Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[B00M 6416]

This combination of ice and fire at Novatek is hard for me to wrap my head around. Russia looks like hell on earth

 

[Schulz2.0 28951]

14 minutes ago, B00M said:

This combination of ice and fire at Novatek is hard for me to wrap my head around. Russia looks like hell on earth

 

Once it gets cold enough, water freezes really quickly on cold metal. 

[Macanudo 12978]

25 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

but in this instance the Donetsk market false-flag thing has a small audience - Donetsk residents who consider themselves Russian.  

I disagree.  There is a much larger audience...   The Russian population.   Putin doesn't give a shit about people in Donetsk.   They've been living in a war zone for too long to be fooled into thinking the Ukrainians targeted the market.

[Pato del Muerto 52497]

 

wonder how this one will end

[gsoda3 3260]

On 1/19/2024 at 8:46 AM, Viper said:

Wondering how accurate these subtitles are. His best bet is to surrender to Ukraine

 

 

 

 

it's accurate.  you can tell the translation was done by someone fluent in both mandarin and english. 

[Parliament 14258]

On 1/5/2024 at 5:05 PM, Mrs Whiggins said:

  Hide contents

1 hour ago, B00M said:

Russia looks like hell on earth

 

(It’s Hell on Earth.)

1 hour ago, Schulz2.0 said:

Once it gets cold enough, water freezes really quickly on cold metal. 

ERCOT, is that you?

[Schulz2.0 28951]

 

 

[Chad Fuck 17681]

2 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

 

 

No mincing words there.  Good.

[Schulz2.0 28951]

[statsman 5468]

19 hours ago, bolverk said:

We now have a floor on the number of confirmed dead Russian soldiers since the start of the war special military operation instead of guesstimates.

https://kyivindependent.com/mediazona-confirms-identities-of-over-42-000-russian-soldiers-killed-in-ukraine/

I can believe this. 
 
I can also believe 20k dead Russian prisoners on top of this. 
 
I can also believe well over 20k conscripts from Russian held areas of Ukraine. 
 
I can also believe Ukrainian POWs also conscripted and put in the front of meat wave charges. 
 
Russians are complete bastards. 

[choripan 790]

1 hour ago, Schulz2.0 said:

Once it gets cold enough, water freezes really quickly on cold metal. 

[atomheartbevo 89661]

1 hour ago, Macanudo said:

I disagree.  There is a much larger audience...   The Russian population.   Putin doesn't give a shit about people in Donetsk.   They've been living in a war zone for too long to be fooled into thinking the Ukrainians targeted the market.

Probably, but I doubt the people in Russia proper give a shit about Donetsk (and many privately wonder if it's worth actual Russians dying for). if he's trying to make another "quiet" mobilization and avoiding Moscow/St. Petersburg/etc., there's still plenty of people they can nab in Donetsk for the meat wave.

 

[bolverk 29671]

32 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

 

Tweet #1: Two things. a) If you're a grunt in Russia, your life has almost no meaning. You dare question a commander? You risk death. b) How the fuck can a plain piece of paper with words typed on it count as a valid record of anything? Anyone could've typed that shit on there. (edit: Their security must be shit, and it's no wonder that partisans are getting around.)

Tweet #2: It's about fucking time, Turkey. Since Erdogan gave his blessing, I assume this is merely a formality. Also, when can we expect Hungary to follow suit?

Edited January 22 by bolverk

[atomheartbevo 89661]

24 minutes ago, statsman said:

I can believe this. 
 
I can also believe 20k dead Russian prisoners on top of this. 
 
I can also believe well over 20k conscripts from Russian held areas of Ukraine. 
 
I can also believe Ukrainian POWs also conscripted and put in the front of meat wave charges. 
 
Russians are complete bastards. 

Absolutely, and those confirmed dead Russians - those are just the death notices/information they managed to catch before Russian officials scrubbed the info from social media.  The officer estimates are at minimum 3,450 as of today, and officer deaths are easier to catch, because usually they make a bigger deal out of the officers in terms of memorials.

