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[atomheartbevo 89652]

5 hours ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

question: this entire thread is basically links to tweets showing good things for UKR and bad things for Russia. Are there tweets showing Russia blowing up UKR shit/people and y'all just don't post them here? Or is there not that type of content on Twitter?

5 hours ago, Chad Fuck said:

But mainly I think Ukraine has better OpSec than Russia and plays a harder info war game.  They know it does no good to show their own folks getting blown up so they don't.  That pic of the farmer blown up on his tractor yesterday was rough though, but it has a propaganda purpose as well to release it.  I also question the Russian's ability to deliver such info.  We've seen in the past, when they have it they will release it. Case in point when those Leopards and Bradleys got blown up early in the most recent offensive.  But they released it 30 ways from 30 different angles, which just screams "we don't have much to put out there."

4 hours ago, The Dog said:

You're not seeing a lot of "good things" for Russia because even their successes - like around Bakhmut - are achieved as such a high price that there is no propaganda value in showing them. 

4 hours ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

I just seems wildly inconsistent with how they've operated in the past for them to not try and leverage online platforms to drive the narrative. They can't put cameras on their drones and upload the videos? That seems crazy to me.

It exists - as mentioned, in the combat footage subreddit.  But there's a lot less of it out there for various reasons (including successfully getting such videos online both technically and geographically(comms)) and because at times it shows the Russians paying a high cost for very little success.  If there were more "good" videos for the Russians to use (such as destroying Western systems such as Bradleys), they would have been using it.  A whole lot of Russian footage never leaves Russian social media channels though, and a whole lot of videos that Russian soldiers shoot is them bitching about their conditions and putting it on Telegram/etc. (which will eventually get scrubbed by Russian authorities).

The Ukrainians have a solid pipeline for their footage - their developers and comms systems have made it easy to funnel videos from the drone operators back up the chain.  I don't think the Russians put much effort into making sure that video from a drone makes it farther than the drone operator, and their comms have got to be spotty as fuck (hence my comment about geography above). Also, Russian drone operators may not be too keen on their superiors seeing everything they do - any failures they have probably gets them in deep shit, so just like police bodycam video here in the US, drone cameras that could make Russian drone operators look bad probably malfunctions a lot.

It's there if you want it though.

[bolverk 29668]

1 hour ago, Schulz2.0 said:

 

[Bevo 13576]

3 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

At least the Honduran equipment would be stored correctly. 

on ice?

[Gatorubet 30214]

9 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:

FYI, this thing was designed 56 years ago and they quit making them 30 years ago.   I’m not quite sure how those assholes are going to replace things like that after they go “boom “

[Pato del Muerto 52489]

6 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:

 

[atomheartbevo 89652]

18 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

FYI, this thing was designed 56 years ago and they quit making them 30 years ago.   I’m not quite sure how those assholes are going to replace things like that after they go “boom “

It's pretty wild how many Russian systems had their production runs end decades ago, and they didn't even bother keeping a skeleton line going.  Then again, we shouldn't be surprised - they were proud that they were hand-making turbine engines for tanks.

[Scheiss Meister 8407]

Russia's not going to try to replace them in kind.  They will be replaced, to the extent possible, with more modern systems.  The question is: can Russia replace them quickly enough to matter?  Hopefully not, but they've been more able to manufacture new missiles than we thought.  That's why we need to continue to provide more modern equipment to Ukraine.

[BamaATL 16593]

25 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

It's pretty wild how many Russian systems had their production runs end decades ago, and they didn't even bother keeping a skeleton line going.  Then again, we shouldn't be surprised - they were proud that they were hand-making turbine engines for tanks.

I wonder what their modern manufacturing capability really is, even under optimal circumstances (no sanctions, etc).  I really don't think it would be very impressive at all.  Conversely, if we had to queue up factories in a national defense order, we could produce at a level unfathomable to them.  It might take some time to retool, but once green-lit our production level would be insane.  Part of this is because we basically have digital instruction on just about every part needed, which is the other thing I wonder, how much of their equipment and parts would even have digital instructions for modern manufacturing; I doubt its very much.

On the total manufacturing side, in terms of capability, I think they would have the capability of something comparable to maybe New Jersey in terms of total output.  

[atomheartbevo 89652]

2 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

I wonder what their modern manufacturing capability really is, even under optimal circumstances (no sanctions, etc).  I really don't think it would be very impressive at all.  Conversely, if we had to queue up factories in a national defense order, we could produce at a level unfathomable to them.  It might take some time to retool, but once green-lit our production level would be insane.  Part of this is because we basically have digital instruction on just about every part needed, which is the other thing I wonder, how much of their equipment and parts would even have digital instructions for modern manufacturing; I doubt its very much.

On the total manufacturing side, in terms of capability, I think they would have the capability of something comparable to maybe New Jersey in terms of total output.  

For the longest time, they were making 20-30 tanks a month, although I've read they are throwing everything they can into upping the number.  They had so many they build in the 60s - 80s, and export models they built then and after, that they had slowed everything down/cut off production of the speciality stuff.  They had the benefit of relying on their nukes as their ultimate defensive weapon as well, so there wasn't an urgency.

