Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[Captainant 27680]

1 minute ago, RPM said:

I know Russian air defense ain't what it used to be, but they have a radar profile on the Nighthawk from the '99 shootdown.

Russia's air detection has been pretty severely degraded - they're down a couple of AWACs planes that were undoubtedly in better condition in the 90s, not to mention the actual attrition of staff to man the equipment 

[956 Worldwide 34715]

[atomheartbevo 89730]

7 hours ago, Captainant said:

Russia's air detection has been pretty severely degraded - they're down a couple of AWACs planes that were undoubtedly in better condition in the 90s, not to mention the actual attrition of staff to man the equipment 

It’s stretched extremely thin if so many drones are making it deep into Russia. If I had to guess, I’d say Moscow, St Petersburg, and their air bases are getting the bulk of air defenses.

[statsman 5472]

I suspect Russia weighs the cost-benefit analysis of one AD missile vs. whatever damage a drone does differently than we do in the west. 

[Schulz2.0 28960]

^ The Czechs said yesterday that they've procured 300k artillery shells, buy they won't be delivered until the end of May or early June.

[statsman 5472]

This is a ridiculous failure of all in the west (as a former Republican, I have no problem assigning the lion’s share of blame to “The Freedom Caucus”), in that Ukraine is losing to these idiots because, two years after this war started, not enough artillery and munitions are being produced. 
 
It’s great that Germany is sending 10,000 shells; that will cover one day. Its great the Czechs are stepping up; 300k shells in three months are too few, too late. 
 
https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/russian-threat-forces-europe-to-choose-bolster-defense-or-protect-social-spending-5d701b05?st=bs3a0xfm9n9fzqh&reflink=mobilewebshare_permalink

[Bevo 13579]

3 hours ago, statsman said:

This is a ridiculous failure of all in the west (as a former Republican, I have no problem assigning the lion’s share of blame to “The Freedom Caucus”), in that Ukraine is losing to these idiots because, two years after this war started, not enough artillery and munitions are being produced. 
 
It’s great that Germany is sending 10,000 shells; that will cover one day. Its great the Czechs are stepping up; 300k shells in three months are too few, too late. 
 
https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/russian-threat-forces-europe-to-choose-bolster-defense-or-protect-social-spending-5d701b05?st=bs3a0xfm9n9fzqh&reflink=mobilewebshare_permalink

Germany needs to step up but they are tied to Russia so they don't really want to. Poland and the Czech Republic and Hungary and Sweden and Finland and Estonia, and Latvia and Lithuania are next in needing to step up. Hungary won't because they are tied with Russia. Poland and the Czech Republic have financial constraints. This shouldn't be a majority US problem although it is obvious that the US needs to step up. The countries who are most fucked by Russian aggression, though, need to figure out a way to step up to the plate. It is a good time for NATO to really push Europe to contributing more towards the world's defense and if that doesn't happen then the ones directly impacted need to do something. And quite frankly, Ukraine has got to figure out a way to get more men on the battlefield. Right now besides the lack of weapons, Ukraine is suffering from a manpower issue.

[Viper 12109]

 

 

[InkaUtexas 25986]

2 minutes ago, Viper said:

 

 

That is a lot of troops to support and equip. How are they going to arm them?

[YGIFS 19452]

14 new divisions, roughly...what, 150,000 troops?  sounds intimidating until you find out who is populating those divisions.  There's conscription.  There's attrition.  Then there's conscription by attrition.  It's Easter Season so I'm going to admit I feel a tad bit bad about what's going to happen next to some groups of people coming from the East.  Just as new weapons systems and support are being rebooted for Ukraine.  So much unnecessary bloodshed to celebrate a 're-election.'  This is going to get fucked up in a hurry.  

[Schulz2.0 28960]

14 minutes ago, Viper said:

 

 

I stopped reading at "Shoigu said."

