, Nevada, the Palouse, etc.). Some of it stems from the prepper movement, but most of it originates from the area's predominant religion.

It's not uncommon to encounter giant tubs of all sorts of freeze-dried shit in just about every grocery store around here. And then there are the case-lot sales in which people buy grosses of questionable canned goods (e.g., Nalley "chili") and such at a time.

[Storm the Field 5,294]

Shitty CR angle to Ukraine funding resulting from McCarthy getting the boot yesterday. 

 

[Schulz2.0 28,951]

1 minute ago, Storm the Field said:

Shitty CR angle to Ukraine funding resulting from McCarthy getting the boot yesterday. 

 

Ian Bremmer brought up yesterday that booting McCarthy would likely be bad for Ukrainian aid getting passed.

[Snake Diggity 4,622]

?’s for the experts on the board:

How much of Putin’s strategy is waiting for the results of the 2024 elections?  Reading thru everything, it seems like Russia is proper fucked if Ukraine continues to receive western support.  Is Putin holding out hope that Russian-friendly candidates gain control in 2024 and shut off the flow of money and weapons to Ukraine, meaning if Ukraine-friendly candidates gain/win control that Putin will begin to admit defeat and come to the table?

My guess from all the numbers posted in this thread is that if Ukraine is going to “win” this war, that they are about 1/3 of the way there.  Is that accurate?

[27-25 2,047]

 

[Pescado_Rojo 19,416]

23 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

Ian Bremmer brought up yesterday that booting McCarthy would likely be bad for Ukrainian aid getting passed.

Hopefully there's some "Black" budget money that can be diverted. Probably not much compared to a congressional authorization but hopefully enough to provide ammo and spare parts for existing systems

[Schulz2.0 28,951]

10 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

?’s for the experts on the board:

How much of Putin’s strategy is waiting for the results of the 2024 elections?  Reading thru everything, it seems like Russia is proper fucked if Ukraine continues to receive western support.  Is Putin holding out hope that Russian-friendly candidates gain control in 2024 and shut off the flow of money and weapons to Ukraine, meaning if Ukraine-friendly candidates gain/win control that Putin will begin to admit defeat and come to the table?

My guess from all the numbers posted in this thread is that if Ukraine is going to “win” this war, that they are about 1/3 of the way there.  Is that accurate?

I posted an article yesterday that laid out that it is very much Putin's plan and he's activity attempting to make it a reality using misinformation via groups like the FSB.

[Schulz2.0 28,951]

 

 

 

[Schulz2.0 28,951]

[BamaATL 16,593]

Looks like there are other ways around funding for now

Also, I saw yesterday where the Pentagon discovered $5 billion of unspent funding the other day.  Of course this was previously unknown.  

 

[Schulz2.0 28,951]

2 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Looks like there are other ways around funding for now

Also, I saw yesterday where the Pentagon discovered $5 billion of unspent funding the other day.  Of course this was previously unknown.  

 

[BamaATL 16,593]

3 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

In a strange story, somehow missed by media, the Gerald Ford Carrier group was recently seized by authorities in a brazen attempt by Iran to smuggle them.  Subsequently, they have been sent to the Black Sea and are now under Ukrainian control.  Also, suddenly there were 6k US sailors who changed their names to Johnsonov yesterday.  

[Pescado_Rojo 19,416]

1 minute ago, BamaATL said:

In a strange story, somehow missed by media, the Gerald Ford Carrier group was recently seized by authorities in a brazen attempt by Iran to smuggle them.  Subsequently, they have been sent to the Black Sea and are now under Ukrainian control.  Also, suddenly there were 6k US sailors who changed their names to Johnsonov yesterday.  

Also, Ukraine recently "found" several previously unknown "Mig 16s" in storage. 

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

20 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Also, I saw yesterday where the Pentagon discovered $5 billion of unspent funding the other day

[MissingInAction 25,041]

1 hour ago, BamaATL said:

Looks like there are other ways around funding for now

Also, I saw yesterday where the Pentagon discovered $5 billion of unspent funding the other day.  Of course this was previously unknown.  

 

The Pentagon:

BTW, everyone start buying as much cocaine as you can afford.

