Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[AUS-97HORN 11753]

2 minutes ago, Bevo said:

Not much. It was missing the logic behind his thoughts. Putin may use nukes if he becomes desperate. That could happen with a Ukraine victory or a Ukraine loss or if NATO becomes involved. It won't happen if Russia implodes from internal pressure. So our best option is destabilization of the region. We need to actively create issues in Moldova/Transnistria, the Stans, Bulgaria... 

i think your brain glitched. did you mean Belarus?

Bulgaria (and Romania) are Nato states and have been for 20 years.

I can absolutely 1000% promise you that Bulgaria is in fucking lockstep with Poland on the issue known as Fuck Russia. Ive been there, I have talked with the locals and I still have a few acquantances who live there.

The entire country hated the bullshit they went through with the Soviets, and to this day they are mortified that it was 2 Bulgarian's (at the behest of the KGB) who came damn close to assassinating Pope John Paul II. 

[Bevo 13539]

9 minutes ago, AUS-97HORN said:

i think your brain glitched. did you mean Belarus?

Correct

[DaggerHorns 3074]

1 hour ago, Steel Shank said:

What are the Surly experts' thoughts on the Zeihan video above? Specifically the idea of Putin using nukes if the win in Ukraine.

First, I would like to address the current situation. I believe that the U.S. had thought far ahead on a lot of this and we have planned a lot of this from the beginning. I think we’ve wanted to see a long slow burn on resources to now get to the point of using their own money to fuck them, deploying the f-16s, and green lighting uses of weapons on Russian soil.

To answer your question: sadly, I think we’ll see a nuke at some point. I saw GW Bush speak at the end of 2022. He basically said that he might do a tactical nuke, “like a cone in a controlled area….but why? He would ruin the land he wants to use.”

Unfortunately, I think we are at a point where we can’t control his tantrum of power. 1) if there’s a close war where Russia is running out of resources, he’ll use a juke to gain a large advantage and want Ukraine and the West to beaten into submission. 2) If Ukraine really starts whipping their ass, I think this pisses off Putin a lot and he pushes a button to get more bodies and then walks away.

No matter the case. I’ve said this before and seen many experts say it. Win or lose, this will be the end of the current regime. Russia does not come out of this stronger, wealthier, economically prosperous, more respect, military prowess, etc. Journalists from the beginning have called it a massive miscalculation. They’re right and all they do is write.

[Viper 12067]

Sounds like the green light to use weapons in Russia is paying dividends 

Edited June 2 by Viper

[MagicSoccerSpray 1732]

2 hours ago, Steel Shank said:

What are the Surly experts' thoughts on the Zeihan video above? Specifically the idea of Putin using nukes if the win in Ukraine.

 

I believe it's an old video. Russian Nukes best and highest use is as a bluff. I don't see them being used absent a complete state meltdown internally, or in Ukraine.

[atomheartbevo 89589]

2 hours ago, Steel Shank said:

What are the Surly experts' thoughts on the Zeihan video above? Specifically the idea of Putin using nukes if the win in Ukraine.

I don't think he would do it for the following reasons:

• It would clearly signal to the world that Putin/Russia is losing, which is an image he is constantly trying to thwart.
• Putin has no idea how the UN and NATO will react.  Right now, he knows how things play out, and he's in control even if he's not happy with the results on the battlefield.  Introducing a nuke into the equation introduces a whole lot of unknown variables that would terrify a control freak like him, including turning formerly neutral or even friendly nations against him.
• He had his proxies on Russian state TV trot the idea of nuking Ukraine or Western European nations out there, and nobody in the West really gave a shit, even though they named specific Western capitols.  Of course, they trotted it out there hoping it would act as a deterrent to us supplying Ukraine, but if anything, it made many in the West more determined to supply Ukraine.  It was the equivalent of little kids telling each other that their dad could beat the other kid's dad up - it's something that will never happen.
• He has invested a lot of time telling the Russian people that Ukrainians are simply brothers and sisters from another mother.  Nuking a people that he claims are actually Russians runs counter to that, and would make a lot of Russians lose their shit (many have relatives in Ukraine as well).
• There's no way that a tactical nuke will only affect Ukrainian military forces - it will kill a shit-ton of civilians or Russian forces, and there's no way a nuke's fallout in Ukraine will stay constrained to Ukrainian military buildups - based on how fucking inept the Russian military is at times,  it will drift into Russia proper, or over Russian troops, or into the Black Sea, or into NATO territory.
• Speaking on ineptness, if he tried a nuke and it backfired on him (exploded on launch, went off course, etc.) it would/could cause even more problems for him.
• It would roil the world's markets (financial, agricultural/food, etc.) like nobody's business, causing serious problems for China, India, the BRIC countries in general.
• Speaking of China, while they like to be agents of chaos at times, the kind of instability that would be caused by the introduction of nukes is not something they can tolerate at all. Same with India.  Russia can't afford China and India fully turning fully on them.
• Finally, Putin is scared of dying (probably thanks (in part) to his KGB background).  The man has body doubles, armored trains, hidden underground bunkers, big-ass tables, and when he visits a place for a photo op, surrounds himself with the same security personnel who masquerade as workers and locals at whatever place he's visiting. He knows that if he starts a nuke war, he becomes the #1 target for a whole lot of countries, as well as Russians who flip out over the nuke stuff.

There's a few other reasons, but those are the main ones I'd say.

[Sawbonz 27514]

36 minutes ago, MagicSoccerSpray said:

 

I believe it's an old video. Russian Nukes best and highest use is as a bluff. I don't see them being used absent a complete state meltdown internally, or in Ukraine.

We absolutely cannot let a nuclear device — even a so called tactical nuke — be used by Russia in an offensive manner. They know it. It would be the end of Moscow and maybe the world 

[atomheartbevo 89589]

We have more details regarding the perpetrator who assaulted Roderich Kiesewetter (@RKiesewetter).

He is close to the "Querdenker" group, basically the German version of Qanon. The police already has a file regarding him. And of course, it was about Roderich's strong stance in helping other nations, such as Ukraine. We all knew that it was about this, when the news hit.

I consider the assault against Roderich also a personal matter. Aside that I share many of his stances, I frequently wear the German-Ukrainian friendship pin. So far, never had any issues, instead only thumb ups. And even if it would be different, I would and will not be deterred. Again, please recover well, Roderich! Gute Besserung, Roderich!

[Schulz2.0 28940]

 

[DigglerontheHoof 21142]

23 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:

Russia is approaching U.S. casualty numbers for all of WWII.

US MILITARY CASUALTIES IN WORLD WAR II
 

Branch	Killed	Wounded
Army and Air Force	318,274	565,861
Navy	62,614	37,778
Marines	24,511	68,207
Coast Guard	1,917	Unknown
TOTAL	407,316	671,278

 

Never mind, misread the data.  Read the 671K as total casualties, not wounded. 

 

Edited June 2 by DigglerontheHoof

[Bevo 13539]

24 minutes ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

Russia is approaching U.S. casualty numbers for all of WWII.

US MILITARY CASUALTIES IN WORLD WAR II
 

Branch	Killed	Wounded
Army and Air Force	318,274	565,861
Navy	62,614	37,778
Marines	24,511	68,207
Coast Guard	1,917	Unknown
TOTAL	407,316	671,278

 

Never mind, misread the data.  Read the 671K as total casualties, not wounded. 

 

 

The US had 1,076,245 total casualties in WW2. That is about double the current number of casualties that Russia has incurred in Ukraine.

Edited June 2 by Bevo

[DigglerontheHoof 21142]

Just now, Bevo said:

 

WW2 had 1,076,245 total casualties. That is about double the current number of casualties that Russia has incurred in Ukraine.

yeah, that's why I added the edit that I had misread the numbers. 

[Schulz2.0 28940]

 

[Schulz2.0 28940]

 

[Schulz2.0 28940]

[Sawbonz 27514]

This may have been covered as this article was published over a year ago. It may not be feasible for Russia to expand its AF to 1.5M without adding  30 to 50 yo (or women, which in their society would not be acceptable), to the conscription rolls.
 