[BamaATL 16593]

4 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

For the longest time, they were making 20-30 tanks a month, although I've read they are throwing everything they can into upping the number.  They had so many they build in the 60s - 80s, and export models they built then and after, that they had slowed everything down/cut off production of the speciality stuff.  They had the benefit of relying on their nukes as their ultimate defensive weapon as well, so there wasn't an urgency.

I get that, let me put it this way, we are a country of a bit more than double them (for the ease of math, I'm just going with double).  Now imagine we are a full scale war with little support from anyone else and all we could do was manage to make about 140 missiles a month and 30 to 40 tanks a month.  That's basically the equivalent to where they are at.  It screams of a lack of not only resources but any sort of modern manufacturing capability.  

[B00M 6415]

12 hours ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

I just seems wildly inconsistent with how they've operated in the past for them to not try and leverage online platforms to drive the narrative. They can't put cameras on their drones and upload the videos? That seems crazy to me.

Of course they do. You can easily find this shit. Go to combat footage subs on Reddit to see the back and forth. Russia is pumping out so much obvious propaganda and false videos and false claims it’s hard to take them seriously. Russia has already lost, Ukraine is winning, it’s in western interests for Russia to stop fighting, and you’re on a Texas site… are you surprised by the pro Ukrainian tilt? 

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

8 hours ago, B00M said:

Of course they do. You can easily find this shit. Go to combat footage subs on Reddit to see the back and forth. Russia is pumping out so much obvious propaganda and false videos and false claims it’s hard to take them seriously. Russia has already lost, Ukraine is winning, it’s in western interests for Russia to stop fighting, and you’re on a Texas site… are you surprised by the pro Ukrainian tilt? 

I am not on Twitter nor Reddit so this site is my window into the social media world aspect of this war, so I legitimately wasn't sure if they were pumping out content or not. 

[Laxtonto 12080]

In addition to all of that, there is a “burn me once shame on you, burn me twice shame on me” issue here as well. There has been so much blatant propaganda and repurposing of combat imagery from Russia that most pro-Russian sources are discounted heavily here. 
 

The real truth here is that because the Russian side has an extreme grip on the information dissemination of their view on the conflict at both a local and  global scale while the Ukrainian side tries hard to control the narrative or at least delay certain parts due to opsec, both sides should and are viewed with varying levels of skepticism. The key difference is that the Russian side overwhelmingly skews the results on the ground to protect their internal narrative while the Ukrainian side does it in select spots.

It’s warfare. Information asymmetry leads to tactical and/or political advantage. It is always important to be skeptical of all information regarding gains and losses, means and methods, and unit or weapon systems strengths and capabilities. 
 

That being said, it has been shown over and over in many his conflict that at this point, especially after the various purges by the Russians, the Ukrainian information sphere is infinitely more accurate than the Russian side.

[Armybrat 40832]

20 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

I am not on Twitter nor Reddit so this site is my window into the social media world aspect of this war, so I legitimately wasn't sure if they were pumping out content or not. 

Read the City-Data politics forum or any major firearms board that has a news/political forum. 
Russian propagandists are very active in those places.

[bernorange 8359]

34 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

I am not on Twitter nor Reddit so this site is my window into the social media world aspect of this war, so I legitimately wasn't sure if they were pumping out content or not. 

If you want to run down a (short) rabbit hole, I exposed a lot of this crap over a year ago while engaging in a Ukraine-Russia war discussion in another forum:  News, propaganda and confirmation bias

[atomheartbevo 89652]

48 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

That being said, it has been shown over and over in many his conflict that at this point, especially after the various purges by the Russians, the Ukrainian information sphere is infinitely more accurate than the Russian side.

I do think that some if it is that the Russians don't have as much to choose from - both from a technical/pipeline point of view, but also a content point of view - if they had footage that portrays their soldiers being heroic/competent/taking out Ukrainian or Western gear, we'd see it.  I think there is also some shame to it - a lot of Ukrainian units look like Western/NATO units - they've got modern uniforms/gear on, and look like they could be working/training alongside NATO units.  Meanwhile, a lot of Russian units look like they raided a storage depot that dates back to WWII for uniforms.

Another example - now that Abrams is in theater, if the Russians are lucky enough to disable or even destroy one, and had the footage, they'd make sure it got out there for the world to see.

Or another example - when Ukrainians take Russians prisoners, you'll see footage of them treating them humanely (even if they don't when the cameras are off). When footage leaks out of Russians with Ukrainian captives, the Russians are usually mistreating the hell out of them.  Telegram is full of this kind of stuff (Russians being horrible).

56 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

There has been so much blatant propaganda and repurposing of combat imagery from Russia that most pro-Russian sources are discounted heavily here. 

It's helped that there are some solid tools that catalog and scan film and photos, and so when the Russians put something out, the OSINT folks can have it automatically scanned and compared to previous footage, and so if the Russians are trying to re-use Ukrainian footage and portray it as their own, or repurpose footage from other theaters (Syria) or conflicts, it gets caught right away.

57 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

It’s warfare. Information asymmetry leads to tactical and/or political advantage. It is always important to be skeptical of all information regarding gains and losses, means and methods, and unit or weapon systems strengths and capabilities. 

