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Kharkiv may backfire on Putin and not just because a lot of Russian hardware is being destroyed - it's being used to justify using seized Russian assets to aid Ukraine.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/13/europe/blinken-kyiv-ukraine-us-support-intl-hnk/index.html

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Blinken committed to helping Ukraine build its “force of the future” and reiterated that the US intends to make use of seized Russian assets to provide funding to Ukraine for their reconstruction. “Our Congress has given us the power to seize Russian assets in the United States. We intend to use it,” said Blinken during the speech. “What Putin destroyed, Russia should and must pay to rebuild.”

Blinken said the US is working with other G7 countries to do the same with “Russia’s immobilized sovereign assets.” “The G7 can unlock billions of dollars and send a powerful message to Putin that time is not on his side,” said Blinken without giving a timeline for when these efforts might be realized.

Quote

Western leaders have reacted with concern to Russia’s new and unexpected assault in Kharkiv. UK Foreign Secretary David Cameron acknowledged it was an “extremely dangerous” moment in the war, telling Sky News that Russia had effectively “invaded [Ukraine] again.”

 

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Posted (edited)

Full footage of the clash between Ukrainian border guards from Frozen Group and Russian invaders in Kharkiv Oblast on 10 May. A shorter episode emerged yesterday. 

They repelled a Russian attack on their positions and withdrew successfully, although somewhat struggled to find directions at first. Everyone survived.

Added subtitles where possible.

 


 

Edited by KYHorn
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 https://united24media.com/latest-news/estonia-considers-sending-troops-to-support-ukraine-in-non-combat-roles-318

Estonia Considers Sending Troops to Support Ukraine in Non-Combat Roles

MAY 14, 2024 15:07

Estonia’s government has engaged in “serious” discussions regarding sending troops to western Ukraine. These forces would assume non-combat, logistical roles to free up Ukrainian soldiers for frontline combat, stated Estonian National Security Advisor Madis Roll.

Roll’s remarks followed statements from the head of Estonia’s Armed Forces, General Martin Herem, who previously said that there were internal military discussions months ago regarding the potential deployment of troops to western Ukraine for roles such as medical services, logistics, or air defense in certain western cities.

Madis Roll emphasized their preference for a NATO-led mission “to show broader combined strength and determination”. However, he left open the possibility of collaborating with a smaller coalition.

“Discussions are ongoing,” Security Advisor said. “We should be looking at all the possibilities. We shouldn’t have our minds restricted as to what we can do.”

Roll, speaking on May 10, pointed out that NATO members currently opposed to troop deployment might reconsider their stance over time, saying that this scenario is “not unthinkable as time goes on”.

This follows Lithuanian Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė expressing the willingness to send Lithuanian troops to Ukraine for training purposes.

“If we just thought about the Russian response, then we could not send anything. Every second week you hear that somebody will be nuked”, said Šimonytė.

The potential deployment of Western troops to Ukraine has opened the door to a debate, ignited by the French President Emmanuel Macron’s comments, suggesting such a course of action might be necessary in the future.

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2 hours ago, KYHorn said:

Full footage of the clash between Ukrainian border guards from Frozen Group and Russian invaders in Kharkiv Oblast on 10 May. A shorter episode emerged yesterday. 

They repelled a Russian attack on their positions and withdrew successfully, although somewhat struggled to find directions at first. Everyone survived.

Added subtitles where possible.

 

Holy shit the red flags in that footage. Those guys need retrained. Firing over guys in front of you? Hell no, never. Not getting the heavy gun unjammed. Just fuck it? Get your ass in there and make the mother work! Ukes need to get their shit tight, asap.

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Posted (edited)
22 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

Hold on to your butts... No telling where this goes and who gets blamed for what...

 

 

 

 The first minutes after the attack on Robert #Fico - the prime minister's security guards evacuate him to his motorcade while eyewitnesses hold the shooter According to preliminary information from Slovak media, Fico was shot multiple times. One to the abdomen, one to the head. He's in serious condition.

Edited by KYHorn
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21 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

Hold on to your butts... No telling where this goes and who gets blamed for what...

