Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[MissingInAction 25204]

9 minutes ago, Nostradumbass said:

I like how the facts on the ground, as close as we can tell, according to non-Russian sources equals a "narrative" if it's against the prevailing wisdom here. That's a good way to stay wrong. But please keep the dog memes coming, they're helping.

Wtf are you talking about? 

We are getting data directly from verified sources and boots on the ground in the shit over there.

How do you type with putins peepee in your mouth?

[InkaUtexas 26172]

Just now, Nostradumbass said:

Yes you are obviously correct, but my point was to be skeptical of how things are initially presented. Not a lot of skepticism here. That's how you end up being repeatedly wrong.

Like Russia? 

Nice three day operation. bunch of vodka drinking, murdering dicks. 

Oh, and some of us have experience seeing their work first hand. 

Again, who the fuck are you? 

 

[atomheartbevo 89824]

1 hour ago, Nostradumbass said:

When you've been wrong about Russian troop numbers, their competency,

Russia has lost the biggest and most strategically important cities they took after February of 2022 - Kherson and Kharkiv.  They couldn’t hold on to them, even though they had plenty of time to dig in, and did dig in.

It took Russia 9 fucking months to capture Bakhmut, a city the size of San Marcos, and that was half the distance to the actual Russian border than Austin is to Houston..and Russia is struggling to hold it as we speak.  Ukraine is moving into areas that Russia took in 2014.

Show us these massive amounts of Russian troops that never seem to materialize.  

Are they being held in reserve to finally take Kyiv?

Or are their a bunch of Russian versions of Pickett standing there saying they have no division?

[InkaUtexas 26172]

1 minute ago, Nostradumbass said:

Does the Ukrainian officer I quoted have Putin's peepee in his mouth? Take it up with him, I guess.

 

 

War is hard. There are wins and losses. Now tells us how the column heading towards KYIV was a feint. 

Meanwhile Russia is retreating and the rats already fled the sinking ship. 

[MissingInAction 25204]

He's either gone or the mods put him on ignore for me after reporting him. I can't see his bullshit other than quotes now.

Going to bed. Ou sucks.

[InkaUtexas 26172]

Good.... Plus he had more middle fingers than OU coaches will get tomorrow! 

OU Sux. 

[Nivek 16992]

15 hours ago, KYHorn said:

 

 

 

 

So it was Zelensky himself that trained Egyptian sharks to eat Russians?   Color me even more impressed with this guy.

[Nivek 16992]

10 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

@MissingInAction  Thoughts on this newbie? Texags or did the Kremlin finally find the Surly? 

We have had russian trolls before.   

[BamaATL 16593]

 

[butthurt 1531]

 

 

[Nivek 16992]

 

 

НУ відстій

 

Spoiler

OUsux

 

Edited October 7, 2023 by Nivek

[Armybrat 40920]

6 hours ago, Nivek said:

We have had russian trolls before.   

They are crawling all over the US gun boards and the City Data forum.

[MillerEP 30501]

Fuck Russia, Fuck Iran, Fuck Hamas, Fuck Oklahoma. Today's been rough.

[Schulz2.0 29012]

 

 

[MissingInAction 25204]

Alright. 

I took a couple of days of for our weekend.

Let's get back at it.

[wackawacka 187]

How low on weapons must you be if relying on North Korea.

https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-north-korea-vladimir-putin-rail-traffic-military-trasfers/

[Pato del Muerto 52616]

9 hours ago, Armybrat said:

They are crawling all over the US gun boards and the City Data forum.

Receptive audiences

[atomheartbevo 89824]

1 hour ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Receptive audiences

I'm on a WWI forum and earlier this year, somebody made a joke about the Russians pulling out Mosin–Nagants out of storage to use in Ukraine, and a couple of people outed themselves by getting pissed off and whining about Ukrainians causing the war.  It's the weirdest fucking fetish with some people, because I know some of these people had to be jerking off to Red Dawn or the various survivalist novels in the 80s.

[atomheartbevo 89824]

3 hours ago, MissingInAction said:

Let's get back at it.

You know who is still chugging along?  The folks counting the deaths of Russian officers, as they close in on 3,000.