I would toss in that the Ukrainians are pumping out their stuff through English-language (and some Polish/German/French/etc.) channels, and so it gets picked up quickly and disseminated by the English-speaking OSINT community.  The Russians put out a lot of stuff for internal consumption and never bother translating it (unless it's something Really Important like taking out a Bradley). Russians don't even bother translating their evening shows where they constantly make the case that Ukraine belongs to them and is not a real country.  Of course, the people in charge know that doesn't play well in the West, so there's no point in translating it.

It's funny though - the Russians just don't get how to truly do propaganda at scale and/or for Western consumption in a conflict of their own making, even though the tools are all there at their disposal,  And arguably they should have the most experience given their past manipulation of content put out for Western consumption (including social media, and including elections).

[atomheartbevo 89652]

2 minutes ago, Mumble Rap said:

If you want to no longer be surprised by things like increased Russian military output (they're almost out of missiles!, their reserve soldiers are spread thin!) or the complete Ukrainian counteroffensive failure (Tokmak soon!, they're building a new railroad because breakthrough soon!), you'll have to veer off this thread or mainstream media. Otherwise, you'll have to wait for the once every 20 pages or so when someone questions something or posts something contradictory and they get shot down.

It's vitally important to the Ukrainian war effort that the average American think they're kicking ass. The fewer questions about the effectiveness of our aid, the fewer complaints about sending said aid. I understand the desire to hear good news about something people are emotionally invested in, but I've always found it better to hear all sides of the story. To each their own though.

 

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

9 minutes ago, Mumble Rap said:

If this is the case, then you're very well insulated on this thread.

 

If you want to no longer be surprised by things like increased Russian military output (they're almost out of missiles!, their reserve soldiers are spread thin!) or the complete Ukrainian counteroffensive failure (Tokmak soon!, they're building a new railroad because breakthrough soon!), you'll have to veer off this thread or mainstream media. Otherwise, you'll have to wait for the once every 20 pages or so when someone questions something or posts something contradictory and they get shot down.

It's vitally important to the Ukrainian war effort that the average American think they're kicking ass. The fewer questions about the effectiveness of our aid, the fewer complaints about sending said aid. I understand the desire to hear good news about something people are emotionally invested in, but I've always found it better to hear all sides of the story. To each their own though.

 

As you're aware, you're about to be roundly ridiculed and probably crowd sourced.

But yeah, this group collectively spends a lot of time lamenting the social media-driven echo chamber effect within our society while creating what has to be one of the strongest echo chambers imaginable when it comes to this thread/war. 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

You need to come to this thread understanding it’ll have a pro-UKr slant.  If you took everything at face value, you’d expect to see the equivalent of Wehrmacht running over Poles on horseback.  It’s still informative though.  
 

important tools:

1) being your own personal 538 polling aggregator -  take all the reports of great things happening and terrible things happening and figure out how to weight and understand them collectively

2) start recognizing some posters and some outlets as cheerleading, some as hot takes, some as deeply researched and considered, some as posting generating likes/engagement. 

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

5 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

You need to come to this thread understanding it’ll have a pro-UKr slant.  If you took everything at face value, you’d expect to see the equivalent of Wehrmacht running over Poles on horseback.  It’s still informative though.  
 

important tools:

1) being your own personal 538 polling aggregator -  take all the reports of great things happening and terrible things happening and figure out how to weight and understand them collectively

2) start recognizing some posters and some outlets as cheerleading, some as hot takes, some as deeply researched and considered, some as posting generating likes/engagement. 

One other thought would be to not immediately dismiss/crowdsource any posters/opinions/thoughts that aren't 100% cheerleading. 

[MisterP 127]

3 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

One other thought would be to not immediately dismiss/crowdsource any posters/opinions/thoughts that aren't 100% cheerleading. 

I am not pro Russian, have several very close Ukrainian personal friends, total cheerleader etc. I would be more interested in hearing about ineffective offenses or Russian successes just to better fully understand the scope of what is happening. Nothing is black and white, especially with politics involved. 

Edited October 19, 2023 by MisterP

[Schulz2.0 28951]

 

 

 

[atomheartbevo 89652]

crispy or GRU or whoever the fuck you are, here's some things you keep missing:

We are over 600 days into the "Special Military Operation".  600 fucking days.  For a "Special Military Operation" in a country that is literally next-door to Russia.  Not 7,000 miles away like when the US faced Iraq in 1991 or 2003. Literally next door to Russia.

And let's say the Russians ramp up missile production, so what?  It doesn't affect the actual military outcome, because the Russian leadership prefers to use those missiles against grain silos, cafes, schools, civilian apartment buildings, streets in Ukrainian cities, etc. Why they prefer to launch many of their missiles against civilian Ukrainian targets while the Ukrainians use their missiles against military airfields, bridges, and the Russian Navy, that's up to you to do your own research.

At the very least, if the Russians were doing well, the Russian state media and its evening shows would be 100% talking about how great they are doing.  But they're not.  Those state-run (and owned) evening shows are just full of fucking misery about how unfair it is that the West sends weapons to Ukraine, and it's so much fucking whining about why won't Ukraine just admit it's not a real nation and instead join with Mother Russia. Russian state media is just full of constant fucking whining about how mean the West is (and it spills over to the UN and Russia's ambassador whining about the West there as well).