 

 

Fico has been accused of being pro-Putin or at least soft on Ukraine's defense, yes? Not saying it's justified...AT ALL..I'm just trying to think through some geopolitical consequences if this attempt relates to the war or his stance on it.

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Just now, bolverk said:

Fico has been accused of being pro-Putin or at least soft on Ukraine's defense, yes? Not saying it's justified...AT ALL..I'm just trying to think through some geopolitical consequences if this attempt relates to the war or his stance on it.

I wouldn’t go as far as saying pro-Putin but he has been very leery about any potential escalation of the conflict from an Ukraine/Russia war to a full on NATO/Russian war. I don’t agree with his stance, but I can understand it due to Slovakia’s location.  NATO member or not, they are one of the small fish that conceivably see a war on their doorstep and a large potential for civilian casualties in a conventional engagement.

 

I disagree because appeasement has never been shown to be a successful longterm strategy, but I understand the argument.

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Just now, Laxtonto said:

I wouldn’t go as far as saying pro-Putin but he has been very leery about any potential escalation of the conflict from an Ukraine/Russia war to a full on NATO/Russian war. I don’t agree with his stance, but I can understand it due to Slovakia’s location.  NATO member or not, they are one of the small fish that conceivably see a war on their doorstep and a large potential for civilian casualties in a conventional engagement.

 

I disagree because appeasement has never been shown to be a successful longterm strategy, but I understand the argument.

Yeah, I largely agree with all of that. I was just trying to remember who the guy is and how 956 had described him a bit like an Orban-lite or aligned with him, creating an Eastern European shitbird tripartite made up of Hungary, Serbia, and Slovakia. I'm wondering how this attempt will get spun in light of that, especially as the EU is holding its parliamentary elections next month.

Will this get portrayed as the "intolerant West" trying to take out a true man of the people and hero of the Slavs kind of shit?

 

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24 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

https://united24media.com/latest-news/estonia-considers-sending-troops-to-support-ukraine-in-non-combat-roles-318

Estonia Considers Sending Troops to Support Ukraine in Non-Combat Roles

MAY 14, 2024 15:07

Estonia’s government has engaged in “serious” discussions regarding sending troops to western Ukraine. These forces would assume non-combat, logistical roles to free up Ukrainian soldiers for frontline combat, stated Estonian National Security Advisor Madis Roll.

Roll’s remarks followed statements from the head of Estonia’s Armed Forces, General Martin Herem, who previously said that there were internal military discussions months ago regarding the potential deployment of troops to western Ukraine for roles such as medical services, logistics, or air defense in certain western cities.

Madis Roll emphasized their preference for a NATO-led mission “to show broader combined strength and determination”. However, he left open the possibility of collaborating with a smaller coalition.

“Discussions are ongoing,” Security Advisor said. “We should be looking at all the possibilities. We shouldn’t have our minds restricted as to what we can do.”

Roll, speaking on May 10, pointed out that NATO members currently opposed to troop deployment might reconsider their stance over time, saying that this scenario is “not unthinkable as time goes on”.

This follows Lithuanian Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė expressing the willingness to send Lithuanian troops to Ukraine for training purposes.

“If we just thought about the Russian response, then we could not send anything. Every second week you hear that somebody will be nuked”, said Šimonytė.

The potential deployment of Western troops to Ukraine has opened the door to a debate, ignited by the French President Emmanuel Macron’s comments, suggesting such a course of action might be necessary in the future.

 

By my count, Estonia, France, Lithuania, and the UK have now all expressed a willingness to send troops to Ukraine if necessary. I'm surprised the Poles haven't chimed in yet, or have they?

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51 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Yeah, I largely agree with all of that. I was just trying to remember who the guy is and how 956 had described him a bit like an Orban-lite or aligned with him, creating an Eastern European shitbird tripartite made up of Hungary, Serbia, and Slovakia. I'm wondering how this attempt will get spun in light of that, especially as the EU is holding its parliamentary elections next month.

Will this get portrayed as the "intolerant West" trying to take out a true man of the people and hero of the Slavs kind of shit?

