Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[achooloco 1067]

9 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Security didn't cover his ass after shots rang out - you can see him rolling over a bench.  I mean, at least they ran towards the guy with the gun, but somebody should have thrown themselves over him.

He's going to survive apparently

https://www.euronews.com/2024/05/15/slovak-prime-minister-fico-shot-in-life-threatening

 

Looks like blue suit to his immediate right even runs away from getting shot. I would too, but I’m no secret service agent. 

[PTINS 3461]

19 hours ago, KYHorn said:

Contrary to the text of the tweet below, this is a pretty unclear answer here by Blinken regarding Ukraine striking in Russia with American weapons

 

 

[Brisketexan 105060]

2 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:

 

 

Oh....Russia.....PLEASE get entangled in Afghanistan again.  What could go wrong?

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[AUS-97HORN 11756]

pretty pissed that we as a country arent calling out Belarus straight up in the international community.

and by call out, I mean flat out tell them, if you continue to allow a foreign power to attack a sovereign country THROUGH your country, then by extension you are saying you are no longer a country, and just a vassal state to a terrorist run country and Poland can invade and play out their 1944 Warsaw revenge fantasies.

[bolverk 29653]

More discussion of possibly sending NATO troops to Ukraine.

As Russia Advances, NATO Considers Sending Trainers Into Ukraine
The move could draw the United States and Europe more directly into the war. The Biden administration continues to say there will be no American troops on the ground.

NATO allies are inching closer to sending troops into Ukraine to train Ukrainian forces, a move that would be another blurring of a previous red line and could draw the United States and Europe more directly into the war.

Ukraine’s manpower shortage has reached a critical point, and its position on the battlefield in recent weeks has seriously worsened as Russia has accelerated its advances to take advantage of delays in shipments of American weapons. As a result, Ukrainian officials have asked their American and NATO counterparts to help train 150,000 new recruits closer to the front line for faster deployment.

So far the United States has said no, but Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr., the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said on Thursday that a NATO deployment of trainers appeared inevitable. “We’ll get there eventually, over time,” he said.

For now, he said, an effort inside Ukraine would put “a bunch of NATO trainers at risk” and would most likely mean deciding whether to use precious air defenses to protect the trainers instead of critical Ukrainian infrastructure near the battlefield. General Brown briefed reporters on his plane en route to a NATO meeting in Brussels.

As a part of NATO, the United States would be obligated under the alliance’s treaty to aid in the defense of any attack on the trainers, potentially dragging America into the war.

The White House has been adamant that it will not put American troops, including trainers, on the ground in Ukraine, a position that an administration official reiterated on Thursday. The administration has also urged NATO allies not to send its troops.

But in February, President Emmanuel Macron of France said that “nothing should be ruled out” when it comes to sending Western troops to Ukraine. Mr. Macron has doubled down on his comment since, including after senior American diplomats asked him to stop.

The government of Estonia has not ruled out the possibility of sending troops to western Ukraine to take over rear roles that could free Ukrainian troops to go to the front, Estonia’s national security adviser said this week.

Lithuania’s foreign minister, Gabrielius Landsbergis, backed Mr. Macron’s stance in an interview with the The Guardian last week. “Our troops have been training Ukrainians in Ukraine before the war,” he said, adding, “So returning to this tradition might be quite doable.”

cont'd

Spoiler

The American military has done training for Ukrainian troops in Poland, Germany and the United States, but pulling troops out of Ukraine is time consuming. American officials now acknowledge that the current training by Ukrainian forces is not sufficient, and that they need better and faster training to push back on an expected Russian drive this summer.

The United States used to help run a NATO training program at Yavoriv, in western Ukraine, but American troops were pulled out from there at the start of the war.

American and allied training has not always been successful. Before a Ukrainian counteroffensive last summer, U.S. soldiers provided training in Germany to Ukrainian units on maneuver warfare, mine clearing and other tasks. But learning how to use tanks, artillery and infantry troops in a coordinated way is difficult, particularly in a short 12-week period. Compounding the problem is that Ukrainians are facing a battlefield far different and more intense than what American forces have fought on in recent years.

