Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[Schulz2.0 28626]

 

 

[atomheartbevo 88912]

If I’m in a field where somebody sets a mine off, the last fucking thing I’m doing is taking off and running.

[Zonahorn 7921]

Looking forward to that goodwill gesture

[Zonahorn 7921]

Just a scratch

 

EDIT:

 

FUCK RUSSIA

Edited June 11 by Zonahorn

[Dahobbs 17180]

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

If I’m in a field where somebody sets a mine off, the last fucking thing I’m doing is taking off and running.

I figure the last thing anyone does after setting off a mine is take off running. Having your legs blown off makes that difficult apparently. 

[Deej 76156]

2 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

I figure the last thing anyone does after setting off a mine is take off running. Having your legs blown off makes that difficult apparently. 

Can still work on a shrimp boat.

[Zonahorn 7921]

 

Edited June 11 by Zonahorn

[Schulz2.0 28626]

[Schulz2.0 28626]

[Schulz2.0 28626]

 

 

[Schulz2.0 28626]

 

 

 

[atomheartbevo 88912]

Russian losses per 11/06/24 reported by the Ukrainian general staff

+1100 men

+23 tanks

+32 APVs

+46 artillery systems

+1 MLRS

+5 AD systems

+1 aircraft

+13 UAVs

Drone operators hunting down individuals  you can just see the desperation the Russians have.

 

[atomheartbevo 88912]

Europe stepping up even more.  Pre-2022, Russia’s yearly military budget was $60 billion

 

[atomheartbevo 88912]

 

Not only are we sending another Patriot battery or two, but Germany is as well, plus Germany,  Norway, Denmark, and The Netherlands are sending 100 total missiles (32 already there).

[KYHorn 16707]

More Indians killed in Russia. India has told Russia to stop recruiting its citizens, as many of them report bring tricked into fighting on the front line. I would've thought more countries would respond this way. Surely once they start dying this will backfire on Russia.

https://www.independent.co.uk/asia/india/indians-killed-russian-army-ukraine-war-b2561018.html

Two Indians killed fighting for Russian military in Ukraine

Spoiler

Two Indian men recruited by the Russian army have been killed in Ukraine, India’s foreign ministry said on Tuesday.

India said further recruitment of its nationals by Russia would "not be in consonance" with their bilateral partnership and demanded a “verified stop”.

The ministry urged its citizens to "exercise caution" while seeking employment in Russia amid reports that dozens of Indians had been duped by agents into fighting for the Russian military.

"We regret to state that two Indian nationals recruited by the Russian Army have recently been killed in the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine," the ministry said in a statement, without identifying them.

Russia has not made a statement. Randhir Jaiswal, spokesperson for India’s foreign ministry, said Moscow has been urged to quickly discharge and ensure the return of Indian nationals working for the Russian military.

He said around 20 people had sought help to return to their country.

The Indian embassy in Moscow has pressed the Russian defence ministry for early repatriation of the mortal remains of the two victims, Mr Jaiswal said.

Two Indian citizens were also killed fighting in Ukraine in March.

Mohammed Asfan, a clothes seller from Hyderabad city had travelled to Russia via Dubai in November seeking work, and ended up with the Russian military in Ukraine. His family claimed he had been “duped” by an agent in the Middle East and did not know he would be fighting on the frontline, where he was killed.

Hemil Ashvinbhai Mangukiya from Surat city was killed in a Ukrainian air strike.

The Hindu previously reported that more than 100 Indian nationals have been recruited in the Russian military to fight in the war zones, with many of them conned by agents into working as “army security helpers”.

In May, Indian police arrested four people allegedly linked to an international human trafficking ring involved in tricking workers into fighting in the Ukraine war by offering them lucrative jobs.

 

[hookem2010 2533]

On 6/10/2024 at 10:29 AM, Laxtonto said:

Just a few thoughts on this and the overall impact it has on the current situation. The air defenses and their use are the"canary in the coal mine" for the direction of the conflict for the near future.

There is definitely a limited supply and limited production.  This makes every system lost that much more of a big deal and leads to even more poignant decisions about placement and the value of what to protect.

