Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[TexasEd 8067]

1 hour ago, BamaATL said:

Looks like a sound plan

 

It is like Night of the Living Dead

[BamaATL 16593]

11 minutes ago, TexasEd said:

It is like Night of the Living Dead

Yeah, they probably didn't file for a copyright either.  

[Parliament 14275]

How did those guys survive?

[atomheartbevo 89762]

3 hours ago, Parliament said:

How did those guys survive?

Not very well.

[InkaUtexas 26022]

3 hours ago, Parliament said:

How did those guys survive?

You could ask them, but doubt they would hear you. 

[InkaUtexas 26022]

Looks like Ukraine fucked up some Russian airbases with assets. Lots of reports out there, no numbers of lost equipment yet. 

Damn that is a nice one! Hey Russia, here is what we think of your 3 day operation on day 601. 

 

[KYHorn 17119]

Note the Brady tweet was from 3 weeks ago:

Sounds like we finally gave them ATACMS?!

Edited October 17, 2023 by KYHorn

[Schulz2.0 28995]

 

 

 

[B00M 6433]

On 10/15/2023 at 11:34 PM, Schulz2.0 said:

Per the Kyiv Post, Russia has lost 102 tanks, 183 armored vehicles, and 2840 troops since Tuesday trying to encircle Avdiivka. Since Tuesday...

But did they retake the initiative?! 

[956 Worldwide 34740]

Almost certainly ATACMS in Luhansk and Berdyansk. 

My apologies for not being as active in this thread. For a lot of reasons, this is not a war I ever stop thinking about and I’ve been really disheartened for a while now. I’m almost white with rage that this capability was rolled out 600 days into the war and long after it could have helped the Ukrainians regain territory this summer.

[Chad Fuck 17699]

Almost certainly ATACMS in Luhansk and Berdyansk. 
My apologies for not being as active in this thread. For a lot of reasons, this is not a war I ever stop thinking about and I’ve been really disheartened for a while now. I’m almost white with rage that this capability was rolled out 600 days into the war and long after it could have helped the Ukrainians regain territory this summer.

We know that feel bruh.

[BamaATL 16593]

This is such welcome news.  With the Russian's Su 25 supply being significantly dwindled (at least 30 losses, out of maybe 100 operational) and not having safe harbor for their ground attack helicopters, they are left with extremely limited aviation ground support.  

[The Dog 44073]

more rumors this was ATAMS:

I have been waiting for months to hear this message and I believe that we have now enough evidence that the Russian helicopter base in Berdyansk received a devastating blow. This footage allegedly shows the result of the strike last night. The Pro-Russian channels such as “Fighterbomber” are also quite frank that impact(s) have been devastating and judging from this footage, which shows not a single source of fire but the entire base on fire, only prove this. The ATACMS have entered the war. Source of video: https://youtube.com/shorts/fVGwNipXCsM?si=d5FF1c4SOSlwkzpH…

[atomheartbevo 89762]

18 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

This is such welcome news.  With the Russian's Su 25 supply being significantly dwindled (at least 30 losses, out of maybe 100 operational) and not having safe harbor for their ground attack helicopters, they are left with extremely limited aviation ground support.  

Russia expends way too many of their missiles on attacking civilian infrastructure because Putin's mantra is "if I can't have it, they can't have it".

Ukraine gets missiles and destroys ships and submarines, and airfields/aircraft, because they are trying to kick Russia out.

This is huge - this means Russian close-air support and aerial reinforcements/supply will be greatly diminished, if not eliminated.

And lost in all of this is the fact that these made it through Russian anti-air defense systems.

[BamaATL 16593]

6 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Russia expends way too many of their missiles on attacking civilian infrastructure because Putin's mantra is "if I can't have it, they can't have it".

Ukraine gets missiles and destroys ships and submarines, and airfields/aircraft, because they are trying to kick Russia out.

This is huge - this means Russian close-air support and aerial reinforcements/supply will be greatly diminished, if not eliminated.

And lost in all of this is the fact that these made it through Russian anti-air defense systems.

I didn't realize this, but pre invasion estimates of main attack helicopters were

Mil Mi 24 - 328

Ka-50 - 133

 

Losses prior to today's attack are listed at 317.  Obviously, at least some of these are transport losses, but at least a good chuck are the attack variety.  In any event, the counts, presuming they are anywhere near accurate, indicate that their attack helicopter capability is severely diminished and now most liking unable to operate in air bases located within Ukraine (unless they are completed stupid - something that can't be discounted).  