We lost  7,877 officers in Vietnam over 10 years.  At the peak, we had 543,000 American combat troops in Vietnam (April of 1969) and ultimately something like 3.1 million Americans served in Vietnam, so we had a helluva lot more people in Vietnam than the Russians did/do in Ukraine.

However, with those numbers out of the way, we were still only losing 2-3 officers a day during Vietnam.  Russia is losing 5 per day, with a much smaller military force than we had in Vietnam. And our officer numbers in Vietnam were skewed a bit because we lost over 2,200 aircraft, and those casualties/deaths would mostly be officers. Russia just isn't flying the kinds of aerial missions that we did, so their officers deaths are going to almost all be from ground combat units.

On a side note, between '64-'73, we conscripted 1.9 million men.  Granted, we had 60 million more people in 1970 than Russia does in the 2020s, but it's telling that Russia made a huge deal out of conscripting 318,000 last year.

Yeah, Afghanistan maybe a better comparison, but the Russians have lost 500 more officers in 590 days in Ukraine than we lost in both officers and enlistees in Afghanistan from 2001-2021. Even if one were to multiple our peak number of troops (130,000) by 2.3 to match Russia's peak of 300,000 or so, that would be around 5,500 American deaths, and we know the Russians have lost a fuckload more than that.

Not sure where I was going with all of this, other than Russian's military is suffering a lot for having lost so many officers, and given that their officers do the jobs that we have a lot of NCOs do (or their captains/majors are doing the jobs we have 2Lt/1Lt's doing), and that they don't train their NCOs to step up the way we do.....I wish some Russians would get to writing the books about their experiences, as some did with Afghanistan.

[KYHorn 17201]

Full article: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/10/07/joe-biden-huge-final-ukraine-aid-package/ 

[Armybrat 40920]

8 hours ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Receptive audiences

 

8 hours ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Receptive audiences

Quoted twice to affirm.

[Bevo 13601]

Any movements or are we entering the winter stalemate months?

[Schulz2.0 29012]

6 minutes ago, Bevo said:

Any movements or are we entering the winter stalemate months?

The minefields and entrenchments mean Ukraine is mainly advancing treeline to treeline. Russia is fine throwing their defenders into the meat grinder. Ukraine can't operate that way.

[Bevo 13601]

3 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

The minefields and entrenchments mean Ukraine is mainly advancing treeline to treeline. Russia is fine throwing their defenders into the meat grinder. Ukraine can't operate that way.

I assume that Ukraine has to start looking for defendable positions for the winter, though. Obviously, all the big city targets are out for 2023. 

[Neonmoon 38130]

I think they could reach Tokmak 

[Schulz2.0 29012]

 

[BamaATL 16593]

3 hours ago, Bevo said:

Any movements or are we entering the winter stalemate months?

Well, I wouldn't call it a winter stalemate, as conditions for operations actually get better come a few weeks of freezing.  However, rasputista, the mud season is upon them.  The spring mud season is generally worse and longer (due to snow melt), but its pretty limiting during the fall wet season, which we are now in, though I've seen no reports of yet to indicate this.  

I did, however, see that today Ukraine had it's first snowfall, in high altitude areas.  

[Viper 12112]

 

27 posts so click on the thread reader link for the rest

Check out this thread at Thread Reader App. https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1711101284458058029.html

 

 

[dimyh 1874]

3 hours ago, BamaATL said:

Well, I wouldn't call it a winter stalemate, as conditions for operations actually get better come a few weeks of freezing.  However, rasputista, the mud season is upon them.  The spring mud season is generally worse and longer (due to snow melt), but its pretty limiting during the fall wet season, which we are now in, though I've seen no reports of yet to indicate this.  

I did, however, see that today Ukraine had it's first snowfall, in high altitude areas.  

I have also heard (and no idea if valid or not) that the rasputitsa is not as severe once you get south of Tokmak. The soil shifts more to a sandy composition which limits the mud. So if they could actually reach Tokmak then UA may still be able to continue offensive operations in the south. The big question remains on how soon they could actually secure Tokmak. I believe they are still 25-30 kms out.