The problem, in part, is the clash in the strategy of how you protect a front with overlapping overages for integrated air defense (ie Crimea) vs protecting a static high-value target (ie individual refineries or Moscow). To keep the integrated system up and running, you need a much higher density of systems in place to cover the same average area as that covered in a standalone placement.  So every system sent to protect other targets away from the front has a multiplicative impact. This becomes even more important when you are trying to protect from air sorties from sophisticated fighter aircraft instead of drones and "dumb" missiles.

So as they continue to lose systems, then they have to decide do they protect the economic and social targets well off the front, or the troops along a long continued front.  This is in part the beauty of their drone strikes and the changes it has pushed in the modern air defense strategy. These strikes are cheap assets to send from an offensive perspective that can force the opponent to tie up a very expensive very limited defensive resource to cover targets so far away from the front that they do not provide any real additive defensive value to the rest of the theater. Right now we are seeing Russia react to the cheap drones vs the various long-range missile systems. It becomes even more complicated when you mix in the F16s.

Right now, most of the integrated air defense is somewhat simplified because the shape of the operating theater in most places is about 100km deep in a forward-facing setting backed up against Russia or the Sea of Azov. This only gets complicated when you get S/W of Melitopol into Crimeia, where there are multiple avenues to approach. It is harder to defend when you have to pay attention in multiple directions with little backstop and have to place your systems within the Ukraine vs. in  Russia where they have been protected by an ordnance use order.

In the near term, the strikes on these systems are great just to see Russia have to play the "rob Peter to pay Paul" resource scarcity game. It becomes obvious to everyone who/what values more depending on where they place these limited assets. Long-term, the continued strikes on the air defense systems are really all just prep for the F16's arrival this summer.  But this is one of those times where you can run with the "why not both" gif and be happy.

The loss of the two A-50s plus the continued dwindling of the air defenses will make the arrival of the F-16's real interesting later this summer. There is a major chance that we end up with a "split" in how the war is going where Ukraine is dominating the air in Crimea and using that to support a leapfrog advance in Crimea while seeing in effect a "wall" of air defense N/E of Melitopol.  At the same time you could see a concerted Russian push towards Slovainsk and continued pressure toward Kharkiv.  How both sides react to this will be very telling. The real thing people need to understand is that if the arrivals of the F-16s doesn't radically change the goings on in the overall theater, I am not sure we will see any form of resolution to this in the foreseeable future.

I thought I knew all there was to know about strategic warfare after becoming Shogun MULTIPLE times on medium difficulty as a mere teenager, but some of you talk like you mastered the more complex Medieval and Rome Total War editions as well.

[NorthLoop 13929]

1 hour ago, KYHorn said:

More Indians killed in Russia. India has told Russia to stop recruiting its citizens, as many of them report bring tricked into fighting on the front line. I would've thought more countries would respond this way. Surely once they start dying this will backfire on Russia.

https://www.independent.co.uk/asia/india/indians-killed-russian-army-ukraine-war-b2561018.html

Two Indians killed fighting for Russian military in Ukraine

  Hide contents

Two Indian men recruited by the Russian army have been killed in Ukraine, India’s foreign ministry said on Tuesday.

India said further recruitment of its nationals by Russia would "not be in consonance" with their bilateral partnership and demanded a “verified stop”.

The ministry urged its citizens to "exercise caution" while seeking employment in Russia amid reports that dozens of Indians had been duped by agents into fighting for the Russian military.

"We regret to state that two Indian nationals recruited by the Russian Army have recently been killed in the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine," the ministry said in a statement, without identifying them.

Russia has not made a statement. Randhir Jaiswal, spokesperson for India’s foreign ministry, said Moscow has been urged to quickly discharge and ensure the return of Indian nationals working for the Russian military.

He said around 20 people had sought help to return to their country.

The Indian embassy in Moscow has pressed the Russian defence ministry for early repatriation of the mortal remains of the two victims, Mr Jaiswal said.

Two Indian citizens were also killed fighting in Ukraine in March.

Mohammed Asfan, a clothes seller from Hyderabad city had travelled to Russia via Dubai in November seeking work, and ended up with the Russian military in Ukraine. His family claimed he had been “duped” by an agent in the Middle East and did not know he would be fighting on the frontline, where he was killed.

