Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[Braff Zacklin 13289]

24 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

It is literally one of the poorest countries in the world 

 

23 minutes ago, Bevo said:

We have tons of Nepalese in our military, not to mention our 7-Elevens. I see probably 5 from Nepal in our military to every 1 from India.

3 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Say what you will, we fucking love Nepalese food at our house. A restaurant has to be a better choice than “meat shield.”

Believe it or not, there's a growing Nepalese community in this little corner of Idaho in which I live. Former co-worker is from Kathmandu. It took him nearly a decade and more than $10,000 to become a US citizen. He now has an engineering degree and earns a six-figure salary working for Micron.

My post wasn't a critique on Himalayan cuisine or Nepalese culture. Just an attempt at dark humor based on a very sad reality.

[Chad Fuck 17301]

There is a very strong tradition in Nepalese culture of mercenary fighting. The British had a recruiting station in Nepal until just a few years ago.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gurkha?wprov=sfti1#British_Indian_Army_(c._1857%E2%80%931947)

[flatdawgs 1241]

I, for one, welcome the Gurhkas into our military.

[Orange&White 5497]

I'll tell you one thing to NOT do; don't try to order beef at a Nepalese restaurant. The waiter gets upset and the owner comes to your table and makes a scene to explain loud enough that everyone in the building hears that they have NO BEEF.

[Chopper 16347]

Namaste.

 

[WhatTheBuck 28604]

3 hours ago, Chopper said:

Radio Free Asia: https://www.rfa.org/english/news/korea/shells-03042024144934.html

Simple solution. Just buy twice as many.

[Armybrat 40527]

17 minutes ago, flatdawgs said:

I, for one, welcome the Gurhkas into our military.

I recall an Argentine commentary that it was “unfair” of the Brits to bring a detachment of Gurhkas to help kick ass in the Falklands War 40+ years ago.

[KYHorn 16707]

This makes a lot more sense. Well done.

Ukraine says it fooled Russia into striking fake planes and air defense systems with Iskander-M ballistic missiles

https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-says-fooled-russia-strike-fake-targets-iskander-missiles-2024-7

 

[Schulz2.0 28626]

 

 

[Chopper 16347]

Hopeful news out of France today

Yesterday

Today

[Pescado_Rojo 19235]

1 hour ago, Chad Fuck said:

There is a very strong tradition in Nepalese culture of mercenary fighting. The British had a recruiting station in Nepal until just a few years ago.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gurkha?wprov=sfti1#British_Indian_Army_(c._1857%E2%80%931947)

This Nepalese guy is/was in the SAS. This doc kicks ass, too. 

 

[Chopper 16347]

I won't turn this into a France elections thread. Just a confirmation of previous poll results.

Edited July 7 by Chopper

[BamaATL 16008]

58 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

This Nepalese guy is/was in the SAS. This doc kicks ass, too. 

 

I'm not really all that interested mountain climbing at all, but I watched this a few years ago and it was cool.   That dude's amazing.  

[Chopper 16347]

Details: Sources say that SSU drones are the cause of the fire at the LUKOIL-Yugnefteprodukt oil depot near the village of Pavlovskaya, Krasnodar Krai, where a large-scale fire could not be extinguished throughout the day on Saturday.

 

https://t.me/noel_reports/13936

Direct strikes on 3 of the 4 building adjacent to the track on the left. Video ends with 3 soldiers rushing toward the burning long, rectangle building apparently trying to save the dudes inside (or maybe trying to get away) - probably not possible to rescue anyone though.

Edited July 7 by Chopper

[Snake Diggity 4548]

5 hours ago, Chopper said:

here's The Economist article in full if anyone wants it https://archive.ph/K8se7  It's nothing great but it does have this addt'l info

 

Gotta figure ~1/5 of all working age males in Russia prior to the war have either been killed, wounded, or left Russia to avoid the war.

[BamaATL 16008]

7 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

Gotta figure ~1/5 of all working age males in Russia prior to the war have either been killed, wounded, or left Russia to avoid the war.

Got me curious, using some rounding and statistics from statista.com, I came to roughly 30% of the male population of Russia falls between the ages of 20 to 50.  Unfortunately, the math comes to roughly 21.6 million men of those ages that could possibly be mobilized.  So while it would be nice if 1 in 5 was either eliminated or unable to continue, the reality is its more like 1 in 20.  

