Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[Parliament 13,997]

More F16’s.  Give them a buncha F16’s.

[texastough 1,096]

I thought I heard lots of reports of Ukrainian soldiers praising the armor on the Bradleys, saving many lives from artillery and drone strikes

[BamaATL 16,009]

12 minutes ago, texastough said:

I thought I heard lots of reports of Ukrainian soldiers praising the armor on the Bradleys, saving many lives from artillery and drone strikes

They have been, but that is against the Russians and their tech.   That's sort of like me throwing glass bottles a locomotive.  

[blacklab 11,818]

There's a thread in CR if you want to discuss hypotheticals around elections and what president elects and congress will or won't do.

[texastough 1,096]

18 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

They have been, but that is against the Russians and their tech.   That's sort of like me throwing glass bottles a locomotive.  

I think you have it sort of backwards. The cheap Mavics and "basic radioshack shit" are blowing up infantry and non armored vehicles, not armor (for the most part). The proliferation of these cheap weapons is why Ukraine keeps asking for more armor.

[Schulz2.0 28,626]

https://defence-blog.com/russia-faces-artillery-barrel-shortage/

[Schulz2.0 28,626]

 

 

[Schulz2.0 28,626]

 

[atomheartbevo 88,913]

On 7/17/2024 at 12:15 PM, InkaUtexas said:

Really I think this is a way to pass down cash and keep those factory owners happy. These will not lead to some big break out. The artillery Ukraine has, even if limited, was designed to destroy MODERN Russian armor. The M1's 105 was designed to defeat these.

So there we go, we must have quite a few 105's sitting in armories around the world. Use them in close support? @atomheartbevo  I know the US had a doctrine at one point of mixed 105/155 batteries and we still have 105's in inventory. Thoughts?

We have always had 105mm guns (in their own batteries - we had mixed battalions), but I don’t know about the numbers - we used a lot of them (M119s) in combat since 9/11 as the airborne/air assault/light infantry units use them due to their mobility.

With that said, I don’t know if we have a lot in storage - first, they are licensed from the British (although they’d have no problem sending those in storage off to Ukraine).  Second we continue to use and upgrade them in active service, even if production stopped years ago, and we are a bit shy about sending stuff we actively use that isn’t in production.  And because of their nature, it’s not like an F-16 or Abrams where we are careful about who we send them to or where the customer base who could use them is limited - if we had hundreds sitting around that we weren’t saving for ourselves, we’d probably sell them off or donate them to plenty of countries.  But our 105mms are not in production so we would probably hold on to any extras we have around.

[Brisketexan 103,515]

One of the boy's sponsored artillery rounds, being packed up and delivered to the front:
 

[Dahobbs 17,180]

6 hours ago, blacklab said:

There's a thread in CR if you want to discuss hypotheticals around elections and what president elects and congress will or won't do.

🙄

[B00M 6,024]

8 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

🙄

Yeah … it’s probably for the best though given how the noobs just keep inexplicably finding this thread! It’s SO weird! 
 

[KYHorn 16,707]

 

 

Edited July 19 by KYHorn

[KYHorn 16,707]

 

Edited July 19 by KYHorn

[KYHorn 16,707]

Some info and debate of the costs/benefits of holding Krynky on the left bank of the Dnipro

The public response to Krynky has been absurd. I think the public lacks understanding of how many casualties occur in ukraine every single day. I'm not going to provide statistics, but losing 1000 men over 9 months is really not that bad. Especially in relation to the damage they inflicted.

 

[Parliament 13,997]

3 hours ago, KYHorn said:

 

Not great, not terrible.

[Gatorubet 29,538]

22 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:

https://defence-blog.com/russia-faces-artillery-barrel-shortage/

The US needs to give permission to use long range missiles to take this son of a bitch forging factory out.

[Schulz2.0 28,626]

 

 

[Schulz2.0 28,626]

 

 

[Chopper 16,350]

Some hope appears on the horizon

 

 

[RockyMountainHighHorn 886]

20 minutes ago, Chopper said:

Some hope appears on the horizon

 

 

Damn I love having polish blood.

[KYHorn 16,707]

This is why it is so important to have at least one FPV strike group for each battalion. 

Fighters of the 63rd brigade were almost surrounded during an unequal battle with the enemy. Fortunately, drone operators reached the fighters in time. 