[BamaATL 16593]

11 minutes ago, dimyh said:

I have also heard (and no idea if valid or not) that the rasputitsa is not as severe once you get south of Tokmak. The soil shifts more to a sandy composition which limits the mud. So if they could actually reach Tokmak then UA may still be able to continue offensive operations in the south. The big question remains on how soon they could actually secure Tokmak. I believe they are still 25-30 kms out.

I don't know the answer to the soil conditions.  What I have read about Tokmak isn't encouraging though.  Apparently the Russians are preparing to make this a hill to die upon, by further fortifying the area, having two level concrete bunkers around it, etc.  If the Ukrainians can get there, they may well be better served attempting to surround and lay siege to it; a la Vicksburg.  Unfortunately, that would have enormously bad consequences for the any civilians left in the area.  As shitty as that would be, the reality is they are going to have to juggle the loss of civilians vs the potential loss of troops.  That's a shit deal.  

[Laxtonto 12121]

1 hour ago, Viper said:

 

27 posts so click on the thread reader link for the rest

Check out this thread at Thread Reader App. https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1711101284458058029.html

 

 

If they are saying that 70-90% are caused by bleeding, then most likely you need to take the death toll numbers from the classic battlefield casualty formula and double if not triple them.

 

The entire premise of the modern casualty prediction formula is that small arms fire and large-scale machine gun suppression fire create injuries that actively degrade combat units to force them off the line, but the modern battle dress and field medicine mitigates most deaths and even limits limb amputation.  If they are simply fleeing and leaving their wounded and maybe going back later to get them as the thread suggests, the true death toll will be horrific. It is not just the blood loss, but also the exposure to the elements and extended time between injury to treatment that is going to add to the death toll.

Wounds that could be treated with minimal difficulty in a combat support or field hospital in hours that would see combatants recover and rotate back to the front with minimal recovery time become life-threatening if left untreated for 12 hours or more. If this is a common occurrence, then the 5 to 1 or 3 to 1 injuries to fatalities seen in WW2 might be a much more approximate proxy than the current combat ratio of 10 - 17 to 1 that is more commonly used in "modern" combat.

[Viper 12112]

I'm interested in how this plays out at the UN. Can anything even be done when a security council member is breaking UN agreements?

❗️North Korea has sharply increased shipments to Russia, according to the Beyond Parallel project of the American Center for Strategic and International Studies.

It seems the "North Korean Express" is operational. The analysts recorded a sharp increase in the number of cargo shipments between North Korea and Russia after a meeting of the leaders of both states in September.

A satellite image of a railway facility in the North Korean city of Tumangan, located on the border with Russia, dated October 5, 2023, showed an unprecedented number of freight cars – about 73 in total.

Activity in Tumangan is much higher than what American analysts from Beyond Parallel observed at the facility over the past five years – even before the coronavirus pandemic. Moreover, construction continues nearby, likely for a new warehouse. "Given that Kim and Putin discussed some military exchange and cooperation issues at the recent summit, the sharp increase in rail traffic likely indicates North Korean arms and ammunition shipments to Russia," the publication states.

Analysts believe that in exchange for weapons, Kim might receive much-needed energy and food assistance, as well as advanced weapons technology, including those related to intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarines with nuclear ballistic missiles, and military reconnaissance satellites.

There are concerns that the potential transfer of Russian technologies will increase the threat associated with North Korea's growing arsenal of nuclear weapons and missiles aimed at the US, South Korea, and Japan.

 

[Schulz2.0 29012]

 

 

[Walser 1110]

35 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

I don't know the answer to the soil conditions.  What I have read about Tokmak isn't encouraging though.  Apparently the Russians are preparing to make this a hill to die upon, by further fortifying the area, having two level concrete bunkers around it, etc.  If the Ukrainians can get there, they may well be better served attempting to surround and lay siege to it; a la Vicksburg.  Unfortunately, that would have enormously bad consequences for the any civilians left in the area.  As shitty as that would be, the reality is they are going to have to juggle the loss of civilians vs the potential loss of troops.  That's a shit deal.  

What about going around it? Give it the Rabaul treatment?