That doesn't take into account the fact that most of these men are needed in other critical sectors that can't be mobilized, even if we halved that number to account from critical jobs and what not, the number is likely closer to 1 in 10.  That's certainly a lot, but likely not enough.  Unfortunately, the Ukrainians will need to kill or maim about 3 million more, in just a complete guesstimate by me, before the Russians are pretty much just completely out of manpower.  

[Sawbonz 26808]

11 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Got me curious, using some rounding and statistics from statista.com, I came to roughly 30% of the male population of Russia falls between the ages of 20 to 50.  Unfortunately, the math comes to roughly 21.6 million men of those ages that could possibly be mobilized.  So while it would be nice if 1 in 5 was either eliminated or unable to continue, the reality is its more like 1 in 20.  

That doesn't take into account the fact that most of these men are needed in other critical sectors that can't be mobilized, even if we halved that number to account from critical jobs and what not, the number is likely closer to 1 in 10.  That's certainly a lot, but likely not enough.  Unfortunately, the Ukrainians will need to kill or maim about 3 million more, in just a complete guesstimate by me, before the Russians are pretty much just completely out of manpower.  

Almost none over 40 are fit for service, even in a meat for the grinder role 

[BamaATL 16008]

6 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

Almost none over 40 are fit for service, even in a meat for the grinder role 

Well you can crazy glue any asshole to a motorcycle and turn it on.  

[Sawbonz 26808]

3 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Well you can crazy glue any asshole to a motorcycle and turn it on.  

Not if they have an MI first. Or go into a diabetic coma 

[bolverk 29036]

 

[Schulz2.0 28626]

1 minute ago, Sawbonz said:

Not if they have an MI first. Or go into a diabetic coma 

Or alcohol withdrawals.

[atomheartbevo 88913]

1 hour ago, Chopper said:

 

https://t.me/noel_reports/13936

Drone operators using drones against other drone operators?

[atomheartbevo 88913]

1 hour ago, BamaATL said:

Got me curious, using some rounding and statistics from statista.com, I came to roughly 30% of the male population of Russia falls between the ages of 20 to 50.  Unfortunately, the math comes to roughly 21.6 million men of those ages that could possibly be mobilized.  So while it would be nice if 1 in 5 was either eliminated or unable to continue, the reality is its more like 1 in 20.  

That doesn't take into account the fact that most of these men are needed in other critical sectors that can't be mobilized, even if we halved that number to account from critical jobs and what not, the number is likely closer to 1 in 10.  That's certainly a lot, but likely not enough.  Unfortunately, the Ukrainians will need to kill or maim about 3 million more, in just a complete guesstimate by me, before the Russians are pretty much just completely out of manpower.  

I wonder how many have stayed abroad after the million or so fled the original large-scale mobilization?  Those million or so were among their best and brightest that had the means to flee.

[Snake Diggity 4548]

1 hour ago, BamaATL said:

Got me curious, using some rounding and statistics from statista.com, I came to roughly 30% of the male population of Russia falls between the ages of 20 to 50.  Unfortunately, the math comes to roughly 21.6 million men of those ages that could possibly be mobilized.  So while it would be nice if 1 in 5 was either eliminated or unable to continue, the reality is its more like 1 in 20.  

That doesn't take into account the fact that most of these men are needed in other critical sectors that can't be mobilized, even if we halved that number to account from critical jobs and what not, the number is likely closer to 1 in 10.  That's certainly a lot, but likely not enough.  Unfortunately, the Ukrainians will need to kill or maim about 3 million more, in just a complete guesstimate by me, before the Russians are pretty much just completely out of manpower.  

I was assuming the number of dudes who fled the country to avoid getting drafted was a large multiple of the number of killed/wounded.  I pulled that out of my ass though.

[Sawbonz 26808]

The problem for Putin is when he has to start drawing from the ethnic Russians in metropolitan areas. 

[Chad Fuck 17301]

The problem for Putin is when he has to start drawing from the ethnic Russians in metropolitan areas. 

Does anyone have a sense of when that has to happen? Seems like he has a lot more outlier communities to destroy before he gets to the flower of the ethnic Russian heartland.

[General Specific 3152]

Not if they have an MI first. Or go into a diabetic coma 

Don’t care, one way or another, they gotta go!