Moving the training into Ukraine, military officials acknowledge, would allow American trainers to more quickly gather information about the innovations occurring on the Ukrainian front lines, potentially allowing them to adopt their training.

NATO last month asked Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, the supreme allied commander for Europe, to come up with a way for the alliance to do more to help Ukraine that would mitigate risks. A U.S. official said on Wednesday that one possibility could be training Ukrainian troops in Lviv, near the country’s western border with Poland.

But Russia has already bombed Lviv, including a few weeks ago when Russian cruise missiles struck critical infrastructure there.

Some officials say that large numbers of new Ukrainian recruits might still be sent to sprawling training ranges in Germany and Poland.

But logistically that requires transporting the troops to the U.S. Army’s training grounds in Grafenwoehr, Germany, putting them through complex maneuvers meant to teach them combined arms warfare and then sending the troops nearly 1,000 miles through Lviv and then Kviv for deployment to the front lines.

“Remember, when Russia first invaded Crimea in 2014, we sent increased troop numbers into Ukraine to train Ukrainian forces in western Ukraine, and we kept rotating them in all the way to 2022, when we got spooked and withdrew them,” said Evelyn Farkas, the former top Pentagon official for Ukraine during the Obama administration. “It shouldn’t surprise anyone now, when manpower is in short supply at the Ukrainian front, that NATO members and the alliance leadership consider how to help again from the rear.”

Other NATO allies, including Britain, Germany and France, are working to base defense contractors in Ukraine to help build and repair weapons systems closer to the combat zone — what military officials have described as a “fix it forward” approach. Current and former U.S. defense officials said the White House is now reviewing its ban on allowing American defense contractors in Ukraine, although a small number have already been allowed in, under State Department authorities, to work on specific weapons systems like Patriot air defenses.

“There is an element of ally malpractice in the fact that we’re providing masses of Western equipment to Ukraine, but not giving them the resources to sustain it,” said Alexander S. Vindman, a retired Army lieutenant colonel and a Ukrainian-born American combat veteran.

 

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[atomheartbevo 89626]

If Russians are starting to take prisoners in large numbers again, and hide them away, that probably means the offensive is stalling and/or they are weakened and want some leverage against Ukrainian counter-attacks (they wouldn't be hauling prisoners around on an actual offensive).

Speaking of the missile strikes earlier

 

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Maxar is saying 2 Mig-31 interceptors, and a Su-27 were destroyed in the attack on Belbek. They believe a Su-29 was also damaged.

[B00M 6413]

47 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

 

It will be interesting to see how much effort Ukraine puts into training the convict units and how they’re integrated 

[atomheartbevo 89626]

3 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:

Maxar is saying 2 Mig-31 interceptors, and a Su-27 were destroyed in the attack on Belbek. They believe a Su-29 was also damaged.

CNN is saying three jets as well.  This is all going to force Russia to continue to push their air support back, and these jets are not replaceable either.  And with the refinery strikes, Russia will also have to redeploy even more anti-air from Ukraine back to Russia proper, which leaves Russian air assets in Crimea even more vulnerable. 

https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/17/europe/ukraine-satellite-images-crimea-belbek-jets-destroyed-intl-hnk/index.html

Satellite images exclusively obtained by CNN show three destroyed Russian jets and damaged buildings at Belbek airbase in occupied port city of Sevastopol on Wednesday.

The hardware losses come after two days of attacks by the Ukrainians on Sevastopol in Crimea, which was illegally annexed by Russia in 2014.

In images taken by US satellite imaging company BlackSky and space technology firm Maxar, two jets can be seen burned out on the main flight line at Belbek, in addition to a third parked on a protective embankment. The satellite images also show a destroyed building nearby and another which has taken significant damage.

Jets

Building:

[atomheartbevo 89626]

The rough math somebody did on the recent strikes

• 2x Mig-31 = 110 Mill
• Su-27 = 30 Mil
• Mig-29 = 12 Mil
• S-400 Radar + 2 TELs = 200+ Mil
• Total = 352+ Mil USD

Not bad for about 10 ATACMS about to expire.