 

CNN.com story here says he's extremely tight with Orban and is very pro-Putin in the Ukraine/Russia conflict.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/15/europe/slovakia-prime-minister-fico-shooting-intl/index.html

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Posted (edited)

Former Senator Rob Portman (R) recently wrote a piece detailing a plan for victory for Ukraine in anticipation of the Biden admin's plan that is required by the recent Ukraine/Israel/Taiwan aid. I don't think it goes far enough, as it's essentially a list of weapons and systems everyone here knows about, but it's a fairly brief read that is important, if nothing else, because of the political side he comes from. 

https://thedispatch.com/article/a-plan-for-victory-in-ukraine/?utm_source=ActiveCampaign&utm_medium=email&utm_content=Russia Opens Up New Front in Northeastern Ukraine&utm_campaign=The Morning Dispatch_Paid Subscribers Only_Russia Opens Up New Front in Northeastern Ukraine#comments

A Plan for Victory in Ukraine

Congress wants a strategy for Ukraine to win, not merely survive. The administration should embrace it.

By Rob Portman

 

Spoiler

A Plan for Victory in Ukraine

Congress wants a strategy for Ukraine to win, not merely survive. The administration should embrace it.

By Rob Portman

May 9, 2024

image.png.6f7e8b316cda7a7929bc78881897bf71.png 

An M142 HIMARS launches a rocket on a Russian position from an unspecified location in Ukraine on December 29, 2023. (Photo by Serhii Mykhalchuk/Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images)

One of the most consequential parts of the recently passed supplemental aid package for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan is a little-noticed provision that requires the Biden administration to submit a strategy to Congress regarding U.S. support for Ukraine. Notably, for the first time since Russia’s full-scale invasion began, the Biden administration will be mandated to present an assessment “of the resources required … to help hasten Ukrainian victory against Russia’s invasion forces.”

Although a loud minority of lawmakers opposes any aid to Ukraine, this requirement in the legislation reflects a bipartisan concern of many in Congress that the administration’s oversensitivity to “escalation” has restricted the provision of more effective weapon systems Ukraine has requested and has limited the use of some U.S. weapons provided, contributing to Ukraine’s disadvantage on the battlefield and the current bloody stalemate. The new law makes clear that Congress wants a plan for Ukraine to win, not merely survive. The administration should embrace it.

Section 504 of the supplemental mandates “a classified independent assessment from the Commander, U.S. European Command, describing any specific defense articles and services not yet provided to Ukraine that would result in meaningful battlefield gains” within 45 days. Having heard from U.S. commanders in congressional briefings—and in Germany and Poland during a dozen or more trips to Ukraine—I’m confident that if the Biden administration allows military judgment to prevail, its response will point the way to breaking the stalemate in Ukraine’s favor.

With the correct approach, the administration has an opportunity to give Ukraine an advantage on the battlefield and bring this unprovoked, illegal, and brutal Russian attack to an end, forcing Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table from a position of weakness. Investing in Ukraine’s capabilities on the battlefield will help create leverage that both the United States and Ukraine will need in those eventual peace talks. 

Among the opponents of providing assistance to Ukraine are those who cling to unrealistic and convenient arguments that somehow, if America pulls back, Vladimir Putin will come to the bargaining table, and Ukraine can remain a free, independent democracy. There is simply no evidence in the history of aggression by dictators or in the words or deeds of Vladimir Putin to support this argument. Russia’s best theory of victory in this war depends on the exhaustion of America’s support for Ukraine. Pulling back our assistance will only help fulfill Putin’s dreams of conquest and empire.

The only realistic way to end the conflict is to provide Ukraine with the weapons it needs to win on the battlefield and inflict enough pain on Russia that a favorable settlement is possible. Approving one or two badly needed weapons in small numbers, after long delays, has not had the battlefield impact Ukraine needs. Rather, the Biden administration must redouble our coordination with our European allies to provide a suite of capabilities that can be employed together to achieve maximum results.

Putin will come to the table in good faith only when he knows that he cannot wait us out. I agree that European allies can do more to support Ukraine’s war effort, although they have actually contributed more than many Americans may realize. With the passage of the new supplemental funding bill, total U.S. commitments are now about $173 billion. As a bloc, the European Union’s total assistance commitments to Ukraine currently stand at roughly $155 billion. Even so, American leadership is essential to sustaining this progress and making European military assistance, in particular, more impactful and durable. 

