Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[Schulz2.0 28960]

2 minutes ago, Chad Fuck said:

I just never get tired of watching Russian shit get blow the fuck up.

 

[Chad Fuck 17685]

Anyone else notice how muddy that ground looks in recent vids?  

[MillerEP 30491]

 

[Schulz2.0 28960]

 

 

[Handcruser 2805]

Our preppers, who supposedly prepared for being off the grid and were going to fight any invaders, were melting down over not being able to eat at Chilis or get a haircut at Supercuts.
You just have to remind yourself that the Russians were stealing toilets and washing machines.

Because all that shit was stupid.

[BamaATL 16593]

Yahoo news (yeah, not exactly a credit professional journalism) is reporting per a source that Russia has deployed all its available reserves.  They are pointing to that as being the reason the Russians can't dislodge the troops that have crossed the river.  Additionally, they are claiming that Russians are preparing charges on key bridges as they intend on falling back from their remain positions in Kherson.   

Not sure any of this is accurate, but a fall back in Kheson would be a major development in the positive.  

[atomheartbevo 89730]

35 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Yahoo news (yeah, not exactly a credit professional journalism) is reporting per a source that Russia has deployed all its available reserves.  They are pointing to that as being the reason the Russians can't dislodge the troops that have crossed the river.  Additionally, they are claiming that Russians are preparing charges on key bridges as they intend on falling back from their remain positions in Kherson.   

Not sure any of this is accurate, but a fall back in Kheson would be a major development in the positive.  

It would explain why they can't dislodge those forces that have crossed - most of what I've read is that it's only a battalion or two that are across and setting everything up, and that might be under 500 Ukrainian soldiers depending on the type of battalions involved.  Of course, those battalions would have artillery support, and the Russians don't have localized air superiority over that area, which makes things worse for any Russians counterattacking. 

[InkaUtexas 25987]

37 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Yahoo news (yeah, not exactly a credit professional journalism) is reporting per a source that Russia has deployed all its available reserves.  They are pointing to that as being the reason the Russians can't dislodge the troops that have crossed the river.  Additionally, they are claiming that Russians are preparing charges on key bridges as they intend on falling back from their remain positions in Kherson.   

Not sure any of this is accurate, but a fall back in Kheson would be a major development in the positive.  

I posted earlier. stalemate in the north, move SE across the river and exploit their reserves. If UA got tanks across this could get fun. The problem will be winter messing up river crossings. 

 

[texastough 1129]

7 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

I posted earlier. stalemate in the north, move SE across the river and exploit their reserves. If UA got tanks across this could get fun. The problem will be winter messing up river crossings. 

 

Typically the lowest flows on the Dnipro are in the winter

[InkaUtexas 25987]

28 minutes ago, texastough said:

Typically the lowest flows on the Dnipro are in the winter

 Yes, but armor does not like to cross over ice until fully formed. So they have to hold. Rough position. 

[BamaATL 16593]

1 minute ago, InkaUtexas said:

 Yes, but armor does not like to cross over ice until fully formed. So they have to hold. Rough position. 

I've been trying to figure out how far down the river is post the dam explosion, if it's considerably lower, perhaps that makes the task easier.  We know they have moved some armor across already.

[YGIFS 19452]

5 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

 Yes, but armor does not like to cross over ice until fully formed. So they have to hold. Rough position. 

complete aside, but my daughter's school Veteran's Day assembly is tomorrow and she gets to show her grandpa and my grandpa's photos and bios for the video deal.  Both U.S. Navy PO3's.  My grandfather and one uncle having served in the North Atlantic.  They regaled me stories of ice and warfare. 

For almost all of humanity, ice wasn't really a factor in warfare.  Sure we fought in cold places with frozen water, but everybody was just on foot.  Sure, Igor son of Lothar would fall thru with his club but no big deal---lots more guys behind him.  The we tamed some horses and some of them fell through so everybody thought, "Fuck it, let's hang back or go around on dry land.  Or let's just eat this horse, I'm fucking freezing."  But mechanized warfare comes along in the last 1% of human warfare.  And it's way too fucking heavy for ice.  But you can't just leave it to sit and freeze over either, far too valuable and essential to the front.  But a lotta armor sank to the bottom of a lot of rivers and lakes over the last 100+ years.  There's fascinating documentaries about the shit at the bottom of a lot of European and Asiatic bodies of water.  And they ain't boats.  Which brings me to surface warfare in WWII.  The old men tell me to remember it wasn't just armor and men negotiating the ice.  It was littoral ships.  Whole new ballgame.  Rowboats and sailboats for centuries saw the ice and also said, "Meh, fuck it.  We'll wait back here." 