[Schulz2.0 28960]

1 hour ago, Bevo said:

Germany needs to step up but they are tied to Russia so they don't really want to. Poland and the Czech Republic and Hungary and Sweden and Finland and Estonia, and Latvia and Lithuania are next in needing to step up. Hungary won't because they are tied with Russia. Poland and the Czech Republic have financial constraints. This shouldn't be a majority US problem although it is obvious that the US needs to step up. The countries who are most fucked by Russian aggression, though, need to figure out a way to step up to the plate. It is a good time for NATO to really push Europe to contributing more towards the world's defense and if that doesn't happen then the ones directly impacted need to do something. And quite frankly, Ukraine has got to figure out a way to get more men on the battlefield. Right now besides the lack of weapons, Ukraine is suffering from a manpower issue.

When most of Europe is in a recession and facing a major demographics issue isn't the best timing for massive increase in defense spending. I'd add that most of the countries most at risk of Russian aggression are the ones spending money on defense. The ones that aren't meeting the 2.0% defense spending are countries further away from Russia and less at risk.

[texastough 1129]

1 hour ago, InkaUtexas said:

That is a lot of troops to support and equip. How are they going to arm them?

Since they have almost used up the T-55 tanks, ancient field guns, Mosin-Nagants, next up is potato guns. The only problem with that is since they can't feed their troops either, they would eat up all the ammo.

[Bevo 13579]

11 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

When most of Europe is in a recession and facing a major demographics issue isn't the best timing for massive increase in defense spending. I'd add that most of the countries most at risk of Russian aggression are the ones spending money on defense. The ones that aren't meeting the 2.0% defense spending are countries further away from Russia and less at risk.

 

Well, in theory, Europe is at war as Russia impacts Europe and especially Germany more than it impacts us.   But, many in Europe don't see it that way and would rather worry about 2% defense spending and cheap oil and re-elections than winning the fucking war before it comes to their borders. So, as much as we would like to blame the US, Europe needs to come to grips with the reality of the situation. And if they are fine with Ukraine losing then that is on them not the US. As much as I want the US to give more guns and money to Ukraine, if we don't do it then Europe must. We shouldn't have to bear the brunt of Europe's failures just because European countries want to keep defense spending below 2%.

[Foosters 17858]

2 minutes ago, Bevo said:

 

Well, in theory, Europe is at war as Russia impacts Europe and especially Germany more than it impacts us.   But, many in Europe don't see it that way and would rather worry about 2% defense spending and cheap oil and re-elections than winning the fucking war before it comes to their borders. So, as much as we would like to blame the US, Europe needs to come to grips with the reality of the situation. And if they are fine with Ukraine losing then that is on them not the US. As much as I want the US to give more guns and money to Ukraine, if we don't do it then Europe must. We shouldn't have to bear the brunt of Europe's failures just because European countries want to keep defense spending below 2%.

That's fine. But perhaps next time, we don't spend 50 years doing the lion's share during peacetime, only to balk about participation rates when the bombs are failing on European cities. 

 

 

[Schulz2.0 28960]

1 hour ago, Bevo said:

 

Well, in theory, Europe is at war as Russia impacts Europe and especially Germany more than it impacts us.   But, many in Europe don't see it that way and would rather worry about 2% defense spending and cheap oil and re-elections than winning the fucking war before it comes to their borders. So, as much as we would like to blame the US, Europe needs to come to grips with the reality of the situation. And if they are fine with Ukraine losing then that is on them not the US. As much as I want the US to give more guns and money to Ukraine, if we don't do it then Europe must. We shouldn't have to bear the brunt of Europe's failures just because European countries want to keep defense spending below 2%.

It's both. We're part of NATO and were a big reason for the general demilitarization of Europe.

[F250 28781]

1 hour ago, texastough said:

Since they have almost used up the T-55 tanks, ancient field guns, Mosin-Nagants, next up is potato guns. The only problem with that is since they can't feed their troops either, they would eat up all the ammo.

No. Those potatoes would be distilled into vodka.

[Sawbonz 27578]

3 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

That is a lot of troops to support and equip. How are they going to arm them?

[Macanudo 12989]

2 hours ago, texastough said:

Since they have almost used up the T-55 tanks, ancient field guns, Mosin-Nagants, next up is potato guns. The only problem with that is since they can't feed their troops either, they would eat up drink all the ammo.