Not every battalion has such a luxury... When you see donations being collected for drones, please remember this video and make a small contribution to save more soldiers.

 

[tx 3 putt 75,230]

 

😂😂😂😂😂

[tx 3 putt 75,230]

On 7/18/2024 at 3:28 PM, Brisketexan said:

One of the boy's sponsored artillery rounds, being packed up and delivered to the front:
 

 

[Schulz2.0 28,626]

 

[choripan 771]

10 hours ago, RockyMountainHighHorn said:

Damn I love having polish blood.

Sir, can I talk to you about your submarine's warranty? For example, did you know the screen door must be serviced every 5 years?

(1/2 Polish here...)

[tx 3 putt 75,230]

 

[Schulz2.0 28,626]

 

[Schulz2.0 28,626]

[Chopper 16,350]

6 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

Is that the entire thread? If not is there a threaderapp link someone would kindly post? Those who don't have a twitter acct can't see threads. TIA

Edited July 20 by Chopper

[RockyMountainHighHorn 886]

9 hours ago, choripan said:

Sir, can I talk to you about your submarine's warranty? For example, did you know the screen door must be serviced every 5 years?

(1/2 Polish here...)

Talk to me about hydraulics and you got yourself a deal. Throw in a pierogi and we’re friends. 

[MillerEP 30,270]

4 hours ago, Chopper said:

Is that the entire thread? If not is there a threaderapp link someone would kindly post? Those who don't have a twitter acct can't see threads. TIA

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1814284243465368063.html
 

 

Edited July 20 by MillerEP

[Schulz2.0 28,626]

The airfield that was hit:

[Schulz2.0 28,626]

 

 

[Kel Varnsen 8,312]

28 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

 

Give that guy a hand.

[atomheartbevo 88,913]

Random thoughts - I've seen lots of discussions about blackouts (hampered by a lack of parts when shit gets destroyed) and fuel rationing in Russia due to everything that Ukraine has been methodically wrecking - where does Putin ration the fuel and does he take power plant parts from Siberia to keep Western Russian cities powered?  Does he ration fuel in Bumfuck, Siberia so that Muscovites can still drive to the movie theater? He's rationing military-aged men in the outer parts of Russia as it is.

I don't see him rationing anything in Moscow/St. Petersburg.  Seems like he might be coming up on a point where he is rationing electricity and fuel to the very areas that are already paying a huge cost for this war.

There's also been some protests mentioned in @Schulz2.0's posts and elsewhere (other cities).  There are also Russian opposition leaders claiming that they are conducting various acts of sabotage like the various fires we've been seeing, that is being attributed to "smoking accidents".  They could be bullshitting, although there are certainly a lot of industrial fires in Russia, and even if they are bullshitting, it's going to ramp up Putin's paranoia..

Russian society has absolutely no way to let off any steam anymore from internal dissent/angst - there is no Politburo that can rein in Putin, and I doubt Putin will let another 700,000 - 1 million+ people flee mobilization.

Here's hoping Ukraine can keep up the strikes on Russian infrastructure.

[atomheartbevo 88,913]

Wall Street Journal Evan Gershkovich Sentenced By Russian Court To 16 Years In Prison (msn.com)

Putin is fucking around with us - he's having Evan Gershkovich thrown in prison for 16 years.

[General Specific 3,152]

Give that guy a hand.

[atomheartbevo 88,913]

4 hours ago, MillerEP said:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1814284243465368063.html

Damn.

Quote

First I am going to look at IFV/APC and here I can recommend a 'Google sheet' made available by @Jonpy99 who has done the counting. It shows that overall Russia has removed more (6756) than it has left in working condition (5781)

Being a bit over halfway may not seem that good. But if you look at the numbers, some equipment is almost all gone, MT-LBs in particular. These have been heavily used, on the front line. Equipment like BRDM-2 and BTR-60 & 70s still have lost left, but little of this old stuff is used on the front line.

Quote

The most important of the IFV/APCs are the BMPs. which you will see sit in the middle of the pack when it comes to how much has been taken from storage. But if we look at what @Jonpy99 has counted in more detail, we see of the remaining 1382 useable BMPs, most, (about 893) are the oldest BMP-1 and (about 650) are specialist artillery support vehicles. It is hard to be totally confident with satellite photos but perhaps only a few doses are BMP-2s or later.