In Vietnam, about 13.5% of all American casualties were officers (including Warrant Officers), while in Russia, from the verified stats, it's around 8%. That's probably about right - there would have been far more American officers exposed to enemy fire in Vietnam due to the nature of the war (lots of deaths of US Air Force pilots, lots of deaths among US Army helicopter pilots).  Russian officers also don't seem to be leading from the front.

Speaking of, Killed in Ukraine put out another tally today.  Another colonel and three lieutenant colonels. 

[atomheartbevo 89661]

9 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Also, when can we expect Hungary to follow suit?

Given that they are currently tangling with the other 26 members of the EU (most of whom are NATO members) over aid to Ukraine, I wonder.

Also, there's this - Hungary playing their dumb fucking games and claiming that Sweden doesn't need to be in NATO.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/nato-accession-looks-be-not-priority-sweden-hungary-says-2024-01-18/

Quote

BUDAPEST, Jan 18 (Reuters) - Sweden has not done anything to boost confidence in its suitability for NATO membership, and has given the impression that joining the alliance is not a priority for the country, an aide to Hungary's prime minister said on Thursday.

Quote

Ratification has been stranded in the Hungarian parliament for more than a year, with Prime Minister Viktor Orban's ruling nationalists saying there is no threat to Sweden's security and citing what they call undue Swedish allegations that they have eroded democracy in Hungary.

Sweden was "not taking any steps to strengthen trust in order for our relationship to become one of allies and friends", Gergely Gulyas, Orban's chief of staff, told a briefing.

But maybe they are trying to get something from Sweden:

Quote

"This relationship is one of allies legally right now, but it cannot be considered friendly, thus I need to conclude that it is not a priority for Sweden to join NATO quickly at all today." The Swedish foreign ministry did not immediately respond to an emailed request for comment.

Gulyas suggested that Sweden's foreign minister or prime minister should "get in touch and ask what concerns the Hungarian parliament has" about Sweden's NATO accession.

 

[atomheartbevo 89661]

38 years in the military and dead of a heart attack.  And his son burned up in a tank.  Hope the widow/mother is proud.

 

[atomheartbevo 89661]

 

[PTINS 3467]

18 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:

 

 

It is not obvious exactly what was hit at the Ust-Luga complex in the Baltic Sea. It appears to be the gas (natural gas, not gasoline)/condensate processing facility/terminal.

In addition, there is a crude oil export (large) terminal, and a new LNG Plant/terminal (2 trains) that was set to come on-line in 2024 & 2025. I haven't gone own the black hole, but I'm assuming the LNG is delayed at best.

* According to Novatek, the Ust-Luga complex, launched in 2013, processes gas condensate into light and heavy naphtha, jet fuel, ship fuel  (fuel oil) and gasoil, and enables the company to ship oil products as well as gas condensate to international markets.  

17 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Hitting those oil and gas terminals and plants, that’s the level of stuff NATO would do in a war with Russia. That’s some strategery right there. That’s hitting them economically, hurting their logistics chains, and potentially making it hard on the civilians as well (heating, electricity).

Just speculating, but this export terminal looks like it was for European demand, not domestic consumption.  More later. 

14 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

They should keep hitting Russian oil and gas infrastructure.  The Russians don’t have easy access to Western replacement parts.

In one of the links in a prior post, one of the Russian refineries that was damaged by Ukraine? had difficulty getting western (US) replacement parts and obtained the "Made in China" variety. The new parts didn't work, and that portion of the facility was shut down.  In this case, the refinery products probably went towards the war effort ... advantage Ukraine. 

2 hours ago, B00M said:

This combination of ice and fire at Novatek is hard for me to wrap my head around. Russia looks like hell on earth

I addressed this in the Arctic Freeze threads, it is hell on earth.

Some places the facilities are put inside buildings, which protects you from the elements. The flip side is taking extremely volatile natural gas, increasing the pressure, and adding heat just to make it more fun, and putting it inside a structure that prevents small leaks from dissipating naturally.  The stories that make the news all have common elements; there is a leak, either equipment failure or human error, the actions taken are either correct or not, and the leak continues until it is shut off or finds an ignition source.