Hemil Ashvinbhai Mangukiya from Surat city was killed in a Ukrainian air strike.

The Hindu previously reported that more than 100 Indian nationals have been recruited in the Russian military to fight in the war zones, with many of them conned by agents into working as “army security helpers”.

In May, Indian police arrested four people allegedly linked to an international human trafficking ring involved in tricking workers into fighting in the Ukraine war by offering them lucrative jobs.

 

Dance with the devil.... 

[Zonahorn 7921]

 

[KYHorn 16707]

34 minutes ago, Zonahorn said:

 

There's some mixed reporting on the numbers, with some saying 2 of each. I think this reflects the current understanding: 

 Map from yesterday: 

 

[Nivek 16665]

The HIMARs have been so successfully implemented I almost think they are being run by US operatives at this point.    

[utee94 15708]

20 minutes ago, Nivek said:

The HIMARs have been so successfully implemented I almost think they are being run by US operatives at this point.    

No WAI we'd do that.  Must be some independent consultants of unknown nationality...

[Bevo 13436]

3 minutes ago, utee94 said:

No WAI we'd do that.  Must be some independent consultants of unknown nationality...

I assume that it is all automated. They get the coordinates from our satellites and then someone in the field enters those coordinates.

[Laxtonto 11875]

So in the last two week or so, I can think of 8-10 reports of attacks on various air defense systems in the Crimea. There is just no way that those attacks are not tied to some sort of operational strategy.

Targets generally aren't just picked because of "reasons". So unless the AD sites just keep coming up on the target of opportunity lists (which is an interesting suggestion but with the limited number of ATCAMS that can be fired I would expect other targets to emerge) due to the lack of additional strategic alternatives and AD's cost and limited replaceability, this has to have an operational objective. There is only a finite supply of ATCAMS ammo and if an objective is targeted then that launcher is in effect out of commission until it can move and reload. That would imply that the opportunity cost of the time availability of the system is worth the target. The only way that makes sense is that targeting the AD is a strategic priority vs any other target of opportunity or potential counter battery support.

The funny part is that the only reason to hammer Russian air defenses is that they are being successful in countering the various long-range missile platforms being employed by Ukraine or they need the air defenses in the Crimea gone to progress to the next strategic objective.

To me, all signs point to the f16s being used to hammer north and western Crimea and as they diminish the AD umbrella, use the f16s to provide cover for a largescale river crossing from Kherson. Look at the map in @KYHorn tweet. Notice where those AD's are. Using a 120 km arc from those air defenses put an effective engagement range just north of Kherson. If you keep rolling those AD's back, then you make it that much easier to mass the troops and supplies for a major river crossing.

 

I would expect to see reports next of targeting of command and control targets in the northern Crimea, and then lots of reports of the massive use of artillery around Kherson. Then once the f16s arrive in mass a major move to hop the river and start the taking of Crimea.

[Captainant 26902]

29 minutes ago, Nivek said:

The HIMARs have been so successfully implemented I almost think they are being run by US operatives at this point.    

I'd bet they're definitely getting targeting intel from the US which is amping up their effectiveness, but as for operating em, shit even @atomheartbevo could operate em so it cant be that hard

[InkaUtexas 24932]

There are a few companies recruiting for HIMARS and Patriot "SME's" for assignment to the training facility in Romania.

[Parliament 13997]

Yeah you gotta believe they think they can take out enough Russian radar that F16’s will be able to do F16 things unmolested.

[Pescado_Rojo 19235]

1 hour ago, Laxtonto said:

So in the last two week or so, I can think of 8-10 reports of attacks on various air defense systems in the Crimea. There is just no way that those attacks are not tied to some sort of operational strategy.

Targets generally aren't just picked because of "reasons". So unless the AD sites just keep coming up on the target of opportunity lists (which is an interesting suggestion but with the limited number of ATCAMS that can be fired I would expect other targets to emerge) due to the lack of additional strategic alternatives and AD's cost and limited replaceability, this has to have an operational objective. There is only a finite supply of ATCAMS ammo and if an objective is targeted then that launcher is in effect out of commission until it can move and reload. That would imply that the opportunity cost of the time availability of the system is worth the target. The only way that makes sense is that targeting the AD is a strategic priority vs any other target of opportunity or potential counter battery support.

