Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[tx 3 putt 77925]

[Schulz2.0 29039]

 

[KYHorn 17265]

16 hours ago, statsman said:

I am a very political person, and am very disappointed to discover there really isn’t a party in the U.S. that advocates limited government, inalienable rights, free-ish markets, fiscal responsibility and national security- all ideas that seem reasonable and tested to me. I alternate between anger and relief (“not my monkey, not my circus” is liberating when confronted with idiocies from members of the party I used to claim). 

I assume you're aware of The Dispatch (thedispatch.com). If not, you'd probably appreciate it.

18 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Cannot express enough how much I dislike this Pope. We need more Polish popes. 
 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/pope-says-ukraine-should-have-courage-white-flag-negotiations-2024-03-09/

 

 

Edited March 10 by KYHorn

[Schulz2.0 29039]

^Andrew Perpetua brought up the other day that the Russians have been able to fly high altitude, long range surveillance drones without any issue to pick out targets for these bombs. He said Ukraine really needs fighter jets (F-16s) to shoot these drones down.

[Bevo 13635]

7 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

^Andrew Perpetua brought up the other day that the Russians have been able to fly high altitude, long range surveillance drones without any issue to pick out targets for these bombs. He said Ukraine really needs fighter jets (F-16s) to shoot these drones down.

They should have been there a year ago and reports in Dec said the first 12 would be there in a few weeks.

[bolverk 29815]

1 hour ago, Schulz2.0 said:

^Andrew Perpetua brought up the other day that the Russians have been able to fly high altitude, long range surveillance drones without any issue to pick out targets for these bombs. He said Ukraine really needs fighter jets (F-16s) to shoot these drones down.

Some background

 

[Schulz2.0 29039]

 

 

[tx 3 putt 77925]

[Bevo 13635]

If Russia mobilizes by declaring war, does that open the door for Ukraine to attack Russian cities. It seems that for political reasons and perhaps lack of ammunition that Ukraine targets only war-related entities. But at some point, it seems like bringing the war to the Russian people will be one of the few things that can turn the tide against Putin. At the very least, I would think the Kremlin and Putin’s vacation home would be legitimate targets. Would such attacks turn the tide of public opinion against Ukraine?

[statsman 5498]

18 minutes ago, Bevo said:

If Russia mobilizes by declaring war, does that open the door for Ukraine to attack Russian cities. It seems that for political reasons and perhaps lack of ammunition that Ukraine targets only war-related entities. But at some point, it seems like bringing the war to the Russian people will be one of the few things that can turn the tide against Putin. At the very least, I would think the Kremlin and Putin’s vacation home would be legitimate targets. Would such attacks turn the tide of public opinion against Ukraine?

No. A lot of western aid is preconditioned on Ukraine not attacking Russia proper. They have worked around it surreptitiously, but doing so overtly is a no-no. 

[atomheartbevo 90045]

49 minutes ago, statsman said:

No. A lot of western aid is preconditioned on Ukraine not attacking Russia proper. They have worked around it surreptitiously, but doing so overtly is a no-no. 

Yep. Military and economic assets inside of Russia and being used against Ukraine = good.  Purely revenge targets = bad.

If Putin openly declares war and how’s full mobilization, that seems like it would kick off protests on a larger scale (what are they going to do to the men, ship them to Ukraine even faster?) and initiate another massive brain drain (although they would do their best to stop them from leaving Russia).

[flatdawgs 1295]

2 hours ago, Bevo said:

...it seems like bringing the war to the Russian people will be one of the few things that can turn the tide against Putin. 

That... doesn't work.

WWII out front shoulda told ya (and not just Russia, but pretty much all combatant states) . 

[Schulz2.0 29039]

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/11/world/europe/ukraine-f16-pilots.html

[Schulz2.0 29039]

 

[Schulz2.0 29039]

[Parliament 14368]

I'm afraid this war is gonna end badly.  I guess we at least got to kill some Russians and accelerate their decline.  Hollow win there.

[statsman 5498]

Russia went to a wartime production. 
 
The U.S. wouldn’t. 
 
Europe couldn’t. (Evidently)

[Trey3216 15380]

On 3/9/2024 at 10:38 PM, tx 3 putt said:

Burn Baby Burn 

 

Methane inferno! 

[Viper 12155]

 

[InkaUtexas 26349]

https://apnews.com/video/sweden-stockholm-belgium-north-atlantic-treaty-organization-jens-stoltenberg-ef6c353d9d9e42a69695a709b64ccada

 

[NeverMarryAStripper 22030]

2 hours ago, Parliament said:

I'm afraid this war is gonna end badly.  I guess we at least got to kill some Russians and accelerate their decline.  Hollow win there.