It's like the Apollo moon landings - there are idiots out there who don't believe we landed on the moon, but they never stop to consider that if we hadn't landed on the moon, the Soviets would not have shut the fuck up about it. They would have brought it up everywhere, and they would have made sure that their sphere-of-influence knew that we didn't land on the moon. Same thing applies to the war in Ukraine - if Russia was doing so well, they wouldn't be going backwards, they would be releasing footage of their advancements, and we'd see the lines on the maps moving in a positive direction for Russia.

And Russia wouldn't be relying on Iran and North Korea to supply them, while trying to recruit Serbians to fight for them.

 

[Dahobbs 17534]

17 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

As you're aware, you're about to be roundly ridiculed and probably crowd sourced.

But yeah, this group collectively spends a lot of time lamenting the social media-driven echo chamber effect within our society while creating what has to be one of the strongest echo chambers imaginable when it comes to this thread/war. 

Good god you're such a whiney poster. If you want to post something, do it. There have certainly been posts on Russian successes and Ukrainian failures in this thread (e.g., early days of counter offensive when Ukraine lost a large amount of equipment in a botched attack). 

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

Just now, atomheartbevo said:

crispy or GRU or whoever the fuck you are, here's some things you keep missing:

We are over 600 days into the "Special Military Operation".  600 fucking days.  For a "Special Military Operation" in a country that is literally next-door to Russia.  Not 7,000 miles away like when the US faced Iraq in 1991 or 2003. Literally next door to Russia.

And let's say the Russians ramp up missile production, so what?  It doesn't affect the actual military outcome, because the Russian leadership prefers to use those missiles against grain silos, cafes, schools, civilian apartment buildings, streets in Ukrainian cities, etc. Why they prefer to launch many of their missiles against civilian Ukrainian targets while the Ukrainians use their missiles against military airfields, bridges, and the Russian Navy, that's up to you to do your own research.

At the very least, if the Russians were doing well, the Russian state media and its evening shows would be 100% talking about how great they are doing.  But they're not.  Those state-run (and owned) evening shows are just full of fucking misery about how unfair it is that the West sends weapons to Ukraine, and it's so much fucking whining about why won't Ukraine just admit it's not a real nation and instead join with Mother Russia. Russian state media is just full of constant fucking whining about how mean the West is (and it spills over to the UN and Russia's ambassador whining about the West there as well).

It's like the Apollo moon landings - there are idiots out there who don't believe we landed on the moon, but they never stop to consider that if we hadn't landed on the moon, the Soviets would not have shut the fuck up about it. They would have brought it up everywhere, and they would have made sure that their sphere-of-influence knew that we didn't land on the moon. Same thing applies to the war in Ukraine - if Russia was doing so well, they wouldn't be going backwards, they would be releasing footage of their advancements, and we'd see the lines on the maps moving in a positive direction for Russia.

And Russia wouldn't be relying on Iran and North Korea to supply them, while trying to recruit Serbians to fight for them.

 

maybe if you keep saying the same things over and over and over and over and over and over and over again there won't be a single view point on this thread that doesn't align with your opinion?

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

1 minute ago, Dahobbs said:

Good god you're such a whiney poster. If you want to post something, do it. There have certainly been posts on Russian successes and Ukrainian failures in this thread (e.g., early days of counter offensive when Ukraine lost a large amount of equipment in a botched attack). 

I do makes posts questioning things. Each time, I'm shouted down as a chicken little pussy.

It's ok, I'm a big boy and can handle it.

[Dahobbs 17534]

2 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

I do makes posts questioning things. Each time, I'm shouted down as a chicken little pussy.

It's ok, I'm a big boy and can handle it.

Go find the information you say you want and post it. Don't ask others to do it for or simply imply that others are biased for not posting information that may not even be available. 

[Schulz2.0 28951]

1 minute ago, Mumble Rap said:

 

 

Last month NYT released a map showing Russia had captured more territory this year than Ukraine. 

 

You should go find it.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

2 minutes ago, Mumble Rap said:

 

 

Last month NYT released a map showing Russia had captured more territory this year than Ukraine. It wasn't much but you're wrong on the whole. It's a war of attrition. Can't wait for the posts saying that is good for Ukraine. Those are fantastic and totally in touch with reality.

 

i mean, this is propaganda itself.  you are technically correct while not being correct correct.  it said very close to 0 has changed this year.  the russian 0 is bigger than the Ukraine 0, but both round to zero.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/09/28/world/europe/russia-ukraine-war-map-front-line.html

 

Who’s Gaining Ground in Ukraine? This Year, No One.

Although both sides have launched ambitious offensives, the front line has barely shifted. After 18 months of war, a breakthrough looks more difficult than ever.

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

2 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Go find the information you say you want and post it. Don't ask others to do it for or simply imply that others are biased for not posting information that may not even be available. 

My question re: content wasn't an ask that people post Russians blowing up Ukrainians (truthfully I find it hard to stomach the footage of Ukrainians blowing up Russians). I just wasn't sure what content is flooding social media (I mainly asked the question because there have been so many people talking about all of the mis-info happening in the Israeli-Hamas war and that same complaint isn't brought up with respect to this war).