Once steam power and diesel and everything else comes along, it's "Fuck it, break through it and get into the fight."  One night he's the bow during the smoking light.  Crashing glass sounds startle everyone on deck.  Everybody was running quiet on all sides until the a very thin, invisible in the night of a new moon, layer of ice was cracked by a Kriegsmarine vessel.  "Bridge!  U-boat contact port side!"  Thing got outta there in a fucking hurry.  Falling through the ice will get you killed.  Coming up through it will get you noticed.  And then killed.  Reminded me of Brad Pitt in "Inglorious Basterds" about the first rule of fighting in a basement is you're fighting in a fucking basement.  Ice is not all that dissimilar.  We've been fighting each other from ice-covered trenches for millennia.  But moving our new shiny machines across that shit can be a recipe for disaster if one is not paying attention. 

In ten year's time, we'll be taking summertime SCUBA trips in Ukrainian rivers to dive around mangled Russian armor at the bottom.  Where Putin's dreams went to die.  

[956 Worldwide 34715]

20 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

 Yes, but armor does not like to cross over ice until fully formed. So they have to hold. Rough position. 

It is a real open question whether that ice will ever get formed enough for armor.  More likely not. The winters in that part of the world have changed and you’d need a lot of ice. 

During the siege of Leningrad there was an ice road across Lake Ladoga, they sent trucks but not armor that I am aware of. 

[InkaUtexas 25987]

15 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

It is a real open question whether that ice will ever get formed enough for armor.  More likely not. The winters in that part of the world have changed and you’d need a lot of ice. 

During the siege of Leningrad there was an ice road across Lake Ladoga, they sent trucks but not armor that I am aware of. 

Yes they did, also in Stalingrad's encirclement. But quite a few FAFO and fell through. Not a lot of tanks, though there were some, were built in Leningrad. 900 Days is a good book about the siege. 

Trucks had a highway for sure. 

[InkaUtexas 25987]

43 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

I've been trying to figure out how far down the river is post the dam explosion, if it's considerably lower, perhaps that makes the task easier.  We know they have moved some armor across already.

And the Germans gave them a lot of bridge equipment. Hmmmm... M-1s, going over German Bridges to fuck up Russians. Patton is somewhere needing a cold shower. 

[BamaATL 16593]

38 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

And the Germans gave them a lot of bridge equipment. Hmmmm... M-1s, going over German Bridges to fuck up Russians. Patton is somewhere needing a cold shower. 

Plus we have them M1 Abrams mine clearing tanks.  Fingers crossed.  

[YGIFS 19452]

And that Ice Mine inventor's name?  You guessed it.

Frank Vonnegut! 

[Chopper 17238]

2 hours ago, BamaATL said:

Yahoo news (yeah, not exactly a credit professional journalism) is reporting per a source that Russia has deployed all its available reserves.  They are pointing to that as being the reason the Russians can't dislodge the troops that have crossed the river.  Additionally, they are claiming that Russians are preparing charges on key bridges as they intend on falling back from their remain positions in Kherson.   

Not sure any of this is accurate, but a fall back in Kheson would be a major development in the positive.  

I saw that article. It was a reprint of an article that ran in nv.ua New Voice of Ukraine, which I'm not familiar with but the site looks credible https://english.nv.ua/nation/russia-deployed-all-available-reserves-military-expert-says-50367158.html It jibes with what the Daily Telegraph reported earlier today - that Russia has amassed 40,000 reserves to go to the front. The article doesn't give a sense of how Ukraine knows Russia is currently out of reserves. But the absurdity of sending an addt'l. 40k reserves to the front is noted and discussed.
 

Quote

 

The Russian military has committed all available reserves to the frontlines in Ukraine, Ukrainian Armed Forces reserve Colonel and military expert Roman Svitan said in an interview with NV Radio on Nov. 8.

 “The Russians have deployed all of their reserves,” said Svitan.

“Furthermore, they have done so in areas like Avdiivka, Vuhledar, Robotyno, Luhansk, and, of course, Bakhmut. In other words, their reserves are now fully engaged.”

Thereby, according to Svitan, Moscow is limited in how it can respond to Ukriane’s growing presence on the left bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast.

He added that transferring troops from combat to other directions results in a loss of at least half their combat capability.

“They need to be replenished and rested...; if a military unit is moved from one combat area to another, it only exacerbates the problem,” the expert said.

“Given that the Russians don't have any reserves left, this is the only operation they can undertake. Again, this move takes a significant amount of time.”