[Schulz2.0 29012]

 

 

 

[BamaATL 16593]

1 minute ago, Schulz2.0 said:

 

 

Shocking, you mean to tell me the cartel that hides behind their "neutrality" and launders money for the world's most evil people are susceptible to corruption?  Why I never.  

Fuck the Swiss, if I had it my way I'd have the labeled as a state sponsor of terrorism.  

[BamaATL 16593]

7 minutes ago, Walser said:

What about going around it? Give it the Rabaul treatment?

I only have a rudimentary understanding of the battle of Rabaul, but from what I recall of it/briefly skimmed, I'm not sure I understand what you mean.  Can you elaborate? 

[Schulz2.0 29012]

 

 

 

[Scheiss Meister 8413]

10 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

I only have a rudimentary understanding of the battle of Rabaul, but from what I recall of it/briefly skimmed, I'm not sure I understand what you mean.  Can you elaborate? 

In WW II we bypassed Rabaul, mostly cutting off supplies, and let it wither and die on the vine.  The island was much too powerfully defended to make a direct attack on it, so it was just left alone and cut off.  It eventually stopped being a threat and tied up thousands of Japanese troops and sailors.

[Chopper 17287]

27 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

 

"Spectacular" actually undersells that one. Holy shit that was glorious.

I accidentally deleted the post about Tokmak I wanted to add to. Apparently the Abrams was built for the type of terrain it will encounter there in the winter. The tank and its tracks are very long and very wide, making it very "light-footed" in terms of how the weight gets disbursed.

Ukraine will have a challenge with the necessary support and supply chain for fuel and repairs, as well as to make sure they don't encounter anti-tank mines. Also they won't have an over-abundance of Abrams. But at least there's some hope they can inflict damage throughout the winter. https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-new-heavy-abrams-tanks-mud-experts-2023-10

 

 

Edited October 8, 2023 by Chopper

[Viper 12112]

More Russian lies being called out

 

 

[MissingInAction 25204]

Being a cunt gets you dead.

Not being a cunt gets you not dead.

[Bevo 13601]

What does being a bitch get me?

[AUS-97HORN 11824]

8 minutes ago, Bevo said:

What does being a bitch get me?

bitches

[Bevo 13601]

1 minute ago, AUS-97HORN said:

bitches

I like the sound of that!

[atomheartbevo 89824]

5 hours ago, Viper said:

27 posts so click on the thread reader link for the rest

Check out this thread at Thread Reader App. https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1711101284458058029.html

 

4 hours ago, Laxtonto said:

If they are saying that 70-90% are caused by bleeding, then most likely you need to take the death toll numbers from the classic battlefield casualty formula and double if not triple them.

The entire premise of the modern casualty prediction formula is that small arms fire and large-scale machine gun suppression fire create injuries that actively degrade combat units to force them off the line, but the modern battle dress and field medicine mitigates most deaths and even limits limb amputation.  If they are simply fleeing and leaving their wounded and maybe going back later to get them as the thread suggests, the true death toll will be horrific. It is not just the blood loss, but also the exposure to the elements and extended time between injury to treatment that is going to add to the death toll.

Wounds that could be treated with minimal difficulty in a combat support or field hospital in hours that would see combatants recover and rotate back to the front with minimal recovery time become life-threatening if left untreated for 12 hours or more. If this is a common occurrence, then the 5 to 1 or 3 to 1 injuries to fatalities seen in WW2 might be a much more approximate proxy than the current combat ratio of 10 - 17 to 1 that is more commonly used in "modern" combat.

The huge amount of effort we put into our logistics chain to get bullets and food to the grunts on the front line has the benefit of helping to quickly shuttle the wounded to the rear, and either get some very high-level care within the theater within a very short amount of time (ye olde golden hour) , or have them on an aircraft to an area where they can get it.

Russia is using Scooby Doo vans for moving artillery shells around, and I'm betting they aren't the best for casualties these days.