 

[Parliament 14260]

4 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

That is a lot of troops to support and equip. How are they going to arm them?

Just like in WW2.  Give one man the Nagant, give two more one clip each, and send them running towards the line.  Fate will take care of the rest.

2 hours ago, texastough said:

The only problem with that is since they can't feed their troops either...

The book, "One Soldier's War" has was mentioned about a thousand pages back.  Russians fighting in Chechnya ate stray dogs.  Literally. 

[Armybrat 40851]

2 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:

It's both. We're part of NATO and were a big reason for the general demilitarization of Europe.

There certainly was wide spread consensus about disarming the Germans & Italians. In 1945.

[F250 28781]

16 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

There certainly was wide spread consensus about disarming the Germans & Italians. In 1945.

After WW II we "Reek'd" Germany and Japan's warrior cultures.

Edited March 21 by F250

[956 Worldwide 34715]

Most of Europe is going the right way but the capacity has atrophied in a real way.  The West made some strategic choices that are coming back to bite us. 
 

My blistering hot take is that the United States should be the one to step up because we can easily do it without breaking a sweat and because it’s the right thing and because it’s good for us if Russia loses.  

[956 Worldwide 34715]

Oh, and we painstakingly crafted this entire continent that used to be home to major powers and the epicenter of war and turned it into our own little client kingdom of wealthy people and tourist attractions.  And the people there actually like it. Lol, yes we need to defend our empire against possible barbarian aggression. 

[Schulz2.0 28960]

https://amp.abc.net.au/article/103613778

[Schulz2.0 28960]

 

 

[Gatorubet 30246]

8 hours ago, Viper said:

This new group won’t match the caliber of the conscripts from two years ago. 

[atomheartbevo 89730]

25 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

This new group won’t match the caliber of the conscripts from two years ago. 

They won’t match the caliber of those conscripted a year ago.  These next conscriptions are going to have a lot of the guys that were not deemed as fit/able-bodied a year or two ago.

[Grande Mart 517]

when bodies on one side are worth less than bullets on the other side

[Gatorubet 30246]

31 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

They won’t match the caliber of those conscripted a year ago.  These next conscriptions are going to have a lot of the guys that were not deemed as fit/able-bodied a year or two ago.

Unless they finally pull from St. Petersburg and Moscow. But I still don’t see it.

[NorthLoop 14215]

6 hours ago, Sawbonz said:

It's a funny meme but that's exactly what Putin is envisioning here. 

[texastough 1129]

I refuse to believe this for now. It doesn't seem to make sense and would be classic russian disinfo. But fuck me if true

Maybe should go in the CR thread . . .

[Schulz2.0 28960]

 

 

[KYHorn 17076]

46 minutes ago, texastough said:

I refuse to believe this for now. It doesn't seem to make sense and would be classic russian disinfo. But fuck me if true

Maybe should go in the CR thread . . .

 

 

[Schulz2.0 28960]

 

 

[KYHorn 17076]

 

[Schulz2.0 28960]

20 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

 

 

So people don't think that rising energy prices is bad for the US and European economies? That it doesn't play into the Russian propaganda being spread that the continuing of the war and Russian sanctions is only hurting every day people? Hitting Russian refineries can be a move that hurts Russian finances, but also helps the narratives set by Russia and pro-Russia politicians in Europe and the US.

[Schulz2.0 28960]

 

[KYHorn 17076]

8 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

 

 

 

Air defenses seem to be struggling. Ammo running low or gaps in the defense?

[Schulz2.0 28960]

7 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

 

Air defenses seem to be struggling. Ammo running low or gaps in the defense?

They don't have enough air defense to protect everything. Russia has consistently got some missiles through when launching the huge waves overnight.

[Parliament 14260]

2 hours ago, texastough said:

I refuse to believe this for now. It doesn't seem to make sense and would be classic russian disinfo. But fuck me if true

Maybe should go in the CR thread . . .