Drafting 1 in 10 men between 21 and 30 — the proposed new age range for mandatory service— would theoretically yield around 690k if 100% were fit for service. Another alternative mentioned is mass recruitment of young men from Central Asia for service in exchange for Russian citizenship.
 

What could possibly go wrong?

Russian Armed Forces Face Severe Demographic Challenges

[Schulz2.0 28940]

9 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

This may have been covered as this article was published over a year ago. It may not be feasible for Russia to expand its AF to 1.5M without adding  30 to 50 yo (or women, which in their society would not be acceptable), to the conscription rolls.
 

Drafting 1 in 10 men between 21 and 30 — the proposed new age range for mandatory service— would theoretically yield around 690k if 100% were fit for service. Another alternative mentioned is mass recruitment of young men from Central Asia for service in exchange for Russian citizenship.
 

What could possibly go wrong?

Russian Armed Forces Face Severe Demographic Challenges

They've been pulling in central Asians, Africans, and Cubans by throwing money at them.

[Bevo 13539]

1 minute ago, Schulz2.0 said:

They've been pulling in central Asians, Africans, and Cubans by throwing money at them.

Seems like Ukraine could do the same.

[immamac 42789]

Please post the whole text of tweets. A lot of people don't want to go to Twitter and they no longer expand without going there. 

[Sawbonz 27514]

35 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

 

Now that Ukraine is able to strike targets within Russia, I wonder how long before Russia hits a residential area in Russia and blames Ukraine?

18 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

They've been pulling in central Asians, Africans, and Cubans by throwing money at them.

Any idea on numbers?

[Parliament 14199]

49 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

 

And we see that, judging by the behavior of the enemy, it is preparing a serious counter-offensive blow in the Kharkiv direction."
 

fingers crossed

[PTINS 3457]

19 minutes ago, immamac said:

Please post the whole text of tweets. A lot of people don't want to go to Twitter and they no longer expand without going there. 

Thanks!!!

[Schulz2.0 28940]

11 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

Any idea on numbers?

Seems like they were rounding up a bunch of the central Asian immigrants and pressing them into service. The Cubans are around a few hundred. Haven't seen any estimates on Africans.

[Nivek 16913]

[mention=143]atomheartbevo[/mention] not sure I buy that the Russian people will find anything unacceptable. If Putin called them the master race, Russians wouldn’t even notice.

@Sawbones not sure they would care if women were conscripted. They would just bring up how they were the first to put a woman into space, and how their women are better fighters than western men. They would drop tradition for Putin. They dropped everything else.

[ABSR 5303]

1 hour ago, Sawbonz said:

This may have been covered as this article was published over a year ago. It may not be feasible for Russia to expand its AF to 1.5M without adding  30 to 50 yo (or women, which in their society would not be acceptable), to the conscription rolls.
 

Drafting 1 in 10 men between 21 and 30 — the proposed new age range for mandatory service— would theoretically yield around 690k if 100% were fit for service. Another alternative mentioned is mass recruitment of young men from Central Asia for service in exchange for Russian citizenship.
 

What could possibly go wrong?

Russian Armed Forces Face Severe Demographic Challenges

But you have to account in this equation for Russia already having lost 500k of men (killed or seriously wounded) and for them having about 1.3m still in the armed forces.   Some are outside the age range and some are foreigners, but overall the majority fall in that age group.  So they already have approximately 2.5 out of 10 already committed.   Then add more to get to 3.5-4 % of the men in that age group.    Definitely starting to need Moscow and St. Petersburg men.

[956 Worldwide 34664]

14 hours ago, Steel Shank said:

What are the Surly experts' thoughts on the Zeihan video above? Specifically the idea of Putin using nukes if the win in Ukraine.

I’ve been out of this thread as a mental break as I kind of live and breathe Ukraine non-stop. I do not believe that Putin would elevate to the use of nuclear weapons absent a compelling threat to Russia internationally recognized borders.  Crimea may be a somewhat gray zone. There is almost no battlefield sense and it would likely tilt the west in favor of intervening directly. 
 

The reason he threatens with them so much is because they are of little value militarily, their utility is in the threatening. 