[SquishMitten 10370]

25 minutes ago, Chad Fuck said:

Does anyone have a sense of when that has to happen? Seems like he has a lot more outlier communities to destroy before he gets to the flower of the ethnic Russian heartland.

Sucks for those outlying communities to lose all their sons and husbands, but at least they’ll get to live in a democratic Ukraine when all this is said and done since there won’t be anybody left to defend those territories. 

[Schulz2.0 28626]

https://apnews.com/article/womens-high-jump-mahuchikh-world-record-0195091009764c0ce03c851f750d0481

[BamaATL 16008]

1 hour ago, Chad Fuck said:

Does anyone have a sense of when that has to happen? Seems like he has a lot more outlier communities to destroy before he gets to the flower of the ethnic Russian heartland.

It's a great question, and it interested me, so I did a bit of googling and math.  If all that is accurate, approximately 26% of the country lives in rural areas (not necessarily ethic, but you get the point).  Strictly on that math alone, approximately 38 million people are rural.  If the numbers more or less hold (referencing my aforementioned demographic number of 30%) it would translate to a rough total of 5.5 million.  If you take half for critical sectors it would leave a pre-invasion population for this sort of usage at about 2.25 million.  If you assume that every casualty is directly rural/ethnic they would have approximately 1.5 million left prior to this pool of labor being exhausted.  

Unfortunately, that would also mean that the same level of troop casualties it would take approximately 4 more years before this human resource is completely exhausted.  So the solution is clear, give the Ukrainians more lethal aid so that they can exhaust this resource more quickly, because only then will Putin really start getting heat in Moscow, where it really matters.  If, for example, the Ukrainians had the ability to kill/seriously wound 100k per month, versus the 30k or so a month they are, things would move along.  I say all that while still having some level of empathy for at least some of these idiots, but if they are all to die, might as well make it quick rather than prolonged.  Additionally, it will undoubtedly save Ukrainian lives, both military and civilian.  I know a few ways we could up the ante in terms of lethal weapon support, and, in my opinion it's beyond time to give it.  

[Deej 76156]

2 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

I pulled that out of my ass though.

@NowThisdoes not approve.

[Bevo 13436]

2 minutes ago, Deej said:

@NowThisdoes not approve.

[Neonmoon 38126]

I would think Russians feel the economic pain before the manpower issue. 

[BamaATL 16008]

15 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

I would think Russians feel the economic pain before the manpower issue. 

This seems to be far more likely the scenario, in particular if we maintain the current level of weaponry.  The other benefit of upping the lethal aid would potentially be a battlefield victory.  If you could smoke 600k in 6 months, even with their ability to replenish troops, their is a good chance they wouldn't have the ability to do it quickly enough to prevent major advances.  

I somewhat keep holding out hope that this is on the way or already in place for a surprise from the Ukrainians; but I'm not holding out hope.  The thing I keep coming back to thinking about is the use of napalm glide bombs.  It's frowned upon internationally, but to my understanding not illegal either.  In my mind the F-16s arrive and it's a shock and awe of all the lines with a huge barrage of napalm (all 700 km, any concentration of Russian troops).  I've seen nothing that indicates this is even remotely in the works.  

[Indomitable 80]

1 hour ago, Neonmoon said:

I would think Russians feel the economic pain before the manpower issue. 

I think you're right. They're printing money to pay relatively big money to rural Russians to serve. That will have consequences eventually, along with sanctions. 

The bigger question is will Russians feel sufficient economic pain before Ukrainian manpower deficiencies become insurmountable?

[Parliament 13997]

2 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

I would think Russians feel the economic pain before the manpower issue. 

For hundreds of years Russians have proven themselves incredibly willing to eat and live in shit.  It might require literally collapsing their economy to make them stop.  And if that's what it takes, I'm down for it.

Quote

The bigger question is will Russians feel sufficient economic pain before Ukrainian manpower deficiencies become insurmountable?

At the pace we're at now, I don't think they will.  

Edited July 8 by Parliament

[Sawbonz 26808]

At some point the Muslim areas are going to start popping off. I assume that happens well before all the available men are lost to the meat grinder 

[atomheartbevo 88913]

4 hours ago, BamaATL said:

It's a great question, and it interested me, so I did a bit of googling and math.  If all that is accurate,

Not to go all Peter Zeihan, but I really wonder how accurate their population numbers are.  With all of their corruption, and with how many have left over the years (even before 2022-2023) I could see a lot of officials fudging numbers to get more funding, or at least maintain what they have.