The outdoor facilities as shown above have their own problems.  Process facilities are cooled by aerial coolers, cooling water systems or mechanical refrigeration. Aerial coolers are affected by cold weather mixed with precipitation. eventually, the ice wins. Cooling water system are more efficient and dynamic, and expensive. Water & steam moving through pipes in freezing weather is normal. Water & steam not moving through pipes in freezing weather is a big problem.

You can imagine the phone calls these guys get; "Is the fire out yet? Why Not? What's taking so long?" 

"They should keep hitting Russian oil and gas infrastructure."

I expect this is one area where the EU, US & Asia have a direct influence on Ukraines targeting of oil & facilities.  Assistance and support for Ukraine is dependent on healthy domestic economies for each contributor.  You cannot shut down significant Russian oil production without a catastrophic impact on worldwide economies. There is not enough extra capacity worldwide to replace the Russian capacity. It is a zero sum game. 

That is the tricky part. You want to hit the parts that only affect internal Russian dynamics without interrupting the portion that feeds worldwide commerce.

Some data I saw while mousing around; I did not/cannot verity source of data, so take it with a salt shaker:

Russian Crude Oil Tracker

"Timely and publicly available data on Russian oil exports is insufficient (the best effort we are aware of comes from CREA who we build upon). Our aim is to help fill in the gap by providing clear and comprehensive information on recent export volumes and routes. We have compiled our data from multiple sources and validated numbers against external sources, and we believe the data allows for sensible interpretation of  trends over time."

Russia's waterborne crude exports have increased since the invasion of Ukraine.

Western consumption of Russian shifted from the EU/Far East to China & India, while crude oil supplies that used to go to China & India have shifted to the EU/Far East.

The realities of world economies. It is not so much the impact on the average consumer, but the impact on the businesses that are impacted by the simple facilitating of the changing supply & demand. They don't go where it goes and who uses it, as long as it goes somewhere.

[AUS-97HORN 11759]

2 hours ago, Pato del Muerto said:

 

wonder how this one will end

sigh... 13 years later and we all wonder how it will end.

[AUS-97HORN 11759]

32 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

edit nevermind, they edited it

Edited January 22 by AUS-97HORN

[Macanudo 12978]

1 hour ago, PTINS said:

 

It is not obvious exactly what was hit at the Ust-Luga complex in the Baltic Sea. It appears to be the gas (natural gas, not gasoline)/condensate processing facility/terminal.

In addition, there is a crude oil export (large) terminal, and a new LNG Plant/terminal (2 trains) that was set to come on-line in 2024 & 2025. I haven't gone own the black hole, but I'm assuming the LNG is delayed at best.

* According to Novatek, the Ust-Luga complex, launched in 2013, processes gas condensate into light and heavy naphtha, jet fuel, ship fuel  (fuel oil) and gasoil, and enables the company to ship oil products as well as gas condensate to international markets.  

Just speculating, but this export terminal looks like it was for European demand, not domestic consumption.  More later. 

In one of the links in a prior post, one of the Russian refineries that was damaged by Ukraine? had difficulty getting western (US) replacement parts and obtained the "Made in China" variety. The new parts didn't work, and that portion of the facility was shut down.  In this case, the refinery products probably went towards the war effort ... advantage Ukraine. 

I addressed this in the Arctic Freeze threads, it is hell on earth.

Some places the facilities are put inside buildings, which protects you from the elements. The flip side is taking extremely volatile natural gas, increasing the pressure, and adding heat just to make it more fun, and putting it inside a structure that prevents small leaks from dissipating naturally.  The stories that make the news all have common elements; there is a leak, either equipment failure or human error, the actions taken are either correct or not, and the leak continues until it is shut off or finds an ignition source.