He mentioned that the frontlines' locations are particularly inconvenient for the redeployment of Russian troops because there are nearly no roads running parallel to the front at a depth of 40-50 kilometers, beyond the range of Ukrainian artillery.

On Nov. 7, Ukrainian intelligence reported that Russians were rigging critical infrastructure in the occupied areas of Kherson Oblast with explosives, suggesting the invaders are planning for a potential retreat.

 

 

[BamaATL 16593]

I also read a report the other day, I believe it was based on uk Intel, that Russians troop recruitment is more or less stagnant compared to losses.  Something to the effect of 20k Kia/wia per month against a similar number of shadow conscripts.  I could be wrong, but I believe that the conscripted number, shadow or otherwise, is down pretty significantly, which leads me to draw a couple of conclusions; assuming of course that this info is correct.

1.  They are running out meat to send, and what they do send can't possibly be very good.

2.  Putin is holding out against conscripting until after his election, despite the fact that his election is all but assured.  That assumes he can afford to conscript afterwards, he may feel that doing so is untenable either way.  

3.  In any event, all resources, including human, are finite.  The math says that if he really wants to push it, obviously he in theory has significantly more people to draw from.  The reality may be far more dire for him in this regard.  

4.  If we are lucky, the Russians have reached a human resource tipping point, and right now that's what these numbers would indicate.  

 

Finally, what happens the next week or so in Congress is a big deal.  I know there are shadow ways to finance more aid to Ukraine, but I think that opens a can of worms no one wants to go down. It isn't so much the money (although that is admittedly huge), it is the signal that is sent to the Kremlin.  If we earmark $60 billion to Ukraine, that essentially matches Russia's entire defense budget, and anything that our NATO partners kick in at that point is just sauce for the goose.  The message to the Kremlin is a pretty big loud and clear give it up, you aren't going to win.  I think it's pretty clear the Russians are worried about this prospect, hence the propaganda campaign in the last week or so.  

[Chopper 17238]

4 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Putin is holding out against conscripting until after his election, despite the fact that his election is all but assured. 

This came up a while back too so I thought I'd add - shenanigans at the voting polls aren't as easy as typing in a new number in Moscow. There are people and agencies all across Russia that have to get paid in order to boost vote totals for Putin. Ideally team Putin wants the final numbers to be closer to reality because the wider the gulf between the desired result and the dictated one, the less credibility and more awkwardness it will carry, and the more rubles will have to be paid across the country.

[atomheartbevo 89730]

2 hours ago, BamaATL said:

2.  Putin is holding out against conscripting until after his election, despite the fact that his election is all but assured.  That assumes he can afford to conscript afterwards, he may feel that doing so is untenable either way.  

3.  In any event, all resources, including human, are finite.  The math says that if he really wants to push it, obviously he in theory has significantly more people to draw from.  The reality may be far more dire for him in this regard.  

What he has right now is poorly trained, poorly led, poorly disciplined, and poorly motivated and that will not change, because if he knew how, it would have changed in the last 600 days. It's only going to get worse, and the troops they are shadow-conscripting have got to have even worse morale and motivation problems, because they know the only reason they got called up was because things are going badly.

This is where breaking up Wagner or grinding it into nothing hurts, because Wagner was the kind of fighting force that Putin could rely on to do tough jobs. All those vaunted Spetsnaz and Airborne units that they had early in the war have all been pissed away as well.

2 hours ago, BamaATL said:

4.  If we are lucky, the Russians have reached a human resource tipping point, and right now that's what these numbers would indicate.  

I think he could still possibly call up more - there's got to be some minorities/poors left in the rural areas, but training, equipping, and transporting are still gonna be a problem, which brings up the discussion of does it matter if he could call up more conscripts if he can't get them into the fight? What if the tipping point is logistics or does it matter what the tipping point is, as long as there is one?

And if he could call up thousands more, he's going to need more barrier troops. I would even guess that a chunk of his best-trained/equipped troops are currently acting as pseudo-barrier troops, with orders to keep the meat on the front line, or they'll replace the meat.

With that said, I think there's a possibility that the tipping point has been reached.  Putin should have been throwing everything at that beachhead(s) on the river.  It's not a fucking video game where some kid thinks they have a cool strategy of allowing the enemy to cross en masse and then they're gonna Zerg-rush them with reserves and push them into the water.  Normandy out front shoulda told them that - the Germans had lost local air superiority over the English Channel and several miles inland past the beaches, and while their fortifications were fucking amazing and well-layered, it spread out German troops, tied them down to locations, and then the Germans had issues getting reserves into the fight until after beachheads were established.