[Schulz2.0 28951]

3 hours ago, B00M said:

It will be interesting to see how much effort Ukraine puts into training the convict units and how they’re integrated 

Hard to believe Ukraine would give them a decent amount of training. They don't have the manpower to consider troops expendable. 

[B00M 6413]

2 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:

Hard to believe Ukraine would give them a decent amount of training. They don't have the manpower to consider troops expendable. 

I hope they train them well and put thought into integrating them in a way that maximizes their impact … you know, like so many things in this war, do it the opposite of the way Russia does it

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[B00M 6413]

Is he dead or what?! 

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[PTINS 3461]

5 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:

 

Russian oil refinery in Tuapse halts operations after drone attack – Reuters
Rosneft's refinery in Tuapse, Krasnodar Krai, resumed operations only in late April after a drone attack in early 2024

Vira Kasiyan
news editor
MAY 17, 2024

 

TLDR  - (In the absence of factual information, I'll make some up.)

According to the agency's sources, the plant's liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) production unit was damaged.

"There was no black smoke during the fire. That means it was just the gas (LPG) burning," a source explained.

Black smoke is indicative of incomplete combustion.

Crude oil is heavy, long hydro-carbon chains, with a low vapor pressure that does not vaporize easily and gives off thick black smoke when burned (the vapor burns, not the liquid).

When crude is refined, (long hydro-carbon chains are broken into smaller chains), gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, etc are made. Diesel has similar characteristics to crude oil. Gasoline has a higher vapor pressure, ignites easily (explodes), and burns more rapidly.

The Natural Gas Liquids are by-products of refining (and Natural Gas Processing). Natural gas (a single carbon) & natural gas liquids  (LPG, have between 2-5 carbon atoms) are generally lighter than air. The C2 & C3 vaporize immediately on loss of pressure.  Propane (C3) vaporizes immediately on loss of pressure, but the vapor is heavier than air. It lays on the ground until it dissipates, or finds an ignition source.)  In a controlled environment, Natural gas (C1, methane), and C2 & C3 combust completely, without smoke.

The C4 & C5 vaporize dependent on the "ambient" temperature, but much more quickly when proximate to a fire. They C4 may or not smoke, and the C5 will probably always smoke.

In the US/western world, propane (C3) is used primarily for petro-chemical feedstock (to make plastics) and rural residential heating; in Russia, probably just as a feedstock, not sure of domestic fuel use. The C4 & C5 are used as pet-chem feedstock and for motor gasoline blending. If they cannot make the purity products, it probably gets used as fuel. 

The LPG unit, the towers (between 2 and 4) that separate the purity products, might have been hit and the initial blast with black smoke would have burned quickly and burned itself out with only limited residual vapors burning.  If the towers were damaged, the unit is down until replaced/repaired; not likely with sanctions in place.

The source believes the refinery could be restarted relatively quickly.

"The LPG unit can be bypassed and primary processing can resume. Some of the gas can remain in the oil up to the saturated vapor pressure limit, while the rest can be used for the refinery's own needs – in the refinery furnaces," the source said. 

Like the old days, when high vapor pressure NGL were kept in the motor gasoline stream, increasing volume (good) but blowing in your face when you unscrewed the gas cap (bad).  "Using the rest for refinery needs" means burning it as fuel.

The Tuapse refinery, one of Russia's oldest, was built in 1929 and has a capacity of 12 million tons of oil a year. It produces naphtha, fuel oil, vacuum gas oil and high-sulphur diesel fuel. Exports via the nearby oil terminal go to Turkey, China, Malaysia and Singapore.

In 2023, the Tuapse refinery processed 9.322 million tons of oil. *(~ 240,000 bbl/day capacity, similar to Conoco-Phillips in Lake Charles)

[KYHorn 17014]

Well done.

 

[atomheartbevo 89626]

 

[atomheartbevo 89626]

 

Tender has some things to say

When you look at Putin and his entourage in China, you just see a broken servant who asks for another bowl from his master. It is pathetic in so many ways. Russia, which was once calling the shots in East Asia and subverted and stole from Qing-China when dictating the Treaty of Aigun, is now the asking Beijing for help. It reminds us when Moscovia had to pay tribute to the Golden Horde back in the 14th Century. This is just a modern version of it.