The funny part is that the only reason to hammer Russian air defenses is that they are being successful in countering the various long-range missile platforms being employed by Ukraine or they need the air defenses in the Crimea gone to progress to the next strategic objective.

To me, all signs point to the f16s being used to hammer north and western Crimea and as they diminish the AD umbrella, use the f16s to provide cover for a largescale river crossing from Kherson. Look at the map in @KYHorn tweet. Notice where those AD's are. Using a 120 km arc from those air defenses put an effective engagement range just north of Kherson. If you keep rolling those AD's back, then you make it that much easier to mass the troops and supplies for a major river crossing.

 

I would expect to see reports next of targeting of command and control targets in the northern Crimea, and then lots of reports of the massive use of artillery around Kherson. Then once the f16s arrive in mass a major move to hop the river and start the taking of Crimea.

Once the F16s have some room to roam, we need to give them JASSMs and really extend their range. 

[Handcruser 2801]

I remember talking to a customer in the gun store back in late 22.

He was on leave. I asked from where and he said “officially poland”.

He was in Ukraine.

[Laxtonto 11875]

36 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

Once the F16s have some room to roam, we need to give them JASSMs and really extend their range. 

Well.... Poland bought 2k JASSMs recently and nobody is sure if any has or has not been sent to the Ukraine. The 400km version would make things real tough for Belbeck and Sevastopol. The 1000km version would be overkill for the Crimea.

 

Working your way through how this would work is not a super crazy exercise. Use the live map and then work backward to determine the max engagement range based on some simple criteria:

Flight paths be over over the Black Sea for a much as possible to limit MANPADS and other groundbased ADs.

AD's for the S300 and S400 have a functional engagement range of 120km. Yes, they can engage from a further distance but at a much lower effectiveness. This implies that 120km from the the entire coast of Crimea would put the f16s at risk.

F16s are being based at an airfield N of Odessa

F16s are on an 800km max range (without inflight refueling or auxiliary fuel tanks). Yes, there are options to expand the range, but this is all about initial conservative estimates.

You can then find a reasonable launch point and draw a 350km circle around it and there is your new set of viable targets. Based on this simple math you can even hit the Kerch bridge (which would be right on the edge of several of the arcs for the max range of the f16s, shore-based AD, and JASSM 400km range).

 

By effectively running the Black Sea fleet out of the western half of the Black Sea, you now have a much broader area for launch points that make this exercise much more interesting. The big holdback would be if Russia could establish and maintain ADs west of E97 in NW Crimea (the peninsula directly south of Kherson) and west of H05 towards Mayak  (where funny enough 2 AD sites were hit yesterday).  Clean that up and you can get well south of the southern tip of the Crimea and still be outside of the 120km AD range and no worry about ship to air AD systems.

 

 

 

Edited June 12 by Laxtonto

[atomheartbevo 88912]

1 hour ago, Captainant said:

I'd bet they're definitely getting targeting intel from the US which is amping up their effectiveness, but as for operating em, shit even @atomheartbevo could operate em so it cant be that hard

Hahah, I was out by the time HIMARS officially entered service, but they were based on the M270/MLRS which I was familiar with (we were still in a Cold War mindset fixated on heavy stuff slugging it out in Europe) and I did see some HIMARS test/pre-production units. I would imagine that they are very easy to operate given the advances since I was in, and my specialty can now be done by someone flying a cheap drone instead of plotting stuff out on a paper map and radioing coordinates in.

The target selection process is probably very simple here in 2024 - we had multiple steps that nowadays would be automated and much more idiot-proof.  We maybe feeding them satellite coordinates, and I’m sure we are, but the HIMARS guys probably have drone spotters passing coordinates and photos to the target selection folks.

I do think @Laxtonto is right - the target selection folks seem to be going after air defense that Russia can’t easily replace. I have a bias towards paying attention to artillery-related stuff and I’ve noticed they are being extremely effective with ATACMS, which means Russia air defenses are definitely degraded if they can’t intercept them.