Ammo and weapons now, or troops later.  It's not a complicated equation.

[Bevo 13635]

Enforcing an oil embargo would work also. Although, China and India and the US and Europe pose problems in that regard. It seems every country prefers cheap oil over the possibility of Russia winning the war.

[956 Worldwide 34914]

Potentially more serious damage to A-50s, this time on the ground. 
 

 

[956 Worldwide 34914]

15 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/11/world/europe/ukraine-f16-pilots.html

F-16s ordinarily have a LOOOOONG runway (metaphorically) to get going. In non-wartime, it’s a multi-year process.  They ordinarily require a lot of infrastructure and for Kyiv even more.  They need good clean runways, they need hangers (in Ukraine likely hardened.  They need secure hardened storage for munitions). The birds they are getting are old and they have to figure out sustainment and get the technicians REALLY trained up or find some work-around (cough). 
 

This is completely unsurprising. 

[nineliveslost 2888]

8 hours ago, Parliament said:

I'm afraid this war is gonna end badly.  I guess we at least got to kill some Russians and accelerate their decline.  Hollow win there.

It seems like a continuing meat grinder for both sides. Problem is Russia has the men to throw away and Ukraine doesn't. Even with the $ support Ukraine can't sustain the manpower loss. Russia is bleeding them dry. Just turns my stomach that the world is going to watch and then shrug. 

Should Nato or Europe support with manpower at the rear guard or the supporting roles away from the front lines? Will it even matter? 

The US doesn't have the stomach for boots on the ground again. 

[956 Worldwide 34914]

5 minutes ago, nineliveslost said:

It seems like a continuing meat grinder for both sides. Problem is Russia has the men to throw away and Ukraine doesn't. Even with the $ support Ukraine can't sustain the manpower loss. Russia is bleeding them dry. Just turns my stomach that the world is going to watch and then shrug. 

Should Nato or Europe support with manpower at the rear guard or the supporting roles away from the front lines? Will it even matter? 

The US doesn't have the stomach for boots on the ground again. 

We should have put a company in Ukraine at one of the training and NATO integration centers in late 2022 and we likely have no war. 

[atomheartbevo 90045]

51 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

F-16s ordinarily have a LOOOOONG runway (metaphorically) to get going. In non-wartime, it’s a multi-year process.  They ordinarily require a lot of infrastructure and for Kyiv even more.  They need good clean runways, they need hangers (in Ukraine likely hardened.  They need secure hardened storage for munitions). The birds they are getting are old and they have to figure out sustainment and get the technicians REALLY trained up or find some work-around (cough). 

This is completely unsurprising. 

Yeah, like the video I posted a few days ago with the fighter pilots talking about it, Ukraine really needs something more like the Swedish jets or F-18s. They mentioned with the F-16s you can’t fuck around with clean runways.  The big F-16 advantage is that we have a thousand of them sitting in storage.

[956 Worldwide 34914]

1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

Yeah, like the video I posted a few days ago with the fighter pilots talking about it, Ukraine really needs something more like the Swedish jets or F-18s. They mentioned with the F-16s you can’t fuck around with clean runways.  The big F-16 advantage is that we have a thousand of them sitting in storage.

Yeah, we talked about this long ago and I mentioned that the JAS-39 would be perfect for them. 
 

But the F-16 is the most produced and available option. And thats what counts. 

[atomheartbevo 90045]

36 minutes ago, nineliveslost said:

It seems like a continuing meat grinder for both sides. Problem is Russia has the men to throw away and Ukraine doesn't. Even with the $ support Ukraine can't sustain the manpower loss. Russia is bleeding them dry. Just turns my stomach that the world is going to watch and then shrug. 

The one good thing is that Russia doesn’t have the logistics chain and vehicles to penetrate much farther than they already have, otherwise we would have seen them long before now.  They can certainly move the lines here and there, but there won’t be any more runs at Kyiv or thoughts about Odessa.   Putin seems to have cooled his heels about trying to get Belarus actively involved, probably helped by the fact that Russia has emptied out a lot of Belarus’s armories.  

I do think Putin has his limits on manpower as well, otherwise we would have seen a much larger mobilization last year. Instead, he’s keeping it smaller, and the Ukrainians are at least able to handle some of that.  