The outdoor facilities as shown above have their own problems.  Process facilities are cooled by aerial coolers, cooling water systems or mechanical refrigeration. Aerial coolers are affected by cold weather mixed with precipitation. eventually, the ice wins. Cooling water system are more efficient and dynamic, and expensive. Water & steam moving through pipes in freezing weather is normal. Water & steam not moving through pipes in freezing weather is a big problem.

You can imagine the phone calls these guys get; "Is the fire out yet? Why Not? What's taking so long?" 

"They should keep hitting Russian oil and gas infrastructure."

I expect this is one area where the EU, US & Asia have a direct influence on Ukraines targeting of oil & facilities.  Assistance and support for Ukraine is dependent on healthy domestic economies for each contributor.  You cannot shut down significant Russian oil production without a catastrophic impact on worldwide economies. There is not enough extra capacity worldwide to replace the Russian capacity. It is a zero sum game. 

That is the tricky part. You want to hit the parts that only affect internal Russian dynamics without interrupting the portion that feeds worldwide commerce.

Some data I saw while mousing around; I did not/cannot verity source of data, so take it with a salt shaker:

Russian Crude Oil Tracker

"Timely and publicly available data on Russian oil exports is insufficient (the best effort we are aware of comes from CREA who we build upon). Our aim is to help fill in the gap by providing clear and comprehensive information on recent export volumes and routes. We have compiled our data from multiple sources and validated numbers against external sources, and we believe the data allows for sensible interpretation of  trends over time."

Russia's waterborne crude exports have increased since the invasion of Ukraine.

Western consumption of Russian shifted from the EU/Far East to China & India, while crude oil supplies that used to go to China & India have shifted to the EU/Far East.

The realities of world economies. It is not so much the impact on the average consumer, but the impact on the businesses that are impacted by the simple facilitating of the changing supply & demand. They don't go where it goes and who uses it, as long as it goes somewhere.

 

If I were the Ukrainians, I would start hitting the Russian electrical grid, especially around Moscow/St Pete.  If large swaths of Russians started having to sit in the dark freezing their asses off, Putin would have a different problem on his hands.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

Kinda war crimey isn’t it?

[ABSR 5311]

2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

In Vietnam, about 13.5% of all American casualties were officers (including Warrant Officers), while in Russia, from the verified stats, it's around 8%. That's probably about right - there would have been far more American officers exposed to enemy fire in Vietnam due to the nature of the war (lots of deaths of US Air Force pilots, lots of deaths among US Army helicopter pilots).  Russian officers also don't seem to be leading from the front.

 

 

Disagree on part in bold.  Russia does not have a strong NCO base, so when deployed they have to be led by officers who act as NCO and officer.  So they actually need more officers instead of less.    Now if they move to meat grinder tactics they may not have officers as they just push the new and poorly trained forward with little support.

[Stilicho 1397]

Are we certain there aren't already large portions of Russia's population sitting in the dark freezing their ass off?

[InkaUtexas 25934]

There are, but putin does not give a fuck.

[Macanudo 12978]

17 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Kinda war crimey isn’t it?

What if the part of the power grid they hit also services a Russian Air Force field?   Or the Kremlin?   I'm not talking about drone strikes on Red Sqaure just the power stations near it.

[InkaUtexas 25934]

I would rather see them hit Red Square AND the power plants.

After what Russia has done I think Ukraine can do quite more. They have shown restraint.

[Parliament 14258]

10 minutes ago, Stilicho said:

Are we certain there aren't already large portions of Russia's population sitting in the dark freezing their ass off?

There are.  It's Russia.  The only reliable fuel they have is cabbage

1 minute ago, InkaUtexas said:

I would rather see them hit Red Square AND the power plants.

After what Russia has done I think Ukraine can do quite more. They have shown restraint.

And O&G distribution.  O&G are the only things of export value in that who shithole nation.

[Pescado_Rojo 19416]

49 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Kinda war crimey isn’t it?

It's no rape of Bucha. 