[dimyh 1874]

3 hours ago, BamaATL said:

I don't know the answer to the soil conditions.  What I have read about Tokmak isn't encouraging though.  Apparently the Russians are preparing to make this a hill to die upon, by further fortifying the area, having two level concrete bunkers around it, etc.  If the Ukrainians can get there, they may well be better served attempting to surround and lay siege to it; a la Vicksburg.  Unfortunately, that would have enormously bad consequences for the any civilians left in the area.  As shitty as that would be, the reality is they are going to have to juggle the loss of civilians vs the potential loss of troops.  That's a shit deal.  

Agreed that taking Tokmak is going to be tough. Russia knew it was going to be a key focal point and built up their defensive lines in the area.

My hopes in the spring was that UA would be able to get a breakthrough east of Tokmak, then push west flanking most of the defensive obstacles before completely securing the town. Then as UA would push south to Melitopol they would also clear the left bank of the Dniepro (this was before the dam was blown) and get pontoon bridges setup to shorten their logistic tail. They wouldn't attack Melitopol just yet, merely surround it for a long term siege. The rest of the push wasn't to necessarily get to the Azov sea but push close enough south to get the highway north out of Crimea under fire control and get the Kerch bridge in missle range. That would effectively cut them off from any supplies.

All of this to force a long winter for Putin. To make him and the rest of his leadership sweat the budgeting period heading into 2024. To keep the political momentum hitting on both sides. Threatening Crimea would be a huge blow to the Russian psyche. Plus the positive gains would keep that pro-Ukrainian support still pumping. Then in 2024 would be the big campaign to liberate the entire south.

Alas that's not to be...too much hopium on my side. Not to say that Ukraine is now losing, just that the timeline is not the same. 2023 could just be a large shaping operation with a focus on attrition. Hopefully we can get into Tokmak before year end.

 

 

[Gatorubet 30321]

Just a comment to say I think that Congressional support for Ukraine against Russia - and Iran - just got a hell of a lot easier to sell,  given what’s going on in Israel….with Iran’s bloody fucking fingers all over it.

[atomheartbevo 89824]

7 hours ago, BamaATL said:

I don't know the answer to the soil conditions.  What I have read about Tokmak isn't encouraging though.  Apparently the Russians are preparing to make this a hill to die upon, by further fortifying the area, having two level concrete bunkers around it, etc.  If the Ukrainians can get there, they may well be better served attempting to surround and lay siege to it; a la Vicksburg.  Unfortunately, that would have enormously bad consequences for the any civilians left in the area.  As shitty as that would be, the reality is they are going to have to juggle the loss of civilians vs the potential loss of troops.  That's a shit deal.  

Counterpoint:  The Russians are moving their rail lines further (farther!) south, so while they maybe trying to prepare areas near/around Tokmak, somebody upstairs has decided that they will lose it at some point, and risk their rail lines coming under HIMARS or even tube artillery very soon.

On a side note, some stuff from the Russian officers killed in Ukraine twitter account - first, they are still turning up dead from 3-4 months ago, and second, these are confirmed by Russian social media accounts and their version of Find-A-Grave.

This dude was the equivalent of our NBC troops, and I don't picture them used in combat very much, but Russia needs the manpower.

This guy was an enlisted conscript on the Moskva, and 18 months later he's a fucking tank platoon commander.  Well, he was.

 

[atomheartbevo 89824]

This guy was an NCO until he was promoted back in April, making him a 49 year-old 2nd Lieutenant, who then died 3 months later.  From Dagestan, one of the outer republics that Putin loves to pull from.  Gotta love the institutional knowledge just fading away fast.

Speaking of institutional knowledge, the Russian Su-35 that was recently downed by not-so-friendly Russian fire.

The pilot?  He was an Su-35 test pilot, and deputy chief of the State Flight Test Center.  Not some run-of-the-mill pilot.

From the Russian social media VK.com site:  

Quote

On October 5, Akhtubinsk said goodbye to test pilot, deputy head of the GLITs Test Pilot Training Center, Major Alexei Sergeevich Belichenko. Alexey Belichenko was born in 1985 in the Belgorod region. Graduated with honors from the Krasnodar Higher Military Aviation School. 

He actively took part in the military-patriotic events of the air club “Wings of Belgorod Region” DOSAAF of Russia.. Died on September 29..