[nineliveslost 2888]

3 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

The one good thing is that Russia doesn’t have the logistics chain and vehicles to penetrate much farther than they already have, otherwise we would have seen them long before now.  They can certainly move the lines here and there, but there won’t be any more runs at Kyiv or thoughts about Odessa.   Putin seems to have cooled his heels about trying to get Belarus actively involved, probably helped by the fact that Russia has emptied out a lot of Belarus’s armories.  

I do think Putin has his limits on manpower as well, otherwise we would have seen a much larger mobilization last year. Instead, he’s keeping it smaller, and the Ukrainians are at least able to handle some of that.  

stalemate will be horrible. He will build up his lines and support and in parallel have the little green men start showing up more and more in Ukraine. He will then proceed with "liberation." He will attack them from the inside out.

[956 Worldwide 34914]

10 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

The one good thing is that Russia doesn’t have the logistics chain and vehicles to penetrate much farther than they already have, otherwise we would have seen them long before now.  They can certainly move the lines here and there, but there won’t be any more runs at Kyiv or thoughts about Odessa.   Putin seems to have cooled his heels about trying to get Belarus actively involved, probably helped by the fact that Russia has emptied out a lot of Belarus’s armories.  

I do think Putin has his limits on manpower as well, otherwise we would have seen a much larger mobilization last year. Instead, he’s keeping it smaller, and the Ukrainians are at least able to handle some of that.  

Let’s keep an eye on what Putin does after the elections.  Russia is a bizarre place in that frequently the Kremlin feels compelled to be answerable to the Russian people as demonstrated in the elections they manipulate.  But it’s a big deal for them to not appear just “arbitrary.”  I think he’s going to frame his massive victory this weekend as a referendum of support for the war and potentially increase mobilization. 
 

On another topic, it’s weird how in history we so often gloss over that at one point, not really that long ago, Sweden was a military great power on the continent. A country that people used to say “oh shit” when they got involved and were capable of doing a “deluge.”

 

[atomheartbevo 90045]

2 minutes ago, nineliveslost said:

stalemate will be horrible. He will build up his lines and support and in parallel have the little green men start showing up more and more in Ukraine. He will then proceed with "liberation." He will attack them from the inside out.

Drones are going to make a lot of that difficult though (they really are a force multiplier), and as I said, his logistics chain is absolute shit.

And as for the little green men, his training pipeline is shit, and so much of the institutional knowledge has been lost in his military.  His little green men are liable to be Indians or Mongolians or Pakistanis.

This Friday when his “election” kicks off, I think that will give us a clue - if we see a lot of protests, that may slow things down.

[atomheartbevo 90045]

3 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

On another topic, it’s weird how in history we so often gloss over that at one point, not really that long ago, Sweden was a military great power on the continent. A country that people used to say “oh shit” when they got involved and were capable of doing a “deluge.”

 

[956 Worldwide 34914]

8 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Drones are going to make a lot of that difficult though (they really are a force multiplier), and as I said, his logistics chain is absolute shit.

And as for the little green men, his training pipeline is shit, and so much of the institutional knowledge has been lost in his military.  His little green men are liable to be Indians or Mongolians or Pakistanis.

This Friday when his “election” kicks off, I think that will give us a clue - if we see a lot of protests, that may slow things down.

I cannot explain exactly how little the leaders of Pakistan or India give a shit about Indians or Pakistanis.  Modi will do absolutely nothing about that.
 

The Indian thing is ruthlessly brilliant, he will face no consequences and doesn’t have to lose any Russians.  Might as well save them for if you needs someone to fight, an Indian is just as good to eat a drone or clear a land mine. 

[atomheartbevo 90045]

7 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Let’s keep an eye on what Putin does after the elections.  Russia is a bizarre place in that frequently the Kremlin feels compelled to be answerable to the Russian people as demonstrated in the elections they manipulate.  But it’s a big deal for them to not appear just “arbitrary.”  I think he’s going to frame his massive victory this weekend as a referendum of support for the war and potentially increase mobilization. 

I’ll be curious if a shitload of people all decide to vote at noon like Navalny was trying to organize.  

I keep coming back to whether he will mobilize Moscow and St Pete’s and a few of the next largest cities.  On the one hand, he’s recruiting foreigners in large numbers, and that’s easier than getting Russian volunteers, but that also shows, in its own way, a lack of support for the war.  I wonder how much longer they can conscript the poor and rural Russians before that hurts the country any more than it has.