You can say what you want, but Beijing plays it cards well. China holds Russia by the balls with iron grip and even in Russia many silently admit that this is an unequal "alliance", if at all. From a Chinese perspective, the infamous Unequal Treaties of the 19th Century have always been a thorn in the collective Chinese conscience, but while the British, Portuguese, German and Japanese imperial domains have been gone long ago, Russia is literally the only one who controls territory "acquired" from that time. Of course, officials from China and Russia will hastily point to the recent treaties both countries have signed concerning that matter, but Russia tries to establish a world where this is but ink on paper, being absolutely blindsided that Russia just only digged its own grave by having this powerful and hungry neighbor at its doorstep, who already uses Chinese names for Russia's far eastern territories and cities, such as Vladivostok. Just check out "Hǎishēnwǎi". That alone speaks volumes

The best joke, however, is that it is Russia and its lesser minions who claim that Western nations are colonies of the USA, but this is pure projection on their part. Russia is so dependent on China that the debt won't be repaid in a lifetime. Additionally, Russia's demographic catastrophe was even before the open war a headache for Moscow, but with the hundreds of thousands of dead Russians, as well as the even more wounded, but more importantly the million of Russians who abandoned their home country since February 2022, this will become the most unpayable mortgage any nation can handle. And the bank will come for you, not matter what, when you can't pay.

Chinese do take advantage of this situation, and honestly, I do not blame them. President Xi would be foolish not to do so. This one-sided partnership - at least at the moment - only brings advantages to China, on the expense of Russia. But even President Xi knows that China has severe weaknesses. China's housing crisis is an economic, nuclear time bomb, which could trigger a cascade of other problems. Demographically China is even more a mess than Russia. Only the large economic growth mitigated the problems, for now. But with the US Biden administration ratcheting up tariffs the US hit China where it hurts. It can go even more problematic when all Western nations decide that they will put any Chinese company as well as the Chinese banks behind it on sanctions lists, when they continue to help Russia in its war in Ukraine.

In the end, it is only a cost-benefit calculation which drives any leader in the world. The West has to put Russia into a situation where others will consider it too much of a risk and too expensive. Once Beijing sees the advantages outpaced by the incoming costs, this "partnership" - even when being unequal - will end from one day to another. When this will happen is primarily up to us in the West.

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[Schulz2.0 28951]

Looks like it's past time to seize Russian assets.

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[Armybrat 40822]

Good thing my granddaughter’s other grandpa sold his share of a partnership that was doing business in Russia during the late ‘90s.

He came away with millions 20 years ago, and his former partners now have zilch.

[Parliament 14239]

50 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

Good thing my granddaughter’s other grandpa sold his share of a partnership that was doing business in Russia during the late ‘90s.

He came away with millions 20 years ago, and his former partners now have zilch.

Give her my number.

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[Armybrat 40822]

12 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Give her my number.

Too late, she just got married two months ago.

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[Chad Fuck 17659]

Too late, she just got married two months ago.

Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?

[B00M 6413]

2 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:

 

what’s the difference between these missiles? 
 

hopefully this works better than the launchers they’ve put on the USVs that so far seem ineffective against the helicopters that are gunning them down 

[Armybrat 40822]

23 minutes ago, Chad Fuck said:

Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?

Actually it was almost over after the last dance at the wedding reception. 
Granddaughter was jumping around (after a few shots) to some Taylor Swift song and tore her knee up. 
Went on her honeymoon in a wheelchair and had surgery to repair it a month later.

 

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More drones hitting Crimea.

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[atomheartbevo 89626]

Gary Kasparov 8 months ago

[Gatorubet 30185]

10 hours ago, Armybrat said:

Too late, she just got married two months ago.

He’s not asking if she’s married, he’s just wondering if she’s a fanatic about it

[RPM 26316]

8 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

He’s not asking if she’s married, he’s just wondering if she’s a fanatic about it

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[Viper 12103]

9 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:

Fire Sale or...

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