[kevwun 15812]

17 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Russia expends way too many of their missiles on attacking civilian infrastructure because Putin's mantra is "if I can't have it, they can't have it".

Ukraine gets missiles and destroys ships and submarines, and airfields/aircraft, because they are trying to kick Russia out.

This is huge - this means Russian close-air support and aerial reinforcements/supply will be greatly diminished, if not eliminated.

And lost in all of this is the fact that these made it through Russian anti-air defense systems.

Power plants also can't move, which greatly increases the odds that the Russians will manage to hit them.

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

hopefully Russia doesn't escalate this conflict now that ATACMS have entered the war!

[Chad Fuck 17699]

12 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

I didn't realize this, but pre invasion estimates of main attack helicopters were

Mil Mi 24 - 328

Ka-50 - 133

 

Losses prior to today's attack are listed at 317.  Obviously, at least some of these are transport losses, but at least a good chuck are the attack variety.  In any event, the counts, presuming they are anywhere near accurate, indicate that their attack helicopter capability is severely diminished and now most liking unable to operate in air bases located within Ukraine (unless they are completed stupid - something that can't be discounted).  

What you're leaving out there is Mi-8s, which is the real workhorse for both sides.  They have made nearly 20k of those suckers and they're still in production.  Think of it as the Russian Huey.   They can hang anything on that sucker and use it for attack.  While it's great to see the dedicated attack helo numbers dwindling, when Mi-8 stocks are low, then you'll know Russia is really in trouble. 

 

[BamaATL 16593]

4 minutes ago, Chad Fuck said:

What you're leaving out there is Mi-8s, which is the real workhorse for both sides.  They have made nearly 20k of those suckers and they're still in production.  Think of it as the Russian Huey.   They can hang anything on that sucker and use it for attack.  While it's great to see the dedicated attack helo numbers dwindling, when Mi-8 stocks are low, then you'll know Russia is really in trouble. 

 

That's the hard part in determining their stocks on just about everything.  They sort of wisely made every thing with multipurpose roles in mind (or adapted them after the fact).  The other problem is most of the numbers available out there indicate pre war stocks, which includes lots of stuff in boneyard/being parted.  Sort of like the tanks, pre war they its known they had 20k in tanks, due to treaty, however, of those 20k at least 10k were in boneyard and a significant number of the remaining were in a state of disrepair.  

In a way, all of this sort of fits with the old Soviet way of playing 3 card monte with what actually works and what doesn't.  It's still an effective deterrent of sorts if you leave your enemy guessing to a degree.  

In any event, their actual capability and numbers are significantly lower than worst case estimates, and it wouldn't surprise me if today's attack resulted in at least a 5% reduction of real capability, given existing losses.  Additionally, you would at least think they have to hold back some level of force for territorial defense.  

[The Dog 44073]

[Chad Fuck 17699]

5 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

That's the hard part in determining their stocks on just about everything.  They sort of wisely made every thing with multipurpose roles in mind (or adapted them after the fact).  The other problem is most of the numbers available out there indicate pre war stocks, which includes lots of stuff in boneyard/being parted.  Sort of like the tanks, pre war they its known they had 20k in tanks, due to treaty, however, of those 20k at least 10k were in boneyard and a significant number of the remaining were in a state of disrepair.  

In a way, all of this sort of fits with the old Soviet way of playing 3 card monte with what actually works and what doesn't.  It's still an effective deterrent of sorts if you leave your enemy guessing to a degree.  

In any event, their actual capability and numbers are significantly lower than worst case estimates, and it wouldn't surprise me if today's attack resulted in at least a 5% reduction of real capability, given existing losses.  Additionally, you would at least think they have to hold back some level of force for territorial defense.  

For sure.  And not all of those Mi-8s are in Russia.  They're spread out all over the world.  Hell, WE have some:

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/42409/russian-made-mi-17-helicopter-flown-by-secretive-u-s-group-lands-in-farmers-field

 

[atomheartbevo 89762]

23 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

hopefully Russia doesn't escalate this conflict now that ATACMS have entered the war!

LOL, destroying the big-ass landing support ship and the submarine in the dry docks, as well as hitting the Kerch bridge with Western missiles, those were no big deal, but this......Russia is going to have to get serious!