At this point, I believe the U.S. commitment to move quickly to provide Ukraine with the weapons it needs and the training to use them effectively is just as important as the dollar amount of aid provided. The same scenario has played out time and time again: Ukraine requests a particular weapon, the Biden administration initially says no, then eventually provides it after months—or years—of bipartisan congressional pressure. Inevitably, the weapon quickly makes a significant difference: Stinger missiles early in the conflict, HIMARS two years ago, and longer-range ATACMS missiles more recently. Think of all of the lives that could have been saved if we had provided those weapons systems earlier.

Russia’s air force is currently bombarding civilian targets every day, and Ukraine needs F-16 fighter jets as soon as possible to stave off those attacks. But that requires more than just supplying U.S. planes: It means expediting and expanding the training already underway, as well as the issuing of licenses to allies around the world who are willing and able to provide such aircraft to Ukraine but need our permission. Based on recent reports, it seems that operational F-16s will be slowly trickling into Ukraine later this year, meaning that they may not make a significant impact until at least 2025. Sadly, this is emblematic of the administration’s slow-walking of assistance to Ukraine. Had the administration acted sooner, F-16s would already be protecting Ukraine’s skies against the deadly Russian attacks on civilians and infrastructure.

On the ground, Ukraine needs tanks to punch through Russian lines and retake territory. Some American M1A1 Abrams tanks have been provided, along with British Challengers and a larger number of German Leopards. They have proven effective, but there are not enough. After more than a year of stalling, the United States only provided about 31 tanks—a token gesture seemingly designed to pressure the Germans into providing Leopards. We have hundreds more that could be routed to Ukraine from allies or our own stocks. 

One of the biggest sticking points has been long-range missiles capable of striking critical logistics and command nodes behind Russian lines. Ukraine has asked for them for two years, and reports indicate that the U.S. has supplied a small number of such missiles. More ATACMS missiles and other long-range missiles are desperately needed. In fact, Congress included an explicit requirement in the supplemental that the administration provide more of these missiles. But the administration currently places onerous conditions on their use out of concern of escalation. British Foreign Minister David Cameron’s recent announcement that the United Kingdom would allow Ukraine to use UK-supplied long-range Storm Shadow missiles against Russian territory is a welcome development, and the U.S. should follow it. Russia has attacked Ukraine from Russian territory since Day 1. The administration must allow Ukraine to defend itself.

Next, Ukraine’s air defense needs to be bolstered immediately. Ukraine needs long-range air defense systems, like Patriots, to defend against the Russian- and North Korean-made ballistic missiles and Iranian-made drones raining down on Ukrainian cities. America’s enemies have redoubled their support for Russia’s terror-bombing campaign, so America and our allies must unite to stop it. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg noted recently that NATO countries have the spare capacity to provide more air defense missiles; all that’s needed is the political will to do so. This is also true for short-range air defense systems to defend against both the ubiquitous Russian drones as well as Russian strike aircraft near the frontlines, which have taken advantage of Ukrainian air defense missile shortages to significantly increase their deadly attacks.

In particular, Ukraine desperately needs more sophisticated electronic warfare (EW) systems to counter Russian “first-person view” or “kamikaze” drones. This new breed of relatively inexpensive but deadly drones has been used to devastating effect by both sides in this war, destroying vehicles and equipment that are orders of magnitude more expensive than the drones themselves. Bolstering Ukraine’s EW capabilities would enable it to disable and disorient more Russian FPV drones, thus better protecting Ukrainian forces and preserving their combat power for future offensive operations.

The administration should also increase the number of cluster munitions sent to Ukraine, particularly the 155mm dual-purpose improved conventional munition (DPICM). First provided in July 2023 following months of Ukrainian requests and pressure from Congress, DPICMs have been a major game-changer on the ground—often stopping Russian infantry assaults in their tracks. Originally built during the Cold War to counter the Soviet Union’s numerical superiority in artillery, the United States has about 3 million of these cluster munitions in storage and could easily send more. These would be invaluable to bolstering Ukraine’s low stockpiles of artillery ammunition and blunting future Russian assaults. 