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

It is a good article though 

 

If you've not subscribed to NYT, you should.  I'll copy and paste the text though so you can read.  The formatting will be AIDS because it's bringing over some rich stuff, but otherwise you'd completely miss the very useful infographics imbedded therein.

 

Quote

Who’s Gaining Ground in Ukraine? This Year, No One.

Although both sides have launched ambitious offensives, the front line has barely shifted. After 18 months of war, a breakthrough looks more difficult than ever.

By Josh Holder Sept. 28, 2023

 

FRONTLINE

ON JAN. 1, 2023

Kyiv

UKRAINE

KHARKIV

Dnipro

River

LUHANSK

HELD BY

RUSSIA

DONETSK

ZAPORIZHZHIA

KHERSON

CRIMEA

 

Kyiv

UKRAINE

KHARKIV

Dnipro

River

LUHANSK

Bakhmut

DONETSK

ZAPORIZHZHIA

KHERSON

CRIMEA

 

Kyiv

UKRAINE

KHARKIV

Dnipro

River

LUHANSK

Robotyne

DONETSK

ZAPORIZHZHIA

KHERSON

CRIMEA

 

Kyiv

UKRAINE

KHARKIV

Dnipro

River

LUHANSK

DONETSK

ZAPORIZHZHIA

KHERSON

CRIMEA

 

 

 

 

 

The front line in Ukraine changed little last winter. Russia aimed to capture the entirety of the Donbas, but it only inched forward.Territory Russia gained since Jan. 1

Ukraine has made minimal gains in its counteroffensive. Dense Russian minefields and fortifications have made every attack extremely costly.Territory Ukraine gained since Jan. 1

Despite nine months of bloody fighting, less than 500 square miles of territory have changed hands since the start of the year. A prolonged stalemate could weaken Western support for Ukraine.Territory changed hands since Jan. 1

Both sides started the year with lofty ambitions: Russia wanted to capture the eastern Donbas region, while Ukraine aimed to split Russian forces with an attack in the south.

Neither offensive has gone to plan. The front line, after months of grueling combat and heavy casualties, remains largely unchanged.

Change in territory each month

 

20,000

square miles

Amount of territory

Russia gained

10,000

Russia’s winter offensive

captured about 100

square miles per month.

Ukraine’s counteroffensive

began, but progress has

been slow.

0

The least territory

changed hands in August

of any month so far.

Russia withdrew

from Kherson.

10,000

Russia withdrew from

northern Ukraine.

Amount of territory

Ukraine gained

20,000

Feb.

2022

March

April

May

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

Jan.

2023

Feb.

March

April

May

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Source: New York Times analysis of data from the Institute for the Study of War with American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project

 

Data as of Sept. 25.

 

The New York Times

Less territory changed hands in August than in any other month of the war, according to a New York Times analysis of data from the Institute for the Study of War. While Ukraine made small gains in the south, Russia took slightly more land overall, mostly in the northeast.

Across the front line, every mile of territory has been a grinding fight, with no repeat of the rapid breakthrough that Kyiv managed in Kharkiv in September last year, when Russia’s defenses collapsed after a surprise Ukrainian counterattack.

Russia and Ukraine have faced similar challenges this year. Both sides are fighting for positions that have remained largely entrenched for months, or even years in some parts of eastern Ukraine. Seasoned troops and commanders who were killed earlier in the war have been replaced with new recruits who often lack sufficient training.

Ukraine’s counteroffensive has struggled to push forward across the wide-open fields in the south. It is facing extensive minefields and hundreds of miles of fortifications — trenches, anti-tank ditches and concrete obstacles — that Russia built last winter to slow Ukrainian vehicles and force them into positions where they could be more easily targeted.

When both sides’ gains are added up, Russia now controls nearly 200 square miles more territory in Ukraine compared with the start of the year.

 

Since Jan. 1, Ukraine gained: 143 square miles

Russia gained: 331 square miles

Net gain: 188 square miles

 

When all the territorial changes are added together, Russia controls an additional 100 square miles of Ukraine, compared to Jan. 1, 2023.

 

For a sense of scale, that’s smaller than the borough Queens, NYC, and a third of the size of Ukraine’s capital city, Kyiv.

For scale, that’s smaller than New York City...

and smaller than Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital.

188 square

miles

188 square

miles

Net change in

territory this year

Source: New York Times analysis of data from the Institute for the Study of War with American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project

 

Data as of Sep. 25.

 

The New York Times

Rather than seeking rapid gains, the Russian military appears to be comfortable holding the territory it already controls, according to Marina Miron, a postdoctoral researcher in war studies at King’s College London. “It’s not losing anything by not moving forward,” she said.

Russia’s forces outnumber Ukraine’s nearly three to one on the battlefield, and with a larger population to replenish its ranks, Russia could see a prolonged defense as in its interests.

“The whole strategy in Ukraine is for the Russians to let the Ukrainians run against those defenses, kill as many as possible, and destroy as much Western equipment as possible,” she added.

Russia controls about 18 percent of Ukraine — a swath of land larger than Switzerland. This includes Crimea and part of eastern Ukraine, which it has occupied since 2014.