3 hours ago, BamaATL said:

This seems to be far more likely the scenario, in particular if we maintain the current level of weaponry.  The other benefit of upping the lethal aid would potentially be a battlefield victory.  If you could smoke 600k in 6 months, even with their ability to replenish troops, their is a good chance they wouldn't have the ability to do it quickly enough to prevent major advances.  

There appears to be a lot of areas where their current offensive has culminated.

We know that what they are fielding now and what they are fielding in the next few years will not come close to what they were fielding in February of 2022 in terms of both trained and experienced manpower, but also vehicles.  Russia is still unable to maintain a 1:1 ratio in terms of replacing their T-72/T-80/T-90 tanks, even though they have ramped up their tank production a helluva lot. The OSINT folks look at the satellite photos of their tank bases/storage (because storing your tanks long-term in the open air in shitty Russian weather is what you should do) and are doing the math as well.  Lots of cannibalization of tanks for parts (makes sense, many tanks were stripped of parts that could be sold on the black market years ago)  

They maybe able to replenish their troops in the short term, but it really feels like we are headed towards them rolling out full tank troops or even squadrons of T-54/55’s. If they bother to have armor at all.

3 hours ago, BamaATL said:

 The thing I keep coming back to thinking about is the use of napalm glide bombs.  It's frowned upon internationally, but to my understanding not illegal either.  

Russians are using thermobaric weapons against civilian areas, so….

Edited July 8 by atomheartbevo

[BamaATL 16008]

16 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Not to go all Peter Zeihan, but I really wonder how accurate their population numbers are.  With all of their corruption, and with how many have left over the years (even before 2022-2023) I could see a lot of officials fudging numbers to get more funding, or at least maintain what they have.

There appears to be a lot of areas where their current offensive has culminated.

We know that what they are fielding now and what they are fielding in the next few years will not come close to what they were fielding in February of 2022 in terms of both trained and experienced manpower, but also vehicles.  Russia is still unable to maintain a 1:1 ratio in terms of replacing their T-72/T-80/T-90 tanks, even though they have ramped up their tank production a helluva lot. The OSINT folks look at the satellite photos of their tank bases/storage (because storing your tanks long-term in the open air in shitty Russian weather is what you should do) and are doing the math as well.  Lots of cannibalization of tanks for parts (makes sense, many tanks were stripped of parts that could be sold on the black market years ago)  

They maybe able to replenish their troops in the short term, but it really feels like we are headed towards them rolling out full tank troops or even squadrons of T-54/55’s. If they bother to have armor at all.

Russians are using thermobaric weapons against civilian areas, so….

As to the population and it's distribution, one thing that was interesting to me was that while 26% of the population of Russia is rural, approximately 80% of the Russian population is ethnic Russian.  Certainly distribution isn't entirely equal rural to urban, but it stood out as actually being a fairly reasonable assumption.  As to the veracity of the numbers, the point about it being potentially wildly inaccurate is very valid.  

In regards to the Russian's comparable capability to early in the conflict, that's certainly extremely valid. We've seen an uptick in casualty counts, likely having to do with exactly that.  It completely stands to reason that their losses of equipment is directly tied to their increased human losses.  Further, their capability to replace equipment certainly seems to lag well behind their need for it (hence the sat photos of disappearing ancient platforms).  

Interesting to me though, Putin has managed to do something that is equally despicable as it has been effective.  If the reality is that no one in Moscow or the other major metro areas is going to be really affected by the human losses (which as it stands right now appears very true), the best chance at internal dissent having any real power to cause him problems has been dealt with by sending men from potentially dissident regions into the conflict.  By using these men, he has in essence been ethnically cleansing is own population and leaving no real potential opposition in these regions.  All the men that might have done something are dead in Ukraine, or will be soon enough anyway.  In a sense, he's crushed much of what could have been his own internal problems.  

 

[atomheartbevo 88913]

1 hour ago, BamaATL said:

n regards to the Russian's comparable capability to early in the conflict, that's certainly extremely valid. We've seen an uptick in casualty counts, likely having to do with exactly that.  It completely stands to reason that their losses of equipment is directly tied to their increased human losses.  Further, their capability to replace equipment certainly seems to lag well behind their need for it (hence the sat photos of disappearing ancient platforms).  