[KYHorn 16707]

Whoa boy... There's gotta be a better way to do this

 

Edited June 12 by KYHorn

[Schulz2.0 28626]

5 hours ago, hookem2010 said:

I thought I knew all there was to know about strategic warfare after becoming Shogun MULTIPLE times on medium difficulty as a mere teenager, but some of you talk like you mastered the more complex Medieval and Rome Total War editions as well.

[MillerEP 30270]

https://apnews.com/article/armenia-russia-csto-security-alliance-2968d29f8fe97a1be8d1a952a1d2ebb8

Armenian leader announces plan to leave Russia-dominated security alliance as ties with Moscow sour

 

[InkaUtexas 24932]

4 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

https://apnews.com/article/armenia-russia-csto-security-alliance-2968d29f8fe97a1be8d1a952a1d2ebb8

Armenian leader announces plan to leave Russia-dominated security alliance as ties with Moscow sour

 

Turk intel right now.

[bolverk 29035]

3 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

https://apnews.com/article/armenia-russia-csto-security-alliance-2968d29f8fe97a1be8d1a952a1d2ebb8

Armenian leader announces plan to leave Russia-dominated security alliance as ties with Moscow sour

 

They live in a pretty rough neighborhood with Turkey to the west and Azerbaijan to the east. Curious to see who they'll go to for security assistance: NATO or Iran.

[InkaUtexas 24932]

Just now, bolverk said:

They live in a pretty rough neighborhood with Turkey to the west and Azerbaijan to the east. Curious to see who they'll go to for security assistance: NATO or Iran.

Maybe Malawi can send an airplane. Oh wait.

[bolverk 29035]

1 minute ago, InkaUtexas said:

Maybe Malawi can send an airplane. Oh wait.

Iran might be running out of choppers, too, for that matter.

[InkaUtexas 24932]

I think they go NATO or take chinese bribes, I mean loans, and get deeper into Silk Road.

[bolverk 29035]

4 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

I think they go NATO or take chinese bribes, I mean loans, and get deeper into Silk Road.

They could also go the bilateral route and get security guarantees from individual Euro countries. I vaguely recall Macron signing some papers with Armenia a couple of months ago right after they lost that exclave to Azerbaijan.

[Viper 11948]

1 hour ago, bolverk said:

They live in a pretty rough neighborhood with Turkey to the west and Azerbaijan to the east. Curious to see who they'll go to for security assistance: NATO or Iran.

It's like it's 58 CE again.

[Schulz2.0 28626]

[AUS-97HORN 11550]

sheeeit

 

if it was an American led air assault every fucking command and control station from the Finnish border to the Georgian border would have been wiped out simultaneously.   tomahawks from our subs in the Baltic, Mediterranean and maybe even from the Artic if they are clear of ice would launch.

and the Turkish air bases would have most likely had planes loaded and launched as well. 

The one thing our military did ad nasuem due to the "defend a 2-front war policy" was the philosophy of:

Why buy one when you can get two at twice the price?" 

 

we have more than double the amount of conventional missiles needed to basically wipe out every Russian base on the European continent, and the rest could take out the Asian continent ones as well. 

[Parliament 13997]

29 minutes ago, AUS-97HORN said:

sheeeit

 

if it was an American led air assault every fucking command and control station from the Finnish border to the Georgian border would have been wiped out simultaneously.   tomahawks from our subs in the Baltic, Mediterranean and maybe even from the Artic if they are clear of ice would launch.

and the Turkish air bases would have most likely had planes loaded and launched as well. 

The one thing our military did ad nasuem due to the "defend a 2-front war policy" was the philosophy of:

Why buy one when you can get two at twice the price?" 

 

we have more than double the amount of conventional missiles needed to basically wipe out every Russian base on the European continent, and the rest could take out the Asian continent ones as well. 

What about American "volunteers" faking their best Ukrainian accent?  You gotta believe there are some freedom-loving, Russia hating American AF/naval pilots who would cuss in front of their mother to get in a Ukrainian F16 and go fuck shit up.