Edited October 4, 2023 by MissingInAction

[Parliament 14,256]

And a buncha ATACMS-olov systems, complete with the company that makes them (located in North Bethesda, Siberia)

[KYHorn 17,038]

 

 Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine Mykhailo Fedorov showed footage of a newly designed 'invisibility cloak' that Ukrainian snipers/SSO units can use to hide from thermal imagers and drones with thermal camera's. It only weighs 2.5kg and is protected against rain and high temperatures.

 

 

[Parliament 14,256]

So it's a bathrobe?  Still cool though.

[MissingInAction 25,041]

[Schulz2.0 28,951]

 

[MillerEP 30,455]

 

[MissingInAction 25,041]

Will drones make all modern air defense systems obsolete,  or is russia just that fucking stupid?

[MillerEP 30,455]

They're just that stupid. As with most things, when something new is introduced (drones), something else will be created to counter it. I would expect more and better anti-air with counter-drone tech. As long as people can lob things at you from far away in relative safety, I don't ever see that going away in warfare.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11,669]

3 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

?’s for the experts on the board:

so . . .

 

 

 

 

 

. . . everyone?

[kevwun 15,774]

Somebody is going to deploy an energy weapon that fries the drones' electronics in the near future.  Probably us.

Edited October 4, 2023 by kevwun

[BamaATL 16,593]

15 minutes ago, kevwun said:

Somebody is going to deploy an energy weapon that fries the drones' electronics in the near future.  Probably us.

Champ UAV we have it, and other systems.

https://www.militaryaerospace.com/power/article/14072339/emp-high-power-electromagnetic-weapons-railguns-microwaves

 

[MillerEP 30,455]

^Keep going!

[RPM 26,318]

 

[MissingInAction 25,041]

[wildcat09 29,349]

21 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

I don’t think Putin himself is motivated by a fear of mass unrest or discontent; that’s not to dismiss the possibility of it happening, just Putin as being concerned. His first instinct is to double down when faced by internal headwinds and he likely concluded from the Wagner Putsch that he indeed has this in hand. 
 

Which is why I go back to the original contention that he is leaving Moscow and St. Petersburg mostly untouched because they are key to his strategy of trying to minimize the economic impacts of the war and their workforce is more valuable at home than in arms for the moment.  He really has a tsarist mentality where all of Russia is his to use as he sees fit and he doesn’t think much about the agency of the serfs he pushes around on the chess board. 
 

And again— that’s not to say that popular revolt is impossible, it very much is possible. Just that outside of specific problem areas like Chechnya, Putin doesn’t worry much about it, not part of his calculus. 

I agree that this probably is his main reason for leaving Moscow and St. Petersburg untouched for now, but it's been pretty widely reported that the overthrow and death of Gaddafi terrified him and much of his behavior since then seems to bear that out.

Can't say I blame him, getting sodomized to death by an angry mob seems like it would suck.

[Chad Fuck 17,671]

So it's a bathrobe?  Still cool though.

TACTICAL bathrobe.

[Grade of D as in David 13,253]

6 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

I agree that this probably is his main reason for leaving Moscow and St. Petersburg untouched for now, but it's been pretty widely reported that the overthrow and death of Gaddafi terrified him and much of his behavior since then seems to bear that out.

Can't say I blame him, getting sodomized to death by an angry mob seems like it would suck.

Sodomized to death, ok yeah that's too far. - NowThis

[Rimbo 25,921]

7 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-10-04-23/index.html
 

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov has emphasized the critical nature of testing the siren systems in Russia, following pre-planned tests across the country on Wednesday. 

According to Peskov, such testing is “not only appropriate, it is indispensable.” Drawing a parallel with Japan's regular emergency evacuation exercises due to increased seismic hazards, Peskov said it is necessary to carry out training in other areas as well.

Earlier, Russia's Ministry of Emergency Situations had announced the testing of its public warning system in all regions of the country on Wednesday morning, sounding sirens and interrupting radio and television broadcasts.

The sirens would sound with an announcement, saying, “Attention everyone,” the ministry said, adding that there was no reason to panic during the tests.

Radio and TV broadcasts would also be interrupted for one minute, according to the ministry.

Reports and videos shared on local Telegram channels indicated that sirens were audible Wednesday morning in central Moscow, the Moscow region, and multiple other regions across Russia.

——————