[Rimbo 25932]

On 1/20/2024 at 11:09 PM, atomheartbevo said:

 

here he is:

 

[Schulz2.0 28951]

 

 

[Schulz2.0 28951]

 

[statsman 5468]

1 hour ago, Stilicho said:

Are we certain there aren't already large portions of Russia's population sitting in the dark freezing their ass off?

Yes, but they’re drunk

[elfenix 34239]

1 hour ago, Parliament said:

There are.  It's Russia.  The only reliable fuel they have is cabbage

As someone who has eaten a lot of cabbage the last few days (see the stew thread), can confirm.

 

1 hour ago, Parliament said:

And O&G distribution.  O&G are the only things of export value in that who shithole nation.

Pretty sure Chaturbate is quickly catching arms sales as no. 2. Might have even surpassed if we're talking net.

[F250 28774]

2 hours ago, Stilicho said:

Are we certain there aren't already large portions of Russia's population sitting in the dark freezing their ass off?

Isn't that a standard Monday in Russia?

[B00M 6416]

2 hours ago, statsman said:

Yes, but they’re drunk

Vodka freezes at -16 deg F (-27 deg C)

[atomheartbevo 89661]

 

[atomheartbevo 89661]

 

[atomheartbevo 89661]

 

Russia could just, I dunno, maybe leave, and then this discussion doesn’t have to be had.

[atomheartbevo 89661]

 

[InkaUtexas 25934]

12 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

He needs to run into a drone. And can you tell us more about the 50 orgasms to end tobacco use?

[atomheartbevo 89661]

Using frozen corpses as sandbags…..

[atomheartbevo 89661]

7 hours ago, ABSR said:

Disagree on part in bold.  Russia does not have a strong NCO base, so when deployed they have to be led by officers who act as NCO and officer.  So they actually need more officers instead of less.    Now if they move to meat grinder tactics they may not have officers as they just push the new and poorly trained forward with little support.

I agree about the NCO thing, but it’s pretty clear that they are in a meat grinder phase, and that there is very little discipline, which makes me think not many officers are at the front.  We see Russian trenches just full of, or surrounded by, trash. We see Russian soldiers running around panicked, which means no real training.  We don’t see a lot of coordination of Russian troops - the Ukrainians are doing a good job of dividing them up/cutting them off from one another. We see groups of Russians filming themselves begging Shoigu or a Putin or whoever to correct their problems. It’s just a shitshow.

I think Russian officers at the company level are positioning themselves a defensive line or two towards the rear.

[texastough 1129]

Something must have happened yesterday. Ukraine is claiming it destroyed 51 artillery pieces, 59 APC's, and 65 other vehicles.  If you're keeping track at home, thats a huge daily total, probably at least 3x the daily average.

 

[Chad Fuck 17681]

Something must have happened yesterday. Ukraine is claiming it destroyed 51 artillery pieces, 59 APC's, and 65 other vehicles.  If you're keeping track at home, thats a huge daily total, probably at least 3x the daily average.
 

In a couple days we will find out.

[Orange&White 5528]

2 hours ago, texastough said:

Something must have happened yesterday. Ukraine is claiming it destroyed 51 artillery pieces, 59 APC's, and 65 other vehicles.  If you're keeping track at home, thats a huge daily total, probably at least 3x the daily average.

 

Nvm..I am still finishing my first coffee.

Edited January 23 by Orange&White

[Schulz2.0 28951]

 

[Schulz2.0 28951]

 

 

 

[Pescado_Rojo 19416]

5 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

 

 

 

I wonder if the low intercept rates on the anti-ship missiles and S300/400 missiles are because they were in areas without much air defense or if those are tougher to hit for some reason. I assume the anti-ship missiles are low altitude "sea skimmer" types? 

[Chad Fuck 17681]

10 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

I wonder if the low intercept rates on the anti-ship missiles and S300/400 missiles are because they were in areas without much air defense or if those are tougher to hit for some reason. I assume the anti-ship missiles are low altitude "sea skimmer" types? 

Or the Uke's are running out of AA ammo because of US foot dragging.  Which I guess is the same as your first premise.