With modern (very mobile) air defense (MANPAD or truck-mounted) and long-range artillery/counter-battery fire, including HIMARS with cluster munitions, the Ukrainians could easily create a fairly large defensive bubble around any beachheads that could keep Russian close-air-support and infantry back from directly contesting landings.  And if the Russians had been contesting those landings, they would have been releasing footage of it, but it's been days or even a week since that really ramped up.  And making this situation worse, is that Russian senior leaders don't seem to be anywhere near the frontlines so when things happen, they probably are the last to know.  The Russian command structure is poorly suited to this kind of stuff.

 

Edited November 10, 2023 by atomheartbevo

[atomheartbevo 89730]

 

1 hour ago, Chopper said:

This came up a while back too so I thought I'd add - shenanigans at the voting polls aren't as easy as typing in a new number in Moscow. There are people and agencies all across Russia that have to get paid in order to boost vote totals for Putin. Ideally team Putin wants the final numbers to be closer to reality because the wider the gulf between the desired result and the dictated one, the less credibility and more awkwardness it will carry, and the more rubles will have to be paid across the country.

He also doesn't want people protesting, or trying to take matters into their own hands and taking ballot boxes or whatever and counting the ballots themselves - while the Russian government tries to keep a tight grip on Russian internet/social media, stuff slips through all the time.  it's how the "Killed in Ukraine" and other OSINT folks are mining the Russian social media channels, because they can nab stuff before it gets pulled offline. Putin doesn't need a bunch of youth being pissed off, voting against him, taking ballot boxes and revealing the contents on Telegram or VK or whatever.

[KYHorn 17076]

 

Ukrainian defense intelligence confirmed a night attack on Russian landing ships in Crimea. Two ships of the 11770 project "Serna" were reportedly under strikes.

Glory to Ukrainian Defenders! 

According to the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, this is the result of a night operation on the territory of the temporarily occupied peninsula. The vessels carried crew and armored vehicles, in particular BTR-82s.

▪️ Small landing craft of the Serna class were actively used by Russia during the occupation of Zmiinyi (Snake) Island or the transfer of military equipment and troops.
Moreover, the Russians deployed Tor-M2 surface-to-air missile systems on board the boats.

▪️ The Serna-class small landing craft have high speed, can hold up to 45 tons of cargo and 92 armed paratroopers. The occupiers use these boats for landing advanced groups of marines or evacuation. Also such boats with SAMs on board served for Russians as cover for the Black Sea Fleet ships on raids.
 

 

Edited November 10, 2023 by KYHorn

[KYHorn 17076]

Mapping info

this makes me nuts..
we know that 
russians are saying .....
ukraine has over 500 troops on the ground
and attack helo over the area
reports of road P2206 is cut
russians are saying they are pulling back
they have no artillery or armor to stop ukr.
we have FIRMs and other data showing that 6kn south along the river, 4km south, and 2-3 km to the north along the river.....

we have seen armor and hmmwvs in the area, verified!!!

but this is what some are reporting this morning.... REALLY??????

Edited November 10, 2023 by KYHorn

[Viper 12109]

2 hours ago, KYHorn said:

 

Ukrainian defense intelligence confirmed a night attack on Russian landing ships in Crimea. Two ships of the 11770 project "Serna" were reportedly under strikes.

Glory to Ukrainian Defenders! 

According to the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, this is the result of a night operation on the territory of the temporarily occupied peninsula. The vessels carried crew and armored vehicles, in particular BTR-82s.

▪️ Small landing craft of the Serna class were actively used by Russia during the occupation of Zmiinyi (Snake) Island or the transfer of military equipment and troops.
Moreover, the Russians deployed Tor-M2 surface-to-air missile systems on board the boats.

▪️ The Serna-class small landing craft have high speed, can hold up to 45 tons of cargo and 92 armed paratroopers. The occupiers use these boats for landing advanced groups of marines or evacuation. Also such boats with SAMs on board served for Russians as cover for the Black Sea Fleet ships on raids.
 

 

More background of the kazak language thing

A handful of folks have asked why this is notable. After all, a Kazakh president speaking Kazakh shouldn't be surprising. And that's precisely the point: while it shouldn't be a surprise, the Russian delegation fully expected him to speak Russian. Normally that's what's happens: leaders of former Soviet states speak Russian with their Russian counterparts. Both as a matter of deference, practicality but also as a remnant of the Soviet past and the behavior expected by a colonial master of a presumed satellite state. It is in this context -- and especially in light of the constant drumbeat of Russian politicians making territorial claims on Kazakhstan -- Tokayev choosing to open in Kazakh is a power move and sends a clear signal to the Kremlin.