14 minutes ago, Chad Fuck said:

What you're leaving out there is Mi-8s, which is the real workhorse for both sides.  They have made nearly 20k of those suckers and they're still in production.  Think of it as the Russian Huey.   They can hang anything on that sucker and use it for attack.  While it's great to see the dedicated attack helo numbers dwindling, when Mi-8 stocks are low, then you'll know Russia is really in trouble. 

True, but the Mi-8s don't do as well in contested environments, and the Ukrainians have had a steady flow of MANPADS. Those dedicated attack helicopters really helped the Mi-8s doing the resupply/reinforcement thing.

Either way, they'll still have to keep their helicopters further back.

[atomheartbevo 89762]

So Russian air defense leadership, assuming they were not immediately sacked by Putin, and given the losses in air defense systems over the past 6-8 weeks...do they move whatever air defense systems they have in reserve or covering non-vital targets up closer to the vital targets?  And risk losing those air defense systems? Or do they move their vital targets such as air assets farther back from the front?

That helicopter base in Berdyansk was just SW of Mariupol, and almost due east of Melitopol, along the coast.  Do you move the remaining helicopters?  Probably since they've been proven to be in range, but you can't move them south because of water, nor west along the coast, because you get in close to Kherson.  If you move them east along the coast, possibly (probably) past Mariupol, they are pretty much in Russia proper, and will be useless due to the range involved (depending on their payload).

When ATACMS were brought up in discussions, I never really considered that Ukraine might be able to use them to push Russian helicopters back, but here we are.

[The Dog 44073]

 

[InkaUtexas 26022]

1 hour ago, Chad Fuck said:

For sure.  And not all of those Mi-8s are in Russia.  They're spread out all over the world.  Hell, WE have some:

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/42409/russian-made-mi-17-helicopter-flown-by-secretive-u-s-group-lands-in-farmers-field

 

We use quite a few of them. DOD and State being the primary users. I was at my place in Bastrop and heard a strange helicopter. House was on the approach into Camp Swift. Sure enough, a MI-24 HIND comes over the trees. I know the sound from Honduras, Peru, Bosnia and Afghanistan. They are distinct. 

Interesting article, but one thing bothers me. The neighbor, a SF Major does know an MI-8/17? Don't believe it or he was on mushrooms. 

[Chad Fuck 17699]

12 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

We use quite a few of them. DOD and State being the primary users. I was at my place in Bastrop and heard a strange helicopter. House was on the approach into Camp Swift. Sure enough, a MI-24 HIND comes over the trees. I know the sound from Honduras, Peru, Bosnia and Afghanistan. They are distinct. 

Interesting article, but one thing bothers me. The neighbor, a SF Major does know an MI-8/17? Don't believe it or he was on mushrooms. 

I'll defer to you on that last bit.

[GopherRock 1765]

Source vetting is always necessary, but this seems like one that's good. 

[Schulz2.0 28995]

Russians getting blown up near Avdiivka.

 

[Parliament 14275]

3 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Russia expends way too many of their missiles on attacking civilian infrastructure because Putin's mantra is "if I can't have it, they can't have it".

Ukraine gets missiles and destroys ships and submarines, and airfields/aircraft, because they are trying to kick Russia out.

This is huge - this means Russian close-air support and aerial reinforcements/supply will be greatly diminished, if not eliminated.

And lost in all of this is the fact that these made it through Russian anti-air defense systems.

Does the ATACMS range push Russian helicopters out of fuel range to attack Ukraine at all?

ETA

And does the ATACMS have enough range to hit the Kertch bridge?  If so I presume the UKA will take it out?

Edited October 17, 2023 by Parliament

[AUS-97HORN 11812]

1 hour ago, GopherRock said:

Source vetting is always necessary, but this seems like one that's good. 

I legit appreciate that we didnt fucking open our big mouths to tell everyone that medium range shit was on the way.   too many fucking times we announce shit that takes 9 months to get there, where its still needed and used, but obviously thats 9 months the UKA cant get back.

This time they knocked the door down with a fucking rocket. which is awesome.

 

and yeah, regarding "confirmation" of it being ATACMS ....considering on the previous page they have the literal shell discards of the rockets, complete with US military English codes/ dates, and showing obvious explosion battle damage near them and as part of the body of the missile itself, thats really fucking hard to fake without it being really obvious. 