I'm gonna go ahead and say it's propaganda bullshit.

[statsman 5472]

WSJ article just says Washington has requested they not do anything to drive up energy costs. 
 
https://www.wsj.com/world/zelensky-criticizes-u-s-military-aid-delays-as-russia-strikes-power-plants-957342b4?st=vpt2egp5hlzsavt&reflink=mobilewebshare_permalink

[Dahobbs 17625]

34 minutes ago, statsman said:

WSJ article just says Washington has requested they not do anything to drive up energy costs. 
 
https://www.wsj.com/world/zelensky-criticizes-u-s-military-aid-delays-as-russia-strikes-power-plants-957342b4?st=vpt2egp5hlzsavt&reflink=mobilewebshare_permalink

Honestly, as a short term strategy until elections, that's probably in Ukraine's best interest. But it'd be a hell of a lot easier for us to ask that if we were actually providing significant aid right now. 

Edited March 22 by Dahobbs

[Schulz2.0 28960]

 

 

[Foosters 17858]

1 hour ago, statsman said:

WSJ article just says Washington has requested they not do anything to drive up energy costs. 
 
https://www.wsj.com/world/zelensky-criticizes-u-s-military-aid-delays-as-russia-strikes-power-plants-957342b4?st=vpt2egp5hlzsavt&reflink=mobilewebshare_permalink

This is the only reference to that in the article:

Quote

By attacking Russia’s energy heartland, Ukraine has been forced to balance different pressures from Western allies. On the one hand, military advisers from the West have since the early days of the war encouraged Kyiv to target the logistical operations on which Russia’s war machine relies. Yet at the same time, Kyiv has fielded requests to not do anything that could drive up global energy prices.

Gonna need to see a cite on that. And not just a link to the FT article from the "Ukrainians are Nazis" guy.

[PTINS 3472]

3 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:

So people don't think that rising energy prices is bad for the US and European economies? That it doesn't play into the Russian propaganda being spread that the continuing of the war and Russian sanctions is only hurting every day people? Hitting Russian refineries can be a move that hurts Russian finances, but also helps the narratives set by Russia and pro-Russia politicians in Europe and the US.

 

43 minutes ago, statsman said:

WSJ article just says Washington has requested they not do anything to drive up energy costs. 
 
https://www.wsj.com/world/zelensky-criticizes-u-s-military-aid-delays-as-russia-strikes-power-plants-957342b4?st=vpt2egp5hlzsavt&reflink=mobilewebshare_permalink

Ukraine does not have enough artillery and offensive weapons to fight the fight they were fighting a year ago. When the US was leading an international wave of support for Ukraines defense, Ukraine towed the line (US preference) on hitting "military targets."

Ukraine systematically targeted the smallish fuel depots and terminals close to the front lines and stayed away from the the heart of the energy complex, the refineries themselves.

Basically, Its okay to fight back against Russia, as long as gasoline prices in the US stay within an acceptable range. Yeah, I know we sanctioned Russia's petroleum and refined product exports (wink. wink.), but its keeping the US in their comfort zone.

Now, 

Akash Maniam, MD 🇺🇦
@ManiamAkash
"Ukraine's fighting an existential war and the US is playing politics in an election year. What an utter farce."

Ukraine cannot adequately defend themselves, much less prosecute a war effort that allows them to reclaim there Country. 

With the US sitting on their hands watching from the cheap seats, Ukraine is fighting the only war they can, which is directionally to cripple Russia's war machine. Period.

That would be their energy production.  Not storage tanks, but the refineries.

Ukraine is fighting for survival. If the collateral damage is rising energy prices Worldwide, ... umm...OK. Now the rest of the world can appreciate what is happening. Oil, and the refined products derived from the production, are a worldwide commodity that is affected my a multitude of factors.

This is the issue that drove American & British foreign policy for the past 100 years, to have control, or at least influence, on worldwide oil production.