A successful effort requires more than equipment and munitions: We cannot neglect the importance of training for Ukrainian soldiers. State-of-the-art equipment means little in the hands of ill-trained recruits, uncoordinated units, or poorly commanded armies. Ukraine recently passed a mobilization law to conscript thousands of new troops to refill its ranks and form new units for future offensive operations. Training these new conscripts to realistically prepare them for combat and teach them how to conduct complex offensive operations requires that the U.S. and its allies redouble their efforts. 

Finally, it is important to help Ukraine’s defense industry recover so it can eventually sustain its own needs. The Ukrainians have been remarkably innovative in adapting U.S.-provided equipment to suit the conditions and developing their own new capabilities, particularly in areas like drone warfare. Significant opportunities exist for U.S. companies willing to invest in Ukraine, and relevant agencies like the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) should be more aggressive in helping them do so. 

Through the recently passed supplemental, Congress made it clear, in bipartisan fashion, that it wants to hear from the Biden administration how to change the dynamic on the battlefield in Ukraine’s favor. All we need now is for the administration to follow this congressional intent “to hasten Ukraine’s victory against Putin’s war of aggression” by providing Ukraine the weapons it needs to win.

 

Edited by KYHorn
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Ukrainian troops strike Belbek military air base in Crimea

On the night of May 15, the Armed Forces of Ukraine attacked the Belbek military air base in temporarily occupied Crimea with ATACMS ballistic missiles.

Militarnyi reports on this, referring to local news sources.

At 2 a.m., Mikhail Razvozhayev, so-called governor of the temporarily occupied Sevastopol, claimed that Russian air defense started operating in the city.

Russian propagandist Fighterbomber (Ilya Tumanov) also confirmed the information on the missile attack.

The Russian Defense Ministry claimed that air defense intercepted 10 ballistic missiles.

Later, at 2:53 a.m., Razvozhayev reported that the attack was allegedly repelled, however, local Telegram channels started posting videos of a large fire and detonations at the Belbek military air base.

Besides, local residents published photos of M74 submunitions of the ATACMS missile that did not detonate.

In addition to eyewitness videos and photos, NASA’s fire monitoring service (this is a cool link. first saw this with the Panhandle fires.) confirmed the information on the large-scale fire at the air base.

image.thumb.png.c66d612ab386930bc8a5cdb938cceb80.png

A comparison of the coordinates of the fires with satellite images indicates that the strike hit the aircraft parking lot, but there is no confirmation of damage or destruction.

 

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24 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Social media has Fico being shot in the chest and head, but who knows.   He was airlifted to a hospital, which is known.

The chances of surviving gunshot wounds to both of those areas seems low.

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Reading through the comments on this post to see how Europeans are reacting, it looks like this news is already getting exploited (yes, I know the comment format on Reddit is fucked up. you can sort by "best" to get the good ones or "old" to read chronologically).

https://www.reddit.com/r/europe/comments/1cskdc9/slovakian_pm_fico_shot/

 

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"Just the facts" update on the assassination attempt:

Quote

 

Slovakia’s populist prime minister, Robert Fico, was shot and seriously wounded on Wednesday in what the government called an assassination attempt.

A post on the prime minister’s official and verified Facebook page said that Mr. Fico was in “life-threatening condition” after sustaining “multiple” gunshot wounds.

“The next few hours will decide,” the post said.

The exact nature of Mr. Fico’s injuries was not immediately known. There was no immediate comment from the police about the attack, which unfolded in the central Slovak town of Handlova and drew shock and condemnation from European officials.

A veteran politician, Mr. Fico has aligned with the Hungarian prime minister, Viktor Orban, in opposing aid to Ukraine and challenging mainstream opinions within the European Union.

On Wednesday, Mr. Orban was quick to send good wishes to Mr. Fico, whom he called “my friend.”

“We pray for his health and quick recovery,” Mr. Orban wrote on social media.