He’s already caused one massive brain drain, and any large scale mobilization that hits the larger cities could equal that, and the idea of Russian border guards shooting Russian men trying to flee the country probably wouldn’t go over well with the Russian people.

I will be extremely curious how his talking heads on Russian state TV would frame a large-scale mobilization in the large cities.  The idea of Vladimir Solovyov screaming his head off about why middle-class Muscovites should go fight in Ukraine will be entertaining.  I do think that could be the line too far for “mainstream” Russia that Putin covets (not the poors and rurals)

[Bevo 13635]

56 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

 The big F-16 advantage is that we have a thousand of them sitting in storage.

Does that matter when you send less than 12 and don't train many pilots? I don't get it but we as the free-world kind of suck.

[Schulz2.0 29039]

42 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Mongolians

[Rimbo 26428]

Apologies: the below link and blurb are just small parts of this larger article.

 

Mick Ryan speaks.

A Ukrainian 2024 Counteroffensive?

Quote

 

 

 

Image: @DefenceU Twitter / x

The potential for a Ukrainian counteroffensive in 2024 has been openly discussed by the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, as well as by the commander of the Ukrainian ground forces Lieutenant General Oleksandr Pavlyuk.

Zelenskyy referred to Ukrainian plans for a 2024 counteroffensive in a late February interview, noting: "We will prepare a new counteroffensive, a new operation."

More recently, General Pavlyuk described how Ukraine would rotate frontline forces in the near future and, in doing so, create a new group of forces to conduct "counteroffensive actions".

To plan, prepare for and execute a large-scale counteroffensive in 2024 will be an enormous undertaking for Ukraine. There are three key challenges.

First, Ukraine has a shortage of personnel in its military. The shortages in frontline soldiers are most acute, and this has contributed to the Russians being able to slowly advance in the east and the south over the past couple of months.

Without a resolution to this problem, which would necessitate a wider mobilisation of people in Ukraine, building a reserve of ground forces for offensive actions will be very difficult.

A second challenge is the shortage in firepower. Ukraine is currently experiencing shortfalls in artillery ammunition — for Soviet era and western weapons — as well as shortages in air defence munitions. This was a contributing factor in the recent withdrawal from Avdiivka.

Without a new aid package from the United States, there is little hope of current shortfalls being addressed and even fewer prospects of being able to build up the stocks needed for any large-scale counteroffensive.

A third and final challenge is the current ascendancy of Russian ground forces. As a recent assessment by the Lithuanian State Security Department has described: "Russia has financial, human, material, and technical resources to continue the war at a similar intensity in at least the near term … Military industry is becoming a driving force of Russia's economy at the expense of other sectors."

Russia has the manpower and munitions to continue its current offensive operations, and potentially expand them as spring arrives. It also has the capacity in the short to medium term to replenish losses in both. This is a situation that does not hold true for the Ukrainians.

Read the rest of my final regular column for ABC Australia here.

 

Edited March 12 by Rimbo

[Schulz2.0 29039]

https://www.ft.com/content/036b8215-efe8-4778-a839-3332d8183eae

[Schulz2.0 29039]

 

 

[Schulz2.0 29039]

 

[956 Worldwide 34914]

Now reports of some ground forces crossing into the Kursk region. 

[Schulz2.0 29039]

 

 

[Schulz2.0 29039]

[Schulz2.0 29039]

 

 

[B00M 6575]

12 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

We should have put a company in Ukraine at one of the training and NATO integration centers in late 2022 and we likely have no war. 

It might be too early for me. Did you mean to say 2021?

[956 Worldwide 34914]

13 minutes ago, B00M said:

It might be too early for me. Did you mean to say 2021?

Yep, just brain burped. 

[DigglerontheHoof 21273]

1 hour ago, Schulz2.0 said:

 

 

IMO, Ukraine needs to do a shit-ton more of this. Hit as much Orc infrastructure as possible.  Make the Russian serfs feel the pain.  And if a few thousand of them die....

Edited March 12 by DigglerontheHoof

[956 Worldwide 34914]

 

[B00M 6575]

 

On 3/12/2024 at 5:59 AM, DigglerontheHoof said:

IMO, Ukraine needs to do a shit-ton more of this. Hit as much Orc infrastructure as possible.  Make the Russian serfs feel the pain.  And if a few thousand of them die....

100% 

if we’re going to be useless, Ukraine needs to fuck Russian oil and gas infrastructure non stop. 

also, fuck that bridge in the east. Maybe that’s how F16s enter the chat.

Just maintain morale until we get our political shit together