The fact that we are seeing Bradleys running around and taking out Russian armored vehicles (even if they are APCs/IFVs with the occasional tank) in some of the areas means they are not worried about T-72s/80s/90s, nor are they worried too much about Russians with anti-tank weapons.

Three years ago, if we were told that Russia would full-on invade Ukraine, we would assume that the Russians would quickly establish air superiority as well as that they would be flooding the battlefield with the thousands of T-72s they had (and they were supposed to have another 7,000 in storage, but the OSINT folks are casting doubt on that).  The Russians are unable to push their aircraft into close-air support, and they can't run out large units of tanks without the Ukrainian drone and Javelin operators going into Nintendo Duck Hunt mode.

Putin can clearly continue to semi-quietly do large-scale mobilizations and throw a few hundred thousand men into the fray a few times a year, and yet none of us will be surprised if a future Russian offensive is carried out by men who went through a week of training and then are given Mosin–Nagants and T-55s.  I know we talk about quantity has a quality all its own, but the lethality of weapons has increased exponentially since Russia put that strategy into effect in WWII.

I don't see how Russia can establish the true local air and armored superiority that they need in the long run, no matter how many poorly-trained minorities and prisoners they call up.

 

[atomheartbevo 88913]

1 hour ago, BamaATL said:

Interesting to me though, Putin has managed to do something that is equally despicable as it has been effective.  If the reality is that no one in Moscow or the other major metro areas is going to be really affected by the human losses (which as it stands right now appears very true), the best chance at internal dissent having any real power to cause him problems has been dealt with by sending men from potentially dissident regions into the conflict.  By using these men, he has in essence been ethnically cleansing is own population and leaving no real potential opposition in these regions.  All the men that might have done something are dead in Ukraine, or will be soon enough anyway.  In a sense, he's crushed much of what could have been his own internal problems.  

Let's not forget killing off the prisoners or giving the survivors pardons for fighting.  That's a chunk of trouble-makers that are forever gone. And a bunch of the Wagner folks ended up in Syria or Africa, away from starting shit in Russia but still useful.

And let's not forget the million or so that fled Russia in 2022/2023.  Seemed dumb for him to let a lot of men who were of draft age leave, but in hindsight, anybody willing to flee Russia entirely rather than fight in his Special Military Operation was probably somebody who would be bribing local mobilization officers.  More importantly, they could form the core of an anti-war movement.  In their minds, the worst that could happen if they resisted mobilization was to be sent to Ukraine.

I do think there are limits for the minority groups though, and maybe some of the recent attacks in Russia are just a taste of what's to come. 

It's a weird thing when you look at the anti-war movement of the 80s against Afghanistan - that was heavily driven by mothers/wives/etc., but as far as I know, they weren't jailing those women who were rising up and drawing attention to what was happening.  Putin on the other hand, is making sure they all know that shit will go down if they start anything.

[butthurt 1504]

Fucking orcs

[Parliament 13997]

I'll go CR and say all these western nations with restrictions on attacking inside Russia are wrong and dumb.

[SurlyGator 822]

9 minutes ago, butthurt said:

Fucking orcs

This should be the image that shames every Western country into taking the handcuffs off for any military target in Russia.  I've got no problem with the US saying you can't retaliate by hitting one of their children's hospitals, but for a viable strategic target you may fire at will.

Edited July 8 by SurlyGator
Can't spell

[Snake Diggity 4548]

14 minutes ago, Parliament said:

I'll go CR and say all these western nations with restrictions on attacking inside Russia are wrong and dumb.

I’m mostly surprised the Ukrainians are abiding by it.  If I’m Zelensky, I’m fucking those bases up.  Anybody says some shit I send the video of the bombed out children’s hospital with a fuck you emoji.

Edited July 8 by Snake Diggity

[SurlyGator 822]

4 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

I’m mostly surprised the Ukrainians are abiding by it.  If I’m Zelensky, I’m fucking those bases up.  Anybody says some shit I send the video of the bombed out children’s hospital with a fuck you emoji.

Can't bite the hand that feeds him, especially before he gets the F-16's.

[Chopper 16347]

"Ukraine will respond."

[Schulz2.0 28626]

[BamaATL 16008]

Bombing a children's hospital is enough for me to say fuck it, let's dance; but I can be impetuous.  

[Schulz2.0 28626]