Quote

This time I'm using data from @WarSpotting and I've created a chart of the % of each type of BMP lost each month. The BMP-3 is still in production about 140 made last year. the BMP-2s have been the most numerous, at least if you take losses as a proxy for use. Don't worry too much about July 2024, we don't have a full month's worth of data, but for almost a year the share of BMP-2s has been increasing, perhaps that's because they have been prioritising getting them out of storage, if they are now gone, that matters. It's also possible that Russia has been importing BMP-2s but I won't go down that rabbit hole now.

Quote

Showing that over half the total remains. but most of the best tanks are gone. All of the T-90s 3/4 of the T-80s and over half of the modernist T-72s. They used a slightly different way to grade the condition of the tanks, but again most of the tanks in decent condition have gone and most that remain are poor or worse.

Quote

Now we will come to artillery. This table is 6 months old but shows what has been taken. 5525 towed guns and 1489 SPGs. so a lot more towed. overall it's less than half but look at the pattern some types have hardly been touched M-46 130mm, while others like the 2A36 its over 3/4 gone. It's also harder to asses the conditions of guns from satellite photos

Quote

In the Economist article, it quotes my theory that perhaps some of the Twed guns have been removed to move their barrels to working SPGs. which I say based on the loss patterns, here again from @WarSpotting showing many more SPG losses than Twoed Guns. This is only a theory I, its possible that SPGs are easier to spot, hit, and photograph because they are generally bigger than towed guns. the visually confirmed losses may not match the proportions on the battlefield. Throughout the war, the losses of Artilly reported by the AFU have been much higher than the confirmed losses. and the difference is much more stark than with Tanks and IFVs. But as the proportions of losses are not changing much, it would suggest that barrel swapping might be happening, at least with some types

Quote

The article also mentioned ammunition, and I think this is most likely the overall limiting factor on Artillery, not Barrels. And I partly say that looking at the loss patterns again. Russia brought some calibers back into service like the 240mm 2S4 and the 152mm Gianstant, when they still had a lot of standard 152mm guns left. I think this was to use up that ammunition, and I think there recent decline is indicative of that ammunition now coming to an end.

Quote

Russia started with about 14-18 million artillery shells in storage. they were firing constantly over 20,000 a day and at times 60,000 a day, which uses up a lot. Especially when you add maybe a million shells lost in ammunition explosions. The article states Russia can now make about 2 million a year, which would be 5,500 a day, close to the 5,000 Russian fires on a typical day. 

Quote

@Jonpy99 @HighMarsed @CovertCabal @WarSpotting 14) Russia imported a lot of shells from North Korea that were in very bad shape late last year. Firing pore-quality shells uses up the barrel life, with a low probability of a hit, So I think that Russia would only have used them if there principle limiting factor was Barrels. 

Quote

15) Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), are another type of artillery, and Jompy has done a count of those in storage. Showing 3/4 and 2/3 of the main 2 types have gone. so quite high amounts, it's possible that MLRS will become another pinch point if the quoted numbers of new rockets made are accurate. but not yet.

 

[Parliament 13,997]

So maybe Ukraine can outlast these fuckwads?

[YGIFS 19,445]

16 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:

So like literally a Frank Dreben situation?"

 

[MillerEP 30,270]

https://www.threads.net/@kyivindependent_official/post/C9qzO1OsDyD?xmt=AQGzTWTxsYdXSiITw4Cuju8iQmQ0bFUAWxHQgZap1rJI5w

⚡️A quarter of Moscow's Il-76 planes failed due to low-quality parts, Russian media reports.Russia's Investigative Committee has opened a criminal investigation against the supplier of the failed wheel bearings.

https://www.threads.net/@kyivindependent_official/post/C9pP3Oqt8vD?xmt=AQGzTWTxsYdXSiITw4Cuju8iQmQ0bFUAWxHQgZap1rJI5w

⚡US is preparing new sanctions against China for supporting Russia's war efforts.The United States plans to impose new sanctions against Chinese entities that fuel Russia's war in Ukraine. Chinese banks may also be targeted.

 

 

[tx 3 putt 75,230]

Long past due !!!

 

[Parliament 13,997]

8 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

(It’s a trap.)

[PTINS 3,419]

19 hours ago, MillerEP said:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1814284243465368063.html
 

15 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Damn.