[956 Worldwide 34664]

1 hour ago, Sawbonz said:

Now that Ukraine is able to strike targets within Russia, I wonder how long before Russia hits a residential area in Russia and blames Ukraine?

Any idea on numbers?

Marginal and mostly as a PR stunt, Russia remains dependent on its own base of manpower.  They do prefer to grab people from impoverished areas first. 

[Schulz2.0 28940]

2 hours ago, immamac said:

Please post the whole text of tweets. A lot of people don't want to go to Twitter and they no longer expand without going there. 

[Schulz2.0 28940]

 

[956 Worldwide 34664]

I was in Finland this week.  These coastal defense guns once were Russian and now they are Finnish.  Time to go get some more. 
 

[Brisketexan 104924]

Suomenlinna.  Super-cool place.  Coastal batteries, while outmoded....are still cool as shit.

[Gatorubet 30177]

3 hours ago, Nivek said:

[mention=143]atomheartbevo[/mention]
@Sawbones not sure they would care if women were conscripted. They would just bring up how they were the first to put a woman into space, and how their women are better fighters than western men. They would drop tradition for Putin. They dropped everything else.

It’s not like Soviet women didn’t fight in World War II. Think of the Night Witches

[Sawbonz 27514]

3 hours ago, Nivek said:

[mention=143]atomheartbevo[/mention] not sure I buy that the Russian people will find anything unacceptable. If Putin called them the master race, Russians wouldn’t even notice.

@Sawbones not sure they would care if women were conscripted. They would just bring up how they were the first to put a woman into space, and how their women are better fighters than western men. They would drop tradition for Putin. They dropped everything else.

 

14 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

It’s not like Soviet women didn’t fight in World War II. Think of the Night Witches

The article makes the distinction between protecting the homeland vs being pressed into service to fight a war of invasion. Honestly idk how the politics of that plays out but the authors seem to think it’s untenable 

[Nivek 16913]

It’s not like Soviet women didn’t fight in World War II. Think of the Night Witches

That was the point.

[Gatorubet 30177]

12 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

 

The article makes the distinction between protecting the homeland vs being pressed into service to fight a war of invasion

it becomes even muddier when the expressed reason for the Special Operation was to ‘protect the homeland’ from Nazi neighbors.  

Six of one…

[atomheartbevo 89589]

27 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

The article makes the distinction between protecting the homeland vs being pressed into service to fight a war of invasion. Honestly idk how the politics of that plays out but the authors seem to think it’s untenable 

13 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

it becomes even muddier when the expressed reason for the Special Operation was to ‘protect the homeland’ from Nazi neighbors.  

Six of one…

Putting aside that this will exacerbate their demographic problems, I don’t see how they touch women without first pulling a shitload of men out of Moscow and St Petersburg.  Plus, moms and widows were a huge factor in pressuring Moscow over Afghanistan, and I would imagine sending women off to get a couple of weeks of training, and then die on a Ukrainian battlefield will not go over well at all.  

Russia’s government tries to control what is on Russian social media, but stuff slips through and remains up long enough to be sent around. Imagine that video from a day or two ago of the guy being hunted by a drone, and now imagine it was a Russian woman.

Or hell, we’ve seen how the Russian men will fight/rape/kill other Russians as well as Ukrainian civilians, and now imagine introducing Russian women into the ranks of those men who probably don’t think they have long to live.  The Russian men will rape the shit out of the Russian female soldiers.

[Gatorubet 30177]

3 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

The Russian men will rape the shit out of the Russian female soldiers.

i’m sure it’s just their own war correspondents that they rape.  that whole resurrection thing means they get to rape again after they die. 

[Sawbonz 27514]

46 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

it becomes even muddier when the expressed reason for the Special Operation was to ‘protect the homeland’ from Nazi neighbors.  

Six of one…

I don’t think it will be muddy at all if they begin conscripting women. 

[Gatorubet 30177]

1 minute ago, Sawbonz said:

I don’t think it will be muddy at all if they begin conscripting women. 

Yeah, I totally agree with you, but that is not what I was implying.  I was trying to point out the ludicrous differentiation on what is ‘danger to Mother Russia’ per their own propaganda. 