Example of fake shit: rocket is covered in soot and has bent metal... except in one spot where it says "MADE BY YANKEE IMPERIALISTS OCT 1996" where that wording is perfectly clean underneath and dead straight on a curved, bent surface  followed of course by DIE YANKEE SCUM.  totally NOT a fake seeing that.

Edited October 17, 2023 by AUS-97HORN

[Bevo 13591]

1 hour ago, Schulz2.0 said:

Russians getting blown up near Avdiivka.

 

yeah, I think one guy's leg was on fire.

[Pescado_Rojo 19427]

46 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Does the ATACMS range push Russian helicopters out of fuel range to attack Ukraine at all?

ETA

And does the ATACMS have enough range to hit the Kertch bridge?  If so I presume the UKA will take it out?

Going by the photo above, these are Block 1 ATACMS, so range is about 100 miles. They can't make it to the Kerch bridge from their current launch points. They can cover just about anywhere in "mainland" Ukraine, and quite a bit of the Northern half of Crimea. 

[KYHorn 17119]

 

 Equality. That's nice.

Edited October 17, 2023 by KYHorn

[Schulz2.0 28995]

 

 

[Schulz2.0 28995]

 

 

 

[Schulz2.0 28995]

 

 

 

[Schulz2.0 28995]

 

 

[Chad Fuck 17699]

22 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

 

 

Sounds like a jobs program to me. 

[brakeman 28411]

Surprise!

[AUS-97HORN 11812]

37 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

 

 

legit curious, because I know the Baltic has those crazy 1,000 year old rules about all nations having a right to use the Sea with their ships.

 

since we now have 3 (4 if you count both Nord Streams) instances of Russian sabotage...

 

whats the impact if every single Russian non-warship thats in the sea was simultaneously destroyed with anti ship missiles as a warning to stop fucking around or they will really find out. 

it seems all they fucking understand is strength, and while the con is killing maybe 200ish unfortunate russian sailors, but by doing so, literally wiping out the entire Russian entire recon/commercial fleet in the Baltic (at the same exact time) would be a hell of a warning.

followed by a fucking phone call that tells Putin we know where every single fucking Russian sub is in the ocean right now. if any of them make any move that can be seen as "getting into an attack position" we will fucking sink every fucking Russian sub in the world- do not fucking test us- we just sank your entire merchant fleet in 10 mins, we can do the same to your entire undersea fleet as well.   Or hell to really tea bag his ass, literally call him WHILE we are wiping out the merchant fleet and tell him that.

 

 

[TexasEd 8067]

3 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

We use quite a few of them. DOD and State being the primary users. I was at my place in Bastrop and heard a strange helicopter. House was on the approach into Camp Swift. Sure enough, a MI-24 HIND comes over the trees. I know the sound from Honduras, Peru, Bosnia and Afghanistan. They are distinct. 

Interesting article, but one thing bothers me. The neighbor, a SF Major does know an MI-8/17? Don't believe it or he was on mushrooms. 

I’ve mentioned I was a defense contractor for several decades.  I was supporting a live fire missile launch at Ft Bliss and we were stationed in Tactical Operations Centers (TOCs) that are big tents with Humvees loaded with equipment backed up to them.  

I had just finished a training class and I hear a helo coming and said, that’s not one of ours, ran outside and watched a HIND firing 50 cal (?) blanks at the sand dunes around us with the hot brass hitting the ground all around us.  I have one of the blanks somewhere.

 

[locodos 5387]

could be bs... but

 

[Parliament 14275]

1 hour ago, Schulz2.0 said:

 

 

 

[Schulz2.0 28995]

12 minutes ago, locodos said:

could be bs... but

 

It's legitimate.

[Schulz2.0 28995]

[Chopper 17242]

nm already posted

Edited October 17, 2023 by Chopper

[Chopper 17242]

4 hours ago, GopherRock said:

Source vetting is always necessary, but this seems like one that's good. 

Perhaps a new detail

[Brisketexan 105184]

1 minute ago, Chopper said:

Perhaps a new detail

As in "Russia is gonna be clusterfucked."  Good move.

[BamaATL 16593]

4 minutes ago, Chopper said:

Perhaps a new detail

Well, technically.....

Suborbital cluster munitions, but nonetheless true.  

[UpperWestside 6174]

Anytime I need a good reminder of what finding out looks like I can check in here and see how the Russians are doing. The IJN in WWII did less finding out than these clowns.