 

Thanks for posting the raw data on Russia's arsenal and summary of same. 

The early dialogue of Russia's 2nd Army of the world was shown to be a sham, given the disfunctional military organizational structure, quality of the "training", and the performance and technology of their military leadership and hardware. 

From a hardware perspective, Russia has ~ 1/2 of what they started with, with most of what they have left being the shit that was replaced 30-50 years ago, or longer. Golf carts & motorcycles v. Bradley's?  

The only positive from a Russian perspective is the 40-60 year old conscripts & replacements are already familiar with the weapons systems they trained on when they were in their prime.

  

10 hours ago, MillerEP said:

https://www.threads.net/@kyivindependent_official/post/C9qzO1OsDyD?xmt=AQGzTWTxsYdXSiITw4Cuju8iQmQ0bFUAWxHQgZap1rJI5w

⚡️A quarter of Moscow's Il-76 planes failed due to low-quality parts, Russian media reports.Russia's Investigative Committee has opened a criminal investigation against the supplier of the failed wheel bearings.

https://www.threads.net/@kyivindependent_official/post/C9pP3Oqt8vD?xmt=AQGzTWTxsYdXSiITw4Cuju8iQmQ0bFUAWxHQgZap1rJI5w

⚡US is preparing new sanctions against China for supporting Russia's war efforts.The United States plans to impose new sanctions against Chinese entities that fuel Russia's war in Ukraine. Chinese banks may also be targeted.

 

It appears the cumulative effects of sanctions and FAFO is finally starting to work, not unlike the Titantic's rudder. 

Russia's increasing reliance on China, and China getting their hooks ever deeper into Russia, is looking like a short term benefit with longer term FAFO implications.

I watched this YouTube video, Why Russia's Biggest Threat is Actually China, along with a few others. (Disclaimer; I watched them late at night w/ whiskey, after a day of being in the heat with cold beer, so I may be mixing my metaphors).

My recollection of the "facts":

I read The Bear and the Dragon, when it came out.

Russia and China are not friends.

The Crimean War impact on Russian's economy led to Russia selling Alaska to the US.

Following WWII, Russia ended up with Manchuria, lands that historically had been China. Russia's land grab cut off China's access to the Sea of Japan, leaving China with the South China Sea as it's only means to international commerce.

China is totally dependent on the Malacca Strait for access to Middle East oil.

Russia using the far east provinces to feed the Ukraine meat grinder is exacerbating what was already a 10:1 ratio of China v. Russia far east military resources.

So ... China needs and wants what Russia has, Russian's economy is in the dumper (other than oil & gas, its always been shit) and will be for a long time, China's economy is on the skids due to China being China, China is already dictating terms on Russian trade, Russian can't defend the far east,  ... it seems like a somewhat inevitable end point that Russia "sells" Manchuria back to China.

Fiction or fact?

Oh, I almost forgot. I came across this following the MillerEP link: 

The symbolism of a long appendage swinging between the legs, to the delight of a young lass.  

[Hook1997 5,239]

15 hours ago, Parliament said:

So maybe Ukraine can outlast these fuckwads?

Not as long as Putin is in power because he will just keep sending people to the meat grinder and you would think at some point Ukraine will run out of soldiers…. Putin has to go somehow within the next five years and the next person has to actually want to stop the bleeding of their economy.  

Edited July 21 by Hook1997

[tx 3 putt 75,230]

[Schulz2.0 28,626]

[tx 3 putt 75,230]

Russia needs to do everything possible to cut off American aide to Ukraine 

 

 

[atomheartbevo 88,913]

3 hours ago, PTINS said:

From a hardware perspective, Russia has ~ 1/2 of what they started with, with most of what they have left being the shit that was replaced 30-50 years ago, or longer. Golf carts & motorcycles v. Bradley's?  

Yeah, I respect what the OSINT people are doing, but all that time they spend looking at zoomed in satellite images and photos of train cars and looking at types of destroyed vehicles that have been documented, and all they had to do was look at videos of Russian soldiers being transported to their deaths in golf carts.

Could you imagine if we went to war with Mexico, and 30 months later we were barely advancing (putting aside the fact that it’s over two years later), we’re in fact losing territory we had taken earlier, and we were sending American soldiers and Marines into battle on fucking golf carts and motorcycles.