 

Occupied by Russia

before 2022 7.0%

Gained during

2022 10.9%

Gained this

year 0.08%

(Crimea and part of eastern Ukraine)

The slowdown comes with huge risks for Ukraine. If it looks unlikely to recapture large areas of the country, Western support could wane, either through lack of political will or unwillingness to donate more weapons, especially given the yearslong wait for deliveries of replacement equipment.

“Russia is trying to wait out until the West turns its back,” said Dr. Miron.

Ukraine continues to battle through Russia’s defenses in the south. Last month it successfully recaptured the village of Robotyne, and in recent days moved armored vehicles past Russia’s main anti-tank defenses near Verbove, about eight miles to the west of Robotyne.

But the clock is ticking for Ukraine’s counteroffensive to make significant territorial gains. Heavy rains are expected next month, and muddy terrain could prevent the use of heavy vehicles, such as the newly arrived U.S. Abrams tanks and the Challenger tanks supplied by Britain. “When there is mud and you have a 75-ton Challenger, it will just sink,” said Dr. Miron.

 

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

6 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

i mean, this is propaganda itself.  you are technically correct while not being correct correct.  it said very close to 0 has changed this year.  the russian 0 is bigger than the Ukraine 0, but both round to zero.

thanks for posting the article.

It says this:

Quote

When both sides’ gains are added up, Russia now controls nearly 200 square miles more territory in Ukraine compared with the start of the year.

Is there some other data point in the article that you're referencing that makes what he said propaganda?

 

[B00M 6415]

16 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

maybe if you keep saying the same things over and over and over and over and over and over and over again there won't be a single view point on this thread that doesn't align with your opinion?

What the fuck are you talking about? Russia has a 3:1 man power advantage across much of the front but the lines are static, largely because Russia spent all last winter building elaborate trenches, dragons teeth, mine fields… You tell us where the Russian success stories are. Is a nearly 30 year old-mid grade version of the ATACMS being able to freely reach every inch of russian occupied Ukraine a success? Yeah, we can find you footage of random Ukrainians dying as they work to clear trash filled Russian trenches if that’s what you want. This war is going to be an absolute fucking grind until one side loses the will to fight. Until then, we’re going to celebrate every dead Russian soldier 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

yes.  the point of the article is that there is no movement in 2023.  the "other data point" is literally the entire article.

 

i was talking to my kids the other day about lying with facts.  it's in my opinion the most important thing to know in digesting information in the 2000s.  everything you can say can be 100% truthful in order to give an intentionally wrong message.  that is what "well sourced NYT article showing russia gained more than ukr this year" -- citing this article -- would fall under.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

I don't want to belabor this point, but I'll belabor this point.  It is what many (unnamed) news networks do all the time.  It is the equivalent of saying someone earns 10 times as much as someone else last year while leaving out that they are both homeless bums and the numbers you are talking about are $10 and $1.

[atomheartbevo 89652]

12 minutes ago, MisterP said:

I am not pro Russian, have several very close Ukrainian personal friends, total cheerleader etc. I would be more interested in hearing about ineffective offenses or Russian successes just to better fully understand the scope of what is happening. Nothing is black and white, especially with politics involved. 

9 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

maybe if you keep saying the same things over and over and over and over and over and over and over again there won't be a single view point on this thread that doesn't align with your opinion?

You can disagree with anything I say and I would just say this to you, and it ties into what @BehoId, The Underminer! said about being your own 538 polling aggregator - even if I and others are not objective, these are not denied by Russia: 

Russia is not denying that it just lost aircraft in a major attack on an airfield from ATACMS (in fact they put the photos out of the ATACMS parts). Russia is not denying that Ukraine is raiding across the water into Crimea  or that Ukraine took out Russian radar stations on oil platforms in the Black Sea.  Russia is not denying that it's losing ground in SE Ukraine, or that Ukraine is penetrating its defenses.  Russia is not denying that Ukraine took out a submarine and a landing support ship in Sevastopol. Russia does not deny it lost Kharkiv or Kherson. Russia does not deny that the Kerch bridge has been hit multiple times. Russia doesn't deny that there was a batshit would-be coup led by Wagner. The list goes on and on and in fact, it's not just that the Russian government doesn't deny these things, it's also that Russian social media is full of Russian troops and Russian milbloggers bitching about these things. I don't even know how some of those milbloggers are still alive.

Furthermore, as I said, go watch Russian state TV.  Margarita Simonyan basically reports directly to Putin. Others on the evening Russian state TV shows are just one or two levels away from Putin. The Russian ambassador to the UN - he's just a level or two away from reporting to Putin as well. These people are the mouthpieces of the Russian government, and they aren't spending hours every evening talking about Ukrainian towns that Russian troops just captured or how much closer they are to taking Kyiv or running out videos of dozens of Ukrainian vehicles being taken out or troops killed.  These mouthpieces of the Russian government are fucking whining about the West, and whining about Ukraine not giving up.

Call me a cheerleader, but listen to what the Russian mouthpieces are saying on Russian state TV or in the UN, and listen to what the Russians are not denying. They make it clear that the war is not going well for them.

[B00M 6415]

8 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

thanks for posting the article.

It says this:

Is there some other data point in the article that you're referencing that makes what he said propaganda?