The Shale Revolution allowed the US to become self sufficient in energy production (~ 14 MM bbl/day) for the first time since ... not my lifetime at least? While the US is self sufficient in production, we export 4-5 MM bbl/day and import ~ 2.5 MM bbl/day. We export the lighter shale crude oil, which looks like Quaker State out of the can, and import the heavier, nastier crude oil that looks like Jed Clampett's back yard.  The US refining capacity was converted from a light crude slate to a heavy crude slate 20-40 years ago, and that mix is required to maximize the production from US refineries, gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, etc.

We import oil, some to balance US demand, and some for the sole purpose of exporting refined products.

Odds are the delicate balance between production, refining and consumption is getting ready to be challenged in a way most have not envisioned.

[Schulz2.0 28960]

23 minutes ago, PTINS said:

 

Ukraine does not have enough artillery and offensive weapons to fight the fight they were fighting a year ago. When the US was leading an international wave of support for Ukraines defense, Ukraine towed the line (US preference) on hitting "military targets."

Ukraine systematically targeted the smallish fuel depots and terminals close to the front lines and stayed away from the the heart of the energy complex, the refineries themselves.

Basically, Its okay to fight back against Russia, as long as gasoline prices in the US stay within an acceptable range. Yeah, I know we sanctioned Russia's petroleum and refined product exports (wink. wink.), but its keeping the US in their comfort zone.

Now, 

Akash Maniam, MD 🇺🇦
@ManiamAkash
"Ukraine's fighting an existential war and the US is playing politics in an election year. What an utter farce."

Ukraine cannot adequately defend themselves, much less prosecute a war effort that allows them to reclaim there Country. 

With the US sitting on their hands watching from the cheap seats, Ukraine is fighting the only war they can, which is directionally to cripple Russia's war machine. Period.

That would be their energy production.  Not storage tanks, but the refineries.

Ukraine is fighting for survival. If the collateral damage is rising energy prices Worldwide, ... umm...OK. Now the rest of the world can appreciate what is happening. Oil, and the refined products derived from the production, are a worldwide commodity that is affected my a multitude of factors.

This is the issue that drove American & British foreign policy for the past 100 years, to have control, or at least influence, on worldwide oil production.

The Shale Revolution allowed the US to become self sufficient in energy production (~ 14 MM bbl/day) for the first time since ... not my lifetime at least? While the US is self sufficient in production, we export 4-5 MM bbl/day and import ~ 2.5 MM bbl/day. We export the lighter shale crude oil, which looks like Quaker State out of the can, and import the heavier, nastier crude oil that looks like Jed Clampett's back yard.  The US refining capacity was converted from a light crude slate to a heavy crude slate 20-40 years ago, and that mix is required to maximize the production from US refineries, gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, etc.

We import oil, some to balance US demand, and some for the sole purpose of exporting refined products.

Odds are the delicate balance between production, refining and consumption is getting ready to be challenged in a way most have not envisioned.

The US is tight on refining capacity, but this should help. The BP Whiting refinery in Indiana (440k bpd) is back online.

https://apnews.com/article/bp-whiting-oil-refinery-power-outage-shutdown-f528311f60d0312c9f26bf4c4c822a41

The problem is oil and refined products are global commodities. Russia will use high oil and refined products prices in Europe to further weaponize the politics there.

[956 Worldwide 34715]

In Moscow armed men cut lose with automatic weapons and have killed up to a dozen at a concert hall/shopping mall.

Reminder that the U.S. Embassy warned about the potential for attacks recently.  I will not believe this is anything but Russian authorities doing a replay of the apartment bombings absent compelling counter-evidence.

 

 

[Macklemore 2872]

48 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

In Moscow armed men cut lose with automatic weapons and have killed up to a dozen at a concert hall/shopping mall.

Reminder that the U.S. Embassy warned about the potential for attacks recently.  I will not believe this is anything but Russian authorities doing a replay of the apartment bombings absent compelling counter-evidence.

 

 

My guess it’s Islamic terrorism  The question is who is behind it. 

Edited March 22 by Macklemore

[956 Worldwide 34715]

Death toll in Moscow reportedly up to 40 and hundreds injured.  Also reports that 4/5 gunmen escaped.