[InkaUtexas 24932]

I worked in Bosnia. I can fake it. May I go? We got any $$$$ in NIL for that?

[Parliament 13997]

I got about tree fiddy.

[InkaUtexas 24932]

1 minute ago, Parliament said:

I got about tree fiddy.

Deal. I take payment in Shiner.

[PTINS 3419]

1 hour ago, Schulz2.0 said:

Read the NOELREPORTS post, some funny comments in there ...

S-500, from Wiki -

The S-500 Prometheus, is a Russian surface-to-air missile/anti-ballistic missile system supplementing the S-400 and the A-235 ABM missile system. The S-500 was developed by the Almaz-Antey Air Defence Concern. Initially planned to be in production by 2014, the first unit entered service in 2021 with the 15th Air Army.  Russia claims that the S-500 is capable of intercepting all types of modern hypersonic weapons; and has claimed to have successfully tested such capability. 

In May 2018, Russia conducted the longest range surface-to-air missile test to date with the S-500. According to reports citing unnamed sources familiar with U.S. intelligence on the program, the S-500 was able to hit a target 482 km (300 mi) away, which is 80 km further than the previous record.

The first S-500 prototype went on combat duty in Moscow on 13 October 2021. However, it did not yet meet the full set of requirements specified by its operator, the 1st Special Purpose Air and Missile Defense Army.

Type                    Mobile surface-to-air missile
Place of origin    The Russian Federation
In service            16 September 2021
Used by               Russian Space Forces
Designer              Almaz-Antey
Manufacturer       Almaz-Antey
Unit cost              $2.5 billion? (that's with a "B")
Produced             2021–present
No. built               1 S-500 regiment in service 

From 1 of the references ...

Where is Russia’s S-500 air defense system? - By Maxim Starchak, Oct 5, 2023

MOSCOW — In late August, Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu traveled to a factory of air defense systems manufacturer Almaz-Antey to inspect its artillery production, emphasizing to the company the importance of round-the-clock work, according to state-run news agency Sputnik.

During the more recent tour, Shoigu and the head of Almaz-Antey emphasized the effectiveness of the S-300, S-350 and S-400 air defense systems amid Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. However, there was no mention of the more advanced S-500 Prometheus air defense system.

As far back as 2018, President Vladimir Putin called for the mass production of the S-500. However, its manufacturer appears behind.

According to Michael Jerdev, a Russia military expert, international sanctions levied against the country may be negatively impacting work on the air defense system.

“Russia can multiply the production of air defense missiles, primarily missiles of the 48N6 family, as they are technological products with minimal dependence on foreign components,” said Jerdev, referring to the primary missile series for the S-400. “As for the production of anti-aircraft complexes and radars themselves, their production has a long cycle and depends on the supply of foreign electronic components, which obviously does not allow them to be produced around the clock.”

Furthermore, an Almaz-Antey employee said, the company is experiencing “problems with machine tools and a shortage of components.”

“The enterprise’s [production rate] has increased,” the source told Defense News on the condition of anonymity to speak freely, but “there are not enough workers.”

Developing aerospace defense capabilities has been a major component of Russia’s State Armament Program since 2020.

The program is meant to lead to the deployment of 100 battalions, which include 800 launchers made up of S-350, S-400 and S-500 systems. Under the latest iteration of Russia’s State Armament Program, also known as GPV-2027, funds are to go toward the production of the S-500 Prometheus. The previous iteration, GPV-2020, laid out efforts to create, produce and maintain military equipment.

Russia began developing the S-500 in 2010, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, which tracks the status of air and missile defense systems. In 2011, Russia unveiled plans for two new plants to produce the S-500; they opened in 2016. According to Russian media, one S-500 system would cost an estimated $700 million to $800 million in 2020, and up to $2.5 billion dollars in 2023.

[InkaUtexas 24932]

So they had 1 and it is gone?

[Bevo 13436]

9 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

So they had 1 and it is gone?

[Pato del Muerto 52035]

On 6/11/2024 at 3:16 AM, Schulz2.0 said:

 

 

 

I realize we can use this gif about every third post, but it’s good to put it out there every so often.