 

Ukraine is 233,000 square miles. 200 square miles represents 0 fucking percent... 0.09% if you want to split hairs. Presenting that as a raw number is misleading. Russia is claiming low strategic value territory anywhere they can purely to pump that number up because smooth brains are influenced by it. We’re seeing what happens right now when Russia’s current military attempts to take fortified Ukrainian positions. 
 

[KYHorn 17033]

25 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

My question re: content wasn't an ask that people post Russians blowing up Ukrainians (truthfully I find it hard to stomach the footage of Ukrainians blowing up Russians). I just wasn't sure what content is flooding social media (I mainly asked the question because there have been so many people talking about all of the mis-info happening in the Israeli-Hamas war and that same complaint isn't brought up with respect to this war).

I actually agree with your previous point about not running off everyone who has a different sentiment about the war, though they should understand that if they bombard the thread with negativity and whataboutism every day, that is not going to be taken well. 

As Behold said, you have to come here with the understanding that this thread will have a pro-Ukraine slant. However, anyone following the thread over the past year will be aware that the offensive hasn't gone as planned and has made minimal gains in the face of a stout defensive line (and issues raised by Boom above). Many experts were overly optimistic and therefore the sentiment of this thread was generally overly optimistic about the offensive. The overall sentiment of the thread remains hopeful for a number of reasons, some realistic, some still rooted in an abiding belief in the Ukrainian cause.

I think most of the regular followers here just wish the US and other allies had given more sooner to avoid the current stagnation and lament the current political hurdles to increasing aid. Yet at the same time, many believe there is still a possibility of limited breakthroughs and gains, so there is a pro-Ukrainian and hopeful slant still. But really, there just hasn't been much information out there for the past month or so. Most of the events of the past month have been a few very positive (explosive) events in favor of Ukraine. Russia has made some limited gains in some areas and the information about that has been posted, but these gains have come at quite a cost so there are a lot of videos of those costs. Ukraine's gains have reportedly come at a high cost as well (probably not nearly as high as Russia's) and that information has been posted here, though I'll grant that it hasn't been emphasized to the extent the Russian losses have, but the reasons for this go back to my previous post: consistently unreliable sources for positive Russian news, lack of a desire to post Ukrainian gore, etc. There are a few Twitter sources out there who will summarize Russian claims and they usually get posted here. It may not be the majority of the content on this thread, but it's present. 

Edited October 19, 2023 by KYHorn

[Schulz2.0 28951]

 

 

[Bevo 13576]

34 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

i mean, this is propaganda itself.  you are technically correct while not being correct correct.  it said very close to 0 has changed this year.  the russian 0 is bigger than the Ukraine 0, but both round to zero.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/09/28/world/europe/russia-ukraine-war-map-front-line.html

 

Who’s Gaining Ground in Ukraine? This Year, No One.

Although both sides have launched ambitious offensives, the front line has barely shifted. After 18 months of war, a breakthrough looks more difficult than ever.

 

It is actually a pretty good article, although it doesn't format worth a damn when I tried to copy and paste.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/09/28/world/europe/russia-ukraine-war-map-front-line.html

[AUS-97HORN 11757]

1 hour ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

I do makes posts questioning things. Each time, I'm shouted down as a chicken little pussy.

It's ok, I'm a big boy and can handle it.

no you cant, because every single time someone on this thread questions you on it, you go find shit from the internet that partially proves your point, but might be weeks/months old.

stop playing the fucking victim here.  You have the power to stop being fucking blasted on here, and still keep the anti- Ukraine view -  which actually is a something this thread could use.

 

But you literally cry about getting blasted every single time you paste something thats clearly got a "not really verifiable but definatly anti-UKr/ pro Russian" slant to it, or as in the case of the NYT article you have now made 3-4 posts about in less than an hour, where you were shown how math works regarding a miniscule "territory gain"  you now switched to the premise of:

"if only they told us that before I wouldnt have thought it was propaganda"

 

you keep moving the fucking goal posts every single time one your posts (or brilliant ideas) get pointed out as having a major flaw or missing a critical point

 

 

14 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

Good post. I hate to go back to my analogy of whatever ESPN's 'gametracker' gimmick is that predicts who wins based on events happening within a game, but I feel like several important things have happened recently that have made it less likely UKR wins this war (if we're defining that as them taking back all of their pre-2014 lands). 

Once Russia realized it wasn't going to take Ukraine in 3 days it's bet has always been it can outlast Western support. That has always seemed like a decent bet to me, and given things happening outside of UKR, I worry things are trending in the wrong direction.

the bolded part is literally the first rational, reasonable post on the subject you have made and its more than likely within 95% of the actual truth here.

 

in short, more posts like the 2nd one and less like the 10 before it and you can then stop whining about being beaten down by the mean Pro UKr's on here.

[atomheartbevo 89652]

1 hour ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

My question re: content wasn't an ask that people post Russians blowing up Ukrainians (truthfully I find it hard to stomach the footage of Ukrainians blowing up Russians). I just wasn't sure what content is flooding social media (I mainly asked the question because there have been so many people talking about all of the mis-info happening in the Israeli-Hamas war and that same complaint isn't brought up with respect to this war).