[atomheartbevo 89589]

4 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

I’ve been out of this thread as a mental break as I kind of live and breathe Ukraine non-stop. I do not believe that Putin would elevate to the use of nuclear weapons absent a compelling threat to Russia internationally recognized borders.  Crimea may be a somewhat gray zone

Speaking Crimea, Ukraine is slowly but surely reducing the air defenses and logistics capabilities in and around Crimea (both the air defense systems and ships will be hard to replace), and when they decide to take the bridge out completely, then what?  Russia would be hard-pressed to be able to use Crimea in terms of military capabilities if they can’t resupply it or easily move units in and out. Any units there could not be deployed elsewhere.

And they are worried - they are putting in barricades around some of the major weak points of the bridge

 

Edited June 2 by atomheartbevo

[atomheartbevo 89589]

 

 

[Sawbonz 27514]

3 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

Yeah, I totally agree with you, but that is not what I was implying.  I was trying to point out the ludicrous differentiation on what is ‘danger to Mother Russia’ per their own propaganda. 

Sure. I think they tolerate the propaganda at this point not because it’s convincing but rather because it’s not worth going to Siberia to fight it. Mass conscription of women changes the calculus 

[atomheartbevo 89589]

HIMARS talk

 

[Gatorubet 30177]

14 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

[atomheartbevo 89589]

Anything happening in Georgia?  Seems like this stuff is continuing

 

[Gatorubet 30177]

34 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

Sure. I think they tolerate the propaganda at this point not because it’s convincing but rather because it’s not worth going to Siberia to fight it. Mass conscription of women changes the calculus 

I don’t think he will ever do that. That could cause him to lose his job. And in Russia, lose your job means a bullet in the brain.

[KYHorn 16971]

A Russian supply base in the industrial district of Shebekino, Belgorod Region, Russia, was wiped out this morning. In the debris field,  parts of a missiles can be seen. Russian propaganda initially claimed that a civilian market was hit, but the location is neither civilian nor the debris seen on the pictures. 

It proves that Ukrainian Forces are starting to destroy Russian military support bases for their incursion in Kharkiv Region.

Coordinates of the impacts:

50°24'38.61"N,  36°54'21.95"E

Source of pics: Telegram / Fonartv

 Russian S-300/400 air defence system battery was targeted by HIMARS in the Belgorod region of Russia: 

“The video shows the result of the strike on the S-300/400 air defense system in the Belgorod region.

The strike was carried out using the HIMARS MLRS.

Presumably, without casualties among personnel.

01-02.06.2024”

 

[KYHorn 16971]

"Denys Yaroslavsky, commander of a reconnaissance battalion in Ukraine’s 57th Brigade, entered the border town of Vovchansk on May 2, accompanied by four battalions of exhausted troops. Fresh from the battlefield in a different northeastern city, they soon realized their new positions were the first line of defense — and that only 200 troops were already stationed in the town.

When Russian forces pushed in just over a week later, he said, 'we lost almost the entire battalion.'"
@AlexHortonTX @siobhan_ogrady @michaelbirnbaum
@nakashimae Kostiantyn Khudov
washingtonpost.com/national-secur…

"Yaroslavsky and his reconnaissance battalion were hunkered down in Vovchansk just hoping to survive. That day, he said, his troops weathered an 'insane' number of glide bomb strikes — more than 40 in 24 hours."

"Kozhemyako, the founder of Khartia, also said his troops had suffered punishing hits as Washington deliberated the policy shift. Over the past 20 days, he said, they have come under 250 glide bomb strikes, attacks so powerful that even those who are not badly wounded or killed are often traumatized and concussed by the shock waves. After the airstrikes, Russian ground troops then storm their positions, he said."

Edited June 3 by KYHorn

[KYHorn 16971]

 

 First video I've seen of that destroyed convoy 

 

[KYHorn 16971]

Interview with English subtitles of 24 yo russian captured in North Karkhiv.

Out of 300, only 9 of them remained after a few days. He speaks of colossal losses, confusion and blocking troops. There are told to move forward no matter what.

When they arrive at the first UA village, it was empty. Then it was a rain of fire....