 

[atomheartbevo 89730]

Today I learned over a dozen NATO nations train their fighter pilots here in Texas, and have been for over 40 years.

 

 

[Brisketexan 105155]

^^^^

Lieutenant Jade.....how YOU doin'?

[956 Worldwide 34715]

Holy shit this is wild. This is some serious forward-leaning nuclear signaling:
 

 

It’s a fairly open secret but almost never acknowledged that we have a nuke-sharing agreement with key Allies.  Today the head of Dutch Air Combat Command posted this image of an F-35 armed with practice B-61 nuclear gravity bombs and a challenge coin referencing the deterrence mission. What this tweet really says: The Dutch Air Force is ready to deliver American nukes with their F-35s.

 

This tweet was written for a few dozen people that work for the Russian MoD. 

[956 Worldwide 34715]

Also today: Sixth gen deterrence takes fligh:

 

[B00M 6419]

[MissingInAction 25106]

[Gatorubet 30246]

I ran across an after -conflict study by the US military of tank encounters in the Korean War last night.   It was Russian supplied T– 34/85s versus Sherman M1A3 Easy 8s (and some Pershings with the 90 mm cannon).    This was five years post WWII, but using the same basic kit. 

The trusty Sherman had a 2-1 kill advantage over the vaunted T-34….and the Pershings had a 10-1 advantage.    The best they make has never been as good as our stuff. 

[PTINS 3472]

1 hour ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Also today: Sixth gen deterrence takes fligh:

 

[Parliament 14260]

36 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

 The best they make has never been as good as our stuff. 

Even true for Vodka.

[MissingInAction 25106]

Polish vodka is the best.

[Armybrat 40851]

16 hours ago, Handcruser said:

Because all that shit was stupid.

And drove up ammo prices.

Dumb sumbitches.

[Schulz2.0 28960]

 

 

 

 

[Schulz2.0 28960]

 

 

 

[BamaATL 16593]

 

[InkaUtexas 25987]

4 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Today I learned over a dozen NATO nations train their fighter pilots here in Texas, and have been for over 40 years.

 

 

Not just NATO. We train people from all over the place. Randolph is a big training hub. A lot of them go to English school at Lackland to ensure they are ready. 

[InkaUtexas 25987]

4 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

^^^^

Lieutenant Jade.....how YOU doin'?

Yeah, I would light up her afterburner. But fuck the dude at around the 30 second mark with the horns down. 

[Macanudo 12989]

12 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Not just NATO. We train people from all over the place. Randolph is a big training hub. A lot of them go to English school at Lackland to ensure they are ready. 

Seriously guys, this is all part of the New World Order and the UN taking over the US.   Didn't you know that?  

[BamaATL 16593]

1 minute ago, Macanudo said:

Seriously guys, this is all part of the New World Order and the UN taking over the US.   Didn't you know that?  

Sorry, I was never really a huge Ministry fan.  

[InkaUtexas 25987]

2 minutes ago, Macanudo said:

Seriously guys, this is all part of the New World Order and the UN taking over the US.   Didn't you know that?  

 

[CHIEF 5094]

4 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Today I learned over a dozen NATO nations train their fighter pilots here in Texas, and have been for over 40 years.

 

 

Those bastards run the canyons on or deer lease everyday, all day during sunny weather. They are low enough and close enough that you can see the markings on the T-38s. The deer are used to it though. They seldom look up, but it can be loud as fuck. We sometimes shoot the bird at them as they fly by and you won't see them for a few hours. I guess they don't realize the blind is occupied.

CHIEF

[RPM 26322]

4 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Today I learned over a dozen NATO nations train their fighter pilots here in Texas, and have been for over 40 years.

 

 

They fly over my house almost daily. The T-6 guys are usually freakin low. Kinda cool to watch them on Flightradar24.

[BamaATL 16593]

Yikes

 

[InkaUtexas 25987]

Love the Irish styled music! 

Now imagine if Ukraine has more rounds and could fire volleys like we can. 

 

[Armybrat 40851]

1 hour ago, InkaUtexas said:

But fuck the dude at around the 30 second mark with the horns down. 

Must be a Hungarian asshole.

[Pescado_Rojo 19423]

16 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Love the Irish styled music! 

Now imagine if Ukraine has more rounds and could fire volleys like we can. 

 

Ukranian Dropkick Murphys cover band.