What gets posted in this thread is an extremely tiny fraction of what is out there.  Way less than 1%, easily. We see highlights that are dramatic or maybe amusing in some way (when set to Yakety Sax in our heads), and we mostly refrain from the really bad stuff. Hell, I'm old enough to remember fuzzy VHS copies of Faces of Death, and later on Ogrish and Live Leaks (and Ogrish/Live Leaks are alive and well spiritually as subreddits). And there's shit that we would not have imagined on Ogrish or Live Leaks (although I'm sure similar existed, but I didn't see it), like the Russians castrating some Ukrainian soldiers while they were still alive. 

And there is plenty of footage of Russians blowing up Ukrainians. It's there on the rawcombatfootage and some of the other subreddits if you want it. We can point you to specific subreddits if you want (I'm not saying you want that, I'm just answering your question).

Like others have said, many of us Americans identify with Ukrainians and their fight for freedom, and so we just don't want to post that stuff - that's not the team we root for.  To put it another way though, given the nature of this board, I wouldn't go posting an OU highlights reel.  Unless it was the 77-0 aggy game - that will never get old (and I would love to have it in HD), but in general I wouldn't go posting an OU highlights video.

I said there wasn't as much Russian content possibly for technical reasons, and in thinking about it, that's not the whole story but I think it plays a big role - Ukrainians are fighting within Ukraine, and it's absolutely easier for them to get videos out and on the internet. That's the nature of many being just a short distance from having cell phone service, and in a few minutes, the video is heading up to some group who is tagging and releasing it (and/or translating it for Western audience). I do think Ukrainian comms are far better, and I think they have a better chain-of-command structure/infrastructure so they can move videos and photos up the chain and out into the world easier.  Many Russian troops probably don't have easy access to a rear area where they can hop online and start sending video out into the world.

Another aspect is chain-of-command. I see a lot of Russian trenches that look like absolute filth, as well as poorly maintained equipment and vehicles.  That makes me think many of them have no solid chain-of-command or whatever they have is barely functioning.  Basically, enough to say "go to this area, hold this line" and that's it. That probably means they aren't passing a lot of video/photo/etc. up the chain. I constantly see Ukrainian troops that have radio headsets, but rarely see that with Russians, so the signs of a lack of solid comms are there. And tying into that, a lot of Russians maybe without functioning electricity to charge their devices.

Once you get past any technical issues of getting the footage out and onto the internet, the last aspect is that the Russian government is constantly censoring the fuck out of its social media platforms over fears of people moving their bitching from Telegram to the streets, and not wanting the reality of the war to be seen by the Russian public.  Because of their automated efforts and the fears of videos showing a really negative aspect, they automatically scoop up and remove a lot of videos that otherwise would make it out onto the internet at large.  If you told me that 1-5% of Russian combat footage actually makes it into the internet, I'd say that was probably accurate.

TLDR: The footage you are talking about does exist, but for many of us, it's not our team so we don't bother posting their highlight reels.  As well as the Russians possibly don't have the pipeline to get the footage out into the world easily, and/or Russian censors have what footage makes it to social media removed from Russian networks before somebody in the West gets a chance to archive and share it.

Edited October 19, 2023 by atomheartbevo

[atomheartbevo 89652]

@DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt there is another aspect that I've seen debated about Russian combat footage.  Julia Davis brought it up either last year or earlier this year - she runs the Russian Media Monitor YouTube channel, and she was born in Soviet Ukraine and speaks Russian, Ukrainian and English.  She's responsible for a lot of the translated clips from Russian state media that we post.

She's shown with various Russian state media clips, how Putin and the Russian government/media have tried to portray this as a civil matter between siblings, that Ukrainians are just Russians from another mother. She thinks the Russians refrain from pushing a lot of combat footage of Russians killing Ukrainians, because it works against the narrative they are trying to create and shape. They will happily post the destruction of a Western vehicle (such as a tank or IFV) because "that's NATO", but if they go on the evening talk shows and talk about how Ukrainians are their brothers and sisters, and then show Russian troops killing Ukrainians, that wrecks the narrative. It also works against the idea that they were welcomed into Ukraine (although Russian state TV now admits that they are not that welcome there).

[MillerEP 30454]

 

[Orange&White 5522]

In my mind, the US Navy Subs have already started sinking any russian sub/ship that even looks like it might lay mines, but it is so secret that we don't hear about.

Don't try to use logic or facts to change my mind. It's my dream so it is as big as I want it to be.

[MillerEP 30454]

I see Russian stuff all the time, but I mostly don't post it because it is either obvious propaganda/made-up, on Telegram not on twitter, or it's depressing stuff that doesn't affect the tactical situation like the indiscriminate bombing of civilians' homes like this:

 

 

[MillerEP 30454]

 

^Hopefully, more and more Israelis start to piece together Russia's involvement like this Likud party member

[Captainant 27655]

1 hour ago, Orange&White said:

In my mind, the US Navy Subs have already started sinking any russian sub/ship that even looks like it might lay mines, but it is so secret that we don't hear about.

Don't try to use logic or facts to change my mind. It's my dream so it is as big as I want it to be.

son, you never go full Clancy.

[MillerEP 30454]

^Now that's actually pretty impressive

^Hit 3000 confirmed

[Ten Bears 2481]

2 hours ago, MillerEP said:

^Now that's actually pretty impressive

^Hit 3000 confirmed

Was that an Orc that shot out of that second culvert like a cannon?