Mr. Fico returned to power after a general election in September, reviving a political career that many had considered over when he quit amid large street protests after the killing of an investigative journalist who had been looking into government graft.

In October, Mr. Fico said he was halting all military aid to Ukraine, but that nonmilitary aid would continue, in what would make Slovakia the first country that has sent weapons to Kyiv since the war started to say it would stop.

Here is what else to know:

  • Mr. Fico, a veteran politician, had held a government meeting in Handlova and then a nearly hour-long press conference. He was shot outside the venue while greeting supporters, local media reported.
  • The president of Slovakia, Zuzana Caputova, whose position is largely ceremonial, condemned what she described as a “brutal and reckless” assault. “I wish Robert Fico a lot of strength in this critical moment to recover from the attack,” she wrote on Facebook. European leaders also expressed shock over the attack.

 

 

 

 

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9 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

Contrary to the text of the tweet below, this is a pretty unclear answer here by Blinken regarding Ukraine striking in Russia with American weapons

 

 

That's probably the point. "I can't give you permission" *wink wink*

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Russian ties trying to kill Fico really doesnt make much sense. 

 

The guy wasnt a great friend to Ukraine, and seemed to lean towards the Russian sphere of influence.   If he dies, I dont think he gets replaced by an even more Russian backing PM. I dont think the country would allow that.

So this seems like an guy on the same political side, but pissed because Fico wasnt supporting Russian enough? '

kind of like the guy who killed Rabin in 95 because he was pissed that Rabin was trying to create a lasting peace.

 

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3 minutes ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

So Putin is now openly trying to assassinate other countries' leaders?  

Well he's been trying to assassinate the president of Ukraine for over 2 years now, so...

 

 

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i dont understand why we cant just sneak in a tomahawk (or 100) that we accidentally sold to Saudia Arabia 30 years ago and ooops it found its way to Ukraine and then every fucking Russian Airbase within 1500 Km of Ukrainian territory discovers them landing all at the same time one night. 

It seems like as long as no one attacks Moscow or St Pete with anything other than a 50lb drone, Putin and Russia are shrugging off everything else that hits them. 

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3 minutes ago, AUS-97HORN said:

i dont understand why we cant just sneak in a tomahawk (or 100) that we accidentally sold to Saudia Arabia 30 years ago and ooops it found its way to Ukraine and then every fucking Russian Airbase within 1500 Km of Ukrainian territory discovers them landing all at the same time one night. 

It seems like as long as no one attacks Moscow or St Pete with anything other than a 50lb drone, Putin and Russia are shrugging off everything else that hits them. 

Ukraine doesn't have anything to launch Tomahawks with. We're just now trying to rebuild an ability to have ground launched Tomahawks after scuttling our prior systems 30 years ago. I think we had a successful test either early this year or late last year. 

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8 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Ukraine doesn't have anything to launch Tomahawks with. We're just now trying to rebuild an ability to have ground launched Tomahawks after scuttling our prior systems 30 years ago. I think we had a successful test either early this year or late last year. 

Bro do you even potato gun? 

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Posted (edited)

Security didn't cover his ass after shots rang out - you can see him rolling over a bench.  I mean, at least they ran towards the guy with the gun, but somebody should have thrown themselves over him.

He's going to survive apparently

https://www.euronews.com/2024/05/15/slovak-prime-minister-fico-shot-in-life-threatening

Quote

Slovakia's deputy prime minister Tomáš Taraba says Robert Fico "is expected to survive" following an apparent assassination attempt at a political event on Wednesday.

Taraba told the BBC that the populist leader was shot multiple times.  "One bullet went through the stomach and the second one hit the joint. Immediately he was transported to hospital."

 

Edited by atomheartbevo
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Not that I am a master of security but dang did that seem too easy. As someone that finds the mental side of things fascinating, watching the pause in reaction from the security is fascinating. There’s a few seconds after the rounds are heard where you can see all of them trying to figure out what to do even as more shots are ringing out. Seemed like an awfully terribly planned public appearance but dang that gun was aimed at him for way toooooo long. Also, I see the stomach shot but where was the head shot, he got him while he was rolling on the ground? Lucky lucky shot 

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